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// BETTING PREVIEW - JULY 16-19
The Open Championship
July 16-19, 2026 | Southport, England
⛅ Tournament Weather Forecast
Expect partly cloudy skies with highs in the 74F range and moderate winds around 11 mph throughout the week. No rain is forecast, making for good scoring opportunities.
🌬️ Wind by Day — Morning & Afternoon
| Day | 8 AM | 12 PM |
|---|---|---|
| Thu | ↑ 4 mph E G8 | ↑ 2 mph ENE G8 |
| Fri | ↑ 6 mph E G10 | ↑ 5 mph NE G12 |
| Sat | ↑ 6 mph ESE G11 | ↑ 2 mph NNE G9 |
| Sun | ↑ 5 mph ESE G9 | ↑ 2 mph NNE G8 |
🌊 Afternoons play calmer (~3 vs ~5 mph) — a slight edge to PM-wave tee times.
🔒 Crew picks drop Wednesday night
Scottie Scheffler returns to The Open Championship as the defending champion and our model's top-ranked player, projecting an 8.8% win probability against +1030 odds — an enormous edge that makes him the clear cornerstone of any betting card. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1917) ranks #2 in the field in SG Approach at +0.91 with a near-neutral course fit (-0.014) and a T4 finish last year, offering roughly 5.0% model win probability at a price that barely reflects his elite ball-striking. Among longshots, Collin Morikawa (+5642) stands out as the #3 ball-striker in the field with a 16.3% top-10 probability, making him one of the most compelling value plays at Royal Birkdale Golf Club this week.
Scheffler Is the Clear Best Bet
The defending champion leads the field in SG Total (+2.68) and SG Approach (+1.03), with an 8.8% model win probability against +1030 odds. His 1-T7-T23 record over his last three Opens confirms elite major pedigree, and no other player in this field combines his raw skill ceiling with this kind of value edge.
Scottie Scheffler
Fitzpatrick's Ball-Striking Demands Attention
Matt Fitzpatrick ranks #2 in the entire field in SG Approach (+0.91) and #3 in SG Total (+1.95) while carrying a near-perfect course fit score of -0.014. At +1917 with a 5.0% model win probability and a T4 at last year's Open, he's arguably the best risk-reward play on the board.
Matt Fitzpatrick
Fleetwood Fits Royal Birkdale Perfectly
Tommy Fleetwood boasts the best course fit among the top-10 favorites at -0.002, essentially a perfect stylistic match for Royal Birkdale Golf Club. With a 5.3% model win probability at +1802 and a strong SG Total of +1.85 (#5 in the field), the Englishman profiles as a genuine contender on home soil.
Tommy Fleetwood
Morikawa Is the Premier Longshot
Collin Morikawa ranks #3 in the field in SG Approach (+0.81) and carries a 16.3% top-10 probability at +5642 odds. His iron play is tailor-made for links golf precision, and he offers significant upside as a two-time major champion at a price that undersells his talent level.
Collin Morikawa
McIlroy's Course Fit Raises Caution
Despite ranking #2 in SG Total (+2.14) with a 5.8% model win probability, Rory McIlroy carries the worst course fit among the top favorites at -0.344. His missed cut at the 2024 Open and volatile history in this event suggest his ceiling is high but his floor is dangerously low at Royal Birkdale Golf Club.
Rory McIlroy
Si Woo Kim: Best Course Fit, Big Price
Si Woo Kim is the only player among the top-10 favorites with a positive course fit score (+0.043) and ranks #10 in SG Total (+1.64). At +4892 with a 2.0% model win probability, he's a creative dart throw — though his MC at the 2025 Open and inconsistent history temper enthusiasm slightly.
Si Woo Kim
Rahm Offers Sneaky Value at +2738
Jon Rahm ranks #4 in SG Total (+1.94) and has finished T2 and T7 in his last two Open appearances entering 2025. His 3.5% model win probability represents a meaningful edge at +2738, and his elite ball-striking should translate well despite a -0.218 course fit adjustment.
Jon Rahm
Cameron Young for Top-10 Value
Cameron Young's 15.9% top-10 probability at +5200 outright makes him an intriguing top-10 or top-20 play. His SG Total of +1.67 (#6 in the field) suggests he's severely underpriced, and his aggressive style could thrive at Royal Birkdale Golf Club if conditions allow for attacking play.
Cameron Young
Schauffele Overpriced as 2024 Champion
Xander Schauffele won the 2024 Open Championship but sits at +3436 with just a 2.8% model win probability, well behind several players ranked above him in raw SG metrics. A -0.204 course fit score and an SG Total that ranks only #11 in the field suggest the market may be slightly over-weighting his name value relative to current form.
Xander Schauffele
Hatton and Lowry: Links Pedigree Longshots
Tyrrell Hatton (+5487, 16.3% top-10 probability) and Shane Lowry (+5714, 16.0% top-10 probability) both bring proven links pedigree at prices that offer genuine each-way value. Hatton's SG Total of +1.10 and Lowry's +1.00 may look modest, but their comfort in Open conditions at Royal Birkdale Golf Club makes them strong top-10 or top-20 bets.
