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// BETTING PREVIEW - JULY 2-5
John Deere Classic
July 2-5, 2026 | Silvis, Illinois
⛅ Tournament Weather Forecast
Expect sunny skies with highs in the 94F range and moderate winds around 15 mph throughout the week. No rain is forecast, making for good scoring opportunities.
🔒 Crew picks drop Wednesday night
Ben Griffin leads the field in both SG Total (+1.47) and SG Putting (+0.51), making him the model's top pick at 5.3% win probability against +1776 odds — a massive edge. Chris Gotterup ranks second in SG Total (+1.33) and third in SG Approach (+0.47), offering a similarly compelling 5.0% model win probability at +1917. TPC Deere Run rewards precision iron play and putting on its bentgrass greens, and the combination of elite ball-striking and flatstick prowess makes Griffin and Gotterup the clear top-tier plays. Further down the board, Jackson Koivun profiles as an intriguing rising talent at +3038, carrying a 3.2% model win probability with near-neutral course fit and a T11 finish here earlier this year.
Griffin Tops Every Key Metric
Ben Griffin ranks #1 in SG Total (+1.47) and #1 in SG Putting (+0.51) across the entire 140-player field. His T5 finish at TPC Deere Run in 2024 confirms course compatibility, and the model pegs him at 5.3% to win — roughly triple the implied probability of his +1776 odds.
Ben Griffin
Gotterup's Iron Play Demands Attention
Chris Gotterup ranks #2 in SG Total (+1.33) and #3 in SG Approach (+0.47), pairing elite ball-striking with strong overall form. At +1917 with a 5.0% model win probability, he offers nearly 5 points of edge over implied odds and improved on his 2024 missed cut with a T21 at this event in 2025.
Chris Gotterup
Bradley Brings Elite Approach Game
Keegan Bradley ranks #4 in SG Approach (+0.45) and #3 in SG Total (+1.10), giving him one of the most complete profiles in the field. At +2760 with a 3.5% model win probability, he's a strong value play in a week without many marquee names atop the field.
Keegan Bradley
Koivun's Neutral Fit, Big Upside
Jackson Koivun has the most neutral course fit in the top 10 favorites at -0.002 and posted a T11 here earlier this year. At +3038 with a 3.2% model win probability, the young talent offers legitimate win equity at mid-range odds.
Jackson Koivun
Poston's Course Fit Tops Contenders
J.T. Poston owns the best course fit adjustment (+0.040) among the top 10 favorites and finished T6 at TPC Deere Run in 2023. At +4001 with a 2.4% model win probability, his style — steady off the tee with solid putting — historically suits this venue well.
J.T. Poston
Spieth's Talent at a Discount
Jordan Spieth sits at +3617 with a 2.7% model win probability and ranks #6 in SG Total (+0.86). His pedigree far exceeds most of this field, and a T26 here in 2024 suggests baseline comfort at TPC Deere Run. If his putter gets warm, he's dangerous.
Jordan Spieth
Tom Kim Is the Longshot Sleeper
Tom Kim ranks #5 in SG Approach (+0.45) and carries a +0.75 SG Total at +5081 odds, with a model-projected 16.7% top-10 probability — the highest among all longshots. He's a premier talent in a weaker field who could easily contend.
Tom Kim
Eric Cole's Putter Could Ignite
Eric Cole ranks #3 in SG Putting (+0.49) and carries a strong +0.77 SG Total at +5345 odds. The model gives him a 16.2% top-10 probability, making him a high-floor play for top-10 and top-20 wagers at TPC Deere Run.
Eric Cole
Bridgeman's Trending Form Is Real
Jacob Bridgeman ranks #5 in SG Total (+0.91) and posted a T5 at this event in 2025, confirming strong course compatibility at TPC Deere Run. At +3801 with a 2.6% model win probability, he's a legitimate contender flying under the radar.
Jacob Bridgeman
Zach Johnson: History Without the Game
Zach Johnson owns the best course history adjustment in the field at +0.108 strokes, but at +24693 odds his current form simply doesn't support a win play. Nostalgia at TPC Deere Run aside, there's no model-backed edge here — avoid for outright wagers.
