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// BETTING PREVIEW - MAY 28-31
Charles Schwab Challenge
May 28-31, 2026 | Fort Worth, Texas
⛅ Tournament Weather Forecast
Expect partly cloudy skies with highs in the 83F range and light winds around 5 mph throughout the week. Some rain is possible, making for ideal scoring conditions.
Miller
- Win:TBD-
- Top 5:TBD-
- Top 10:TBD-
Kevin
- Win:TBD-
- Top 5:TBD-
- Top 10:TBD-
Andrew
- Win:TBD-
- Top 5:TBD-
- Top 10:TBD-
Kcon
- Win:TBD-
- Top 5:TBD-
- Top 10:TBD-
Parbeh
- Win:TBD-
- Top 5:TBD-
- Top 10:TBD-
JB
- Win:TBD-
- Top 5:TBD-
- Top 10:TBD-
Ludvig Aberg towers over this Charles Schwab Challenge field with a massive +2.04 SG Total and an 8.8% model win probability — more than double the next closest competitor — making him the clear alpha play at +1039. Below him, a cluster of value emerges in the +3000 to +4000 range: J.J. Spaun ranks #3 in overall strokes gained (+1.27) and #2 in SG Approach (+0.83) at +3547, while Ben Griffin — the defending champion — leads the field in putting (+0.56 SG Putting) and carries a 3.2% model win probability at +3068. With Colonial Country Club rewarding precision ball-striking and putting on small, undulating greens, this week's data points to a clear hierarchy of value plays beneath Aberg's dominance.
Aberg Is the Unquestioned Top Dog
Ludvig Aberg's +2.04 SG Total leads the field by a staggering 0.68 strokes over the next-best player, and his 8.8% model win probability dwarfs the implied 0.1% from his +1039 odds. He also ranks #1 in SG Approach at +0.86 — a critical skill at Colonial's tight, demanding approach shots.
Ludvig Aberg
J.J. Spaun: Elite Ball-Striker at Value Odds
Spaun ranks #3 in SG Total (+1.27) and #2 in SG Approach (+0.83), yet his +3547 odds imply far less than his 2.7% model win probability. After a T6 finish here in 2025, he has proven he can contend at Colonial when he avoids the cut — a boom-or-bust profile worth backing at this price.
J.J. Spaun
Defending Champ Griffin Leads in Putting
Ben Griffin won this event in 2025 and leads the entire field in SG Putting at +0.56. His model win probability of 3.2% and +1.17 SG Total make him a legitimate contender at +3068, and his course history adjustment confirms his comfort level at Colonial.
Ben Griffin
Russell Henley Offers Best Risk-Reward
Henley's +1.36 SG Total ranks #2 in the field and his 4.3% model win probability is the second-highest, yet he sits at +2247. He also ranks #5 in SG Approach (+0.53) and carries the best course fit adjustment among top contenders at +0.124, making him the most compelling outright value play on the board.
Russell Henley
Harry Hall Is the Primo Longshot
At +5576, Harry Hall boasts a +0.90 SG Total (better than some players 50 spots shorter in odds), ranks #5 in SG Putting (+0.46), and carries a 16.1% top-10 probability. That top-10 number makes him a strong each-way or top-10 market play alongside his outright price.
Harry Hall
Keegan Bradley: Hidden SG Profile at +5456
Bradley's +0.86 SG Total matches players priced 20-30 spots shorter, and his 15.4% top-10 probability suggests he's being overlooked at +5456. Colonial's emphasis on accuracy and course management plays into his veteran skill set, making him a sneaky contender.
Keegan Bradley
MacIntyre Pairs Putter with Recent Form
Robert MacIntyre ranks #3 in SG Putting (+0.49) and #5 in SG Total (+1.25), with a T6 here in 2025 showing he's figured out Colonial. His 2.8% model win probability offers clear edge against his +3491 price, and his well-rounded game suits a course that demands no weaknesses.
Robert MacIntyre
Justin Thomas: Big Name, Real Value
Thomas sits at #4 in SG Total (+1.25) with a 3.2% model win probability, yet +3017 odds significantly underrate his chances. While his -0.036 course fit is slightly negative, his elite ball-striking pedigree and comfort on tight, traditional courses make him a worthy play at this number.
Justin Thomas
Bud Cauley: Best Top-10 Probability Among Longshots
Cauley's 16.2% top-10 probability leads all longshots at +5345 or longer, backed by a solid +0.75 SG Total. He's a top-10/top-20 market specialist at this price point, and his accuracy-first game maps well to Colonial's narrow fairways.
Bud Cauley
Smalley's Course History Raises Red Flags
Despite ranking #7 in SG Total (+1.17), Alex Smalley has a missed cut and a withdrawal in his last two trips to Colonial and a slightly negative course fit (-0.016). At +3892, there are better options in this range like Spaun and MacIntyre who have proven they can perform here.