Tyrrell Hatton Shane Lowry
Complete Betting Board
| # | Player | Why They Could Win | Win Odds GolfData API |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Scottie Scheffler
USA - OWGR #1
CONTENDER
|
The defending champion at this event isn't just leaning on the 2025 title — the +2.68 SG Total leads this field by a healthy margin and he's backed it up with a runner-up at the Travelers and a T4 at the U.S. Open. A missed cut at the Genesis Scottish Open is the only blemish in an otherwise elite stretch, and the model gives him a field-best 8.85% win equity. At +1030, he's the correct favorite and Top 10 at +145 is the cleanest way in. |
+1030 |
Tournament History & Odds
20251
2024T7
2023T23
Win+1030
Top 5+264
Top 10+145
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 2 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T4 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T12 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 3 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T14 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): 2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
8.8%
Top 10 Probability
40.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.13
Course History—
| |||
| 2 |
Rory McIlroy
NIR - OWGR #2
CONTENDER
|
World No. 2, 5.78% model win equity, and a T7 at the Genesis Scottish Open as a live tune-up — the ingredients are all there. The concern is a -0.344 Course Fit adjustment that's the worst among the top contenders, and a 2024 missed cut sandwiched between a T6 in 2023 and T7 in 2025 shows the variance. At +1632 the price is fair rather than generous; the Top 10 at +223 is the smarter angle than betting the outright. |
+1632 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T7
2024MC
2023T6
Win+1632
Top 5+415
Top 10+223
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T7 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T32 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T12 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T7 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T19
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
5.8%
Top 10 Probability
31.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.34
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 3 |
Tommy Fleetwood
ENG - OWGR #9
CONTENDER
|
Six straight made cuts with a T4 at Memorial and a T5 at the Truist headline a form line that quietly rivals anyone in this field. He's got a T10 here in 2023 and a T16 in 2025, +0.64 SG Approach, and a neutral 0.00 Course Fit adjustment that suggests this venue neither helps nor hurts. At +1802 with 5.26% model win equity, he's essentially priced identically to Fitzpatrick and cheaper than McIlroy — that's the value play among the second tier. |
+1802 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T16
2024MC
2023T10
Win+1802
Top 5+409
Top 10+211
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T13 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T11 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T11 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T4 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T5 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
5.3%
Top 10 Probability
32.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.00
Course History+-0.00
| |||
| 4 |
Matt Fitzpatrick
ENG - OWGR #3
CONTENDER
|
A solo 4th at the Travelers, runner-up at the RBC Canadian, and a T3 at the Genesis Scottish Open — that's three top-4s in his last four starts and it's not getting enough attention at +1917. The World No. 3 also finished T4 here in 2025 and posts +0.91 SG Approach with +0.46 Around the Green, exactly the skill mix that travels to a links test. Model win equity of 4.96% is basically identical to Fleetwood's; this is the sharper number of the two. |
+1917 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T4
2024T50
2023T41
Win+1917
Top 5+426
Top 10+223
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T3 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 4 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): 22 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): 2 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T36 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T14 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T52
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
5.0%
Top 10 Probability
31.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 5 |
Jon Rahm
ESP - OWGR #11
CONTENDER
|
A runner-up at the PGA Championship proves the ceiling is intact, but the résumé since has been ugly — a missed cut at the U.S. Open and a T36 at the Genesis Scottish Open. He's got a T2 here in 2023 and a T7 in 2024 to lean on, plus +0.80 SG OTT, but the -0.218 Course Fit adjustment and 3.52% model win equity say +2738 is roughly a fair price, not a bargain. Pass on the outright and take a smaller Top 10 stab at +322. |
+2738 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T34
2024T7
2023T2
Win+2738
Top 5+626
Top 10+322
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T36 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.5%
Top 10 Probability
23.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.22
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 6 |
Viktor Hovland
NOR - OWGR #12
CONTENDER
|
The reigning Travelers Championship winner is playing the best golf of anyone outside the top tier — a solo 3rd at the RBC Canadian and a T13 at the Genesis Scottish Open surround that Travelers title. The problem is the résumé at this event: MC in 2024, T63 in 2025, with only a 2023 T13 to point to. +0.80 SG Approach and 2.85% model win equity make the +3403 price fair, but the course history is the reason he's not higher. |
+3403 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T63
2024MC
2023T13
Win+3403
Top 5+708
Top 10+359
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T13 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 1 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): 3 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T31 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.9%
Top 10 Probability
21.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History—
| |||
| 7 |
Xander Schauffele
USA - OWGR #14
CONTENDER
|
The 2024 champion of this event is priced at +3436, and that's a warning shot from the market. A missed cut at the Genesis Scottish Open and a T51 at the Travelers explain why — his +1.63 SG Total is well off Scheffler's pace and the -0.204 Course Fit adjustment is a real drag. The 2024 title and T7 in 2025 keep the ceiling honest, but 2.83% model win equity says the outright is a fade; Top 10 at +378 is the only version worth touching. |
+3436 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T7
20241
2023T17
Win+3436
Top 5+744
Top 10+378
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T51 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T11 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T29 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T7 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T60
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.8%
Top 10 Probability
20.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.20
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 8 |
Robert MacIntyre
SCO - OWGR #15
CONTENDER
|
The Scot is coming off a T3 at the Genesis Scottish Open and a T10 at the Travelers, and he owns a T7 at this event in 2025 — the links comfort is real. But +1.33 SG Total is the weakest of anyone in this tier and the underlying approach number (+0.36) is pedestrian for a major. At +3903 with 2.5% model win equity, the outright is a stretch; the Top 20 at implied 35.6% is where the model actually likes him. |
+3903 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T7
2024T50
2023T71
Win+3903
Top 5+778
Top 10+383
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T3 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T10 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T39 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T15 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T42 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T60
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.5%
Top 10 Probability
20.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History—
| |||
| 9 |
Ludvig Aberg
SWE - OWGR #20
