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// BETTING PREVIEW - JULY 30 - AUGUST 02
Rocket Classic
July 30 - August 02, 2026 | Detroit, Michigan
⛅ Tournament Weather Forecast
Expect sunny skies with highs in the 83F range and moderate winds around 12 mph throughout the week. Some rain is possible, making for good scoring opportunities.
🌬️ Wind by Day — Morning & Afternoon
| Day | 8 AM | 12 PM |
|---|---|---|
| Thu | ↑ 4 mph NW G12 | ↑ 6 mph N G11 |
| Fri | ↑ 4 mph ESE G9 | ↑ 7 mph SSE G8 |
| Sat | ↑ 6 mph ESE G14 | ↑ 5 mph ESE G12 |
| Sun | ↑ 3 mph ESE G5 | ↑ 5 mph NE G13 |
🌊 Mornings play calmer (~4 vs ~6 mph) — a slight edge to AM-wave tee times.
🔒 Crew picks drop Wednesday night
Cameron Young commands the top of the board at the Rocket Classic with the field's best SG Total (+1.93) and SG Approach (+0.78), giving him an 8.1% model win probability — nearly double the next closest competitor. J.J. Spaun profiles as one of the most compelling names in the mid-tier: he ranks second in the field in SG Approach (+0.76), owns the best course history adjustment at Detroit Golf Club (+0.133 strokes), and posted a T10 here in 2024. Among longshots, Nicolai Hojgaard stands out with a positive course history adjustment (+0.026) across three straight starts at Detroit Golf Club and a 15.6% top-10 probability, making him a legitimate contender in a wide-open event where 143 players are vying for the title.
Cameron Young Is the Clear Model Alpha
Young leads the field in SG Total (+1.93), SG Approach (+0.78), and model win probability (8.1%). His T6 at Detroit Golf Club in 2024 adds historical substance to an elite statistical profile, and his ball-striking dominance is tailor-made for a course that rewards precision iron play.
Cameron Young
J.J. Spaun's Detroit Golf Club Pedigree Shines
Spaun boasts the field's highest course history adjustment (+0.133 strokes) at Detroit Golf Club, backed by finishes of T10 (2024) and T33 (2023). He also ranks second in SG Approach (+0.76) and has the best course fit score (-0.042) among the top 10 favorites, giving him a 22.2% model top-10 probability.
J.J. Spaun
Schauffele Brings Elite Talent, No Course Data
Xander Schauffele ranks second in SG Total (+1.68) and fifth in SG Approach (+0.63), projecting for a 4.7% win probability. With no prior starts at Detroit Golf Club, there's no course history to lean on, but his pure skill ceiling in this field is surpassed only by Young.
Xander Schauffele
Ben Griffin: Dual-Threat Ball-Striker and Putter
Griffin is one of only two players to rank in the top 7 in both SG Total (+1.39) and SG Putting (+0.45, 5th in the field). His three consecutive starts at Detroit Golf Club (T33, T31, T13) show a clear upward trend, and the model projects him for a 21.5% top-10 probability.
Ben Griffin
Wyndham Clark's Putter Could Unlock Upside
Clark ranks second in the entire field in SG Putting (+0.54) while carrying a strong +1.39 SG Total, yielding a 21.9% model top-10 probability. His missed cut in 2025 at Detroit Golf Club is a flag, but his positive course history adjustment (+0.038) suggests the MC may have been an outlier rather than a pattern.
Wyndham Clark
Nicolai Hojgaard Tops Course Fit Leaderboard
Hojgaard owns the best course fit score in the field at -0.027 and carries a solid +1.00 SG Total with a 15.6% top-10 probability. His positive course history adjustment (+0.026) complements the fit profile, making him the model's strongest longshot projection.
Nicolai Hojgaard
Rickie Fowler: 2023 Champion Returns at Range
Fowler, the 2023 Rocket Classic champion, projects for a 13.2% top-10 probability at +7190. His SG Total of +0.80 is modest relative to the top tier, but his proven ability to win at Detroit Golf Club provides a history-based floor that pure stats may not fully capture.
Rickie Fowler
Si Woo Kim's Iron Play Belies Poor History
Kim ranks third in SG Approach (+0.74) and third in SG Total (+1.66), driving a 4.0% win probability. However, his Detroit Golf Club results are alarming — 84th in 2025, MC in 2024, and T74 in 2023 — and his course fit (-0.073) is one of the weakest among favorites. The talent is undeniable, but the venue has not rewarded it.
Si Woo Kim
Cantlay's Iron Play Anchors Top-10 Projection
Patrick Cantlay ranks fourth in SG Approach (+0.67) and carries a 23.1% model top-10 probability — the highest among all model standouts. His T32 in 2025 at Detroit Golf Club was unremarkable, but a positive course history adjustment (+0.021) and elite ball-striking suggest a higher ceiling this week.
Patrick Cantlay
Akshay Bhatia: Putter-Driven Sleeper at +6222
Bhatia ranks third in the field in SG Putting (+0.50) and carries a +0.99 SG Total, projecting for a 14.3% top-10 probability. On a Donald Ross design like Detroit Golf Club where scrambling and touch around the greens can separate players, his flat-stick prowess makes him a compelling longshot play.
