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// BETTING PREVIEW - JUNE 11-14
RBC Canadian Open
June 11-14, 2026 | Toronto, Ontario, Canada
⛅ Tournament Weather Forecast
Expect partly cloudy skies with highs in the 71F range and breezy conditions up to 18 mph throughout the week. Some rain is possible, making for challenging scoring conditions.
Miller
- Win:Tommy Fleetwood+1324
- Top 5:Robert MacIntyre+756
- Top 10:Aldrich Potgieter+1165
Kevin
- Win:Nick Taylor+7672
- Top 5:Austin Smotherman+2884
- Top 10:Matt Fitzpatrick+193
Andrew
- Win:Aaron Rai+4248
- Top 5:Brooks Koepka+1191
- Top 10:Max Homa+1155
Kcon
- Win:Matt Fitzpatrick+1528
- Top 5:Kristoffer Reitan+648
- Top 10:Eric Cole+542
Parbeh
- Win:TBD-
- Top 5:TBD-
- Top 10:TBD-
JB
- Win:TBD-
- Top 5:TBD-
- Top 10:TBD-
Tommy Fleetwood enters the RBC Canadian Open as our model's top play, ranking #1 in SG Total (+1.84) with a 7.0% modeled win probability against implied odds of just 0.1% — the largest edge in the field. Matt Fitzpatrick is right behind him, combining elite ball-striking (+0.81 SG Approach, tied #1) with the second-best overall profile (+1.78 SG Total) at +1528 odds. At longer prices, Aaron Rai (+4248) profiles as a premier course fit play with the best Course Fit score in the field (+0.307) and top-3 approach numbers, while Sam Burns (+1909) leads all putters at +0.70 SG Putting and carries strong recent history including a runner-up finish in 2025. This is a field where the model sees significant edges across the board, particularly at the top of the board.
Fleetwood Is the Clear Top Play
Tommy Fleetwood leads the field in SG Total (+1.84), carries a +0.227 Course Fit score, and has stellar Canadian Open history (2nd in 2023, T21 in 2024). Our model gives him a 7.0% win probability — the largest edge in the entire field against his +1324 price.
Tommy Fleetwood
Fitzpatrick's Iron Game Dominates
Matt Fitzpatrick ranks tied #1 in SG Approach (+0.81) and #2 in SG Total (+1.78) with a 6.1% modeled win probability at +1528. TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley should reward precision iron play, and Fitzpatrick's +0.205 Course Fit score reinforces the fit.
Matt Fitzpatrick
Sam Burns: Hot Putter, Hot History
Burns leads the entire field in SG Putting (+0.70) while ranking #3 in overall SG Total (+1.46). His Canadian Open history tells a progression story — MC in 2023, T10 in 2024, and runner-up in 2025 — suggesting peak comfort at this event. Our model gives him a 5.0% win probability at +1909.
Sam Burns
Aaron Rai Is the Ultimate Course Fit
Rai owns the field's best Course Fit score (+0.307), ranks #3 in SG Approach (+0.65), and has back-to-back strong Canadian Open finishes (T3 in 2023, T14 in 2024). At +4248, the model sees a 2.3% win probability with significant top-10 upside for a player this price.
Aaron Rai
Morikawa's Price Looks Too Long
Collin Morikawa ranks #4 in SG Total (+1.43) and tied #1 in SG Approach (+0.81) — yet his +3259 odds imply far less probability than our model's 3.0%. He's the best ball-striker in the field sitting at nearly double the price of players with inferior profiles.
Collin Morikawa
Reitan: The Dark Horse Favorite
Kristoffer Reitan may lack name recognition, but his SG Total of +1.23 ranks #5 in the field and our model assigns him a 3.5% win probability at +2765. No Canadian Open history means no course fit adjustment, but his raw skill profile puts him firmly in contention range.
Kristoffer Reitan
Eric Cole: Longshot With Putting Edge
Cole combines a strong SG Total (+0.91) with the #3 putting rank in the field (+0.50 SG Putting) and a 15.6% top-10 probability at +5737. He's an ideal top-10/top-20 target for bettors looking beyond outright markets.
Eric Cole
Hojgaard's History Is a Red Flag
Despite solid overall numbers (SG Total +1.19, #7 in field), Nicolai Hojgaard has a -0.091 Course Fit score and has missed the cut in two of his three Canadian Open starts. At +3478, the model still sees 2.8% edge, but the venue-specific struggles warrant caution.
Nicolai Hojgaard
Shane Lowry: Best Top-10 Longshot Bet
Lowry's 17.9% top-10 probability is the highest among all players priced +5000 or longer, backed by a +0.94 SG Total. At +5172 for an outright, Lowry offers significant each-way value for a proven major champion with consistent weekly production.
Shane Lowry
MacIntyre Returns as a Past Champion
Robert MacIntyre won the 2024 Canadian Open and returns at +3783 with a +0.107 Course Fit and +1.12 SG Total. His putting ranks #6 in the field (+0.46), but a T36 finish in 2025 and a negative-trending form line temper some of the past-champion enthusiasm.
