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// BETTING PREVIEW - APRIL 16-19
RBC Heritage
April 16-19, 2026 | Hilton Head Island, South Carolina
⛅ Tournament Weather Forecast
Expect sunny skies with highs in the 79F range and light winds around 7 mph throughout the week. No rain is forecast, making for ideal scoring conditions.
Miller
- Win:Matt Fitzpatrick+1600
- Top 5:Patrick Cantlay+470
- Top 10:J.T. Poston+600
Kevin
- Win:Scottie Scheffler+390
- Top 5:Matt Fitzpatrick+340
- Top 10:Xander Schauffele+160
Andrew
- Win:Cameron Young+1800
- Top 5:Chris Gotterup+1100
- Top 10:Maverick McNealy+300
Kcon
- Win:Cameron Young+1800
- Top 5:Russell Henley+340
- Top 10:Matt Fitzpatrick+160
Parbeh
- Win:Xander Schauffele+1600
- Top 5:Scottie Scheffler+104
- Top 10:Jordan Spieth+270
JB
- Win:TBD-
- Top 5:TBD-
- Top 10:TBD-
Scottie Scheffler is the overwhelming model pick at RBC Heritage, with a 13.7% win probability that dwarfs the field — his +2.73 SG Total leads all 82 players and he won this event in 2024. The real value story, however, lives in the +1700 to +3100 range: Russell Henley (+1911) boasts the field's best course fit adjustment at +0.233 strokes with a 5.0% model win probability and three consecutive top-20 finishes here, while Si Woo Kim (+3080) pairs elite course fit (+0.135) with three consecutive top-10s in 2025. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1759) is the 2023 champion, ranks 4th in SG Approach at +0.80, and carries a +0.056 course history adjustment — a potent combination at a venue that rewards precision iron play on small Bermuda greens.
Scheffler Is the Clear Model Alpha
Scottie Scheffler's 13.7% model win probability is more than double the next closest player (5.4%). He leads the field in SG Total (+2.73) and SG Approach (+1.02), and his Harbour Town history reads 1st-T11-T8 over his last three starts. Even at +628, the model sees significant edge.
Scottie Scheffler
Henley's Course Fit Is Unmatched
Russell Henley posts the field's highest positive course fit adjustment at +0.233 strokes, reflecting his game's natural alignment with Harbour Town's tight fairways and small greens. His results back it up: T8-T12-T19 in his last three trips. At +1911 with a 5.0% model win probability, he's a core play.
Russell Henley
Fitzpatrick: Defending Champion With Edge
The 2023 RBC Heritage winner ranks 4th in the field in SG Approach (+0.80) and carries a +0.056 course history adjustment, third-best in the field. His 5.4% model win probability at +1759 odds represents one of the week's largest model edges at +5.3%.
Matt Fitzpatrick
Si Woo Kim Thrives at Harbour Town
Si Woo Kim's +0.135 course fit and T8 finish here in 2025 signal a player whose precise, creative game matches this Pete Dye design. At +3080 with a 3.1% model win probability and strong recent form (three top-10s already this season), he offers compelling mid-range value.
Si Woo Kim
Cameron Young: Talent Without Course Proof
Despite ranking T-2nd in SG Total (+2.11) and carrying a 5.2% model win probability, Cameron Young's -0.223 course fit and dismal Harbour Town history (T54-T62-T51) flash a significant red flag. His raw ball-striking hasn't translated here — proceed with caution at +1816.
Cameron Young
Aberg's Negative Course Fit Concerns
Ludvig Aberg ranks 5th in SG Total (+1.74) but owns the field's worst course fit among contenders at -0.227, and his lone completed RBC Heritage ended T54. Harbour Town demands shot-shaping finesse that may not suit his power game. At +3180, there's better value elsewhere.
Ludvig Aberg
Hovland Is the Best Longshot Striker
Viktor Hovland ranks 5th in SG Approach (+0.78) and posts an 18.9% top-10 probability — the highest among all longshots — yet sits at +5731. His iron game is tailor-made for Harbour Town's demanding approach shots into tiny greens. A strong top-10 or top-20 play.
Viktor Hovland
Sam Burns: Hot Putter, Strong History
Burns leads the entire field in SG Putting (+0.66) and carries a +0.051 course history adjustment, 5th-best in the field. At +5823 with an 18.3% top-10 probability and 1.32 SG Total, he's a classic Harbour Town contender flying under the radar after inconsistent recent results.
Sam Burns
Morikawa's Iron Game Fits Perfectly
Collin Morikawa ranks 3rd in the field in SG Approach (+0.92) with a positive course fit (+0.067) and finished 9th here in 2024. His 3.5% model win probability at +2714 offers solid value in a tournament where precision iron play is the most predictive skill.
Collin Morikawa
Cantlay's Harbour Town Pedigree Stands Out
Patrick Cantlay owns the field's highest course history adjustment at +0.092 strokes, backed by finishes of 3rd (2023) and T3 (2024). His methodical, mistake-free style is ideal for Harbour Town. At +3710 with a 2.6% model win probability, he's a proven contender at this venue.