Akshay Bhatia
Complete Betting Board
| # | Player | Why They Could Win | Win Odds GolfData API |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Cameron Young
USA - OWGR #3
CONTENDER
|
A runner-up at The Open Championship is the headline, and it lands right on top of a profile that already fits Detroit — 1.93 SG Total, plus positive marks across every category including 0.78 Approach and 0.73 off the tee. The T6 here in 2024 confirms the course travels, and the model spits out 8.09% to win with a 37.1% top-10 clip. At OWGR #3, he's the highest-ranked player in the field, and the +170 top-10 number is where the projection is strongest. |
+1135 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T46
2024T6
2023T52
Win+1135
Top 5+302
Top 10+170
Recent Form
Corales Puntacana Championship (Jul 2026): T34 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): 2 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T47 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T46 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
8.1%
Top 10 Probability
37.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 2 |
Chris Gotterup
USA - OWGR #7
CONTENDER
|
Winner of the John Deere Classic and then a T11 at the Scottish and T18 at The Open — that's the kind of stretch that vaults a guy to OWGR #7. The ball-striking travels anywhere (0.70 OTT, 0.57 Approach), and the model gives him a 28.6% top-10 shot at +249. Detroit history is thin (T26, T67), but the current form curve is doing all the heavy lifting on the 4.88% win number. |
+1950 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T26
2024T67
2023NA
Win+1950
Top 5+472
Top 10+249
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T18 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T11 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): 1 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T27 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T10
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.9%
Top 10 Probability
28.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 3 |
Xander Schauffele
USA - OWGR #15
CONTENDER
|
No prior starts at Detroit Golf Club is unusual for a player of this caliber, and the course-fit adjustment (-0.055) tells you the model isn't in love with the setup either. Still, 1.68 SG Total with 0.71 OTT and 0.63 Approach is elite baseline talent, and a T7 at the PGA and T11 at the U.S. Open show the ceiling is intact. The model lands at 4.68% to win and 27.6% top-10, which is more a testament to floor than any Detroit-specific edge. |
+2037 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+2037
Top 5+495
Top 10+262
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T18 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T51 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T11 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T29 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T7
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.7%
Top 10 Probability
27.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.06
Course History—
| |||
| 4 |
Si Woo Kim
KOR - OWGR #18
CONTENDER
|
A T6 at The Open and a T9 at the Scottish flag a player in genuinely sharp form, and the 0.74 SG Approach paired with a runner-up at the Byron Nelson earlier this season shows the iron game is humming. Detroit history is a problem though — 84th, MC, T74 across three tries, which is why the course history adjustment sits at -0.07. The model's 4.04% win number and +271 top-10 essentially bet on the form outrunning the résumé. |
+2372 |
Tournament History & Odds
202584
2024MC
2023T74
Win+2372
Top 5+532
Top 10+271
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T6 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T9 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T44 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T10 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 2 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.0%
Top 10 Probability
26.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History-0.07
| |||
| 5 |
Patrick Cantlay
USA - OWGR #39
CONTENDER
|
Only one start here (a T32 in 2025) and a course-fit adjustment of -0.055 make this a lukewarm pairing on paper. The underlying game still profiles — 1.44 SG Total, 0.67 Approach, 0.23 Around Green — but the recent slate is spotty with two missed cuts mixed into a T14 at Travelers and T17 at Memorial. At +3066 with a 23.1% top-10 projection, the model treats him as a solid contender rather than a serious win threat. |
+3066 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T32
2024NA
2023NA
Win+3066
Top 5+653
Top 10+334
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T28 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T17 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.2%
Top 10 Probability
23.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.06
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 6 |
Wyndham Clark
USA - OWGR #9
CONTENDER
|
The U.S. Open title, a win at the Byron Nelson, and a solo 3rd at Memorial make this one of the hottest résumés in the field, even with a missed cut at The Open. The short game is the driver here — 0.54 Putting and 0.36 Around Green — which offsets a pedestrian 0.10 SG OTT. Detroit history is a single missed cut, and the model still lands at 3.15% to win and 21.9% top-10, riding the form spike more than the fit. |
+3080 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+3080
Top 5+685
Top 10+356
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T13 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T5 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): 1 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T11 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 3 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 1 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.1%
Top 10 Probability
21.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 7 |
J.J. Spaun
USA - OWGR #14
CONTENDER
|
The course history adjustment of 0.133 is the biggest in this group by a mile, anchored by a T10 in 2024 and T33 in 2023. Add 0.76 SG Approach and a recent T7 at Travelers and T12 at Memorial, and the profile stacks nicely for Detroit's birdie-fest setup. The +3230 win number and 22.2% top-10 make the top-10 market the cleanest fit for what the model actually likes. |
+3230 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T10
2023T33
Win+3230
Top 5+697
Top 10+351
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T40 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T44 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T7 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T12 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T6 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.0%
Top 10 Probability
22.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History+0.13
| |||
| 8 |
Ben Griffin
USA - OWGR #19
CONTENDER
|
Three straight made cuts at Detroit Golf Club with a T13 in 2025 is a quietly useful résumé, and the well-rounded stat line — 0.43 Approach, 0.33 Around Green, 0.45 Putting — is exactly what plays on a course where birdies come from everywhere. A T3 at Colonial and T10 at Travelers show the game is trending in the right window. The model's 2.77% win and 21.5% top-10 slot him firmly in the outright-longshot, top-10-dart tier at +364. |
+3512 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T13
2024T31
2023T33
Win+3512
Top 5+738
Top 10+364
