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// BETTING PREVIEW - JUNE 4-7

The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday

June 4-7, 2026 | Dublin, Ohio
COSMOS Golf
Muirfield Village Golf Club
⛅ Tournament Weather Forecast Expect sunny skies with highs in the 80F range and light winds around 7 mph throughout the week. No rain is forecast, making for ideal scoring conditions.
Miller
Miller
  • Win:J.J. Spaun+4242
  • Top 5:Scottie Scheffler+116
  • Top 10:Alex Smalley+440
Kevin
Kevin
  • Win:Rory McIlroy+1704
  • Top 5:Si Woo Kim+457
  • Top 10:Matt Fitzpatrick+239
Andrew
Andrew
  • Win:Jordan Spieth+7317
  • Top 5:J.J. Spaun+760
  • Top 10:Chris Gotterup+534
Kcon
Kcon
  • Win:Scottie Scheffler+449
  • Top 5:Ben Griffin+843
  • Top 10:Alex Fitzpatrick+1079
Parbeh
Parbeh
  • Win:TBD-
  • Top 5:TBD-
  • Top 10:TBD-
JB
JB
  • Win:TBD-
  • Top 5:TBD-
  • Top 10:TBD-
Scottie Scheffler is the most dominant favorite we've modeled all season at the Memorial, with an 18.2% win probability, elite +2.92 SG Total, and back-to-back wins at Muirfield Village — yet his +449 odds still represent massive value. Below the chalk, Russell Henley (+2156) profiles as the week's best mid-tier play with the field's strongest course fit adjustment (+0.371) and a T5 finish here in 2025, while Si Woo Kim (+2405) combines the 7th-best SG Total (+1.71) with the second-highest course fit score (+0.293) and a 4th-place finish in 2023. This is a week to trust the data: ball-striking and course history matter enormously at Jack's Place, and the model identifies clear edges across the board.
Scheffler Is a Historic Lock
Scottie Scheffler's 18.2% model win probability represents the largest edge in the field — an 18-point gap over his implied odds probability. He ranks #1 in SG Total (+2.92), #1 in SG Approach (+1.14), #4 in SG Putting (+0.53), and has finishes of 1st, 1st, and 3rd in his last three Memorial starts. At +449, he's a must-play.
Scottie Scheffler
Henley's Course Fit Is Unmatched
Russell Henley carries the highest course fit adjustment in the field at +0.371 strokes, paired with a solid +1.58 SG Total and a T5 at the 2025 Memorial. Our model gives him a 4.4% win probability at +2156 odds — that's roughly 2x the value the books are offering, making him the best mid-range play of the week.
Russell Henley
Si Woo Kim: Sneaky Elite Profile
Si Woo Kim's +0.293 course fit score is second only to Henley's, and his 4.0% model win probability at +2405 offers substantial edge. He finished 4th here in 2023 and T15 in 2024, and his +1.71 SG Total ranks 7th in the entire field. He's a premier each-way play.
Si Woo Kim
Cameron Young's Ball-Striking Breakout
Cameron Young ranks 3rd in the field with a +2.09 SG Total and our model gives him a 4.3% win probability — the 5th-highest in the field. At +2201, the books are significantly undervaluing his elite tee-to-green game. The only concern is inconsistent course history (T25, T50, MC), but the raw talent is undeniable.
Cameron Young
Fitzpatrick Thrives at Muirfield Village
Matt Fitzpatrick has finishes of T31, T5, and T9 in his last three Memorial appearances, and his +0.206 course fit score ranks among the top tier. With the 5th-best SG Approach in the field (+0.76) and a +1.82 SG Total, he's a premium ball-striker at a premium ball-striker's course. The +2722 offers genuine upside.
Matt Fitzpatrick
Ben Griffin: Best Longshot in Field
At +5330, Ben Griffin leads all longshots with a 21.2% top-10 probability — the highest among players priced +5000 or longer. He ranks 2nd in the entire field in SG Putting (+0.61) and carries a +1.41 SG Total. For top-10 and top-20 markets, he's the week's sharpest longshot play.
Ben Griffin
Matsuyama Offers Hidden Value at 65/1
Hideki Matsuyama at +6530 carries an 18.0% top-10 probability and has historically performed well on Jack Nicklaus designs that demand precision iron play. His +1.12 SG Total is suppressed by recent inconsistency, but the upside at this price makes him a worthy flier in top-10 and top-20 markets.
Hideki Matsuyama
Schauffele Slightly Underpriced at 24/1
Xander Schauffele ranks 4th in SG Approach (+0.78) and 5th in SG Total (+1.95), yet his +2427 odds imply just a ~4% chance — right in line with our 4.0% model probability. He's fairly priced rather than a screaming value, but his T8 in 2024 and elite ball-striking keep him in the contender tier.
Xander Schauffele
Min Woo Lee at 54/1 Is Intriguing
Min Woo Lee posts a +1.59 SG Total — 9th in the field — at +5466 odds, with an 18.8% top-10 probability. His overall game profile ranks above several players priced 20-30% shorter. He's a strong each-way candidate in a field where mid-tier talent is being overlooked.
Min Woo Lee
Fade Matt Kuchar Despite Course History
Matt Kuchar tops the course history adjustment leaderboard at +0.187 strokes, but at +76823 odds, the books rightfully view his current game as non-competitive. Past results at Muirfield Village cannot overcome what is clearly a significant decline in overall strokes gained performance. Avoid despite the nostalgia.
Matt Kuchar

Complete Betting Board

👆 Click any player row for history, odds, recent form, strokes gained.
# Player Why They Could Win Win Odds GolfData API
1
Scottie Scheffler▼
USA - OWGR #1
FAVORITE
The defending champ won here in 2024 AND 2025, and he's the world #1 carrying a +2.92 SG Total into a course that rewards exactly his skill set. Five straight top-14s including a runner-up at the Masters and a solo 3rd at Byron Nelson two weeks ago — the form is absurd. The model gives him 18.2% to win and 62.6% top-10, and at +449 that's actually live value on a guy with back-to-back titles at Muirfield. Lock him in.
 +449
Tournament History & Odds
20251
20241
20233
Win+449
Top 5+116
Top 10-167
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 3 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T14 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): 2 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 2 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 2 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T22
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.86
🏌️ Approach+1.14
⛳ Around Green+0.39
🕳️ Putting+0.53
Model Predictions
Win Probability
18.2%
Top 10 Probability
62.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.26
Course History+0.07
2
Ludvig Aberg▼
SWE - OWGR #15
CONTENDER
Six consecutive top-20s including a T4 at the PGA and a T5 at THE PLAYERS — Aberg has quietly become one of the steadiest names in golf. The +0.82 SG Approach and +0.73 off the tee fit a course where ball-striking travels, and his T5 here in 2024 says the venue clicks. Model has him at 5.66% to win and 35.8% top-10, which makes +1667 and +179 top-10 the cleanest play on the board outside Scheffler.
