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// BETTING PREVIEW - APRIL 30 - MAY 03
Cadillac Championship Signature event
April 30 - May 03, 2026 | Doral, Florida
⛅ Tournament Weather Forecast Expect sunny skies with highs in the 88F range and light winds around 10 mph throughout the week. No rain is forecast, making for ideal scoring conditions.
Miller
- Win:TBD-
- Top 5:TBD-
- Top 10:TBD-
Kevin
- Win:TBD-
- Top 5:TBD-
- Top 10:TBD-
Andrew
- Win:TBD-
- Top 5:TBD-
- Top 10:TBD-
Kcon
- Win:TBD-
- Top 5:TBD-
- Top 10:TBD-
Parbeh
- Win:TBD-
- Top 5:TBD-
- Top 10:TBD-
JB
- Win:TBD-
- Top 5:TBD-
- Top 10:TBD-
Scottie Scheffler is the most dominant favorite we've modeled this season, with an 18.7% win probability against +435 odds that imply just 18.7% — but the real edge is his +2.92 SG Total that dwarfs the field by nearly a full stroke. The mid-tier offers exceptional value: Cameron Young (+1389) ranks second in total strokes gained at +2.00 with a 6.7% model win probability, while Chris Gotterup (+3248) boasts the best course fit in the top 10 at +0.224 and a 3.0% win probability against odds implying virtually nothing. Longshot hunters should zero in on Jacob Bridgeman (+5330), who ranks fifth in putting, carries a +1.31 SG Total, and projects for a nearly 20% top-10 probability.
Scheffler Is a Class Apart
Scottie Scheffler's +2.92 SG Total leads the field by 0.92 strokes over Cameron Young, and he ranks #1 in SG Approach (+1.04) and #2 in SG Putting (+0.61). His 18.7% model win probability represents a massive edge at +435 — he's the rare favorite who deserves to be backed confidently.
Scottie Scheffler
Cameron Young's Price Is Absurd
At +1389, Cameron Young's 6.7% model win probability suggests he should be priced closer to +1400 on implied probability alone — but the real story is his +2.00 SG Total ranking second in a 72-player field with a solid +0.178 course fit. He's the clear second-best player at a mid-range price.
Cameron Young
Gotterup's Course Fit Is Elite
Chris Gotterup owns the highest course fit adjustment among contenders at +0.224, paired with a +1.34 SG Total and 3.0% model win probability at +3248. His skill set aligns perfectly with what this track demands, making him an ideal each-way play.
Chris Gotterup
Jake Knapp Fits the Blueprint
Knapp's +0.201 course fit ranks second-best among the top 10 favorites, and his +1.30 SG Total supports a 3.0% model win probability at +3209. His power game translates well here, and the odds dramatically undervalue his chances.
Jake Knapp
Morikawa's Iron Play Demands Respect
Collin Morikawa ranks #2 in the field in SG Approach at +0.99 and carries a +1.79 SG Total — third-best overall. At +2754 with a 3.5% model win probability, this is an elite ball-striker at a price that doesn't reflect his ceiling.
Collin Morikawa
Si Woo Kim: Great Form, Poor Fit
Si Woo Kim's +1.67 SG Total ranks fourth in the field and his +0.74 SG Approach ranks fourth as well, but his course fit adjustment is a near-zero +0.002. At +3446 he still offers model edge (2.8% win prob), but his profile doesn't match the course as well as similarly-priced alternatives like Gotterup or Knapp.
Si Woo Kim Chris Gotterup Jake Knapp
Bridgeman Is the Top Longshot
Jacob Bridgeman at +5330 carries a +1.31 SG Total, ranks fifth in SG Putting (+0.57), and projects for a 19.7% top-10 probability — the highest among all longshots analyzed. He's the best lottery ticket in the field.
Jacob Bridgeman
Viktor Hovland Offers Sneaky Value
Hovland's +1.20 SG Total and 18.1% top-10 probability at +6229 represent significant each-way value. His overall game has been trending in the right direction, and at this price the risk-reward is highly favorable for top-5 or top-10 wagers.
Viktor Hovland
Sam Burns: Putter-Led Upside at Range
Sam Burns leads the entire field in SG Putting at +0.69 and sits at +4850. If the flatstick stays hot, his top-10 probability makes him a strong each-way candidate — hot putting can neutralize any other weaknesses over 72 holes.
Sam Burns
Min Woo Lee's All-Around Profile Shines
Min Woo Lee combines a +1.48 SG Total with the third-best course fit among favorites at +0.185, yielding a 3.2% model win probability at +3015. His blend of power and course suitability makes him one of the most well-rounded value plays in the 25/1-35/1 range.