Robert MacIntyre
Complete Betting Board
| # | Player | Why They Could Win | Win Odds GolfData API |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Tommy Fleetwood
USA - OWGR #7
CONTENDER
|
A T4 at Memorial confirms what the model already sees: Fleetwood is rounding into form at the right time. The OWGR #7 carries a 1.84 SG Total with balanced gains across OTT (+0.59), approach (+0.59), and a course fit adjustment of +0.227 that's one of the best in the field. He was runner-up here in 2023, and the 7.02% win equity at +1324 is fair-to-generous given a 37.1% top-10 number. Play him to win or stack the top-10 ticket. |
+1324 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T21
20232
Win+1324
Top 5+319
Top 10+170
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T4 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T5 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T52 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T33 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T10
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
7.0%
Top 10 Probability
37.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.23
Course History-0.04
| |||
| 2 |
Matt Fitzpatrick
USA - OWGR #4
CONTENDER
|
Three wins in his last seven starts — Valspar, Hilton Head, and the Zurich team event — and the market still has him at +1528. The +0.81 SG Approach paces this group of contenders, the +0.205 course fit grade is elite, and his 6.14% model win number translates to roughly +1530 fair odds. OWGR #4 is playing the best golf of anyone in the field not named Fleetwood. This is a lock-it-in outright at the current number. |
+1528 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023T20
Win+1528
Top 5+366
Top 10+193
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T36 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T14 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T52 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 1 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 1 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T18 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): 1
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
6.1%
Top 10 Probability
34.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.20
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 3 |
Sam Burns
USA - OWGR #29
CONTENDER
|
Runner-up here in 2025 and T10 in 2024 — Burns shows up to this event. A T4 at Memorial and T7 at the Masters say the form is real, and the +0.70 SG Putting leads this entire tier by a wide margin. At +1909 with a 4.98% model win number (~+1910 fair), the price is exactly right rather than a steal. Better value on the top-10 at +241 given a 29.3% hit rate. |
+1909 |
Tournament History & Odds
20252
2024T10
2023MC
Win+1909
Top 5+456
Top 10+241
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T4 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T7 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
5.0%
Top 10 Probability
29.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 4 |
Kristoffer Reitan
USA - OWGR #24
CONTENDER
|
Won the Truist, runner-up at the Zurich, T6 at Memorial, T14 in Miami — that's a four-event stretch that vaulted him to OWGR #24 with zero fanfare. The 1.23 SG Total is legit and the +0.59 OTT pops off the page, but with no course history and a slightly negative fit grade (-0.008), there's real uncertainty in the projection. The 3.49% model win number lines up almost exactly with +2765. Top-20 at +37.5% is the cleaner play than the outright. |
+2765 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+2765
Top 5+648
Top 10+336
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T6 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 1 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T14 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T2 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T10 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.5%
Top 10 Probability
22.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 5 |
Wyndham Clark
USA - OWGR #37
CONTENDER
|
Solo 3rd at Memorial and a win at the Byron Nelson — Clark has rediscovered the form that won him a U.S. Open. The +0.52 SG Approach and +0.31 putting are a winning combo, and a 23.0% top-10 number at +334 is where the value sits. The outright at +2840 is fair given the 3.4% model number, but the momentum profile suggests he's underpriced relative to peers in this tier. Worth a sprinkle outright, hammer the top-10. |
+2840 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T59
2024NA
2023NA
Win+2840
Top 5+642
Top 10+334
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 3 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 1 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T20 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T21 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.4%
Top 10 Probability
23.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 6 |
Collin Morikawa
USA - OWGR #10
CONTENDER
|
The +0.81 SG Approach is tied for the best mark in the field, and Morikawa is coming off T4 at Hilton Head and T7 at Augusta before a quieter PGA. No course history is the catch, but a 1.43 SG Total at OWGR #10 priced at +3259 is a clear market discount — the 2.98% model win number implies fair odds closer to +3250, and that ignores the upside of an iron savant getting hot. The putter (+0.04) is the only thing standing between him and a fourth major-caliber week. Outright value play. |
+3259 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+3259
Top 5+678
Top 10+344
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T55 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T62 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T4 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T7
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.0%
Top 10 Probability
22.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 7 |
Justin Rose
USA - OWGR #6
CONTENDER
|
T3 at the Masters, T10 at the PGA, T12 at Memorial — Rose has quietly been one of the steadiest performers in golf at 45 years old. Solo 8th here in 2023 backs up the +0.075 course history adjustment, and the +0.063 fit grade is positive. The +0.61 SG Approach is the engine, but a +0.04 putting mark caps the ceiling. At +3305 with a 2.94% model number, the price is fair but not a gift — lean top-10 at +373 with a 21.1% projection. |
+3305 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
20238
Win+3305
Top 5+726
Top 10+373
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T12 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T10 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T45 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T65 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.9%
Top 10 Probability
21.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History+0.07
| |||
| 8 |
Nicolai Hojgaard
USA - OWGR #32
CONTENDER
|
Runner-up at the Truist and runner-up in Houston earlier this spring show the ceiling, but a missed cut at Memorial and a -0.091 course fit grade are real concerns. Two career missed cuts at this venue ('23 and '25) don't help the case. The 1.19 SG Total and +0.60 approach number are legitimate, but at +3478 the market is paying for the upside without discounting the volatility. Pass on the outright, consider a small top-20 at 35.9%. |