CONTENDER
|
Strip out the missed cut at the Genesis Scottish Open and this is one of the sharpest ball-strikers in the field — +0.74 SG Approach, +1.68 SG Total, and a T4 at the PGA Championship that showed the ceiling. The problem is the -0.194 course fit adjustment and a résumé at this event of T23 and MC in his only two starts. At +3962 with a 2.46% model win rate, he's fairly priced, not a value. |
+3962 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T23
2024MC
2023NA
Win+3962
Top 5+880
Top 10+443
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T55 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T17 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 39 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T17 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T4 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.5%
Top 10 Probability
18.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.19
Course History—
| |||
| 10 |
Si Woo Kim
KOR - OWGR #21
CONTENDER
|
A T9 at the Genesis Scottish Open on links turf is the kind of tune-up that should move the needle, and it's paired with a runner-up at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and a T10 at Memorial. The +4892 number underrates a player carrying +0.75 SG Approach and a slight positive course fit adjustment. Still, an 0-for-3 Open history capped at T43 is the ceiling problem — a top-20 ticket at +32.3% implied makes more sense than the outright. |
+4892 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T43
2023MC
Win+4892
Top 5+948
Top 10+456
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T9 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T44 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T10 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 2 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T65 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T4
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.0%
Top 10 Probability
18.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+-0.00
| |||
| 11 |
Cameron Young
USA - OWGR #4
VALUE
|
World No. 4 with a win at the Miami Championship on the résumé, and yet the recent form is a wreck — MC at the John Deere, T47 Travelers, T43 U.S. Open, T46 Memorial. The T8 at this event in 2023 hints at links comfort, but the -0.169 course fit adjustment and 1.89% model win rate say the OWGR ranking is doing more work than the current game. At +5200 there's no edge here — pass. |
+5200 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T31
2023T8
Win+5200
Top 5+1056
Top 10+529
Recent Form
John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T47 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T46 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T67 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T10 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): 1
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.9%
Top 10 Probability
15.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.17
Course History—
| |||
| 12 |
Tyrrell Hatton
ENG - OWGR #22
VALUE
|
A T7 at the U.S. Open sandwiched between a missed cut at the PGA and a T17 at the Genesis Scottish Open is the definition of a volatile form line, but the links pedigree is real — T16 and T20 in two of his last three Open starts. The +0.43 SG Approach and +0.28 putting are functional, not elite, and the -0.071 fit adjustment isn't a green light. At +5487 he's a defensible top-20 play (29.2% model), not an outright. |
+5487 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T16
2024MC
2023T20
Win+5487
Top 5+1042
Top 10+514
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T17 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T7 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
16.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 13 |
Justin Rose
ENG - OWGR #10
VALUE
|
The runner-up finish at the 2024 Open is the headline, and the form supports another deep run — T11 at the U.S. Open, T12 at Memorial, T10 at the PGA. At 45 years old with +0.57 SG Approach and a top-10 OWGR ranking, he's the kind of savvy veteran links golf tends to reward. The +5582 price offers real top-10 value at +534 (15.8% model), even if the outright feels like a stretch. |
+5582 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T16
2024T2
2023MC
Win+5582
Top 5+1063
Top 10+534
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T25 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T11 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T12 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T10 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T45 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T65
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
15.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 14 |
Collin Morikawa
USA - OWGR #7
VALUE
|
The 2021 Open champion elsewhere has a nightmare record at this specific venue — MC, T16, MC — and the +5642 outright reflects almost none of that. What it does reflect is +0.81 SG Approach (elite) and a solo 3rd at the Travelers that snapped him back into form. Course fit is dead neutral at +0.002, which means the iron play has to carry the week. Priced fairly, but the venue history is a legitimate concern. |
+5642 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T16
2023MC
Win+5642
Top 5+1062
Top 10+514
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 3 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T17 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T29 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T55 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T62
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.7%
Top 10 Probability
16.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History—
| |||
| 15 |
Shane Lowry
IRL - OWGR #46
VALUE
|
The 2019 Open champion elsewhere with a solo 6th at this event in 2024 has the links credentials, but the form is genuinely poor — MC at the Genesis Scottish Open, MC at the U.S. Open, and nothing better than T22 since the Miami Championship. OWGR has slipped to 46 and the +0.74 SG Approach is doing most of the heavy lifting on a +1.00 SG Total profile. At +5714 the narrative is stronger than the numbers — fade the outright. |
+5714 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T40
20246
2023MC
Win+5714
Top 5+1101
Top 10+527
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T22 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T29 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T22 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.7%
Top 10 Probability
16.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 16 |
Chris Gotterup
USA - OWGR #6
VALUE
|
A solo 3rd at this event in 2025 and a win at the John Deere Classic followed by T11 at the Genesis Scottish Open — that's a legitimate heater backed by +0.41 SG Putting and +0.64 off the tee. The catch is a -0.269 course fit adjustment, the worst in this group by a wide margin. At +5742 with 1.71% model win equity, the recent form is doing the pricing while the underlying fit metric screams caution. Top-10 flier at best. |
+5742 |
Tournament History & Odds
20253
2024NA
2023NA
Win+5742
Top 5+1126
Top 10+559
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T11 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): 1 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T27 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T10 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T14 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.7%
Top 10 Probability
15.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.27
Course History—
| |||
| 17 |
Wyndham Clark
USA - OWGR #8
VALUE
|
A U.S. Open title in June 2026, a solo 3rd at the Memorial, and a Byron Nelson win — the recent portfolio is legitimately elite, and the T4 at this event in 2025 proves the links game translates. SG Total of +1.49 with a +0.58 putter is a nasty combo for a bouncy, weather-dependent test. The -0.117 course fit adjustment is the one hesitation, but at +5754 with a 15.3% top-10 model number, the outright is fine and the top-10 at +551 is the real play. |
+5754 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T4
2024MC
2023T33
Win+5754
Top 5+1142
Top 10+551