Min Woo Lee
Complete Betting Board
| # | Player | Why They Could Win | Win Odds GolfData API |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Scottie Scheffler
USA - OWGR #1
FAVORITE
|
A +2.92 SG Total in a field this deep is borderline absurd, and the model spits out an 18.7% win number against a +435 price that implies roughly 18.7%. Runner-up at both Augusta and Hilton Head in his last two starts, with every SG category positive and approach humming at +1.04. The price is fair, not generous — but fair on Scheffler in 2026 still plays.
|
+433 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+433
Top 5+114
Top 10-171
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 2 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 2 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T22 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T12 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T4 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
18.8%
Top 10 Probability
63.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.15
Course History—
|
|||
| 2 |
Cameron Young
USA - OWGR #4
CONTENDER
|
Won THE PLAYERS in March and already has a T3 at the Masters and a T3 at Bay Hill on the 2026 ledger — this is a guy peaking right now. The course fit adjustment of +0.178 is among the best in the field, and the model's 6.71% win number translates to roughly +1390, dead on his price. Fair value on a player who's already proven he can win the biggest events on tour.
|
+1336 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+1336
Top 5+309
Top 10+156
Recent Form
Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 35 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T3 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): 1 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T66 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T3 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T52 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T7 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T55 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T41
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
7.0%
Top 10 Probability
39.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.18
Course History—
|
|||
| 3 |
Collin Morikawa
USA - OWGR #6
CONTENDER
|
Five of his last six starts T7 or better outside of one Phoenix clunker, including a Pebble Beach win and a T4 at Hilton Head two weeks ago. The +0.99 SG Approach is the kind of number that travels to any course, and at +2754 you're getting a top-6 OWGR player at a number usually reserved for streaky mid-tier guys. This is the cleanest value play on the board.
|
+2620 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+2620
Top 5+512
Top 10+243
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T4 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T7 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): 5 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T7 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): 1 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T54
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.7%
Top 10 Probability
29.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History—
|
|||
| 4 |
Min Woo Lee
USA - OWGR #31
CONTENDER
|
The +0.185 course fit adjustment is among the highest in the field, and the recent form (T2 Pebble, T6 Bay Hill, T3 Houston) says the breakthrough win is closer than the market thinks. At +3015 with a 3.21% model win number, there's a small edge — and the ball-striking profile fits courses that reward distance off the tee. Worth a sprinkle.
|
+3105 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+3105
Top 5+597
Top 10+281
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T60 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T3 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T6 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T12 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T2 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T28
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.1%
Top 10 Probability
26.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.18
Course History—
|
|||
| 5 |
Jake Knapp
USA - OWGR #36
CONTENDER
|
Quietly stacking top-10s — 11th at the Masters, T6 in Houston, 6th at Riviera, T8 Pebble, 8th at Phoenix. The course fit adjustment of +0.201 is elite for this field and the +3209 price is generous for a player whose floor right now is basically a top-25. Live longshot with a real ceiling.
|
+3159 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+3159
Top 5+621
Top 10+303
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T74 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 11 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T6 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): 6 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T8 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): 8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.1%
Top 10 Probability
24.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.20
Course History—
|
|||
| 6 |
Chris Gotterup
USA - OWGR #11
CONTENDER
|
Best course fit adjustment in this entire field at +0.224, and he already has a 2026 win on the resume from Phoenix. The +3248 number reflects market skepticism about a guy ranked 11th in OWGR, but the bombs-and-irons profile (+0.62 OTT, +0.45 APP) is exactly the build that keeps cashing in 2026. Bet him before the public catches up.
|
+3296 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+3296
Top 5+646
Top 10+309
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T24 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T6 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T56 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T18 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T37 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): 1
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.9%
Top 10 Probability
24.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.22
Course History—
|
|||
| 7 |
Si Woo Kim
USA - OWGR #25
CONTENDER
|
Quietly the best ball-striker in this value tier — +0.74 SG Approach and +0.68 off the tee, with a 3rd at Hilton Head and a T3 at Phoenix already in 2026. The course fit adjustment is essentially neutral, which is the only reason he's +3446 instead of +2500. Approach numbers like that win golf tournaments, and the price reflects name recognition more than ball-striking reality.