Zach Johnson
Complete Betting Board
| # | Player | Why They Could Win | Win Odds GolfData API |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ben Griffin
USA - OWGR #16
CONTENDER
|
A solo 3rd at the Miami Championship and a T3 at Colonial headline a run that's pushed him to OWGR #16, and the T5 here in 2024 confirms the course fit despite a negative fit adjustment (-0.068). The full-bag SG profile is genuinely elite — +1.47 total with positive marks in every category, including +0.51 putting that travels well to bentgrass. At +1776 with a 5.33% model win number, he's the most complete contender on the board and arguably underpriced behind the bigger names. |
+1776 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T5
2023T51
Win+1776
Top 5+424
Top 10+221
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T10 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T17 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T3 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T14 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T63 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): 3 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T10 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T33
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
5.3%
Top 10 Probability
31.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 2 |
Chris Gotterup
USA - OWGR #14
CONTENDER
|
The driver-iron combo (+0.52 OTT, +0.47 approach) is the loudest engine in this field, and it's translated to a T10 at the PGA Championship and T14 at the Truist in the recent stretch. The catch: a missed cut here in 2024 and a -0.133 course fit adjustment that's the worst among the top contenders. At +1917 with a 4.96% model win, you're paying contender prices for a player whose tee-to-green game outclasses the venue's bentgrass demands — pass on the outright, consider top-10 at +260. |
+1917 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T21
2024MC
2023NA
Win+1917
Top 5+480
Top 10+260
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T27 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T10 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T14 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
5.0%
Top 10 Probability
27.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.13
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 3 |
Keith Mitchell
USA - OWGR #68
CONTENDER
|
A T4 at the U.S. Open and a solo 5th at the Byron Nelson are the kind of stretch that should move a player's number more than this — Mitchell sits at +2718 despite +0.59 SG OTT and three straight made cuts here (T44, T18, T42). The putter is the swing factor at +0.04, but with OWGR #68 status masking genuine ball-striking form, the price has real value. Live outright play at this number. |
+2718 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T44
2024T18
2023T42
Win+2718
Top 5+621
Top 10+323
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T22 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T4 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T29 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 5 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T65 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T55 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T30
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.5%
Top 10 Probability
23.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 4 |
Keegan Bradley
USA - OWGR #38
CONTENDER
|
Zero prior starts at TPC Deere Run is the headline, and it shows up in the -0.012 course history adjustment and -0.047 fit number. Still, the underlying profile is sharp — +0.45 SG approach, +0.31 around the green, and a T14 at the Travelers fronting a clean run of made cuts at premium events. At +2760 with a 3.5% model win, he's priced as a wildcard rather than a contender, which feels about right. Top-20 at shorter prices is the smarter angle than the outright. |
+2760 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+2760
Top 5+637
Top 10+331
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T32 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T19 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T19 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T49 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T12 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T21
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.5%
Top 10 Probability
23.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 5 |
Jackson Koivun
USA - OWGR #218
CONTENDER
|
The T11 debut here in 2025 is the entire case, because the SG data is literally blank — amateur status means no tour baselines, and the only 2026 data point is a T23 at the U.S. Open. The model still grinds out a 3.19% win number and 21.9% top-10 based on course fit and that one prior result. At +3038 you're betting on a profile with almost no information, which is either brilliant or reckless. Sprinkle for top-20 (+356 territory equivalent), skip the outright. |
+3038 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T11
2024NA
2023NA
Win+3038
Top 5+685
Top 10+356
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.2%
Top 10 Probability
21.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.00
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 6 |
Jordan Spieth
USA - OWGR #53
CONTENDER
|
The name is doing the heavy lifting on the +3617 price, but the actual ball-striking has quietly stabilized — +0.32 approach, +0.30 OTT, and a T12 at the Masters anchoring a recent run that includes a T18 at the PGA Championship. The +0.07 putting is the problem on bentgrass greens where he used to print money, and the T26 in 2024 is the only Deere Run data point. Reasonable top-20 play at 34.8% model probability, but the outright price assumes a vintage week that hasn't shown up in 18 months. |
+3617 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T26
2023NA
Win+3617
Top 5+787
Top 10+388
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T66 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T56 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T18 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T52 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T18 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.7%
Top 10 Probability
20.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 7 |
Jacob Bridgeman
USA - OWGR #27
CONTENDER
|
The T5 here in 2025 is the hook, and the +0.36 putting number suggests the flat stick can carry him on a course that rewards it. Problem: the rest of the profile is middling for a contender — +0.29 approach, +0.19 OTT, and recent form headlined by a T11 at the RBC Canadian Open but otherwise full of T30s and T40s. At +3801 with a 2.56% model win, the price reflects reality. Top-20 at 34.3% is the playable angle. |
+3801 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T5
2024MC
2023NA
Win+3801
Top 5+800
Top 10+398
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T47 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T39 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T11 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T34 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T52 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T65 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.6%
