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// BETTING PREVIEW - MAY 14-17
PGA Championship
May 14-17, 2026 | Newtown Square, Pennsylvania
⛅ Tournament Weather Forecast
Expect partly cloudy skies with highs in the 68F range and light winds around 10 mph throughout the week. Some rain is possible, making for ideal scoring conditions.
Miller
- Win:Bryson DeChambeau+3241
- Top 5:Scottie Scheffler+162
- Top 10:Jon Rahm+180
Kevin
- Win:Cameron Young+1607
- Top 5:Rory McIlroy+292
- Top 10:Scottie Scheffler-115
Andrew
- Win:Shane Lowry+20378
- Top 5:Dustin Johnson+7148
- Top 10:Rory McIlroy+156
Kcon
- Win:Brooks Koepka+9593
- Top 5:Cameron Young+373
- Top 10:Justin Rose+786
Parbeh
- Win:TBD-
- Top 5:TBD-
- Top 10:TBD-
JB
- Win:TBD-
- Top 5:TBD-
- Top 10:TBD-
Scottie Scheffler towers over the PGA Championship field with a +2.87 SG Total (best in the field by 0.64 strokes) and our model projects a 13.8% win probability — more than double the implied odds at +624. Bryson DeChambeau presents perhaps the most compelling narrative value play: his SG Total of +1.40 ranks only 14th in the field, yet his extraordinary course history (T2 in 2025, 2nd in 2024, T4 in 2023) and +0.109 course fit adjustment make him dangerously underpriced at +3241. Cameron Young quietly profiles as a top-tier contender at +1607 with the third-best SG Total in the field (+2.13) and a strong +0.118 course fit, yet he draws a fraction of the attention of players ranked below him in our model.
Scheffler Is the Clear Alpha Play
Scottie Scheffler leads the field in SG Total (+2.87), SG Approach (#1 at +1.08), and SG Putting (#2 at +0.55) — a rare combination of elite ball-striking and putting. His model win probability of 13.8% at +624 makes him the strongest edge in the field, and his PGA Championship history (1st, T8, T2 over the last three years) is immaculate.
Scottie Scheffler
DeChambeau's History Screams Live Longshot
At +3241, Bryson DeChambeau carries the best three-year PGA Championship history in the field (T2-2nd-T4) and a +0.109 course fit adjustment that ranks among the highest. His 3.0% model win probability against an implied 0.03% at the current price represents roughly 100x value on paper — the kind of asymmetric bet you build a card around.
Bryson DeChambeau
Cameron Young: Stealth Top-3 Profile
Cameron Young's +2.13 SG Total ranks third in the entire 156-player field, yet his +1607 price implies far less respect than Jon Rahm (+1576) who sits just one spot above him in the model. Young's +0.118 course fit is the second-highest among the top 10, and our model gives him a 5.9% win probability — nearly identical to Rahm's 6.0%.
Cameron Young Jon Rahm
Rory's Course Fit Leads the Favorites
Rory McIlroy boasts the highest course fit adjustment among any player in the top 10 at +0.158, significantly above Scheffler (+0.098) and Schauffele (+0.096). At +1224 with a 7.5% model win probability and the fourth-best SG Total (+2.11), McIlroy is the top course-specific overlay among chalk plays despite a soft T47 finish in 2025.
Rory McIlroy
Aberg's Missed Cuts Are a Red Flag
Ludvig Aberg carries an elite +1.90 SG Total (fifth in the field), but his PGA Championship history is alarming: missed cuts in both 2024 and 2025. At +2311 with a 4.2% model probability, the raw talent is undeniable, but bettors should tread carefully when a player hasn't proven he can survive the weekend at this major.
Ludvig Aberg
Fitzpatrick Surging Into Major Form
Matt Fitzpatrick posted a T8 at the 2025 PGA Championship and carries a +1.80 SG Total (seventh in the field) at +3135 odds. Our model assigns him a 3.1% win probability, and his methodical game — built on precision iron play — should thrive this week, though his +0.042 course fit is modest compared to other contenders.
Matt Fitzpatrick
Cantlay Headlines a Loaded Longshot Tier
Patrick Cantlay at +5425 leads our longshot group with an 18.2% top-10 probability and a +1.51 SG Total. His PGA Championship track record includes a T9 in 2023, and at this price, a top-5 or top-10 wager offers significant expected value for a player with clear top-tier skill metrics.
Patrick Cantlay
Morikawa's Irons Make Him Dangerous
Collin Morikawa ranks third in the field in SG Approach at +0.90 — trailing only Scheffler and Rahm — yet sits at +7563 odds. As a former PGA Championship winner who thrives when iron play is at a premium, Morikawa at this price is a high-upside tournament wager worth a small-unit sprinkle.
Collin Morikawa
Schauffele's Defending Title at Fair Price
Xander Schauffele won the 2024 PGA Championship and carries a solid +1.86 SG Total with elite ball-striking (SG Approach +0.86, 4th in field). At +1845 with a 5.1% model win probability, the defending champion is fairly priced — not a screaming value, but a reliable anchor for any outright portfolio.
Xander Schauffele
Min Woo Lee: Best Risk-Reward Longshot
Min Woo Lee at +5471 offers a 17.2% top-10 probability and a +1.50 SG Total that ranks just behind Patrick Cantlay among longshots. His well-rounded game and aggressive style make him a prime candidate for each-way or top-10 placement bets in a field where bombs-and-wedges players can separate from the pack.