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T13 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T5 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): 1 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T11 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 3 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 1 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.7%
Top 10 Probability
15.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.12
Course History—
| |||
| 18 |
Justin Thomas
USA - OWGR #19
VALUE
|
Three straight cuts made at this event (T34, T31, MC-then-cuts) plus a T4 at the PGA Championship in May suggest the major game is quietly rounding back into shape. The all-around SG profile is balanced — +0.38 approach, +0.46 around the green, +0.34 putting — but nothing screams elite for a links venue, and the T50 at the Genesis Scottish Open is a red flag on the specific prep. At +6029 with a 1.63% model win number, the price is roughly fair. Pass on the outright, dabble on the top-20 at 26.5% implied. |
+6029 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T34
2024T31
2023MC
Win+6029
Top 5+1209
Top 10+594
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T50 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T17 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T19 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T13 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T4 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 13 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
14.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.08
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 19 |
Min Woo Lee
AUS - OWGR #24
VALUE
|
Runner-up at the Genesis Scottish Open is the exact form line you want heading into a links major, and the +0.64 SG off the tee travels beautifully to firm, windy setups. The problem: back-to-back missed cuts at this event in 2024 and 2025, plus a -0.231 course fit adjustment that's the worst in this batch. The +6054 price bakes in the Scottish result but ignores the venue-specific track record. Lean top-10 at +561 rather than chasing the outright. |
+6054 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023T41
Win+6054
Top 5+1159
Top 10+561
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): 2 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T62 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T18 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T14 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
15.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.23
Course History—
| |||
| 20 |
Patrick Cantlay
USA - OWGR #38
VALUE
|
The +0.71 SG Approach is the best number in this group and the profile screams major contender on paper, but the recent results tell a colder story — MC at the Genesis Scottish Open, MC at the U.S. Open, and MC at this event in 2025. Putting sits at +0.14, which won't cut it on tricky links greens against a loaded board. At +6408 with a 1.54% model win, there's no edge. Fade the outright and look elsewhere in this tier. |
+6408 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T25
2023T33
Win+6408
Top 5+1211
Top 10+577
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T17 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T10
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
14.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History—
| |||
| 21 |
Tom Kim
KOR - OWGR #33
VALUE
|
A win at the Genesis Scottish Open and a solo 3rd at the U.S. Open is a two-event stretch that demands attention, and the T2 at this event in 2023 shows the ceiling on this stage. The +0.03 course fit adjustment is the only positive number in this batch, and the model gives him a 70.4% cut probability — highest of the group. The two recent missed cuts here in 2024-25 keep the price honest at +6703, but the trajectory is pointing up. Top-10 at +596 is the smart bet. |
+6703 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023T2
Win+6703
Top 5+1238
Top 10+596
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): 1 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T46 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): 3 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T15 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T54 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T54 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
14.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History—
| |||
| 22 |
Russell Henley
USA - OWGR #5
VALUE
|
OWGR No. 5 with a +0.137 course fit adjustment — the best in this batch — plus back-to-back top-10s at this event (T10 in 2025, solo 5th in 2024). The Charles Schwab win in May confirms the game is there, though a T65 at the U.S. Open and a PGA Championship missed cut are ugly outliers. The +7043 outright price feels a touch long given the venue history and fit data. Top-5 at +1263 is where the value actually lives. |
+7043 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T10
20245
2023MC
Win+7043
Top 5+1263
Top 10+594
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T12 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T65 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T22 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): 1 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T49
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
14.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.14
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 23 |
Sam Burns
USA - OWGR #18
VALUE
|
Runner-up at the U.S. Open in June and a solo 4th at the Memorial — Burns has been in the mix at the toughest tests all summer, and the +1.64 SG Total leads this entire group. The catch is a -0.139 course fit adjustment and a track record of T31, T45, and a missed cut at this event that says the links style doesn't quite click. The +7262 outright reflects that tension fairly. Top-20 at a 26% implied is the cleaner angle. |
+7262 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T45
2024T31
2023MC
Win+7262
Top 5+1316
Top 10+621
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T12 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): 2 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T20 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T4 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
13.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.14
Course History—
| |||
| 24 |
Joaquin Niemann
CHI - OWGR #48
VALUE
|
The +0.65 off the tee and +0.75 approach numbers are Scheffler-tier ball-striking, and the T7 at the U.S. Open confirms he can hang in a major. But the links resume is brutal — MC, T58, MC at this event across three tries — and the -0.203 course fit is the second-worst mark in this batch. LIV rust also means only two data points since May. At +7280 the outright is a hard sell; if you want the exposure, the top-20 at +672 is the only sane play. |
+7280 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T58
2023MC
Win+7280
Top 5+1405
Top 10+672
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T7 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
13.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.20
Course History—
| |||
| 25 |
Alex Fitzpatrick
ENG - OWGR #65
VALUE
|
A T4 at this event in '25 is by far the best major result of his career, and it's not a fluke on paper — the +0.64 SG Approach and +1.21 SG Total profile travels to links golf. Back that up with a T6 at Memorial and a T7 at Travelers and there's a real ball-striker emerging at OWGR 65. The model gives him 14.4% top 10, which makes the +594 top-10 number the actual play here. Win equity at +7391 is a stretch, but he's live for a placement ticket. |
+7391 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T4
2024T50
2023T17
Win+7391
Top 5+1246
Top 10+594
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T7 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T20 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T6 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T75 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 4 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T9
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
14.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 26 |
Aaron Rai
ENG - OWGR #17
VALUE
|