Top 10 Probability
20.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 8 |
J.T. Poston
USA - OWGR #32
CONTENDER
|
Won the Memorial Tournament in his recent stretch and backed it up with a T4 at the U.S. Open — that's a Signature win plus a major top-5, and he's sitting at +4001. The +0.040 course fit adjustment is the best among this group, the T6 here in 2023 confirms it, and a 19.3% top-10 model number at this price is one of the cleanest values on the entire board. The missed cut here in 2025 is the only blemish keeping the number this high. Bet the outright. |
+4001 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T30
2023T6
Win+4001
Top 5+836
Top 10+418
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 69 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T4 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 1 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T24 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T49 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T60
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.4%
Top 10 Probability
19.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+-0.00
| |||
| 9 |
Andrew Novak
USA - OWGR #65
CONTENDER
|
A T7 at TPC Deere Run in 2024 paired with a +0.43 SG Approach number is the real foundation here, not the +4421 win price. The recent form has been choppy — two missed cuts in the last three majors — but the iron game travels and the model gives him a 17.3% top-10 number that lines up with the +479 top-10 price. Solid value play in the outright top-10 market, less so outright. |
+4421 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T7
2023T42
Win+4421
Top 5+944
Top 10+479
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T54 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T24 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T65 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T10 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.2%
Top 10 Probability
17.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 10 |
Ryo Hisatsune
USA - OWGR #64
CONTENDER
|
Two starts here, two cuts made, but T60 and T52 don't scream course fit despite what the +0.042 course-fit adjustment suggests. The tee-to-green profile is balanced (+0.43 OTT, +0.41 approach) and the model loves it more than the market does — 2.16% win equity versus a +4533 implied price. The form is mediocre though, with four straight finishes outside the top 25, so the price is fair rather than a steal. |
+4533 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T60
2024T52
2023NA
Win+4533
Top 5+934
Top 10+471
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T38 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 52 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): 66 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T45 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T65 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T60
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.2%
Top 10 Probability
17.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 11 |
Rickie Fowler
USA - OWGR #42
CONTENDER
|
Runner-up at the Truist and a T9 in Miami before the major stretch went sideways — the ball-striking is there but the results have stalled with two MCs in his last three. At +4782 with a +0.15 putting number and a course profile that rewards exactly his short-game skill set, there's a clear price-to-product gap. Top-10 at +519 is the cleanest way in; the outright is a lottery ticket on name equity. |
+4782 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T18
2024NA
2023NA
Win+4782
Top 5+1019
Top 10+519
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T38 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T60 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T2 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T9 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.0%
Top 10 Probability
16.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 12 |
Michael Thorbjornsen
USA - OWGR #82
VALUE
|
T2 here in 2024 and T17 in 2023 — this is statistically one of his best courses on tour and the +0.053 course history adjustment confirms it. The +0.43 OTT number fits a venue where keeping the driver in play matters less than aggression, and the model's 28.9% top-20 number is generous at +5002. The recent MCs at the PGA and Byron Nelson are concerns, but the course history is loud enough to bet. |
+5002 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T21
2024T2
2023T17
Win+5002
Top 5+1030
Top 10+517
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T54 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): 16 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T53 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T13 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.0%
Top 10 Probability
16.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History+0.05
| |||
| 13 |
Tom Kim
USA - OWGR #66
VALUE
|
Solo 3rd at the U.S. Open is the headline and it's a real one — a player priced at +5081 who just contended at Oakmont is genuinely mispriced. The +0.45 approach and +0.21 around-green numbers are the field-best combo in this tier, even if the MC here in 2025 muddies the course-history case. Take the top-10 at +500 and stack it with placement markets; the outright is fine but the granular bets are where the edge lives. |
+5081 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+5081
Top 5+1019
Top 10+500
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): 3 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T15 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T54 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T54 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T6 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.9%
Top 10 Probability
16.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History+-0.00
| |||
| 14 |
Eric Cole
USA - OWGR #69
VALUE
|
Runner-up at Colonial and a T8 at Memorial in his last five starts — Cole is in the best form of anyone in this tier and the market hasn't caught up. The +0.49 putting and +0.34 around-green numbers are elite, though the -0.113 course-fit adjustment is the one red flag worth respecting. Still, at +5345 with a 16.2% top-10 model number, this is the sharpest longshot on the board. |
+5345 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T60
2024T7
2023T42
Win+5345
Top 5+1056
Top 10+516
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T38 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 8 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): 2 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T31 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T6 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
16.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.11
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 15 |
Pierceson Coody
USA - OWGR #59
VALUE
|
The +0.50 SG OTT number is field-elite and exactly what you want on a course where length opens up scoring windows, but the MC here in 2025 is a problem the +5544 price doesn't fully discount. Recent form is uneven — a T23 at the U.S. Open is encouraging, the Memorial MC is not. The model's 1.77% win number basically matches the implied price, so there's no real edge; pass on outright, dabble on top-20 at best. |
