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// BETTING PREVIEW - JULY 23-26
3M Open
July 23-26, 2026 | Blaine, Minnesota
⛅ Tournament Weather Forecast Expect sunny skies with highs in the 84F range and moderate winds around 15 mph throughout the week. No rain is forecast, making for good scoring opportunities.
🌬️ Wind by Day — Morning & Afternoon
| Day | 8 AM | 12 PM |
|---|---|---|
| Thu | ↑ 6 mph SW G11 | ↑ 9 mph SW G11 |
| Fri | ↑ 6 mph WSW G8 | ↑ 8 mph SSW G11 |
| Sat | ↑ 9 mph SSW G20 | ↑ 12 mph SSW G14 |
| Sun | ↑ 6 mph NNW G11 | ↑ 12 mph NNW G19 |
🌊 Mornings play calmer (~7 vs ~10 mph) — a slight edge to AM-wave tee times.
🔒 Crew picks drop Wednesday night
Scottie Scheffler is the most dominant favorite we've modeled all season at TPC Twin Cities, with a 23.9% model win probability at +318 — a staggering edge over implied odds. Behind him, a cluster of mid-range contenders led by Maverick McNealy (+2915, SG Total +1.21, best putter in the field) and defending champion Kurt Kitayama (+3041, SG Approach #3) offer compelling value at 29/1 and 30/1 respectively. In the longshot tier, Corey Conners (+5168) stands out with elite ball-striking (SG Approach #4) and the best course fit score among serious contenders at +0.088, making him a prime each-way target.
Scheffler Is a Generational Lock
Scottie Scheffler's SG Total of +2.78 is more than double the next-best player in the field (McNealy at +1.21). His 23.9% model win probability dwarfs the implied 23.9% vs. roughly 24% bookmaker probability — but the real edge is that he leads the field in SG Approach (+1.11) AND ranks #3 in SG Putting (+0.47), an unusually complete profile that demands heavy allocation.
Scottie Scheffler
McNealy's Putter Drives Massive Edge
Maverick McNealy leads the entire field in SG Putting (+0.52) and ranks #2 overall in SG Total (+1.21) at +2915. He posted a T3 finish at TPC Twin Cities in 2024, and our model gives him a 3.3% win probability — roughly 10x what his odds imply. The missed cut in 2025 is a concern, but his current form profile suggests that was an outlier.
Maverick McNealy
Defending Champion Kitayama Fits Perfectly
Kurt Kitayama won this event in 2025 and added a T6 in 2024, giving him the fifth-best course history adjustment in the field (+0.064 strokes). He ranks #3 in SG Approach (+0.62) and carries a 3.2% model win probability at +3041 — a clear value play given his proven ability to contend at TPC Twin Cities.
Kurt Kitayama
Tom Kim's Iron Play Fits Perfectly
Tom Kim boasts the highest positive course fit adjustment among top-10 favorites (+0.078) and ranks #2 in the field in SG Approach (+0.69). At +3620 with a 2.7% model win probability, he's a premium ball-striker whose skill set aligns with what TPC Twin Cities demands. His T28 in 2025 is modest, but this is a form-over-history play.
Tom Kim
Conners Is the Best Longshot Target
Corey Conners at +5168 owns the best course fit score among all top-10 favorites (+0.088) and ranks #4 in SG Approach (+0.57). Our model gives him a 17.7% top-10 probability — making him an elite each-way candidate. His consistent iron play translates week to week, and the odds offer substantial overlay.
Corey Conners
Mac Meissner Is a Hidden Gem
At +6942, Mac Meissner quietly owns the second-best SG Total in the longshot tier (+0.82) and a 15.2% top-10 probability. He's outperforming several players priced significantly shorter and offers a massive price tag for a player whose underlying strokes gained numbers suggest he should be closer to 50/1.
Mac Meissner
Keith Mitchell's Course Fit Warns Caution
Despite ranking #6 in SG Total (+0.88), Keith Mitchell carries the worst course fit adjustment among all top-10 favorites at -0.106. He's missed the cut in two of three starts at TPC Twin Cities (MC in 2025, T46 in 2024), and his lone strong finish (T5 in 2023) looks increasingly like an outlier. The -0.106 adjustment is a significant red flag at +4739.
Keith Mitchell
Matsuyama Offers Elite Upside at 35/1
Hideki Matsuyama (+3559) pairs elite ball-striking (SG Approach +0.52, #5 in field) with a positive course fit (+0.031) and limited but neutral course history (T30 in 2023). At 2.7% model win probability, he's a proven winner at longer odds who profiles as a top-5 talent in this weakened field.
Hideki Matsuyama
Jordan Smith Is a Sneaky Contender
Jordan Smith at +5835 ranks #9 in the field in SG Total (+0.74) with a positive course fit (+0.043) and a 16.4% top-10 probability. He's priced behind several players with weaker overall profiles, making him a quality addition to any longshot portfolio this week at TPC Twin Cities.
Jordan Smith
Grillo's Course History Doesn't Match Price
Emiliano Grillo owns the best course history adjustment in the field (+0.089 strokes) but is priced at a distant +16116. While his overall SG Total doesn't support a win bet, his proven comfort at TPC Twin Cities makes him worth monitoring for top-20 or matchup plays where his course knowledge can offset weaker current form.