|
+3683 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+3683
Top 5+639
Top 10+291
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 3 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 47 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T10 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T7 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T50 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T42 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T13 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T34 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T45 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.6%
Top 10 Probability
25.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History—
|
|||
| 8 |
Maverick McNealy
USA - OWGR #30
CONTENDER
|
Seven of his last eight cuts made (lone Genesis MC the blemish) with four top-20s, but no real threat to win in any of them — that's the McNealy profile at +3814. The putter is doing the heavy lifting (+0.52 SG) while the irons sit at a pedestrian +0.28, which is why the model has him at just 2.56% to win despite a clean form line. Fine for top-20 plays, light on outright value.
|
+3707 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+3707
Top 5+697
Top 10+326
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T18 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T21 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T13 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T29 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.6%
Top 10 Probability
23.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.08
Course History—
|
|||
| 9 |
Tommy Fleetwood
USA - OWGR #7
CONTENDER
|
The +1.60 SG Total is the highest in this value tier and it's not particularly close, with +0.59 approach backing up a T8 at Players and a T4 at Pebble. At +3911 you're getting a top-10 OWGR player priced like a mid-tier flier — the model's 24.3% top-10 number says the outright is live too. Easiest value bet in this group.
|
+3834 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+3834
Top 5+655
Top 10+302
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T52 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T33 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T10 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T8 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): 49 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T7 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T4
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.5%
Top 10 Probability
24.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History-0.04
|
|||
| 10 |
Russell Henley
USA - OWGR #8
CONTENDER
|
T3 at the Masters and T6 at Bay Hill in his last six starts, with the field's second-best approach number at +0.60. The -0.077 course fit knock is the only thing keeping him out of the top tier of this market, and at +4015 that feels like an overcorrection for a player ranked 8th in the world. Solid outright at the number.
|
+4111 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+4111
Top 5+710
Top 10+327
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T3 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T6 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T19
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.4%
Top 10 Probability
23.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.08
Course History-0.02
|
|||
| 11 |
Nicolai Hojgaard
USA - OWGR #37
CONTENDER
|
The +0.203 course fit adjustment is one of the three best in the field, and the recent body of work — 2nd in Houston, T3 Phoenix, T6 Cognizant — says the bomber profile is firing. Missed cut at Augusta is the wart, but at +4384 with this fit grade, the model's 21.4% top-10 is doing real work. Live outright dart.
|
+4374 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+4374
Top 5+801
Top 10+371
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T55 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): 2 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T55 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T27 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T6 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.2%
Top 10 Probability
21.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.20
Course History—
|
|||
| 12 |
Sam Burns
USA - OWGR #29
CONTENDER
|
Three missed cuts in his last eight is ugly, but the makes include a T7 at Augusta and a T6 at Pebble — when he shows up, he contends. The +0.69 putting number is the field's best in this tier and gives him the variance to win any week he's striping it. Volatile +4850 swing, not a confidence play.
|
+4712 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+4712
Top 5+844
Top 10+386
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T7 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T6 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.1%
Top 10 Probability
20.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.12
Course History—
|
|||
| 13 |
Hideki Matsuyama
USA - OWGR #15
CONTENDER
|
Runner-up at Phoenix and a T8 at Pebble are the headliners, and the +0.69 SG Approach is elite-tier iron play in any field. The driver (+0.07) is the obvious leak and the reason he's +4566 instead of +2500, but Hideki at this number with these irons has been a profitable bet for a decade. Take the price.
|
+4850 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+4850
Top 5+811
Top 10+371
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T21 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T27 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T41 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T28 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T8 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): 2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.0%
Top 10 Probability
21.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History-0.02
|
|||
| 14 |
Kurt Kitayama
USA - OWGR #34
CONTENDER
|
Runner-up at Riviera and a T8 at Hilton Head are the anchors, and the +0.145 course fit grade matches the bomb-and-gouge profile this venue tends to reward. The around-green and putting numbers (-0.01 and -0.03) cap the ceiling unless something clicks on the greens, but +5117 for a guy with two top-10s in his last seven is fair. Sprinkle territory.
|
+4985 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+4985
Top 5+889
Top 10+409
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T8 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 51 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T60 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T18 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T2 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T48 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.0%
Top 10 Probability
19.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.14
Course History—
|
|||
| 15 |
Jacob Bridgeman
USA - OWGR #19
VALUE
|
Won at Riviera in February and followed it with a T18 at Bay Hill, a T5 at THE PLAYERS, and a T14 at Valspar (with a T8 at Pebble the week before the Riviera triumph) — that's a 25-year-old playing like a top-20 player in the world. The model agrees, slotting him at 1.84% to win, which makes the +5330 board price slightly generous. The OWGR ranking of 19 is not a typo.