+5544 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T30
2023NA
Win+5544
Top 5+1132
Top 10+555
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T22 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T24 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
15.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 16 |
Doug Ghim
USA - OWGR #174
VALUE
|
Three cuts made in three Deere Run starts (T26, T34, T31) is the kind of quiet course history that gets ignored at +5620, and the +0.059 course-fit adjustment is the best in this group. The +0.49 OTT and +0.33 approach numbers back up the model's 29.2% top-20 projection, which is a real number at this price. OWGR #174 is a deterrent for casuals, which is exactly why this is a sneaky placement bet. |
+5620 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T31
2024T34
2023T26
Win+5620
Top 5+1087
Top 10+528
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T15 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T28 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T31 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T19 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
15.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 17 |
Michael Kim
USA - OWGR #48
VALUE
|
Three straight missed cuts at Deere Run (2023, 2024, 2025) is an ugly look for a guy priced at +5737, and the -0.073 course fit adjustment confirms the model isn't buying the bounce-back either. The +0.37 SG Putting and +0.27 Approach numbers are perfectly fine, and the T17 at Colonial shows the floor is steady, but a 1.71% model win number paired with that course history makes this a clean fade at the top of the board. |
+5737 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023MC
Win+5737
Top 5+1173
Top 10+564
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T49 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T17 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T48 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T18 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.7%
Top 10 Probability
15.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 18 |
Michael Brennan
USA - OWGR #60
VALUE
|
A T6 at the Charles Schwab Challenge is the headline here, and the +0.87 SG Off-the-Tee is genuinely field-elite for a player at +5829 making his Deere Run debut. The problem: -0.23 Around the Green and -0.16 Putting in a week where the winning score routinely hits -20 and short-game wizards thrive. Course-debut longshots with leaky putters rarely cash at this price — there's a top-20 path (25.6% model), but the win equity isn't there. |
+5829 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+5829
Top 5+1234
Top 10+611
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T6 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): 81 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.7%
Top 10 Probability
14.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 19 |
Sungjae Im
USA - OWGR #78
VALUE
|
The T12 here in 2024 is the only data point worth clinging to, because the 2025 missed cut and the -0.27 SG Approach number are both genuinely concerning for a player at +6041. Sungjae has flashed (T5 at the Truist, T9 at the Byron Nelson) but the iron play has cratered and that's the skill that matters most at Deere Run. Model gives him a 1.63% win shot and a -0.031 fit adjustment — pass. |
+6041 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T12
2023NA
Win+6041
Top 5+1188
Top 10+581
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T32 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T9 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T5 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T65 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 46
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
14.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 20 |
Mac Meissner
USA - OWGR #89
VALUE
|
Solo 3rd at the Charles Schwab Challenge and a T10 at Zurich headline a quietly excellent stretch, and the +0.73 SG Total is one of the better marks in this longshot tier. A T20 here in 2024 confirms the course works, and the balanced profile (+0.28 APP, +0.25 PUTT, +0.22 ARG) is exactly the well-rounded look Deere Run rewards. At +6079 with a 15.7% top-10 number, this is one of the more defensible dart throws on the board. |
+6079 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T20
2023NA
Win+6079
Top 5+1117
Top 10+538
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T44 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T46 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T3 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T31 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T9 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T10
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
15.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.06
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 21 |
Daniel Berger
USA - OWGR #47
VALUE
|
The +0.48 SG Approach is the second-best iron number in this group and the +0.056 course fit adjustment is one of the few positive marks on the page, but Berger has missed three of his last four cuts (Memorial, U.S. Open, Masters) and the short game is a mess at -0.11 ARG and -0.14 PUTT. At +6222 you're paying for a name and an iron stat while ignoring that the rest of the bag is broken. Hard pass until the form stabilizes. |
+6222 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023NA
Win+6222
Top 5+1254
Top 10+614
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T25 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T45 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
14.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History+-0.00
| |||
| 22 |
Max Greyserman
USA - OWGR #73
VALUE
|
Two missed cuts in his last three starts (Canadian Open, Charles Schwab) is a rough lead-in, and the -0.085 course fit adjustment is the worst in this batch. The T9 at the Byron Nelson and T14 at the PGA show the ceiling is real, but a +0.53 SG Total and a 13.0% top-10 number don't justify the +6773 price when the model is actively docking him for fit. There are better longshot swings on the board. |
+6773 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T26
2023NA
Win+6773
Top 5+1361
Top 10+671
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T9 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T14 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T31 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
13.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.09
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 23 |
Matt Wallace
USA - OWGR #70
VALUE
|
No prior starts at Deere Run and zero made cuts above T23 in his last six events — that's the honest read on a player priced at +6934. The +0.37 SG Approach is the one number that travels, but -0.022 fit and a Canadian Open missed cut in his most recent start make this a tough sell. A 1.42% model win number is the truth here; if you're firing darts, fire them elsewhere. |