PGA Championship winner in May, and yet he's priced at +7543 like a random name in the field. The +0.61 SG Approach and +0.18 around the greens fit links golf beautifully, and the course-fit adjustment of +0.16 is one of the better marks in this tier. Recent form is choppy — a Genesis Scottish MC and a Canadian Open MC sandwich a T11 at the U.S. Open — but a reigning major champion at OWGR 17 shouldn't be this deep on the board. Top-20 at +270-ish equivalent is where the value lives. |
+7543 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T34
2024T75
2023NA
Win+7543
Top 5+1346
Top 10+617
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T11 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): 1 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): 5
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
14.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.16
Course History—
| |||
| 27 |
Patrick Reed
USA - OWGR #26
VALUE
|
MC at this event in '25 and a MC at the U.S. Open should tell you everything about how the majors are trending for him, yet the +9850 price implies live interest. The +0.79 SG Total is the weakest ball-striking profile in this group by a clear margin, with a negative OTT number that plays poorly on longer links setups. A T13 at the Genesis Scottish Open is the one flicker of encouragement. Model win equity of 1.0% and a 68.2% cut number say pass, or at most a small top-20 dart. |
+9850 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023T33
Win+9850
Top 5+1653
Top 10+747
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T13 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T10
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
11.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 28 |
Kurt Kitayama
USA - OWGR #36
VALUE
|
The course-fit adjustment of -0.163 is the biggest red flag in this batch and it's showing up in the results — T41 and T60 in his two prior starts here, plus a T44 at the Genesis Scottish Open to warm up. The underlying ball-striking is legit (+0.47 OTT, +0.60 approach), and a T10 at the PGA proves he can show up in majors. But at +10390 with a 0.95% model win number and a cut rate below 65%, you're paying for upside the course profile actively fights against. Fade at the win number. |
+10390 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T41
2023T60
Win+10390
Top 5+1888
Top 10+874
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T44 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T25 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T53 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T22 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T10 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T19 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T9
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
10.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.16
Course History—
| |||
| 29 |
J.J. Spaun
USA - OWGR #13
VALUE
|
The +0.81 SG Approach is the best iron number in this entire group and it's not particularly close — that's the skill that carried him to a T5 at Truist, a T6 at Colonial, and a T7 at Travelers. OWGR 13 with a +1.28 SG Total is genuinely elite baseline talent, and the +10519 price feels stale given the profile. The knock is a MC at the U.S. Open and a MC at the PGA — the majors haven't clicked yet. Top-10 at +757 is the sharper angle than the outright. |
+10519 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T23
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10519
Top 5+1666
Top 10+757
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T44 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T7 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T12 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T6 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T5 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T14
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
11.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 30 |
Harris English
USA - OWGR #32
VALUE
|
Solo 2nd at this event in '25 is one of the best course-history data points in the entire field, and yet he's sitting at +10750 like nobody noticed. The +0.45 SG Putting is the standout skill here, which matters more on links greens than people admit, and he's got a T17 at Memorial and T18 at the PGA on the recent card. The Genesis Scottish MC is a real concern for form. But a proven runner-up here priced this deep is a legitimate top-10 overlay. |
+10750 |
Tournament History & Odds
20252
2024T50
2023MC
Win+10750
Top 5+1761
Top 10+773
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T38 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T17 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T18 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T24 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T55
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
11.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History—
| |||
| 31 |
Ben Griffin
USA - OWGR #16
VALUE
|
Three straight missed cuts at this event is a brutal history line and it's the reason he's +10991 despite a +1.44 SG Total that's actually the strongest number in this batch. The all-around game is real — +0.54 putting, +0.37 around the greens, a solo 3rd at the Charles Schwab and a 3rd at Miami earlier in the year. But links golf clearly isn't his thing yet, and the -0.033 course-fit adjustment agrees. Skill says bet, history says fade — I lean fade at the win number, dart at top 20. |
+10991 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023MC
Win+10991
Top 5+1752
Top 10+801
Recent Form
John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T21 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T10 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T17 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T3 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T14 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T63 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): 3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
11.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History—
| |||
| 32 |
Nicolai Hojgaard
DEN - OWGR #35
VALUE
|
The -0.272 course-fit adjustment is the worst mark in this batch by a wide margin, and it's a genuine warning sign at a major that punishes poor fits. The talent is obvious — +0.52 approach, a T2 at Truist, T14 here in '25 — but three missed cuts in his last five starts (U.S. Open, Canadian, Memorial) tell you the game isn't sharp. At +11876 with a 62.9% cut number, you're betting on a swing that hasn't been there since May. Easy pass on the outright. |
+11876 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T14
2024T66
2023T23
Win+11876
Top 5+1984
Top 10+929
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T26 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T2 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
9.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.27
Course History—
| |||
| 33 |
Rickie Fowler
USA - OWGR #42
VALUE
|
Runner-up at the Truist in May is the shiniest recent data point, but three straight missed cuts followed at Colonial, Memorial, and the U.S. Open before a middling T15 at the John Deere. The +0.23 SG Approach won't scare anyone in this field, and the model's 0.83% win number reflects a floor-play profile more than an actual contender. T14 here in '25 is the ceiling case at +11900, but this is a top-20 flier at best, not a serious outright. |
+11900 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T14
202471
2023T23
Win+11900
Top 5+2087
Top 10+930
Recent Form
John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T15 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T38 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T60 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T2 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T9
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
9.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 34 |
Bryson DeChambeau
USA - OWGR #37
VALUE
|
Two starts in the recent-form log, both missed cuts at the PGA and U.S. Open — that's a genuinely alarming sample for a player priced at +12095. The -0.306 course-fit adjustment is a red flag specifically because his bomber profile doesn't translate to links golf, and the MC here in '24 backs that up despite a T10 in '25. The raw +1.24 SG Total says he's talented enough to contend anywhere, but the model's 9.3% top-10 is generous given the current form. Fade at this number. |
