2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill
// BETTING PREVIEW - MARCH 5-8
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard
March 5-8, 2026 | Orlando, Florida
Miller
- Win:Tommy Fleetwood +2297
- Top 5:Nicolai Hojgaard +1075
- Top 10:Russell Henley +363
Kevin
- Win:Chris Gotterup +6131
- Top 5:Scottie Scheffler +124
- Top 10:Collin Morikawa +291
Andrew
- Win:Scottie Scheffler +474
- Top 5:Hideki Matsuyama +834
- Top 10:Keith Mitchell +547
Kcon
- Win:Rory McIlroy +1159
- Top 5:Scottie Scheffler +124
- Top 10:Jake Knapp +436
Parbeh
- Win:Rory McIlroy +1159
- Top 5:Collin Morikawa +624
- Top 10:Hideki Matsuyama +374
Scottie Scheffler presents exceptional value at +474 with a massive 17.3% model edge, leading the field in both SG Total (+2.89) and SG Approach (+1.08) while coming off a win in 2024. The ball-striking advantage continues with Si Woo Kim (+3471) and Collin Morikawa (+3309) offering strong mid-tier value, ranking #2 and #3 respectively in SG Approach with positive course fit adjustments. Among longshots, Harris English (+5090) stands out with a 21.5% top-10 probability despite 50/1 odds, while course history specialist Keegan Bradley (+8086) brings a +0.142 strokes course adjustment to the table.
Scheffler Massive Model Edge
Scheffler shows a staggering 17.3% model edge with 17.4% win probability versus +474 odds, leading the field in SG Total (+2.89) and SG Approach (+1.08). His 2024 API win and T4 finish in 2023 demonstrate proven course performance.
Scottie Scheffler
Ball-Striking Trio Undervalued
Si Woo Kim (+3471) and Collin Morikawa (+3309) rank #2 and #3 in SG Approach at +0.95 and +0.93 respectively, both with strong +0.064 and +0.070 course fit adjustments. Morikawa's runner-up finish in 2025 adds recent course confidence.
Si Woo Kim Collin Morikawa
English Longshot Value Play
Harris English at +5090 offers exceptional longshot value with a 21.5% top-10 probability and solid +1.31 SG Total. At roughly 50/1 odds, he's significantly underpriced for his statistical profile.
Harris English
Course History Specialists
Keegan Bradley brings the field's best course history adjustment at +0.142 strokes with +8086 odds, while Matt Fitzpatrick's +0.117 adjustment supports his +2600 price. Both have proven API track records.
Keegan Bradley Matt Fitzpatrick
Henley Hot Recent Form
Russell Henley won in 2025 and finished T4 in 2024 at API, carrying momentum with +1.32 SG Total and positive +0.024 course fit. His +4855 odds don't fully reflect his recent course dominance.
Russell Henley
McIlroy Decent Value Despite Struggles
Despite recent inconsistency (T21, T15 finishes), McIlroy's +1159 odds present 7.9% model edge with his #2 SG Total (+2.04) and strong T2 finish in 2023 showing course capability.
Rory McIlroy
Matsuyama Longshot with Upside
Hideki Matsuyama at +5140 combines solid +1.37 SG Total with 21.1% top-10 probability, offering legitimate longshot appeal despite longer odds. His overall game remains sharp.
Hideki Matsuyama
Lee Recent Form Concern
Min Woo Lee missed the cut in 2025 API and shows minimal course fit (+0.007), making his +4628 odds questionable despite ranking #8 in SG Total. Recent course struggles are concerning.
Min Woo Lee
Complete Betting Board
| # | Player | Why They Could Win | Win Odds GolfData API |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Scottie Scheffler
USA - OWGR #1
FAVORITE
|
The world's top-ranked player arrives red-hot after winning consecutive tournaments at the American Express and Hero World Challenge, showcasing the elite form that carried him to victory here in 2024. His Bay Hill track record is exceptional with four straight top-15 finishes including his 2024 victory and a T4 in 2023, proving he has the precise iron play and putting touch this demanding layout requires. As the world's top-ranked player, Scheffler's combination of recent momentum and proven course mastery makes him the clear favorite. |
+474 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T11
20241
2023T4
Win+474
Top 5+124
Top 10-158
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: T12 • Pebble Beach: T4 • WM Phoenix: T3 • The American Express: 1
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
17.4%
Top 10 Probability
61.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History+0.09
| |||
| 2 |
Rory McIlroy
Northern Ireland - OWGR #2
CONTENDER
|
The former world No. 1 has unfinished business at Bay Hill after his runner-up showing in 2023, demonstrating he has the game to conquer this challenging venue. His powerful driving and exceptional iron play are ideally matched to Bay Hill's demands, though recent finishes of T21 and T15 suggest he's still searching for his best stuff. McIlroy's track record of bouncing back with big performances when his back is against the wall could produce fireworks this week. |
+1159 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T15
2024T21
2023T2
Win+1159
Top 5+274
Top 10+140
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: T2 • Pebble Beach: T14
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
7.9%
Top 10 Probability
41.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.08
| |||
| 3 |
Tommy Fleetwood
England - OWGR #3
CONTENDER
|
The Englishman bounced back impressively with a T11 finish in 2025 after missing the cut the previous year, showing he's figured out the nuances of Bay Hill's tricky greens. His methodical approach and exceptional short game are perfectly suited to navigate the course's demanding second shots and sloped putting surfaces. Fleetwood's consistent world ranking position and proven ability to contend in big events make him a sneaky value play. |
+2297 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T11
2024MC
2023T61
Win+2297
Top 5+439
Top 10+206
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: T7 • Pebble Beach: T4
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.2%
Top 10 Probability
32.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+-0.00
| |||
| 4 |
Matt Fitzpatrick
England - OWGR #22
CONTENDER
|
Despite a disappointing T22 showing last year, Fitzpatrick's precise iron play and course management skills align perfectly with Bay Hill's premium on accuracy over distance. His recent stretch includes a strong T6 at the DP World Tour Championship and solid T8 at the RSM Classic, suggesting his game is rounding into form. The 2022 U.S. Open champion has the mental fortitude and technical skills to navigate Bay Hill's challenging closing stretch. |
+2600 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T22
2024MC
2023T14
Win+2600
Top 5+509
Top 10+239