 +1667
Tournament History & Odds
2025T16
2024T5
2023NA
Win+1667
Top 5+359
Top 10+179
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T17 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T4 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T8 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T4 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T21 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T5 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T5
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.73
🏌️ Approach+0.82
⛳ Around Green+0.20
🕳️ Putting+0.31
Model Predictions
Win Probability
5.7%
Top 10 Probability
35.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History+0.03
3
Rory McIlroy▼
NIR - OWGR #2
CONTENDER
Masters champion in April, T7 at the PGA, and the #2 player in the world — yet the course fit adjustment here is actually negative (-0.033) and his Muirfield history is pedestrian (T15, T7, no 2025 finish). The +2.20 SG Total is real, but Rory has never truly clicked here the way he does at other Nicklaus-adjacent venues. At +1704 he's priced as a co-second favorite without the course resume to back it. Pass at the win number, lean top-10 at +183 only.
 +1704
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T15
2023T7
Win+1704
Top 5+367
Top 10+183
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T7 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T19 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 1 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T46
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.94
🏌️ Approach+0.71
⛳ Around Green+0.20
🕳️ Putting+0.35
Model Predictions
Win Probability
5.5%
Top 10 Probability
35.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History+0.00
4
Russell Henley▼
USA - OWGR #5
CONTENDER
Coming off a win at Colonial last week and the course fit adjustment (+0.371) is the highest among this entire group. Add a T5 here in 2025 and a T3 at the Masters, and the profile is screaming. The +0.67 SG Approach and elite around-the-green number (+0.29) are exactly what Muirfield demands, and the model's 4.43% win equity is underpriced at +2156. He's the best non-Scheffler bet on the board.
 +2156
Tournament History & Odds
2025T5
2024T27
2023T16
Win+2156
Top 5+413
Top 10+196
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): 1 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T49 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T3 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.37
🏌️ Approach+0.67
⛳ Around Green+0.29
🕳️ Putting+0.24
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.4%
Top 10 Probability
33.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.37
Course History+0.06
5
Cameron Young▼
USA - OWGR #3
CONTENDER
Two wins already this season (THE PLAYERS and Miami) and OWGR #3, but the Muirfield history is genuinely ugly — T25, T50, MC — and the course history adjustment is -0.034. The recent form has also cooled: MC at Byron Nelson, T67 at Myrtle Beach, T26 at the PGA. The +2.09 SG Total profile says contender, but the venue and a flatlining trend say fade at +2201. Skip.
 +2201
Tournament History & Odds
2025T25
2024T50
2023MC
Win+2201
Top 5+440
Top 10+216
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T67 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T10 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): 1 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 35 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T3 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): 1
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.73
🏌️ Approach+0.69
⛳ Around Green+0.26
🕳️ Putting+0.41
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.3%
Top 10 Probability
31.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.09
Course History-0.03
6
Si Woo Kim▼
KOR - OWGR #19
CONTENDER
Runner-up at Byron Nelson two weeks ago and a 4th-place finish here in 2023 — Si Woo's Muirfield resume is sneaky strong. The +0.293 course fit adjustment is third-best in this group, and recent results include a 3rd at Hilton Head and a T4 at Miami. At +2405 with a 3.99% model win rate and 32.2% top-10, this is one of the better mid-range tickets in the field. Top-10 at +211 is the play.
 +2405
Tournament History & Odds
2025T31
2024T15
20234
Win+2405
Top 5+457
Top 10+211
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 2 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T65 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T4 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 3 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 47 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T10 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T7 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T50
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.63
🏌️ Approach+0.66
⛳ Around Green+0.30
🕳️ Putting+0.12
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.0%
Top 10 Probability
32.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.29
Course History+0.06
7
Xander Schauffele▼
USA - OWGR #10
CONTENDER
The Muirfield record is consistent without being thrilling — T8, T24, T25 across three starts — and the recent form is solid if unspectacular (T7 PGA, T9 Masters, 3rd at PLAYERS). The +1.95 SG Total and +0.78 approach number are legit, but the course fit adjustment is just +0.05, suggesting this isn't a venue that amplifies his edges. At +2427 with 3.96% model win equity, he's fairly priced rather than mispriced. Better spots coming.
 +2427
Tournament History & Odds
2025T25
2024T8
2023T24
Win+2427
Top 5+481
Top 10+231
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T7 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T60 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T12 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T9 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T4 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): 3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.76
🏌️ Approach+0.78
⛳ Around Green+0.10
🕳️ Putting+0.31
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.0%
Top 10 Probability
30.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History+0.02
8
Matt Fitzpatrick▼
ENG - OWGR #4
CONTENDER
Three wins in his last seven starts — Valspar, RBC Heritage, and the Zurich — plus a runner-up at THE PLAYERS. That's the hottest stretch of anyone outside Scheffler. The +0.42 SG Around the Green leads this group and pairs perfectly with Muirfield's penal short-game test, and his T5/T9 history here confirms the fit. At +2722 with the model giving him 3.54% to win, the price has lagged behind the form. Hammer the top-10 at +239.
 +2722
Tournament History & Odds
2025T31
2024T5
2023T9
Win+2722
Top 5+510
Top 10+239
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T14 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T52 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 1 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 1 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T18 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): 1 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): 2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.36
🏌️ Approach+0.76
⛳ Around Green+0.42
🕳️ Putting+0.27
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.5%
Top 10 Probability
29.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.21
Course History+0.03
9
Patrick Cantlay▼
USA - OWGR #33
CONTENDER
Six straight made cuts with five top-15s including T7 Valspar and T8 RBC Heritage, and the Muirfield resume — T12 in 2025, T30 in 2023 — says he belongs even with the 2024 missed cut. The +0.70 SG Approach and +0.41 OTT fit a ball-strikers' test, and the model's 24.4% top-10 number is the real signal. At +4047, this is the right price for a guy whose ceiling is a win and whose floor is a check.