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T59 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T21 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T10 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T17 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T3 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T14
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.8%
Top 10 Probability
21.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 9 |
Jackson Koivun
USA - OWGR #73
CONTENDER
|
Winner of the 3M Open with a T10 at the ISCO chaser — that's a live rookie profile, and the model responds with a 2.64% win number and 19.9% top-10. The one Detroit start was a missed cut in 2024, and the course-fit adjustment sits slightly red at -0.053, so this is a form play, not a horses-for-courses play. At +404 to crack the top 10, the model is buying the heater more than the venue. |
+3685 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023NA
Win+3685
Top 5+802
Top 10+404
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): 1 • ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): T10 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.6%
Top 10 Probability
19.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 10 |
Hideki Matsuyama
JPN - OWGR #25
CONTENDER
|
A solo 3rd at the 3M Open headlines seven straight made cuts, and the full stat sheet is genuinely well-rounded: +1.18 SG Total, +0.44 approach, +0.43 around the green, +0.24 putting. The Detroit sample is thin (T13 in 2025, MC in 2023) and course fit grades slightly negative at -0.065, but at world #25 with this recent form, the 19.7% top-10 number is the cleaner way in versus +4001 to win. |
+4001 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T13
2024NA
2023MC
Win+4001
Top 5+816
Top 10+407
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): T3 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T14 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T65 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T43 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T13 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.4%
Top 10 Probability
19.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 11 |
Russell Henley
USA - OWGR #5
CONTENDER
|
World #5 making his Detroit debut is the headline, and the profile that gets him there is loud — +1.28 SG Total, +0.50 approach, and a win at the Charles Schwab Challenge already banked. The T9 at the Open and T12 at Travelers confirm the form is real. Course fit reads a touch cool at -0.069 with zero history to lean on, which is why the model has him at 2.42% to win rather than treating him like a pure elite; the 19.7% top-10 is the more honest read. |
+4032 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+4032
Top 5+823
Top 10+408
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T9 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T12 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T65 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T22 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): 1 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.4%
Top 10 Probability
19.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 12 |
Jake Knapp
USA - OWGR #47
CONTENDER
|
A T4 here in 2025 pairs with a T13 at the 3M Open to build an actual Detroit case, and it's reflected in the +0.049 course history adjustment — one of the friendlier marks in this tier. The +0.36 off the tee and +0.38 approach fit a bomber's track, though the around-the-green number at -0.09 is a leak. The model lands at 2.37% to win and 17.9% top-10; the +457 top-10 is where the course history actually gets paid. |
+4113 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T4
2024T31
2023NA
Win+4113
Top 5+894
Top 10+457
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): T13 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T55 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.4%
Top 10 Probability
17.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History+0.05
| |||
| 13 |
Ryan Gerard
USA - OWGR #24
CONTENDER
|
Runner-up at the Memorial and T9 at the Open Championship is a serious two-month stretch for a player at OWGR #24, and the underlying numbers back it: +1.26 SG Total with +0.49 irons and +0.43 off the tee. Detroit history is meh (T41 in 2025, T56 in 2023) and course fit sits at -0.051, so this is a talent-and-form bet rather than a course-fit one. The model's 18.8% top-10 is the cleanest expression at +432. |
+4335 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T41
2024NA
2023T56
Win+4335
Top 5+865
Top 10+432
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T9 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T26 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T44 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 2 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T10 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T70
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.2%
Top 10 Probability
18.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 14 |
Nicolai Hojgaard
DEN - OWGR #38
VALUE
|
Three straight made cuts at Detroit Golf Club (T21, 66, T24) give him a small but positive +0.026 course history adjustment, and the iron play at +0.49 is the skill that travels. The problem is everything around it: four missed cuts in his last seven starts including the Open, Memorial, and U.S. Open. The model still lands at 1.92% to win largely on ceiling and history, but the form makes the 15.6% top-10 the sharper angle rather than the +5113 win ticket. |
+5113 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T24
202466
2023T21
Win+5113
Top 5+1078
Top 10+539
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T26 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T44
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.9%
Top 10 Probability
15.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 15 |
Michael Thorbjornsen
USA - OWGR #68
VALUE
|
T4 here in 2025 is the anchor point, and a T7 at the Genesis Scottish Open shows the game has been sharp on the right week. The tee-to-green profile fits — +0.44 off the tee, +0.36 approach, +0.17 around the green — but the putter at +0.01 is a genuine concern on Detroit's gettable greens. Two missed cuts mixed into recent form keeps the model honest at 1.66% to win; the +563 top-10 is where the course comfort actually shows up. |
+5930 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T4
2024MC
2023NA
Win+5930
Top 5+1162
Top 10+563
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T40 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T7 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T54 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): 16 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.7%
Top 10 Probability
15.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 16 |
Akshay Bhatia
USA - OWGR #32
VALUE
|
Runner-up at Detroit in 2024 drives the +0.026 course history adjustment, and the putter at +0.50 is the best mark in this group by a wide margin — exactly the skill that plays on these bentgrass surfaces. The T5 at Travelers and T17 at the U.S. Open show the game is trending, though two missed cuts (Open, Memorial) keep this in longshot territory. The model has him at 14.3% to top-10; +601 is the market where the 2024 finish and the flatstick both get paid. |
+6222 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T26
2024T2
2023MC
Win+6222
Top 5+1241
Top 10+601