Patrick Cantlay
Complete Betting Board
| # | Player | Why They Could Win | Win Odds GolfData API |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Scottie Scheffler
USA - OWGR #1
FAVORITE
|
The defending champion posted a +1.02 SG Approach that leads this field, and the model gives him a 13.74% win probability — more than double the next closest player. His 2026 has been absurdly consistent: a win at AmEx, runner-up at the Masters, and nothing worse than T24 in seven starts. At +628 with a 54.8% top-10 rate, the outright is thin but the top-5 at +160 is one of the better bets on the board. |
+628 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T8
20241
2023T11
Win+628
Top 5+160
Top 10-121
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 2 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T22 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T12 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T4 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T3 • American Express (Jan 2026): 1
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
13.7%
Top 10 Probability
54.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.14
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 2 |
Xander Schauffele
USA - OWGR #9
CONTENDER
|
A +1.0 SG Approach paired with +0.72 OTT makes him one of the most complete ballstrikers in this field, yet Harbour Town hasn't loved him back — T18 in each of the last two years. The -0.21 course fit adjustment is the largest negative ding among contenders, and that's a real concern at a place that demands shot-shaping precision over raw power. At +1755, you're paying contender price for a guy with a mediocre course history and a model win rate (5.39%) that suggests he should be closer to +1900. |
+1755 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T18
2024T18
20234
Win+1755
Top 5+387
Top 10+191
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T9 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T4 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): 3 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T7 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T19 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T41 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
5.4%
Top 10 Probability
34.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.21
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 3 |
Matt Fitzpatrick
USA - OWGR #7
CONTENDER
|
The 2023 champion here just ripped off a win at Valspar and a solo second at THE PLAYERS in back-to-back starts — that's not a heater, that's a different gear. Harbour Town's tight, tree-lined fairways are tailor-made for his precision game, and the +0.056 course history adjustment confirms what the eye test tells you. His 5.38% model win rate at +1759 makes him the best-priced contender on the board and my favorite outright in this tier. |
+1759 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T38
2024T28
20231
Win+1759
Top 5+369
Top 10+180
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T18 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): 1 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): 2 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T41 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T24 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T14 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): 9 • American Express (Jan 2026): T63
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
5.4%
Top 10 Probability
35.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History+0.06
| |||
| 4 |
Cameron Young
USA - OWGR #3
CONTENDER
|
T54, T62, T51 — that's his last three trips to Harbour Town, and the -0.223 course fit adjustment is the worst in this entire contender group. He's been phenomenal lately (won THE PLAYERS, T3 at the Masters), but his bomber profile with +0.81 OTT doesn't translate to a Pete Dye shotmaker's course. The model still gives him 5.22% to win purely on talent, but at +1816 you're ignoring a massive course history red flag. |
+1816 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T54
2024T62
2023T51
Win+1816
Top 5+394
Top 10+199
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T3 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): 1 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T66 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T3 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T52 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T7 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T55 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T41 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T22 • American Express (Jan 2026): T44
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
5.2%
Top 10 Probability
33.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.22
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 5 |
Russell Henley
USA - OWGR #6
CONTENDER
|
Harbour Town fits Henley like a glove — the +0.233 course fit adjustment is the highest among all contenders and favorites, and he's been rock solid here with finishes of T8-T12-T19 over his last three trips. Coming off a T3 at Augusta and T6 at Bay Hill, his ball-striking is peaking at the right time. The +1911 price with a 4.97% model win rate and 34.6% top-10 probability is legitimate value; this is a top-5 play at +390. |
+1911 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T8
2024T12
2023T19
Win+1911
Top 5+390
Top 10+189
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T3 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T6 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T19 • American Express (Jan 2026): T8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
5.0%
Top 10 Probability
34.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.23
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 6 |
Tommy Fleetwood
USA - OWGR #5
CONTENDER
|
Quietly one of the most in-form players on Tour — T4, T7, T8, T10 in four of his last five measured starts — and his 7th-place finish here last year proves the course suits his controlled, fairway-finding game. At +2520, the model's 3.82% win probability actually suggests fair value is closer to +2600, so the outright is priced about right. The sharper play is the top-10 at +233 with a 30% model probability — that's an edge worth taking. |
+2520 |
Tournament History & Odds
20257
2024T49
2023T15
Win+2520
Top 5+489
Top 10+233
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T33 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T10 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T8 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): 49 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T7 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T4
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.8%
Top 10 Probability
30.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 7 |
Collin Morikawa
USA - OWGR #8
CONTENDER
|
That +0.92 SG Approach is second only to Scheffler in this field, and at a course where iron play decides tournaments, that number alone justifies attention. But here's the rub: +0.09 Around the Green and +0.12 Putting are dangerously thin margins at a Pete Dye track where scrambling around tiny, undulating greens is non-negotiable. The +2714 outright has some appeal given his T7-5-T7-1 run from February through the Masters, but the short game profile makes him more of a top-10 play at +260 than a serious win bet. |
+2714 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T54
20249
2023T31
Win+2714
Top 5+552
Top 10+260
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T7 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): 5 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T7 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): 1 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T54
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.5%
Top 10 Probability
27.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 8 |
Si Woo Kim
USA - OWGR #30
CONTENDER
|
The highest course fit adjustment (+0.135) among the value tier, and his T8 here last year showed he can navigate Harbour Town when things are clicking. He's been maddeningly inconsistent — T2 and T3 mixed with multiple MCs — but the early-season form (T2 Farmers, T3 Phoenix, T6 AmEx) was genuinely elite. At +3080 with a 3.15% model win rate, the implied probability gap is small but real; the -0.09 putting is the concern that keeps this from being an auto-play. |