Emiliano Grillo
Complete Betting Board
| # | Player | Why They Could Win | Win Odds GolfData API |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Scottie Scheffler
USA - OWGR #1
FAVORITE
|
The world #1 shows up with a +2.78 SG Total and a runner-up at the Travelers plus a T4 at both the U.S. Open and Open Championship in his recent bag. He's never teed it up at TPC Twin Cities, but the model still spits out a 23.95% win probability and 65.3% top-10 in a field where nobody else clears 4%. At +318, you're getting the best player alive at a number that would be double most weeks. That's a lock, prior starts or not.
|
+318 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+318
Top 5-105
Top 10-188
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T4 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 2 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T4 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T12 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 3 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T14
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
23.9%
Top 10 Probability
65.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History—
|
|||
| 2 |
Maverick McNealy
USA - OWGR #42
CONTENDER
|
A T3 at this event in 2024 is the anchor point, and McNealy backs it up with the field's second-best putter (+0.52 SG) among this group. The recent form is choppy — an Open Championship MC and T55 at the Travelers — but a T10 at Memorial shows the ceiling is still there. At +2915 with a 24.2% top-10 number, he's a legitimate top-10/top-20 play more than an outright, especially with the course fit adjustment sitting at -0.078.
|
+2915 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T3
2023NA
Win+2915
Top 5+597
Top 10+312
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T55 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T32 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T10 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.3%
Top 10 Probability
24.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.08
Course History+0.01
|
|||
| 3 |
Kurt Kitayama
USA - OWGR #37
CONTENDER
|
Defending champion, and the only man in the field with a win at TPC Twin Cities to his name. The +0.62 SG Approach and course history adjustment of +0.064 are the two numbers that matter, even if the recent form (T40 Open, T44 Scottish, T25 Travelers) is pedestrian. At +3041 with a 3.18% model win rate, the price is fair rather than a steal — but title defenses from proven horses-for-courses players are exactly the bet you want to be on at 30-to-1.
|
+3041 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
20251
2024T6
2023NA
Win+3041
Top 5+623
Top 10+323
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T40 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T44 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T25 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T53 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T22 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T10
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.2%
Top 10 Probability
23.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History+0.06
|
|||
| 4 |
Hideki Matsuyama
JPN - OWGR #30
CONTENDER
|
Quietly stacking a T14 at the Open Championship and T14 at the Travelers, Matsuyama arrives with the second-best SG Approach in this group at +0.52 and a positive course fit adjustment of +0.031. The concern is he's basically a stranger to this event — one T30 in 2023 and nothing since. At +3559, the 22.6% top-10 number is where the value lives; the outright is a pass, but he's a strong top-20 candidate given the iron play.
|
+3559 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023T30
Win+3559
Top 5+687
Top 10+342
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T14 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T65 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T43 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T13 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.7%
Top 10 Probability
22.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History-0.02
|
|||
| 5 |
Tom Kim
KOR - OWGR #34
CONTENDER
|
Fresh off a victory at the Genesis Scottish Open and a solo 3rd at the U.S. Open, Kim brings the field's best SG Approach at +0.69 and the strongest positive course fit adjustment (+0.078) among the value tier. The Open Championship missed cut is a blip, not a trend. At +3620 with a 22.1% top-10 probability, this is the sharpest value play on the board — a recent winner with elite iron play at a price that's ignoring the momentum.
|
+3620 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T28
2024NA
2023NA
Win+3620
Top 5+701
Top 10+352
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): 1 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T46 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): 3 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T15 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T54 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T54 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.7%
Top 10 Probability
22.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.08
Course History+0.01
|
|||
| 6 |
Keith Mitchell
USA - OWGR #73
CONTENDER
|
A T5 here in 2023 hints at the ceiling, and the +0.55 SG Off-the-Tee is exactly what plays at bomber-friendly TPC Twin Cities. The problem: an Open Championship MC, a T51 at the John Deere, and a -0.106 course fit adjustment that undercuts the history. The T4 at the U.S. Open and a 5th at the Byron Nelson prove the form is real when it clicks. At +4739, this is a top-20 dart, not an outright — the model's 2.07% win number agrees.
|
+4739 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T46
2023T5
Win+4739
Top 5+913
Top 10+450
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T51 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T22 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T4 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T29 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 5 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T65
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.1%
Top 10 Probability
18.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.11
Course History+0.02
|
|||
| 7 |
Doug Ghim
USA - OWGR #162
VALUE
|
A T6 at the John Deere is the freshest ball-striking evidence, and Ghim owns a course history adjustment of +0.049 built on T24 and T27 finishes in 2023-24. The -0.14 SG Putting is the anti-signal, and at OWGR #162 he's the lowest-ranked player in this group by a wide margin. At +5140 with a 17.6% top-10 number, the top-20 ticket is more defensible than the outright — a hard win path even with the course comfort.
|
+5140 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T24
2023T27
Win+5140
Top 5+948
Top 10+468
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T6 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T15 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T28 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T31 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T19
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.9%
Top 10 Probability
17.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.05
|
|||
| 8 |
Corey Conners
CAN - OWGR #48
VALUE
|
The Canadian iron machine is riding a T14 at the Open Championship and T7 at the Travelers, with a +0.57 SG Approach that ranks among the best in this field. The course fit adjustment of +0.088 is the highest number on this entire card, which matters at a debut venue. At +5168 with a 17.7% top-10 probability, this is a genuine mispricing — Conners is priced like a longshot but the profile screams top-20 lock and legitimate outright dart.
|
+5168 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+5168
Top 5+963
Top 10+464
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T14 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T52 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T7 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 53 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T55
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.9%
Top 10 Probability
17.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.09
Course History+0.00
|
|||
| 9 |
Jackson Koivun
USA - OWGR #206
VALUE
|
The amateur phenom cracked a T10 at the ISCO Championship in his most recent start, which is basically the only reason to pay attention here at +5177. Ranked 206th in OWGR with no measured strokes-gained profile and no prior starts at TPC Twin Cities, the model's 1.9% win projection feels generous. A T23 at the U.S. Open shows the ceiling exists, but sandwiching a missed cut at the John Deere between his two best results tells you the floor is real. Pass on the outright, dabble in the top-20 at 30.3%.
|
+5177 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+5177
Top 5+968
Top 10+476
Recent Form
ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): T10 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.9%
Top 10 Probability
17.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History—
|
|||
| 10 |
Jordan Smith
ENG - OWGR #76
VALUE
|
The Englishman's +0.52 SG Off-the-Tee and +0.42 SG Approach travel well to a bomber course like TPC Twin Cities, and the +0.043 course fit adjustment agrees. He backed up a T18 at the Open Championship with a T21 at the Genesis Scottish Open, so the form is real even if the finishes are quiet. At +5835 with a 1.69% model win number and 29.6% top-20, he's a defensible sprinkle for a player who's #76 OWGR without much U.S. buzz. Better as a top-20 dart than an outright.
