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// BETTING PREVIEW - MAY 21-24
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson
May 21-24, 2026 | McKinney, Texas
⛅ Tournament Weather Forecast
Expect partly cloudy skies with highs in the 80F range and light winds around 10 mph throughout the week. Some rain is possible, making for ideal scoring conditions.
Miller
- Win:TBD-
- Top 5:TBD-
- Top 10:TBD-
Kevin
- Win:TBD-
- Top 5:TBD-
- Top 10:TBD-
Andrew
- Win:TBD-
- Top 5:TBD-
- Top 10:TBD-
Kcon
- Win:TBD-
- Top 5:TBD-
- Top 10:TBD-
Parbeh
- Win:TBD-
- Top 5:TBD-
- Top 10:TBD-
JB
- Win:TBD-
- Top 5:TBD-
- Top 10:TBD-
Scottie Scheffler is the most dominant favorite we've modeled all season, with a 30.2% win probability at +231 — his +2.86 SG Total leads the field by a staggering 1.35 strokes, and he ranks top-3 in both ball-striking (+1.12 SG Approach) and putting (+0.47 SG Putting). Beyond the chalk, Si Woo Kim (+1570) offers the week's best risk-adjusted value with a 6.0% model win probability, elite approach play (+0.69, 2nd in field), and a T2 finish here in 2023. In the longshot tier, Davis Thompson (+5400) profiles as a premium play — his +0.84 SG Total ranks 4th in the entire field, his approach game ranks 4th, and his 18.4% top-10 probability makes him a must-add to cards at this price.
Scheffler Is a Category of One
Scottie Scheffler's +2.86 SG Total is 1.35 strokes clear of the next-best player in the field (Si Woo Kim at +1.51). He leads SG Approach at +1.12, ranks 3rd in SG Putting at +0.47, and won this event in 2025 with a T5 in 2023. Our model gives him a 30.2% win probability — at +231, there's still meaningful edge despite the short price.
Scottie Scheffler
Si Woo Kim: Best Value on Board
At +1570, Si Woo Kim carries a 6.0% model win probability against an implied 5.9% — but the real story is his complete profile: 2nd in SG Total (+1.51), 2nd in SG Approach (+0.69), a strong course fit adjustment (+0.016), and three consecutive made cuts here including a T2 in 2023. This is an elite price for the field's clear second-best player.
Si Woo Kim
Jordan Spieth's Sneaky Strong Profile
Spieth at +2483 carries a 3.9% model win probability with the 3rd-best SG Total in the field (+1.10) and a positive course fit (+0.018). His 4th-place finish here in 2025 signals he's figured out TPC Craig Ranch. At nearly 25-to-1, he's a core outright play with serious place equity.
Jordan Spieth
Davis Thompson: Elite Longshot Profile
Thompson's +0.84 SG Total ranks 4th in the entire 147-player field, his SG Approach (+0.43) ranks 4th, and the model gives him an 18.4% top-10 probability at +5400. Prior results here (MC, T70) are a concern, but his current form vastly outpaces those earlier trips. A top-5/top-10 play is the sharper angle.
Davis Thompson
Koepka's Approach Game Fits Perfectly
Brooks Koepka ranks 3rd in the field in SG Approach (+0.44) and carries a 2.0% model win probability at +4790. His ball-striking profile matches what TPC Craig Ranch demands — length off the tee and precision into greens. At nearly 48-to-1 with no negative course history markers, he's a live outright dart.
Brooks Koepka
Pierceson Coody: Course Fit Sleeper
Coody's +0.019 course fit adjustment is the 3rd-highest among players with real win equity, and his +0.72 SG Total ranks 6th in the field. At +5400, the model gives him an 18.5% top-10 probability — the highest among all longshots analyzed. His T25 in 2025 shows recent improvement at this venue after back-to-back MCs.
Pierceson Coody
Thorbjornsen's All-Around Game Translates
Michael Thorbjornsen at +5019 carries the highest course fit score (+0.020) among all value longshots and a solid +0.70 SG Total (8th in field). His 18.1% top-10 probability and well-rounded strokes gained profile make him an ideal each-way or top-20 play in a field this soft beneath Scheffler.
Michael Thorbjornsen
Wyndham Clark: Fading the Name
Clark at +6086 looks tempting by reputation, but his +0.61 SG Total ranks just 11th in the field, his course fit adjustment is a modest +0.010, and the model assigns only a 1.6% win probability. With five players ahead of him offering better profiles at similar or longer odds, Clark is a pass this week.
Wyndham Clark
Keith Mitchell: Bomber's Paradise Value
Mitchell at +5598 brings a 17.5% top-10 probability with solid course history (T20 in 2024) and a +0.63 SG Total. His power game fits TPC Craig Ranch's wide fairways and reachable par-5s. A top-20 or top-10 sprinkle at this price offers excellent return on investment.