+3478 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T35
2023MC
Win+3478
Top 5+732
Top 10+371
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T2 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T55 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): 2 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T55
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.8%
Top 10 Probability
21.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.09
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 9 |
Robert MacIntyre
USA - OWGR #17
CONTENDER
|
A past champion here — he won the 2024 title — MacIntyre sits at +3783, and the market is clearly worried about a missed cut at Memorial and an MC at the PGA. But the runner-up at Valero in April shows the game is there, the +0.107 course fit adjustment is among the best in this tier, and he's a top-20 player in the world (OWGR #17) returning to a course where he's already won. At 2.57% to win — the highest in this group — he's the cleanest value play on the board. |
+3783 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T36
20241
2023NA
Win+3783
Top 5+756
Top 10+378
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T42 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T60 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.6%
Top 10 Probability
20.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.11
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 10 |
Aaron Rai
USA - OWGR #13
CONTENDER
|
Major champion. The PGA Championship win in May is the headline, and it wasn't a fluke — he backed it up with a solo 5th at Myrtle Beach and a T19 at Memorial. The +0.65 SG Approach is elite, the 0.307 course fit adjustment is the largest in this entire tier, and he has prior finishes of T14 and T3 at this event. At +4248 with a major champion's ceiling and the best course fit in the field, this is a steal. |
+4248 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T14
2023T3
Win+4248
Top 5+809
Top 10+390
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): 1 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): 5 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T24 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 48 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.3%
Top 10 Probability
20.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.31
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 11 |
Alex Noren
USA - OWGR #20
CONTENDER
|
A solo 9th at Memorial is the kind of result that should be moving the number, and it's not. Noren's 1.15 SG Total leads this value tier, the +0.46 SG Putting is a real edge, and he's stacked four straight made cuts at tough venues including a T7 in Miami. The course history (two MCs) is the only blemish, but the 0.203 course fit adjustment suggests the model sees a much better fit than the results indicate. +4491 is fair-to-cheap. |
+4491 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023NA
Win+4491
Top 5+882
Top 10+426
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 9 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T31 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T7 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T65 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T30 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T30
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.2%
Top 10 Probability
19.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.20
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 12 |
Alex Fitzpatrick
USA - OWGR #73
CONTENDER
|
Won the Zurich Classic with Matt, then went T9-4-T6 at Miami, Truist, and Memorial. That's a five-event stretch that's pushed him into legitimate contender territory, and the market still has him at +4636 because the name recognition lags the results. The +0.48 SG Approach and +0.39 SG OTT are a tee-to-green profile that travels anywhere, and a T20 here in 2023 confirms the course fit. Underpriced. |
+4636 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023T20
Win+4636
Top 5+928
Top 10+450
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T6 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T75 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 4 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T9 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 1
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.1%
Top 10 Probability
18.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.14
Course History—
| |||
| 13 |
Bud Cauley
USA - OWGR #68
CONTENDER
|
The comeback story has quietly become a top-70 OWGR player, and the underlying numbers — +0.51 SG Approach, +0.32 SG OTT — are the profile of someone who should be priced shorter than +4712. A solo 7th at Hilton Head in April is the highlight of a stretch with zero missed cuts in seven starts. The lone MC here in 2024 came before he was this version of himself. Fair price with upside if the putter cooperates. |
+4712 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023NA
Win+4712
Top 5+941
Top 10+461
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T22 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 7 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T21 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): 74
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.1%
Top 10 Probability
17.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 14 |
Viktor Hovland
USA - OWGR #33
CONTENDER
|
Classic Hovland trap game. The +0.63 SG Approach and 1.15 SG Total scream contender, but he's missed the cut at the PGA and Valspar in his last six starts and the course history is a complete blank — no prior reps at this venue. The model can't even calculate a course fit adjustment. At +4762 you're paying for the name and the ceiling; the recent form (T31, T38, T42, T18, MC) says fade until he shows something. |
+4762 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+4762
Top 5+965
Top 10+479
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T31 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T18 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.1%
Top 10 Probability
17.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 15 |
Jacob Bridgeman
USA - OWGR #27
CONTENDER
|
The OWGR #27 ranking is doing a lot of heavy lifting here, because the recent form is rough — MC at the PGA, T52 at Truist, T65 in Miami. The +0.36 SG Putting is the one real edge, and a T14 here in 2024 hints at course comfort, but the +0.29 SG Approach is the weakest of any value-tier player. At +4955 with the iron play trending wrong, this is a pass. |
+4955 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T14
2023NA
Win+4955
Top 5+968
Top 10+475
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T34 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T52 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T65 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T14
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.0%
Top 10 Probability
17.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 16 |
Shane Lowry