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T5 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T17 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T28 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
14.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 17 |
Keegan Bradley
USA - OWGR #44
VALUE
|
Seven straight made cuts headlined by a T14 at the Travelers and T19 at the Memorial is a steady baseline for the Ryder Cup captain, and the +0.89 SG Total backs it up. Detroit hasn't been kind, though — T41 in 2025 and T21 in 2023 produce a negative -0.006 history adjustment, and the course fit reads -0.034. The model gives him a 14.3% top-10 chance at +598, which is the market this profile actually fits. Win equity at +6401 is thin without a hot putter. |
+6401 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T41
2024NA
2023T21
Win+6401
Top 5+1242
Top 10+598
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T74 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T26 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T32 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T19 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
14.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 18 |
Rickie Fowler
USA - OWGR #41
VALUE
|
The 2023 champion here is the obvious hook, but the surrounding evidence has gotten shaky — an MC title defense in 2025, plus three missed cuts in his last seven starts including the U.S. Open, Memorial, and Charles Schwab. A T18 at the Open Championship and T15 at the John Deere are legitimate signs of life. Still, at OWGR #41 with a -0.031 course fit and just 13.2% to crack the top 10, the +7190 win number feels like a nostalgia play more than a projection. |
+7190 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T31
20231
Win+7190
Top 5+1376
Top 10+658
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T18 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T15 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T38 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T60
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
13.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 19 |
Jacob Bridgeman
USA - OWGR #31
VALUE
|
The +0.026 course history adjustment is one of the better marks in this tier, built off a T26 and T31 in his only two Rocket appearances. His putter reads +0.38 — top-shelf for a longshot — and he's made every cut across his last six starts including a T11 at the RBC Canadian Open and a T28 at the Open Championship. At OWGR #31 with 13.4% top-10 equity, the +646 top-10 price is where his profile lives; the +7271 win number is a stretch. |
+7271 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T26
2024T31
2023NA
Win+7271
Top 5+1358
Top 10+646
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T28 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T26 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T47 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T39 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T11 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T34 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
13.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 20 |
Harris English
USA - OWGR #34
VALUE
|
The +1.04 SG Total is the highest in this tier and a top-shelf number in the entire field, driven by a well-rounded bag with +0.40 putting and +0.30 off the tee. The problem is a rough month — MCs at the Open Championship, Scottish, and U.S. Open sandwiched around a T38 at the Travelers. No Detroit history and a -0.053 course fit are working against him too. The model still gives him 13.5% to make the top 10, so +639 is the market that fits. |
+7682 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+7682
Top 5+1377
Top 10+639
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T38 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T17 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
13.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 21 |
Davis Thompson
USA - OWGR #136
VALUE
|
A T2 here in 2024 is the reason this profile exists — that finish drives a +0.04 course history adjustment, one of the larger positive marks in the field. He backed it up with a T7 at the 3M Open, which is another Midwest, low-scoring test. OWGR #136 is ugly and the +0.41 approach is the only truly elite skill number, but the Detroit-specific case is real. Top 10 at +666 with 13.1% model equity is the most defensible ticket. |
+7921 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T34
2024T2
2023T24
Win+7921
Top 5+1399
Top 10+666
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): T7 • ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T26 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T45 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
13.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 22 |
Michael Brennan
USA - OWGR #60
VALUE
|
The +0.76 SG off the tee is the loudest number in this tier and it matters at a bomber-friendly setup like Detroit Golf Club. Everything else is a work in progress — the short game reads -0.23 around the greens and -0.16 on the greens, and he's missed cuts at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and RBC Canadian Open along the way. A T6 at the Charles Schwab is the ceiling data point. At OWGR #60 with just 11.7% top-10 equity, +753 is a reasonable dart with real variance. |
+8108 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+8108
Top 5+1568
Top 10+753
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): T24 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T53 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T52 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T33 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T6 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): 81
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
11.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History—
| |||
| 23 |
Jordan Smith
ENG - OWGR #76
VALUE
|
The DP World Tour veteran arrives with three straight top-25s across the pond — T18 at the Open Championship, T21 at the Scottish, T39 at the 3M Open — and a +0.43 SG Approach that plays anywhere. No Rocket history and a -0.016 course fit adjustment keep the ceiling capped, and the short game (-0.10 around, -0.14 putting) is a real leak on a course where birdies pile up. The +9174 win price is honest; 12.0% top-10 equity at +733 is the only realistic angle. |
+9174 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9174
Top 5+1587
Top 10+733
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): T39 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T18 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T21 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T13 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T59 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
12.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History—
| |||
| 24 |
Doug Ghim
USA - OWGR #169
VALUE
|
A T6 at the John Deere and a T15 at the RBC Canadian are the two data points keeping this ticket alive, both on courses that share Detroit's low-scoring, birdie-fest DNA. Three prior Rocket starts produce a mediocre -0.02 history adjustment (T19, MC, T33), and the OWGR #169 tag is a warning. The +0.26 approach and +0.10 around-the-green numbers are fine but not carrying anyone to a win. Top 10 at +768 with 11.5% equity is the only market where the price and profile even shake hands. |
+9290 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T19
2024MC
2023T33
Win+9290
Top 5+1631
Top 10+768