Alex Smalley
Complete Betting Board
| # | Player | Why They Could Win | Win Odds GolfData API |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ludvig Aberg
USA - OWGR #13
CONTENDER
|
Six straight top-21s including T4s at the PGA Championship and RBC Heritage, and the underlying numbers are even better than the results — 2.04 SG Total with a +0.86 approach number that fits Colonial's iron-heavy demands perfectly. The model gives him an 8.78% win equity, easily the best in the field, and at +1039 he's actually fair-to-cheap for a player this dialed. No course history is the only nit, and it's not a real one. |
+1039 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+1039
Top 5+290
Top 10+161
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T4 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T8 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T4 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T21 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T5 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T5
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
8.8%
Top 10 Probability
38.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.12
Course History—
| |||
| 2 |
Russell Henley
USA - OWGR #12
CONTENDER
|
The course-fit adjustment of +0.124 is the largest among the contenders here, and that's not an accident — Henley's profile (precision irons, tidy around the greens, no weaknesses) is exactly what Hogan's Alley asks for. The PGA missed cut looks ugly, but bracketed by a Masters T3 and a Players T13, the body of work is elite. At +2247 with a 4.26% model win rate, he's a legitimate value play, not a name-recognition bet. |
+2247 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023T16
Win+2247
Top 5+511
Top 10+263
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T49 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T3 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.3%
Top 10 Probability
27.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.12
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 3 |
Rickie Fowler
USA - OWGR #38
CONTENDER
|
Runner-up at the Truist three weeks ago, and the Colonial history backs it up: T6 in 2023, T16 last year, plus a T8 at Hilton Head and T9 in Miami baked into the recent form. The PGA T60 is the only blemish in a stretch that screams course-horse-coming-into-form. At +3015 with 22.1% top-10 equity, the price is treating him like a name, not a player who's actively trending up at a venue that suits him. |
+3015 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T16
2024T37
2023T6
Win+3015
Top 5+684
Top 10+352
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T60 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T2 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T9 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T8 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T42
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.2%
Top 10 Probability
22.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 4 |
Justin Thomas
USA - OWGR #16
CONTENDER
|
Coming off a T4 at the PGA Championship with 1.25 SG Total and the best around-green number in this tier at +0.33. The catch: zero Colonial reps on the card and a -0.036 course fit, which is why the +3017 price exists despite the OWGR #16 tag. Buy the form, but understand you're paying contender money for a player the model has at just 3.21% to win. Lean Top 10 over outright. |
+3017 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+3017
Top 5+698
Top 10+363
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T4 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 13 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T77 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T30 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.2%
Top 10 Probability
21.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 5 |
Ben Griffin
USA - OWGR #17
CONTENDER
|
Defending champion. He won this event in 2025, and the recent form — a 3rd in Miami, T10 at Zurich, T14 at the PGA — says the game is right where it needs to be. The +0.56 SG Putting leads this group by a country mile, and at a venue where he's already proven he can close, +3068 is a gift. Course history adjustment is only +0.022, which feels light for a defending champ; the market may be sleeping. |
+3068 |
Tournament History & Odds
20251
2024MC
2023T52
Win+3068
Top 5+664
Top 10+336
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T14 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T63 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): 3 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T10 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T33 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.2%
Top 10 Probability
22.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 6 |
Robert MacIntyre
USA - OWGR #15
CONTENDER
|
T6 here last year and a Valero T2 last month show the Texas swing and Colonial setup work for him, but the PGA MC and Truist T60 are real concerns about current form. The +0.49 putting and +0.54 OTT are doing all the work in his SG profile — the +0.05 approach number is a problem at a course that demands iron precision. At +3491 you're betting on the course fit overriding a cold stretch. Pass for me. |
+3491 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T6
2024MC
2023NA
Win+3491
Top 5+737
Top 10+378
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T60 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T2 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): 4
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.8%
Top 10 Probability
20.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 7 |
J.J. Spaun
USA - OWGR #9
CONTENDER
|
The +0.83 SG Approach is tied for the best in this entire group and exactly the skill Colonial pays out on. He won the Valero in April and posted a T5 at the Truist two weeks back, so the ceiling is obviously there. The PGA missed cut and -0.16 putting are the warts, and at OWGR #9 with a +3547 price, the market is fading him hard. The iron play alone makes him a strong outright at this number. |
+3547 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T6
2024MC
2023T63
Win+3547
Top 5+742
Top 10+377
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T5 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T14 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): 1 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.7%
Top 10 Probability
21.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History-0.04
| |||
| 8 |
Alex Smalley
USA - OWGR #41
CONTENDER
|
T2 at the PGA Championship in his most recent start, and that wasn't a fluke — T7 in Miami, T2 at Zurich, T14 at Valero all came in the last two months. The 1.17 SG Total with a +0.48 approach number is contender-tier production hiding behind a value price. The Colonial history (MC, WD, T40) is genuinely bad, but a player this hot deserves better than +3892. Smallest-stakes outright, larger top-20 at +145-ish equity. |
+3892 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024WD
2023T40
Win+3892
Top 5+815
Top 10+413
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T2 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T17 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T7 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T2 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T14 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T46 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.5%