USA - OWGR #43
VALUE
|
Three straight made cuts at this event (T13, T33, T43) and the +0.60 SG Approach is the kind of profile that ages well at any venue. The problem is the around-the-green number sits at a flat +0.01 and the win equity has been quiet — no top-10s since Houston in March. At +5172 with a 1.9% model win number, he's a fine top-20 play (32.1%) but the outright is a stretch given the lack of a recent ceiling result. |
+5172 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T13
2024T33
2023T43
Win+5172
Top 5+963
Top 10+459
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T22 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T30 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.9%
Top 10 Probability
17.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.12
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 17 |
Brooks Koepka
USA - OWGR #109
VALUE
|
Five LIV-era majors of evidence say Koepka only matters when the lights are brightest, and this isn't that. The +5647 price reflects real signs of life — T12 at the Masters, T14 at Byron Nelson, +0.45 SG Approach — but the T55 at the PGA was the tell, and OWGR #109 isn't a typo. A 1.74% model win number on an unfamiliar track is a pass at this price; there are cleaner LONGSHOTS in this same tier. |
+5647 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+5647
Top 5+1191
Top 10+579
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T14 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T55 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T11 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.7%
Top 10 Probability
14.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 18 |
Eric Cole
USA - OWGR #63
VALUE
|
Solo 2nd at Colonial and a T8 at Memorial is the best two-tournament stretch of Cole's career, and the +5737 number hasn't fully caught up. The profile travels: +0.50 SG Putting, +0.34 around the greens, and a T6 here in 2023 before two missed cuts that the course-fit adjustment (+0.039) is willing to forgive. Model gives him a 15.6% top-10 — that's live value on the outright and even better on the top-10 ticket. |
+5737 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023T6
Win+5737
Top 5+1116
Top 10+542
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 8 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): 2 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T31 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T6 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T6 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T14 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T51 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.7%
Top 10 Probability
15.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 19 |
Keith Mitchell
USA - OWGR #100
VALUE
|
A solo 5th at Byron Nelson is buried under a Colonial MC, but the underlying skill set — +0.62 SG Off-the-Tee, +0.35 Approach — is exactly the bomber profile that's gone T10/T27 here the last two years. The putter (-0.11) is the ceiling cap, which is why +6379 feels about right rather than generous. Top-20 ticket at +400-ish range is the cleaner play than chasing the outright. |
+6379 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T27
2024T10
2023MC
Win+6379
Top 5+1259
Top 10+609
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 5 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T65 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T55 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T30 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T14
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
14.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 20 |
Michael Thorbjornsen
USA - OWGR #74
VALUE
|
Two straight major MCs and the +6457 price suggest the rookie wall is real, but the T16 at Colonial and +0.52 SG Off-the-Tee say the engine is still running. He's a length-and-iron-play prospect with a -0.04 putter, which is a tough archetype to bet outright at any course you don't know — and his only Canadian Open trip was a 2023 MC. The model's 1.52% win number is honest; this is a top-30 DFS dart, not a betting card play. |
+6457 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023MC
Win+6457
Top 5+1319
Top 10+623
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): 16 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T53 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T13 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T14
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
13.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 21 |
Harry Hall
USA - OWGR #66
VALUE
|
The short-game-and-putter package — +0.42 SG Putting, +0.32 around the greens — is the most distinctive profile in this tier, and the T8 at Truist proved it can produce at a real venue. Course history is uninspiring (T24/T42/T34, no top-20s) but the +0.06 course-fit adjustment likes the skill match. At +6726 with a 14.7% top-10 number, the place tickets are where the value lives, not the outright. |
+6726 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T24
2024T42
2023T34
Win+6726
Top 5+1261
Top 10+578
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T29 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T8 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T65 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
14.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History—
| |||
| 22 |
Mac Meissner
USA - OWGR #86
VALUE
|
Quietly stacking results — T3 at Colonial, T9 at Myrtle Beach, T10 at Zurich — and the market still has him at +7307 like it hasn't noticed. The balanced profile (+0.40 Approach, +0.25 around the greens, +0.21 putting) plus a +0.049 course-fit bump is exactly the kind of under-the-radar build that pops on a course without strong history signals. 1.35% win equity at 73-1 is fair-to-slightly-plus; the top-20 at 27.1% is where the edge actually sits. |
+7307 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T57
2023NA
Win+7307
Top 5+1312
Top 10+614
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T46 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T3 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T31 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T9 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T10 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T30 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
14.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History—
| |||
| 23 |
Nick Taylor
USA - OWGR #62
VALUE
|
The 2023 champion at this event is sitting at +7672, which is genuinely strange — even accounting for the T13/MC follow-ups, the +0.177 course-fit adjustment is the largest in this tier by a wide margin. Form is steady rather than spectacular (T9 Miami, T14 Truist, T26 PGA), and the +0.34 SG Approach holds up. This is the cleanest outright value of the group; the price should be closer to +5500 given the history and fit combo. |
+7672 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T13
2024MC
20231
Win+7672
Top 5+1323
Top 10+618