+3080 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T8
2024T18
2023MC
Win+3080
Top 5+576
Top 10+268
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 47 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T10 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T7 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T50 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T42 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T13 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T34 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T45 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T3 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T2 • American Express (Jan 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.1%
Top 10 Probability
27.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.14
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 9 |
Ludvig Aberg
USA - OWGR #17
CONTENDER
|
Four straight top-20 finishes including a T3 at Bay Hill and T5s at both TPC Sawgrass and TPC San Antonio — the raw talent is undeniable at +3180. But here's the catch: that -0.227 course fit adjustment is brutal, suggesting Harbour Town's tight, strategic demands don't match his power-forward profile. The 1.74 SG Total is elite and the model gives him a 25% top-10 rate, so the top-10 at +300 is the smarter play than chasing the outright. |
+3180 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T54
2024T10
2023NA
Win+3180
Top 5+621
Top 10+300
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T21 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T5 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T5 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T3 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T20 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T37 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): MC • American Express (Jan 2026): WD
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.0%
Top 10 Probability
25.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.23
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 10 |
Patrick Cantlay
USA - OWGR #33
CONTENDER
|
3rd in 2023, T3 in 2024, T13 last year — Cantlay's Harbour Town résumé is the most consistent of anyone in this tier, and the +0.092 course history adjustment reflects it. His game is built for this place: +0.64 SG Approach, +0.23 Around the Green, and enough putting to not lose strokes. At +3710 with a 2.62% model win probability, he's slightly underpriced relative to the field — a top-5 at +684 is one of the better value bets on the board. |
+3710 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T13
2024T3
20233
Win+3710
Top 5+684
Top 10+319
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T7 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T37 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T14 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): MC • American Express (Jan 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.6%
Top 10 Probability
23.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.08
Course History+0.09
| |||
| 11 |
Robert MacIntyre
USA - OWGR #12
CONTENDER
|
World No. 12 and riding a T2-4th stretch in his last two significant starts, but the putter is doing all the heavy lifting — that +0.63 SG Putting towers over a modest +0.19 SG Approach. Harbour Town rewards precision with irons more than hot flatstick weeks, which makes the +3971 price feel about right rather than generous. His lone trip here produced a T66, so there's no course comfort to lean on either. Playable as a top-20 dart but not as an outright. |
+3971 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T66
2024NA
2023NA
Win+3971
Top 5+704
Top 10+325
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T2 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): 4 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T20 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T37 • American Express (Jan 2026): T38
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.5%
Top 10 Probability
23.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 12 |
Maverick McNealy
USA - OWGR #29
CONTENDER
|
A T3 here last year is the headline, and it wasn't a fluke — McNealy's balanced SG profile (+0.40 Approach, +0.44 Putting) suits Harbour Town's demand for completeness over any single elite skill. The form has been steady if unspectacular: T18 at Augusta, T13 at Bay Hill, 10th at Torrey Pines. At +4388, the model's 2.23% win rate implies fair odds around +4400, so this is essentially a market-accurate line — look for top-10 value at +360 instead. |
+4388 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T3
2024NA
2023MC
Win+4388
Top 5+790
Top 10+360
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T18 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T21 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T13 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T29 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T13 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): 10
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.2%
Top 10 Probability
21.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.12
Course History+0.05
| |||
| 13 |
Jake Knapp
USA - OWGR #36
CONTENDER
|
Six top-11 finishes in his last seven measured starts — including 11th at Augusta, 6th at Riviera, and 8th at Phoenix — yet the market has him at +4826. The disconnect? A -0.308 course fit adjustment, the worst of anyone featured here, driven by his bomber profile clashing with Harbour Town's premium on control. His 1.56 SG Total and recent form scream talent, but the T62 in his only prior trip confirms the course fit concerns are legitimate. High-ceiling, low-floor play. |
+4826 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T62
2023NA
Win+4826
Top 5+899
Top 10+422
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 11 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T6 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): 6 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T8 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): 8 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T5
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.0%
Top 10 Probability
19.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.31
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 14 |
Jacob Bridgeman
USA - OWGR #18
VALUE
|
Won at Riviera, finished T5 at THE PLAYERS, and has banked six top-18s in his last eight starts — Bridgeman is no longer a longshot by skill, just by market perception at +5497. The 1.35 SG Total and +0.60 Putting are solid, and the -0.075 course fit is nearly neutral. His 1.79% model win rate implies true odds closer to +5500, meaning the market has him pegged correctly — but the top-10 at +438 offers a thin edge given that recent form trajectory. |
+5497 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T61
2024NA
2023NA
Win+5497
Top 5+975
Top 10+438
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T14 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T5 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T18 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): 1 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T8 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T18 • American Express (Jan 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
18.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 15 |
Viktor Hovland
USA - OWGR #22
VALUE
|
Best approach player in this entire batch at +0.78 SG, and at a course that's essentially an iron-play exam, that number alone justifies a look at +5731. The near-zero course fit adjustment (-0.004) means the model sees no structural mismatch, and his T13 here last year showed competence if not brilliance. Inconsistency is the red flag — an MC at Valspar sandwiched between decent results — but the 18.9% top-10 probability at +428 is where the value lives. |
+5731 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T13
2024NA
2023T59
Win+5731
Top 5+926
Top 10+428
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T18 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T13 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T41 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T58 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T10
