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| # | Player | Why They Could Win | Win Odds GolfData API |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Scottie Scheffler
USA - OWGR #1
FAVORITE
|
The undisputed best player in the world has won 10 of his last 52 starts — it's Scottie vs. the field these days, reminiscent of Tiger in 2000. Back-to-back top-10s at Pebble (T6 in 2024, T9 in 2025) and the best SG Total in the field (+3.06) make him the clear favorite. When Scheffler tees it up, the question isn't if he'll contend, but whether anyone can keep up. |
+375 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T9
2024T6
2023NA
Win+375
Top 5+102
Top 10-185
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): 1st • Hero World Challenge (Dec 2025): 1st • DP World Tour Championship (Nov 2025): T8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
21.0%
Top 10 Probability
65.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 2 |
Rory McIlroy
NIR - OWGR #2
VALUE
|
Defending champion after his dominant 2025 victory here. Struggled at Pebble in 2024 (T66) but found something last year to win going away. Elite tee-to-green game and positive course fit make him a strong repeat contender. |
+2177 |
Tournament History & Odds
20251
2024T66
2023NA
Win+2177
Top 5+459
Top 10+229
Recent Form
Hero Dubai Desert Classic (Jan 2026): T33 • Dubai Invitational (Jan 2026): T3 • DP World Tour Championship (Nov 2025): 2nd • Defending Pebble Beach champion; won 2025 Masters to complete career Grand Slam
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.4%
Top 10 Probability
30.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 3 |
Si Woo Kim
KOR - OWGR #42
VALUE
|
Three straight Pebble starts with improving results: T41, T14, 12th. The Korean's creativity and touch around the greens make him a natural fit for Pebble, though course fit (-0.06) disagrees with the eye test. |
+2700 |
Tournament History & Odds
202512
2024T14
2023T41
Win+2700
Top 5+528
Top 10+249
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T6 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T34 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T47 • Houston Open (Oct 2025): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.6%
Top 10 Probability
28.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.06
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 4 |
Xander Schauffele
USA - OWGR #4
VALUE
|
Making just his second Pebble Beach start after a T54 in 2024. Elite ball-striker (SG Total +1.54) with a positive course fit (+0.037) suggests the potential is there for a much better result this time around. |
+3102 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T54
2023NA
Win+3102
Top 5+598
Top 10+290
Recent Form
Baycurrent Classic (Oct 2025): Won • Struggled mid-2025: missed Tour Championship for first time since 2017 • 2024: Won PGA Championship & The Open Championship
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.1%
Top 10 Probability
25.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 5 |
Chris Gotterup
USA - OWGR #17
VALUE
|
World No. 17 making his Pebble Beach debut. High SG Total (+1.46) and a positive course fit (+0.034) make him a dangerous unknown on these layouts. No course history could be a plus - no bad memories. |
+3421 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+3421
Top 5+656
Top 10+320
Recent Form
Sony Open (Jan 2026): Won (3rd PGA Tour title) • The Open Championship (Jul 2025): 3rd • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2025): Won • Tour Championship: T10
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.8%
Top 10 Probability
23.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History—
| |||
| 6 |
Cameron Young
USA - OWGR #20
VALUE
|
The big-hitter has strong course fit (+0.061) but poor Pebble results: WD in 2023, 70th in 2024, 72nd in 2025. A head-scratcher given the positive model numbers - due for a turnaround or a genuine bad fit. |
+3786 |
Tournament History & Odds
202572
202470
2023WD
Win+3786
Top 5+719
Top 10+341
Recent Form
Sony Open (Jan 2026): T35 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T27 • Houston Open (Nov 2025): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.6%
Top 10 Probability
22.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 7 |
Ben Griffin
USA - OWGR #8
VALUE
|
Despite a World No. 8 ranking and elite SG Total (+1.53), Pebble Beach has been a house of horrors: MC, T58, T69 in three tries. Course fit is positive (+0.064) so the model believes a breakthrough is coming. |
+3801 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T69
2024T58
2023MC
Win+3801
Top 5+666
Top 10+308
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T24 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T23 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T15 • Houston Open (Nov 2025): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.6%
Top 10 Probability
24.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History-0.04
| |||
| 8 |
Maverick McNealy
USA - OWGR #23
VALUE
|
The local favorite - grew up playing Pebble Beach courses. History of T39 and T40 doesn't match the home-course advantage narrative, but positive course fit (+0.042) and improving SG (+1.29) could change that. |
+4116 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T40
2024T39
2023WD
Win+4116
Top 5+752
Top 10+352
Recent Form
Sony Open (Jan 2026): T45 • BMW Championship (Aug 2025): 3rd • RBC Heritage (Apr 2025): 3rd • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2025): 3rd • Genesis Invitational (Feb 2025): 2nd
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.4%