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T43 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T14 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T9 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T60 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T28 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
13.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.18
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 24 |
Tony Finau
USA - OWGR #111
VALUE
|
Hard to find the win path when the SG Total has slipped to +0.55 and OWGR #111 reflects two years of drift from a guy who used to live in the top 20. The T6 at Byron Nelson is the only top-10 since March, and the -0.068 course-fit adjustment is actively negative. At +7879 you're betting on name recognition and the +0.069 course-history nudge from one good week years ago — pass on the outright, and the top-10 at +698 isn't paying enough for a 12.5% model number. |
+7879 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+7879
Top 5+1466
Top 10+698
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T29 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T6 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T31 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 82 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T49 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T39 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
12.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History+0.07
| |||
| 25 |
Michael Brennan
USA - OWGR #55
VALUE
|
OWGR #55 with no PGA Tour course history anywhere on his profile, and yet the T6 at Colonial confirms the underlying skill set is real. The +0.88 SG Off-the-Tee is the elite trait here, and pairing that with a model 11.8% Top 10 number at +8164 is defensible if you believe the 81 at the PGA Championship was just a major-week blowup rather than a referendum on the game. Worth a small outright; better as a top-20 play at +22.6% implied. |
+8164 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+8164
Top 5+1562
Top 10+748
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T6 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): 81 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T24 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
11.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 26 |
Sahith Theegala
USA - OWGR #83
VALUE
|
The most balanced SG profile in this group — positive across approach (+0.22), around the green (+0.23), and putting (+0.16) — and a +0.026 course fit adjustment on top of a T38 here in 2023. Problem is the form: nothing better than T24 since March and a 69th at Truist. At +8484 you're paying for the ceiling of a guy who won at Napa, not the floor of a guy grinding to T32 at Memorial. Pass on the outright, consider the +708 top 10. |
+8484 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023T38
Win+8484
Top 5+1516
Top 10+708
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T32 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T60 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T60 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 69 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T24 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T10 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
12.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History+0.05
| |||
| 27 |
Jordan Smith
USA - OWGR #71
VALUE
|
The solo 3rd at Valspar is the anchor result that justifies any look here, and the +0.42 SG Approach backs it up as repeatable. The issue is everything since — MC at the PGA, MC at Zurich, T59 at Byron Nelson — and a -0.23 putter that caps the ceiling on any week the irons cool off. The T13 at Colonial is a positive signal, but +9188 with zero course history and a non-existent short game is a stab, not a stand. |
+9188 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9188
Top 5+1558
Top 10+729
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T13 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T59 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T55 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T44 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): 3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
12.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 28 |
Ryan Fox
USA - OWGR #60
VALUE
|
Defending champion. That alone should have your attention at +9334, and the T7 in 2024 confirms this isn't a one-off course fluke. The form is muddy — T27 at Memorial is fine, the 67 at Truist is not — and the model only gives him a 1.06% win number, but the course history adjustment and the simple fact that he's already proven he can win this exact tournament makes him one of the most defensible longshot outrights on the board. |
+9334 |
Tournament History & Odds
20251
2024T7
2023NA
Win+9334
Top 5+1550
Top 10+721
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T27 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 67 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
12.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.11
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 29 |
Rico Hoey
USA - OWGR #88
VALUE
|
Eight straight made cuts with a tidy range of T17 to T60, and the +0.58 SG Off-the-Tee is a legitimate trait that travels. The T36 here in 2025 was nothing special, and the -0.12 putter is the reason the model's 1.03% win number is what it is. At +9640 you're betting on a guy who hasn't finished better than T17 since March — the +788 top 10 is a more honest expression of what he actually is right now. |
+9640 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T36
2024MC
2023NA
Win+9640
Top 5+1699
Top 10+788
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T17 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T60 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T53 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T26 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T39 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T26
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
11.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 30 |
Taylor Pendrith
USA - OWGR #94
VALUE
|
Canadian, T21 and T27 in his last two starts here, and the home-country factor will inflate his ticket count regardless of what the numbers say. The numbers don't say much — +0.47 SG Total is the weakest in this group, the model gives him 1.01%, and he hasn't sniffed a top-30 since March. Fade at +9817 unless you specifically need the narrative; the market is pricing the flag, not the form. |
+9817 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T27
2024T21
2023T65
Win+9817
Top 5+1786
Top 10+823
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T43 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T47 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T71 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
10.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.06
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 31 |
Davis Thompson
USA - OWGR #134
VALUE
|
OWGR #134 is misleading — the underlying SG Total of +0.66 and +0.33 approach number are top-half-of-the-field metrics, and the T6 at Zurich plus T14 at Valero Texas Open show the game is rounding into shape. MC here in 2024 is a small concern, and the MC at Byron Nelson is a flag, but at +9867 with a real approach game you're getting paid for variance. Better as a +806 top-10 dart than an outright. |