Top 10 Probability
19.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 9 |
Hideki Matsuyama
USA - OWGR #20
CONTENDER
|
World No. 20 with a +0.55 SG Approach and +0.36 around the greens — that's the exact precision-iron profile Colonial pays out on, and at +4280 he's the best win-price value in this field. The T12 at Augusta and T26 at the PGA show the game is sharp for big events, even if the T36 here in '25 is unremarkable. Model has him at 18.2% top 10, which feels low. Underpriced for a player with this ceiling. |
+4280 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T36
2024NA
2023NA
Win+4280
Top 5+895
Top 10+450
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 71 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T53 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T21 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T27
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.3%
Top 10 Probability
18.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 10 |
Ryo Hisatsune
USA - OWGR #59
CONTENDER
|
T6 at Colonial last year and a positive course-history adjustment despite only two career starts here — the fit is real. He's also stringing together quiet competence: T19 at Byron Nelson last week, T8 at Valero, T13 at THE PLAYERS, with a tidy +0.38 SG Approach and +0.35 off the tee. At +4942 with a 17% top-10 model number, this is a defensible top-20 ticket more than a winner. Worth a small sprinkle outright, real value in the placement markets. |
+4942 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T6
2024MC
2023NA
Win+4942
Top 5+987
Top 10+488
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T45 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T65 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T60 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T8 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T30 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.0%
Top 10 Probability
17.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 11 |
Bud Cauley
USA - OWGR #67
VALUE
|
Finished 3rd at Colonial in 2025 and the model rewards it with the largest course-history adjustment in this tier at +0.055. The recent form backs the fit — solo 7th at Harbour Town, T26 at the PGA, T21 at Valero — and the +0.46 SG Approach is the engine. At +5345 with a 16.2% top-10, he's a legitimate placement play even if the outright is a stretch. This is the longshot in the group with actual signal, not vibes. |
+5345 |
Tournament History & Odds
20253
2024NA
2023NA
Win+5345
Top 5+1063
Top 10+518
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 7 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T21 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): 74 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
16.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.06
| |||
| 12 |
Keith Mitchell
USA - OWGR #95
VALUE
|
Solo 5th at the Byron Nelson last week is the headline, but the underlying numbers say fade. The -0.112 course-fit adjustment is the worst in this tier by a wide margin, the around-green (-0.06) and putter (-0.09) are both red, and Colonial's premium on touch and precision doesn't match his bomber profile. Two career T36/T37 finishes here aren't telling you he's about to break through. At +5400, the price reflects recency bias more than the fit. Pass. |
+5400 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T36
2024T37
2023NA
Win+5400
Top 5+1089
Top 10+534
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 5 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T65 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T55 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T30 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T14 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T46
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
15.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.11
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 13 |
Keegan Bradley
USA - OWGR #35
VALUE
|
Runner-up at Colonial in 2024 and the model gives him a +0.029 course-history bump, which is the case for the price. The problem: he missed the cut at the PGA Championship two weeks ago and the recent form is messy — T49 Miami, T55 Valspar, T50 PLAYERS. The +0.86 SG Total still profiles as a contender and the +0.24 around-greens fits Colonial, but you're betting on the 2024 version showing up. At +5456, I'd rather have him top-10 (+550) than outright. |
+5456 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T2
2023NA
Win+5456
Top 5+1119
Top 10+550
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T19 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T49 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T12 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T21 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T55 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T50
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
15.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 14 |
Harry Hall
USA - OWGR #63
VALUE
|
Two top-6 finishes at Colonial already (T6 in '25, T3 in '23) and a +0.46 SG Putting that leads everyone in this tier — that's the Colonial recipe right there. He also just posted a T8 at the Truist, so the missed cut at the PGA is easy to wave off as a course-specific issue. The model's +0.034 course-history adjustment and 16.1% top-10 number are earned. At +5576 he's the longshot I'd actually back, especially in the top-10 market. |
+5576 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T6
2024MC
2023T3
Win+5576
Top 5+1091
Top 10+522
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T8 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T65 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
16.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 15 |
Akshay Bhatia
USA - OWGR #26
VALUE
|
The +0.47 SG Putting and +0.37 SG Approach combo is the most Colonial-friendly skill mix in this tier, and the model rewards it with a +0.04 course-fit adjustment. The PGA Championship MC and Masters MC are the concerns, but T13 at PLAYERS and T16 at Harbour Town show he can handle tough setups when the iron play shows up. At +5806, the 14.7% top-10 number says this is more of a place-bet than an outright. Live ticket for a top-20 at +200ish. |
+5806 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T22
2024MC
202356
Win+5806
Top 5+1200
Top 10+582
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.7%
Top 10 Probability
14.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 16 |
Sungjae Im
USA - OWGR #68
VALUE
|
The -0.15 SG Approach is a problem at a course that demands the opposite, but everything else fits — +0.37 around the greens leads this tier and the T9 at Colonial in 2024 shows the layout suits his shape. Form is genuinely live too: T9 at Byron Nelson last week, T5 at the Truist, T4 at Valspar in March. At +6422 with a 14% top-10, he's a reasonable placement play if you believe the iron number is noise. I'm skeptical enough on the approach to pass outright. |
+6422 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T9
2023MC
Win+6422
Top 5+1262
Top 10+612
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T9 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T5 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T65 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 46 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T60 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T4 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