 +4047
Tournament History & Odds
2025T12
2024MC
2023T30
Win+4047
Top 5+688
Top 10+310
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T10 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T8 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T7 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.41
🏌️ Approach+0.70
⛳ Around Green+0.29
🕳️ Putting+0.15
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.4%
Top 10 Probability
24.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History+0.12
10
J.J. Spaun▼
USA - OWGR #9
CONTENDER
The Valero Texas Open win in April and a T6 at Colonial last week confirm Spaun is playing the best golf of his career, and OWGR #9 is no longer a fluke. The +0.186 course fit adjustment is the strongest in this group, driven by +0.86 SG Approach that travels anywhere. The Muirfield history is ugly (MC in 2025, T30 in 2023), but at +4242 with a 22.5% top-10 projection, you're paying for the form, not the past.
 +4242
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023T30
Win+4242
Top 5+760
Top 10+345
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T6 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T5 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T14 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): 1 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.53
🏌️ Approach+0.86
⛳ Around Green+0.14
🕳️ Putting-0.11
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.3%
Top 10 Probability
22.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.19
Course History-0.01
11
Justin Thomas▼
USA - OWGR #16
CONTENDER
T4 at the PGA Championship and a runner-up at the Truist in May — the form is real, and the +0.52 SG Approach pairs with +0.33 around the green for a complete profile. Muirfield has historically frustrated him (T31, T33, MC), and the course history adjustment of -0.043 reflects that. Still, at +4344 with 22.0% top-10 odds, you're buying a two-time major champ trending up. Worth a sprinkle, not a hammer.
 +4344
Tournament History & Odds
2025T31
2024T33
2023MC
Win+4344
Top 5+773
Top 10+355
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T13 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T4 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 13 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T77 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T30 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.30
🏌️ Approach+0.52
⛳ Around Green+0.33
🕳️ Putting+0.24
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.2%
Top 10 Probability
22.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History-0.04
12
Tommy Fleetwood▼
ENG - OWGR #8
CONTENDER
The +0.227 course fit adjustment is the highest in this entire group, and the underlying numbers — +1.62 SG Total, +0.56 OTT, +0.56 Approach — explain why. T16 here in 2025 and T20 in 2024 say Muirfield suits the eye, and the T5 at Truist three weeks ago confirms the form. The PGA missed cut is a blip; at +4519 with a 22.9% top-10 number, this is the best value in the tier.
 +4519
Tournament History & Odds
2025T16
2024T20
2023NA
Win+4519
Top 5+760
Top 10+338
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T5 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T52 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T33 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T10 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.56
🏌️ Approach+0.56
⛳ Around Green+0.23
🕳️ Putting+0.27
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.2%
Top 10 Probability
22.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.23
Course History-0.04
13
Ben Griffin▼
USA - OWGR #14
VALUE
Runner-up at Muirfield in 2025 — that's the headline, and it's backed by a T3 at Colonial last week and a 3rd at Miami in April. The putter is the engine (+0.61 SG Putting) on greens that demand exactly that, and OWGR #14 is no accident. The +5330 price feels lazy given the course history, and 21.2% top-10 implied is generous for a guy who already finished second here. Plays like an overlay.
 +5330
Tournament History & Odds
20252
2024MC
2023MC
Win+5330
Top 5+843
Top 10+372
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T3 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T14 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T63 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): 3 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T10 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T33 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.19
🏌️ Approach+0.26
⛳ Around Green+0.35
🕳️ Putting+0.61
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
21.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.14
Course History+0.02
14
Min Woo Lee▼
AUS - OWGR #31
VALUE
Four straight top-20s including T18 at the PGA and T14 at Truist, and the +1.59 SG Total ranks near the top of this group. The problem is Muirfield itself — T49 in 2025 and an MC in 2023 give him a -0.018 course history adjustment, and the +0.014 fit number is essentially neutral. At +5466 with only an 18.8% top-10, you're paying for the talent without any course-specific edge. Pass at the win number.
 +5466
Tournament History & Odds
2025T49
2024NA
2023MC
Win+5466
Top 5+962
Top 10+432
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T18 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T14 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T18 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T60 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T3 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.66
🏌️ Approach+0.35
⛳ Around Green+0.29
🕳️ Putting+0.29
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
18.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History-0.02
15
Alex Smalley▼
USA - OWGR #38
VALUE
Runner-up at the PGA Championship, T3 at Colonial, T2 at Zurich, T7 at Miami — Smalley has been everywhere on leaderboards the last two months and OWGR #38 is climbing fast. The +0.55 SG Approach and +0.30 putting fit Muirfield's demands, and the +0.134 course fit adjustment confirms the model agrees. The lone Muirfield start was an MC in 2023, but that's stale data on a different player. At +6086, this is the longshot with an actual win path.
 +6086
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023MC
Win+6086
Top 5+988
Top 10+440
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T3 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T2 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T17 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T7 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T2 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T14 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T46 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.36
🏌️ Approach+0.55
⛳ Around Green+0.11
🕳️ Putting+0.30
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
18.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.13
Course History-0.03
16
Hideki Matsuyama▼
JPN - OWGR #20
VALUE
Three straight Muirfield finishes of 38, T8, and T16 give him a positive course history adjustment, and the +0.63 SG Approach is exactly the skill this course rewards. The recent form is tepid — T13 at Colonial is the best result in his last seven starts — and the off-the-tee number (-0.05) is a concern on a 7,533-yard test. At +6530 with 1.51% win equity, the top-10 ticket at +455 is the smarter angle than backing the outright.
 +6530
Tournament History & Odds
202538
2024T8
2023T16
Win+6530
Top 5+1048
Top 10+455
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T13 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 71 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T53 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T21 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T27
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee-0.05
🏌️ Approach+0.63
⛳ Around Green+0.34
🕳️ Putting+0.21
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
18.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.11
Course History+0.01
17
Chris Gotterup▼
USA - OWGR #11
VALUE
OWGR #11 with two missed cuts in two Memorial starts — that's the tension here. The ball-striking profile is legit (+1.47 SG Total, +0.61 OTT) and the form is solid with T10 at the PGA and T14 at the Truist, but the -0.089 course fit adjustment and 0-for-2 history at Muirfield say this track doesn't suit him. At +7262, you're paying for the ranking, not the fit. Pass on the win bet, lean toward a top-10 sprinkle at +534.
 +7262
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023MC
Win+7262
Top 5+1204
Top 10+534
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T10 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T14 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T24 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T6 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T56
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.61
🏌️ Approach+0.42
⛳ Around Green+0.09
🕳️ Putting+0.35
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
15.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.09
Course History-0.01
18
Jordan Spieth▼
USA - OWGR #49
VALUE
T7 in 2025 and T5 in 2023 at Muirfield — Spieth's course history here is genuinely good, and the +0.037 history adjustment confirms it. The +0.4 SG Approach has rounded into shape with five top-20s in his last seven including T12 at the Masters and T18 at the PGA. At +7317 with a 16.9% top-10 number, the place markets are where the value sits, not the outright. Top-20 at +33.8% implied is the cleanest bet.