Keith Mitchell
Ryo Hisatsune: Highest Floor Among Longshots
Hisatsune's +0.83 SG Total ranks 5th in the field — higher than several players priced significantly shorter. His 19.9% top-10 probability is the best among all longshots at +5015. The MC in 2025 is a yellow flag, but the T13 in 2024 and elite current form suggest that was an outlier. A top-10 bet at this price carries a nearly 1-in-5 hit rate per the model.
Ryo Hisatsune
Complete Betting Board
| # | Player | Why They Could Win | Win Odds GolfData API |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Scottie Scheffler
USA - OWGR #1
FAVORITE
|
The defending champ won this event in 2025 and finished T5 in 2023, so the course fit isn't a question — and neither is the form, with three runner-up finishes in his last four starts before a T14 at Valhalla. SG Total of +2.86 with +1.12 Approach leads the field by a country mile, and the model spits out a 30.2% win probability against a +231 price that implies roughly 30%. Fair number, not a steal, but the Top 10 at -263 is the cleanest play on the board. |
+231 |
Tournament History & Odds
20251
2024NA
2023T5
Win+231
Top 5-146
Top 10-263
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T14 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): 2 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 2 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 2 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T22 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
30.2%
Top 10 Probability
72.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 2 |
Si Woo Kim
USA - OWGR #24
CONTENDER
|
Three straight strong TPC Craig Ranch results — T2 in 2023, T13 in 2024, T15 in 2025 — and the model rates him the clear second-best play here at 6.0% to win. The +1570 number is generous when his ball-striking profile (+0.60 OTT, +0.69 Approach) fits exactly what this course rewards, and he's coming off a T4 in Miami and a runner-up at Hilton Head in April. Worth a sprinkle outright; the +167 Top 10 is the real value. |
+1570 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T15
2024T13
2023T2
Win+1570
Top 5+326
Top 10+167
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T65 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T4 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 3 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 47 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T10 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T7 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T50 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T42 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
6.0%
Top 10 Probability
37.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 3 |
Jordan Spieth
USA - OWGR #47
CONTENDER
|
Solo 4th here last year and the largest course history adjustment in this group (+0.048) for a hometown kid who clearly sees the lines at Craig Ranch. The form is steady too — T18 at the PGA, T12 at the Masters, T11 at both Valspar and Bay Hill — and the model gives him a 28.8% Top 10 shot at +247. Spieth at +2483 outright in a non-major where the putter matters is exactly the spot you take a swing. Underpriced. |
+2483 |
Tournament History & Odds
20254
2024MC
2023NA
Win+2483
Top 5+480
Top 10+247
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T18 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T52 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T18 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T63 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T11 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T11
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.9%
Top 10 Probability
28.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.05
| |||
| 4 |
Brooks Koepka
USA - OWGR #111
CONTENDER
|
No course history to lean on and an OWGR of 111, but the underlying numbers are quietly rebuilding: T12 at Augusta, T13 at THE PLAYERS, T11 at Myrtle Beach, and a +0.44 SG Approach mark that still plays. The putter (-0.17) is the anchor, and Craig Ranch is a birdie-fest where you can't hide a cold flatstick. At +4790 he's a name-brand dart, but the model's 2.04% win number says the price is roughly fair, not a gift. Pass on the outright, consider Top 20 at +180-ish. |
+4790 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+4790
Top 5+851
Top 10+418
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T55 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T11 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T18 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.0%
Top 10 Probability
19.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 5 |
Ryo Hisatsune
USA - OWGR #60
VALUE
|
T13 here in 2024 before a missed cut last year, and the recent form has one real highlight — a T8 at the Valero — surrounded by middling results in the 30s and 60s. SG numbers are respectable across the board (+0.38 Approach, +0.35 OTT) and the model actually likes him more than the market does at 1.96% to win versus a +5015 implied 1.9%. Marginal edge, nothing to hammer. Top 20 at roughly +200 is the cleaner angle than the outright. |
+5015 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T13
2023NA
Win+5015
Top 5+829
Top 10+403
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T45 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T65 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T60 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T8 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T30 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T33
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.0%
Top 10 Probability
19.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 6 |
Michael Thorbjornsen
USA - OWGR #70
VALUE
|
Big off-the-tee number (+0.50 SG OTT) for a young bomber who should love a wide-open Craig Ranch setup, but the approach play (+0.20) and putter (-0.06) are why he's missed cuts at the PGA and Valero recently. T33 here in 2025 in his debut suggests the course fit is real even if the polish isn't. At +5019 he's a sweat, not a play — the model's 1.95% matches the price almost exactly. Skip the outright. |
+5019 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T33
2024NA
2023NA
Win+5019
Top 5+935
Top 10+452
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T53 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T13 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T14 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T22 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T33
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.9%
Top 10 Probability
18.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 7 |
Davis Thompson
USA - OWGR #128
VALUE
|
The form is the sell here: T6 at Zurich (with a partner, grain of salt), T13 at Myrtle Beach, T14 at Valero, and a solo 4th in Puerto Rico all in the last two months. SG Total of +0.84 is legit and the +0.43 Approach mark plays anywhere, though his course history (MC in 2024, T70 in 2023) is a genuine red flag the model docks him -0.027 for. At +5400 outright it's a stab, but he's a sneaky Top 20 ticket given the recent scoring. |
+5400 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023T70
Win+5400
Top 5+926
Top 10+444