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.7%
Top 10 Probability
18.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.00
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 16 |
Sam Burns
USA - OWGR #28
VALUE
|
A T7 at Augusta is the freshest data point, but zoom out and the picture gets messy: two MCs in his last six starts and a -0.195 course fit adjustment that ranks among the worst in this group. Burns lives and dies by the putter (+0.66 SG), and when it's working — like at Augusta or his T6 at Pebble — he looks like a top-20 player in the world. At +5823, you're betting on the hot week showing up, which is essentially a coin flip with this form volatility. Pass on the outright; nibble the top-20 if anything. |
+5823 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T13
2024T44
2023T15
Win+5823
Top 5+988
Top 10+446
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T7 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T6 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC • American Express (Jan 2026): T27
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.7%
Top 10 Probability
18.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.20
Course History+0.05
| |||
| 17 |
Min Woo Lee
USA - OWGR #27
VALUE
|
T2 at Pebble Beach, T6 at Bay Hill, T3 in Houston — the recent form screams top-10 contender, but Harbour Town hasn't been kind: a MC in '23 and T61 last year. The -0.264 course fit adjustment is the biggest red flag in this group, suggesting his power-heavy game doesn't translate to this tight, tree-lined track. At +5841, the 17.8% top-10 model number makes the +462 top-10 price interesting, but the outright feels like a pass. |
+5841 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T61
2024NA
2023MC
Win+5841
Top 5+1032
Top 10+462
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T3 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T6 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T12 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T2 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T28 • American Express (Jan 2026): T38
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.7%
Top 10 Probability
17.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.26
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 18 |
Alex Noren
USA - OWGR #19
VALUE
|
Quiet, steady, and exactly the kind of player Harbour Town rewards — short off the tee but sharp with irons (+0.30 Approach) and the best putter in this batch at +0.46 SG. The positive course fit adjustment (+0.139) backs up the eye test: precision over power plays here. No course history to speak of, but at +6479 with an 18% top-10 model rate, the +455 top-10 line looks mispriced by at least a tick. |
+6479 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+6479
Top 5+1028
Top 10+455
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T30 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T30 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T12 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T29 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): MC • American Express (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
18.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.14
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 19 |
Jordan Spieth
USA - OWGR #52
VALUE
|
Runner-up here in 2023, and the course knowledge shows — Harbour Town's demand for creative shotmaking and elite approach play (+0.56 SG) fits Spieth's DNA perfectly. Three T12-or-better finishes in his last five measured starts (Augusta, Valspar, Bay Hill) suggest the game is quietly rounding into form after years of struggle. The +6545 outright is a dart worth throwing given the 1.5% model win rate against an implied 1.7% — but the real value is top-10 at +514 with 16.3% model probability. |
+6545 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T18
2024T39
20232
Win+6545
Top 5+1151
Top 10+514
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T63 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T11 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T11 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T12 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T29 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
16.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.12
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 20 |
J.J. Spaun
USA - OWGR #10
VALUE
|
Fresh off a WIN at the Valero Texas Open, then immediately missed the cut at Augusta — the classic hot-cold volatility that defines Spaun's season (five MCs in his last eight starts outside that victory). That +0.74 SG Approach is genuinely elite and perfect for Harbour Town's iron-play gauntlet, but the putter running at -0.08 makes it hard to trust him over 72 holes. At +6820, the model's 1.44% win probability says this is roughly fair — no edge either direction. |
+6820 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T42
2024NA
2023MC
Win+6820
Top 5+1109
Top 10+496
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): 1 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T24 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T45 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
16.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 21 |
Harris English
USA - OWGR #21
VALUE
|
Nine consecutive made cuts tells one story; zero top-20s at Harbour Town in three tries tells another. English's SG profile is oddly putter-dependent (+0.54 Putting, just +0.12 Approach), which is backwards for what this course typically demands. The +7438 price reflects genuine longshot territory, and the model agrees at 1.33% — he's a steady presence who finishes 20th-30th a lot but rarely threatens. Pass on the outright. |
+7438 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T66
2024T28
2023T63
Win+7438
Top 5+1183
Top 10+519
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T30 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T22 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T24 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T28 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T22 • American Express (Jan 2026): T27
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
16.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 22 |
Jason Day
USA - OWGR #39
VALUE
|
T12 at Augusta and T2 at the American Express bookend a wildly inconsistent 2026 that includes three missed cuts in his last eight starts. His SG profile leans heavily on short game (+0.35 Around Green, +0.42 Putting) with almost nothing from approach (+0.08) — a problematic combination at a course that punishes imprecise iron play. At +7573 the price is fat enough to tempt, but the 1.3% model win rate says it's dead-on fair. Top-20 at better odds is the only play worth considering. |
+7573 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T49
2024T18
2023NA
Win+7573
Top 5+1235
Top 10+545
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T6 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T59 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T24 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T38 • American Express (Jan 2026): T2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
15.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 23 |
Ryan Gerard
USA - OWGR #32
VALUE
|
That +0.69 SG Approach is the second-best mark in this entire longshot group, and it's the skill that matters most at Harbour Town. Two runner-up finishes earlier this season (Pebble Beach, American Express) prove he can contend on Sundays, but the rest of the game — flat-zero around the green, barely positive putting — limits the ceiling. The +8119 outright is a sprinkle at best; the model's 15.1% top-10 rate against +562 implied odds (~15.1%) says there's no real edge anywhere on the board. |
+8119 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T27
2024NA
2023NA
Win+8119
Top 5+1280
Top 10+562
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T38 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T27 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T23 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T28 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T45 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T11 • American Express (Jan 2026): T2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
15.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 24 |