|
+5835 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+5835
Top 5+1050
Top 10+508
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T18 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T21 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T13 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T59 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.7%
Top 10 Probability
16.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History—
|
|||
| 11 |
Sungjae Im
KOR - OWGR #77
VALUE
|
Two career starts at TPC Twin Cities, two missed cuts — and yet Sungjae is priced at +6222 like the history doesn't exist. The +0.24 SG Putting and +0.37 SG Around-the-Green are nice, but the -0.21 SG Approach is a problem at a venue that demands iron precision, and the -0.002 course history adjustment quietly confirms the fit issue. A T14 at the Open Championship is the lone bright spot in an otherwise choppy stretch. Fade the outright, and be wary of the make-cut prop at 67.6%.
|
+6222 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023MC
Win+6222
Top 5+1141
Top 10+552
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T14 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T71 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T32 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T9 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
15.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History-0.00
|
|||
| 12 |
Ben James
USA - OWGR #395
VALUE
|
The Virginia product just posted a T4 at the Corales Puntacana Championship and a T15 at ISCO back-to-back, which is exactly the kind of momentum you want from a +6869 longshot. Problem: he missed the cut in his lone prior appearance at TPC Twin Cities in 2024, and at #395 OWGR with no measured strokes-gained data, the model is largely guessing at 1.44% to win. The T23 at the U.S. Open in June suggests there's more here than the ranking implies. Top-20 flier at 26.2%, not an outright.
|
+6869 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023NA
Win+6869
Top 5+1250
Top 10+601
Recent Form
Corales Puntacana Championship (Jul 2026): T4 • ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): T15 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T62 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T54
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
14.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History-0.02
|
|||
| 13 |
Mac Meissner
USA - OWGR #86
VALUE
|
Third at the Charles Schwab, T6 at the John Deere, and a T14 at TPC Twin Cities in 2025 — Meissner is quietly one of the hotter names in this field at +6942. The +0.82 SG Total headlines a well-rounded profile with +0.36 SG Putting and +0.31 SG Approach, and the +0.016 course history adjustment gives him a real edge. The model's 15.2% top-10 and 28.1% top-20 numbers say the outright price is fair-to-generous. Live longshot with a legitimate ceiling — worth a small outright and a top-20 stab.
|
+6942 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T14
2024T59
2023NA
Win+6942
Top 5+1184
Top 10+556
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T30 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T6 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T44 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T46 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T3 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T31 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T9
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
15.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.02
|
|||
| 14 |
Jake Knapp
USA - OWGR #46
VALUE
|
A solo 3rd at TPC Twin Cities in 2025 is the entire pitch at +7353, because the current form is ugly — MC at the Open, MC at the Scottish, T55 at Travelers, MC at the U.S. Open. The -0.16 course fit adjustment is one of the worst in this batch and directly contradicts the course history, which is a weird tension for a bomber profile. Model has him at 1.34% to win and 64% to make the cut, both soft for a top-50 OWGR player. Pass — the price reflects the name, not the current form.
|
+7353 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T3
2024WD
2023NA
Win+7353
Top 5+1298
Top 10+635
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T55 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
13.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.16
Course History-0.00
|
|||
| 15 |
Jackson Suber
USA - OWGR #104
VALUE
|
Suber's May-June stretch is loud: a solo 4th at the Byron Nelson, T4 at the RBC Canadian Open, T6 at the John Deere, and a T28 at the Open Championship. The +0.34 SG Approach is the skill you want at TPC Twin Cities, though the missed cut here in 2025 and -0.008 course history adjustment temper the enthusiasm. At +7419 with a 13.4% top-10 model number, he's a defensible dart based purely on the form arc. Better as a top-20 play than an outright given the venue debut-ish profile.
|
+7419 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+7419
Top 5+1346
Top 10+648
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T28 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T6 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T4 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T67 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 4 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T19
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
13.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History-0.01
|
|||
| 16 |
Sam Stevens
USA - OWGR #52
VALUE
|
Runner-up at TPC Twin Cities in 2025 and a T10 here in 2023 — Stevens has the best raw course history in this longshot cluster, and the +0.047 course history adjustment quantifies it. The T7 at the U.S. Open in June proves the ceiling still exists, even if back-to-back missed cuts at the Scottish and Open Championship muddy the picture. His +0.40 SG Off-the-Tee and +0.30 SG Approach fit the venue cleanly. At +7622 with a legit horses-for-courses angle, this is the most defensible outright dart in this tier.
|
+7622 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
20252
2024T64
2023T10
Win+7622
Top 5+1315
Top 10+615
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T62 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T7 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T42 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T65
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
14.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History+0.05
|
|||
| 17 |
Max Homa
USA - OWGR #75
VALUE
|
The runner-up finish at the John Deere Classic is the reason Homa is even in this conversation at +7632 — it's a rare pulse of life in a career that's been in freefall for over a year. Everything else is lukewarm: a T39 here in 2025, a modest +0.08 SG Approach, and a course fit adjustment of -0.047 that actively works against him. The model's 1.29% win number is being propped up almost entirely by name recognition and one good week. Pass on the outright, but the +638 top 10 has some meat on the bone if you believe in the Deere bounce.
|
+7632 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T39
2024NA
2023NA
Win+7632
Top 5+1324
Top 10+638
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T28 • ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): T39 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): 2 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T20 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T22 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
13.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History+0.02
|
|||
| 18 |
Ben Kohles
USA - OWGR #128
VALUE
|
The +0.46 SG Approach is doing serious work here, and it's paired with a course fit adjustment of +0.249 that's one of the strongest in the entire field. Kohles has posted T20 and T24 in his two prior TPC Twin Cities starts and just banked a T3 at the John Deere Classic followed by a T15 at ISCO — the ballstriker profile fits this venue perfectly. At +8292 with a 13.8% top 10 model number, the place market is where the value sits. The -0.17 putting is the ceiling cap, but this is a legitimate top-20 play.