 +7317
Tournament History & Odds
2025T7
2024MC
2023T5
Win+7317
Top 5+1120
Top 10+493
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T18 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T52 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T18 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T63 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T11 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.39
🏌️ Approach+0.40
⛳ Around Green+0.18
🕳️ Putting+0.20
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
16.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History+0.04
19
Robert MacIntyre▼
SCO - OWGR #17
VALUE
Runner-up at the Valero and 4th at THE PLAYERS earlier this spring, but the recent stretch is ugly: MC at the PGA, T60 at Truist, T42 at Colonial. The +0.107 course fit adjustment is encouraging and the +0.49 SG Putting travels, but +0.06 SG Approach won't cut it on a ball-strikers' track like Muirfield. At +7505 with form trending the wrong way, this is a fade for the outright — wait for him to flash iron play again before backing him.
 +7505
Tournament History & Odds
2025T20
2024NA
2023NA
Win+7505
Top 5+1136
Top 10+490
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T42 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T60 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T2 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): 4
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.50
🏌️ Approach+0.06
⛳ Around Green+0.16
🕳️ Putting+0.49
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
17.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.11
Course History+0.01
20
Sepp Straka▼
AUT - OWGR #18
VALUE
Course history that screams: 3rd in 2025, T5 in 2024, T16 in 2023. The +0.065 history adjustment and +0.126 fit number are both top-tier in this group, and the +0.68 SG Approach is exactly the skill Muirfield rewards. The MC at the PGA and T63 at Truist are concerning, but the T4 at Miami and T8 at THE PLAYERS show the ceiling is intact. At +7954 with this course track record, the outright price is genuinely fair — worth a half-unit.
 +7954
Tournament History & Odds
20253
2024T5
2023T16
Win+7954
Top 5+1290
Top 10+557
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T63 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T4 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.07
🏌️ Approach+0.68
⛳ Around Green+-0.00
🕳️ Putting+0.07
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
15.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.13
Course History+0.07
21
Rickie Fowler▼
USA - OWGR #39
VALUE
The +0.136 course fit adjustment is the highest of this group, and Fowler's recent run — T2 at the Truist, T9 at Miami, T8 at Heritage — proves the game has actually returned. T7 here in 2025 and T9 in 2023 add a +0.053 history bump. The MC at Colonial is a blip; the underlying profile (+0.31 SG Approach, +0.25 SG Putting) fits Muirfield's demands. At +8019, this is the most mispriced longshot on the board for a top-10 dart.
 +8019
Tournament History & Odds
2025T7
2024MC
2023T9
Win+8019
Top 5+1232
Top 10+528
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T60 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T2 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T9 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T8 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T42
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.31
🏌️ Approach+0.31
⛳ Around Green+0.07
🕳️ Putting+0.25
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
15.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.14
Course History+0.05
22
Sam Burns▼
USA - OWGR #34
VALUE
Three straight Memorial cashes (T12, T15, T16) without ever truly threatening — that's the Burns profile in a sentence. The +1.22 SG Total and elite +0.66 SG Putting are real, and T7 at the Masters shows the big-event game travels, but the +0.014 fit number and flat +0.002 history adjustment say the model doesn't see a breakthrough here. +8496 is a fair price for a guy whose ceiling at this venue has been capped at T12. Skip the outright, consider top-20 at +29.9%.
 +8496
Tournament History & Odds
2025T12
2024T15
2023T16
Win+8496
Top 5+1348
Top 10+584
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T7 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.27
🏌️ Approach+0.26
⛳ Around Green+0.04
🕳️ Putting+0.66
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
14.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.00
23
Kurt Kitayama▼
USA - OWGR #30
VALUE
Best pure iron play in this group — +0.73 SG Approach paired with +0.61 OTT is a contender's tee-to-green profile, and the recent run (T10 PGA, T19 Truist, T9 Miami, T8 Heritage) confirms he's playing the best golf of anyone priced this long. The catch: two career missed cuts at Muirfield and a -0.052 history adjustment. At +8855 the ball-striking justifies a small outright stab, but the place markets at +605 for top-10 are the smarter play given the course history red flag.
 +8855
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023MC
Win+8855
Top 5+1387
Top 10+605
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T10 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T19 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T9 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T8 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 51 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T60 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.61
🏌️ Approach+0.73
⛳ Around Green-0.05
🕳️ Putting+0.02
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
14.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History-0.05
24
Gary Woodland▼
USA - OWGR #43
VALUE
Won the Houston Open in March and just posted T6 at Colonial — Woodland's quietly stacked together a real season at age 40. The +0.6 SG OTT is elite for this track and the +0.055 history adjustment from his T24 in 2023 helps, but -0.24 SG Around the Green is a problem on Muirfield's contoured complexes. At +9231 with a 14.2% top-10 number, he's priced about right. No edge on the outright, but a top-20 ticket at +29.6% has some meat.
 +9231
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023T24
Win+9231
Top 5+1384
Top 10+602
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T6 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T17 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T8 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T33 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): 1 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T14 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.60
🏌️ Approach+0.33
⛳ Around Green-0.24
🕳️ Putting+0.16
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
14.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History+0.06
25
Maverick McNealy▼
USA - OWGR #35
VALUE
T5 here in 2025 is the only Memorial result on his card, but it matters — he hung with the field at a course that punishes guys who don't belong. Seven straight made cuts since THE PLAYERS (T18 at the PGA the latest), and the +0.50 SG Putting is the best on his ledger. At +9379 with a 14% top-10 model number, he's a sensible top-10 play more than a win ticket.
 +9379
Tournament History & Odds
2025T5
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9379
Top 5+1429
Top 10+614
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T18 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T18 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T21 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.23
🏌️ Approach+0.25
⛳ Around Green+0.28
🕳️ Putting+0.50
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
14.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History-0.03
26
Adam Scott▼
AUS - OWGR #50
VALUE
The +0.71 SG Approach is the calling card, and Muirfield has historically loved Scott's iron flight — T9 in 2023 backs that up alongside a +0.081 course history bump. T4 at Miami in April proves the game still travels, but the missed cut at the PGA and a -0.13 putter cap the realistic ceiling. At +9454, a top-20 sprinkle (29.3% model) is the cleaner ticket than chasing the outright.