|
+5320 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+5320
Top 5+874
Top 10+399
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T14 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T5 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T18 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): 1 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T8 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.9%
Top 10 Probability
20.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History—
|
|||
| 16 |
Michael Thorbjornsen
USA - OWGR #59
VALUE
|
Late add to the field after Patrick Cantlay's WD, but the underlying numbers say this Stanford product belongs. The +0.57 SG OTT ranks 7th in the field — Thorbjornsen averages nearly 11 yards over field average off the tee, exactly the bomb-and-gouge profile this stadium course rewards. The +0.16 course fit adjustment is one of the better marks among longshots, and a T3 at Phoenix in February proves the ceiling exists. Recent form is choppy (T13 Zurich, T33 RBC, MC Valero), but at +5456 with the model painting a 19.1% top-10 number, he's a live place-market dart at OWGR #59.
|
+5456 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+5456
Top 5+932
Top 10+425
Recent Form
Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T13 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T14 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T22 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T33 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T78 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
19.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.16
Course History—
|
|||
| 17 |
Adam Scott
USA - OWGR #54
VALUE
|
A 4th at Riviera and a T11 at Bay Hill at age 45 is not normal aging-curve behavior. The +0.71 SG Approach grade and +0.121 course fit adjustment make the +6016 price genuinely playable for a top-20 ticket, even if the win equity (1.64%) is thin. Live longshot in the matchup pools more than the outright market.
|
+5870 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+5870
Top 5+994
Top 10+443
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T24 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T56 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T11 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): 4
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.7%
Top 10 Probability
18.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.12
Course History+0.05
|
|||
| 18 |
Viktor Hovland
USA - OWGR #26
VALUE
|
Best raw SG Total in this longshot tier at +1.20, and yet he's drifted to +6229 because the recent results (T42, T18, MC, T13, T13) read like a player searching. The model still gives him an 18.1% top-10 number, which is contender territory disguised as a longshot price. If you believe in the underlying numbers over the eye test, this is the value play of the tier.
|
+6131 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+6131
Top 5+999
Top 10+453
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T18 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T13 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T41 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T58 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T10
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
18.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History—
|
|||
| 19 |
Justin Rose
USA - OWGR #5
VALUE
|
A T3 at the Masters from the world's 5th-ranked player priced at +6209 is a market inefficiency worth flagging. The full SG profile is positive across the board (+1.05 total, no weakness), but the -0.034 course history hint and back-to-back missed cuts at Riviera and Bay Hill are the reason he's drifted this far. Top-10 at +496 is the better play than the outright.
|
+6338 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+6338
Top 5+1105
Top 10+497
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T3 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T37
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
16.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History-0.03
|
|||
| 20 |
Harris English
USA - OWGR #18
VALUE
|
A T4 at Hilton Head in his last start, and the putter has gone fully nuclear at +0.60 SG — that's the elite skill carrying him right now. The problem: only +0.13 SG Approach, which is a real concern at a championship venue. Take the top-20 (+250-ish range) over the +6596 outright; the win path requires the irons to show up, and they haven't.
|
+6604 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+6604
Top 5+1052
Top 10+454
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T4 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T30 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T22 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T24 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T28
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
18.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History+0.03
|
|||
| 21 |
Jordan Spieth
USA - OWGR #50
VALUE
|
The +0.091 course fit adjustment is the highest in this entire longshot group, and he's quietly stacked T12-T11-T11 results at Augusta, Bay Hill, and Valspar. Putter is back to +0.24 SG and the short game is humming at +0.17 around the green — this looks more like 2017 Spieth than the lost version. At +7009, the outright is a legitimate sprinkle.
|
+7164 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+7164
Top 5+1157
Top 10+500
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T63 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T11 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T11 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T12 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T29 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
16.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.09
Course History-0.01
|
|||
| 22 |
J.J. Spaun
USA - OWGR #10
VALUE
|
Won the Valero Texas Open in April, but has missed four of his last seven cuts otherwise — this is a boom-or-bust profile in a tuxedo. The +0.77 SG Approach is the second-best iron number among these longshots, so the ceiling is real at +6975. Just understand you're paying for variance, not consistency.
|
+7182 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+7182
Top 5+1139
Top 10+493
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): 1 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T24 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T45
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
16.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History—
|
|||
| 23 |
Sahith Theegala
USA - OWGR #74
VALUE
|
Lowest SG Total in this batch at +0.85 and he's coming off a stretch of T24-T25-T10-MC — there's no momentum signal here. The +7733 price reflects a player whose ball-striking has slipped to merely average (+0.37 approach). Pass on the outright; if you must play him, the top-20 at his model number (30.6%) is the only spot.