Min Woo Lee
Complete Betting Board
| # | Player | Why They Could Win | Win Odds GolfData API |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Scottie Scheffler
USA - OWGR #1
FAVORITE
|
Three straight runner-up finishes — Masters, Heritage, Miami — and the model still has him at 13.81% to win, more than double the next guy. His +2.87 SG Total leads the field and the course history reads 1-T8-T2 over the last three years. At +624 he's the obvious play, but the real edge is the -115 Top 10 number, which the model's 53.4% backs cleanly. Lock the Top 10, sweat the win. |
+624 |
Tournament History & Odds
20251
2024T8
2023T2
Win+624
Top 5+162
Top 10-115
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): 2 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 2 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 2 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T22 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
13.8%
Top 10 Probability
53.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History—
| |||
| 2 |
Rory McIlroy
USA - OWGR #2
CONTENDER
|
He won the Masters last month and the market has him at +1224 like nothing happened. The course fit adjustment of +0.158 is the largest in this tier, and his +0.94 SG OTT pairs with a venue that historically rewards length off the tee. Course history is solid (T47-T12-T7) but not elite, which is why the price drifted. At a 7.55% model win rate against an implied 7.5%, he's roughly fair — but the Top 5 at +292 is where the value lives. |
+1224 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T47
2024T12
2023T7
Win+1224
Top 5+292
Top 10+156
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T19 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 1 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T46 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): WD
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
7.5%
Top 10 Probability
39.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.16
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 3 |
Jon Rahm
USA - OWGR #20
CONTENDER
|
One competitive start since the Masters (T38) and OWGR has slipped to #20, yet the underlying numbers are still elite: +2.23 SG Total, +0.91 Approach, and a 5.96% model win probability that beats his +1576 implied odds by a healthy margin. The 2025 T8 here is the only course history data point that matters — the T50 and MC are noise from a different swing era. He's the cleanest mispricing in the contender tier. Play the win number. |
+1576 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T8
2024MC
2023T50
Win+1576
Top 5+350
Top 10+180
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T38
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
6.0%
Top 10 Probability
35.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 4 |
Cameron Young
USA - OWGR #3
CONTENDER
|
Two wins in his last nine starts — Miami and THE PLAYERS — plus a T3 at the Masters sandwiched in between. The +0.72 OTT and +0.118 course fit adjustment are both top-tier for this venue, and the model's 5.86% win number is essentially tied with Rahm. Course history is the red flag (T47-T63-MC) but the form arc is undeniable. At +1607 with this trajectory, the Top 10 at +196 is the play. |
+1607 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T47
2024T63
2023MC
Win+1607
Top 5+373
Top 10+196
Recent Form
Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T67 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T10 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): 1 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 35 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T3 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): 1 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T66 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T3 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T52
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
5.9%
Top 10 Probability
33.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.12
Course History—
| |||
| 5 |
Xander Schauffele
USA - OWGR #11
CONTENDER
|
The 2024 PGA champion is back at the venue where he broke through, and the +0.042 course history adjustment quietly leads this tier. His Players Championship 3rd and Valspar T4 in March showed the iron play is humming (+0.86 SG Approach), though the Truist T60 muddies the picture. Model gives him 5.14% to win against a +1845 implied 5.1% — basically fair. The defending major champ angle is real, but there's no edge in the win price. |
+1845 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T28
20241
2023T18
Win+1845
Top 5+409
Top 10+211
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T60 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T12 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T9 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T4 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): 3 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
5.1%
Top 10 Probability
32.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 6 |
Ludvig Aberg
USA - OWGR #15
CONTENDER
|
Six straight top-10s, including a T8 at Truist last week and a T4 at Hilton Head — this is the hottest non-Scheffler stretch in the field. The wrinkle: he's missed the cut here in both prior appearances, and the course history adjustment is blank for a reason. Model still loves him at 4.15% to win versus +2311 implied, driven by a +0.78 SG Approach and +0.099 fit grade. The form trumps the history. Bet the Top 10 at +260. |
+2311 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023NA
Win+2311
Top 5+504
Top 10+260
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T8 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T4 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T21 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T5 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T5 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.2%
Top 10 Probability
27.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History—
| |||
| 7 |
Matt Fitzpatrick
USA - OWGR #4
CONTENDER
|
Back-to-back wins at the Zurich and Heritage, a Valspar title in March, and a runner-up at THE PLAYERS — this is a player in the middle of a career-best stretch, now ranked OWGR #4. The catch is brutal PGA Championship history: MC-MC the last two years and only a single T8 to point to. The +0.76 Approach and +0.4 Around Green numbers travel anywhere, and the 3.09% model win rate beats the +3135 implied. Form over fit. Play him. |
+3135 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T8
2024MC
2023MC
Win+3135
Top 5+606
Top 10+296
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T52 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 1 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 1 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T18 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): 1 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): 2 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T41
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.1%
Top 10 Probability
25.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History—
| |||
| 8 |
Bryson DeChambeau
USA - OWGR #28
CONTENDER
|
The course history is absurd — T2, 2nd, T4 in the last three PGAs, the best three-year run of anyone in the field at this event. He also missed the cut at the Masters in his only 2026 start shown, and the +1.4 SG Total is the weakest of any contender here. The model splits the difference at 2.99% versus +3241 implied, which is roughly fair. The +0.109 course fit and history say bet him; the form says don't. Top 10 at +351 is the compromise. |
+3241 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T2
20242
2023T4
Win+3241
Top 5+697
Top 10+351
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.0%