 +9454
Tournament History & Odds
2025T31
2024NA
2023T9
Win+9454
Top 5+1425
Top 10+611
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T24 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T4 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T24 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T56
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.42
🏌️ Approach+0.71
⛳ Around Green+0.10
🕳️ Putting-0.13
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
14.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.08
27
Jake Knapp▼
USA - OWGR #40
VALUE
11th at the Masters and T6 in Houston show the ceiling, and the +1.29 SG Total is genuinely a contender-tier number across the board. Problem: the only Muirfield data point is a missed cut in 2024, the course fit adj sits at -0.040, and he just shot T74 at Harbour Town. The model gives him 1.01% to win and 73.5% to make the cut — that's a fade at +9752 until the course history shows a pulse.
 +9752
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023NA
Win+9752
Top 5+1573
Top 10+697
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T74 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 11 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T6 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.52
🏌️ Approach+0.36
⛳ Around Green+0.03
🕳️ Putting+0.39
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
12.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History-0.01
28
Nicolai Hojgaard▼
DEN - OWGR #29
VALUE
Runner-up at the Truist three weeks ago and a solo 2nd in Houston back in March — when this kid gets hot, the +0.60 SG Approach and +0.55 OTT play anywhere. The Muirfield read is the concern: lone start was a missed cut in 2023 and the course fit adjustment is -0.091, the worst in this batch. At +9984 the talent is real, but the venue evidence says top-20 (28.2%) over outright.
 +9984
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023MC
Win+9984
Top 5+1569
Top 10+663
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T2 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T55 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): 2 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T55 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T27
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.55
🏌️ Approach+0.60
⛳ Around Green+0.04
🕳️ Putting+0.14
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
13.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.09
Course History-0.01
29
Justin Rose▼
ENG - OWGR #6
VALUE
Solo 3rd at the Masters and T10 at Quail Hollow — Rose at 45 is still showing up at the biggest events, and the +0.075 course history adjustment plus +0.064 fit number say Muirfield suits him even with a thin recent record (T44 in 2025, MC in 2024). The OWGR #6 ranking flatters him a bit; the +0.80 SG Total is the worst in this group. At +11115, the major-week ceiling is the buy, but the win equity is light.
 +11115
Tournament History & Odds
2025T44
2024MC
2023NA
Win+11115
Top 5+1678
Top 10+717
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T10 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T45 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T65 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T3 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.12
🏌️ Approach+0.51
⛳ Around Green+0.07
🕳️ Putting+0.10
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
12.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History+0.07
30
Aaron Rai▼
ENG - OWGR #13
VALUE
Major champion. Won the PGA two weeks ago and followed a solo 5th at Myrtle Beach right before it — that's the hottest form in this entire batch and it's not particularly close. The +0.307 course fit adjustment is also the highest number on this page by a mile, even though the Muirfield record (two MCs) is ugly. At +11157 with a fresh major in the bag, this price has to come down — bet now.
 +11157
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023MC
Win+11157
Top 5+1556
Top 10+638
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): 1 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): 5 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T24 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 48 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.23
🏌️ Approach+0.60
⛳ Around Green+0.14
🕳️ Putting-0.04
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
13.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.31
Course History-0.03
31
Harris English▼
USA - OWGR #23
VALUE
T12 at Muirfield in 2025 and T4 at Harbour Town in April are the two data points that matter, and the +0.126 course fit adjustment supports the iron-and-putter profile this place demands. The +0.45 SG Putting leads this group and pairs nicely with +0.17 around the greens — exactly the short-game combo that survives bentgrass that gets to 13+ on the stimp. At +11948 with a 13.3% top-10 number, he's live for a place ticket.
 +11948
Tournament History & Odds
2025T12
2024MC
2023T52
Win+11948
Top 5+1572
Top 10+652
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T18 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T24 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T55 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T4 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T30 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.30
🏌️ Approach+0.17
⛳ Around Green+0.17
🕳️ Putting+0.45
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
13.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.13
Course History-0.00
32
Keegan Bradley▼
USA - OWGR #37
VALUE
T7 at the Memorial last year is the anchor — Bradley has cashed all three of his recent starts here (T7, T43, T30) and the Ryder Cup captain shows up for events with prestige attached. Form is choppy though: MC at the PGA, T35 at Colonial, and the +0.82 SG Total is middling for a Signature event. The +12095 number is fair, but with a 0.82% model win probability there's no real edge — top-20 (27%) is the spot.
 +12095
Tournament History & Odds
2025T7
2024T43
2023T30
Win+12095
Top 5+1758
Top 10+714
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T19 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T49 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T12 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T21 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T55 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T50
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.16
🏌️ Approach+0.25
⛳ Around Green+0.23
🕳️ Putting+0.17
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
12.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History-0.03
33
Alex Noren▼
SWE - OWGR #21
VALUE
Three straight made cuts at Muirfield (T39-T22-T52) plus a top-25 OWGR ranking and the Memorial-friendly +0.203 course fit adjustment make Noren a sneaky top-20 play at +12271. The +0.43 SG Putting is the surprise piece — usually it's the iron play carrying him — and that flatstick uptick is what pushed the T7 in Miami last month. Win equity is minimal at 0.8%, but the 28.6% top-20 number is where the value lives.
 +12271
Tournament History & Odds
2025T39
2024T22
2023T52
Win+12271
Top 5+1665
Top 10+672
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T31 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T7 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T65 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T30 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T30 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.03
🏌️ Approach+0.39
⛳ Around Green+0.13
🕳️ Putting+0.43
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
13.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.20
Course History+0.01
34
Ryan Gerard▼
USA - OWGR #36
VALUE
The +0.59 SG Approach is genuinely elite and it's why he just finished T10 at Colonial coming in. Gerard's only Muirfield trip produced a T23 in 2025, which on this course translates better than most realize — guys who solve it once tend to solve it again. At +12322 the outright is a pass, but 26.9% to crack the top 20 on a ball-strikers' track with his iron profile is a fair Top 20 ticket.
 +12322
Tournament History & Odds
2025T23
2024NA
2023NA
Win+12322
Top 5+1772
Top 10+728
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T10 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T70 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T65 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 34 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T38 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T27
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.25
🏌️ Approach+0.59
⛳ Around Green-0.06
🕳️ Putting+0.10
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
12.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.12
Course History+0.01
35
Wyndham Clark▼
USA - OWGR #45
VALUE
Won the CJ Cup Byron Nelson three weeks ago, then missed the cut at the PGA — that's Clark in a nutshell, and it's why +12426 is both tempting and terrifying. The T12 here in 2023 is the lone bright spot in his Memorial history (MC in '24, 56th in '25), and the course fit adjustment of +0.002 says this isn't really his place. The recent win inflates the price more than the profile deserves; fade the outright, consider a Top 10 at +733 if you trust the post-win bounce.
