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// BETTING PREVIEW - JULY 9-12
Genesis Scottish Open
July 9-12, 2026 | North Berwick, Scotland
⛅ Tournament Weather Forecast Expect partly cloudy skies with highs in the 59F range and breezy conditions up to 20 mph throughout the week. No rain is forecast, making for challenging scoring conditions.
🔒 Crew picks drop Wednesday night
Scottie Scheffler is the most compelling play in the Genesis Scottish Open field, with a 10.9% model win probability at +816 odds and the best SG Total (+2.84) and SG Approach (+1.12) in the entire 156-player field. Rory McIlroy, the 2023 champion at The Renaissance Club, profiles as a strong secondary target at +1199 with elite course history (1st, T4, T2 in his last three trips) and a positive course fit adjustment of +0.105 strokes. Further down the board, defending champion Chris Gotterup at +2944 offers genuine value with a 3.3% model win probability, a positive +0.118 course fit, and obvious comfort at The Renaissance Club after his victory here last year.
Scheffler Is a Must-Play Favorite
Scottie Scheffler leads the field in SG Total (+2.84), SG Approach (+1.12), and ranks 2nd in SG Putting (+0.53). His 10.9% model win probability represents a massive edge against implied odds, and his Renaissance Club history (T3 in 2023, T8 in 2025) confirms he handles links-influenced conditions.
Scottie Scheffler
McIlroy's Course History Is Elite
Rory McIlroy won this event in 2023 and has finishes of 1st, T4, and T2 in his last three appearances at The Renaissance Club. His +0.105 course fit adjustment is one of the best among favorites, and his 7.7% model win probability at +1199 odds represents significant value.
Rory McIlroy
Defending Champion Gotterup Has Edge
Chris Gotterup, the defending champion, has the best course fit among the top 10 favorites at +0.118 strokes. At +2944 with a 3.3% model win probability and clear comfort at The Renaissance Club, he offers a compelling profile to run it back.
Chris Gotterup
MacIntyre Combines Course Fit and Putting
Robert MacIntyre, the 2024 champion, has the 3rd-best course history adjustment in the field (+0.077 strokes) and ranks 4th in SG Putting (+0.48). At +5055 with an 18.4% top-10 probability, the Scot playing on home soil is a prime longshot target.
Robert MacIntyre
Fitzpatrick's Iron Play Demands Attention
Matt Fitzpatrick ranks 2nd in the entire field in SG Approach at +0.85 and 4th in SG Total at +1.89, yet sits at +3085 odds. His T4 finish at The Renaissance Club in 2025 shows he's figured out the venue after two previous missed cuts, and his 3.1% model win probability suggests clear value.
Matt Fitzpatrick
Hovland Is the Deepest Sleeper
Viktor Hovland at +5248 has a SG Total of +1.49, which would rank 12th in the field — yet his odds imply he's a 50/1+ outsider. With a 17.5% top-10 probability, he's significantly underpriced by the market relative to his current ball-striking form.
Viktor Hovland
Fleetwood's Course Fit Is Concerning
Despite ranking 5th in SG Total (+1.84) and carrying +2362 odds, Tommy Fleetwood has the worst course fit adjustment among the top 10 favorites at -0.293 strokes. His Renaissance Club results (T34, T34, T6) have been inconsistent, making him a potential fade relative to other favorites.
Tommy Fleetwood
Nicolai Hojgaard Fits The Renaissance Club
Nicolai Hojgaard has the 4th-best course history adjustment in the field at +0.066 strokes and a solid 17.1% top-10 probability at +5090 odds. His SG Total of +0.97 is modest but his venue-specific performance suggests a higher ceiling than his raw numbers indicate.
Nicolai Hojgaard
Rahm Returns with Elite Strokes Gained
Jon Rahm ranks 3rd in the field with a SG Total of +2.01 and carries a 4.4% model win probability at +2157 odds. While he lacks Renaissance Club history, his raw skill level — third-best in a 156-player field — makes him a top-tier contender in any conditions.
Jon Rahm
Kitayama Offers Ball-Striking Upside at Price
Kurt Kitayama ranks 4th in the field in SG Approach (+0.79) and carries a SG Total of +1.27 with a 16.1% top-10 probability at +5492 odds. His elite iron play profiles well for The Renaissance Club's demanding approach shots, making him a strong each-way longshot.