+12095 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T10
2024MC
2023T60
Win+12095
Top 5+2093
Top 10+970
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
9.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.31
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 35 |
Adam Scott
AUS - OWGR #57
VALUE
|
The +0.51 SG Approach is elite for a player priced this deep, and the T10 here in '24 shows the game travels to links setups when the iron play shows up. Problem is the recent form is ugly — T66 at the Scottish, 65th at Travelers, MC at the U.S. Open — and the -0.12 SG Putting number is the same flatstick issue that's plagued him for a decade. At +12220 with a 9.7% top-10, he's a defensible top-20 dart but the win equity isn't really there. |
+12220 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T10
2023T33
Win+12220
Top 5+2036
Top 10+931
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T66 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 65 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T12 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T24 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T4
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
9.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.10
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 36 |
Keegan Bradley
USA - OWGR #41
VALUE
|
The Ryder Cup captain owns the most well-rounded stat line in this batch — +1.06 SG Total with positive marks across OTT, approach (+0.41), around the green (+0.30), and putting. Recent form is quietly solid too: T14 Travelers, T32 U.S. Open, T19 Memorial, T19 Truist, zero missed cuts outside the PGA. The catch is a T30/MC/MC record at this event, which is why the course-fit adjustment sits at -0.102 and the price is +12859. Live for a top-20, tough sell for the outright. |
+12859 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T30
2024MC
2023MC
Win+12859
Top 5+2153
Top 10+966
Recent Form
John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T26 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T32 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T19 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T19 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T49
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
9.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.10
Course History—
| |||
| 37 |
Alex Noren
SWE - OWGR #25
VALUE
|
The +0.134 course-fit adjustment is the best mark in this batch, which tracks for a Swede whose game was built on links-adjacent European Tour setups — and the +0.45 SG Putting backs the profile. But the raw talent number is thin: +0.50 SG Total is the weakest in this group, and the recent form (MC Scottish, MC U.S. Open, MC Canadian) is genuinely bad heading in. The 9 at Memorial is the one bright spot. At +13536 he's a course-fit tourist play, not a serious win contender. |
+13536 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T13
2023T23
Win+13536
Top 5+2297
Top 10+1002
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T55 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 9 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T31 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T7
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
9.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.13
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 38 |
Maverick McNealy
USA - OWGR #39
VALUE
|
Second-highest SG Total in this batch at +1.29, headlined by a scorching +0.52 SG Putting and +0.35 around the greens — the short-game combo that actually matters on links turf. The recent form is steady rather than spectacular (T10 Memorial, T18 PGA, T32 U.S. Open), and the T23 finish here in '25 was a solid debut-adjacent result. The -0.105 course-fit adjustment is the pushback and the reason he's +13599 despite the stat profile. Better value in the top-10 market than outright. |
+13599 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T23
2024MC
2023NA
Win+13599
Top 5+2234
Top 10+996
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T55 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T32 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T10 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T18 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
9.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.10
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 39 |
Corey Conners
CAN - OWGR #53
VALUE
|
The T10 here in '25 is the real hook — that's a legitimate top-tier finish at this event and the course-history line (T10/T25/T52) shows steady improvement in the sample. The +0.48 SG Approach is one of the better iron numbers in this batch and T7 at Travelers proves the game is current. The problem, as always, is the -0.09 SG Putting, which caps the outright ceiling and explains the 0.7% model win probability at +14152. Top-20 lean, hard pass on the outright. |
+14152 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T10
2024T25
2023T52
Win+14152
Top 5+2450
Top 10+1079
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T52 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T7 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 53 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T55 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T31 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History—
| |||
| 40 |
Kristoffer Reitan
NOR - OWGR #27
VALUE
|
Won the Truist in May — that's a full-field PGA Tour title from a player most bettors couldn't pick out of a lineup, and it's why he's OWGR #27 despite the limited sample. The follow-up has been uneven (T6 Memorial, T22 Travelers, but MCs at the U.S. Open and Scottish), and the T30 debut here in '25 is the only links data point on the card. At +14606 with a -0.14 course-fit adjustment, the win equity is genuinely thin — this is a live-arm dart, not a supported outright. |
+14606 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T30
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14606
Top 5+2373
Top 10+1075
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T22 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T60 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T6 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 1 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T14
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.14
Course History—
| |||
| 41 |
Ryan Gerard
USA - OWGR #28
VALUE
|
A solo 2nd at the Memorial is the headline finish for a player most casual bettors don't know exists, and it's backed by a T10 at Colonial and the field's #28 OWGR. The +1.12 SG Total and +0.46 approach mark are legitimate contender numbers, though the -0.032 course-fit adjustment flags the links transition as a real question for a debutant. At +14715 with zero Open reps, the price is fair rather than generous — dart-throw territory for a player whose ball-striking travels but whose adaptability is unproven. |
+14715 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14715
Top 5+2337
Top 10+1025
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T26 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T44 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 2 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T10 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T70 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T65 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History—
| |||
| 42 |
Victor Perez
FRA - OWGR #163
LONGSHOT
|
A T9 at the Genesis Scottish Open is exactly the pre-Open form you want to see from a Frenchman with legitimate links pedigree, and it's the only recent data point that matters at +15773. The résumé here is thin — MC in '24, T41 in '23 — and the #163 OWGR reflects a player who's fallen off the radar. The +0.41 SG OTT and +0.73 SG Total profile is playable in links wind, but the 0.63% model win number is honest about how deep this ticket really is. |
+15773 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023T41
Win+15773
Top 5+2456
Top 10+1084
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T9
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History—
| |||
| 43 |
Hideki Matsuyama
JPN - OWGR #31
LONGSHOT
|