Recent Form
Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T13 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T6 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T14 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T46 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): 4
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
18.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 8 |
Pierceson Coody
USA - OWGR #57
VALUE
|
Texas kid, Texas course, and finally a Craig Ranch result to build on after T25 in 2025 broke a two-year MC streak. The driver is the calling card (+0.54 SG OTT, top-quartile in this field) and a T16 at Hilton Head plus T24 at Truist suggest the game is trending. Short game is the problem — -0.14 Around the Green is ugly — and at +5400 with a 1.82% model win rate, the price is honest. Lean Top 20, fade the outright. |
+5400 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T25
2024MC
2023MC
Win+5400
Top 5+916
Top 10+440
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T24 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): WD • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T55 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
18.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 9 |
Keith Mitchell
USA - OWGR #108
VALUE
|
The +0.51 SG Off-the-Tee is the calling card and Craig Ranch absolutely rewards it, but the form chart is a mess: T65 at the PGA, T55 in Miami, MC at Valero, with only the T14 in Houston to point to. At +5598 with a 1.75% model win number, you're paying for the ball-striking ceiling and hoping the putter (-0.09) finds something. Top-20 at 30.8% is the actual play here — the outright is a stretch. |
+5598 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T20
2023NA
Win+5598
Top 5+993
Top 10+473
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T65 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T55 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T30 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T14 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T46 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T33
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
17.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 10 |
Wyndham Clark
USA - OWGR #75
VALUE
|
Zero course history, zero off-the-tee edge (+0.01 SG OTT at a bomber's track), and a missed cut at the PGA last week. That's a tough combo to back at +6086, even with a former major winner's name on the board. The T16 at Harbour Town and T21 at Augusta say the iron play is rounding into shape, but Craig Ranch is the wrong week to chase a Clark bounce-back. Fade at this number. |
+6086 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+6086
Top 5+1060
Top 10+519
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T20 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T21 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T42
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
16.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 11 |
Taylor Pendrith
USA - OWGR #82
VALUE
|
He won this thing in 2024, and that's the entire investment thesis at +6379. The course history adjustment (+0.032) is the biggest in this group for a reason, and the +0.48 SG OTT fits Craig Ranch like a glove. Problem: he missed the cut here in 2025 and the 2026 form is genuinely ugly — MC at Zurich, MC in Houston, MC at Valspar. Defending-champion-tier history at a longshot price is interesting; the current ball-striking is not. |
+6379 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
20241
2023NA
Win+6379
Top 5+1071
Top 10+518
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T71 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T46 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T38
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
16.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 12 |
Rasmus Hojgaard
USA - OWGR #67
VALUE
|
Hot putter (+0.30 SG Putting) is doing most of the heavy lifting on a 0.49 SG Total profile that's otherwise pedestrian — the approach number sits at just +0.08 and the short game (-0.12) is a real leak. A 48th here in 2025 isn't a history edge, and the recent form (T65 PGA, 53 Masters, T68 Valspar) doesn't scream breakout. At +7199 with a 1.37% model win, the price is fair but the path requires the flatstick to stay scorching all four days. |
+7199 |
Tournament History & Odds
202548
2024NA
2023NA
Win+7199
Top 5+1162
Top 10+561
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T65 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T24 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 53 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T68 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
15.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 13 |
Jordan Smith
USA - OWGR #71
VALUE
|
Best pure ball-striker in this group on paper: +0.50 SG OTT and +0.37 SG Approach, with a solo 3rd at Valspar in March proving the ceiling is real. The catch is a -0.23 putter and three missed cuts in his last six starts, including the PGA. No course history at Craig Ranch either, so you're betting on the irons carrying a cold putter on greens he's never seen. At +7837 it's a defensible dart, but the top-20 (26.8%) is the smarter ticket. |
+7837 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+7837
Top 5+1284
Top 10+602
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T55 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T44 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): 3 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
14.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 14 |
Michael Brennan
USA - OWGR #56
VALUE
|
Elite +0.86 SG Off-the-Tee headlines the profile and it's the largest course fit adjustment (+0.027) in this batch — Craig Ranch should let him air it out. The around-green (-0.24) and putting (-0.25) numbers are scary though, and an 81st at the PGA last week is a real concern. T24 at the Masters shows he can hang on a big stage, but at +7858 with no course history, this is a ball-striker-prays-the-putter-cooperates lottery ticket. |
+7858 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+7858
Top 5+1262
Top 10+603
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): 81 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T24 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): 69 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T26
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
14.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History—
| |||
| 15 |
Sungjae Im
USA - OWGR #72
VALUE
|
T5 at the Truist two starts ago is the data point that matters, and it's the only reason to even consider him at +7943 after a PGA missed cut. The -0.15 SG Approach is a glaring red flag at a course where iron play sets up the birdie barrage, and the T33 here in 2025 doesn't move the needle. Sungjae always feels like he should contend in Texas, but the approach numbers say this isn't the week. Pass on the outright. |
+7943 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T33
2024NA
2023NA
Win+7943
Top 5+1220
Top 10+580