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: T24 • Pebble Beach: T14 • WM Phoenix: 9 • The American Express: T63
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.7%
Top 10 Probability
29.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.12
| |||
| 5 |
Xander Schauffele
USA - OWGR #4
CONTENDER
|
The two-time major champion enters with renewed confidence after capturing the Baycurrent Classic in his most recent start, ending a period of inconsistent play. His exceptional putting and clutch gene under pressure are valuable assets on Bay Hill's tricky greens, though recent API finishes of T40 and T25 show he's still learning the course. Schauffele's proven ability to peak in big moments and recent victory momentum make him dangerous despite modest course history. |
+2851 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T40
2024T25
2023T39
Win+2851
Top 5+572
Top 10+273
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: T7 • Pebble Beach: T19 • WM Phoenix: T41 • Farmers Insurance: CUT
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.4%
Top 10 Probability
26.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History-0.06
| |||
| 6 |
Collin Morikawa
USA - OWGR #19
CONTENDER
|
The runner-up from 2025 returns with intimate knowledge of what it takes to contend at Bay Hill, having nearly captured his first victory here after missed cuts in 2023 and 2024. His world-class iron play is tailor-made for Bay Hill's demanding approach shots, and that breakthrough runner-up finish proves he's solved the course's puzzle. Morikawa's strong FedExCup position heading into the Masters suggests his game is in solid shape despite the recent Sony Open setback. |
+3309 |
Tournament History & Odds
20252
2024MC
2023MC
Win+3309
Top 5+624
Top 10+291
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: T7 • Pebble Beach: 1 • WM Phoenix: T54 • Sony Open: CUT
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.9%
Top 10 Probability
25.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 7 |
Si Woo Kim
South Korea - OWGR #42
CONTENDER
|
The Korean veteran arrives in excellent form with a T6 showing at the American Express, demonstrating the consistent ball-striking that has produced steady results at Bay Hill. His aggressive style and strong iron play suit the course's demands, with three straight top-40 finishes here showing growing comfort level. Kim's ability to go low when conditions are favorable makes him a live longshot if he can carry his recent momentum. |
+3471 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T19
2024T30
2023T39
Win+3471
Top 5+625
Top 10+287
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: T34 • Pebble Beach: T45 • WM Phoenix: T3 • Farmers Insurance: T2 • The American Express: T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.8%
Top 10 Probability
25.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History-0.07
| |||
| 8 |
Min Woo Lee
Australia - OWGR #45
CONTENDER
|
The explosive Australian bomber is still searching for the right formula at Bay Hill after missing cuts in 2025 and 2023, though his raw talent suggests a breakthrough could come. His prodigious length off the tee can provide significant advantages on Bay Hill's longer holes, while recent improvements in his short game have elevated his overall consistency. Lee's T14 at the Sony Open demonstrates he's finding his rhythm early in 2026. |
+4628 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T44
2023MC
Win+4628
Top 5+836
Top 10+382
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: T12 • Pebble Beach: T2 • WM Phoenix: T28 • The American Express: T38
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.1%
Top 10 Probability
20.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History-0.12
| |||
| 9 |
Cameron Young
USA - OWGR #20
CONTENDER
|
Despite a missed cut last year, Young's T10 finish in 2023 proves he has the firepower to compete at Bay Hill when his game clicks. His elite driving distance and improved iron play create a potent combination for attacking Bay Hill's challenging par-4s and reachable par-5s. The former Rookie of the Year contender is overdue for a breakthrough victory, and his recent steady play suggests growing maturity. |
+4731 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T36
2023T10
Win+4731
Top 5+836
Top 10+383
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: T7 • Pebble Beach: T55 • WM Phoenix: T41 • Farmers Insurance: T22
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.1%
Top 10 Probability
20.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.00
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 10 |
Russell Henley
USA - OWGR #5
CONTENDER
|
The 2025 champion returns to defend his breakthrough victory, having finally captured his first win at Bay Hill after years of close calls including a T4 in 2024. His precise approach play and exceptional putting were the keys to last year's triumph, skills that remain his calling cards on demanding layouts like this one. Henley's hot start to 2026 with top-12 finishes in his last two starts suggests he's ready to make another serious title run. |
+4855 |
Tournament History & Odds
20251
2024T4
2023T53
Win+4855
Top 5+813
Top 10+363
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: CUT • Pebble Beach: T19 • The American Express: T8 • Sony Open: T19
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.0%
Top 10 Probability
21.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 11 |
Harris English
USA - OWGR #11
VALUE
|
English's T2 finish in 2023 proves he can contend at Bay Hill when his iron play is sharp, and his current world ranking of 11th reflects the elite form needed to navigate this demanding layout. His T15 at the RSM Classic shows flashes of the precision required for Bay Hill's narrow fairways and penalizing rough. English's ball-striking capabilities align perfectly with what this Arnold Palmer-designed course demands from contenders. |
+5090 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T21
2023T2
Win+5090
Top 5+827
Top 10+366
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: T22 • Pebble Beach: T24 • WM Phoenix: T28 • Farmers Insurance: T22 • The American Express: T27
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.9%
Top 10 Probability
21.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 12 |
Hideki Matsuyama
Japan - OWGR #15
VALUE
|