Top 10 Probability
22.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.11
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 9 |
Tommy Fleetwood
USA - OWGR #6
CONTENDER
|
World #6 priced as a value play at +4432 is the kind of mispricing that wins seasons. The full SG profile is balanced and elite — +0.58 Approach, +0.51 OTT, +0.29 putting — and the course history reads T18-T26-T41 across the last three PGAs. A T5 at Truist last week and a T8 at THE PLAYERS confirm the form is real, and the 20.5% top-10 model number says this number should be closer to +3500. Bet it. |
+4432 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T41
2024T26
2023T18
Win+4432
Top 5+826
Top 10+389
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T5 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T52 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T33 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T10 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T8 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): 49
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.2%
Top 10 Probability
20.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 10 |
Patrick Cantlay
USA - OWGR #30
VALUE
|
Quietly stacking results again: T10 at Truist, T8 at Hilton Head, T12 at Augusta, T7 at Valspar. The +0.69 SG Approach is genuinely elite and the +0.065 course fit adjustment likes the setup, even with a missed cut here in 2025 muddying the history. At +5425 with a 1.81% model win number, he's roughly fairly priced — not a screaming bet, but a defensible top-10 play at +448. |
+5425 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T53
2023T9
Win+5425
Top 5+970
Top 10+448
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T10 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T8 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T7 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
18.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 11 |
Min Woo Lee
USA - OWGR #31
VALUE
|
The course fit number is what jumps out — +0.111, one of the better marks in the field — and he's coming off a T14 at Truist with a T3 in Houston and T6 at Bay Hill earlier this spring. The SG profile is well-rounded without a true elite category, which is why the +5471 price feels honest rather than exploitable. Better as a top-20 play (31.2%) than a winner. |
+5471 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T26
2023T18
Win+5471
Top 5+990
Top 10+482
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T14 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T18 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T60 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T3 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
17.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.11
Course History—
| |||
| 12 |
Chris Gotterup
USA - OWGR #10
VALUE
|
OWGR #10 at +6290 looks juicy on the surface until you dig in: the SG Total of +1.23 is good, not great, and the only PGA Championship start on his résumé is a missed cut in 2024. The course fit adjustment of +0.154 is the best in this group and the recent run (T14, T38, T25, T24, T6) is steady without being threatening. Pass on the outright, consider the top-20 at 27.9%. |
+6290 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023NA
Win+6290
Top 5+1177
Top 10+560
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T14 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T24 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T6 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T56 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
15.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.15
Course History—
| |||
| 13 |
Nicolai Hojgaard
USA - OWGR #29
VALUE
|
Runner-up at Truist last week, runner-up in Houston in March, T6 at Cognizant — the Dane has three top-6 finishes already this season and the +0.59 SG Approach backs up the ball-striking story. Course history is mediocre (T41-T68-T50) but the +0.138 fit adjustment suggests the model sees something the past results don't. At +6415 with a 15.6% top-10 number, the place-market bet at +541 is the play. |
+6415 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T41
2024T68
2023T50
Win+6415
Top 5+1150
Top 10+541
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T2 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T55 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): 2 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T55 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T27 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
15.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.14
Course History—
| |||
| 14 |
Adam Scott
USA - OWGR #46
VALUE
|
The +0.76 SG Approach is the second-best number in this entire batch, and at 45 years old Scott is still hitting his irons like it's 2013. T4 in Miami and a T19 at last year's PGA show the major-week ceiling is intact, though the -0.07 putting mark is the obvious tax. At +7217 he's a reasonable top-20 dart (28.5%) but the outright requires the flat-stick to cooperate for four days, which is asking a lot. |
+7217 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T19
2024MC
2023T29
Win+7217
Top 5+1216
Top 10+563
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T24 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T4 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T24 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T56 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T11
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
15.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 15 |
Rickie Fowler
USA - OWGR #37
VALUE
|
Three top-10s in his last four starts including a T2 at Truist and T8 at Hilton Head — Rickie has quietly found something. The +0.35 putting and +0.41 approach combo is the best balanced profile he's shown in years, and he's back inside OWGR top 40. The catch: career PGA Championship history at this venue is MC-T63-MC, and the +0.014 course history adjustment barely moves the needle. Top-10 ticket at +577 is the spot, not the outright. |
+7235 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T63
2023MC
Win+7235
Top 5+1255
Top 10+577
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T2 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T9 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T8 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T42 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T9
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
14.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 16 |
Sam Burns
USA - OWGR #35
VALUE
|
Best putter in this batch by a mile at +0.63 SG, and the T7 at Augusta proves the major-week game is intact. The concern is the approach number — just +0.23, which is pedestrian for a PGA Championship contender, and the irons need to show up at this level of test. The +0.108 fit number is encouraging and the +7235 price is fair given a 1.36% win equity. Lean top-20 over outright. |
+7235 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T19
2024MC
2023MC
Win+7235
Top 5+1271
Top 10+603
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T7 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
14.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.11
Course History—
| |||
| 17 |
Collin Morikawa
USA - OWGR #5
VALUE
|
Two-time major champion with a T4 at this event in 2024 and a T7 at Augusta last month — Morikawa's major-week pedigree is a different conversation than the +7563 price suggests. The +0.9 SG Approach leads this group and pairs with +0.5 off the tee, giving him the ball-striking profile that wins PGAs. The putter (-0.02) is the only thing holding him back from being priced 30 spots higher. At this number, he's a value play. |