|
+8351 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+8351
Top 5+1272
Top 10+560
Recent Form
Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T24 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T10 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T6 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T22 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T60 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
15.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History—
|
|||
| 24 |
Rickie Fowler
USA - OWGR #56
VALUE
|
Both the course fit (+0.032) and course history (+0.018) adjustments tilt positive, which is rare for a longshot in this range. The recent form is choppy — two missed cuts mixed with a T8 at Hilton Head and a T9 at Bay Hill — but at +9275 with a 14.8% top-10 model number, the outright is fine and the place markets are where the value actually lives.
|
+8829 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+8829
Top 5+1339
Top 10+582
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T8 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T42 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T9 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T28 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T19 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
14.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History+0.02
|
|||
| 25 |
Ryan Gerard
USA - OWGR #33
VALUE
|
World #33 priced at +8153 is the kind of number that demands a second look, and the +0.65 SG Approach backs up the ranking. The issue is the form line — two missed cuts in the last seven and zero top-20s since February. Hard to see a win path until he proves the iron numbers translate to weekend play, but he's a defensible dart.
|
+8977 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+8977
Top 5+1319
Top 10+559
Recent Form
Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 34 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T38 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T27 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T23 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T28 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T45
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
15.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History—
|
|||
| 26 |
Keith Mitchell
USA - OWGR #108
VALUE
|
Course fit adjustment of +0.129 is one of the best marks in the entire longshot tier, and the +0.57 SG OTT profile fits a bomber's setup perfectly. Problem is OWGR #108 and a putter bleeding -0.11 strokes per round — the ceiling is a top-20, not a trophy. Pass on the +9409 outright, consider him only in deep-field placement pools.
|
+9046 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9046
Top 5+1434
Top 10+614
Recent Form
Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T30 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T14 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T46 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T33 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T6 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T52 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T41
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
14.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.13
Course History—
|
|||
| 27 |
Akshay Bhatia
USA - OWGR #24
VALUE
|
Won at Bay Hill in March and has six top-16s in his last seven starts outside of one Augusta missed cut — this is one of the hottest players in the field, full stop. World #24 with 1.04 SG Total and a 14.6% top-10 number, yet he's sitting at +8963. That's a mispricing worth attacking, especially in the top-10 market at +584.
|
+9060 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9060
Top 5+1322
Top 10+564
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): 1 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T16 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T6 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
15.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History—
|
|||
| 28 |
Ben Griffin
USA - OWGR #16
VALUE
|
World #16 at +10035 looks like value on the surface, but three missed cuts in a four-week stretch through March is the reason. The short game is elite (+0.36 ARG, +0.38 putting) and the model still gives him a 14.7% top-10 shot. Better as a top-20 play at +31% implied than chasing the outright.
|
+9088 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9088
Top 5+1335
Top 10+561
Recent Form
Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T10 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T33 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T41 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T37 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T28
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
15.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History—
|
|||
| 29 |
Keegan Bradley
USA - OWGR #27
VALUE
|
The Ryder Cup captain's form has cratered — two missed cuts plus a T55 and a T50 in his last six before steadying at Augusta and Hilton Head. Course history adjustment is actually negative (-0.029), and the SG Approach has dropped to a pedestrian +0.18. At +9672 with a name-brand price tag, this is a fade.
|
+9424 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9424
Top 5+1470
Top 10+625
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T12 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T21 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T55 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T50 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T29
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
13.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.08
Course History-0.03
|
|||
| 30 |
Ryo Hisatsune
USA - OWGR #57
VALUE
|
Quietly building one of the best stretches of his PGA Tour career: T8-T13-T8-T10 mixed in over his last eight starts, with +0.49 SG Approach driving it. At +9515 he's the kind of name nobody's talking about heading into the week, and the 14.2% top-10 model number says he should be. Live longshot at a price that reflects zero buzz.
|
+9439 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9439
Top 5+1411
Top 10+599
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T60 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T8 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T30 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T33 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T45 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T8 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T10
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
14.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History—
|
|||
| 31 |
Pierceson Coody
USA - OWGR #53
VALUE
|
Course fit adjustment of +0.173 is the highest number in this entire batch and one of the best in the field — the model thinks the setup fits him like a glove. The catch: a WD, two missed cuts, and a T55 sprinkled through his recent log mean trusting him with outright money is a leap. Sprinkle territory at +10156, nothing more.