Matsuyama enters as one of the hottest players on tour after winning the Hero World Challenge in a playoff and capturing The Sentry to start 2025. His meticulous approach play and mental toughness have produced consistent results at Bay Hill, including a T12 in 2024 that showcased his ability to grind through tough conditions. With two wins already this season and 100% cuts made, Matsuyama's current form makes him extremely dangerous on a course that rewards precision over power. |
+5140 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T22
2024T12
2023MC
Win+5140
Top 5+834
Top 10+374
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: T28 • Pebble Beach: T8 • WM Phoenix: 2 • Farmers Insurance: T11 • Sony Open: T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.9%
Top 10 Probability
21.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History-0.04
| |||
| 13 |
Jake Knapp
USA - OWGR #94
VALUE
|
Knapp's T11 at the Sony Open proves he's heating up at the perfect time, building on the breakthrough form that delivered his maiden PGA Tour victory at the 2024 Mexico Open. His aggressive style and improved course management could be well-suited to Bay Hill's risk-reward opportunities around the greens. The confidence from his first tour win combined with recent solid play makes him a compelling longshot for bettors seeking value. |
+5262 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T57
2023NA
Win+5262
Top 5+949
Top 10+436
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: 6 • Pebble Beach: T8 • WM Phoenix: 8 • Farmers Insurance: T5 • Sony Open: T11
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.9%
Top 10 Probability
18.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History-0.04
| |||
| 14 |
Ryan Gerard
USA - OWGR #30
VALUE
|
Gerard's sizzling T2 finish at the American Express immediately positions him as one of the form players heading into Bay Hill. His world ranking of 30 reflects steady improvement throughout his career, and his precise iron play could translate beautifully to Bay Hill's demanding approach shots. Without established course history, Gerard arrives with zero expectations but maximum confidence from his recent near-miss performance. |
+5625 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+5625
Top 5+951
Top 10+422
Recent Form
Cognizant Classic: T23 • Genesis Invitational: T28 • Pebble Beach: T45 • Farmers Insurance: T11 • The American Express: T2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
19.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History—
| |||
| 15 |
Kurt Kitayama
USA - OWGR #37
VALUE
|
Kitayama returns to the site of his stunning 2023 victory as a proven Bay Hill champion who understands exactly what it takes to conquer this layout. His triumph two years ago showcased the steady, methodical approach that Bay Hill rewards, grinding through tough conditions to claim his biggest PGA Tour win. Despite recent inconsistency, champions often rediscover their magic when returning to the scene of their greatest triumph. |
+5686 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
20231
Win+5686
Top 5+993
Top 10+447
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: T2 • Pebble Beach: T48 • WM Phoenix: T24 • The American Express: CUT • Sony Open: T40
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.7%
Top 10 Probability
18.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 16 |
Robert MacIntyre
Scotland - OWGR #6
VALUE
|
MacIntyre's elite world ranking of 6th reflects the high-level consistency needed to compete at Bay Hill, and his T11 finish in 2025 proves he can handle this course's demands. The fiery Scotsman's aggressive style and exceptional wedge play around the greens could be perfectly suited to Bay Hill's scoring opportunities. His T4 at the Sony Open shows he's already in strong form, making him a live contender despite longer odds. |
+6041 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T11
2024NA
2023NA
Win+6041
Top 5+1023
Top 10+450
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: T20 • Pebble Beach: T37 • The American Express: T38 • Sony Open: T4
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
18.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 17 |
Nicolai Hojgaard
Denmark - OWGR #81
VALUE
|
Hojgaard arrives with impressive international pedigree, including a 3rd place at Abu Dhabi HSBC and multiple top-15 finishes in major championships during 2025. His precise ball-striking and mature course management belie his age, qualities that could serve him well on Bay Hill's unforgiving layout. The young Dane's ability to contend in high-pressure situations, evidenced by his runner-up finish at the Betfred British Masters, makes him an intriguing sleeper pick. |
+6073 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023NA
Win+6073
Top 5+1075
Top 10+479
Recent Form
Cognizant Classic: T6 • WM Phoenix: T3 • Farmers Insurance: T22
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
17.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 18 |
Chris Gotterup
USA - OWGR #17
VALUE
|
Gotterup enters Bay Hill riding a massive wave of momentum after capturing the Sony Open for his third PGA Tour title, proving he's operating at peak performance. His stellar 2025 campaign already includes a win at the Genesis Scottish Open and a T3 finish at The Open Championship, demonstrating his ability to perform on demanding layouts. The 17th-ranked player in the world possesses the precise iron play and mental fortitude that Bay Hill champions require. |
+6131 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+6131
Top 5+1120
Top 10+504
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: CUT • Pebble Beach: T37 • WM Phoenix: 1 • Farmers Insurance: T18 • Sony Open: 1
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
16.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 19 |
Rickie Fowler
USA - OWGR #83
VALUE
|
Fowler's recent resurgence continues with solid finishes including a T8 at the RSM Classic, showing the consistent ball-striking that made him a perennial contender. His experience navigating pressure situations and strong iron play history could be valuable assets on Bay Hill's demanding layout. While he lacks a signature finish at this event, his current form trajectory suggests he's building toward something significant. |
+6203 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T36
2023T31
Win+6203
Top 5+1050
Top 10+462
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: T28 • Pebble Beach: T19 • WM Phoenix: T18 • The American Express: T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
17.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 20 |
Patrick Cantlay
USA - OWGR #27
VALUE
|