+7563 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T50
2024T4
2023T26
Win+7563
Top 5+1225
Top 10+570
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T62 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T4 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T7 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): 5
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
14.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History—
| |||
| 18 |
Si Woo Kim
USA - OWGR #22
VALUE
|
T8 here in 2025 is the only made cut in three tries at this event, so the course history sell is thin despite the recent finish. What's intriguing is the +1.51 SG Total backed by a T4 in Miami and a 3rd at Hilton Head in April — the game is sharp, just not specifically tailored to this venue. The -0.069 course fit adjustment confirms the model's skepticism. At +7795, it's a fade for me. |
+7795 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T8
2024MC
2023MC
Win+7795
Top 5+1314
Top 10+591
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T65 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T4 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 3 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 47 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T10 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T7 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T50 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T42 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T13 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
14.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 19 |
J.J. Spaun
USA - OWGR #8
VALUE
|
He won at Valero in April and just posted T5 at Truist — that's the profile of a player whose number should be shorter than +8153. OWGR #8 with +0.82 SG Approach and a recent victory is exactly the type the market sleeps on at a major. The 2023 MC and T37 last year here are the drag, but his current ball-striking form is materially better than those visits. Worth a small ticket for top-20 at +27.5% implied. |
+8153 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T37
2024NA
2023MC
Win+8153
Top 5+1350
Top 10+605
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T5 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T14 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): 1 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T24 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
14.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 20 |
Viktor Hovland
USA - OWGR #27
VALUE
|
T2 at this event in 2023 and 3rd in 2024 — Hovland's PGA Championship resume is genuinely elite, and the +0.01 course fit adjustment confirms the venue suits him. The problem is the form: T31, T38, T42, T18 in his last four, with the SG Approach down to +0.61. He's the rare longshot where the history screams value but the current trajectory says wait. At +8280 I'd rather watch. |
+8280 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T28
20243
2023T2
Win+8280
Top 5+1359
Top 10+612
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T31 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T18 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
14.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 21 |
Russell Henley
USA - OWGR #9
VALUE
|
T3 at the Masters last month is the headline, and the +0.33 SG Around Green plus +0.28 putting give him the short game to survive a major setup. Two missed cuts in three tries at this event is the obvious red flag, and the -0.067 course fit adjustment isn't doing him any favors. OWGR #9 at +8351 is a fair price, not a bargain — the Augusta finish already got baked in. Pass on the outright, consider top-20. |
+8351 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T23
2023MC
Win+8351
Top 5+1413
Top 10+630
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T49 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T3 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
13.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History—
| |||
| 22 |
Robert MacIntyre
USA - OWGR #12
VALUE
|
Runner-up at Valero and 4th at THE PLAYERS in his last six starts — there's a major-week ceiling here, and the +0.044 course fit adjustment is the second-best in this batch. The +0.54 SG Putting leads the group, which matters on slick major greens. The concern is the +0.07 SG Approach, which is well below the rest of this tier and a tough profile to win a PGA with. At +8533, top-10 at +608 is the better bet than the outright. |
+8533 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T47
2024T8
2023MC
Win+8533
Top 5+1343
Top 10+608
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T60 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T2 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): 4 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
14.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History—
| |||
| 23 |
Kurt Kitayama
USA - OWGR #34
VALUE
|
T9-T8 in his last two starts at Miami and Hilton Head, and the +0.056 course fit adjustment is among the best in this batch — Kitayama quietly fits this event better than his OWGR #34 suggests. The +0.74 SG Approach backs up the iron-play story, and he posted T4 here back in 2023. The 69.7% make-cut number is the lowest of this group, which is the risk with the all-or-nothing profile. Live longshot at +8646. |
+8646 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T26
2023T4
Win+8646
Top 5+1528
Top 10+707
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T19 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T9 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T8 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 51 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T60 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
12.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History—
| |||
| 24 |
Maverick McNealy
USA - OWGR #33
VALUE
|
The +0.098 course fit adjustment is the best mark in this entire batch, and it's not particularly close — the model thinks this venue genuinely suits his game. The catch is the +0.16 SG Approach, which is the worst iron number in this tier and a real problem at a PGA Championship. Seven straight made cuts with finishes between T13 and T37 paint him as a steady top-30 type, not a winner. At +9409 the outright is a pass, but top-20 at +25.2% has merit. |
+9409 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T33
2024T23
2023MC
Win+9409
Top 5+1457
Top 10+672
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T18 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T21 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
13.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History—
| |||
| 25 |
Brooks Koepka
USA - OWGR #125
VALUE
|
Five-time major winner, three-time PGA champion, and the defending logic says you can never fully fade him in this event — he won here in 2023 and has the +0.52 SG Approach to suggest the ball-striking is back. The -0.19 putter is the problem, and at +9593 with just a 1.03% model win number, you're betting on major-week Brooks showing up cold. T11 at Myrtle Beach last week is a pulse, not a heater. Top-20 ticket at 23.4% is the more honest play. |
+9593 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T26
20231
Win+9593
Top 5+1586
Top 10+741
Recent Form
Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T11 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T18 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T9
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
11.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 26 |
Justin Thomas
USA - OWGR #16
VALUE
|