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T5 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T65 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 46 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T60 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T4 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
14.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 16 |
Mac Meissner
USA - OWGR #105
VALUE
|
T9 at Myrtle Beach and T10 at Zurich back-to-back, and the +0.71 SG Total is quietly the best mark in this entire longshot group. The course history is the ugly part — T65, MC, MC at Craig Ranch — which is why the model docks him -0.064 on history adjustment. But the 2026 version of Meissner (+0.30 Approach, +0.18 Putting) is a different player than the one who showed up here before. At +8119, the top-20 at 28.5% is a legitimate value play. |
+8119 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T65
2024MC
2023MC
Win+8119
Top 5+1225
Top 10+559
Recent Form
Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T9 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T10 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T30 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
15.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History-0.06
| |||
| 17 |
Max Greyserman
USA - OWGR #63
VALUE
|
T14 at the PGA Championship is a legit data point, and it's the only one in his recent form that doesn't scream 'fade me.' Three missed cuts in his last six starts, a -0.09 SG OTT, and a missed cut here in 2024 add up to a profile that doesn't justify the +8750 number. Model gives him 1.13% to win and a 64% cut probability — that's roughly market price, which means there's no edge. Pass. |
+8750 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023NA
Win+8750
Top 5+1404
Top 10+672
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T14 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T31 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
13.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 18 |
Rico Hoey
USA - OWGR #89
VALUE
|
Best ball-striking combo in this longshot batch — +0.48 SG OTT paired with +0.32 SG Approach — and the course fit adjustment (+0.013) is the most favorable of the group. The problem is everything from 100 yards in: -0.12 around the green, -0.26 putting, and zero top-20s since Valspar in March. At +8763 you're betting on a ball-striker who can't finish; the price is fair, not generous. |
+8763 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T52
2024MC
2023NA
Win+8763
Top 5+1383
Top 10+641
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T60 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T53 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T26 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T39 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T26 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T62
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
13.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 19 |
Tom Kim
USA - OWGR #141
VALUE
|
T6 at Myrtle Beach two weeks ago snapped a brutal stretch of three straight missed cuts or 50+ finishes, and the +0.31 SG Approach is the second-best iron number in this group. He's also got course reps with a T34 in 2023 and T52 in 2024 — not great, but he's seen it. At +9656 with a 1.03% model win number, this is essentially priced to the model. Take a stab on Top 20 (+2590-ish equivalent) before the outright. |
+9656 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T52
2023T34
Win+9656
Top 5+1363
Top 10+642
Recent Form
Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T6 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T56 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
13.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 20 |
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
USA - OWGR #88
VALUE
|
The +0.44 SG Putting and +0.26 around the green are the best short-game combo in this entire batch, and the course history adjustment (+0.031) quietly leads the group. But the -0.41 SG OTT is a real problem at a venue that doesn't shorten up — he's giving away half a shot a round before he even hits an iron. T6 at Myrtle Beach hints at form; +10353 is roughly right, lean Top 20 over win. |
+10353 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023T23
Win+10353
Top 5+1456
Top 10+644
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T6 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T17 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T39 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T51 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T30 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
13.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 21 |
Haotong Li
USA - OWGR #80
VALUE
|
Five missed cuts in his last eight starts is the headline, and there's no sugarcoating it. The T35 at the PGA and T38 at the Masters are the only signs of life, and he's never teed it up at this course. +0.34 SG OTT is a nice number but the -0.17 around the green and -0.08 putting make scoring a chore. At +10653 with a 0.93% model win, this is a hard pass — the form trumps the underlying. |
+10653 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10653
Top 5+1678
Top 10+765
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): MC • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T38 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
11.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 22 |
Blades Brown
USA - OWGR #112
VALUE
|
No SG data because the sample is too thin, but the kid finished solo 3rd in Puerto Rico and T9 at Myrtle Beach in his last four starts — three of those four were top-40s. He missed the cut here in 2023 as an amateur, which barely counts. The +10672 price is a pure dart on a 19-year-old playing his best stretch as a pro; model has him at 0.93%, which feels low given the trajectory. Top 20 ticket (+2280) is the play, not the outright. |
+10672 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023MC
Win+10672
Top 5+1700
Top 10+773
Recent Form
Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T9 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T26 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T40 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): 3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
11.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 23 |
Eric Cole
USA - OWGR #118
VALUE
|
Three straight top-15s — T6 at Myrtle Beach, T6 at Zurich, T14 at Valero — and a T5 at this course in 2025 give him the best combined form-plus-history case in this batch. Course history adjustment of +0.033 is the largest in the group. The -0.54 SG OTT is the obvious worry, but +0.42 putting and +0.31 around the green are doing the work. At +10970 the model says 0.9% but the recent form says closer to 1.5%; that's a small edge worth taking. |
+10970 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T5
2024NA
2023T23
Win+10970
Top 5+1629
Top 10+734
Recent Form
Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T6 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T6 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T14 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T51 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