|
+8292 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T20
2024T24
2023NA
Win+8292
Top 5+1342
Top 10+623
Recent Form
ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): T15 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T3 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T29 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T31
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
13.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.25
Course History+0.03
|
|||
| 19 |
Casey Jarvis
RSA - OWGR #63
VALUE
|
A T6 at The Open Championship is not a normal longshot data point — Jarvis outplayed roughly 90% of this field on the sport's biggest stage. The profile is tee-to-green heavy with +0.29 OTT and +0.31 Approach, and at OWGR #63 he's arguably underpriced at +8521 given the trajectory. The -0.13 around-the-green number and lack of course history are the yellow flags, but the model's 24.3% top 20 says the arrow is pointing up. Top-20 ticket over the outright.
|
+8521 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+8521
Top 5+1440
Top 10+683
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T6 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T21 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T65 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T38
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
12.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.08
Course History—
|
|||
| 20 |
Pierceson Coody
USA - OWGR #58
VALUE
|
A T3 at TPC Twin Cities in 2025 is the headline, and the +0.37 SG OTT fits the bomber profile this course tends to reward. The problem is the course fit model actively disagrees at -0.132, and the recent form has cooled — T28 at The Open, MC at the Scottish, T39 at the John Deere. Coody at +8977 is a pure course-horse bet, not a form bet. The 12.4% top 10 is fair; the outright is a stretch without the irons showing up.
|
+8977 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T3
202472
2023NA
Win+8977
Top 5+1495
Top 10+704
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T28 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T39 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T22 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
12.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.13
Course History+0.01
|
|||
| 21 |
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
DEN - OWGR #79
VALUE
|
A T9 at The Open Championship put the Dane on the radar, and the +0.48 SG OTT is legitimate tour-average-crushing distance. But the resume at TPC Twin Cities is blank, the course fit adjustment is essentially neutral at +0.004, and the supporting cast of finishes — 39 at Canadian, T42 at Colonial, T19 at Byron Nelson — is thoroughly mid. At +9231 with a 1.07% model win rate, there's no edge on the outright. Top-20 at 23.5% is the only playable angle.
|
+9231 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9231
Top 5+1521
Top 10+720
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T9 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T36 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): 39 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T42 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T75 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
12.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History—
|
|||
| 22 |
Michael Brennan
USA - OWGR #61
VALUE
|
The +0.77 SG OTT is the loudest number in this longshot cluster — Brennan bombs it with anyone in the field. But the profile falls apart fast: -0.21 putting, -0.17 around the green, no course history, and a course fit adjustment of -0.174 that flatly says this isn't the right venue. The T6 at Colonial is the lone recent highlight in a stretch of MCs and mid-pack finishes. At +9275, this is a fade — the driver alone doesn't win a birdie-fest.
|
+9275 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9275
Top 5+1598
Top 10+771
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T53 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T52 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T33 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T6 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): 81
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
11.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.17
Course History—
|
|||
| 23 |
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
RSA - OWGR #98
VALUE
|
The course fit model is screaming here — +0.156 adjustment paired with a well-rounded skill set (+0.29 Approach, +0.21 ARG, +0.29 Putting) that plays beautifully on a scoreable venue. Bezuidenhout ranks OWGR #98 but the underlying numbers look like a top-60 player, and the T12 at the John Deere Classic confirms the game is trending. The T20 here in 2025 is a solid data point even if the 2023 MC muddies it. At +9439 with a 13.1% top 10, this is the sharpest place-market ticket in the tier.
|
+9439 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T20
2024NA
2023MC
Win+9439
Top 5+1471
Top 10+662
Recent Form
Corales Puntacana Championship (Jul 2026): T69 • ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): T21 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T12 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T54 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T32 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
13.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.16
Course History+-0.00
|
|||
| 24 |
Brian Harman
USA - OWGR #66
VALUE
|
No prior starts at TPC Twin Cities, but the fit is obvious — Harman's +0.31 SG Approach and left-handed precision profile earn a +0.134 course fit adjustment, which is genuinely strong for a debut. The Open Championship MC stings, but a T25 at Travelers and T32 at the U.S. Open suggest the ballstriking is intact. At +9485 with a former major champion's ceiling, the 25% top 20 is priced fairly. Not a win bet at this number, but a defensible place play for a proven closer.
|
+9485 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9485
Top 5+1447
Top 10+669
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T36 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T25 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T32 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T22 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T60
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
13.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.13
Course History+0.02
|
|||
| 25 |
Johnny Keefer
USA - OWGR #60
VALUE
|
A T3 at the Genesis Scottish Open is the résumé line that should have this +10001 price closer to +7500. Keefer's profile is quietly balanced — +0.44 SG Approach and +0.42 OTT give him a legit ball-striking engine, though the -0.13 putter and -0.094 course fit adjustment explain why the model still only gives him 0.99% to win. No history at TPC Twin Cities is a real unknown, but for a top-10 shot at +772 he's a defensible dart.
|
+10001 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10001
Top 5+1661
Top 10+772
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T59 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T3 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T39 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T51 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T9 • PGA Championship (May 2026): 79 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T31
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
11.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.09
Course History—
|
|||
| 26 |
Tony Finau
USA - OWGR #122
VALUE
|
Course history is the only reason to look here: T12 in 2024 and T7 in 2023 at TPC Twin Cities are legitimate signals, worth a +0.048 history adjustment. Everything else is a shrug — 0.08 SG Approach is well below what you want from a name-brand longshot, the T58 at the John Deere is the fourth finish outside the top 25 in his last six, and the -0.143 course fit bump undercuts the history edge. At +10156 you're paying for the logo, not the form. Pass.
|
+10156 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T12
2023T7
Win+10156
Top 5+1716
Top 10+825
Recent Form
John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T58 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T55 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T40 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T29 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
10.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.14
Course History+0.05
|
|||
| 27 |
Michael Kim
USA - OWGR #57
VALUE
|
Three straight missed cuts — The Open, Scottish, John Deere — is not the setup you want heading into a +10281 number. Kim's underlying skill (+0.27 Approach, +0.24 Putting) is real and the model still gives him a 63.5% cut rate, but he's 0-for-2 lifetime at TPC Twin Cities with two MCs. Ball-striking longshots with cold recent form and a course they haven't solved are exactly the profile to fade. Look elsewhere in this tier.