Ben Griffin
USA - OWGR #16
VALUE
|
Ranked 16th in the world but priced at +8339 — that disconnect alone should make you look twice. The problem: three missed cuts in his last five starts, and the form line is genuinely ugly outside a T33 at Augusta. His SG profile (+0.37 Approach, +0.42 Putting, +0.27 Around Green) is well-rounded enough for Harbour Town, but the -0.027 course fit adjustment and spotty recent results make this a wait-and-see. If he opens Thursday with something in the mid-60s, live betting will be the better angle. |
+8339 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023T31
Win+8339
Top 5+1328
Top 10+564
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T33 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T41 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T37 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T28 • American Express (Jan 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
15.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 25 |
Sepp Straka
USA - OWGR #13
VALUE
|
A T5 last year and T13 this year — Straka clearly knows his way around Harbour Town. The 13th-ranked player in the world at +8496 is a pricing error, plain and simple. His +0.52 SG Approach pairs with positive course fit and course history adjustments, and the model gives him a 14.1% top-10 probability that makes the +610 top-10 line genuinely attractive. |
+8496 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T13
2024T5
2023MC
Win+8496
Top 5+1405
Top 10+610
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T8 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T13 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T50 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T2 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T18 • American Express (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
14.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 26 |
Justin Thomas
USA - OWGR #15
VALUE
|
The defending champion at +8698 — go ahead and read that again. JT won this tournament last year, finished T5 the year before, and the books are treating him like a dart throw. His +1.01 SG Total is elite, and the +0.40 Around the Green mark is tailor-made for Harbour Town's tricky greenside complexes. The model's 13.9% top-10 rate versus implied odds screams value on every ticket. |
+8698 |
Tournament History & Odds
20251
2024T5
2023T25
Win+8698
Top 5+1398
Top 10+618
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T30 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T8 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
13.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.15
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 27 |
Akshay Bhatia
USA - OWGR #24
VALUE
|
Between January and March, Bhatia ripped off a T3-T6-T16-WIN-T13 stretch that was the hottest run on Tour. The +0.62 SG Approach is legit elite, and combined with +0.40 putting, he's creating birdies from everywhere when dialed in. At +9117 with a 14.8% model top-10 rate, the missed cut at Augusta looks like a Masters hangover, not a trend — and the top-5 price at +1344 is where I'd attack. |
+9117 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T42
2024T18
2023MC
Win+9117
Top 5+1344
Top 10+577
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): 1 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T16 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T6 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T3 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): MC • American Express (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
14.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 28 |
Sam Stevens
USA - OWGR #45
VALUE
|
Quietly one of the longest hitters in this field at +0.54 OTT, but that's not really what Harbour Town rewards — and the -0.095 course fit adjustment confirms the mismatch. His T24 at Augusta and solo 5th in Houston show legitimate form, and the +1.07 SG Total is strong, but the putting (+0.04) is too flat to trust him contending on these Bermuda greens. A top-20 sprinkle at best. |
+9304 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T54
2024NA
2023MC
Win+9304
Top 5+1501
Top 10+626
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T24 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): 5 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): 58 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T16 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T55 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T35 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T30 • American Express (Jan 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
13.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.10
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 29 |
Chris Gotterup
USA - OWGR #11
VALUE
|
The 11th-ranked player in the world has never played Harbour Town, and the -0.366 course fit adjustment is the worst in this entire group. Gotterup's game is built on power (+0.55 OTT, +1.25 SG Total), but this course wants finesse and precision off the tee. He won Phoenix and went T24 at Augusta, so the talent is undeniable — but at +9531 with no course history and a massive negative fit adjustment, this is a week to watch from the sidelines. |
+9531 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9531
Top 5+1633
Top 10+710
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T24 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T6 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T56 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T18 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T37 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): 1 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
12.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.37
Course History—
| |||
| 30 |
Shane Lowry
USA - OWGR #34
VALUE
|
Best SG Approach number in this batch at +0.68, and it's the single most predictive skill at Harbour Town. Lowry's been inconsistent — back-to-back missed cuts at API and TPC sandwiched between a T2 at Cognizant and a T8 at Pebble — but the positive course fit adjustment (+0.041) and a model giving him 13.7% top-10 odds make the +632 top-10 price interesting. If you're buying the approach game, this is one of the better longshot top-10 tickets on the board. |
+10156 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T18
2024T64
2023T67
Win+10156
Top 5+1488
Top 10+632
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T30 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T2 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T24 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
13.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 31 |
Ryo Hisatsune
USA - OWGR #56
VALUE
|
Five top-13 finishes in his last eight starts is a quietly absurd stretch of consistency for a 23-year-old. Hisatsune's +0.51 SG Approach and +0.40 OTT give him the ball-striking profile Harbour Town demands, and his T18 here last year in his debut suggests course comfort. The flat putting (+0.00) is the obvious concern — at +10711, you need the flatstick to cooperate for four days, and there's no evidence it will. |
+10711 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T18
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10711
Top 5+1611
Top 10+677
Recent Form
Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T8 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T30 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T33 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T45 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T8 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T10 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T2 • American Express (Jan 2026): T44
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
12.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 32 |
Nicolai Hojgaard
USA - OWGR #38
VALUE
|
Power hitters beware: that -0.325 course fit adjustment is a screaming red flag for a player who relies heavily on OTT pop (+0.41). Hojgaard has been excellent lately — 2nd in Houston, T3 at Phoenix, T6 at Cognizant — but he's never seen Harbour Town, and the model's 11.3% top-10 rate suggests the books have this about right at +11505. The +0.57 SG Approach is genuinely good, but the negative course fit discount is too steep to ignore. Pass this week. |