Cantlay's T4 finish in 2023 represents his best Bay Hill result and proves he can compete when his methodical approach matches the course's demands. His world-class putting and strategic course management have served him well in big moments throughout his career, qualities that could unlock success at this venue. Recent steady finishes including T13 at American Express suggest he's finding the consistency needed to challenge elite fields. |
+6552 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T31
2024T36
2023T4
Win+6552
Top 5+1047
Top 10+469
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: T37 • Pebble Beach: T14 • Farmers Insurance: CUT • The American Express: T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
17.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 21 |
Pierceson Coody
USA - OWGR #90
VALUE
|
The young American posted a solid T14 finish in his 2023 appearance at Bay Hill, demonstrating he can handle the demanding layout and pressure of Arnie's place. His steady approach game and improving putting stroke make him well-suited for a course that rewards precision over power. Coming in hot with a T18 at the American Express, Coody carries momentum from his strong desert showing into this week. |
+6734 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023T14
Win+6734
Top 5+1104
Top 10+488
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: T16 • Pebble Beach: T48 • WM Phoenix: T10 • Farmers Insurance: T2 • The American Express: T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
17.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 22 |
Adam Scott
Australia - OWGR #68
VALUE
|
The veteran Australian brings impressive recent momentum with top-15 finishes in back-to-back starts, including a T6 at the DP World Tour Championship that showcased his elite iron play. Scott's experience and ball-striking precision are perfectly matched for Bay Hill's demanding approach shots, even if his recent API results have been inconsistent. His timeless swing and course management skills could overcome any recent struggles at this venue. |
+6885 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T36
2024MC
2023T31
Win+6885
Top 5+1127
Top 10+497
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: 4 • Farmers Insurance: T30 • The American Express: T24 • Sony Open: T40
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
16.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 23 |
Shane Lowry
Ireland - OWGR #26
VALUE
|
The Irishman arrives as one of the most consistent API performers in recent years, following up a brilliant 3rd place finish in 2024 with a strong 7th place showing in 2025. Lowry's powerful ball-striking and exceptional short game are ideally suited for Bay Hill's challenging conditions and thick rough. His proven ability to contend at this venue, combined with his major championship experience, makes him a dangerous sleeper pick. |
+7060 |
Tournament History & Odds
20257
20243
202367
Win+7060
Top 5+1089
Top 10+473
Recent Form
Cognizant Classic: T2 • Genesis Invitational: T24 • Pebble Beach: T8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
17.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 24 |
Sam Burns
USA - OWGR #25
VALUE
|
The former PGA Tour winner has shown flashes of his best form recently with solid finishes at both the Sony Open and RSM Classic, suggesting his game is trending upward. Burns' aggressive style and strong iron play can thrive on Bay Hill's demanding layout when his putting cooperates. His T8 at the RSM Classic in November demonstrated he can still compete at the highest level when everything clicks. |
+7217 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T48
2024T30
2023MC
Win+7217
Top 5+1214
Top 10+538
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: CUT • Pebble Beach: T6 • WM Phoenix: CUT • The American Express: T27
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
15.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 25 |
Justin Rose
England - OWGR #10
VALUE
|
The world No. 10 bounced back from consecutive missed cuts with an excellent T8 finish at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational, proving he can still compete at Bay Hill when his game is sharp. Rose's methodical approach and elite iron play are perfectly matched for this venue's premium on precision and course management. Despite the early American Express stumble, his proven track record and recent API success make him a compelling value play. |
+7226 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T8
2024MC
2023MC
Win+7226
Top 5+1202
Top 10+538
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: CUT • Pebble Beach: T37 • Farmers Insurance: 1 • The American Express: CUT
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
15.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 26 |
Maverick McNealy
USA - OWGR #23
VALUE
|
McNealy enters with outstanding momentum from an incredible 2025 season that featured four runner-up finishes, including a Genesis Invitational 2nd that showcased his elite ball-striking under pressure. His consistent approach game and steady putting make him well-suited for Bay Hill's demanding conditions, even without extensive course history. The 23rd-ranked player in the world has clearly elevated his game to contention level and represents excellent value at these odds. |
+7253 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+7253
Top 5+1138
Top 10+501
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: CUT • Pebble Beach: T29 • WM Phoenix: T13 • Farmers Insurance: 10 • Sony Open: T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
16.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History-0.06
| |||
| 27 |
Viktor Hovland
Norway - OWGR #14
VALUE
|
The Norwegian superstar arrives with tremendous momentum after capturing his most recent victory at the Valspar Championship, proving his game has returned to elite level. Hovland's precise iron play and improved putting stroke are perfectly suited for Bay Hill's demanding approach shots and slick greens. His T10 finish in 2023 at this venue, combined with his recent win and consistent international form, makes him a serious contender despite the modest odds. |
+7317 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T36
2023T10
Win+7317
Top 5+1156
Top 10+504
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: T41 • Pebble Beach: T58 • WM Phoenix: T10
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
16.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 28 |
Ben Griffin
USA - OWGR #8
VALUE
|