 +12426
Tournament History & Odds
202556
2024MC
2023T12
Win+12426
Top 5+1764
Top 10+733
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 1 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T20 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T21 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T42
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.10
🏌️ Approach+0.33
⛳ Around Green+0.23
🕳️ Putting+0.29
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
12.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History-0.02
36
Akshay Bhatia▼
USA - OWGR #26
VALUE
Two straight T16-or-better finishes at Muirfield (T16 in '25, T22 in '24) on a course that should not fit a left-handed guy who loses strokes off the tee (-0.17 SG OTT). The +0.51 SG Putting is doing most of the heavy lifting, and on these severely contoured bentgrass greens, that's actually the skill that travels. At +12943 with an 11.7% top-10 number, he's a defensible top-20 dart but the OTT deficit caps the ceiling.
 +12943
Tournament History & Odds
2025T16
2024T22
2023MC
Win+12943
Top 5+1791
Top 10+754
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T28 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee-0.17
🏌️ Approach+0.36
⛳ Around Green+0.15
🕳️ Putting+0.51
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
11.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History+0.01
37
Shane Lowry▼
IRL - OWGR #41
VALUE
The +0.54 SG Approach and +0.22 SG OTT combo is exactly the Muirfield blueprint, and Lowry has three straight made cuts here (T16-49-T23) to back it up. Problem: the putter is barely above neutral at +0.15 and his 2026 has been a parade of T23-to-T44 finishes with zero top-10s since the calendar flipped. At +13444 he's priced like the ball-striking grinder he is — fairly. A small top-10 sprinkle at +726 is the only sensible angle.
 +13444
Tournament History & Odds
2025T23
202449
2023T16
Win+13444
Top 5+1781
Top 10+726
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T30 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.22
🏌️ Approach+0.54
⛳ Around Green+0.02
🕳️ Putting+0.15
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
12.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.12
Course History-0.00
38
Ryo Hisatsune▼
JPN - OWGR #59
VALUE
Zero Muirfield reps and a +0.114 course fit adjustment built almost entirely on the +0.44 SG OTT and +0.42 SG Approach numbers — the iron-and-driver combo this place demands. The T13 at PLAYERS and T8 at Valero in March hint at a ceiling, but the 66th at Colonial last week is a real concern heading into a tougher test. At +14499 with no course history to lean on, this is a blind dart that probably needs to stay in the bag.
 +14499
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14499
Top 5+1984
Top 10+788
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): 66 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T45 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T65 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T60 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T8 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T30 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.44
🏌️ Approach+0.42
⛳ Around Green+0.03
🕳️ Putting-0.02
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
11.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.11
Course History—
39
Kristoffer Reitan▼
NOR - OWGR #25
VALUE
Won the Truist two weeks ago and followed it with a T44 at the PGA — and now he gets a course he's never seen with a slightly negative -0.008 fit adjustment. The +0.6 SG OTT leads this group and the +1.02 SG Total is the best number among these longshots, but Muirfield has historically been brutal on first-timers regardless of form. At +14715 the price reflects the win bounce more than the course math; the 23.3% top-20 is the only number worth a ticket.
 +14715
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14715
Top 5+2114
Top 10+869
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 1 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T14 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T2 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T10 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T66
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.60
🏌️ Approach+0.19
⛳ Around Green-0.01
🕳️ Putting+0.24
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
10.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History—
40
Bud Cauley▼
USA - OWGR #65
LONGSHOT
Solo 7th at Harbour Town in April and a T26 at the PGA say the comeback story is real, and the +0.48 SG Approach is the kind of number that ages well at Muirfield. The lone course rep was a T39 in 2025 — fine, not predictive — and the -0.06 putting mark on these greens is the obvious ceiling cap. At +15689 with a 23.6% top-20 probability, a small top-20 ticket is the only defensible play; the outright is a lottery scratcher.
 +15689
Tournament History & Odds
2025T39
2024NA
2023NA
Win+15689
Top 5+2226
Top 10+883
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 7 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T21 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): 74 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.23
🏌️ Approach+0.48
⛳ Around Green+0.15
🕳️ Putting-0.06
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
10.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History+0.01
41
Nick Taylor▼
CAN - OWGR #60
LONGSHOT
A solo 4th at Muirfield last year is the headline, and it's backed by a T27 in '24 — Taylor has quietly figured this place out despite an MC in '23. The +0.44 SG Approach fits the test, and his recent T9-T14-T26 run through Miami, Truist, and the PGA shows the game is sharpening. At +15900 with an 11.1% top-10 number, the win equity is thin but he's a legitimate top-20 dart with course-proven upside.
 +15900
Tournament History & Odds
20254
2024T27
2023MC
Win+15900
Top 5+2024
Top 10+802
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T14 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T9 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T60 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T28 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T42
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee-0.01
🏌️ Approach+0.44
⛳ Around Green+0.28
🕳️ Putting+0.15
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
11.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.18
Course History+0.03
42
Corey Conners▼
CAN - OWGR #53
LONGSHOT
Pure ball-striker, mediocre everywhere else, and the +0.181 course fit adjustment says Muirfield should reward exactly what he does — +0.53 SG Approach, +0.26 OTT, and -0.04 putting that has capped his ceiling for years. Course history is fine not great (T25, T20, MC), and the recent form (T55-T31-T30) is uninspiring. At +15900 he's a perfectly fine top-20 play (23.7%) but the 0.62% model win number tells you not to chase the outright.
 +15900
Tournament History & Odds
2025T25
2024T20
2023MC
Win+15900
Top 5+2141
Top 10+862
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T55 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T31 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T55 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T49 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T14 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.26
🏌️ Approach+0.53
⛳ Around Green+0.02
🕳️ Putting-0.04
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
10.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.18
Course History-0.03
43
Mac Meissner▼
USA - OWGR #81
LONGSHOT
Solo 3rd at Colonial last week capped a stretch of T3-T9-T10 in his last four starts, and now he walks into Muirfield with zero course reps and a +0.29 SG Putting number that's been carrying him. The +0.36 SG Approach plays, but the +0.049 course fit adjustment is tepid and this is a meaningful jump in field strength. At +16293 the momentum is real, but blind first-timers at Jack's place is a tough ask — top-20 ticket (23.4%) over the outright.