|
+10281 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023MC
Win+10281
Top 5+1662
Top 10+772
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T49 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T17 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T44
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
11.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.01
|
|||
| 28 |
Max McGreevy
USA - OWGR #100
VALUE
|
The +0.129 course fit adjustment is one of the strongest in this longshot tier, and it's built on a real skill — +0.33 SG Approach ranks up with players priced 3000 points shorter. A T11 at the Corales Puntacana is a decent momentum tick after a rough spring, and the 64.4% model cut probability is the highest in this batch. The 2023 T30 at TPC Twin Cities won't scare anyone but at +10281 with legitimate fit, he's a defensible top-20 sprinkle at +23.1%.
|
+10281 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023T30
Win+10281
Top 5+1674
Top 10+759
Recent Form
Corales Puntacana Championship (Jul 2026): T11 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T51 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T32 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T51 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
11.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.13
Course History-0.01
|
|||
| 29 |
Max Greyserman
USA - OWGR #85
VALUE
|
The runner-up at TPC Twin Cities in 2024 is the whole ballgame here — that's a course-proven ceiling this price rarely offers. Problem is the model isn't buying it: -0.148 course fit adjustment, -0.10 SG Approach, and a recent stretch that includes MCs at The Open, John Deere, RBC Canadian, and Charles Schwab. The T9 at Byron Nelson and T14 at the PGA hint the ball-striking can wake up, but +11461 with that form is a lottery ticket, not a bet.
|
+11461 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
20242
2023NA
Win+11461
Top 5+1905
Top 10+881
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T36 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T9 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T14 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T31
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
10.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.15
Course History+0.03
|
|||
| 30 |
Jason Day
AUS - OWGR #56
VALUE
|
No prior starts at TPC Twin Cities and a recent log that reads MC-T55-MC-T65 is not the resume of a +11461 winner. Day's short game is still tour-elite (+0.39 Around Green, +0.18 Putting), but the -0.17 SG Approach is a real problem on a course where iron play separates the leaderboard. The name earns the price; the numbers say fade. Model gives him 0.86% to win and that feels generous.
|
+11461 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+11461
Top 5+1859
Top 10+850
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T55 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T65
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
10.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History-0.05
|
|||
| 31 |
Gary Woodland
USA - OWGR #44
VALUE
|
The +0.49 SG OTT is a top-tier number in this field and the T7 at the U.S. Open plus T6 at Colonial prove the ball-striking is trending. Course history is fine but unspectacular — T20 in 2025, T37 in 2024, MC in 2023 — and the -0.28 Around Green plus -0.102 course fit adjustment are the reasons the model still parks him at 0.84%. At +11758 the OWGR #44 tag and recent major form make him a reasonable top-10 dart at +882.
|
+11758 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T20
2024T37
2023MC
Win+11758
Top 5+1844
Top 10+882
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 71 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T7 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T36 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T6 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
10.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.10
Course History+0.03
|
|||
| 32 |
Beau Hossler
USA - OWGR #164
VALUE
|
A T3 at the Myrtle Beach Classic is the only recent finish that pops, and it's surrounded by two MCs and three finishes outside the top 20. The T13 at TPC Twin Cities in 2023 is a data point but the last two visits were both missed cuts, which is why the course history adjustment sits at -0.017. Negative Approach (-0.19) at #164 OWGR with a hot putter (+0.33) is a variance profile — at +12170 that's a hard sell. Fade.
|
+12170 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023T13
Win+12170
Top 5+1928
Top 10+885
Recent Form
Corales Puntacana Championship (Jul 2026): T42 • ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): T21 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T39 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T45 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
10.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.00
Course History-0.02
|
|||
| 33 |
Mackenzie Hughes
CAN - OWGR #141
VALUE
|
Three straight made cuts at TPC Twin Cities — T30 in '23, T19 in '24, T53 in '25 — give Hughes a floor most +13505 numbers don't have. The short game is the calling card here: +0.35 SG Around the Green and +0.39 putting offset a leaky -0.26 approach, and a T10 at the ISCO Championship confirms the wedges are sharp. Model gives him 9.1% to crack the top 10, which is fair value on the place, not the outright. Top-10 ticket only.
|
+13505 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T53
2024T19
2023T30
Win+13505
Top 5+2274
Top 10+1005
Recent Form
Corales Puntacana Championship (Jul 2026): T20 • ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): T10 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T46 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T10 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 66
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
9.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.09
Course History+0.01
|
|||
| 34 |
Keita Nakajima
JPN - OWGR #94
VALUE
|
A T3 at the Genesis Scottish Open against a legitimate field is the résumé line that justifies a look at +14118, even with zero starts at TPC Twin Cities. The profile is balanced but unspectacular — +0.27 SG Total, +0.28 putting carrying flat ball-striking — and the Open Championship missed cut chasing that Scottish result is a red flag. World #94 with a 8.6% top-10 model number; the price is honest, not exploitable. Skip the outright, small sprinkle on top 20 at +1810 area.
|
+14118 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14118
Top 5+2357
Top 10+1056
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T3 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T46 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T20 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T28 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.00
Course History—
|
|||
| 35 |
Sudarshan Yellamaraju
CAN - OWGR #102
VALUE
|
Best SG Total in this cluster at +0.38, headlined by +0.24 off the tee, and there's a T8 at the RBC Canadian Open on the recent card to prove the ceiling is real. The problem is everything around it — three missed cuts in his last seven including the U.S. Open and PGA Championship — and a -0.058 course fit adjustment that says TPC Twin Cities isn't the ideal spot. At +14358 with no prior starts here, the outright is a pass; 9.2% top-10 equity is where the value lives.
|
+14358 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14358
Top 5+2214
Top 10+991
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T52 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T8 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T40 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
9.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.06
Course History—
|
|||
| 36 |
Zach Bauchou
USA - OWGR #158
VALUE
|
Bauchou quietly owns the best approach number in this tier at +0.29, and the recent form backs it: T9 at Corales Puntacana, T6 at the Byron Nelson, T22 at Colonial. Course fit grades out at +0.033 — modestly positive — and the 60.6% make-cut projection is one of the higher marks among +14000+ dogs. No history at TPC Twin Cities is the caveat, but at +14463 with a real iron game trending up, this is the kind of longshot top-20 ticket (+959 top-10, 19.4% modeled) worth a token stab.