Three straight made cuts at this event including a T13 in '23 and T16 in '25 — Hideki's Open record is quietly one of the better ones in this price range. The +0.48 SG Approach and +0.33 around the greens are elite tools for links golf, and the +0.007 course-fit plus +0.005 history adjustments both nudge in his favor. At +16204 for a former Masters champion with this ball-striking profile, this is a defensible outright dart even with the tepid recent form (T14 at Travelers being the high point). |
+16204 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T16
2024T66
2023T13
Win+16204
Top 5+2517
Top 10+1092
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T65 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T43 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T13 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 71 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T53
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 44 |
Akshay Bhatia
USA - OWGR #29
LONGSHOT
|
A T5 at the Travelers and T17 at the U.S. Open show the game is trending in the right direction, and the +0.53 SG Putting leads this entire batch — a weapon on Open greens. The +1.10 SG Total is contender-grade, though the -0.015 course-fit adjustment and a shaky links résumé (MC in '24, T30 in '25) are the reasons +16293 exists. Priced fairly given the unresolved links question, but the ball-striking-plus-putting combo makes him a live top-20 play. |
+16293 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T30
2024MC
2023NA
Win+16293
Top 5+2710
Top 10+1189
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T5 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T17 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T28 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 45 |
Jordan Spieth
USA - OWGR #51
LONGSHOT
|
Three straight made cuts at the Open (T23, T25, T40) and the +0.043 course history adjustment reflect a player who's always in the mix here — he's a former Champion Golfer, after all. The problem is everything else: -0.094 course fit is the worst in this batch, recent form reads T58-T66-T56-MC, and the SG Total has slipped to just +0.70. At +16660 the name equity is doing the pricing work, not the numbers. Fade on outright, live only for a nostalgia-driven top-20 sprinkle. |
+16660 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T40
2024T25
2023T23
Win+16660
Top 5+2760
Top 10+1203
Recent Form
John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T58 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T66 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T56 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T18 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T52 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.09
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 46 |
Brian Harman
USA - OWGR #64
LONGSHOT
|
The 2023 champion at Royal Liverpool followed it up with a T10 at this event in '25, and the +0.107 course-fit adjustment is the highest in this entire batch — this is the profile of a player whose game is built for links golf. The +0.35 approach and +0.21 putting numbers hold up, even if the +0.59 SG Total looks pedestrian on the surface. At +17141 for a proven Open winner with elite fit, this is one of the better longshot outrights on the board. |
+17141 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T10
2024T60
20231
Win+17141
Top 5+2572
Top 10+1135
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T36 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T25 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T32 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T22 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T60 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T31 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.11
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 47 |
Matt Wallace
ENG - OWGR #72
LONGSHOT
|
The +0.49 SG Approach is the best iron mark in this batch and the kind of number that plays anywhere, but a Genesis Scottish Open MC right before this is the exact opposite of a confidence-builder. Open history is uninspiring — T45, T41, MC — and the +0.55 SG Total is the lowest ceiling in this group of eight. At +17342 with a 0.57% model win, there's no obvious edge here. Pass on outright, marginal top-20 consideration only if the iron play shows up early. |
+17342 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T45
2024T41
2023MC
Win+17342
Top 5+2695
Top 10+1176
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T33 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 48 |
Brooks Koepka
USA - OWGR #118
LONGSHOT
|
Three straight MCs across the Scottish, U.S. Open, and a WD from the Canadian is genuinely alarming form from a four-time major winner, and the #118 OWGR tells you the LIV era has not been kind. The -0.102 course-fit adjustment is the worst in this batch, the Open history reads MC-T43-T64, and the +0.42 SG Total is the thinnest profile of anyone here. At +18768 the name gets people to click, but this is a hard fade — there's no data point pointing toward contention. |
+18768 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T43
2023T64
Win+18768
Top 5+3284
Top 10+1416
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): WD • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T14 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T55 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T11
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
6.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.10
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 49 |
Bud Cauley
USA - OWGR #40
LONGSHOT
|
Winner of the RBC Canadian Open followed by a T14 at the Travelers — Cauley has quietly been one of the more consistent ball-strikers on tour, posting +0.51 SG Approach and +0.93 SG Total. The problem is links golf: his only Open start was a missed cut in '25, the course fit adjustment sits at -0.01, and the model gives him just a 0.47% win probability. At +21329, he's a defensible top-20 dart (15.9%) but the outright number is fair-to-slightly-short. |
+21329 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+21329
Top 5+2916
Top 10+1254
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T56 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): 1 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T22 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 50 |
Keith Mitchell
USA - OWGR #68
LONGSHOT
|
A T4 at the U.S. Open and a solo 5th at the Byron Nelson prove Mitchell can show up in big fields, and the +0.52 SG OTT is legitimately elite for a bomber's setup. But he's never played an Open Championship, the course fit adjustment is a brutal -0.154, and the model has him at 0.46% to win. At +21561 with no links pedigree, this is a pass — the top-10 at +1521 is the only playable angle. |
+21561 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+21561
Top 5+3476
Top 10+1521
Recent Form
John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T51 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T22 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T4 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T29 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 5 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T65 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T55
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
6.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.15
Course History—
| |||
| 51 |
Jordan Smith
ENG - OWGR #78
LONGSHOT
|
Three Open starts, two made cuts including a T41 in '23 and T45 in '25 — Smith at least knows how to survive a links weekend, and the T21 at the Genesis Scottish suggests the game is trending. The underlying numbers are thin though: +0.57 SG Total, -0.22 putting, and a -0.068 course fit hit. The +22040 outright price reflects a player whose realistic ceiling is a top-30, and the model's 6.4% top-10 confirms it. |
+22040 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T45
2024MC
2023T41
Win+22040
Top 5+3334
Top 10+1451
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T21 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T13 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T59 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T55
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
6.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History—
| |||
| 52 |
Eugenio Chacarra
ESP - OWGR #59
LONGSHOT
|