Top 10 Probability
22.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.05
| |||
| 9 |
Jake Knapp
USA - OWGR #94
VALUE
|
The big bomber made his Pebble debut in 2025 (T33) and showed he can handle the finesse requirements. Positive course fit (+0.037) and SG Total of +1.24 make him a popular DFS and betting target. |
+4248 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T33
2024NA
2023NA
Win+4248
Top 5+810
Top 10+384
Recent Form
Sony Open (Jan 2026): T11 • Mexico Open (Feb 2024): Won (maiden PGA Tour victory) • Farmers 2024: T3 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2025): T4
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.3%
Top 10 Probability
20.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 10 |
Tommy Fleetwood
ENG - OWGR #3
VALUE
|
World No. 3 makes his third straight Pebble Beach start after finishes of T31 and T22. The Englishman's smooth swing and links-style game should suit the coastal conditions, though his course fit numbers are neutral. |
+4544 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T22
2024T31
2023NA
Win+4544
Top 5+780
Top 10+356
Recent Form
Hero Dubai Desert Classic (Jan 2026): T41 • Dubai Invitational (Jan 2026): 25th • DP World Tour Championship (Nov 2025): T3 • Tour Championship (Aug 2025): Won — FedEx Cup champion, first PGA Tour victory
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.1%
Top 10 Probability
21.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 11 |
Hideki Matsuyama
JPN - OWGR #15
VALUE
|
Despite a strong course fit (+0.078, among the highest in the field), Pebble results have been poor: T71 in 2024, T48 in 2025. The model loves his profile here - the question is whether the results will finally match. |
+4548 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T48
2024T71
2023NA
Win+4548
Top 5+790
Top 10+365
Recent Form
Hero World Challenge (Dec 2025): Won (playoff vs Noren) • The Sentry (Jan 2025): Won • 2025: Two wins, 100% cuts made through March
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.1%
Top 10 Probability
21.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.08
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 12 |
Matt Fitzpatrick
ENG - OWGR #22
VALUE
|
Three-time Pebble Beach participant with mixed results: MC, T58, T48. The 2022 US Open champion's precision game should suit these courses better than results suggest. Course fit (+0.045) agrees. |
+4555 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T48
2024T58
2023MC
Win+4555
Top 5+792
Top 10+364
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T63 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T15 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T8 • DP World Tour Championship (Nov 2025): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.1%
Top 10 Probability
21.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 13 |
Viktor Hovland
NOR - OWGR #14
VALUE
|
Three straight Pebble Beach starts: T13, T58, T22. The Norwegian's course results have been inconsistent, but his SG Total of +1.29 and improving short game could be the difference this year. |
+4739 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T22
2024T58
2023T13
Win+4739
Top 5+849
Top 10+395
Recent Form
Valspar Championship (Mar 2025): Won • DP World Tour Championship (Nov 2025): T8 • BMW Championship (Aug 2025): T12
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.1%
Top 10 Probability
20.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+-0.00
| |||
| 14 |
Russell Henley
USA - OWGR #5
VALUE
|
World No. 5 had a breakout T5 here in 2025 after a T58 the year prior. Among the best putters on TOUR, which is critical on Pebble's poa annua greens. High SG Total (+1.53) backs up the ranking. |
+4859 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T5
2024T58
2023NA
Win+4859
Top 5+815
Top 10+375
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T8 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T12 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T8 • Houston Open (Nov 2025): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.0%
Top 10 Probability
21.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 15 |
Michael Thorbjornsen
USA - OWGR #72
LONGSHOT
|
Pebble Beach debut for the promising young American. SG Total of +1.27 is impressive for a relative newcomer, though neutral course fit (-0.008) suggests a wait-and-see approach. |
+5011 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+5011
Top 5+891
Top 10+412
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.0%
Top 10 Probability
19.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+-0.00
| |||
| 16 |
Justin Rose
ENG - OWGR #10
LONGSHOT
|
The Pebble Beach maestro: Won in 2023, T11 in 2024, T3 in 2025. Three consecutive years of top-tier finishes make the 45-year-old Englishman the most proven commodity on this course. Treat the course history numbers seriously. |
+5325 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T3
2024T11
20231
Win+5325
Top 5+950
Top 10+445
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
18.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.05
| |||
| 17 |
J.J. Spaun
USA - OWGR #7
LONGSHOT
|
World No. 7 has been on a tear this season. Two starts at Pebble (T54, T33) show a steady upward trend. SG Total of +1.30 makes him a serious contender in this field. |
+6131 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T33
2024T54
2023NA
Win+6131
Top 5+1056
Top 10+474
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2025): Won at Oakmont • The Players Championship (Mar 2025): 2nd • Cognizant Classic (Mar 2025): T2 • Charles Schwab Challenge: T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