 +16293
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+16293
Top 5+2337
Top 10+899
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T3 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T31 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T9 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T10 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T30 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee-0.01
🏌️ Approach+0.36
⛳ Around Green+0.21
🕳️ Putting+0.29
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
10.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History—
44
Sahith Theegala▼
USA - OWGR #82
LONGSHOT
The T12 here in 2024 is the only thing keeping this number from being a fade — Theegala has gone T60-T60-69 in his last three starts and the SG numbers (+0.23 approach, +0.10 putting) are a shadow of the 2023-24 version. Course fit is essentially neutral at +0.026. At +16293 with a 10.3% top-10, you're paying for name equity and one good Muirfield week from two years ago. Pass.
 +16293
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T12
2023T58
Win+16293
Top 5+2144
Top 10+869
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T60 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T60 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 69 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T24 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T10 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.15
🏌️ Approach+0.23
⛳ Around Green+0.21
🕳️ Putting+0.10
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
10.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History+0.05
45
Jacob Bridgeman▼
USA - OWGR #24
LONGSHOT
OWGR #24 in this field at +18082 is the disconnect worth exploring — the +0.91 SG Total is the best of this entire group and the T5 at THE PLAYERS in March proves the ceiling is real. The recent stretch (MC at PGA, T52 Truist, T65 Miami) is ugly though, and the T31 in his lone Muirfield look doesn't move the needle. The +0.41 SG Putting is the carrier; if the irons show up, the top-20 (22.3%) hits.
 +18082
Tournament History & Odds
2025T31
2024NA
2023NA
Win+18082
Top 5+2343
Top 10+947
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T52 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T65 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T14 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T5
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.13
🏌️ Approach+0.26
⛳ Around Green+0.10
🕳️ Putting+0.41
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
9.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History+0.01
46
J.T. Poston▼
USA - OWGR #94
LONGSHOT
The +0.151 course fit adjustment is doing all the heavy lifting here, because the raw profile (+0.61 SG Total, +0.05 putting, -0.024 course history adj) does not scream Memorial contender. Two made cuts in three Muirfield tries (T22 '24, T38 '23) and a recent T24 at the Truist are the bright spots. At +18650 with a 0.53% model win, this is a skip — the price reflects the fact that he's a 72-hole grinder, not a winner at signature events.
 +18650
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T22
2023T38
Win+18650
Top 5+2429
Top 10+933
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T24 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T49 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T60 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T21 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T50
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.26
🏌️ Approach+0.29
⛳ Around Green+0.01
🕳️ Putting+0.05
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
9.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.15
Course History-0.02
47
Eric Cole▼
USA - OWGR #69
LONGSHOT
Runner-up at Colonial last week, and the broader heater is legit: T6 Myrtle Beach, T6 Zurich, T14 Valero, 2 at Schwab. The problem is Muirfield punishes drivers, and Cole's -0.43 SG OTT is the worst figure in this entire tier — his three course history finishes (T44, T45, T24) reflect that exact bottleneck. At +18887 the form is screaming, but the course fit is screaming louder. Top-20 dart only.
 +18887
Tournament History & Odds
2025T44
2024T45
2023T24
Win+18887
Top 5+2374
Top 10+962
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): 2 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T31 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T6 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T6 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T14 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T51 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee-0.43
🏌️ Approach+0.33
⛳ Around Green+0.32
🕳️ Putting+0.48
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
9.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.01
48
Matt McCarty▼
USA - OWGR #51
LONGSHOT
T10-T9-T10-T12 across four of his last six starts is the kind of quiet consistency that gets ignored at +19069, and the +0.131 course fit adjustment likes his +0.34 SG Approach for a debut at Muirfield. The MC at the PGA and the two MCs in March are the warts, and there's zero course history to lean on. With a 22.0% top-20 number and a 9.2% top-10, the place markets are where the value lives — not the outright.
 +19069
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+19069
Top 5+2551
Top 10+990
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T60 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T10 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T9 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T10 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T12 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T24 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T39 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.11
🏌️ Approach+0.34
⛳ Around Green+0.01
🕳️ Putting+0.20
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
9.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.13
Course History—
49
Andrew Novak▼
USA - OWGR #56
LONGSHOT
Eight made cuts in his last ten starts with a T10 at Zurich, T14 at Valero, and T16 at Hilton Head sprinkled in — Novak is grinding out a quietly consistent stretch at +19131. The +0.50 SG Approach is the engine, but the -0.17 putter on bentgrass greens this slick is the obvious ceiling cap. T51 in his lone Memorial appearance suggests Muirfield isn't his pet course either. Top-20 ticket at 21% modeled is fair; the win number is a pass.
 +19131
Tournament History & Odds
2025T51
2024NA
2023NA
Win+19131
Top 5+2571
Top 10+1043
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T54 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T24 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T65 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T10 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T14 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T55 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.16
🏌️ Approach+0.50
⛳ Around Green+0.16
🕳️ Putting-0.17
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
8.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History-0.02
50
Sam Stevens▼
USA - OWGR #52
LONGSHOT
Best raw profile in this longshot cluster at +0.71 SG Total with a balanced OTT/Approach split (+0.31/+0.37) that fits how Muirfield punishes one-dimensional players. The trouble is the form chart — T42-T65-70 in his last three signature/major-level starts, with the only real spark a solo 5th at Houston back in March. T31 and T41 in two Memorial appearances says he can survive the test without threatening it. At +19834, the 22.5% top-20 number is the only piece of this ticket worth touching.
 +19834
Tournament History & Odds
2025T31
2024NA
2023T41
Win+19834
Top 5+2500
Top 10+976
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T42 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T65 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 70 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T18 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T13 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T65 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T24 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): 5 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): 58
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.31
🏌️ Approach+0.37
⛳ Around Green+0.07
🕳️ Putting-0.04
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
9.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History+0.01
51
Brian Harman▼
USA - OWGR #57
LONGSHOT
Course fit adjustment of +0.155 is one of the highest in this entire batch, which makes sense — Muirfield's premium on iron control and putting (+0.35 SG APP, +0.16 putting) maps cleanly onto Harman's skill set. Problem: the course history adjustment is -0.084 and he's missed the cut here in two of his last three tries, including 2025. T22 at Colonial and T11 at Players are real, but +21483 is asking you to ignore that he's never actually played Jack's place well. Hard fade on the outright.