14.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 17 |
Pierceson Coody
USA - OWGR #56
VALUE
|
A T5 at Colonial in 2024 hints at course fit, but the trajectory since is ugly — MC at the PGA, T24 at Truist, and a WD in Houston bookending a T19 at the Byron Nelson last week. The +6742 price reflects a 1.46% model win number that's generous given the -0.134 course fit adjustment. With +0.54 SG OTT but only +0.26 approach, this is a bomber profile at a precision course. Pass. |
+6742 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T16
2024T5
2023MC
Win+6742
Top 5+1261
Top 10+616
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T24 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): WD • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T55 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
14.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.13
Course History+0.05
| |||
| 18 |
Mac Meissner
USA - OWGR #108
VALUE
|
Quietly putting together a profile that fits Colonial perfectly: +0.30 SG Approach, +0.18 putting, and a T5 here in 2024 backed by a T9 at Myrtle Beach and T10 at Zurich in his last four starts. The 0.0 course fit adjustment undersells it — his short game (+0.14 around the green) and lack of OTT dependence is exactly the Hogan's Alley template. At +6804 with a 26.1% top-20 number, the place markets are where the value lives. |
+6804 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T28
2024T5
2023NA
Win+6804
Top 5+1323
Top 10+632
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T31 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T9 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T10 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T30 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
13.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+-0.00
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 19 |
Max Greyserman
USA - OWGR #62
VALUE
|
T9 at the Byron Nelson last week and T14 at the PGA Championship show the form is real, but Colonial is a stylistic mismatch — the -0.09 SG OTT and +0.07 approach don't move the needle at a course that demands ball-striking. The -0.065 course fit adjustment and a 2024 missed cut here are tells. At +6926 with a 12.3% top-10 number, there are better uses of the bankroll in this tier. Fade. |
+6926 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T22
2024MC
2023NA
Win+6926
Top 5+1466
Top 10+712
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T9 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T14 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T31 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
12.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 20 |
Brian Harman
USA - OWGR #55
VALUE
|
Three straight made cuts at Colonial (T46, T24, T29) and the model's +0.088 course fit adjustment plus +0.072 course history bump are among the strongest in this tier. The +0.25 SG Approach and +0.19 around the green pair perfectly with a layout that punishes the bomber profile he avoids. Form is steady if unspectacular — T11 at THE PLAYERS is the highlight. At +6934, the top-20 at 25.9% is the play, not the outright. |
+6934 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T46
2024T24
2023T29
Win+6934
Top 5+1316
Top 10+626
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T60 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T31 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T33 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T39 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T11
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
13.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.09
Course History+0.07
| |||
| 21 |
Tony Finau
USA - OWGR #103
VALUE
|
T6 at the Byron Nelson last week is the only thing keeping this number from being a hard fade — the underlying SG profile is brutal at +0.04 total with -0.31 OTT and +0.02 approach. The +0.067 course history adjustment is doing real work to prop up a 1.38% model win number. Colonial doesn't reward what's left of Finau's game right now, and +7146 isn't enough cushion. Pass on everything but a possible top-20 sprinkle. |
+7146 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T17
2023MC
Win+7146
Top 5+1354
Top 10+661
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T6 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T31 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 82 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T49 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T39 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T18 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T70
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
13.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History+0.07
| |||
| 22 |
Andrew Putnam
USA - OWGR #81
VALUE
|
The +0.257 course fit adjustment is the largest in this entire tier, and it's not close — Putnam's +0.27 approach, +0.34 around the green, and +0.26 putting is the Colonial archetype distilled. A T5 at Valero and T18 at Miami back up a 70.6% make-cut number that leads this group. The +7164 outright is fine, but the +590 top-10 is the smarter ticket given the model has him at 14.5%. Underpriced. |
+7164 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T44
2024MC
2023T29
Win+7164
Top 5+1279
Top 10+590
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T55 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T18 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T5 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T44 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T30 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
14.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.26
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 23 |
Davis Thompson
USA - OWGR #137
VALUE
|
The +0.84 SG Total leads everyone in this tier, driven by a serious ball-striking combo of +0.40 OTT and +0.43 approach. Problem: he missed the cut at Colonial in 2025 and missed again at the Byron Nelson last week, so the recent Texas swing data is a real concern. A T6 at Zurich and T14 at Valero show the ceiling is there. At +7208 with no course history adjustment to lean on, this is a dart, not a conviction play. |
+7208 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T17
2023NA
Win+7208
Top 5+1382
Top 10+661
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T13 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T6 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T14 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T46 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): 4
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
13.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 24 |
Gary Woodland
USA - OWGR #47
VALUE
|
Won the Houston Open in March and has a T11 at Colonial in 2025, but the -0.149 course fit adjustment is the second-worst in this tier for a reason — the -0.27 around the green at a course that demands scrambling is a structural problem. The +0.53 OTT is wasted on a 7,209-yard par-70 that doesn't reward distance. Missed the cut at the PGA in his last start. At +7217, the price isn't long enough to overlook the fit issues. |
+7217 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T11
2024T45
2023NA
Win+7217
Top 5+1440
Top 10+704