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T6 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T15 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T28 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T31
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
11.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 25 |
Ryo Hisatsune
JPN - OWGR #65
VALUE
|
Two starts here, two weekends made — a T31 in 2024 and T60 in 2025 don't scream contender, but the tee-to-green profile has quietly rounded into form with a T9 at the John Deere Classic and a T19 at the Byron Nelson. The +0.44 SG off the tee and +0.42 approach numbers travel well to a birdie-fest like Detroit Golf Club. The model gives him an 11.3% top-10 shot at +785, and that's where any interest should live — the +9334 win price reflects a putter (-0.05) that just isn't hot enough to run the table. |
+9334 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T60
2024T31
2023NA
Win+9334
Top 5+1645
Top 10+785
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T53 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T9 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T38 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 52 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): 66 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
11.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 26 |
Sungjae Im
KOR - OWGR #79
VALUE
|
Skipped this event the last two years, and the 2023 T24 is the only data point tying him to Detroit Golf Club. The profile is upside-down for the setup — negative approach (-0.19) at a course where irons decide everything, propped up by around-green (+0.36) and putting (+0.20) that matter less here. A T14 at The Open shows the ceiling is still there, but three missed cuts in his last eight (PGA, Schwab, Scottish, 3M) is a real red flag. Hard to build a win case at +9379. |
+9379 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023T24
Win+9379
Top 5+1681
Top 10+790
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T14 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T71 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T32 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T9 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
11.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 27 |
Corey Conners
CAN - OWGR #50
VALUE
|
No history at Detroit Golf Club, and that's a problem when the course-fit adjustment is already dinging him at -0.031. The Canadian's calling card is elite iron play (+0.50 SG Approach, top-tier in this field), but the putter (-0.01) has been the anchor his entire career and this is a putting contest — winners routinely go 25-under here. T7 at Travelers and T14 at The Open confirm the ball-striking is sharp; the model's 12.2% top-10 number at +721 is the realistic bet, not the +9454 win ticket. |
+9454 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9454
Top 5+1557
Top 10+721
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): T39 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T14 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T52 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T7 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 53 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T55
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
12.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 28 |
Brooks Koepka
USA - OWGR #113
VALUE
|
Debut start at Detroit Golf Club, no course history to lean on, and the LIV schedule makes any PGA Tour form read noisy. The recent sample is ugly — WD at the RBC Canadian, MC at the U.S. Open, MC at the Scottish — with only a T28 at The Open showing pulse. OWGR has slid to #113 and the putting (-0.08) is a real problem at a course that demands you make everything. The +9817 win price is a name-brand tax; the model's 10.4% top-10 at +859 is the only market that even mildly fits. |
+9817 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9817
Top 5+1799
Top 10+859
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T28 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): WD • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T14 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T55
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
10.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 29 |
Mac Meissner
USA - OWGR #87
VALUE
|
0-for-2 at Detroit Golf Club with missed cuts in both 2024 and 2025, which makes the -0.01 course history adjustment generous. That said, the short game is legit — +0.35 putting and +0.22 around the green are the two skills that print at this venue, and a T3 at the Charles Schwab plus T6 at the John Deere prove he can go low when the flat stick heats up. The -0.07 SG off the tee is a concern against a bomber-friendly field, and the +10538 win number reflects it. Top-10 at +792 is the cleaner angle. |
+10538 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023NA
Win+10538
Top 5+1760
Top 10+792
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T30 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T6 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T44 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T46 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T3 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T31
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
11.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 30 |
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
DEN - OWGR #77
VALUE
|
A T9 at The Open Championship is the headline result of his young PGA Tour profile, and the +0.57 SG off the tee is a genuinely elite number that fits a course where you can bomb it and wedge in. No history at Detroit Golf Club and a putter sitting at -0.01 are the reasons the model still lands at +10889 to win. The 10.4% top-10 projection at +860 is where the ball-striking case actually cashes — a T20 at the 3M Open shows he travels to birdie setups. |
+10889 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10889
Top 5+1886
Top 10+860
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): T20 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T9 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T36 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): 39 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T42 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T75
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
10.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 31 |
Eric Cole
USA - OWGR #70
VALUE
|
T6 here in 2024 is the entire reason this profile has a pulse — that finish drives a +0.032 course history adjustment, one of the better marks in this longshot tier. The short game (+0.28 around the green, +0.41 putting) is genuinely suited to Detroit Golf Club's birdie-or-bust nature, and a solo 2nd at the Charles Schwab plus a solo 8th at the Memorial prove the ceiling is real. The -0.24 SG off the tee is the anchor — he'll have to scramble his way through a bomber's course. Model gives him a 10% top-10 shot at +899. |
+11221 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T6
2023NA
Win+11221
Top 5+1922
Top 10+899
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T53 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): 70 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T39 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T38 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 8 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): 2 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T31