 +21483
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T33
2023MC
Win+21483
Top 5+2384
Top 10+928
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T22 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T60 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T31 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T33 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T39 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T11
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee-0.07
🏌️ Approach+0.35
⛳ Around Green+0.17
🕳️ Putting+0.16
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
9.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.15
Course History-0.08
52
Pierceson Coody▼
USA - OWGR #55
LONGSHOT
The +0.56 SG Off-the-Tee leads this group and the model has him at 9.0% top-10 despite zero Memorial reps. Recent form is steady-not-spectacular — T22 Colonial, T19 Byron Nelson, T24 Truist — but the -0.17 around-the-green number is a real concern on a course where short-siding yourself into Muirfield's collection areas is a weekly occurrence. No course history is a coin flip rather than a red flag at +21718. Top-20 at 21.3% is the only realistic angle.
 +21718
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+21718
Top 5+2641
Top 10+1010
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T22 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T24 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): WD • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T55 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.56
🏌️ Approach+0.15
⛳ Around Green-0.17
🕳️ Putting+0.24
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
9.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History—
53
Harry Hall▼
ENG - OWGR #64
LONGSHOT
Best putter in this cluster by a mile at +0.40, which matters more at Muirfield than almost anywhere on tour given how much these bentgrass greens dictate scoring. The T8 at Truist three starts ago hints at the ceiling, but he's bookended that with missed cuts at the PGA and Colonial and has zero Memorial history to lean on. The -0.18 OTT number is a problem on a 7,533-yard track that demands position. At +23066, the win is fantasy; the top-10 at 8.9% is the only honest play.
 +23066
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+23066
Top 5+2668
Top 10+1029
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T8 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T65 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee-0.18
🏌️ Approach+0.23
⛳ Around Green+0.33
🕳️ Putting+0.40
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
8.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History—
54
Jason Day▼
AUS - OWGR #44
LONGSHOT
T12 at the Masters and T6 at Houston are the form anchors worth respecting, and the +0.36 around-green / +0.31 putting combo is exactly the short-game profile that survives Muirfield's nastier pin locations. The catch is the -0.07 SG Approach in a week where iron play is the entire ballgame, plus T33 and a missed cut in his last two Memorial trips. OWGR #44 at +24094 isn't an insult, but the model's 0.41% win number is being generous. Pass on outrights, consider a small top-20.
 +24094
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T33
2023MC
Win+24094
Top 5+2955
Top 10+1173
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T65 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 68 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T6 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T59
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee-0.04
🏌️ Approach-0.07
⛳ Around Green+0.36
🕳️ Putting+0.31
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
7.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History+0.00
55
Alex Fitzpatrick▼
ENG - OWGR #88
LONGSHOT
Course history is the entire pitch here: T9 in 2023, T5 in 2024, T31 in 2025 — Fitzpatrick has finished in the top-31 in three straight Memorial appearances despite being OWGR #88. Pair that with a win at Zurich, a T9 at Miami, and a solo 4th at Truist over the last six weeks, and the +0.82 SG Total starts to make a lot more sense. The +0.135 course fit adjustment confirms the eye test. At +24390, this is the longshot in this batch with an actual win path — playable outright at a small stake.
 +24390
Tournament History & Odds
2025T31
2024T5
2023T9
Win+24390
Top 5+2865
Top 10+1079
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T75 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 4 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T9 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 1
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.36
🏌️ Approach+0.35
⛳ Around Green+0.09
🕳️ Putting+0.03
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
8.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.14
Course History—

Round 1 — Head-to-Head Pairings

Grp Tee Time Hole Player 1 Odds Player 2 Odds Tie Odds
1 07:45 1 Brian Campbell +225 Pierceson Coody -152 Tie +1014
2 07:55 1 Ryan Fox +135 Daniel Berger +110 Tie +910
3 08:05 1 Jason Day +162 Jordan Spieth -108 Tie +923
4 08:15 1 Billy Horschel +172 Sam Stevens -115 Tie +931
5 08:25 1 J.T. Poston +129 Ryo Hisatsune +115 Tie +925
6 08:35 1 Adam Scott +136 Alex Smalley +108 Tie +937
7 08:45 1 Nick Taylor -119 Nico Echavarria +178 Tie +934
8 08:55 1 Keegan Bradley +115 Corey Conners +130 Tie +917
9 09:10 1 Hideki Matsuyama -110 Andrew Novak +163 Tie +943
10 09:20 1 Sepp Straka +124 Chris Gotterup +119 Tie +931
11 09:30 1 Shane Lowry +102 Sungjae Im +146 Tie +920
12 09:40 1 Sam Burns +113 Akshay Bhatia +131 Tie +934
13 09:50 1 J.J. Spaun -108 Wyndham Clark +161 Tie +921
14 10:00 1 Justin Rose +134 Rickie Fowler +109 Tie +954
15 10:10 1 Tommy Fleetwood +141 Cameron Young +105 Tie +938
16 10:25 1 Rory McIlroy -107 Justin Thomas +156 Tie +976
17 10:35 1 Michael Kim +151 Kurt Kitayama -102 Tie +949
18 10:45 1 Matt Kuchar +156 Bud Cauley -104 Tie +924
19 10:55 1 Alex Noren -137 Tom Hoge +204 Tie +972
20 11:05 1 Patrick Rodgers +161 Nicolai Hojgaard -111 Tie +1002
21 11:15 1 Jhonattan Vegas +160 Sudarshan Yellamaraju -109 Tie +957
22 11:25 1 Tony Finau +118 Taylor Pendrith +123 Tie +965
23 11:40 1 Mark Hubbard +185 Ryan Gerard -124 Tie +950
24 11:50 1 Brandt Snedeker +159 Eric Cole -106 Tie +901
25 12:00 1 Si Woo Kim -134 Sahith Theegala +198 Tie +985
26 12:10 1 Denny McCarthy +144 Harry Hall +105 Tie +875
27 12:20 1 Harris English +135 Robert MacIntyre +112 Tie +867
28 12:30 1 Alex Fitzpatrick +123 Jacob Bridgeman +119 Tie +951
29 12:40 1 Maverick McNealy +110 Kristoffer Reitan +133 Tie +954
30 12:55 1 Brian Harman +168 Ben Griffin -114 Tie +952
31 13:05 1 Gary Woodland +151 Patrick Cantlay -101 Tie +917
32 13:15 1 Russell Henley +112 Matt Fitzpatrick +132 Tie +930
33 13:25 1 Xander Schauffele +133 Ludvig Aberg +111 Tie +950
34 13:35 1 Scottie Scheffler -198 Aaron Rai +299 Tie +1080
35 13:45 1 Lucas Glover +172 Matt McCarty -115 Tie +926
36 13:55 1 Min Woo Lee -103 Mac Meissner +155 Tie +901
COSMOS GOLF BETTING PREVIEW
Strokes Gained & Model from Data Golf. Odds from GolfData API.