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T17 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T8 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T33 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): 1 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T14 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
12.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.15
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 25 |
J.T. Poston
USA - OWGR #85
VALUE
|
A T12 here in 2024 hints at course comfort, but the surrounding form is ugly — missed cut at the PGA Championship, T49 at Miami, MC at Houston. The +0.29 approach number is fine, not special, and the +0.047 course fit adjustment doesn't move the needle at +7262. Model gives him a 1.36% win equity, which is essentially dart-throwing territory. Pass on the outright, consider a small top-20 sprinkle at 24.7% implied. |
+7262 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T36
2024T12
2023MC
Win+7262
Top 5+1406
Top 10+675
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T24 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T49 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T60 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T21 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T50
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
12.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 26 |
Michael Thorbjornsen
USA - OWGR #75
VALUE
|
Back-to-back missed cuts at the Byron Nelson and PGA Championship is the wrong momentum into a precision week, and the -0.127 course fit adjustment is one of the worst marks in this tier. The raw +0.70 SG Total and +0.50 off-the-tee are legit talent indicators, but Colonial isn't a bomber's track — Hogan's Alley punishes exactly the profile he brings. No course history to lean on either. The +7632 price is paying for upside that doesn't match the venue. Fade. |
+7632 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+7632
Top 5+1532
Top 10+765
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T53 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T13 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T14 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T22
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
11.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.13
Course History—
| |||
| 27 |
Andrew Novak
USA - OWGR #54
VALUE
|
The +0.43 SG approach is the real selling point here, and it pairs nicely with a T11 at Colonial last year and a T16 at Hilton Head — two precision tracks where iron play travels. Form is steady rather than spectacular (T26 PGA, T24 Truist, T10 Zurich), and the -0.12 putter is the obvious ceiling-capper. At +8074 with a 12.4% top-10 model number, he's a defensible top-20 play (23.5%) more than an outright swing. |
+8074 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T11
2024MC
2023T40
Win+8074
Top 5+1476
Top 10+710
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T24 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T65 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T10 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T14 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T55 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
12.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.00
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 28 |
Ryan Gerard
USA - OWGR #37
VALUE
|
The ball-striking profile pops — +0.56 SG approach and +0.34 off the tee add up to the best tee-to-green look in this tier — but the recent results don't match the underlying (T70 PGA, T65 Truist, T30 Miami). OWGR #37 says the talent is real; the T73 here in 2025 says Colonial hasn't clicked yet. At +8327 with no putter (-0.07) and a -0.007 fit adjustment, he's a tee-to-green dart with a clear flaw. Small top-20 ticket at best. |
+8327 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T73
2024NA
2023NA
Win+8327
Top 5+1501
Top 10+707
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T70 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T65 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 34 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T38 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T27
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
12.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 29 |
Matt McCarty
USA - OWGR #49
VALUE
|
Four straight top-12s before the PGA missed cut — T10 Truist, T9 Miami, T10 Zurich, T12 Hilton Head — is the kind of run that should be priced shorter than +8829. The +0.24 putter is the best in this tier and pairs with a +0.058 course fit adjustment that likes his profile at Colonial. The 2025 MC here is the one knock, but the form arrow trumps it. Live top-20 play at 23.1% implied; outright is fair value too. |
+8829 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+8829
Top 5+1599
Top 10+754
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T10 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T9 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T10 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T12 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T24 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T39 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
11.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 30 |
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
USA - OWGR #91
VALUE
|
The +0.169 course fit adjustment is one of the largest in the entire field, and the history backs it up — T16, T17, T21 in three straight Colonial starts. The +0.44 putter and +0.26 short game are exactly the skills that win at Hogan's Alley, even with the brutal -0.41 off the tee. Recent form is mixed (MC at Byron Nelson, T35 PGA, T6 Myrtle Beach), but the course profile fit is undeniable. +8842 is generous — top-20 at 24.9% is the play. |
+8842 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T16
2024T17
2023T21
Win+8842
Top 5+1517
Top 10+693
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T6 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T17 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T39 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T51 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T30 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
12.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.17
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 31 |
Tom Kim
USA - OWGR #144
VALUE
|
OWGR #144 tells you where his game has been, but a T6 at Myrtle Beach and T18 at Valspar suggest the short, precision tracks are where the rebuild is happening. The +0.31 approach and +0.17 around-the-green are the right skills for Colonial, and prior finishes of T44 and T24 here show he can navigate it. Still, at +8882 with a 1.11% model win number, there's no edge on the outright. Top-20 sprinkle only. |
+8882 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T44
2024T24
2023NA
Win+8882
Top 5+1581
Top 10+761
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T54 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T6 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T56 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
11.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 32 |
Sam Stevens
USA - OWGR #52
VALUE
|
A solo 5th at Houston in March is the high-water mark, but the four starts since (T18 Miami, T13 Zurich, T65 Hilton Head, T65 PGA) have trended the wrong way. The +0.34 off the tee and +0.26 approach are solid, and a T28-T29 Colonial history shows the course doesn't scare him. The -0.063 course fit adjustment is the issue — Colonial doesn't reward his length-leaning profile. At +9546 with declining form, this is a fade. |