12.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 24 |
Matti Schmid
USA - OWGR #65
VALUE
|
Solo T4 at the PGA Championship was a career week, and he backed it up with a T10 at Zurich and a T5 in Puerto Rico earlier this spring. The catch: three missed cuts in three tries at this course, and the -0.036 course history adjustment is the worst in this batch by a wide margin. The 0.25 SG Total profile is also the weakest underlying here. +11136 is fair — the form says yes, the venue says no. Fade for outright, consider for top-20. |
+11136 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023MC
Win+11136
Top 5+1769
Top 10+800
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T4 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): MC • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T10 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): 74 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T40 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T46 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T5
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
11.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History-0.04
| |||
| 25 |
Doug Ghim
USA - OWGR #186
VALUE
|
Two cuts made at this venue in three tries — T19 in 2023 and T33 in 2025 — paired with a fresh T6 at the Zurich and T19 at Myrtle Beach two weeks ago paints a player rounding into form. The +0.34 SG OTT and +0.24 approach numbers are legit, but the -0.24 putting is what caps the ceiling here. At +11242 with a 12.2% top-10 number, the place-market ticket is where the value lives, not the outright. |
+11242 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T33
2024MC
2023T19
Win+11242
Top 5+1613
Top 10+717
Recent Form
Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T19 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T6 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T30 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T40 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T26
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
12.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 26 |
Max McGreevy
USA - OWGR #84
VALUE
|
Back-to-back missed cuts at the PGA and Myrtle Beach are ugly, but the underlying numbers — +0.27 OTT, +0.25 approach — are better than the OWGR #84 suggests. T15 here in 2025 shows the course fits his ball-striking profile, and the -0.20 putting is the obvious leak dragging the +11416 price down. Hard to back outright when the form is this choppy; he's a make-cut/top-30 dart at best. |
+11416 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T15
2024T30
2023MC
Win+11416
Top 5+1662
Top 10+750
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): MC • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T32 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T19 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T50
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
11.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 27 |
Stephan Jaeger
USA - OWGR #93
VALUE
|
T18 at the PGA Championship was a quiet reminder that this guy plays his best golf when the venue rewards short-game touch, and his +0.28 around-the-green plus +0.24 putting are the best short-game combo in this group. Course history checks out too — T20 in 2024, T11 in 2023 — with a +0.012 history adjustment baked in. The -0.29 OTT is the problem at +12505, and the 0.79% win number reflects it. Top-20 ticket at best. |
+12505 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T56
2024T20
2023T11
Win+12505
Top 5+1847
Top 10+839
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T18 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): MC • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T59 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T7 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T62
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
10.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 28 |
Adrien Dumont De Chassart
USA - OWGR #156
VALUE
|
The +0.018 course history adjustment is one of the highest in this longshot tier despite only one prior appearance (T30 in 2024), which tells you the model thinks the fit is real. T12 at Houston and T17 at Zurich show he travels well in Texas, and the balanced profile — positive in every SG category except OTT — gives him a 21% top-20 number at +12721. Not enough firepower to win, but a sneaky each-way candidate. |
+12721 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T30
2023NA
Win+12721
Top 5+1957
Top 10+865
Recent Form
Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T31 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T17 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T49 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T12 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T26 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T26
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
10.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 29 |
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
USA - OWGR #79
VALUE
|
Zero rounds at this course and a T75-MC-MC stretch outside of his T4 at Zurich makes this a tough sell at +13233. The +0.41 SG OTT is real and the +0.008 course fit adjustment likes the profile in theory, but the -0.13 putting and lack of any Texas history means you're betting on raw ball-striking alone. Pass on the outright; the 10.3% top-10 is the only number worth playing. |
+13233 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+13233
Top 5+1974
Top 10+874
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T75 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): MC • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T4 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T55 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): 68
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
10.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 30 |
Kevin Roy
USA - OWGR #125
VALUE
|
Coming off a solo T3 at the Myrtle Beach Classic two weeks back, and that runner-up gear pairs with a T15 here in 2025 and the highest course history adjustment in this group at +0.019. The +0.25 putting is what travels week to week, but the -0.21 approach is a legitimate concern on a course that demands iron precision. At +13567 with a 10.2% top-10, he's a defensible place play but the win equity isn't there. |
+13567 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T15
2024NA
2023MC
Win+13567
Top 5+1947
Top 10+881
Recent Form
Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T3 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T32 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T30 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T65 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): 73 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T59
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
10.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 31 |
Thorbjorn Olesen
USA - OWGR #113
VALUE
|
The +0.50 SG Total is the highest mark in this entire batch of longshots, driven by +0.26 approach and +0.19 OTT — elite ball-striking numbers that the +13693 price completely ignores. T29 here in 2025 and T14 at Houston in March show the Texas swing has been productive. Neutral putter is the only thing keeping this from being a full-throated bet; for the price, he's the best outright dart on this board. |