17.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 18 |
Robert MacIntyre
SCO - OWGR #6
LONGSHOT
|
The fiery Scotsman made his Pebble debut in 2025 (T40) and returns with a World No. 6 ranking. Links pedigree and strong course fit (+0.056) suggest he can improve significantly on that maiden effort. |
+6163 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T40
2024NA
2023NA
Win+6163
Top 5+996
Top 10+445
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T38 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T4
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
18.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 19 |
Harris English
USA - OWGR #11
LONGSHOT
|
World No. 11 with strong overall form (SG +1.26) but Pebble has been unkind: 76th in 2024, T73 in 2025. Neutral course fit suggests the results may be more about form timing than course suitability. |
+6216 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T73
202476
2023NA
Win+6216
Top 5+988
Top 10+442
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T27 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T27 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T15 • Houston Open (Oct 2025): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
18.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History-0.04
| |||
| 20 |
Patrick Cantlay
USA - OWGR #27
LONGSHOT
|
Steady Pebble performer with a T11 in 2024 and T33 in 2025. Not flashy but rarely misses cuts here. SG Total of +1.21 and positive course fit (+0.032) support a top-20 ceiling. |
+6297 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T33
2024T11
2023NA
Win+6297
Top 5+1013
Top 10+455
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T13 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T15 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T8 • Houston Open (Nov 2025): T22
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
18.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 21 |
Min Woo Lee
AUS - OWGR #45
LONGSHOT
|
Made his Pebble debut in 2025 with a solid T17. Strong course fit (+0.050) and an aggressive style that can light up these courses. The Aussie could take another step forward in year two. |
+6992 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T17
2024NA
2023NA
Win+6992
Top 5+1181
Top 10+533
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T38 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T14 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T23 • Houston Open (Nov 2025): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
15.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 22 |
Pierceson Coody
USA - OWGR #90
LONGSHOT
|
No Pebble history but solid overall SG (+1.11). Neutral course fit (+0.002) and his twin brother's success provide motivation for a strong debut. |
+7217 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+7217
Top 5+1205
Top 10+531
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
15.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History—
| |||
| 23 |
Sam Burns
USA - OWGR #25
LONGSHOT
|
Back-to-back strong Pebble finishes: 10th in 2024, T22 in 2025. The powerful Louisianan's positive course fit (+0.035) and balanced SG profile make him a reliable top-20 play. |
+7409 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T22
202410
2023NA
Win+7409
Top 5+1181
Top 10+531
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T27 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T15 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T8 • Houston Open (Nov 2025): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
15.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 24 |
Rickie Fowler
USA - OWGR #83
LONGSHOT
|
The fan favorite has back-to-back disappointing Pebble finishes: T47 and T53. His game needs a spark and course fit is neutral. At his best, Fowler's creativity would thrive here - but that best has been elusive. |
+7573 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T53
2024T47
2023NA
Win+7573
Top 5+1208
Top 10+542
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T18 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T15 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T8 • Houston Open (Oct 2025): T23
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
15.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.00
Course History-0.04
| |||
| 25 |
Ryan Gerard
USA - OWGR #30
LONGSHOT
|
Making his Pebble Beach debut. Strong SG Total (+1.28) and a World No. 30 ranking make him a dangerous debutant, though course fit is slightly negative. |
+7805 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+7805
Top 5+1181
Top 10+513
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
16.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 26 |
Kurt Kitayama
USA - OWGR #37
LONGSHOT
|
Two Pebble starts: T29 (2023), T39 (2024). The Californian's power game and neutral course fit (+0.014) suggest a steady mid-field result. |
+7911 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T39
2023T29
Win+7911
Top 5+1284
Top 10+571
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): MC • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T12 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T34 • Houston Open (Nov 2025): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
14.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 27 |
Jason Day
AUS - OWGR #62
LONGSHOT
|
The Aussie veteran has found something at Pebble: T6 in 2024, T13 in 2025. Elite course fit (+0.055) backs up the recent results. At 38, he remains a genuine contender on courses that reward creativity. |