+6934 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+6934
Top 5+1278
Top 10+620
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T30 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T55
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
13.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 24 |
Tony Finau
USA - OWGR #113
VALUE
|
OWGR #113 is where Finau lives now, and the -0.095 course fit adjustment is the worst mark in this entire tier. There's a T6 at the Byron Nelson buried in the recent form to dream on, but the +0.0 SG Putting and a Deere Run debut at age 36 doesn't scream contender — it screams name recognition. At +7457 with a 1.32% model win shot, you're paying for the brand. Fade. |
+7457 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+7457
Top 5+1423
Top 10+684
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T55 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T40 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T29 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T6 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T31 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 82
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
12.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.10
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 25 |
Rico Hoey
USA - OWGR #92
VALUE
|
A T11 at Deere Run in 2025 backed up by a T26 in 2024 makes him one of the few in this tier with actual two-year traction here. The +0.5 SG off the tee fits a course where you can be aggressive, and the +0.046 course fit adj quietly confirms it. At +7476 with a 12.4% top-10 number, he's a defensible top-20 dart even if the -0.17 putting keeps the win equity capped at 1.32%. |
+7476 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T11
2024T26
2023NA
Win+7476
Top 5+1469
Top 10+710
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T17 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T60 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T53 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T26
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
12.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 26 |
Sudarshan Yellamaraju
USA - OWGR #99
VALUE
|
Coming off a T8 at the RBC Canadian Open, which is the best result in this entire longshot batch and the reason his +7879 is suddenly interesting. No prior starts at Deere Run is the obvious caveat, and the -0.013 fit adjustment plus three missed cuts in his last six (PGA, Schwab, U.S. Open) tells you the form is jagged. A 12.2% top-10 number on a player with zero course reps is a fair price, not a great one — top-20 only. |
+7879 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+7879
Top 5+1513
Top 10+721
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T8 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T40 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T19 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 34 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T52
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
12.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 27 |
Johnny Keefer
USA - OWGR #77
VALUE
|
The ball-striking profile is the sell here: +0.6 SG off the tee paired with +0.38 approach is a legitimate tee-to-green stack for a +8086 longshot. A T9 at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson proves the upside exists, but -0.27 around the green and -0.3 putting are the two skills you actually need at Deere Run. No course history and a 1.22% model win number — fade outright, consider top-20 only. |
+8086 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+8086
Top 5+1579
Top 10+754
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T39 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T51 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T9 • PGA Championship (May 2026): 79 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T31 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T69 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
11.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 28 |
Davis Thompson
USA - OWGR #148
VALUE
|
He won this event in 2024 and added a T18 in 2025 and a T31 in 2023, which is the kind of three-year resume that should not be priced at +8086. The catch is the form — OWGR has slid to #148 and the U.S. Open MC continued a choppy stretch with only a T6 at Zurich to point to. Course history adj of +0.037 is real, and a 12.6% top-10 number on a former champion is genuine top-10 value even if the outright is a stretch. |
+8086 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T18
20241
2023T31
Win+8086
Top 5+1455
Top 10+691
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T45 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T13 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
12.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 29 |
Max McGreevy
USA - OWGR #94
VALUE
|
The +0.089 course fit adjustment is one of the strongest marks in this tier, and the +0.31 SG Approach backs up the idea that the iron play travels. Problem is Deere Run hasn't actually shown it — missed cuts in both prior starts here (2025, 2023) and four MCs in his last seven including the Byron Nelson and PGA. At +8210 with a 65.3% make-cut number, this is a course-fit model bet, not a form bet, and the history says be careful. |
+8210 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023MC
Win+8210
Top 5+1497
Top 10+704
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T32 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T51 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): MC • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T32
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
12.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.09
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 30 |
Ben Kohles
USA - OWGR #169
VALUE
|
Best iron number in the group at +0.52 SG Approach, and the +0.164 course fit adjustment is the largest positive mark on this entire slate. Recent form is quietly trending — T23 at the U.S. Open, T29 at the Canadian Open, T13 at Zurich — even if prior Deere Run trips (T44, T52) were forgettable. The -0.35 putting is the ceiling-cap, but at +8423 with the best fit number in the field, he's a legitimate top-20 play. |
+8423 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T44
2024T52
2023NA
Win+8423
Top 5+1516
Top 10+721
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T29 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T31 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
12.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.16
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 31 |
Denny McCarthy
USA - OWGR #102
VALUE
|
Three straight top-11s at Deere Run (T11, T7, T6 from 2025 back to 2023) is the kind of course-specific resume that almost never shows up at +8896. The +0.5 SG Putting is elite and pairs perfectly with a venue that rewards the flatstick, even with the -0.31 off the tee weighing on the profile. The -0.051 fit number is the only knock, but a 12.2% top-10 with this course track record is a clear top-10 overlay. |
+8896 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T11
2024T7
2023T6
Win+8896
Top 5+1570