+9546 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T28
2024MC
2023T29
Win+9546
Top 5+1605
Top 10+746
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T65 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 70 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T18 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T13 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T65 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T24 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): 5 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): 58
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
11.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.06
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 33 |
Sahith Theegala
USA - OWGR #79
VALUE
|
Zero rounds at Colonial across three years is a weird gap for a player ranked OWGR #79, and the model isn't giving him the benefit of the doubt at +10018 with just a 0.99% win projection. The +0.57 SG total is solid but unspectacular, and the recent form chart — T60 PGA, 69 Truist, T30 Miami — shows a player grinding out checks rather than threatening leaderboards. The around-green touch (+0.24) plays here, but with no course reps and a -0.016 fit adjustment, the price is honest rather than exploitable. |
+10018 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10018
Top 5+1709
Top 10+796
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T60 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 69 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T24 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T10 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
11.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 34 |
Eric Cole
USA - OWGR #117
VALUE
|
Two top-10s in the last three starts — T6 Myrtle Beach and T6 Zurich — and a +0.084 course fit adjustment that's one of the better numbers in this tier make the +10069 number more interesting than the OWGR #117 suggests. The putter (+0.42) and short game (+0.31) are the bankable skills, which fits a Colonial setup where scrambling for pars matters. The catch: two missed cuts here in '23 and '24 with a T28 in '25 as the lone made weekend. Live for a top-20 ticket, skeptical on outright. |
+10069 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T28
2024MC
2023MC
Win+10069
Top 5+1724
Top 10+801
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T31 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T6 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T6 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T14 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T51 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
11.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.08
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 35 |
Doug Ghim
USA - OWGR #185
VALUE
|
Three straight made cuts including a T6 at Zurich and T19 at Myrtle Beach point to a game trending the right way, and the +0.34 SG off the tee gives him a baseline most of this tier doesn't have. Problem is the putter (-0.24) and a -0.024 fit number on a course where the greens dictate ceiling. Two prior Colonial starts produced T46 and T50 — competent, never contending. The +10371 price reflects exactly what he is: a make-cut play, not a winner. |
+10371 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T46
2024T50
2023NA
Win+10371
Top 5+1819
Top 10+825
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T31 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T19 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T6 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T30 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T40 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T26
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
10.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 36 |
Stephan Jaeger
USA - OWGR #84
VALUE
|
Coming off a T9 at the Byron Nelson and a T18 at the PGA Championship, Jaeger is the rare player in this tier carrying genuine major-week momentum into Fort Worth. The numbers underneath aren't pretty though — -0.08 SG approach and a -0.05 course fit on a layout that punishes iron play — and his one Colonial trip ended T68. The +11665 price is fair for the form spike, but ball-striking metrics say fade the outright and look at top-20 instead. |
+11665 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023T68
Win+11665
Top 5+2082
Top 10+993
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T9 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T18 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): MC • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T59 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T7 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T62
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
9.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 37 |
Chris Kirk
USA - OWGR #96
VALUE
|
Three straight missed cuts at Colonial ('23, '24, '25) on a player who otherwise grades as a precision veteran is the kind of pattern that can't be ignored at +11711. The +0.32 SG approach is genuinely strong and the +0.034 course history adjustment hints the model sees positive signal under the hood, but the putter (-0.26) has been a problem and recent form (T31 Byron, T44 PGA, MC Zurich) is uninspiring. Pass on the outright, the course history fade is too loud. |
+11711 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023MC
Win+11711
Top 5+1927
Top 10+896
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T31 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T36 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T51 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T27
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
10.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 38 |
Rico Hoey
USA - OWGR #83
VALUE
|
Best ball-striking profile in this group by a clear margin — +0.48 off the tee and +0.32 approach add up to a +0.43 SG total that would suggest higher than a +12170 number. The issue is everywhere else: -0.12 around the greens, -0.26 putting, and a brutal -0.076 course fit on a layout that rewards the exact skills he lacks. One Colonial start produced T66. Tee-to-green numbers are a trap here; the price is right where it should be. |
+12170 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T66
2024NA
2023NA
Win+12170
Top 5+2036
Top 10+935
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T60 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T53 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T26 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T39 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T26 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T62
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
9.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.08
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 39 |
Taylor Moore
USA - OWGR #140
VALUE
|
Four straight made cuts headlined by a T14 at the Byron Nelson last week show the game is in workable shape, but the underlying profile is rough for Colonial — -0.20 SG approach is a real problem on Hogan's Alley, and the -0.072 course fit adjustment confirms it. Two missed cuts and a T73 across three prior Fort Worth trips tell the same story. At +12532 there's no edge; the model has him at 0.79% to win for a reason. |