+9867 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023NA
Win+9867
Top 5+1742
Top 10+806
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T13 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T6 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T14 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T46
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
11.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 32 |
Corey Conners
USA - OWGR #54
VALUE
|
Canadian with a 6th and a T20 on his ledger at this event, plus the largest course fit adjustment in this batch at +0.181 — the profile screams contender, and yet he's the longest price of the group at +10227. The reason: +0.45 SG Total is pedestrian, the putter sits at -0.07, and nothing in the recent form (53 at Memorial, T55 at the PGA, T55 at Hilton Head) suggests the irons are sharp enough to overcome it. Course-fit dart only — the price is right, the form is wrong. |
+10227 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T27
20246
2023T20
Win+10227
Top 5+1734
Top 10+787
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 53 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T55 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T31 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T55 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T49 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T14
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
11.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.18
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 33 |
Doug Ghim
USA - OWGR #181
VALUE
|
A T6 at the Zurich Classic team event is the recent-form highlight, but the real selling point at +10538 is the T12 here in 2023 paired with a +0.37 SG Approach and +0.41 off the tee. The -0.28 putting number is the obvious anchor and why the 0.94% model win equity feels generous. Make-cut equity at 63.7% means he's a defensible matchup play, not a serious outright. |
+10538 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024WD
2023T12
Win+10538
Top 5+1818
Top 10+829
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T28 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T31 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T19 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T6 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T30 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T40
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
10.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 34 |
Sudarshan Yellamaraju
USA - OWGR #110
VALUE
|
OWGR #110 with a T6 at the Houston Open and a T14 at Valero on the ledger, which is a stronger résumé than the +11052 number implies. The skill profile is one-dimensional though — +0.45 SG Off-the-Tee with a flat 0.04 approach and 0.04 putting, so the ceiling caps out around a top-20. Model agrees at 21.3%. Build him into mid-tier DFS lineups, skip the outright. |
+11052 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+11052
Top 5+1857
Top 10+847
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T40 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T19 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 34 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T52 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T14 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
10.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.00
Course History—
| |||
| 35 |
Max Greyserman
USA - OWGR #67
VALUE
|
Three runner-ups across the last two seasons and an OWGR of 67 say this is the most accomplished player in this batch, and the T9 at Byron Nelson plus T14 at the PGA Championship confirm the form is live. The all-around profile (+0.18 approach, +0.14 ARG, +0.16 putting) is the kind that travels to any setup. At +11573 with a 9.1% top-10 number, the place markets are where the value lives, not the outright. |
+11573 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023NA
Win+11573
Top 5+2144
Top 10+1001
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T9 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T14 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T31 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
9.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 36 |
Steven Fisk
USA - OWGR #118
VALUE
|
A T10 at Colonial and a T12 at Hilton Head are two legitimate results in a five-start window, and the +0.21 putter is the rare hot flatstick in this tier. The -0.02 approach number is the problem — you can't win a PGA Tour event gaining nothing with the irons, which is why the 0.78% model win number is fair. T43 here in 2025 isn't moving the needle either. Top-20 ticket only at +12748. |
+12748 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T43
2024NA
2023NA
Win+12748
Top 5+2224
Top 10+997
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T10 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T12 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T54 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T48 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
9.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 37 |
Tom Kim
USA - OWGR #152
VALUE
|
The T4 at this event in 2024 is the entire reason to look at +13536, and the +0.39 SG Approach says the iron play is finally trending back. Problem is everything around it — back-to-back T54s at Colonial and Byron Nelson, two missed cuts in April, and an OWGR that's cratered to 152. This is a name-recognition price on a player whose form doesn't justify it. Fade the outright, consider him in 3-balls only. |
+13536 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T4
2023NA
Win+13536
Top 5+2186
Top 10+977
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T54 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T54 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T6 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T56 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
9.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 38 |
Andrew Putnam
USA - OWGR #84
VALUE
|
T6 at this venue in 2025 and a T5 at Valero in April make him one of the more interesting course-history plays in the longshot tier. The +0.41 SG Around the Green and +0.32 putting are elite short-game numbers that fit a track where scrambling matters. The -0.45 off the tee is the obvious cap on the ceiling, which is why the 9.8% top-10 is the bet rather than the +13952 outright. |
+13952 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T6
2024NA
2023NA
Win+13952
Top 5+2168
Top 10+924
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T17 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T55 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T18 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T5 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T44 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T30
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
9.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 39 |
Aldrich Potgieter
USA - OWGR #80
VALUE
|