+8063 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T13
2024T6
2023NA
Win+8063
Top 5+1328
Top 10+587
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
14.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History+0.06
| |||
| 28 |
Sepp Straka
AUT - OWGR #12
LONGSHOT
|
Has been steadily improving at Pebble: T26 in 2024, T7 in 2025. The Austrian's consistent ball-striking (SG +0.84) and course knowledge make him a solid top-10 play, though course fit is slightly negative. |
+8869 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T7
2024T26
2023NA
Win+8869
Top 5+1418
Top 10+624
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): MC • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T12 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T34 • Houston Open (Nov 2025): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
13.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 29 |
Ludvig Aberg
SWE - OWGR #18
LONGSHOT
|
Runner-up in his 2024 debut before a WD in 2025. When healthy, his elite ball-striking (SG +0.95) and course fit suggest another top finish. The Swede knows how to contend at Pebble. |
+9188 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025WD
20242
2023NA
Win+9188
Top 5+1489
Top 10+652
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): WD • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T8 • Hero World Challenge (Dec 2025): 3rd • DP World Tour Championship (Nov 2025): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
13.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 30 |
Collin Morikawa
USA - OWGR #19
LONGSHOT
|
Consecutive top-20s at Pebble (T14, T17) show consistent competence, but his course fit (-0.071) is among the lowest in the field. His precision iron game compensates for what the model sees as a slight mismatch. |
+9984 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T17
2024T14
2023NA
Win+9984
Top 5+1366
Top 10+594
Recent Form
Sony Open (Jan 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational (Mar 2025): 2nd • The Sentry (Jan 2025): 2nd • 4th in FedExCup standings entering Masters
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
14.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 31 |
Taylor Pendrith
CAN - OWGR #43
LONGSHOT
|
Bookend top-10s at Pebble: T7 in 2023, T9 in 2025 (missed 2024). The big Canadian's course fit (+0.039) confirms what the results show - this is a venue that suits his game. |
+10711 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T9
2024NA
2023T7
Win+10711
Top 5+1616
Top 10+695
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): MC • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T23 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T34 • Houston Open (Nov 2025): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
12.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 32 |
Harry Hall
ENG - OWGR #54
LONGSHOT
|
Course fit of +0.097 is one of the highest in the field. Results are mixed (T34, T58) but the model sees enormous upside for the Englishman's game on these layouts. |
+10789 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T58
2024NA
2023T34
Win+10789
Top 5+1622
Top 10+665
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T24 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T6 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T35 • Houston Open (Oct 2025): T52
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
13.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 33 |
Daniel Berger
USA - OWGR #53
LONGSHOT
|
No Pebble Beach history in recent years as he returns from prolonged injury struggles. SG of +0.84 shows he still has game, but negative course fit (-0.055) and rust are concerns. |
+10970 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10970
Top 5+1791
Top 10+747
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T56 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T6 • Hero World Challenge (Dec 2025): T8 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
11.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.06
Course History+0.05
| |||
| 34 |
J.T. Poston
USA - OWGR #56
LONGSHOT
|
Two Pebble starts: T20 and T53. The steady American's accuracy-based game can work here, though course fit is slightly negative (-0.022). |
+11157 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T53
2024T20
2023NA
Win+11157
Top 5+1712
Top 10+736
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T38 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T27 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T46 • Houston Open (Nov 2025): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
12.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 35 |
Sam Stevens
USA - OWGR #50
LONGSHOT
|
Has improved at Pebble: T34 in 2023, T17 in 2025. Neutral course fit but an SG profile (+0.85) that suggests consistent mid-field contention. |
+12145 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T17
2024NA
2023T34
Win+12145
Top 5+1699
Top 10+725
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
12.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 36 |
Keith Mitchell
USA - OWGR #-
LONGSHOT
|
No recent Pebble data but known for his length off the tee. Negative course fit (-0.030) suggests this isn't an ideal venue for his aggressive style. |
+12195 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+12195
Top 5+1876
Top 10+788
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T44 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T23 • Houston Open (Nov 2025): MC • Sanderson Farms Championship (Oct 2025): T34