Two-time PGA champion with the best course fit adjustment in this batch at +0.107, and the +1.08 SG Total is genuinely elite — JT has every ingredient except a recent result that screams major contender. 13th at Truist and T8 at THE PLAYERS are fine, but T41 at Augusta and a missed cut at Bay Hill tell you the consistency isn't there. At +9768 with a 1.01% win probability, the price is fair, not generous. Top-10 at +741 is the better angle. |
+9768 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T8
2023T65
Win+9768
Top 5+1611
Top 10+741
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): 13 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T77 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T30 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T8 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
11.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.11
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 27 |
Justin Rose
USA - OWGR #7
VALUE
|
World No. 7 and coming off a T3 at the Masters where he nearly stole a second green jacket in a playoff — that's the kind of major-week ceiling that justifies a longshot ticket. The +0.077 course history adjustment is one of the strongest marks in this batch (T6 in '24, T9 in '23), and the +0.47 SG Approach travels to any venue. T45 at Truist is a yellow flag, but at +9950 with a 67.6% make-cut number, the top-10 at +786 has real value. |
+9950 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T6
2023T9
Win+9950
Top 5+1754
Top 10+786
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T45 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T65 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T3 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
11.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.08
| |||
| 28 |
Jordan Spieth
USA - OWGR #51
VALUE
|
The career grand slam chase is the storyline every year, and the +0.97 SG Total plus +0.21 putting suggest the tools are sharper than the +10482 price implies. Problem is Spieth has never finished better than T29 at this event in three years, and the -0.03 course history adjustment confirms the PGA Championship is his worst major fit. Recent form is steady but unspectacular — T12 at Augusta, T11 at Valspar, T18 at Miami. Top-20 at 23.6% is the realistic ceiling, not the trophy. |
+10482 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T43
2023T29
Win+10482
Top 5+1655
Top 10+747
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T52 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T18 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T63 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T11 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T11
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
11.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 29 |
Hideki Matsuyama
USA - OWGR #17
VALUE
|
The +0.55 SG Approach is the best mark in this batch and second-best among all longshots, which is exactly the skill that wins major championships. T12 at the Masters confirmed the ball-striking is there, but the OWGR No. 17 has never cracked the top 25 at this event in his career — three straight finishes of T29 or worse. At +10519, you're paying for the iron play and hoping the putter (+0.14) holds up. Top-10 at +751 is the more defensible bet. |
+10519 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T35
2023T29
Win+10519
Top 5+1690
Top 10+751
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): 71 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T53 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T21 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T27 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T41
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
11.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 30 |
Tyrrell Hatton
USA - OWGR #26
VALUE
|
T3 at the Masters last month is the only recent data point we have, and it was a genuine contention-level performance from a player whose +0.93 SG Total and +0.50 SG Approach travel to any venue. The PGA Championship history is mixed (T15 in '23, T60s the last two years) and the +0.001 course history adjustment is essentially neutral. At +10909 with an 11.2% top-10 number, this is a top-20 play (22.7%) more than a trophy bet — the temperament still works against him in majors. |
+10909 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T60
2024T63
2023T15
Win+10909
Top 5+1802
Top 10+792
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
11.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 31 |
Thomas Detry
USA - OWGR #61
VALUE
|
T4 at this event in 2024 is the hook, and the +0.077 course fit adjustment is the second-strongest mark in this batch — the model sees a player whose game travels to PGA Championship venues. The +0.37 SG Putting leads this group, which is unusual for Detry and a real edge if it holds. No recent form data is a concern, but at +13145 with a 10.2% top-10 number, the price more than accounts for the uncertainty. Live top-20 ticket. |
+13145 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T4
2023T40
Win+13145
Top 5+2032
Top 10+883
Recent Form
—
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
10.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.08
Course History—
| |||
| 32 |
Joaquin Niemann
USA - OWGR #167
VALUE
|
T8 at this event in 2025 is the freshest course history data point in this batch, and the +0.68 SG Off the Tee is elite — Niemann hits it as far and as straight as anyone in the field. The -0.15 putter is the recurring problem that's kept him from converting LIV form into major results, and OWGR No. 167 reflects how little official-world-ranking credit he gets. At +13174, the win number (0.75%) is light but the top-20 at 20.3% is genuinely live. |
+13174 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T8
2024T39
2023MC
Win+13174
Top 5+2121
Top 10+917
Recent Form
—
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
9.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History—
| |||
| 33 |
Keegan Bradley
USA - OWGR #32
VALUE
|
The defending Ryder Cup captain has quietly logged three straight made cuts at this event — T8 in 2025, T18 in 2024, T29 in 2023 — and the +0.049 course fit adjustment confirms the eye test. At +13414 with a 0.74% model win number and a 10.2% top-10, the price isn't egregious but it's not screaming value either. Recent form (T19 at Truist, T12 at Heritage, T21 Masters) is steady without being threatening. Worth a top-20 sprinkle at +21000 implied, not a winner ticket. |
+13414 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T8
2024T18
2023T29
Win+13414
Top 5+2050
Top 10+884
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T19 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T49 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T12 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T21 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T55 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T50 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
10.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 34 |
David Puig
USA - OWGR #62
VALUE
|
The LIV import has the best course fit adjustment in this batch at +0.144, and the +0.54 SG Off the Tee leads the group by a healthy margin. Problem: there's zero recent PGA Tour form to verify, his -0.05 SG Approach is a red flag at a major, and prior course history is MC/T60. At +13661 you're paying for raw distance and model projection, not proof. Hard pass on the win, marginal interest in a placement sprinkle. |
+13661 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T60
2024MC
2023NA
Win+13661
Top 5+2100
Top 10+943
Recent Form
—
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
9.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.14
Course History—
| |||
| 35 |
Patrick Reed
USA - OWGR #24
VALUE
|