+13693 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T29
2024MC
2023NA
Win+13693
Top 5+1923
Top 10+854
Recent Form
Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T49 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T14 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
10.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 32 |
William Mouw
USA - OWGR #129
VALUE
|
Six straight events without a top-20 and a missed cut here in 2025 is the story, and the +0.009 course fit adjustment can't overcome a -0.008 history adjustment that explicitly flags the venue as a poor match. The +0.22 OTT is fine but +0.05 approach won't cut it on a course that demands sharp irons. At +13725 with a 0.72% win number, there's no edge here — easy fade. |
+13725 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+13725
Top 5+1879
Top 10+842
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T70 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T26 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T55 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T44 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
10.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 33 |
Patrick Rodgers
USA - OWGR #76
VALUE
|
A T11 at THE PLAYERS in March is the high-water mark, but the profile since has been ugly — MC at the PGA, T65 in Miami, and another MC at Valero sandwiched in. The +0.19 putting number is the only positive signal, with approach sitting at -0.04 and a 0.71% model win rate. At +13985 with a T15 here in 2025, he's a credible top-20 dart (20.6% model probability), not a winner. |
+13985 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T15
2024NA
2023NA
Win+13985
Top 5+2017
Top 10+879
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T24 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T65 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T40 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T11 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
10.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 34 |
Austin Eckroat
USA - OWGR #166
VALUE
|
Runner-up at this event in 2023 is the headline, and the +0.029 course history adjustment is one of the better marks in this tier. The iron game backs it up — +0.35 SG Approach paired with a T6 at Zurich and a T10 at Valero in his last three starts shows the form is real. At +14393 with the short game (-0.15 around green) as the only red flag, he's a legitimate top-20 play (21.6%) and a sneaky outright at a course he's already nearly won on. |
+14393 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023T2
Win+14393
Top 5+1879
Top 10+841
Recent Form
Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T19 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T6 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T10 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T39 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T42
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
10.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 35 |
Beau Hossler
USA - OWGR #148
VALUE
|
A T3 at Myrtle Beach two weeks ago wakes up a profile that was otherwise napping — MC at Zurich, MC at Valspar, T52 and T65 in his two prior trips here. The short-game and putting combo (+0.27 ARG, +0.35 putting) is elite, but -0.22 approach in a Texas ball-striking week is a problem. At +14863 with a -0.018 course history adjustment, the price is fair but the course fit isn't. Pass on the outright, consider a top-20 sprinkle. |
+14863 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T65
2024T52
2023NA
Win+14863
Top 5+2013
Top 10+901
Recent Form
Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T3 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T49 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T37
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
10.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.00
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 36 |
Taylor Moore
USA - OWGR #152
LONGSHOT
|
Three straight missed cuts at this venue ('23, '24, '25) is a flashing red light no matter what the rest of the profile looks like. The +0.006 course fit adjustment from the model is doing its best to ignore that history, but bettors shouldn't. Recent form is mediocre (T17, T20, T39, MC, MC) and -0.20 SG Approach in a field this deep is a tough sell. At +15245, this is a hard fade for outrights — he hasn't played the weekend here in three tries. |
+15245 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023MC
Win+15245
Top 5+2107
Top 10+962
Recent Form
Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T17 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T20 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T39 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T50 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T44
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
9.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 37 |
Tony Finau
USA - OWGR #120
LONGSHOT
|
The name still carries weight but the underlying numbers don't — -0.31 SG Off-the-Tee is brutal for a player whose entire identity used to be elite ball-striking, and the recent log (MC, 82, T49, T39) is the worst stretch of his career. Zero course history here makes the +15525 price even harder to stomach. The 0.64% model win rate and 8.4% top-10 number are among the lowest in this batch. Full fade until something changes. |
+15525 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+15525
Top 5+2452
Top 10+1084
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T31 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 82 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T49 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T39 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T18 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T70
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History—
| |||
| 38 |
Zecheng Dou
USA - OWGR #180
LONGSHOT
|
A T5 at this event in 2023 is buried under an MC in 2024 and a messy recent stretch (three MCs in his last seven, including Valero and THE PLAYERS). The model still gives him the largest course history adjustment in this group at +0.038, and +0.17 SG Approach keeps him in the conversation. T13 at Myrtle Beach is a small green shoot. At +16520, a top-20 ticket (18.6%) makes more sense than chasing the outright. |
+16520 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023T5
Win+16520
Top 5+2322
Top 10+1003
Recent Form
Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T13 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T57
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
9.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 39 |
John Parry
USA - OWGR #86
LONGSHOT
|
Quietly stacking results — T8 in Puerto Rico, T14 at Valero, T13 at Zurich, T31 at Myrtle Beach, T70 at the PGA — and the +0.30 SG Approach number is one of the best in this entire longshot tier. The 62.9% make-cut probability is also top-of-batch. Zero course history is the catch, and the -0.09 putter caps the ceiling. At +16707 with a 9.7% top-10 number, he's a sharp top-20 play with outright upside if the flatstick warms up. |