|
+9485 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9485
Top 5+1433
Top 10+618
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): WD • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T55 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T16 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T48 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T10
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
13.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.17
Course History—
|
|||
| 32 |
Sepp Straka
USA - OWGR #13
VALUE
|
World #13 priced at +10538 should be the value play of the longshot tier, except his post-Players form reads MC-T41-T42 and the iron play has quietly slipped from elite to merely good. The T2 at Pebble and T8 at Players prove the ceiling is still there, and a +0.54 SG Approach baseline travels anywhere. Top-10 at +651 is the smarter ticket than chasing the outright.
|
+9515 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9515
Top 5+1454
Top 10+614
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T8 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T13 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T50 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T2 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
14.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History—
|
|||
| 33 |
Shane Lowry
USA - OWGR #35
VALUE
|
A T2 at Cognizant and a T8 at Pebble are the only signs of life in an otherwise ugly 2026 — three missed cuts in his last seven, including Players and Bay Hill. The +0.65 SG Approach number is still real and keeps him relevant in top-20 markets, but at +10501 to win you're paying for a player whose ceiling has been MIA for two months. Pass on the outright, consider the +635 top-10 if you must.
|
+9546 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9546
Top 5+1460
Top 10+620
Recent Form
Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T30 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T2 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T24 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
13.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.01
|
|||
| 34 |
Alex Smalley
USA - OWGR #104
VALUE
|
Runner-up at the Zurich two weeks ago and hasn't missed a cut since January — that's eight straight made cuts with a T2, T14, T19, and T24 in the mix. The +0.41 SG Approach is legit and the +10335 price doesn't reflect a guy playing this consistently. Top-20 ticket at +28% implied is the sharper angle than the outright lottery.
|
+9672 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9672
Top 5+1546
Top 10+654
Recent Form
Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T2 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T14 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T46 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T24 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T52 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T19 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T35
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
13.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History—
|
|||
| 35 |
Gary Woodland
USA - OWGR #45
VALUE
|
Won the Houston Open in March and backed it up with a T8 at Harbour Town — this is the best stretch of golf Woodland has played since his pre-surgery days. The +0.173 course fit adjustment is tied for the highest number in the field, and +0.48 SG OTT plays anywhere there's room off the tee. At +11011 with this much going right, he's the longshot I'm actually writing tickets on.
|
+10174 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10174
Top 5+1641
Top 10+697
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T8 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T33 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): 1 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T14 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T64
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
12.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.17
Course History+0.02
|
|||
| 36 |
Justin Thomas
USA - OWGR #17
VALUE
|
Two-time major champion, +10909, and the model still only gives him a 0.91% win number — that tells you everything about where his ball-striking has gone. The +0.27 SG Approach is a shadow of peak JT, and a T77 at Harbour Town two weeks ago is a screaming red flag. Hard fade at this price unless you're nostalgic.
|
+10653 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10653
Top 5+1691
Top 10+713
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T77 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T30 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T8 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
12.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History-0.01
|
|||
| 37 |
Jordan Smith
USA - OWGR #67
VALUE
|
Solo 3rd at Valspar is the headline, but the underlying profile — +0.55 OTT, +0.43 Approach, +0.095 course fit — is what makes the +11461 price interesting. The downside: three missed cuts in his last six and a putter that's been a net negative all year. Top-20 at +27.9% implied is the cleanest way to play him.
|
+11136 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+11136
Top 5+1598
Top 10+670
Recent Form
Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T44 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): 3 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T23 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T16
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
13.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History—
|
|||
| 38 |
Matt McCarty
USA - OWGR #47
VALUE
|
Four made cuts in his last six with a T10-T12-T24 stretch through the Florida swing and Augusta — McCarty is quietly stacking results against elite fields. The +0.28 SG Putting is the differentiator in a tier where most guys grade flat with the flatstick. Negative course fit (-0.023) caps the enthusiasm, but +11596 for a top-50 OWGR player trending up is fair top-20 value.
|
+11852 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+11852
Top 5+1703
Top 10+710
Recent Form
Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T10 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T12 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T24 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T39 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T41 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T24 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T67 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
12.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History—
|
|||
| 39 |
Sam Stevens
USA - OWGR #46
VALUE
|
A +0.082 course fit adjustment paired with a solo 5th in Houston and T13 at the Zurich says the model isn't reaching here. Stevens grades positive across all four SG categories — rare in this tier — and at +10789 he's one of the few longshots whose price reflects neither his OWGR (#46) nor his recent ball-striking. Live top-20 dart at +27.6% implied.