The world No. 8 brings elite credentials and solid recent form with back-to-back top-25 finishes at the American Express and Sony Open, showing his game is in good shape. Griffin's T14 finish in 2023 at Bay Hill demonstrated he can handle the course's challenges with his precise ball-striking and steady short game. His combination of world ranking, recent form momentum, and proven API course history makes him an intriguing value pick at these generous odds. |
+7419 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T45
2024NA
2023T14
Win+7419
Top 5+1118
Top 10+473
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: T41 • Pebble Beach: T37 • WM Phoenix: T28 • The American Express: T24 • Sony Open: T19
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
17.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 29 |
Keith Mitchell
USA - OWGR #-
VALUE
|
Mitchell enters without API course history but brings the type of power game that can thrive at Bay Hill when conditions firm up. His ball-striking ability off the tee gives him advantages on the longer par-4s, while his improving short game has shown flashes of tour-level precision. The veteran has demonstrated he can peak at the right moments, and these generous odds reflect a player capable of surprising when everything clicks. |
+7723 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+7723
Top 5+1247
Top 10+547
Recent Form
Cognizant Classic: T6 • Pebble Beach: T52 • WM Phoenix: T41 • Farmers Insurance: T11 • The American Express: T44
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
15.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History+0.09
| |||
| 30 |
Keegan Bradley
USA - OWGR #16
VALUE
|
Bradley brings excellent course history with a T5 finish at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational and a T10 showing in 2023, proving he thrives on Bay Hill's challenging layout. The world No. 16's aggressive putting style and clutch gene under pressure make him dangerous when he gets into contention at this venue. His consistent API performances, combined with solid recent form including a T18 at the RSM Classic, suggest he's primed for another strong showing. |
+8086 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T5
2024T36
2023T10
Win+8086
Top 5+1325
Top 10+581
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: CUT • Pebble Beach: T29 • Farmers Insurance: T43 • Sony Open: CUT
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
14.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.14
| |||
| 31 |
Ludvig Aberg
Sweden - OWGR #18
VALUE
|
The young Swede has found his comfort zone at Bay Hill with three consecutive top-25 finishes, including a T22 just this year that showcases his growing familiarity with the demanding layout. His world ranking of 18th reflects elite ball-striking ability that translates perfectly to this challenging course requiring precision approach play. Coming off strong finishes at the Hero World Challenge (3rd) and DP World Tour Championship (T6), Aberg has the momentum and game to break through for his first Arnold Palmer Invitational victory. |
+8142 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T22
2024T25
2023T24
Win+8142
Top 5+1236
Top 10+529
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: T20 • Pebble Beach: T37 • Farmers Insurance: CUT • The American Express: WD
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
15.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 32 |
J.J. Spaun
USA - OWGR #7
VALUE
|
The reigning U.S. Open champion at world No. 7 brings major championship confidence and elite form to Bay Hill, where his precise iron play should thrive on these demanding approach shots. His runner-up finish at The Players Championship proves he can contend at Florida's most prestigious events, while back-to-back T2 finishes earlier this year demonstrate his ability to close out tournaments. Spaun's combination of recent major success and consistent ball-striking makes him ideally suited for Arnold Palmer's challenging layout. |
+8187 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T31
2024NA
2023MC
Win+8187
Top 5+1285
Top 10+554
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: CUT • Pebble Beach: T45 • Farmers Insurance: CUT • Sony Open: T40
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
15.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 33 |
Jacob Bridgeman
USA - OWGR #63
VALUE
|
Bridgeman's impressive T15 finish in this year's event as his Bay Hill debut suggests he's figured out the nuances of this challenging layout quickly. The world No. 63 has been quietly consistent in recent starts, with his T4 at the Sony Open proving he can contend against elite fields. His methodical approach and steady iron play align perfectly with what Bay Hill demands from contenders. |
+8842 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T15
2024NA
2023NA
Win+8842
Top 5+1378
Top 10+587
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: 1 • Pebble Beach: T8 • WM Phoenix: T18 • The American Express: T13 • Sony Open: T4
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
14.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 34 |
Justin Thomas
USA - OWGR #9
VALUE
|
The former world No. 1 has a solid track record at Bay Hill with a T12 in 2024, and his world ranking of 9th indicates he's still operating at an elite level despite recent inconsistencies. Thomas's proven ability to peak at big events and his aggressive style suit Bay Hill's risk-reward opportunities perfectly. His T8 finish at the RSM Classic shows flashes of the form that made him a major champion, and Bay Hill could be where it all clicks again. |
+9515 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T36
2024T12
2023T21
Win+9515
Top 5+1557
Top 10+680
Recent Form
—
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
12.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 35 |
Corey Conners
Canada - OWGR #31
VALUE
|
Conners' third-place finish at this year's Arnold Palmer Invitational proves he has Bay Hill completely figured out, building on solid showings in 2024 (T18) and 2023 (T21). The Canadian's renowned precision with his irons is perfectly suited to Bay Hill's demanding approach shots and tight scoring windows. With three consecutive top-25 finishes at this event, Conners has established himself as a Bay Hill specialist who knows exactly how to navigate Arnie's layout. |
+10426 |
Tournament History & Odds
20253
2024T18
2023T21
Win+10426
Top 5+1608
Top 10+684
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: T37 • Pebble Beach: T70 • WM Phoenix: CUT • Sony Open: T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
12.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History+0.11
| |||
| 36 |
Akshay Bhatia
USA - OWGR #52
VALUE
|