Leads this entire batch in SG Off-the-Tee at +0.58, and the T14 at Miami plus T35 at the PGA Championship show the power game is translating against real fields. The issue is the short game — -0.28 around the green and -0.12 putting drag the SG Total down to just +0.23, the worst of this group. Zero course history and a 55.8% make-cut number make +14084 a pass. |
+14084 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14084
Top 5+2508
Top 10+1165
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T48 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T14 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
7.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 40 |
Ricky Castillo
USA - OWGR #97
VALUE
|
A balanced but unspectacular skill profile — +0.10 in three of four SG categories — is the kind of even-keel game that grinds out cuts without ever sniffing a Sunday lead. Recent form backs that up: T42, T60, T55, T60 across his last four individual starts with zero top-30s. Missed the cut here in 2025 too. At +14393, there's no edge anywhere on the card. |
+14393 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14393
Top 5+2321
Top 10+1010
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T42 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T60 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T55 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T60 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T44 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T46
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
9.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 41 |
Taylor Moore
USA - OWGR #145
VALUE
|
Four made cuts in his last five starts including a T14 at Byron Nelson and a T17 at Myrtle Beach is the quiet momentum case here, even if the +14606 price reflects how thin the ceiling looks. The skill profile is bland — +0.19 OTT and a negative iron number — but he's posted made cuts in both prior trips to this venue (T60 in 2024, T25 in 2023). A live top-20 ticket at 16.7%, not a win bet. |
+14606 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T60
2023T25
Win+14606
Top 5+2640
Top 10+1167
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T60 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T14 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T17 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T20 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T39 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
7.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 42 |
Max Homa
USA - OWGR #117
VALUE
|
The T9 at the Masters is the only result on his card that suggests the old Homa is still in there — everything else is a mix of MCs and T50s, including a missed cut at the PGA. SG Approach sits at -0.04 and that's the entire problem; the +0.27 putter is doing all the heavy lifting. At +14715 you're paying for name equity, not form. Fade at the outright number, leave him alone in top-10 markets too. |
+14715 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14715
Top 5+2580
Top 10+1155
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T22 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T52 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T69 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T9 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 43 |
Johnny Keefer
USA - OWGR #77
VALUE
|
Best OWGR in this group at #77 and the field-leading +0.47 SG Off-the-Tee in this batch give him a real skill foundation, backed by a T3 at Houston in March and a T9 at Byron Nelson. The short game is the problem — -0.30 around the green and -0.18 putting drag the total down to just +0.22. At +14788 with a 7.5% top-10, he's a more defensible top-20 dart (16.0%) than an outright play. |
+14788 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14788
Top 5+2664
Top 10+1229
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T9 • PGA Championship (May 2026): 79 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T31 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T69 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T3 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
7.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 44 |
Zach Bauchou
USA - OWGR #155
LONGSHOT
|
Highest SG Total in this batch at +0.47 and the model agrees, giving him the best make-cut number of the group at 59.9%. A T6 at Byron Nelson and T13 at Zurich anchor a quietly solid five-start stretch, and the +0.34 SG Approach is the kind of number that travels to any course. No history here at all, but at +15013 with an 8.3% top-10, the placement markets are where the value lives. |
+15013 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+15013
Top 5+2512
Top 10+1098
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T22 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T6 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T24 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T13 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T28 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 45 |
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
USA - OWGR #82
LONGSHOT
|
The T4 at Zurich is the headline result, and pairing it with +0.45 SG Off-the-Tee and +0.45 SG Total makes him one of the more interesting unknowns at +15285. OWGR #82 with no course history is the obvious caveat, but the model's 18.1% top-20 and 60.1% make-cut numbers are the best in this batch. Top-20 is the bet — the outright is a lottery ticket against a debut profile. |
+15285 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+15285
Top 5+2342
Top 10+1055
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T42 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T75 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): MC • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T4 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T55
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 46 |
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
USA - OWGR #96
LONGSHOT
|
The field-leading +0.59 SG Total in this group is the whole story, driven by an unusual +0.40 putting number for a player priced this deep. A T6 at Myrtle Beach and T17 at Zurich are real, and the model rewards him with a 19.6% top-20 and 9.1% top-10 — both best in this batch. At +15566 with no course history, he's the sharpest top-10 placement play of the longshots. |
+15566 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+15566
Top 5+2331
Top 10+997
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T32 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T6 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T17 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T39 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T51 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T30
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
9.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 47 |
Matt Wallace
USA - OWGR #76
LONGSHOT
|
The solo runner-up at Valero is the only top-30 in his last eight starts, and that's a tough profile to trust at +16567. The skill numbers are actually fine — +0.25 SG Approach and +0.51 total — but the results don't match, with a T44 at the PGA and a missed cut here in 2025. OWGR #76 says the talent is real; the form says wait for a better spot. |