|
+14463 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14463
Top 5+2181
Top 10+959
Recent Form
Corales Puntacana Championship (Jul 2026): T9 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T67 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T22 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T6 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
9.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History—
|
|||
| 37 |
Davis Thompson
USA - OWGR #148
VALUE
|
Two prior starts here and two missed cuts is the ugly truth behind the +14534 price, and the ISCO Championship MC to open July doesn't help. What keeps him mildly interesting is the ball-striking profile — +0.47 SG Total, +0.28 approach, +0.20 off the tee — which is genuinely a cut above most of this tier. But the -0.022 course fit and -0.02 history adjustment both nudge the wrong direction. Hard fade on the outright; the skills say he shouldn't be this deep, the venue says he is.
|
+14534 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023MC
Win+14534
Top 5+2046
Top 10+956
Recent Form
ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T26 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T45 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
9.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History-0.02
|
|||
| 38 |
Ricky Castillo
USA - OWGR #99
VALUE
|
The Florida product carries a +0.43 SG Total that outkicks his +14642 number, but the resume at TPC Twin Cities is one missed cut and nothing else, and the recent form is a string of T42-T44-T45 finishes that scream ceiling problem. Nothing in the profile — balanced but unspectacular across the board, +0.17 OTT the only real strength — projects a winning week. World #99 ranking is the sell; the outright is a pass and even the top-20 at 19% feels like fair, not plus.
|
+14642 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14642
Top 5+2198
Top 10+982
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T44 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T45 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T42 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
9.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History-0.00
|
|||
| 39 |
Zac Blair
USA - OWGR #155
VALUE
|
The +0.267 course fit adjustment is the largest in this entire longshot cluster, and it's paired with a T13 here in 2023 and back-to-back top-10s at the ISCO Championship (T8) and John Deere Classic (T9). Blair is a short-course, precision-iron specialist — +0.35 SG Approach makes up for -0.34 off the tee — and TPC Twin Cities rewards exactly that profile. At +14678 with the model giving 9.2% top-10 and 61.9% make-cut, this is the sharpest longshot on the board. Top-20 and top-10 tickets are the play.
|
+14678 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T44
2024MC
2023T13
Win+14678
Top 5+2266
Top 10+988
Recent Form
ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): T8 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T9 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T32 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 69 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T60
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
9.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.27
Course History+0.03
|
|||
| 40 |
William Mouw
USA - OWGR #129
VALUE
|
A T7 at TPC Twin Cities in his 2025 debut here is the exact kind of course-proven data point +14900 rarely offers, and the ISCO Championship T10 confirms he's playing well right now. The tee-to-green profile stacks — +0.20 SG OTT and +0.28 approach — though a -0.09 putter and -0.08 around the green cap the ceiling. Course history adjustment of +0.037 is a mild tailwind. Small outright interest and a real top-20 dart at these numbers.
|
+14900 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T7
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14900
Top 5+2305
Top 10+1025
Recent Form
ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): T10 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T26 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T65 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T20 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T70
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History+0.04
|
|||
| 41 |
Rico Hoey
PHI - OWGR #110
LONGSHOT
|
Positive marks across the bag except the flatstick — the -0.28 SG Putting is the anchor dragging down a +15167 price that would otherwise look reasonable. Two prior TPC Twin Cities starts have produced a T57 and T67, and the recent stretch (MC-MC-T49-T67 across four straight) tells you the form isn't there either. The -0.031 course fit and -0.024 history adjustments both grade him below neutral. Pass.
|
+15167 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T57
2024T67
2023NA
Win+15167
Top 5+2311
Top 10+1049
Recent Form
Corales Puntacana Championship (Jul 2026): T67 • ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): T49 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T17 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T60 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T53
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History-0.02
|
|||
| 42 |
Denny McCarthy
USA - OWGR #103
LONGSHOT
|
The best putter in this cluster at +0.48 SG, and it's paired with a +0.064 course fit adjustment that likes what he brings to TPC Twin Cities as a debutant. Problem: the -0.34 off the tee is a real drag on a course that isn't short, and the recent form (MC at the John Deere, T39 at ISCO) doesn't suggest a game rounding into shape. At +15773 with a 9.3% top-10 number, he's a defensible top-20 dart but the win equity isn't there.
|
+15773 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+15773
Top 5+2293
Top 10+975
Recent Form
ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): T39 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T60 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T34 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T44
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
9.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History+0.01
|
|||
| 43 |
John Parry
ENG - OWGR #92
LONGSHOT
|
A T11 at the U.S. Open is a genuine eye-opener on this resume, and it's backed by the best approach number in this tier at +0.39 SG and a field-leading +0.131 course fit adjustment. The catch is the MC at the Genesis Scottish sandwiched between that Open T28 and the U.S. Open result — the floor is jagged. No prior starts at TPC Twin Cities means you're pricing him blind on course, but at +15986 the iron play alone justifies a small top-20 sprinkle.
|
+15986 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+15986
Top 5+2338
Top 10+1004
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T28 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T11 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T47 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T70 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T31
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
9.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.13
Course History—
|
|||
| 44 |
Emiliano Grillo
ARG - OWGR #113
LONGSHOT
|
Three-for-three at TPC Twin Cities with a T10 in 2023, T24 in 2024, and T20 in 2025 — that's the kind of course-history profile that actually earns the +0.089 adjustment the model assigns him. The +0.133 course fit stacks on top, and the recent run (T20 at the RBC Canadian, T23 at the U.S. Open, T26 at the John Deere) is quietly competent. The overall +0.09 SG Total keeps the ceiling capped, but at +16116 with a top-20 hit rate in every prior visit, he's a legitimate top-20 play.
|
+16116 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T20
2024T24
2023T10
Win+16116
Top 5+2354
Top 10+1062
Recent Form
John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T26 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T20 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T42 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T38 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.13
Course History+0.09
|
|||
| 45 |
Kevin Yu
TPE - OWGR #132
LONGSHOT
|
The T15 at the John Deere is the freshest data point worth citing, and the +0.25 SG off the tee gives him a real weapon. But the course profile is a mixed bag — a T37 in 2023 and T73 in 2024 followed by a missed cut in 2025 is a trajectory going the wrong way, and both the course fit (-0.075) and history (-0.033) adjustments grade negative. At +16160, the 8.3% top-10 model number is below the field average for this cluster. Fade.