+11505 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+11505
Top 5+1839
Top 10+782
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): 2 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T55 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T27 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T6 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T3 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T22
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
11.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.33
Course History—
| |||
| 33 |
Rickie Fowler
USA - OWGR #63
VALUE
|
Two straight missed cuts heading into Hilton Head, but zoom out and you'll find a T9 at Bay Hill, three T18-or-better finishes in his last six made cuts, and an SG Total of +0.89 that's better than half the players priced above him. The +0.002 course fit adjustment is dead neutral, he's got back-to-back top-18s here in '24 and '25, and the model gives him a 100% make-cut probability. At +11711 to win, the top-10 line at +755 is where the value actually lives — 11.7% model probability against implied odds that don't match. |
+11711 |
Tournament History & Odds
202568
2024T18
2023T15
Win+11711
Top 5+1789
Top 10+755
Recent Form
Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T42 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T9 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T28 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T19 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T18 • American Express (Jan 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
11.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 34 |
Keegan Bradley
USA - OWGR #26
VALUE
|
A Ryder Cup captain who can't find form: MC at both Genesis and Bay Hill, T55 at Valspar, and a -0.088 course fit adjustment that dings his profile further at Harbour Town. The +0.26 Around Green is legitimately useful on these tiny, tricky greens, but +0.17 Approach and a T48-T55 course history the last two years don't inspire confidence. At +12220, there are better longshots in this range. |
+12220 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T18
2024T55
2023T48
Win+12220
Top 5+1813
Top 10+770
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T21 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T55 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T50 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T29 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T43
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
11.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.09
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 35 |
Corey Conners
USA - OWGR #43
VALUE
|
That +0.103 course fit adjustment is quietly one of the best in this tier — Harbour Town rewards precision iron play, and Conners' +0.55 SG Approach is far and away his carrying skill. The problem is the putter: -0.12 SG Putting is a weekly liability, and his T49-T44-T31 Harbour Town history confirms he hasn't been able to overcome it here. The model still likes him for a top-20 (25.1%), so a top-10 dart at +766 has some math behind it if you believe the flatstick cooperates for once. |
+12915 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T49
2024T44
2023T31
Win+12915
Top 5+1861
Top 10+766
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T49 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T14 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T33 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T37 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T70 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
11.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 36 |
J.T. Poston
USA - OWGR #79
VALUE
|
T5 last year, T11 the year before — Poston's recent Harbour Town history is better than anyone else's in this price range. His +0.129 course fit adjustment is the highest in this batch, confirming what the results already show: this layout just works for his game. Three MCs in his last seven starts is ugly, sure, but the model still projects him for a 26% top-20 rate. At +12915, you're getting a course horse at a course-horse price. |
+12915 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T11
2024T5
2023MC
Win+12915
Top 5+1818
Top 10+748
Recent Form
Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T21 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T50 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T37 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T35 • American Express (Jan 2026): T38
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
11.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.13
Course History+0.09
| |||
| 37 |
Kurt Kitayama
USA - OWGR #35
VALUE
|
A T2 at Riviera in February proved the talent ceiling is still elite, but that -0.196 course fit adjustment is a flashing warning light. Kitayama's power profile (+0.43 OTT) and negative short game numbers (-0.10 ATG, -0.06 Putting) are almost perfectly wrong for Harbour Town, and his MC-T33 history here backs that up. The raw SG Total of +0.91 is tantalizing, but this is a course where that skill mix gets neutralized. Fade at +12943. |
+12943 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T33
2023MC
Win+12943
Top 5+1923
Top 10+816
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 51 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T60 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T18 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T2 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T48 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T24 • American Express (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
10.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.20
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 38 |
Matt McCarty
USA - OWGR #48
VALUE
|
No course history at all, but that T24 at Augusta in his Masters debut showed the rookie can handle pressure on tight, demanding layouts. The +0.34 SG Putting leads this entire batch and pairs nicely with a +0.085 course fit adjustment, suggesting his tee-to-green modesty won't hurt him as much here as it would elsewhere. At +14051 he's a pure lottery ticket, but the 9.9% top-10 model probability says the top-10 at +910 has a sliver of edge. |
+14051 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14051
Top 5+2281
Top 10+910
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T24 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T39 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T41 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T24 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T67 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T18 • American Express (Jan 2026): T2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
9.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.09
Course History—
| |||
| 39 |
Wyndham Clark
USA - OWGR #71
VALUE
|
A T3 at Harbour Town in 2024 is the single best result in this entire longshot group, and the +0.034 course history adjustment reflects that. But the wheels have come off since: one made cut in his last five starts before the Masters (where he sneaked a T21), and the -0.171 course fit adjustment suggests last year's podium was the outlier, not the trend. Clark's +0.40 Approach and +0.25 Around Green are legitimately useful skills here, but at +14323, you need everything to click and his recent form says almost nothing is clicking. |
+14323 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T27
2024T3
2023T29
Win+14323
Top 5+2140
Top 10+903
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T21 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T42 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T41 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T58 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T35 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T65 • American Express (Jan 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
10.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.17
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 40 |
Michael Thorbjornsen
USA - OWGR #59
VALUE
|
Highest raw SG Total in this entire batch at +0.99 — the kid flat-out has talent, as the T3 at Phoenix confirmed. Here's the catch: that -0.199 course fit adjustment is the worst of this group, driven by a +0.59 OTT number that Harbour Town simply doesn't reward. Zero course history and a MC in his most recent start make this a pure talent bet at +14463. The ceiling exists, but you're paying for upside the course design actively works against. |