Despite a missed cut in this year's event, the young American's world ranking of 52nd reflects his underlying talent and potential for big performances. Bhatia's aggressive style and fearless approach to challenging pins could pay dividends at Bay Hill, where risk-taking is often rewarded. His recent T23 at the Sony Open suggests he's finding his rhythm after some early-season struggles, and his youth and hunger make him a dangerous sleeper pick. |
+10730 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10730
Top 5+1596
Top 10+671
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: T16 • Pebble Beach: T6 • WM Phoenix: T3 • Farmers Insurance: CUT • The American Express: CUT
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
13.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.00
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 37 |
Sepp Straka
Austria - OWGR #12
VALUE
|
The Austrian's T5 finish at this year's Arnold Palmer Invitational represents a massive breakthrough at Bay Hill after struggling here in previous attempts. Straka's world ranking of 12th reflects elite-level consistency, and his proven ability to contend in big events makes him a legitimate threat to win. His steady iron play and improved putting stroke have transformed him into a regular contender, and Bay Hill now appears to be a course where he can thrive. |
+11264 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T5
2024T57
2023MC
Win+11264
Top 5+1760
Top 10+757
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: T50 • Pebble Beach: T2 • WM Phoenix: T18 • The American Express: CUT
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
11.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History-0.07
| |||
| 38 |
Alex Noren
Sweden - OWGR #13
VALUE
|
The experienced Swede at world No. 13 brings a methodical European approach that could excel on Bay Hill's strategic layout requiring course management and precision. Noren's consistent ball-striking and veteran savvy make him well-equipped to handle the pressure and wind conditions that often determine outcomes at this event. His T8 finish at the Hero World Challenge demonstrates he can still compete with the world's best when his game is sharp. |
+11876 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023T61
Win+11876
Top 5+1668
Top 10+690
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: T12 • Pebble Beach: T29 • Farmers Insurance: CUT • The American Express: CUT
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
12.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 39 |
Jason Day
Australia - OWGR #62
VALUE
|
The former world No. 1 has found renewed success at Bay Hill with a T8 finish this year and T10 in 2023, suggesting his experience and course knowledge are paying dividends. Day's proven track record in big events and his rejuvenated putting stroke make him a serious contender when he's healthy and confident. His runner-up finish at the American Express proves he can still close out tournaments, bringing dangerous momentum into an event where he's clearly comfortable. |
+12532 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T8
2024T36
2023T10
Win+12532
Top 5+1742
Top 10+712
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: CUT • Pebble Beach: T24 • Farmers Insurance: T38 • The American Express: T2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
12.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 40 |
Michael Thorbjornsen
USA - OWGR #72
VALUE
|
The young American represents an intriguing longshot play with his world ranking of 72nd potentially undervaluing his talent level and recent improvements. Thorbjornsen's college pedigree and fearless approach to challenging courses could translate well to Bay Hill's demanding test. His youth and hunger to make a breakthrough on tour make him the type of player who could surprise in a loaded field. |
+12748 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+12748
Top 5+1804
Top 10+769
Recent Form
Cognizant Classic: CUT • Pebble Beach: T78 • WM Phoenix: T3 • Farmers Insurance: T18 • The American Express: CUT
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
11.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History—
| |||
| 41 |
Nick Taylor
Canada - OWGR #51
VALUE
|
The Canadian ranked 51st in the world has shown he can contend at Bay Hill, posting a solid T12 finish in 2024 before following up with a T31 last year. Taylor's consistent ball-striking and proven ability to handle demanding conditions makes him a viable longshot at these generous odds. His steady presence in the world's top 60 reflects the type of reliable game needed to navigate Arnold Palmer's challenging layout. |
+12915 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T31
2024T12
2023MC
Win+12915
Top 5+1792
Top 10+719
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: T28 • Pebble Beach: T24 • WM Phoenix: T28 • The American Express: T27 • Sony Open: T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
12.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 42 |
Jordan Spieth
USA - OWGR #79
VALUE
|
The three-time major champion appears to be rounding into form after his lengthy wrist injury layoff, with encouraging finishes at Pebble Beach (T8) and Farmers Insurance Open (T11) in his limited action. Spieth's T4 finish here in 2023 demonstrates his comfort level at Bay Hill, where his elite short game and putting can offset any remaining rust. If his health continues trending upward, his proven clutch gene makes him dangerous at these inflated odds. |
+13383 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T30
2023T4
Win+13383
Top 5+1925
Top 10+787
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: T12 • Pebble Beach: T29 • WM Phoenix: CUT • Sony Open: T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
11.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.06
| |||
| 43 |
Sam Stevens
USA - OWGR #50
VALUE
|
The 50th-ranked player is riding momentum from an impressive T6 finish at the American Express, showing the type of form that can translate to success at demanding venues. Stevens improved significantly from his T40 showing here last year, suggesting growing comfort with Bay Hill's treacherous conditions. His current world ranking reflects a player capable of mixing it up with elite fields when his game clicks. |
+13952 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T40
2024NA
2023NA
Win+13952
Top 5+1795
Top 10+725
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: T16 • Pebble Beach: T55 • WM Phoenix: T35 • Farmers Insurance: T30 • The American Express: T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