|
+11997 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+11997
Top 5+1627
Top 10+672
Recent Form
Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T13 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T65 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T24 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): 5 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): 58 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T16 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T55 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T35
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
13.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.08
Course History—
|
|||
| 40 |
Jason Day
USA - OWGR #39
VALUE
|
The short game and putter are doing all the work — +0.34 around the greens and +0.43 with the flatstick — while the irons (+0.06) have completely abandoned him. That's not a profile that wins on a championship setup, and the negative course history and fit adjustments confirm it. T12 at Augusta keeps him interesting for top-20 lottery tickets, but the +12246 outright is a stay-away.
|
+13087 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+13087
Top 5+1779
Top 10+755
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T6 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T59 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
11.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History-0.02
|
|||
| 41 |
Sudarshan Yellamaraju
USA - OWGR #113
VALUE
|
T5 at THE PLAYERS and T6 in Houston are not the kind of results a +13757 longshot is supposed to be posting, yet here we are. The +0.101 course fit adjustment is among the friendliest in this group, and the model's 24.8% top-20 number is genuinely useful for place-market plays. Win equity is thin, but he's miles underpriced for finishing positions.
|
+13204 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+13204
Top 5+1948
Top 10+796
Recent Form
Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 34 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T52 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T14 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T6 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T5 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T37 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T17 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T54
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
11.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History—
|
|||
| 42 |
Alex Noren
USA - OWGR #22
VALUE
|
World No. 22 with +0.83 SG Total and the best putter (+0.37) in this longshot tier — and the market has him at +14018. The catch: a -0.072 course fit adjustment and a profile that leans short-game over ball-striking, which is why the win number sits at 0.71%. Reasonable top-20 ticket, hard pass on outright.
|
+14084 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14084
Top 5+1962
Top 10+802
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T65 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T30 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T30 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T12 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T29
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
11.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History-0.01
|
|||
| 43 |
Ricky Castillo
USA - OWGR #86
VALUE
|
Won the Puerto Rico Open in March and added a 5th at Cognizant — that's two top-fives in his last six starts for a guy listed at +14463. The course fit bump (+0.093) is real, but the Approach number (+0.04) is what's keeping him in the longshot tier. Live for top-20, not outright.
|
+14220 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14220
Top 5+2105
Top 10+848
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T60 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T44 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T46 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T70 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): 1 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): 5
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
10.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.09
Course History—
|
|||
| 44 |
Andrew Novak
USA - OWGR #52
LONGSHOT
|
T10-T16-MC-T14 over the last month is a steady-but-unspectacular run from a player whose ceiling has been on display all season. +0.32 Approach and a balanced profile make him a fine top-20 dart at +17241, but the model's 0.58% win number is honest about the lack of an outlier skill. Pricing is roughly fair.
|
+16293 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+16293
Top 5+2346
Top 10+944
Recent Form
Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T10 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T14 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T55 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T38 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T47 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T48 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
9.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History—
|
|||
| 45 |
Corey Conners
USA - OWGR #44
LONGSHOT
|
+0.49 SG Approach is elite-level iron play, and yet Conners is +15566 because the putter (-0.07) keeps capping his ceiling — same story it's been for three years. T13 at THE PLAYERS and T14 at Valspar say the ball-striking is sharp; the model's 0.64% win number says don't expect the flatstick to cooperate for four rounds. Place-market only.
|
+16801 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+16801
Top 5+2238
Top 10+896
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T55 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T49 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T14 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T33 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T37 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T70 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
10.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.00
Course History—
|
|||
| 46 |
Ryan Fox
USA - OWGR #55
LONGSHOT
|
Two top-25s and a T7 at Riviera in his last seven, paired with a +0.097 course fit bump that the market hasn't fully baked in. The profile is the issue — no SG category above +0.18 means Fox needs everything firing simultaneously to win at +17810. Better as a top-20 play than an outright.
|
+16994 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+16994
Top 5+2390
Top 10+961
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T7 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T24 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
9.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History—
|
|||
| 47 |
Harry Hall
USA - OWGR #64
LONGSHOT
|
The +0.57 Putting number is genuinely elite — Hall is one of the best putters in the field — but the rest of the bag (-0.24 OTT, +0.14 Approach) is why he's sitting at +18534. A T9 at Bay Hill proves the ceiling exists on a tough setup, though three missed cuts in his last six tells you the floor is a problem. Top-10 ticket at +881 is the only play here.