T12 at the Masters last month is a reminder that Reed still shows up in majors, and the +0.47 SG Approach is the second-best mark in this entire batch. He's logged a T18 here in 2023 and a T53 in 2024, so the course doesn't scare him. The 70% make-cut projection is the highest in this group, and at +13693 with a 23% top-20 number, he's a defensible top-20 play. Win equity is thin but the placement math works. |
+13693 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T53
2023T18
Win+13693
Top 5+1900
Top 10+824
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
10.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 36 |
Alex Smalley
USA - OWGR #78
VALUE
|
Riding one of the hottest stretches in this batch — runner-up at the Zurich, T7 in Miami, T17 at Truist last week — Smalley is playing the best golf of his career at exactly the wrong price point. The +0.46 SG Approach plus +0.31 off the tee is a legit major-week profile, and the T28/T23 course history shows he can survive the test. At +14323 the win number (0.69%) is light, but the +1029 top-10 is where the value lives. Top-20 ticket all day. |
+14323 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T28
2024MC
2023T23
Win+14323
Top 5+2398
Top 10+1029
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T17 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T7 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T2 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T14 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T46 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T24 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T52
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History—
| |||
| 37 |
Sepp Straka
USA - OWGR #13
LONGSHOT
|
The +0.59 SG Approach is the best mark in this entire batch and one of the best in the field, period. The catch: back-to-back missed cuts at this event in 2024 and 2025, which is why a top-15 OWGR player is sitting at +15943. Recent form is mixed (T4 Miami, T8 Players, but T63 Truist last week and an MC at Valero). The iron play justifies a top-10 swing at +1034 even if the course history says fade the outright. |
+15943 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023T7
Win+15943
Top 5+2355
Top 10+1034
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T63 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T4 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T8 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History—
| |||
| 38 |
Harris English
USA - OWGR #21
LONGSHOT
|
Runner-up at this championship in 2025 and it's still not getting respect — +16073 for a guy who finished T2 here twelve months ago is wild. The +0.43 SG Putting leads this batch, the 68.2% make-cut is the second-highest in the group, and T4 at Heritage last month confirms the game is sharp. The +0.024 course fit adjustment understates what the actual results say. This is the best outright value in the batch. |
+16073 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T2
2024T18
2023MC
Win+16073
Top 5+2231
Top 10+958
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T24 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T55 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T4 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T30 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
9.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History—
| |||
| 39 |
Jacob Bridgeman
USA - OWGR #19
LONGSHOT
|
The +0.47 SG Putting is elite and the +0.074 course fit adjustment is the second-strongest in this batch, but the résumé is thin — an MC here in 2025 is the only major data point, and recent form (T52 Truist, T65 Miami, T33 Heritage) is trending the wrong direction. The T5 at Players in March is the lone spike. At +17291 with a 0.57% win projection, the model isn't buying it either. Fade the outright, maybe nibble a top-30. |
+17291 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+17291
Top 5+2546
Top 10+1089
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T52 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T65 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T14 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T5 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History—
| |||
| 40 |
Kristoffer Reitan
USA - OWGR #25
LONGSHOT
|
Won the Truist Championship last week and followed a T2 at the Zurich and T10 at Valero — that's three top-10s in his last five starts including a victory. Zero course history and zero major experience is the obvious hesitation, but the +0.57 SG Off the Tee leads this batch and the +0.062 course fit grade likes the setup. At +17495 you're betting the heater carries into his first PGA, which is a real ask — but the top-20 at 18.4% has actual juice. Placement play, not an outright. |
+17495 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+17495
Top 5+2413
Top 10+1051
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): 1 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T14 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T2 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T10 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T66 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T17
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History—
| |||
| 41 |
Ben Griffin
USA - OWGR #14
LONGSHOT
|
OWGR #14 with a 3rd-place finish in Miami and a T8 here in 2025 — that's a legitimate major résumé building in real time. The 1.06 SG Total is among the best in this batch, anchored by a +0.52 putter and +0.31 around the green that travels to any setup. The T63 at Truist last week is a yellow flag, but at +17651 with a 9.5% top-10 number, the place-market tickets (+954 for top 10) are where the value lives, not the outright. |
+17651 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T8
2024WD
2023MC
Win+17651
Top 5+2275
Top 10+954
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T63 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): 3 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T10 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T33 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
9.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History—
| |||
| 42 |
Alex Noren
USA - OWGR #18
LONGSHOT
|
Quietly OWGR #18 with a +0.41 SG Approach and zero missed cuts in his last seven starts, capped by a T7 in Miami. Course history reads T17-T12 in the last two years here, which matters more than the headline +17704 suggests. The issue is ceiling — Noren grinds top-25s, he doesn't win majors. Pass the outright, play the top-20 at 18.5% implied for a sneaky-fair price. |
+17704 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T17
2024T12
2023MC
Win+17704
Top 5+2484
Top 10+1084
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T31 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T7 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T65 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T30 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T30 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 43 |
Gary Woodland
USA - OWGR #47
LONGSHOT
|
Already a major champion and already a winner in 2026 — that Houston Open trophy in March changes the conversation. The +0.52 SG Off-the-Tee is the standout skill in this batch and historically travels well to PGA setups, and the T8 at Harbour Town plus T17 at Truist confirm the form is real. Course history is ugly (MC-T60-MC), which is why he's +18027. Worth a small ticket given the win-equity is genuine. |
+18027 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T60
2023MC
Win+18027
Top 5+2581
Top 10+1132
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T17 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T8 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T33 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): 1 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T14 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 44 |