Top 10+719
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T60 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T34 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T48 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T65
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
12.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 32 |
Taylor Pendrith
USA - OWGR #93
VALUE
|
No prior starts at Deere Run and a -0.044 course fit adjustment is a rough combination for a +8991 price that implies you should care. Recent form is uninspired — solo 61st at Travelers, T29 in Canada, and nothing better than T29 across his last nine starts. The +0.37 SG off the tee is fine but the putter (-0.06) and chipping (0.0) don't move the needle. Pass outright; even the 11.1% top-10 feels generous. |
+8991 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+8991
Top 5+1707
Top 10+800
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 61 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T29 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T43 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T47 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T71
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
11.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History—
| |||
| 33 |
Jackson Suber
USA - OWGR #126
VALUE
|
A solo 4th at the Byron Nelson and a T4 at the RBC Canadian Open are two genuine top-5s on the resume in the last two months, and that's the entire case at +9159. The underlying SG profile is modest (+0.3 total, +0.2 approach) and the Deere debut was a missed cut in 2025, so the model's 1.08% win number feels about right. Live for a top-20 ticket at +20.8% implied, but the outright price is asking you to pay for two hot weeks. |
+9159 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9159
Top 5+1709
Top 10+827
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T4 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T67 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 4 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T19 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
10.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 34 |
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
USA - OWGR #100
VALUE
|
Short-game and putter is the entire profile here — +0.26 around the green and +0.29 with the putter are both elite marks, and Deere Run historically rewards exactly that combo (+0.031 course fit). The problem is he's 0-for-2 at the event with two missed cuts and the driver remains a liability at -0.31 SG OTT. At +9202 with a 1.07% model win, this is a top-20 play (23.3%) at best, not an outright. |
+9202 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023MC
Win+9202
Top 5+1649
Top 10+757
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T54 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T32 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T6 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T17
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
11.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 35 |
Max Homa
USA - OWGR #112
VALUE
|
A T5 at this event in 2025 is the only meaningful course data point, and it came during a stretch where Homa was significantly better than he is now. The +0.27 putting is keeping the overall SG number afloat at +0.37 because the irons (-0.02) have completely disappeared, and a T9 at the Masters is the lone top-10 in his last seven starts. At +9394, you're paying for the name and one good week here — fade. |
+9394 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T5
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9394
Top 5+1781
Top 10+832
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T20 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T22 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T52 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T69 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T9
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
10.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 36 |
Blades Brown
USA - OWGR #106
VALUE
|
Back-to-back top-15s at the Byron Nelson (T14) and Myrtle Beach (T9) is a real momentum angle for a 19-year-old at +9917, and Deere Run is exactly the type of birdie-fest where young, fearless players have historically outkicked their odds. The catch: no current SG data to verify the underlying skill, a missed cut in his only prior Deere start, and the model still has him at just 1.0% to win. Top-20 at 20.3% implied is the smarter ticket. |
+9917 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023MC
Win+9917
Top 5+1861
Top 10+872
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T14 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T9 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T26
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
10.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 37 |
Aldrich Potgieter
USA - OWGR #74
VALUE
|
The -0.108 course fit adjustment is one of the worst marks in this entire field, which makes sense — he's a bomber (+0.52 SG OTT) at a course that neutralizes distance and rewards wedges and putting (-0.21 around the green). A T8 at the RBC Canadian Open shows the talent is real, and the OWGR #74 is legit, but the fit is genuinely bad here. At +10018, this is a pass; save him for a bigger, longer venue. |
+10018 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025WD
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10018
Top 5+1881
Top 10+906
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T8 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T48 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T14 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
9.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.11
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 38 |
Taylor Moore
USA - OWGR #138
VALUE
|
Three Deere starts, two missed cuts and a T33 — that's the course resume you're betting on at +10889, and it's not encouraging. The -0.08 SG approach is the red flag at a venue that demands wedge precision, and the -0.085 course fit adjustment confirms it. Recent form is mediocre too (T40-T60-T14 in his last three). The model's 0.91% win number is generous; this is a clean fade. |
+10889 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T33
2024MC
2023MC
Win+10889
Top 5+2001
Top 10+924
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T40 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T60 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T14 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T17 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T20
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
9.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.09
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 39 |
Austin Smotherman
USA - OWGR #101
VALUE
|
The +0.113 course fit adjustment is one of the largest positive marks anywhere in this tier, driven by elite ball-striking (+0.35 OTT, +0.34 approach) at a course that rewards it. The problem is everything around the green — -0.28 short game and -0.24 putting at a venue where the winner usually shoots 20-under. Two prior Deere starts produced a T51 and T61, which tracks. At +11052, the irons make him interesting for a top-20 dart (19.2%). |