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
10.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 32 |
Ben James
USA - OWGR #397
VALUE
|
The amateur-turned-pro made the cut here in 2024 (T44) and just posted a T4 at the Corales Puntacana Championship, which is the only reason a #397 OWGR player is even in this conversation. Missing SG data makes the profile a projection exercise, and the model's 0.85% win number at +11711 reflects exactly how thin the case is. A T23 at the U.S. Open shows he can hang on a big stage, but building a win narrative at Detroit Golf Club against this field is a stretch — top-10 at +943 is the only realistic angle. |
+11711 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T44
2023NA
Win+11711
Top 5+2065
Top 10+943
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): MC • Corales Puntacana Championship (Jul 2026): T4 • ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): T15 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T62 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T54
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
9.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 33 |
Michael Kim
USA - OWGR #55
VALUE
|
A T10 at the 3M Open is the only recent life sign in a form line littered with three missed cuts, including at The Open and the John Deere. The profile itself is fine — +0.32 approach, +0.27 putting, a T26 here in 2025 — but the model still lands on 0.84% to win because both the course fit (-0.029) and course history (-0.032) adjustments grade negative. OWGR #55 gives him a floor, and the 9.8% top-10 number is where any real interest lives. |
+11734 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T26
2024T52
2023NA
Win+11734
Top 5+2007
Top 10+923
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): T10 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T49 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T17 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T44
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
9.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 34 |
Jackson Suber
USA - OWGR #105
VALUE
|
T6 at Detroit Golf Club in his lone start here (2025) is the anchor of a +0.047 course history adjustment — one of the more positive marks in this range. Pair that with a T6 at the John Deere, a T4 at the RBC Canadian Open, and a solo 4th at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, and there's a genuine birdie-course profile here at +0.35 approach and +0.10 off the tee. The model prices him to 9.3% for a top 10, and given the recent form spike, the top-5 market at +2086 is the more interesting way in. |
+11972 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T6
2024NA
2023NA
Win+11972
Top 5+2086
Top 10+974
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T28 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T6 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T4 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T67 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 4
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
9.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.05
| |||
| 35 |
Max Greyserman
USA - OWGR #83
VALUE
|
Solo 2nd at this event in 2025 is the kind of course history that drives the +0.044 adjustment and keeps the model honest at 9.5% for a top 10. The approach number is soft at -0.12, but +0.28 putting and +0.18 off the tee fit a bomb-and-roll track like Detroit Golf Club. Recent form is choppy — MC at The Open, T31 at the 3M — but a T9 at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and T14 at the PGA Championship prove the ceiling is real. The 19.4% top-20 number is where the profile makes the most sense. |
+12095 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T2
2024T31
2023NA
Win+12095
Top 5+2078
Top 10+956
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): T31 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T36 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T9 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T14
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
9.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 36 |
Andrew Novak
USA - OWGR #75
VALUE
|
The ball-striking profile is the best in this tier by a mile — +0.32 off the tee, +0.40 approach, +0.13 around the green — but he's putted himself out of every recent event at -0.26. That's why four of his last six starts are missed cuts or T30-range grinds, and it's why the model lands at 0.78% to win despite the tee-to-green resume. A T20 here in 2024 shows the course can work, but until the flat stick shows up, the 8.6% top-10 is the ceiling of reasonable engagement. |
+12776 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T20
2023MC
Win+12776
Top 5+2299
Top 10+1067
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T61 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T54 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
8.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.00
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 37 |
Matt Wallace
ENG - OWGR #74
VALUE
|
The iron play is the sell — +0.45 approach paired with +0.20 around the green is a legitimate scoring-course toolkit, and the T33 at the John Deere and T40 at The Open suggest the game is trending. Detroit Golf Club history is uninspiring (T46, MC, T78), but the +0.012 course history adjustment is at least neutral. Model gives him a 61.1% make-cut and 19.5% top-20, which is where this profile actually pays — the +13174 win number reflects a player without a clear closing gear right now. |
+13174 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T46
2024MC
2023T78
Win+13174
Top 5+2124
Top 10+957
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T40 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T33 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T44
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
9.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 38 |
Tony Finau
USA - OWGR #130
VALUE
|
OWGR #130 tells the story of how far the stock has fallen — this is a player who used to be a fixture on birdie tracks and now grades at +0.34 SG total with a neutral putter and +0.03 approach. The T6 at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson is the only top-25 in his last seven starts, and the MC at his lone Detroit Golf Club appearance (2023) doesn't help. Hard to see the win path at +13630 when the ball-striking that used to define him has flatlined; the 8.5% top-10 is generous as-is. |
+13630 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023MC
Win+13630
Top 5+2342
Top 10+1083
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T58 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T55 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T40 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T29 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 39 |
Marco Penge
ENG - OWGR #51
VALUE
|
The +0.55 SG off the tee is the standout number in this entire tier and the exact skill Detroit Golf Club rewards, but the supporting cast is thin — +0.05 approach, -0.16 around the green, and no prior starts at this event. A T18 at The Open Championship is a legitimate result, though it's sandwiched between missed cuts at the Scottish Open and PGA Championship. The model lands at 0.70% to win and 8.2% for a top 10 — a bomber's profile without the finishing skills to close, and the small sample means projecting him is largely a driver bet. |