+16707 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+16707
Top 5+2188
Top 10+933
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T70 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T31 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T13 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T14 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T48 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T55 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
9.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.00
Course History—
| |||
| 40 |
Chris Kirk
USA - OWGR #96
LONGSHOT
|
+0.32 SG Approach paired with a -0.26 putter is one of the most frustrating splits in the field — the irons are tournament-winning quality, the flatstick won't let it happen. Recent form is forgettable (T44 at the PGA is the best result in his last six) and there's no course history to lean on. At +17043, the model's 0.58% win number is honest. Skip the outright; if you must play him, a top-20 at 19.6% is the only defensible angle. |
+17043 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+17043
Top 5+2231
Top 10+955
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T36 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T51 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T27 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T47
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
9.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History—
| |||
| 41 |
Steven Fisk
USA - OWGR #135
LONGSHOT
|
A T12 at Hilton Head in April is the lone bright spot in a profile that otherwise screams average — 0.12 SG Total, -0.06 Approach, and a missed cut at the PGA last week. The +17043 price reflects a 0.58% model win number, which is honestly generous for a #135 OWGR player with zero course history here. No reason to chase. This is a fade at any meaningful unit size. |
+17043 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+17043
Top 5+2408
Top 10+1061
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T12 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T54 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T48 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T62
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 42 |
Kevin Yu
USA - OWGR #114
LONGSHOT
|
A solo 7th at the Valero Texas Open in April is the anchor here, and the +0.17 SG Off-the-Tee number plays well in Texas wind. Course history is mixed (T29 in '25, MC in '24), and the -0.09 putter is the obvious leak in a profile that's otherwise serviceable. At +18027 with an 8.4% top-10 number, the place-market value is more interesting than the outright. Small top-20 sprinkle, skip the win bet. |
+18027 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T29
2024MC
2023NA
Win+18027
Top 5+2543
Top 10+1092
Recent Form
Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T53 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): 7 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T30 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 43 |
Johnny Keefer
USA - OWGR #77
LONGSHOT
|
The +0.39 SG Off-the-Tee is legitimately elite for a longshot, and the T3 at Houston in March proves the ceiling exists. But the short game is a disaster — -0.24 around the green, -0.26 putting — and he's missed four cuts in his last nine including the Masters and PLAYERS. At +19069 he's a defensible top-20 dart given the OWGR #77, but the win equity isn't there with that putter. |
+19069 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+19069
Top 5+2587
Top 10+1150
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): 79 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T31 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T69 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T3 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
8.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 44 |
Preston Stout
USA - OWGR #501
LONGSHOT
|
No SG data, no course history, OWGR #501, and a 0.51% model win number that's essentially a coin flip with a brick attached. The +19637 price is what it is — a sponsor's exemption lottery ticket. Hard to construct any real win path here without baseline strokes-gained inputs, and the 17.1% top-20 projection is more model noise than signal. Pass. |
+19637 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+19637
Top 5+2535
Top 10+1116
Recent Form
—
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
8.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 45 |
Chandler Blanchet
USA - OWGR #103
LONGSHOT
|
Runner-up at the Puerto Rico Open in March is the headline finish, and the iron play backs it up — +0.15 SG Approach, +0.29 off the tee. The wreck is the short game (-0.30 around the green) and the inconsistency since: MC at Zurich, 72nd at Miami, T44 at the PGA. At +20733 with a 7.6% top-10, he's a tournament-only GPP option, not a serious outright. Place bets only. |
+20733 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+20733
Top 5+2809
Top 10+1207
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T52 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): 72 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T18 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): 2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.00
Course History—
| |||
| 46 |
Zach Bauchou
USA - OWGR #176
LONGSHOT
|
Quietly the most balanced longshot on this list — +0.16 SG Approach, neutral putting, and a T13 at Zurich plus T24 at Myrtle Beach in his last three. The OWGR #176 keeps the price honest at +21561, but a 16% top-20 number is real value for a guy with no obvious leak. Not a win bet, but a defensible top-20 sprinkle if you're building a wide ticket. |
+21561 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+21561
Top 5+2952
Top 10+1248
Recent Form
Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T24 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T13 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T28 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T50 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T21
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 47 |
Jhonattan Vegas
USA - OWGR #122
LONGSHOT
|
T13 here in 2025 is the one course-history data point worth caring about, and the +0.025 course history adjustment is the largest in this group. But the -0.30 putter and -0.17 SG Total are ugly, and he hasn't finished better than T44 since Houston in March. At +21561 the course fit creates a thin top-20 case, but the recent form actively argues against it. Lean fade. |
+21561 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T13
2024MC
2023NA
Win+21561
Top 5+2937
Top 10+1268
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T52 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T60 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T74 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T14 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 48 |
Mackenzie Hughes
USA - OWGR #142
LONGSHOT
|