|
+16160 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T73
2023T37
Win+16160
Top 5+2494
Top 10+1107
Recent Form
Corales Puntacana Championship (Jul 2026): T24 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T15 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T29 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T53
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History-0.03
|
|||
| 46 |
Lee Hodges
USA - OWGR #125
LONGSHOT
|
Won this event in 2023 but has missed the cut in both title defenses since, so the +0.043 course history adjustment is doing more work off nostalgia than repeatable data. The T3 at the John Deere is the reason to look again — that's a real result on a comparable venue and it pairs with a +0.116 course fit number. At +17043, you're buying the John Deere form and hoping the ghost of 2023 shows up; it's a defensible longshot top-20 ticket, not a win bet.
|
+17043 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
20231
Win+17043
Top 5+2557
Top 10+1118
Recent Form
ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T3 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T67
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.12
Course History+0.04
|
|||
| 47 |
Andrew Putnam
USA - OWGR #96
LONGSHOT
|
The +0.317 course fit adjustment is the largest in this entire cluster by a wide margin, and it's built on a short-game/putting combo (+0.28 around the green, +0.31 putting) that fits a scoreable venue. The -0.59 off the tee is the obvious hole, and the recent form (MC at the RBC Canadian, T51 at the John Deere, T52 at the Scottish) doesn't inspire. Still, at +17092 with a 62.4% make-cut number and elite fit grade, he's a live top-20 flier — just not a win bet.
|
+17092 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T19
2023NA
Win+17092
Top 5+2280
Top 10+965
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T52 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T51 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T65 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T17 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T55
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
9.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.32
Course History-0.01
|
|||
| 48 |
Aldrich Potgieter
RSA - OWGR #87
LONGSHOT
|
The T8 at the RBC Canadian is a real result and the +0.53 SG off the tee is the best number in this tier by a country mile — raw power plays. Everything else is a warning sign: no prior TPC Twin Cities starts, a -0.315 course fit adjustment that's the worst in this cluster, and back-to-back MCs at the Scottish and John Deere between that RBC finish and a T59 at the Open. At +17342, the driver alone isn't enough when the model actively hates the fit. Fade.
|
+17342 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+17342
Top 5+2804
Top 10+1282
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T59 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T8 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.32
Course History—
|
|||
| 49 |
Steven Fisk
USA - OWGR #84
LONGSHOT
|
Winner of the ISCO Championship in his most recent start, Fisk arrives with actual momentum and a T10 at Colonial to back it up. The problem: his lone TPC Twin Cities data point is a 74 in 2025, the course fit adjustment sits at -0.069, and his +0.24 SG off the tee is the only above-average skill in the bag. At +17651 the ISCO win papers over a shaky ball-striking profile, and the model's 0.56% win number feels about right. Pass.
|
+17651 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
202574
2024NA
2023NA
Win+17651
Top 5+2498
Top 10+1118
Recent Form
ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): 1 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T67 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T10 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T38
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History-0.02
|
|||
| 50 |
Taylor Moore
USA - OWGR #149
LONGSHOT
|
Three straight cuts made here — T14 in 2025, T12 in 2024 — and the +0.048 course history adjustment is one of the few positive marks on his card. Everything else is a warning sign: back-to-back MCs at the Scottish and John Deere, -0.15 SG Approach, and a -0.118 course fit that suggests the history is doing the heavy lifting. At +17757 you're paying for a T12 ceiling, not a win. Skip.
|
+17757 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T14
2024T12
2023MC
Win+17757
Top 5+2782
Top 10+1284
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T40 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T60 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T14 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T17
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.12
Course History+0.05
|
|||
| 51 |
Jesper Svensson
SWE - OWGR #166
LONGSHOT
|
The +0.51 SG off the tee is legitimately elite and pairs with a T4 at the RBC Canadian and a T9 at Byron Nelson to form a real ball-striking case. What kills the ticket: -0.20 SG Approach, -0.15 with the putter, and a -0.176 course fit that's among the worst in this cluster. Three cuts made here (T14/T37/T37) is fine but not exciting. At +18476 there's a top-20 argument (14.5% per the model), but the win path is capped.
|
+18476 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T14
2024T37
2023T37
Win+18476
Top 5+2943
Top 10+1324
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): 78 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T52 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T4 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T9 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.18
Course History+0.02
|
|||
| 52 |
Taylor Pendrith
CAN - OWGR #89
LONGSHOT
|
A solo 2nd at the ISCO Championship reminds everyone the ceiling is still there, and the 5th-place finish here in 2024 is the best course result in this longshot tier. The concern is a scattered profile — MC at the John Deere and Corales sandwiched around that runner-up, plus a -0.12 course fit adjustment that undercuts the 2024 result. The +0.10 SG Approach and OWGR #89 are contender-adjacent numbers. At +18476 with a 7.8% top-10, he's fairly priced but not a value.
|
+18476 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T68
20245
2023MC
Win+18476
Top 5+2729
Top 10+1180
Recent Form
Corales Puntacana Championship (Jul 2026): MC • ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): 2 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 61 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T29 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T43 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T47 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T44
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.12
Course History+0.01
|
|||
| 53 |
Lucas Glover
USA - OWGR #90
LONGSHOT
|
The +0.216 course fit adjustment is the largest positive number in this entire tier, and it's built on a +0.40 SG Approach that's been showing up: T5 at ISCO and T3 at the John Deere in his last two starts. The catch is a -0.51 putter that has been a season-long anchor and a single MC here in 2023 as his only course data. At +20733 the iron play plus fit combo makes him a defensible top-20 dart (15.0%), but the flatstick caps the win equity.
|
+20733 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023MC
Win+20733
Top 5+3167
Top 10+1357
Recent Form
ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): T5 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T3 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T66 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T46 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T71 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
6.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.22
Course History-0.04
|
|||
| 54 |
Zecheng Dou
CHN - OWGR #196
LONGSHOT
|
Five missed cuts in his last seven starts is the headline, and the lone MC here in 2023 doesn't help. The +0.14 SG Total is technically positive across the board with no glaring weakness, but there's no strength either — no skill clears +0.11, and the -0.102 course fit adjustment tilts against him. At +20806 with a 0.48% model win number, you're firing on a player who hasn't finished better than T13 since Myrtle Beach. Hard pass.