+14463 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14463
Top 5+2225
Top 10+935
Recent Form
Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T14 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T22 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T33 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T78 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T3 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T18 • American Express (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
9.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.20
Course History—
| |||
| 41 |
Sahith Theegala
USA - OWGR #73
VALUE
|
Runner-up here in 2024 and a T5 in 2023 — Theegala simply knows how to score at Harbour Town. The overall SG profile is strong at +0.94, with balanced contributions across every category, and a run of T8-T7-T6-T10 in his last four measured starts screams consistency. The -0.087 course fit adjustment is mildly concerning, but at +14463 with a 0.69% model win rate, the price actually undersells his top-10 equity (10.0%). A top-5 or top-10 ticket at +2138/+896 is where the value lives. |
+14463 |
Tournament History & Odds
202569
20242
2023T5
Win+14463
Top 5+2138
Top 10+896
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T10 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T6 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T22 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T60 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T18 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T7 • American Express (Jan 2026): T8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
10.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.09
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 42 |
Nick Taylor
USA - OWGR #64
VALUE
|
The +0.138 course fit adjustment is the best number in this entire longshot batch — Harbour Town's demands align perfectly with Taylor's +0.41 SG Approach and +0.26 Around the Green. The problem? Three straight T41-or-worse finishes at this event suggest the course history tells a different story than the model. Still, 11.5% top-10 probability at +771 is genuine value if you trust the fit over the track record. A steady but unspectacular recent form line makes this a top-10 sprinkle, not a win bet. |
+14715 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T49
2024T49
2023T41
Win+14715
Top 5+1913
Top 10+771
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T28 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T42 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T38 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T28 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T24 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T28 • American Express (Jan 2026): T27
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
11.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.14
Course History-0.05
| |||
| 43 |
Daniel Berger
USA - OWGR #40
LONGSHOT
|
Second place at Bay Hill two starts ago proved Berger can still compete with anyone when the irons are firing — that +0.58 SG Approach is elite. Last year's T3 here is encouraging, but the around-the-green and putting numbers (-0.21 and -0.14) are genuine liabilities on a course that demands touch. The +15128 price reflects a boom-or-bust profile accurately. If the flat stick cooperates even slightly, the iron play alone could push him into contention, but that's a big if at this number. |
+15128 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T3
2024NA
2023NA
Win+15128
Top 5+2160
Top 10+884
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T66 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): 2 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T32 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T75 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T16 • American Express (Jan 2026): T56
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
10.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 44 |
Sungjae Im
USA - OWGR #72
LONGSHOT
|
Three consecutive top-12 finishes at Harbour Town — T7, T12, T11 — make Im one of the most reliable course horses in this field regardless of price. His +0.41 Around the Green leads this group and matters enormously on Harbour Town's tiny, tricky greens. The glaring hole is a -0.16 SG Approach that needs to at least go neutral for a week. At +15444, you're getting a guy the model gives a 10.3% top-10 probability with a proven floor at this venue — the top-10 at +872 is a smart play. |
+15444 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T11
2024T12
2023T7
Win+15444
Top 5+2163
Top 10+872
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 46 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T60 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T4 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
10.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 45 |
Brian Harman
USA - OWGR #50
LONGSHOT
|
Course fit adjustment of +0.137 combined with a +0.053 course history bump — Harman's profile screams Harbour Town, and three straight finishes of T7-T12-T3 confirm it. The raw SG Total of +0.42 is the weakest in this batch, which is why the model only gives him 0.62% win equity, but Harbour Town has always rewarded his specific brand of scrappy, short-but-accurate golf. Recent form is inconsistent (T11 at TPC Sawgrass bookended by 50th and T39), so temper expectations. Best used as a top-10 play at +864 where the course history provides a real edge. |
+16073 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T3
2024T12
2023T7
Win+16073
Top 5+2138
Top 10+864
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T33 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T39 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T11 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): 50 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T50 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T19 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC • American Express (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
10.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.14
Course History+0.05
| |||
| 46 |
Harry Hall
USA - OWGR #61
LONGSHOT
|
Zero course history at Harbour Town, which makes this a pure talent bet — and the +0.59 SG Putting is genuinely scary on these Bermuda greens. The problem is everything surrounding it: MC at Augusta, MC at TPC Sawgrass, MC at Riviera, MC at Phoenix. That's four missed cuts in his last eight starts. The -0.22 OTT number also doesn't fit a course where positioning off the tee matters enormously through the trees. At +16754, you're paying for upside that hasn't shown up consistently enough this season. Pass. |
+16754 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+16754
Top 5+2210
Top 10+894
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T9 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T24 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC • American Express (Jan 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
10.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History—
| |||
| 47 |
Matt Wallace
USA - OWGR #67
LONGSHOT
|
Fresh off a T2 at the Valero Texas Open, Wallace arrives with the best recent result of anyone at this price point. But zoom out and the picture gets ugly fast — MC, MC, MC, MC in four of his last seven starts before that Texas breakthrough. His only prior Harbour Town appearance was a missed cut in 2023, and the -0.039 course history adjustment reflects that. The +21252 number is massive, and while 8.1% top-10 equity is real, you're essentially betting that last week's form carries over despite months of evidence to the contrary. |
+21252 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023MC
Win+21252
Top 5+2931
Top 10+1141
Recent Form
Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T2 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T51 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T40 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T40 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): MC • American Express (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
8.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History-0.04