The short game and putter are the entire pitch — +0.25 around the green, +0.26 putting — but the -0.33 off the tee and -0.14 approach mean he's giving back everything tee-to-green. T14 here in 2023 is the best history finish, undercut by a missed cut in 2025 and four MCs in his last six starts. At +21959 with a profile this lopsided, the win number is fiction. Hard pass. |
+21959 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T41
2023T14
Win+21959
Top 5+2655
Top 10+1131
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T52 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T55 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
8.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.00
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 49 |
Vince Whaley
USA - OWGR #144
LONGSHOT
|
Back-to-back missed cuts at Myrtle Beach and Zurich are the kind of form line that should scare you off a +22372 ticket, but the course history tells a different story — T15 here in 2025 anchors a +0.043 course history adjustment that's among the better marks in this tier. The +0.49 SG Putting is real, though the -0.36 off the tee and -0.21 approach are a brutal combination at any venue. Pass on the outright, consider a small top-20 sprinkle at 17.6% implied. |
+22372 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T15
2024T41
2023T79
Win+22372
Top 5+2674
Top 10+1122
Recent Form
Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): MC • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T54 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T68 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T26
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
8.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.00
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 50 |
Ben Kohles
USA - OWGR #286
LONGSHOT
|
Runner-up at this event in 2024 is the entire reason to look at him, and a T13 at Zurich three weeks ago suggests the form is trending the right way. The +0.30 SG Approach is the best number in this batch, but the -0.38 putting completely neutralizes it and explains why the model gives him just 0.43% to win. The course history adjustment of +0.038 isn't enough to chase +23429 — but the +3256 top-5 has some merit given the 2024 finish. |
+23429 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T52
20242
2023NA
Win+23429
Top 5+3256
Top 10+1347
Recent Form
Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T31 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T13 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T42
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
6.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.00
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 51 |
Seamus Power
USA - OWGR #189
LONGSHOT
|
Missing two of his last three cuts at TPC Craig Ranch (2024 and 2025) is a real red flag for a guy priced at +23615, and the model agrees — 0.42% win equity is essentially dead money. The T10 at Zurich was a partner-format result, so don't read too much into it. With no SG Total on record and a -0.13 approach number, there's nothing in the underlying data that justifies a bet at any number on the board here. |
+23615 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023T19
Win+23615
Top 5+2848
Top 10+1192
Recent Form
Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T60 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T10 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T30 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T70 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
7.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.00
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 52 |
Lee Hodges
USA - OWGR #150
LONGSHOT
|
The ball-striking profile is the sell — +0.17 off the tee and +0.20 approach is a legitimate tee-to-green base for a longshot, and the T18 at Valspar shows he can post on a tougher setup. The problem is everything around the hole: -0.12 short game, -0.18 putting, and a missed cut here in 2025. At +24191 with a 7.3% top-10 number, the 1122-priced top-10 is the only side that makes any sense. |
+24191 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+24191
Top 5+2925
Top 10+1277
Recent Form
Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T67 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T24 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T65 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T18 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T59
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
7.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 53 |
Chad Ramey
USA - OWGR #160
LONGSHOT
|
Five made cuts in his last seven starts is steady but uninspiring, and none of those results cracked the top 25. The -0.22 approach number is a killer at a course where iron play tends to separate, and the +0.28 putting isn't enough to drag the rest of the bag along. Two missed cuts here in his last two tries plus a -0.025 course history adjustment is the full picture — fade at +24290 and don't look back. |
+24290 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023T50
Win+24290
Top 5+3362
Top 10+1393
Recent Form
Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): MC • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T32 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T39 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T64 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T27 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
6.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.00
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 54 |
Garrick Higgo
USA - OWGR #94
LONGSHOT
|
Six missed cuts in his last eight starts including the PGA Championship is the worst recent form on this entire page, and the -0.31 SG Total backs up exactly what your eyes are telling you. The -0.26 approach is the wrong skill to be losing strokes in at a birdie-fest, and OWGR #94 is doing a lot of heavy lifting on his +25874 price. The model's 5.7% top-10 is the lowest in this batch for a reason. Hard pass. |
+25874 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023T30
Win+25874
Top 5+3851
Top 10+1656
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T67 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T52 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T69 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
5.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 55 |
Mark Hubbard
USA - OWGR #116
LONGSHOT
|
Runner-up at Myrtle Beach two weeks ago is the kind of recent finish that demands attention, especially paired with a T5 here in 2025 and a +0.04 course history adjustment. The -0.18 off the tee is a concern, but the +0.07 approach plays up at TPC Craig Ranch and the form-plus-history combo is genuinely interesting at +26567. The 1504-priced top-10 is where the real value sits — back-to-back live finishes from a guy the market is sleeping on. |
+26567 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T5
2024T52
2023NA
Win+26567
Top 5+3490
Top 10+1504
Recent Form
Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): 2 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T65 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T42
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
6.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.04
| |||
Daily Matchups coming soon.