12.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 44 |
Sahith Theegala
USA - OWGR #-
LONGSHOT
|
The talented ball-striker brings excellent recent form with a T8 at the American Express and another T8 at the RSM Classic, showing he's currently peaking at the right time. Theegala's precise approach play and improving putting stroke are well-suited to Bay Hill's premium on accuracy and course management. Without Bay Hill history to weigh him down mentally, he can attack this course with the confidence that comes from strong recent results. |
+15285 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+15285
Top 5+2103
Top 10+869
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: T22 • Pebble Beach: T60 • WM Phoenix: T18 • Farmers Insurance: T7 • The American Express: T8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
10.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 45 |
Nico Echavarria
Colombia - OWGR #-
LONGSHOT
|
The Colombian brings the type of international experience and battle-tested game that can thrive on demanding American layouts like Bay Hill. His steady rise up the professional ranks reflects a player with the mental fortitude to handle pressure situations and challenging course conditions. Without the burden of poor course history, Echavarria can approach this venue with a fresh perspective and aggressive mindset. |
+16116 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+16116
Top 5+2293
Top 10+930
Recent Form
Cognizant Classic: 1 • Genesis Invitational: CUT • Pebble Beach: T8 • WM Phoenix: CUT • The American Express: CUT
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
9.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 46 |
Matt McCarty
USA - OWGR #58
LONGSHOT
|
McCarty is riding significant momentum from his runner-up finish at the American Express, the type of breakthrough result that can propel players to bigger stages. The 58th-ranked player has shown he belongs competing against elite fields, and his aggressive style could pay dividends if Bay Hill's conditions allow for scoring. His recent T2 demonstrates he's currently playing at a level capable of contending in strong tournaments. |
+17757 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+17757
Top 5+2475
Top 10+987
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: T24 • Pebble Beach: T67 • WM Phoenix: CUT • Farmers Insurance: T18 • The American Express: T2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
9.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 47 |
Taylor Pendrith
Canada - OWGR #43
LONGSHOT
|
The powerful Canadian ranked 43rd in the world possesses the length and ball-striking ability to tame Bay Hill when conditions demand precision. Despite missing the cut here in 2025, Pendrith's world ranking reflects consistent high-level play that could translate to a breakthrough performance. His combination of distance and improving course management gives him the tools needed to compete on Arnold Palmer's demanding test. |
+19131 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023MC
Win+19131
Top 5+2408
Top 10+980
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: T45 • Pebble Beach: T34 • Farmers Insurance: CUT • The American Express: CUT • Sony Open: T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
9.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History-0.05
| |||
| 48 |
Max Greyserman
USA - OWGR #33
LONGSHOT
|
The 33rd-ranked player showed progress at Bay Hill with a T22 finish in 2025, demonstrating growing comfort with this challenging venue's demands. Greyserman's methodical approach and strong iron play align well with what Bay Hill typically requires from contenders. His top-40 world ranking reflects the type of consistent excellence that can produce a breakthrough week at the right venue. |
+20239 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T22
2024NA
2023NA
Win+20239
Top 5+2639
Top 10+1081
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: T24 • Pebble Beach: T37 • WM Phoenix: CUT • Farmers Insurance: CUT • The American Express: T56
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
8.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 49 |
Daniel Berger
USA - OWGR #53
LONGSHOT
|
The Florida native has shown encouraging signs of his old form with a T6 at the Sony Open and T8 at the Hero World Challenge, suggesting his game is trending upward after injury struggles. Berger's T15 finish here in 2025 proves he can handle Bay Hill's demands, and his local knowledge of Florida conditions provides an additional edge. When healthy, his precise iron play and clutch putting make him capable of contending anywhere. |
+20378 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T15
2024NA
2023NA
Win+20378
Top 5+2480
Top 10+981
Recent Form
Cognizant Classic: T32 • Genesis Invitational: CUT • Pebble Beach: T75 • WM Phoenix: T16 • The American Express: T56
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
9.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 50 |
Ryo Hisatsune
Japan - OWGR #-
LONGSHOT
|
The Japanese player brings a fresh international perspective to Bay Hill, where his precise ball-striking and methodical approach could prove advantageous on this demanding layout. Hisatsune's rise through professional golf reflects the type of dedication and technical skill that can translate well to challenging American venues. Without preconceived notions about Bay Hill's difficulty, he can attack this course with the confidence of a player ascending the professional ranks. |
+21027 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+21027
Top 5+2747
Top 10+1104
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: T45 • Pebble Beach: T8 • WM Phoenix: T10 • Farmers Insurance: T2 • The American Express: T44
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
8.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History—
| |||
| 51 |
Harry Hall
England - OWGR #54
LONGSHOT
|
Hall arrives at Bay Hill riding serious momentum after a T6 finish at the Sony Open earlier this season, showcasing the kind of consistent ball-striking that can thrive on this demanding layout. The 54th-ranked player has been quietly building his game throughout the season, and his precise iron play and improved putting stroke are perfectly suited for Bay Hill's premium on accuracy over distance. Without any prior baggage at this event, Hall can play freely and let his current hot form dictate the outcome. |
+23066 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+23066
Top 5+2557
Top 10+987