+12532 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T73
2024MC
2023MC
Win+12532
Top 5+2249
Top 10+1034
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T14 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T17 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T20 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T39 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T50
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
8.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History-0.06
| |||
| 40 |
Thorbjorn Olesen
USA - OWGR #121
VALUE
|
Quietly carrying a +0.50 SG total and a +0.26 approach number that play above his +12558 price, with a T14 at the Houston Open in March as the recent ceiling marker. The concern is a thin Colonial sample (one T46 in '25) and a putter sitting at flat 0.0 — at a course where the greens separate top-10s from top-30s, neutral isn't enough. Reasonable top-20 dart given the iron play, but the outright case is light. |
+12558 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T46
2024NA
2023NA
Win+12558
Top 5+2127
Top 10+974
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T62 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T49 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T14 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
9.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 41 |
Jordan Smith
USA - OWGR #72
VALUE
|
A solo 3rd at the Valspar in March is the headline result, but everything since reads as a player searching: MC at the PGA, MC at Zurich, MC at Valero, and a T59 at Byron Nelson last week. The +0.37 approach and -0.23 putting profile doesn't scream Colonial fit either, with the course fit adjustment landing at -0.066. At +13174 with a 0.75% model win number, there's no edge to chase here — pass. |
+13174 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+13174
Top 5+2456
Top 10+1103
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T59 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T55 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T44 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): 3 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
8.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History—
| |||
| 42 |
Zach Bauchou
USA - OWGR #159
VALUE
|
T6 at the Byron Nelson last week is the kind of momentum that travels well across the Texas swing, and Bauchou backs it with a T13 at Zurich and T28 at Valero in his last five starts. The underlying SG total of just +0.08 is thin, but a positive course fit adjustment (+0.032) and a 60.7% make cut number give the +13821 ticket a real pulse. Top-20 at +2358 is the play, not the outright. |
+13821 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+13821
Top 5+2358
Top 10+1062
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T6 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T24 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T13 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T28 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T50 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T21
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History—
| |||
| 43 |
Michael Brennan
USA - OWGR #60
VALUE
|
The +0.86 SG off the tee is the loudest number in this entire longshot group, and the OWGR #60 ranking suggests the market still hasn't fully caught up to the upside. Problem: Colonial doesn't reward bombers, the course fit adjustment is a brutal -0.227, and Brennan's last three starts read MC-81-MC. At +13886 you're paying for a skill set this course actively punishes. Fade. |
+13886 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+13886
Top 5+2556
Top 10+1205
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): 81 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T24 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): 69 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T26
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
7.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.23
Course History—
| |||
| 44 |
Michael Kim
USA - OWGR #48
VALUE
|
Only player in this tier with real Colonial history that matters — T6 in 2023 and T16 last year, paired with a positive course fit adjustment (+0.056) and a +0.42 putting number that travels anywhere. The T2 at Valero in April confirms the Texas game is sharp, and at +13985 with a 61.3% make cut projection, this is the cleanest longshot ticket on the board. Top-20 at +1025 has clear value. |
+13985 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T16
2024MC
2023T6
Win+13985
Top 5+2239
Top 10+1025
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T48 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T18 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T2 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T30 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 45 |
Max McGreevy
USA - OWGR #88
VALUE
|
Three straight missed cuts heading into Colonial — Byron Nelson, PGA, Myrtle Beach — is not the form line you want to back at +14051. The +0.27 off the tee and +0.25 approach profile is fine on paper, and the course fit nudges positive at +0.044, but a T66 in his only Colonial look last year doesn't add comfort. Hard pass until the form stabilizes. |
+14051 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T66
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14051
Top 5+2246
Top 10+1016
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): MC • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T32 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T19 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T50
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
9.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 46 |
Rasmus Hojgaard
USA - OWGR #70
VALUE
|
The talent ceiling is real — +0.49 SG total and a +0.30 putter — but Hojgaard hasn't posted a top-25 since March and just went T62-T65-T24 across his last three starts. Colonial's premium on precision over power shows up in the -0.163 course fit adjustment, which is the second-worst mark in this group. At +14900 with a 0.67% model win, there's no number that makes this interesting. |
+14900 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023NA
Win+14900
Top 5+2506
Top 10+1163
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T62 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T65 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T24 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 53 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T68 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
7.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.16
Course History—
| |||
| 47 |
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
USA - OWGR #78
LONGSHOT
|
T4 at Zurich (with a partner, fair) and T19 at Byron Nelson last week show flashes, but the rest of the 2026 résumé is a slog of missed cuts and weekend filler. The +0.41 off the tee is the strength, though Colonial doesn't pay for that skill and the course fit lands at -0.048. The +15052 price reflects reality — model gives 0.66% to win. Skip the outright, consider a small top-20 dart at +1128. |
+15052 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+15052
Top 5+2498
Top 10+1128
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T75 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): MC • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T4 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T55 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): 68