One data point on links grass — a T52 at the Genesis Scottish — is thin evidence for an Open debut, and the -0.116 course fit adjustment says the model isn't buying the profile either. The raw skill is real (+0.87 SG Total, balanced across OTT and approach), but LIV players making their Open debut at +22040 with a 0.45% model win rate are lottery tickets, not investments. Skip the outright, consider a small top-20 stab at +14.7% implied. |
+22040 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+22040
Top 5+3344
Top 10+1418
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T52
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
6.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.12
Course History—
| |||
| 53 |
Alex Smalley
USA - OWGR #44
LONGSHOT
|
Look at the spring — T2 at the PGA Championship, T3 at Colonial, T7 in Miami — Smalley has been genuinely excellent in big fields, and the +0.23 SG Putting is the best mark in this group. The concern is a rough June-July stretch (three straight MCs at Memorial, U.S. Open, and the Genesis Scottish) heading into his first Open Championship. At +22456 with zero links reps, the PGA runner-up form makes him tempting, but recent trajectory is a red flag. |
+22456 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+22456
Top 5+3529
Top 10+1526
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T47 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T3 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T2 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T17 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T7
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
6.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History—
| |||
| 54 |
Ryan Fox
NZL - OWGR #56
LONGSHOT
|
Two made cuts in three Open starts including a T25 at Royal Troon in '24 gives Fox a functional links baseline, and the Kiwi has looked steady with a T8 at the RBC Canadian and T23 at the U.S. Open. But the underlying skill has slipped — +0.51 SG Total is modest, the course fit adjustment is -0.111, and the model win probability of 0.44% matches the +22801 price almost exactly. Fair number, no edge. |
+22801 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T25
2023T52
Win+22801
Top 5+3455
Top 10+1428
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T30 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T66 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T8 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T27 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 67 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
6.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.11
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 55 |
Michael Thorbjornsen
USA - OWGR #70
LONGSHOT
|
The T7 at the Genesis Scottish is a legitimate links tune-up and probably the most interesting data point in this tier — Thorbjornsen showed he can handle wind and firm turf on debut. The concern is everything else: MCs at the PGA, Byron Nelson, and John Deere, and a -0.15 course fit adjustment that flags him as a poor profile match. At +23900 for his Open debut, the Scottish result is real but the 0.42% model win probability says one week doesn't rewrite the book. |
+23900 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+23900
Top 5+3560
Top 10+1537
Recent Form
Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T7 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T54 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): 16 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T53
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
6.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.15
Course History—
| |||
Round 1 — 3-Balls
| Grp | Tee Time | Hole | Player 1 | Odds | Player 2 | Odds | Player 3 | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 06:35 | 1 | Matthew Baldwin | +280 | Thomas Detry | +103 | James Nicholas | +308 |
| 2 | 06:46 | 1 | Andy Sullivan | +232 | Michael Kim | +168 | Daniel Hillier | +207 |
| 3 | 06:57 | 1 | Ryan Fox | +163 | Andrew Novak | +197 | Matthew Jordan | +253 |
| 4 | 07:08 | 1 | Henrik Stenson | +260 | Joe Dean | +235 | Max Homa | +136 |
| 5 | 07:19 | 1 | Rickie Fowler | +261 | Robert MacIntyre | +157 | Alex Fitzpatrick | +200 |
| 6 | 07:30 | 1 | David Duval | +489 | Matthew Southgate | +180 | Martin Couvra | +112 |
| 7 | 07:41 | 1 | Sungjae Im | +114 | Dan Brown | +149 | Fifa Laopakdee | +660 |
| 8 | 07:52 | 1 | Gary Woodland | +204 | Jordan Smith | +179 | Jake Knapp | +221 |
| 9 | 08:03 | 1 | Francesco Molinari | +171 | Tom McKibbin | +117 | Lev Grinberg | +491 |
| 10 | 08:14 | 1 | Hennie Du Plessis | +170 | Jose Luis Ballester | +229 | Dan Bradbury | +207 |
| 11 | 08:25 | 1 | Victor Perez | +101 | Angel Ayora | +154 | Mateo Pulcini | +825 |
| 12 | 08:36 | 1 | Stewart Cink | +157 | Scott Vincent | +180 | Joakim Lagergren | +293 |
| 13 | 08:47 | 1 | Trav Smyth | +333 | Michael Thorbjornsen | +129 | Kota Kaneko | +201 |
| 14 | 09:03 | 1 | Alex Smalley | +181 | Ryo Hisatsune | +211 | Sam Stevens | +211 |
| 15 | 09:14 | 1 | Harris English | +147 | Rasmus Hojgaard | +302 | Akshay Bhatia | +189 |
| 16 | 09:25 | 1 | Hideki Matsuyama | +238 | Min Woo Lee | +168 | Ben Griffin | +202 |
| 17 | 09:36 | 1 | Justin Rose | +214 | Russell Henley | +224 | Viktor Hovland | +168 |
| 18 | 09:47 | 1 | Jason Day | +268 | Alex Noren | +198 | Justin Thomas | +155 |
| 19 | 09:58 | 1 | Tyrrell Hatton | +241 | Scottie Scheffler | +107 | Bryson DeChambeau | +347 |
| 20 | 10:09 | 1 | Tommy Fleetwood | +135 | Jordan Spieth | +365 | Jon Rahm | +178 |
| 21 | 10:20 | 1 | Brian Harman | +228 | Nick Taylor | +263 | Si Woo Kim | +138 |
| 22 | 10:31 | 1 | Maverick McNealy | +179 | David Puig | +258 | Ryan Gerard | +176 |
| 23 | 10:42 | 1 | Tom Sloman | +351 | Kazuma Kobori | -169 | David Howard | +565 |
| 24 | 10:53 | 1 | Antoine Rozner | +152 | Ren Yonezawa | +220 | Caleb Surratt | +243 |
| 25 | 11:04 | 1 | Jack McDonald | +258 | MJ Daffue | +185 | Frederic LaCroix | +171 |
| 26 | 11:15 | 1 | Ryutaro Nagano | +170 | Jeong Woo Ham | +176 | Alejandro De Castro Piera | +275 |
| 27 | 11:41 | 1 | John Parry | +142 | Eric Cole | +127 | Tiger Christensen | +578 |
| 28 | 11:52 | 1 | Matt Wallace | +175 | Max Greyserman | +230 | Eugenio Chacarra | +200 |
| 29 | 12:03 | 1 | Laurie Canter | +208 | Sahith Theegala | +179 | Michael Brennan | +216 |
| 30 | 12:14 | 1 | Cameron Smith | +151 | Keith Mitchell | +128 | Stuart Grehan | +520 |
| 31 | 12:25 | 1 | Sepp Straka | +277 | Joaquin Niemann | +163 | Kurt Kitayama | +183 |
| 32 | 12:36 | 1 | Shaun Norris | +242 | Sami Valimaki | +189 | Jackson Suber | +176 |
| 33 | 12:47 | 1 | Darren Clarke | +331 | Bernd Wiesberger | +145 | Adrien Saddier | +178 |
| 34 | 12:58 | 1 | Keegan Bradley | +179 | Corey Conners | +186 | Casey Jarvis | +242 |
| 35 | 13:09 | 1 | Haotong Li | +218 | Harry Hall | +180 | Matt McCarty | +205 |
| 36 | 13:20 | 1 | Padraig Harrington | +206 | Michael Hollick | +271 | Marco Penge | +148 |
| 37 | 13:31 | 1 | Billy Horschel | +217 | Tom Kim | -130 | Mason Howell | +732 |
| 38 | 13:42 | 1 | Keita Nakajima | +210 | Pierceson Coody | +200 | Johnny Keefer | +191 |
| 39 | 13:53 | 1 | Jesper Svensson | +134 | Aldrich Potgieter | +162 | Jack Buchanan | +423 |
| 40 | 14:09 | 1 | Bud Cauley | +157 | Lucas Herbert | +239 | Jayden Schaper | +216 |
| 41 | 14:20 | 1 | Patrick Reed | +162 | Kristoffer Reitan | +209 | J.T. Poston | +240 |
| 42 | 14:31 | 1 | Adam Scott | +233 | Sam Burns | +190 | Chris Gotterup | +181 |
| 43 | 14:42 | 1 | J.J. Spaun | +205 | Collin Morikawa | +169 | Nicolai Hojgaard | +234 |
| 44 | 14:53 | 1 | Shane Lowry | +163 | Brooks Koepka | +284 | Aaron Rai | +178 |
| 45 | 15:04 | 1 | Wyndham Clark | +209 | Ludvig Aberg | +183 | Cameron Young | +209 |
| 46 | 15:15 | 1 | Rory McIlroy | +183 | Matt Fitzpatrick | +181 | Xander Schauffele | +245 |
| 47 | 15:26 | 1 | Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | +169 | Jacob Bridgeman | +136 | Tim Wiedemeyer | +390 |
| 48 | 15:37 | 1 | Patrick Cantlay | +121 | Daniel Berger | +263 | Nico Echavarria | +267 |
| 49 | 15:48 | 1 | Peter Uihlein | +260 | Francesco Laporta | +158 | Alistair Docherty | +199 |
| 50 | 15:59 | 1 | Austen Truslow | +192 | Cameron John | +307 | Sam Bairstow | +143 |
| 51 | 16:10 | 1 | Naoyuki Kataoka | +187 | Baard Skogen | +162 | Marcus Plunkett | +270 |
| 52 | 16:21 | 1 | Jiho Yang | +268 | Kazuki Higa | +114 | Nevill Ruiter | +283 |