Kurt Kitayama
Complete Betting Board
| # | Player | Why They Could Win | Win Odds GolfData API |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Scottie Scheffler
USA - OWGR #1
CONTENDER
|
World No. 1, +2.84 SG Total, and coming off a runner-up at the Travelers to go with a T4 at the U.S. Open and a solo 3rd at the Byron Nelson — this is the profile of a guy who should be shorter than +816. The model spits out a 10.92% win number and a 46.5% top-10, both field-best. His T3 here in 2023 and T8 in 2025 confirm the links game translates. Fair price on the outright.
|
+816 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T8
2024NA
2023T3
Win+816
Top 5+210
Top 10+115
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 2 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T4 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T12 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 3 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T14 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): 2 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
10.9%
Top 10 Probability
46.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.27
Course History-0.02
|
|||
| 2 |
Rory McIlroy
USA - OWGR #2
CONTENDER
|
The 2023 champion at this event, backed up by a T2 in 2025 and a T4 in 2024 — nobody in the field has a stronger three-year record at the Scottish. At +1199 with a 7.7% model win share and +2.08 SG Total, the price reflects the profile. The T32 at the U.S. Open is the only blemish on an otherwise clean sheet (T7 PGA, T12 Memorial). Playable outright, stronger in the top-10 market at +166.
|
+1199 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T2
2024T4
20231
Win+1199
Top 5+308
Top 10+166
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T32 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T12 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T7 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T19
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
7.7%
Top 10 Probability
37.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History+0.00
|
|||
| 3 |
Xander Schauffele
USA - OWGR #14
CONTENDER
|
The +1988 tag looks generous until you notice the trend: T42 in 2023, T15 in 2024, T8 in 2025 at this event — steady improvement, not a breakthrough. His +1.82 SG Total is real, but the 4.79% model win number ranks behind four other guys shorter than him on the board. T7 at the PGA is the highlight of a form line pockmarked with T29 and T51 finishes. Pass on the outright, consider the top-10 at +247.
|
+1988 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T8
2024T15
2023T42
Win+1988
Top 5+466
Top 10+247
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T51 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T11 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T29 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T7 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T60 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T12
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.8%
Top 10 Probability
28.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History+0.02
|
|||
| 4 |
Jon Rahm
USA - OWGR #11
CONTENDER
|
No prior starts at this event, which is the entire story at +2157. Rahm's +2.01 SG Total and T2 at the PGA say he's playing like a top-five player on the planet, but the MC at the U.S. Open and a two-event sample since suggest rust. The model's 4.43% win share is respectable but the course-fit adjustment is slightly negative. Tough to trust the outright blind — top-20 at reasonable juice is the safer play.
|
+2157 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+2157
Top 5+486
Top 10+253
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.4%
Top 10 Probability
28.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History-0.03
|
|||
| 5 |
Tommy Fleetwood
USA - OWGR #9
CONTENDER
|
Six top-15s in his last eight starts, including a T4 at Memorial and a T5 at Truist, and the links resume includes a T6 here in 2023. At +2362 with a 4.06% model win share and +1.84 SG Total, Fleetwood is exactly the kind of steady-Eddie who cashes top-10 tickets at +249. The outright is fine, but the -0.293 course fit adjustment is a small caution flag. Best value is in the placement markets.
|
+2362 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T34
2024T34
2023T6
Win+2362
Top 5+492
Top 10+249
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T11 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T11 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T4 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T5 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T52
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.1%
Top 10 Probability
28.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.29
Course History+0.05
|
|||
| 6 |
Ludvig Aberg
USA - OWGR #19
CONTENDER
|
T4 in 2024 and T8 in 2025 at this event confirm the links game is a fit, and +0.76 SG Approach headlines a clean statistical profile. The +2369 price and 4.05% model win share put him right in the value pocket with Fleetwood and Rahm. Form is a mixed bag — T4 at the PGA and T8 at Truist balanced against a T55 at Travelers. Reasonable outright dart, better as a top-20 play at 41.7% model equity.
|
+2369 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T8
2024T4
2023MC
Win+2369
Top 5+533
Top 10+279
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T55 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T17 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 39 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T17 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T4 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T8 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T4
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.0%
Top 10 Probability
26.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History+0.03
|
|||
| 7 |
Chris Gotterup
USA - OWGR #7
CONTENDER
|
Defending champion here AND coming off an outright win at the John Deere — that's the hook, and it's a hell of a hook at +2944. The model's 3.28% win share undersells a guy with a positive course-fit adjustment (+0.118) and momentum nobody else in the field can match. His +0.41 SG Putting and +0.47 Approach numbers held up in Illinois and should translate. The outright price is fair; the top-10 at +311 is where the real edge lives.
|
+2944 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
20251
2024MC
2023NA
Win+2944
Top 5+604
Top 10+311
Recent Form
John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): 1 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T27 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T10 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T14 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.3%
Top 10 Probability
24.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.12
Course History+0.02
|
|||
| 8 |
Matt Fitzpatrick
USA - OWGR #4
CONTENDER
|
Three wins and a runner-up in his last nine starts — Zurich (with Alex), RBC Heritage, RBC Canadian Open second, Travelers 4th — Fitzpatrick has quietly become one of the hottest players on tour. His +0.85 SG Approach and +0.51 Around the Green are elite, and a T4 here in 2025 proves the links fit. At +3085 with a 3.14% model win share, this is the value bet of the contender tier. Hammer the outright.