+11052 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T61
2023T51
Win+11052
Top 5+1951
Top 10+923
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T42 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T19 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T60 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T74
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
9.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.11
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 40 |
William Mouw
USA - OWGR #129
VALUE
|
A T13 at this event in 2023 is the lone bright spot on a resume that's otherwise been forgettable in 2026 — three missed cuts in his last seven starts and a +0.2 SG total that doesn't move the needle. The +0.018 course history adjustment acknowledges that one good week, and the +0.29 SG OTT gives him a baseline. But at +11242 with a 0.88% model win and only one top-20 since April (a T20 at the RBC Canadian Open), there's no edge here. |
+11242 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023T13
Win+11242
Top 5+2026
Top 10+922
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T65 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T20 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T70 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T26 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T55
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
9.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 41 |
Emiliano Grillo
USA - OWGR #109
VALUE
|
Solo 2nd at this event in 2025 is a legitimate course-history hook, and the +0.03 history adjustment confirms TPC Deere Run fits his profile. The problem is everything since — T23 at the U.S. Open is his best finish in six starts, with two missed cuts mixed in, and his +0.14 SG Total barely registers. At +11461 with a 0.86% model win number, the price is fair but not generous given how flat the iron play (+0.10 SG Approach) has been. |
+11461 |
Tournament History & Odds
20252
2024NA
2023MC
Win+11461
Top 5+1998
Top 10+909
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T20 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T42 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T38 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
9.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.12
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 42 |
Kevin Yu
USA - OWGR #130
VALUE
|
Three straight made cuts at the Deere — T6 in 2023, T20 in 2024, T21 in 2025 — is the kind of repeatable course profile that should matter at a venue this specific. The underlying skills back it up too: +0.28 SG OTT and +0.25 SG Total rank him as a quietly solid ball-striker, and the model gives him a 60.2% cut probability. At +11781, he's a defensible small-stakes top-20 play (+475 implied via the 19.2% number) more than a win bet. |
+11781 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T21
2024T20
2023T6
Win+11781
Top 5+2102
Top 10+954
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T29 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T53 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
9.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 43 |
Haotong Li
USA - OWGR #95
VALUE
|
First trip to TPC Deere Run, and the underlying ball-striking is actually intriguing — +0.32 SG OTT and +0.24 SG Approach are both above-average marks in this field. The issue is everything from 100 yards in: -0.25 around the greens, -0.14 putting, and a recent form line that reads MC-MC-T35-MC-MC-T38 outside of the Masters. At +13661 with no course reference point and a short game that bleeds strokes on a course that demands birdie conversion, this is a pass. |
+13661 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+13661
Top 5+2409
Top 10+1118
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T60 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): MC • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T38
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 44 |
Steven Fisk
USA - OWGR #123
VALUE
|
T10 at Colonial and T12 at Harbour Town inside his last six starts shows he can hang on tight, positional tracks — exactly the Deere archetype. The catch: he missed the cut here in his only prior visit, the course-fit adjustment is slightly negative (-0.029), and his -0.11 SG Approach is the worst iron mark of anyone listed here. At +14018 you're betting on the putter (+0.15) carrying a flawed profile on a course where everyone makes putts. Hard pass. |
+14018 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14018
Top 5+2402
Top 10+1106
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T10 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T12
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 45 |
Zach Bauchou
USA - OWGR #161
VALUE
|
The +0.32 SG Total and +0.28 SG Approach are top-tier numbers for a longshot, and a T6 at the Byron Nelson plus a T13 at the Zurich say the form is real. No Deere history is the asterisk, but the +0.005 course-fit adjustment and a 59.3% model cut number suggest the skills travel. At +14051 with a 0.71% win probability that maps to roughly +14000 fair, this is one of the more defensible dart throws in this tier — particularly for top-20 (+1043) tickets. |
+14051 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14051
Top 5+2313
Top 10+1043
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T22 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T6 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T24 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 46 |
Andrew Putnam
USA - OWGR #88
VALUE
|
Short-game savant alert: +0.36 around the greens and +0.29 putting are elite marks, and the +0.101 course-fit adjustment is one of the best in this entire field — TPC Deere Run rewards exactly his skill set. The red flag is the -0.50 SG OTT, which makes the margin razor-thin, and a WD here in 2025 plus a Canadian Open MC isn't ideal momentum. Still, at +14220 with a 63.2% cut probability (highest in this group), the top-10 number at +911 has actual value. |
+14220 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025WD
2024MC
2023NA
Win+14220
Top 5+2105
Top 10+911
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T65 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T17 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T55 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T18 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
9.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History-0.04
| |||
| 47 |
Beau Hossler
USA - OWGR #158
VALUE
|
Three straight made cuts at the Deere capped by a T11 in 2025 is a real course profile, and the T3 at Myrtle Beach proves the putter (+0.34 SG) can carry him on birdie-fest setups. But the ball-striking is a problem — -0.23 SG Approach and -0.17 off the tee, with a -0.064 course-fit adjustment that flags him as a poor stylistic match. At +14463 you're betting on a hot week from a guy whose irons say otherwise. Lean fade. |
+14463 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T11
2024T61
2023T26
Win+14463
Top 5+2520
Top 10+1157