Harry Hall
USA - OWGR #57
LONGSHOT
|
T8 at the Truist last week and a +0.097 course-fit adjustment that's the highest in this batch — the model is screaming at you. The 1.01 SG Total and +0.52 putter make him a legitimate contender at any setup that rewards short-game wizardry, and the T19 here in 2025 in his first look is encouraging. At +18137 with 67% to make the cut and a 19.6% top-20, this is the longshot in this group worth a real swing. |
+18137 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T19
2024NA
2023NA
Win+18137
Top 5+2480
Top 10+1028
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T8 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T65 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T9
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History—
| |||
| 45 |
Akshay Bhatia
USA - OWGR #23
LONGSHOT
|
API winner in March and a T13 at THE PLAYERS — when Bhatia's iron play shows up (+0.42 SG Approach), he's one of the more dangerous young players in the field. The problem is two straight missed cuts at this championship and a Masters MC last month suggest majors aren't yet his thing. The +0.07 course-fit adjustment helps the case marginally. At +18305 the outright is a stretch; the top-10 at 8.7% is the more honest play. |
+18305 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023NA
Win+18305
Top 5+2524
Top 10+1053
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): 1
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
8.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History—
| |||
| 46 |
Shane Lowry
USA - OWGR #38
LONGSHOT
|
A +0.59 SG Approach is the strongest iron number in this batch and the kind of skill that wins major championships — Lowry already has one to prove it. T6 and T12 in the last two years at this event before the 2025 MC, and the recent form is steady if unspectacular (T23 in Miami, T30 at Augusta). The +20378 price reflects the cold putter (+0.14) more than the ball-striking. A live underdog if the flatstick wakes up; otherwise capped at top-20. |
+20378 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T6
2023T12
Win+20378
Top 5+2665
Top 10+1102
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T30 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
8.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History—
| |||
| 47 |
Pierceson Coody
USA - OWGR #55
LONGSHOT
|
No major experience and zero rounds at this venue, which is exactly why he's +21561 despite a +0.58 SG Off-the-Tee that ranks among the best in this batch. The T16 at Harbour Town and T24 at Truist show the game is trending, but the -0.13 around-the-green number is a real concern at a PGA setup where scrambling matters. Hard to build a win narrative — the 0.46% model number is honest. Skip the outright, dabble on top-20 at 15.2%. |
+21561 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+21561
Top 5+3317
Top 10+1382
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T24 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): WD • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T55 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
6.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History—
| |||
| 48 |
Jason Day
USA - OWGR #41
LONGSHOT
|
Former PGA champion and the course-history adjustment (+0.021) reflects a guy who's historically known how to navigate major setups, even if the recent results here read MC-T43-MC. The T12 at Augusta last month is the data point that matters — Day's still got one good major week per year in him. The 0.57 SG Total is the weakest in this batch and the recent 68th at Truist is ugly. At +22977 it's a sentimental ticket, not a sharp one. |
+22977 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T43
2023MC
Win+22977
Top 5+2964
Top 10+1266
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): 68 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T6 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T59 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
7.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 49 |
Matt McCarty
USA - OWGR #43
LONGSHOT
|
Five straight made cuts with four top-12s capped by a T10 at the Truist last week — McCarty is quietly playing the best stretch of golf of anyone priced above +25000. The +0.32 SG Putting is the engine, and his OWGR of #43 suggests the market hasn't caught up to where his game actually is. The MC at this venue in 2025 is the obvious red flag, but at +25324 with 6.6% top-10 equity, the place-market price is the play. |
+25324 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+25324
Top 5+3508
Top 10+1412
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T10 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T9 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T10 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T12 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T24 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T39 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T41
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
6.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 50 |
Michael Thorbjornsen
USA - OWGR #63
LONGSHOT
|
The +0.046 course-fit adjustment is one of the better marks in this longshot pool, and the +0.46 SG Off-the-Tee gives him the length profile majors increasingly demand. Problem: the irons (+0.26) and flat (-0.01) are pedestrian for a guy you'd need to gain 8-10 strokes to win a PGA. A T41 here in 2025 as a rookie was respectable, and at +25651 he's a defensible top-20 dart, but the win number is theoretical. |
+25651 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T41
2024NA
2023NA
Win+25651
Top 5+3516
Top 10+1469
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T53 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T13 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T14 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T22 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T33 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
6.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History—
| |||
| 51 |
Alex Fitzpatrick
USA - OWGR #83
LONGSHOT
|
Won the Zurich, finished 4th at the Truist, T9 in Miami before that — Fitzpatrick is on the heater of his career and nobody in betting markets has noticed. The +0.96 SG Total is elite for a +26101 longshot, the +0.43 SG Approach travels to any venue, and the T8 at this PGA in 2025 means he's already proven he can navigate a major setup. This is the longshot of the week. |
+26101 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T8
2024MC
2023MC
Win+26101
Top 5+3252
Top 10+1334
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): 4 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T9 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 1
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
7.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History—
| |||
| 52 |
Ryan Gerard
USA - OWGR #36
LONGSHOT
|
Best iron player in this batch at +0.58 SG Approach, and a T8 at last year's PGA proves the skill set scales to major venues. The recent form has cooled though — T65 at the Truist, T30 in Miami, a March MC at Houston — and the -0.05 putter is a structural problem at a major where putting separates winners from T20s. At +27937, the top-20 number (15.3%) is where the value lives, not the outright. |
+27937 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T8
2024NA
2023NA
Win+27937
Top 5+3558
Top 10+1398
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T65 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 34 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T38 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T27 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T23