+16567 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T27
2023NA
Win+16567
Top 5+2727
Top 10+1186
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T30 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T55 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T2 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T51 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T40
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 48 |
Stephan Jaeger
USA - OWGR #95
LONGSHOT
|
A WD at Colonial is a red flag you can't ignore at +16707, especially with a missed cut at Myrtle Beach and another at Zurich already on the card. The T9 at Byron Nelson and T18 at the PGA show the ceiling is still there when healthy, and +0.29 SG Total isn't disqualifying. But -0.22 off the tee and a 7.0% top-10 from the model say this is a pass until we see clean health. |
+16707 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+16707
Top 5+2942
Top 10+1328
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): WD • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T9 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T18 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): MC • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T59 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T7
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 49 |
Austin Smotherman
USA - OWGR #93
LONGSHOT
|
Tee-to-green numbers actually hold up here — +0.35 SG Off-the-Tee and +0.38 SG Approach are the kind of ball-striking baseline you want from a +16849 dart. The problem is everything around it: -0.26 around the greens, -0.2 putting, and a recent log littered with MCs at the PGA, Zurich, and Valspar. The model gives him a 0.59% win number for a reason. Pass on the outright, consider him only as a deep-pool DFS pivot. |
+16849 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023T50
Win+16849
Top 5+2884
Top 10+1245
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T42 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T19 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T60 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T74 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T36 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 50 |
Max McGreevy
USA - OWGR #98
LONGSHOT
|
A T35 at Colonial doesn't move the needle, but the underlying skill profile does — +0.43 SG Total leads this mini-batch and the +0.37 approach number is legit for a +17043 longshot. The flat stick is the anchor at -0.26, which explains three MCs in his last four majors/limited fields. A T27 here in 2025 is the only course history data point worth anything. Top-20 ticket at 17.6% model equity is the only reasonable play. |
+17043 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T27
2024NA
2023MC
Win+17043
Top 5+2581
Top 10+1118
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): MC • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T32 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T19 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 51 |
Thorbjorn Olesen
USA - OWGR #128
LONGSHOT
|
Two cuts made in two trips here (T36 in '25, T27 in '24) is quietly the best course history in this batch, and the +0.33 SG Total is supported by positive marks across OTT, approach, and around-the-green. The missing putting data is a real handicap when you're trying to project a winner at +17864, and the recent form (T67, T62, T49) suggests he's grinding rather than peaking. The T14 at Houston is the lone spark. Skip the outright, small top-20 sprinkle at best. |
+17864 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T36
2024T27
2023NA
Win+17864
Top 5+2712
Top 10+1215
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T67 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T62 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T49 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T14 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 52 |
Haotong Li
USA - OWGR #90
LONGSHOT
|
A T35 at the PGA Championship and a T38 at the Masters say he can show up on a big stage, but everything around those starts is ugly — five MCs in his last seven, no course history to lean on, and a -0.2 around-the-green number that punishes him on any week the irons are slightly off. The +0.31 SG Off-the-Tee is the one real skill at +19193. Hard to see a win path here. Fade. |
+19193 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+19193
Top 5+3057
Top 10+1301
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): MC • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T38 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 53 |
Ben James
USA - OWGR #501
LONGSHOT
|
No SG data, no course history, no recent form, and an OWGR of #501 — this is a pure name-recognition price at +19508. The model is essentially guessing with a 0.51% win number and a 56% make-cut, both of which feel generous given the complete absence of professional baseline. Amateur intrigue only. There is zero handicapping edge here and no reason to bet the outright. |
+19508 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+19508
Top 5+3002
Top 10+1312
Recent Form
—
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 54 |
Denny McCarthy
USA - OWGR #103
LONGSHOT
|
The +0.56 SG Putting is elite and the only reason to look at this ticket — it's the best flat-stick number in the batch by a mile and pairs with a +0.095 course fit adjustment that suggests the model sees something. The problem is -0.42 SG Off-the-Tee, which is a brutal anchor at any course with length. T34 at Memorial and T12 at Houston are fine, but +20733 is a stretch. Top-20 only, where 16.2% equity actually has some value. |
+20733 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+20733
Top 5+3042
Top 10+1274
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T34 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T48 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T65 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T12 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T26
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 55 |
Matti Schmid
USA - OWGR #70
LONGSHOT
|
The T4 at the PGA Championship is the headline and it's a real one — that's a top-five at a major, not a signature event filler. Back that with a T10 at Zurich and you've got a guy who's flashed twice in his last six. Three straight MCs at this venue ('23, '24, '25) is the obvious counter, and +22122 reflects the inconsistency. The major result alone makes a small outright worth a look; top-10 at +1450 is the better structure. |
+22122 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023MC
Win+22122
Top 5+3301
Top 10+1450
Recent Form
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T4 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): MC • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T10 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): 74 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T40
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
6.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
Daily Matchups coming soon.