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: CUT • Pebble Beach: T24 • WM Phoenix: CUT • The American Express: T24 • Sony Open: T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
9.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History—
| |||
| 52 |
Sungjae Im
South Korea - OWGR #48
LONGSHOT
|
Im brings three consecutive years of solid Arnold Palmer Invitational finishes (T19, T18, T21), proving he understands exactly what Bay Hill demands from tee to green. His methodical approach and elite iron play are ideally suited for a course that punishes wild drives and rewards precision, while his strong short game can navigate the tricky greenside complexes that define this venue. The South Korean's consistency at this event suggests he's figured out the winning formula and just needs the putts to fall. |
+23522 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T19
2024T18
2023T21
Win+23522
Top 5+3047
Top 10+1230
Recent Form
—
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
7.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.10
| |||
| 53 |
J.T. Poston
USA - OWGR #56
LONGSHOT
|
Despite disappointing finishes in 2024-25 (T50, 55th), Poston's game profile matches Bay Hill's demands perfectly with his accurate driving and steady iron play keeping him in contention when conditions get tough. The former Web.com Tour grinder knows how to navigate pressure-packed situations, and his putting stroke has shown signs of improvement in recent weeks that could unlock his potential on these challenging greens. Poston's proven ability to grind out results makes him a live sleeper when the course plays difficult. |
+23710 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T50
202455
2023NA
Win+23710
Top 5+2985
Top 10+1136
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: CUT • Pebble Beach: T37 • WM Phoenix: T35 • The American Express: T38
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
8.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History-0.13
| |||
| 54 |
Ryan Fox
New Zealand - OWGR #41
LONGSHOT
|
The powerful New Zealander finished T14 here in 2023 and brings the kind of length and aggressive approach that can overwhelm Bay Hill when he's striking it cleanly. Fox's improved putting and course management have elevated his game to world ranking 41st, while his fearless style of play can generate the low rounds needed to chase down leaders on this high-scoring layout. Coming off strong European Tour form including a T15 at BMW PGA Championship, Fox has the tools to contend if his driver cooperates. |
+26806 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023T14
Win+26806
Top 5+3384
Top 10+1311
Recent Form
Genesis Invitational: T7 • Pebble Beach: T24 • WM Phoenix: T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
7.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 55 |
Joel Dahmen
USA - OWGR #-
LONGSHOT
|
Dahmen's everyman approach and steady ball-striking make him a perfect fit for Bay Hill's blue-collar demands, where grinding out pars and avoiding big numbers often trumps spectacular shotmaking. His recent T23 at the Sony Open demonstrates his short game and putting are in good form, two crucial elements for navigating Bay Hill's challenging scoring conditions. The Washington native thrives as an underdog and has the mental toughness to stay patient through the inevitable bogeys this course produces. |
+28471 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+28471
Top 5+3170
Top 10+1246
Recent Form
Cognizant Classic: T9 • WM Phoenix: CUT • Farmers Insurance: T7 • The American Express: T38
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.3%
Top 10 Probability
7.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History-0.03
| |||
Round 1 — 3-Balls
| Grp | Tee Time | Hole | Player 1 | Odds | Player 2 | Odds | Player 3 | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 07:40 | 1 | Joel Dahmen | -256 | Daniel Bennett | +391 | Tie | +1193 |
| 2 | 07:50 | 1 | Jhonattan Vegas | +158 | Tom Hoge | -107 | Tie | +936 |
| 3 | 08:00 | 1 | Billy Horschel | +152 | Ryan Fox | -101 | Tie | +897 |
| 4 | 08:10 | 1 | Patrick Rodgers | -161 | Brian Campbell | +246 | Tie | +965 |
| 5 | 08:20 | 1 | Max Greyserman | +129 | Matt McCarty | +115 | Tie | +917 |
| 6 | 08:30 | 1 | Andrew Putnam | +138 | Taylor Moore | +108 | Tie | +899 |
| 7 | 08:40 | 1 | Alex Noren | +110 | Daniel Berger | +135 | Tie | +912 |
| 8 | 08:50 | 1 | Min Woo Lee | -104 | Michael Thorbjornsen | +152 | Tie | +950 |
| 9 | 09:05 | 1 | Corey Conners | +111 | Harry Hall | +136 | Tie | +877 |
| 10 | 09:15 | 1 | Sepp Straka | +155 | Cameron Young | -103 | Tie | +890 |
| 11 | 09:25 | 1 | Harris English | +112 | Patrick Cantlay | +134 | Tie | +890 |
| 12 | 09:35 | 1 | Robert MacIntyre | -128 | Andrew Novak | +195 | Tie | +900 |
| 13 | 09:45 | 1 | Brian Harman | +160 | Akshay Bhatia | -106 | Tie | +885 |
| 14 | 09:55 | 1 | Justin Rose | +154 | Collin Morikawa | -104 | Tie | +933 |
| 15 | 10:05 | 1 | Shane Lowry | +148 | Xander Schauffele | +102 | Tie | +895 |
| 16 | 10:20 | 1 | Russell Henley | +242 | Scottie Scheffler | -157 | Tie | +935 |
| 17 | 10:30 | 1 | Adam Scott | -132 | Aldrich Potgieter | +195 | Tie | +972 |
| 18 | 10:40 | 1 | Keith Mitchell | +101 | J.T. Poston | +151 | Tie | +871 |
| 19 | 10:50 | 1 | Austin Smotherman | +176 | Nicolai Hojgaard | -118 | Tie | +932 |
| 20 | 11:00 | 1 | Bud Cauley | +226 | Si Woo Kim | -148 | Tie | +947 |
| 21 | 11:10 | 1 | Lucas Glover | +144 | Ryo Hisatsune | +104 | Tie | +904 |
| 22 | 11:20 | 1 | Jason Day | +148 | Ryan Gerard | +103 | Tie | +857 |
| 23 | 11:35 | 1 | Taylor Pendrith | +110 | Denny McCarthy | +137 | Tie | +887 |
| 24 | 11:45 | 1 | Kurt Kitayama | +119 | Pierceson Coody | +125 | Tie | +898 |
| 25 | 11:55 | 1 | Jordan Spieth | +129 | Sam Stevens | +117 | Tie | +872 |
| 26 | 12:05 | 1 | Matt Fitzpatrick | -103 | Jake Knapp | +154 | Tie | +910 |
| 27 | 12:15 | 1 | Sungjae Im | +159 | Sam Burns | -107 | Tie | +948 |
| 28 | 12:25 | 1 | Nick Taylor | +133 | J.J. Spaun | +114 | Tie | +861 |
| 29 | 12:35 | 1 | Keegan Bradley | +128 | Maverick McNealy | +117 | Tie | +891 |
| 30 | 12:50 | 1 | Tommy Fleetwood | -108 | Ben Griffin | +163 | Tie | +887 |
| 31 | 13:00 | 1 | Nico Echavarria | +145 | Ludvig Aberg | +104 | Tie | +899 |
| 32 | 13:10 | 1 | Chris Gotterup | +119 | Jacob Bridgeman | +125 | Tie | +916 |
| 33 | 13:20 | 1 | Hideki Matsuyama | -102 | Justin Thomas | +154 | Tie | +894 |
| 34 | 13:30 | 1 | Rory McIlroy | -128 | Viktor Hovland | +190 | Tie | +967 |
| 35 | 13:40 | 1 | Rickie Fowler | -126 | Michael Kim | +188 | Tie | +937 |
| 36 | 13:50 | 1 | Chris Kirk | +138 | Sahith Theegala | +108 | Tie | +904 |