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History—
| |||
| 48 |
Sudarshan Yellamaraju
USA - OWGR #107
LONGSHOT
|
Two top-10s already this season — T6 at Houston and T5 at THE PLAYERS — make this the most accomplished longshot in the group by recent ceiling, and the +0.48 SG total backs it up. The OWGR #107 suggests a player still climbing, and a T19 at Truist three starts back keeps the iron play (+0.15 approach) trending. Course fit is mildly negative at -0.087, but at +15245 with that PLAYERS finish on the card, the top-10 at +1174 is the angle worth a sprinkle. |
+15245 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+15245
Top 5+2571
Top 10+1174
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T19 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 34 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T52 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T14 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T6 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T5 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T37
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
7.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.09
Course History—
| |||
| 49 |
Austin Eckroat
USA - OWGR #171
LONGSHOT
|
Six straight made cuts and a T6 at Zurich plus T10 at Valero show this game travels through the Texas swing just fine. The +0.35 SG Approach is the kind of iron number Colonial rewards, and a 2023 T16 here proves the course fits. At +15484 with a 7.9% top-10 model number, the win equity is thin but the top-20 ticket (16.8%) is where the value actually sits. |
+15484 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T46
2024MC
2023T16
Win+15484
Top 5+2644
Top 10+1162
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T40 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T19 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T6 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T10 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T39 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T42
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 50 |
Beau Hossler
USA - OWGR #151
LONGSHOT
|
A T3 at Myrtle Beach two weeks ago is the only thing keeping this profile interesting, because the Colonial history is bleak — T59, MC, T70 across three tries. The short-game/putting combo (+0.27 ARG, +0.35 putting) plays at a tight par-70, but the -0.22 SG Approach is a real problem on a course where iron play is everything. At +15648, the missed cut at Byron Nelson last week is the more honest signal. Pass on the win, dabble top-20 only. |
+15648 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T59
2024MC
2023T70
Win+15648
Top 5+2503
Top 10+1157
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T3 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T49 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T37
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History-0.06
| |||
| 51 |
Patrick Rodgers
USA - OWGR #77
LONGSHOT
|
OWGR #77 is the best ranking in this entire longshot batch, and a T11 at THE PLAYERS in March confirms the ceiling is higher than the price suggests. The problem: three of his last six starts are missed cuts, including the PGA, and the SG Approach sits at just -0.04. Colonial history is mediocre (T28 best in three tries) and the course fit adjustment is negative. At +16945, there are sharper longshot bets in this field. |
+16945 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T28
2024T45
2023T57
Win+16945
Top 5+2700
Top 10+1181
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T47 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T24 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T65 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T40 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T11
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 52 |
Haotong Li
USA - OWGR #80
LONGSHOT
|
Zero Colonial reps and a missed cut at Byron Nelson last week is the worst possible setup for a Texas-swing debut at a course that punishes unfamiliarity. The +0.34 SG OTT and +0.24 Approach are legitimate ballstriking numbers, and the T35 at the PGA shows he can hang in elite fields. But four missed cuts in his last eight starts at +17141 is a hard pass — even the top-20 ticket at 15.3% is below field average. |
+17141 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+17141
Top 5+2947
Top 10+1314
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): MC • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T38 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.08
Course History—
| |||
| 53 |
Steven Fisk
USA - OWGR #132
LONGSHOT
|
T19 at Byron Nelson and T12 at RBC Heritage in his last five starts is quietly the most consistent recent form line in this tier. The SG numbers are flat across the board (+0.12 total) and the lone Colonial rep was a T66 in 2025, so there's no edge in the profile beyond momentum. At +17342, this is a top-30 dart at best — the 7.1% top-10 number isn't pricing in any real win equity. |
+17342 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T66
2024NA
2023NA
Win+17342
Top 5+2932
Top 10+1306
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T12 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T54 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T48 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T62
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 54 |
Ricky Castillo
USA - OWGR #93
LONGSHOT
|
Won the Puerto Rico Open in March — that's the headline, and it's why a player at OWGR #93 with a +0.35 SG total is sitting at +17651. The catch: zero top-40s in seven starts since that win, including a missed cut at the PGA. Colonial debut went T59 last year and the course fit adjustment is negative. The talent justifies a small top-20 sprinkle, but the trend line says fade the outright. |
+17651 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T59
2024NA
2023NA
Win+17651
Top 5+2832
Top 10+1243
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T60 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T55 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T60 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T44 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T46 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T70 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): 1
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 55 |
Austin Smotherman
USA - OWGR #89
LONGSHOT
|
The +0.37 SG OTT and +0.28 Approach are genuinely strong ballstriking marks, and a T19 at Truist plus T13 at THE PLAYERS show the upside is real in good fields. A 2023 T21 at Colonial is the best course history line in this batch, with a positive history adjustment to match. The -0.25 ARG and -0.18 putting are the ceiling-cappers at +18249 — top-20 ticket is the play, not the outright. |
+18249 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T65
2023T21
Win+18249
Top 5+3119
Top 10+1368
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T19 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T60 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T74 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T36 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
6.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.02
| |||
Daily Matchups coming soon.