+14084 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14084
Top 5+2410
Top 10+1119
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T18 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 40 |
Ben Kohles
USA - OWGR #114
VALUE
|
Riding a genuine heater into Detroit — solo 9th at the 3M Open, T15 at the ISCO, and a T3 at the John Deere in his last three starts. The +0.52 approach number is the top mark in this tier, and a T20 here in 2024 shows the course fits even if the model's -0.008 history adjustment is neutral. The -0.18 putting is the drag on the profile and the reason the win price sits at +14118, but the 18.7% top-20 and 60.6% make-cut numbers reflect a player playing the best golf of anyone in this group. |
+14118 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T78
2024T20
2023NA
Win+14118
Top 5+2345
Top 10+1032
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): 9 • ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): T15 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T3 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T29 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 41 |
Aldrich Potgieter
RSA - OWGR #88
VALUE
|
Defending champion at Detroit Golf Club, and that 2025 title is exactly what drives the +0.03 course history bump baked into the model. The +0.48 SG off the tee travels well on a birdie track that rewards length, but the flat approach and -0.25 short game explain why the win number sits all the way out at +14606. Recent form is genuinely rough — three missed cuts in his last four starts, including the 3M Open — so the +1236 to crack the top 10 is the more honest way to play the title defense angle. |
+14606 |
Tournament History & Odds
20251
2024NA
2023MC
Win+14606
Top 5+2638
Top 10+1236
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T59 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T8 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
7.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 42 |
Zecheng Dou
CHN - OWGR #189
VALUE
|
T17 at this event in 2023 is the only course data point on file, but the model still bakes in a +0.029 history adjustment because the profile fits — +0.35 SG total driven by balanced tee-to-green work and a rare positive putting number for this tier. A T16 at the 3M Open is the lone bright spot in a form line littered with missed cuts at the ISCO, Canadian Open, Byron Nelson, and Schwab. At 7.9% to make the top 10, he's a live outright dart on a birdie track that suits ball-strikers who don't beat themselves. |
+14642 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023T17
Win+14642
Top 5+2572
Top 10+1160
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): T16 • Corales Puntacana Championship (Jul 2026): MC • ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T21 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
7.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 43 |
William Mouw
USA - OWGR #133
LONGSHOT
|
The +0.36 SG approach number is the sell here, and it's the exact skill Detroit rewards when the greens get soft and scoring goes low. T34 in his 2025 debut at Detroit Golf Club is nothing to write home about, but a T10 at the ISCO and T20 at the Canadian Open show the game travels to birdie venues. The -0.18 putter is the anchor keeping the win number at +15900, so the 15.6% top-20 projection is the cleaner read on his ceiling this week. |
+15900 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T34
2024NA
2023NA
Win+15900
Top 5+2771
Top 10+1248
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): MC • ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): T10 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T26 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T65 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T20 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T70
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 44 |
Pierceson Coody
USA - OWGR #62
LONGSHOT
|
OWGR #62 is the highest-ranked player in this tier, and the +0.20 putter paired with a +0.24 driver is a workable birdie-course toolkit. The problem is the -0.01 approach number, which is why the model shades the course fit slightly negative at -0.012 despite the ranking. Recent form is a mixed bag — a missed cut at the 3M Open sandwiched between a T28 at The Open and T23 at the U.S. Open — and the model's 7.4% top-10 projection reflects a player with the pedigree but not the current ball-striking to threaten Potgieter's title defense. |
+16116 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T63
2023NA
Win+16116
Top 5+2765
Top 10+1255
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T28 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T39 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T22 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+-0.00
| |||
| 45 |
Jordan Spieth
USA - OWGR #57
LONGSHOT
|
First career start at Detroit Golf Club, which is why the course history adjustment is blank and the model leans entirely on the +0.55 SG total — the best number in this entire tier. The profile is balanced across the board: +0.17 off the tee, +0.23 approach, +0.09 around the green, +0.07 putting, which is exactly the shape you want on a soft birdie track. Form is the concern — missed cut at The Open, T58 at the John Deere, T66 at Travelers — so the 7.9% top-10 projection is the model betting on talent over trajectory. |
+16204 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+16204
Top 5+2598
Top 10+1164
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T58 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T66 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T56 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History—
| |||
| 46 |
Sam Stevens
USA - OWGR #53
LONGSHOT
|
A T7 at the U.S. Open is the most portable result on this page — anyone who can post that number at Oakmont has the ball-striking to shred a soft Detroit setup. The +0.27 approach and +0.22 off the tee back it up, and a T10 here in 2024 is real course-tested evidence, even if 2025 was a skip. The 58.7% make-cut projection is the highest in this batch, and at 8.3% to crack the top 10 he's the most complete longshot profile the model puts forward. |
+16249 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T10
2023T74
Win+16249
Top 5+2537
Top 10+1111
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): T60 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T62 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T7 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T42 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T65
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 47 |
Johnny Keefer
USA - OWGR #63
LONGSHOT
|
A solo T3 at the Genesis Scottish Open is a genuine ball-striking résumé line, and it maps onto a +0.36 SG off the tee and +0.27 approach that scream birdie-course fit. No prior starts at Detroit Golf Club means the model runs on skills alone, and the -0.16 around the green is the one blemish keeping the win number at +16293. The 16.0% top-20 projection is where the profile makes the most sense — a player capable of a run at the top of the board but leaning on a shaky short game to close. |
+16293 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+16293
Top 5+2679
Top 10+1217
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T59 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T3 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T39 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T51 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T9 • PGA Championship (May 2026): 79