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
11.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 37 |
Nick Taylor
CAN - OWGR #51
LONGSHOT
|
Three Pebble starts with mixed results: T20 (2023), T71 (2024), T33 (2025). The Canadian birdie-machine can light it up here but hasn't found consistency. |
+12322 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T33
2024T71
2023T20
Win+12322
Top 5+1736
Top 10+727
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T27 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T27 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T34 • Houston Open (Nov 2025): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
12.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.00
Course History+0.06
| |||
| 38 |
Wyndham Clark
USA - OWGR #49
LONGSHOT
|
Won the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am but crashed to T73 in 2025 defending his title. Course fit is elite (+0.069) and the 2023 US Open champion knows how to win on coastal courses. The volatility is real. |
+12639 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T73
20241
2023NA
Win+12639
Top 5+1964
Top 10+842
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T13 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T34 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T16 • Houston Open (Nov 2025): T25
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
10.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 39 |
Matt McCarty
USA - OWGR #58
LONGSHOT
|
Pebble Beach debut for the rising American. SG Total of +0.89 is solid and neutral course fit (+0.006) suggests a safe floor. |
+12639 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+12639
Top 5+1838
Top 10+764
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T2 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T17 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T35 • Houston Open (Oct 2025): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
11.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 40 |
Keegan Bradley
USA - OWGR #16
LONGSHOT
|
The US Ryder Cup captain had a strong T11 at Pebble in 2024 before falling to T65 in 2025. Solid SG profile (+0.87) and course fit (+0.014) make him a steady presence in the field. |
+13952 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T65
2024T11
2023NA
Win+13952
Top 5+1930
Top 10+808
Recent Form
Sony Open (Jan 2026): T23 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T18 • Houston Open (Nov 2025): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
11.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 41 |
Sahith Theegala
USA - OWGR #-
LONGSHOT
|
No Pebble Beach history but his course fit is among the best in the field (+0.067). The charismatic former Pepperdine star grew up on California courses and his SG of +0.64 is trending in the right direction. |
+14254 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14254
Top 5+2026
Top 10+852
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T8 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T27 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T8 • Houston Open (Nov 2025): T15
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
10.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 42 |
Jacob Bridgeman
USA - OWGR #63
LONGSHOT
|
Another Pebble debutant with a positive course fit (+0.045). The former Clemson star's steady game could translate well to the multi-course format. |
+14323 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14323
Top 5+1971
Top 10+815
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T13 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T4
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
10.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History—
| |||
| 43 |
Shane Lowry
IRL - OWGR #26
LONGSHOT
|
The 2019 Open champion was runner-up here in 2025. His wind-playing ability and links-bred touch around the greens make him dangerous on the Monterey Peninsula. Course fit is neutral but the talent is undeniable. |
+14393 |
Tournament History & Odds
20252
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14393
Top 5+2166
Top 10+906
Recent Form
Hero Dubai Desert Classic (Jan 2026): T26 • Dubai Invitational (Jan 2026): T3 • DP World Tour Championship (Nov 2025): T11 • Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship (Nov 2025): T12
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
9.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 44 |
Corey Conners
CAN - OWGR #31
LONGSHOT
|
Two Pebble starts: T31 in 2024, T65 in 2025. The Canadian's elite ball-striking (SG +0.84) should play well here, but negative course fit (-0.049) and poor putting on poa greens remain concerns. |
+14534 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T65
2024T31
2023NA
Win+14534
Top 5+2074
Top 10+852
Recent Form
Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T22 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T34 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T15 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2025): T8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
10.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History-0.04
| |||
| 45 |
Akshay Bhatia
USA - OWGR #52
LONGSHOT
|
Made his Pebble debut in 2025 with a T22. The talented left-hander's shot-shaping ability suits the variety of these three courses. Course fit (+0.018) is mildly positive. |
+14570 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T22
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14570
Top 5+2177
Top 10+894