| |||
| 48 |
Andrew Putnam
USA - OWGR #92
LONGSHOT
|
Bury the lede at your own risk: a +0.483 course fit adjustment is the single highest number of anyone in this preview. Putnam's profile — short off the tee but strong around the green (+0.34) and on the putting surface (+0.26) — is basically a Harbour Town cheat code. He's also riding a T2 at the American Express and T5 at the Valero in recent starts. The 8.7% top-10 probability at +1050 is genuinely mispriced when you factor in that elite course fit. This is the longshot top-10 bet I'd put real money on. |
+21639 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T18
2023T59
Win+21639
Top 5+2749
Top 10+1050
Recent Form
Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T5 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T44 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T30 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T44 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): MC • American Express (Jan 2026): T2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
8.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.48
Course History-0.05
| |||
| 49 |
Bud Cauley
USA - OWGR #76
LONGSHOT
|
That +0.35 SG Approach is quietly the calling card here — Harbour Town rewards precise iron play more than almost any course on Tour, and Cauley's 100% make cut probability confirms the model sees a floor. The +23066 price is steep, but a 7.5% top-10 probability at +1241 is where the real value lives. He's not winning this, but a top-10 sprinkle has math behind it. |
+23066 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T32
2024NA
2023NA
Win+23066
Top 5+3150
Top 10+1241
Recent Form
Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T21 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): 74 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T18 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T37 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T68 • American Express (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
7.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 50 |
Jordan Smith
USA - OWGR #68
LONGSHOT
|
A solo third at the Valspar — a course that shares Harbour Town's demand for accuracy — is the most relevant data point on his résumé right now. The +0.43 SG Approach and +0.49 OTT combo gives him real birdie equity, but the negative course fit adjustment (-0.078) and zero course history make this a swing-and-miss proposition at +23156. Top-10 at +1137 is interesting if you trust the Valspar correlation. |
+23156 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+23156
Top 5+2896
Top 10+1137
Recent Form
Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T44 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): 3 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T23 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T16 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): MC • American Express (Jan 2026): T27
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
8.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.08
Course History—
| |||
| 51 |
Gary Woodland
USA - OWGR #49
LONGSHOT
|
He literally just won in Houston, so the narrative momentum is real — but the -0.249 course fit adjustment is the worst in this entire batch, and it's not close. Harbour Town punishes his weakness (around the green at -0.25) in a way Houston didn't. Three prior trips here produced a T31 at best. The Houston afterglow is masking a brutal course mismatch; fade at +26449. |
+26449 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T61
2024T64
2023T31
Win+26449
Top 5+3791
Top 10+1465
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T33 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): 1 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T14 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T64 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): MC • American Express (Jan 2026): 72
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
6.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.25
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 52 |
Max Homa
USA - OWGR #117
LONGSHOT
|
A T9 at Augusta two weeks ago is the shiny object, but zoom out: four missed cuts in his last eight starts before the Masters. His Harbour Town history — 70th, T55, MC — practically screams anti-fit, and the model's negative course history adjustment (-0.047) confirms it. Homa is a better golfer than his OWGR suggests, but at +27807 with this venue track record, you're betting on vibes over data. |
+27807 |
Tournament History & Odds
202570
2024T55
2023MC
Win+27807
Top 5+3645
Top 10+1422
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T9 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T13 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T37 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T66 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): MC • American Express (Jan 2026): T27
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
6.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History-0.05
| |||
| 53 |
Andrew Novak
USA - OWGR #53
LONGSHOT
|
Runner-up here last year. That's the entire pitch at +28886, and honestly? It's a pretty good one. The course history adjustment is positive, the SG profile is balanced across all categories with no glaring weakness, and his T14 at the Valero shows he's competitive right now. He won't blow anyone away with raw talent, but Harbour Town rewards guys who do everything competently — Novak's wheelhouse. |
+28886 |
Tournament History & Odds
20252
2024NA
2023NA
Win+28886
Top 5+3751
Top 10+1443
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T14 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T55 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T38 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T47 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T48 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T7 • American Express (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.3%
Top 10 Probability
6.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 54 |
Sudarshan Yellamaraju
USA - OWGR #120
LONGSHOT
|
T5 at TPC Sawgrass, T6 in Houston, T14 at the Valero — three top-15s in his last four starts is a legitimate heater by any standard. The +0.20 SG Putting is his best category, and these Bermuda greens can reward hot flatsticks. The -0.132 course fit adjustment and zero Harbour Town reps are real concerns at +31646, but the recent form trajectory is undeniable. Top-20 at implied odds could be the sharpest play in the longshot tier. |
+31646 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+31646
Top 5+3892
Top 10+1551
Recent Form
Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T14 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T6 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T5 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T37 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T17 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T54 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T56 • American Express (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.3%
Top 10 Probability
6.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.13
Course History—
| |||
| 55 |
Michael Brennan
USA - OWGR #47
LONGSHOT
|
Ranked 47th in the world but priced like a nobody at +31815 — something doesn't compute until you see the -0.314 course fit adjustment, the worst of anyone in this preview. That -0.23 around the green and -0.24 putting is a death sentence at Harbour Town, where scrambling and touch around tiny greens separates contenders from pack-fillers. The T24 at Augusta shows talent, but this is the wrong venue for a bomber who can't putt. Hard pass. |
+31815 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+31815
Top 5+4016
Top 10+1550
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T24 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): 69 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T26 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T52 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T48 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): DQ • American Express (Jan 2026): T56
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.3%
Top 10 Probability
6.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.31
Course History—
| |||
Daily Matchups coming soon.