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T45 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T3 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.06
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 48 |
Thorbjorn Olesen
USA - OWGR #134
VALUE
|
MC-T67-T62-MC is the recent form line, and that includes a missed cut here in 2025 — there's nothing in the profile that justifies action at +14570. The ball-striking numbers are fine on paper (+0.16 approach, +0.12 OTT), but the course-fit (-0.001) and history (-0.016) adjustments both grade neutral-to-negative, and the 8.3% top-10 probability is below the field average for this tier. Easy pass with better longshot options on the board. |
+14570 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T61
2023NA
Win+14570
Top 5+2460
Top 10+1099
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T67 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T62
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.00
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 49 |
Preston Stout
USA - OWGR #501
LONGSHOT
|
Back-to-back missed cuts at the U.S. Open and Byron Nelson is the entire sample we have to work with, and OWGR #501 tells you why this is a +16660 dart throw. The model gives him a 0.6% win share and a barely-above-coinflip 54.8% to play the weekend, with a tiny +0.029 course-fit nudge as the only real positive. Hard to see a win path here — pass and revisit when there's actual data. |
+16660 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+16660
Top 5+2817
Top 10+1269
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History—
| |||
| 50 |
Adrien Dumont De Chassart
USA - OWGR #168
LONGSHOT
|
Four missed cuts in his last six starts — Canadian Open, Schwab, Byron Nelson, and a survived T53 at the U.S. Open — is the worst possible profile to bring into a birdie-fest at +18193. The -0.106 course-fit adjustment is a red flag at a venue where you need to make everything, and his only Deere start was a forgettable T46 in 2024. Putting at +0.20 is the lone bright spot. Easy fade. |
+18193 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T46
2023NA
Win+18193
Top 5+2974
Top 10+1314
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T53 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T31 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T17
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.11
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 51 |
Keita Nakajima
USA - OWGR #139
LONGSHOT
|
Strong amateur pedigree and OWGR #139 don't translate cleanly to a first look at TPC Deere Run, and the underlying SG profile is mediocre across the board (+0.07 total, -0.18 around the greens). A T20 at the Canadian Open and T13 at Myrtle Beach show he can travel, but +0.21 putting is doing most of the heavy lifting. At +18592 with a 0.53% model win share, there are sharper longshots in this field. |
+18592 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+18592
Top 5+2983
Top 10+1300
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T20 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T28 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T13 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 52 |
Patrick Rodgers
USA - OWGR #85
LONGSHOT
|
OWGR #85 is the highest of this longshot cluster, but the Deere résumé is brutal: MC in 2025, T34 in 2024, MC in 2023, plus a -0.091 course-fit drag. Approach at -0.18 is the killer number at a venue where dart-throwing is mandatory, and recent form (T49 Memorial, T60 Schwab, T47 Byron Nelson) reinforces a player drifting sideways. The +18709 price reflects the name, not the game. Fade. |
+18709 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T34
2023MC
Win+18709
Top 5+3127
Top 10+1370
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): 71 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T49 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T60 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T47 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T24 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T65 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
6.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.09
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 53 |
Carson Young
USA - OWGR #175
LONGSHOT
|
Back-to-back T5 finishes at the Deere in 2024 and 2025 plus a win at the Miami Championship in April make him the most interesting name in this tier — the course history and recent ceiling don't match a +18768 price. The +0.08 course-fit adjustment and +0.03 history bump are both signals, and a T3 at the Masters earlier in the year proves the upside is real. SG numbers are ugly (-0.17 total) but he clearly knows how to score here. Sneaky outright at this number. |
+18768 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T5
2024T5
2023MC
Win+18768
Top 5+3128
Top 10+1386
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T47 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T46 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T67 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T10 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): 1 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 35 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
6.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.08
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 54 |
Seamus Power
USA - OWGR #198
LONGSHOT
|
Three straight made cuts at the Deere with a T13 in 2023 and a 17 in 2024 is exactly the boring-but-consistent profile that cashes top-20 tickets at +18948. The 57.8% make-cut number from the model is the highest of this group, and the +0.060 course history adjustment confirms the venue fits. Approach at -0.17 caps the ceiling, but the +0.12 around-the-green and +0.15 putting marks travel well to a birdie track. Better as a placement play than an outright. |
+18948 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T44
202417
2023T13
Win+18948
Top 5+2725
Top 10+1192
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T54 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T60 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T10
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.06
| |||
| 55 |
Lucas Glover
USA - OWGR #115
LONGSHOT
|
The +0.19 course-fit adjustment is the largest of anyone in this tier and the +0.16 SG Approach backs it up — Glover's iron play is genuinely a Deere fit, and the T5/T23/T6 history confirms it. The problem is the -0.56 putting number, which at a track that demands 25 birdies is essentially a death sentence. T5 here in 2025 says the ceiling exists at +19069, but the recent form (T66 Travelers, MC Canadian, T71 Schwab) says the floor just collapsed. Pass unless the putter wakes up. |
+19069 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T5
2024T23
2023T6
Win+19069
Top 5+3269
Top 10+1448
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T66 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T46 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T71 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T14 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
6.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.19
Course History+0.04
| |||
Daily Matchups coming soon.