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History—
| |||
| 48 |
Nick Taylor
CAN - OWGR #72
LONGSHOT
|
The +0.36 putter and +0.17 short game are elite in this tier, but the -0.15 off the tee is a real problem at a venue where the champions have all been able to move it. Two missed cuts in two prior Detroit starts (2023 and 2024) explain the -0.041 course fit adjustment — the harshest negative in this batch. At +16754 to win and 7.7% for the top 10, the model is essentially saying the putter can carry him into contention but the driver caps the ceiling. |
+16754 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023MC
Win+16754
Top 5+2819
Top 10+1206
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T59 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T26 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T25 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T65 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T43 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 49 |
Kevin Yu
TPE - OWGR #127
LONGSHOT
|
A T16 at the 3M Open backs up a profile that fits Detroit reasonably well — +0.27 off the tee and a positive SG Total of 0.39, with a T31 here in 2024 showing he can hang at the venue. The model gives him a 16.8% top-20 shot and prices the top 10 at +1148, which is the realistic ceiling. Win equity at +17191 is thin because the putter (-0.02) doesn't project the hot week you need at a birdie-fest. |
+17191 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T31
2023MC
Win+17191
Top 5+2563
Top 10+1148
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): T16 • Corales Puntacana Championship (Jul 2026): T24 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T15 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T29 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 50 |
Taylor Moore
USA - OWGR #153
LONGSHOT
|
Three straight missed cuts coming in is ugly, but the course history here is genuinely elite: T4 in 2023 and T10 in 2024 driving a +0.096 course history adjustment that's among the biggest in this tier. The -0.15 approach number is the reason the model still lists him at +18827 to win — you can't birdie-barrage Detroit without irons. Top 10 at +1299 is where the history angle actually lives if you're playing him. |
+18827 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T10
2023T4
Win+18827
Top 5+2889
Top 10+1299
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T40 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T60 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T14
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.00
Course History+0.10
| |||
| 51 |
Emiliano Grillo
ARG - OWGR #101
LONGSHOT
|
Coming off a T7 at the 3M Open, and the underlying skills travel: +0.19 off the tee, +0.15 approach, +0.32 SG Total. The problem is Detroit specifically — a T73 in his only prior start here drags the course history adjustment to -0.027 and the fit sits at -0.019. Model puts him at 15.7% for a top 20 and 7.4% for a top 10, which is the range that makes sense given the recent form and the shaky venue résumé. |
+18887 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T73
2024NA
2023NA
Win+18887
Top 5+2895
Top 10+1251
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): T7 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T26 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T20 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T42 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T38 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 52 |
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
RSA - OWGR #99
LONGSHOT
|
Highest SG Total in this tier at +0.49, powered by a monster short-game/putting combo (+0.19 around, +0.32 flat stick) and +0.28 irons. The catch is the -0.30 driver at a course that hands out birdies to bombers, which is why the course fit adjustment sits at -0.045 — one of the worst in the field. A T12 at the John Deere shows the profile can score on soft, gettable tracks; the +1254 top-10 number is the cleaner way to play him than +19131 to win. |
+19131 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023T56
Win+19131
Top 5+3017
Top 10+1254
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): T20 • Corales Puntacana Championship (Jul 2026): T69 • ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): T21 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T12 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T54 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T32 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 53 |
Mackenzie Hughes
CAN - OWGR #146
LONGSHOT
|
No prior starts at Detroit Golf Club, so the model is working off skills alone — and the skills are lopsided. Elite short game (+0.34) and putting (+0.37) carry a profile weighed down by -0.23 off the tee and -0.22 approach, which is a rough combo at a course where you need to hit fairways and stuff wedges. A T10 at the ISCO is nice, but the -0.034 course fit tells you why the win number sits at +19193. |
+19193 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+19193
Top 5+3028
Top 10+1337
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): T44 • Corales Puntacana Championship (Jul 2026): T20 • ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): T10 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T46 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T10 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 66
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 54 |
Jesper Svensson
SWE - OWGR #168
LONGSHOT
|
The +0.47 SG off the tee is legitimately elite and exactly what Detroit rewards, which is why the course fit adjustment tilts positive (+0.011) even after two straight missed cuts here in 2024 and 2025. Problem: -0.17 irons and -0.15 putting make the birdie conversion math ugly, and a T4 at the RBC Canadian Open is the only real result on the recent card. Model has him at 13.0% for a top 20 — the driver alone keeps him in the conversation. |
+19508 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023T40
Win+19508
Top 5+3334
Top 10+1518
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): T44 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): 78 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T52 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T4 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T9
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
6.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 55 |
Denny McCarthy
USA - OWGR #90
LONGSHOT
|
Fresh off a T3 at the 3M Open, and the putter is doing exactly what it always does — +0.55 SG on the greens leads this tier by a wide margin. Detroit debut is the wrinkle, and the -0.33 off the tee is why the course fit lands at -0.044 despite the +0.46 SG Total. The +1219 top-10 and 16.8% top-20 numbers are where the model sees him; the win price at +20102 is the honest read on a putter-reliant profile at a bomber's course. |
+20102 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+20102
Top 5+2976
Top 10+1219
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): T3 • ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): T39 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T60 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T34 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T44
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History-0.00
| |||