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
6.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History—
| |||
| 53 |
Wyndham Clark
USA - OWGR #71
LONGSHOT
|
Former U.S. Open champion priced at +29603 tells you everything about how far the perception has fallen — two missed cuts at this event in 2023 and 2024, plus a T50 last year, and the iron play has flatlined at +0.28. The +0.084 course-fit adjustment is the best in this batch and the only reason to look twice. Until he proves the major game is back, this is a fade at the outright number with maybe a small top-20 sprinkle. |
+29603 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T50
2024MC
2023MC
Win+29603
Top 5+3985
Top 10+1667
Recent Form
Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T20 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T21 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T42
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.3%
Top 10 Probability
5.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.08
Course History—
| |||
| 54 |
Corey Conners
USA - OWGR #50
LONGSHOT
|
Three straight top-26s at the PGA Championship (T12-T26-T19 from 2023-25) make Conners one of the most reliable major performers nobody talks about. The +0.42 SG Approach is the calling card, but the -0.07 course-fit adjustment is a real concern this year and the putter (-0.01) remains the ceiling-killer it's always been. At +30051 the top-20 ticket (13.6% model equity) is the only sensible bet — the win price is a mirage. |
+30051 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T19
2024T26
2023T12
Win+30051
Top 5+3938
Top 10+1665
Recent Form
Truist Championship (May 2026): T31 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T55 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T49 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T14 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T33
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.3%
Top 10 Probability
5.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History—
| |||
| 55 |
Keith Mitchell
USA - OWGR #109
LONGSHOT
|
The +0.56 SG Off-the-Tee is genuinely elite — top-tier bomber profile that travels to any major venue — but Mitchell has missed the cut at this event in both 2024 and 2025 and the -0.12 putter is the reason why. OWGR of #109 also screams the model is rating him higher than reality. At +30203 there's a top-20 case if he catches a hot week with the flat, but the history at this tournament is a hard fade signal. |
+30203 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023T58
Win+30203
Top 5+3792
Top 10+1569
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T55 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T30 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T14 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T46 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T33 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.3%
Top 10 Probability
6.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History-0.01
| |||
Round 1 — 3-Balls
| Grp | Tee Time | Hole | Player 1 | Odds | Player 2 | Odds | Player 3 | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 06:45 | 1 | Ben Griffin | -101 | Alex Fitzpatrick | +128 | Braden Shattuck | +1572 |
| 2 | 06:50 | 10 | Denny McCarthy | +224 | Aldrich Potgieter | +263 | David Puig | +140 |
| 3 | 06:56 | 1 | Francisco Bide | +8379 | Harry Hall | -108 | Ryan Gerard | +113 |
| 4 | 07:01 | 10 | Taylor Pendrith | -108 | William Mouw | +139 | Chris Gabriele | +1542 |
| 5 | 07:07 | 1 | Rico Hoey | +257 | Nicolai Hojgaard | +109 | Johnny Keefer | +316 |
| 6 | 07:12 | 10 | Tom Hoge | +227 | Joaquin Niemann | -172 | Bryce Fisher | +1532 |
| 7 | 07:18 | 1 | Shaun Micheel | +1739 | Garrick Higgo | +147 | Michael Brennan | -118 |
| 8 | 07:23 | 10 | Billy Horschel | +244 | Keith Mitchell | +135 | Ian Holt | +253 |
| 9 | 07:29 | 1 | Y.E. Yang | +559 | Jhonattan Vegas | +213 | Matt McCarty | -112 |
| 10 | 07:34 | 10 | Jason Day | +229 | Gary Woodland | +225 | Sam Burns | +158 |
| 11 | 07:40 | 1 | Lucas Glover | +255 | Stephan Jaeger | +217 | Tom McKibbin | +148 |
| 12 | 07:45 | 10 | Brian Harman | +182 | Cameron Smith | +262 | Wyndham Clark | +171 |
| 13 | 07:51 | 1 | Harris English | +103 | Adrien Saddier | +308 | Dan Brown | +281 |
| 14 | 07:56 | 10 | Patrick Cantlay | +159 | Min Woo Lee | +168 | Sahith Theegala | +317 |
| 15 | 08:02 | 1 | Alex Noren | +185 | Bud Cauley | +231 | Jacob Bridgeman | +188 |
| 16 | 08:07 | 10 | Si Woo Kim | -177 | Derek Berg | +729 | Joe Highsmith | +315 |
| 17 | 08:13 | 1 | Chris Kirk | +270 | Kristoffer Reitan | +138 | Max Greyserman | +222 |
| 18 | 08:18 | 10 | Rickie Fowler | +255 | Bryson DeChambeau | +195 | Ludvig Aberg | +163 |
| 19 | 08:24 | 1 | Padraig Harrington | +697 | Thomas Detry | +137 | Maverick McNealy | +121 |
| 20 | 08:29 | 10 | Tyrrell Hatton | +268 | Brooks Koepka | +261 | Xander Schauffele | +122 |
| 21 | 08:35 | 1 | Ryan Fox | -189 | Kazuki Higa | +259 | Ryan Lenahan | +1367 |
| 22 | 08:40 | 10 | Rory McIlroy | +146 | Jordan Spieth | +373 | Jon Rahm | +162 |
| 23 | 08:46 | 1 | Michael Kim | +139 | Ryo Hisatsune | +106 | Jared Jones | +924 |
| 24 | 08:51 | 10 | Ryan Vermeer | +975 | Daniel Hillier | +107 | Max McGreevy | +136 |
| 25 | 08:57 | 1 | Brandt Snedeker | +116 | Tyler Collet | +603 | Kota Kaneko | +153 |
| 26 | 09:02 | 10 | Mikael Lindberg | +127 | Angel Ayora | +101 | Paul McClure | +1535 |
| 27 | 12:10 | 10 | Michael Block | +1437 | Dustin Johnson | +132 | Rasmus Hojgaard | -101 |
| 28 | 12:15 | 1 | John Parry | +148 | Andrew Novak | +134 | Jordan Gumberg | +495 |
| 29 | 12:21 | 10 | David Lipsky | +127 | Mark Geddes | +3560 | Steven Fisk | -114 |
| 30 | 12:26 | 1 | Ben Polland | +1023 | Kurt Kitayama | -145 | Nico Echavarria | +214 |
| 31 | 12:32 | 10 | Sungjae Im | -103 | Casey Jarvis | +131 | Austin Hurt | +1600 |
| 32 | 12:37 | 1 | Akshay Bhatia | +168 | Michael Thorbjornsen | +198 | Ricky Castillo | +244 |
| 33 | 12:43 | 10 | Andrew Putnam | +122 | Matt Wallace | +112 | Michael Kartrude | +1181 |
| 34 | 12:48 | 1 | Luke Donald | +304 | Stewart Cink | -202 | Jesse Droemer | +1096 |
| 35 | 12:54 | 10 | Martin Kaymer | +240 | Davis Riley | +207 | Elvis Smylie | +164 |
| 36 | 12:59 | 1 | Hideki Matsuyama | +172 | J.J. Spaun | +154 | Max Homa | +317 |
| 37 | 13:05 | 10 | Jimmy Walker | +431 | Jason Dufner | +338 | Haotong Li | -140 |
| 38 | 13:10 | 1 | Russell Henley | -118 | J.T. Poston | +169 | Ben Kern | +1045 |
| 39 | 13:16 | 10 | Nick Taylor | +172 | Jordan Smith | +186 | Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | +254 |
| 40 | 13:21 | 1 | Adam Scott | +132 | Corey Conners | +238 | Daniel Berger | +266 |
| 41 | 13:27 | 10 | Emiliano Grillo | +403 | Patrick Reed | +128 | Pierceson Coody | +176 |
| 42 | 13:32 | 1 | Shane Lowry | +248 | Viktor Hovland | +185 | Collin Morikawa | +177 |
| 43 | 13:38 | 10 | Christiaan Bezuidenhout | +112 | Brian Campbell | +283 | Adam Schenk | +275 |
| 44 | 13:43 | 1 | Tommy Fleetwood | +170 | Robert MacIntyre | +217 | Chris Gotterup | +219 |
| 45 | 13:49 | 10 | Patrick Rodgers | +235 | Sepp Straka | +151 | Marco Penge | +231 |
| 46 | 13:54 | 1 | Keegan Bradley | +282 | Justin Thomas | +262 | Cameron Young | +116 |
| 47 | 14:00 | 10 | Aaron Rai | +118 | Trav Smyth | +357 | Sami Valimaki | +210 |
| 48 | 14:05 | 1 | Justin Rose | +404 | Matt Fitzpatrick | +230 | Scottie Scheffler | +101 |
| 49 | 14:11 | 10 | Garrett Sapp | +4900 | Sam Stevens | -106 | Jayden Schaper | +115 |
| 50 | 14:16 | 1 | Alex Smalley | -150 | Chandler Blanchet | +191 | Zach Haynes | +1656 |
| 51 | 14:22 | 10 | Matti Schmid | +108 | Austin Smotherman | -101 | Timothy Wiseman | +5447 |
| 52 | 14:27 | 1 | Bernd Wiesberger | +201 | Andy Sullivan | +337 | Sudarshan Yellamaraju | +128 |