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): MC • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T23 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): MC • Houston Open (Nov 2025): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
10.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 46 |
Garrick Higgo
RSA - OWGR #64
LONGSHOT
|
Made the cut in his only Pebble start (T20 in 2023). Strong course fit (+0.055) and the South African's natural shot-shaping ability make him an intriguing sleeper. |
+14678 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023T20
Win+14678
Top 5+2183
Top 10+934
Recent Form
World Wide Technology Championship (Nov 2025): T4 (shot 61 in R3) • Sanderson Farms Championship (Oct 2025): 2nd • Corales Puntacana Championship (Apr 2025): Won • 5 top-10s in 2025
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
9.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 47 |
Jordan Spieth
USA - OWGR #79
LONGSHOT
|
The former world No. 1 has struggled at Pebble recently: T63, T39, T69. Despite a positive course fit (+0.023), his game hasn't clicked on the Monterey Peninsula. Searching for his form of old. |
+16029 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T69
2024T39
2023T63
Win+16029
Top 5+2050
Top 10+853
Recent Form
Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T11 • AT&T Pebble Beach (Feb 2025): T8 • Returning from 2024 wrist surgery that sidelined him 7 months
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
10.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 48 |
Rico Hoey
PHI - OWGR #71
LONGSHOT
|
Making his Pebble Beach debut. SG of +0.67 is modest but improving, though negative course fit (-0.069) is a concern for this venue. |
+17393 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+17393
Top 5+2412
Top 10+1004
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): WD • Golf: Rico Hoey claims 2nd place at BoU Championship
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
9.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History—
| |||
| 49 |
Alex Noren
SWE - OWGR #13
LONGSHOT
|
World No. 13 with a T26 in his only Pebble start (2024). Strong SG profile (+0.78) and positive course fit (+0.037) make the steady Swede an intriguing value play in the mid-tier. |
+17864 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T26
2023NA
Win+17864
Top 5+2234
Top 10+902
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): MC • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T15 • Hero World Challenge (Dec 2025): T8 • DP World Tour Championship (Nov 2025): T21
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
10.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 50 |
Max McGreevy
USA - OWGR #70
LONGSHOT
|
Missed the cut at Pebble in 2023. SG of +0.74 shows improvement but course fit (-0.042) remains a headwind. |
+18137 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023MC
Win+18137
Top 5+2341
Top 10+957
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T27
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
9.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 51 |
Patrick Rodgers
USA - OWGR #87
LONGSHOT
|
Stanford alum knows these courses well. Results haven't matched the local knowledge: 79th (2024), T22 (2025). The T22 last year is encouraging. |
+18476 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T22
202479
2023NA
Win+18476
Top 5+2512
Top 10+1025
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T44 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): 3rd • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T45 • Houston Open (Nov 2025): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
8.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 52 |
Max Greyserman
USA - OWGR #33
LONGSHOT
|
WD in his 2025 debut. When healthy, his course fit (+0.066) is among the strongest in the field. Worth monitoring pre-tournament status. |
+20308 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025WD
2024NA
2023NA
Win+20308
Top 5+2932
Top 10+1191
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T56
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 53 |
Stephan Jaeger
GER - OWGR #-
LONGSHOT
|
No Pebble history but the highest course fit in the entire field (+0.105). The German's game profile is a near-perfect match for these courses according to the model. A true sleeper. |
+21177 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+21177
Top 5+2855
Top 10+1172
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): MC • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T15 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T23 • Houston Open (Nov 2025): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 54 |
Michael Kim
USA - OWGR #38
LONGSHOT
|
Former AT&T Byron Nelson winner had a strong T11 at Pebble in 2023. High course fit (+0.064) and local California ties make him a potential mid-field surprise. |
+21639 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023T11
Win+21639
Top 5+2800
Top 10+1106
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
8.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 55 |
Ryo Hisatsune
JPN - OWGR #-
LONGSHOT
|
Pebble Beach debut for the talented Japanese youngster. SG of +0.51 is developing and course fit (-0.011) is neutral. Learning year for a player with high upside. |
+22801 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+22801
Top 5+3053
Top 10+1211
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T44
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
7.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History—
| |||