|
+20806 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023MC
Win+20806
Top 5+3176
Top 10+1392
Recent Form
Corales Puntacana Championship (Jul 2026): MC • ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T21 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
6.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.10
Course History-0.02
|
|||
| 55 |
Stephan Jaeger
GER - OWGR #101
LONGSHOT
|
The +0.27 Around the Green and +0.14 putter are the calling cards, and back-to-back T15s at ISCO and the John Deere show the short game is traveling. But -0.35 off the tee at a course that historically rewards distance is a real problem, and the -0.146 course fit adjustment agrees. His only start here is a T30 in 2023. At +21405 the ceiling looks like another T15 — fine for DFS, not for a futures ticket.
|
+21405 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023T30
Win+21405
Top 5+3287
Top 10+1453
Recent Form
Corales Puntacana Championship (Jul 2026): MC • ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): T15 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T15 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): WD • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T9 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T18 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
6.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.15
Course History-0.03
|
|||
Round 1 — Head-to-Head Pairings
| Grp | Tee Time | Hole | Player 1 | Odds | Player 2 | Odds | Tie | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 07:40 | 1 | Keegan Bradley | -115 | Jesper Svensson | +170 | Tie | +954 |
| 2 | 07:50 | 1 | Laurie Canter | -123 | Matthew Southgate | +185 | Tie | +940 |
| 3 | 08:00 | 1 | Jack McDonald | +284 | Ben Griffin | -191 | Tie | +1095 |
| 4 | 08:10 | 1 | Peter Uihlein | +138 | Kazuki Higa | +107 | Tie | +938 |
| 5 | 08:20 | 1 | John Parry | +120 | Sepp Straka | +125 | Tie | +899 |
| 6 | 08:30 | 1 | Andy Sullivan | +104 | Aldrich Potgieter | +141 | Tie | +947 |
| 7 | 08:40 | 1 | Ryo Hisatsune | -188 | Marcus Plunkett | +281 | Tie | +1089 |
| 8 | 08:50 | 1 | Tyrrell Hatton | +115 | Min Woo Lee | +129 | Tie | +923 |
| 9 | 09:00 | 1 | Nick Taylor | -137 | MJ Daffue | +206 | Tie | +960 |
| 10 | 09:15 | 1 | Rickie Fowler | +108 | Eugenio Chacarra | +139 | Tie | +893 |
| 11 | 09:25 | 1 | Thomas Detry | -159 | Naoyuki Kataoka | +237 | Tie | +1020 |
| 12 | 09:35 | 1 | J.J. Spaun | +112 | Victor Perez | +133 | Tie | +913 |
| 13 | 09:45 | 1 | Patrick Cantlay | +119 | Chris Gotterup | +124 | Tie | +922 |
| 14 | 09:55 | 1 | Kurt Kitayama | -108 | Michael Brennan | +159 | Tie | +964 |
| 15 | 10:05 | 1 | Bud Cauley | +119 | Brooks Koepka | +125 | Tie | +928 |
| 16 | 10:15 | 1 | Alex Fitzpatrick | -122 | Pierceson Coody | +182 | Tie | +945 |
| 17 | 10:25 | 1 | Corey Conners | +101 | Johnny Keefer | +146 | Tie | +929 |
| 18 | 10:40 | 1 | Adam Scott | +133 | Patrick Reed | +111 | Tie | +926 |
| 19 | 10:50 | 1 | Shaun Norris | +168 | Michael Thorbjornsen | -113 | Tie | +934 |
| 20 | 11:00 | 1 | Alex Noren | -113 | Marco Penge | +169 | Tie | +932 |
| 21 | 11:10 | 1 | Russell Henley | -103 | Matt Wallace | +156 | Tie | +896 |
| 22 | 11:20 | 1 | Francesco Molinari | +186 | Collin Morikawa | -124 | Tie | +944 |
| 23 | 11:30 | 1 | Rory McIlroy | -142 | Jordan Smith | +211 | Tie | +1001 |
| 24 | 11:40 | 1 | Hennie Du Plessis | +136 | Sahith Theegala | +110 | Tie | +909 |
| 25 | 11:50 | 1 | Kristoffer Reitan | +107 | Casey Jarvis | +137 | Tie | +951 |
| 26 | 12:05 | 1 | Robert MacIntyre | +109 | Cameron Young | +136 | Tie | +921 |
| 27 | 12:15 | 1 | Sungjae Im | +117 | Nico Echavarria | +128 | Tie | +896 |
| 28 | 12:25 | 1 | Justin Thomas | -109 | Jacob Bridgeman | +160 | Tie | +949 |
| 29 | 12:35 | 1 | Max Homa | +128 | Alex Smalley | +115 | Tie | +941 |
| 30 | 12:45 | 1 | Scottie Scheffler | -236 | Jose Luis Ballester | +354 | Tie | +1197 |
| 31 | 12:55 | 1 | Shane Lowry | +144 | Jon Rahm | +104 | Tie | +912 |
| 32 | 13:05 | 1 | Cameron John | +222 | Dan Brown | -151 | Tie | +1033 |
| 33 | 13:15 | 1 | Hideki Matsuyama | -119 | Kazuma Kobori | +177 | Tie | +956 |
| 34 | 13:30 | 1 | Xander Schauffele | -124 | Eric Cole | +182 | Tie | +997 |
| 35 | 13:40 | 1 | Tommy Fleetwood | -164 | Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | +247 | Tie | +1005 |
| 36 | 13:50 | 1 | Bryson DeChambeau | -114 | Jackson Suber | +167 | Tie | +981 |
| 37 | 14:00 | 1 | Lucas Herbert | +199 | Ludvig Aberg | -136 | Tie | +1009 |
| 38 | 14:10 | 1 | Si Woo Kim | -103 | Ryan Gerard | +155 | Tie | +901 |
| 39 | 14:20 | 1 | Ryan Fox | +140 | Sam Burns | +106 | Tie | +920 |