|
+16994 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+16994
Top 5+2239
Top 10+872
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T65 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T9 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T24 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
10.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History—
|
|||
| 48 |
Daniel Berger
USA - OWGR #40
LONGSHOT
|
Runner-up at Bay Hill is the result that matters here — Berger's iron play (+0.58 Approach) is back to peak-era levels. The around-the-green and putting numbers (-0.19, -0.12) are why he's +16160 instead of half that, and a missed cut at Augusta cooled the market further. There's a win-equity argument buried in this profile if the short game stabilizes.
|
+17092 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+17092
Top 5+2216
Top 10+898
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T66 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): 2 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T32 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T75 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T16
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
10.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.01
|
|||
| 49 |
Taylor Pendrith
USA - OWGR #82
LONGSHOT
|
Three missed cuts in his last five and the Approach number has cratered to +0.12 — this is a player in the middle of a genuine slump. The +0.133 course fit adjustment is the best in the field, which is the only reason the model still gives him a 21.8% top-20. Wait for the form to turn before backing him outright.
|
+17495 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+17495
Top 5+2266
Top 10+907
Recent Form
Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T71 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T46 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T38 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T45 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T34
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
9.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.13
Course History—
|
|||
| 50 |
Aldrich Potgieter
USA - OWGR #77
LONGSHOT
|
The +0.29 course fit adjustment is the biggest in this entire tier and it's not close — this track rewards his +0.56 OTT bombing in a way most don't. The catch: SG Total is literally 0.0 because the short game (-0.30 ARG, -0.19 Putting) is a disaster. The 5th at Riviera shows what happens when the putter behaves; at +21561 he's a defensible course-fit dart, nothing more.
|
+18948 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+18948
Top 5+2925
Top 10+1214
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): 5 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T60 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.29
Course History—
|
|||
| 51 |
Bud Cauley
USA - OWGR #65
LONGSHOT
|
Approach play is doing all the heavy lifting at +0.35, and the 7th at Hilton Head confirms Cauley still has a gear when the irons click. Problem is the putter (-0.02) and a -0.019 course fit adjustment that says this isn't his ideal setup. At +18887, you're paying for one elite skill and hoping the flatstick cooperates — that's a thin thesis.
|
+19572 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+19572
Top 5+2423
Top 10+959
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 7 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T21 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): 74 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T18 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T37 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T68
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
9.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History—
|
|||
| 52 |
Matt Wallace
USA - OWGR #69
LONGSHOT
|
T2 at the Valero three weeks ago (in a three-way tie behind J.J. Spaun) is the only number that matters in this writeup — Wallace is playing the best golf of anyone priced above 200-1. The +0.27 Approach and +0.23 Around-Green combo travels, and at +22456 the market is heavily discounting that Texas finish as a fluke. It's not a lock, but it's the sharpest longshot on this board.
|
+22288 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+22288
Top 5+2938
Top 10+1115
Recent Form
Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T30 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T55 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T2 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T51 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T40 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T40
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
8.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History—
|
|||
| 53 |
Max Greyserman
USA - OWGR #67
LONGSHOT
|
Four missed cuts in his last six starts, including the Masters and Players, and the SG Total has collapsed to +0.17. The +0.28 Putting is keeping him from being completely unplayable, but this is a player you fade right now, not back. +25324 is generous and still not interesting.
|
+23522 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+23522
Top 5+3298
Top 10+1336
Recent Form
Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T18 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T24 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T37 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
7.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History—
|
|||
| 54 |
Max Homa
USA - OWGR #118
LONGSHOT
|
T9 at the Masters was the first sign of a pulse from a player who's been a complete zero for 18 months, and the OWGR has cratered to #118 to prove it. The underlying numbers (+0.34 SG Total, +0.18 Putting) are pedestrian, and one good week at Augusta doesn't undo a year of missed cuts. Pass at +22542 — the name is doing the pricing, not the form.
|
+23710 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+23710
Top 5+2955
Top 10+1179
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T69 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T9 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T13 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T37 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T66
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
7.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History—
|
|||
| 55 |
J.T. Poston
USA - OWGR #80
LONGSHOT
|
Best raw SG Total in this group at +0.50, led by a respectable +0.21 Approach mark, yet the course fit adjustment knocks him back -0.05. The recent form is a coin flip — T21 Valero and T35 Phoenix sandwiched between three missed cuts — and the +28608 number reflects a profile with no clear edge. Skip the win bet, the top-20 at +18.5% model equity is the only playable angle.
|
+25651 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+25651
Top 5+3265
Top 10+1236
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T60 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T21 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T50 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T37 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T35
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
7.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History—
|
|||
Daily Matchups coming soon.