|
+3085 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T4
2024T39
2023MC
Win+3085
Top 5+595
Top 10+295
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 4 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): 22 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): 2 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T36 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T14 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T52 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 1 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 1
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.1%
Top 10 Probability
25.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.25
Course History+0.04
|
|||
| 9 |
Tyrrell Hatton
USA - OWGR #21
CONTENDER
|
A T7 at the U.S. Open confirms the game travels to major-championship setups, and the lone Scottish appearance in the sample — a T6 in 2023 — says this venue suits him just fine. The profile is balanced across the bag (+0.59 Approach, +0.19 Around Green, +0.14 Putting) with a modest +0.027 course-history bump. At +4143 with a 19.5% top-10 number, the outright is thin but the place markets are the play.
|
+4143 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023T6
Win+4143
Top 5+827
Top 10+413
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T7 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.4%
Top 10 Probability
19.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History+0.03
|
|||
| 10 |
Wyndham Clark
USA - OWGR #8
CONTENDER
|
The reigning U.S. Open champion — yes, he won at Oakmont in June — is priced at +4391 in a field where the model has him at 2.23% to win and 18.6% top-10. Three straight Scottish appearances all inside the top-25 (T25, T10, T11) plus a +0.058 finishing kit anchored by the field's best Putting mark (+0.58) makes this the most complete resume in the value tier. The number should be shorter; take it before it moves.
|
+4391 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T11
2024T10
2023T25
Win+4391
Top 5+887
Top 10+437
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T5 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): 1 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T11 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 3 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 1 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T20 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.2%
Top 10 Probability
18.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History+0.05
|
|||
| 11 |
Justin Thomas
USA - OWGR #18
CONTENDER
|
The full-bag SG profile is the best argument here — +1.55 Total with positives across OTT, Approach, Around Green, and Putting, and a T4 at the PGA Championship proves the ceiling is still major-caliber. The problem: three Scottish starts have produced T60, T62, T22, and the model tags him with a -0.073 course-fit and -0.055 history adjustment. At +4739 in a links setup he's never solved, this is a fade for outrights.
|
+4739 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T22
2024T62
2023T60
Win+4739
Top 5+937
Top 10+474
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T17 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T19 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T13 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T4 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 13 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T77
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.1%
Top 10 Probability
17.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History-0.06
|
|||
| 12 |
Min Woo Lee
USA - OWGR #39
CONTENDER
|
The +0.042 course-fit adjustment is the highest in this batch outside Hojgaard, and the +0.58 SG OTT number is exactly the profile that thrives when the wind gets up. Recent form is a genuine concern though — MC at the U.S. Open, MC at Memorial, T62 at Travelers — and the Scottish history (MC, 73, T35) doesn't inspire either. At +4938 the ballstriking upside is real, but you're paying for talent, not trajectory.
|
+4938 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
202473
2023T35
Win+4938
Top 5+958
Top 10+464
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T62 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T18 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T14 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T18 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T60
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.0%
Top 10 Probability
17.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History-0.02
|
|||
| 13 |
Robert MacIntyre
USA - OWGR #20
VALUE
|
The 2024 champion here and runner-up in 2023, priced at +5055 with a +0.077 course-history adjustment that's the biggest bump in the field. The 2026 season has been choppy — MC at the PGA, MC at Memorial, T39 at the U.S. Open — but a T10 at Travelers and T15 at the Canadian suggest the game is arriving at the right time. Model has him at 18.4% top-10; the outright number reflects form fears more than course fit, and that's an edge.
|
+5055 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T65
20241
20232
Win+5055
Top 5+924
Top 10+443
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T10 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T39 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T15 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T42 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T60 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.9%
Top 10 Probability
18.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.08
Course History+0.08
|
|||
| 14 |
Nicolai Hojgaard
USA - OWGR #34
VALUE
|
The +0.189 course-fit adjustment is the largest in this entire tier, and it's backed by real evidence: T6 in 2023, T39 in 2024, T4 in 2025 at this event. A T2 at Truist proves the ceiling, though three MCs in the last four (U.S. Open, Canadian, Memorial) is a real red flag. At +5090 with 17.1% top-10, the course-fit angle makes this a live place-market ticket even if the outright feels aggressive.
|
+5090 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T4
2024T39
2023T6
Win+5090
Top 5+992
Top 10+484
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T2 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T55
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.9%
Top 10 Probability
17.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.19
Course History+0.07
|
|||
| 15 |
Viktor Hovland
USA - OWGR #13
VALUE
|
Fresh off an outright at the Travelers Championship and a solo 3rd at the RBC Canadian Open, but the model absolutely hates the links fit — a -0.199 course-fit adjustment is the ugliest number in this group by a wide margin. Three Scottish appearances have topped out at T11, and the +0.73 SG Approach is elite but wasted if the driver misbehaves in wind. At +5248 you're betting on raw form overriding a genuine structural mismatch. Pass.
|
+5248 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T11
2024T46
2023T25
Win+5248
Top 5+973
Top 10+472
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 1 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): 3 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T31 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.9%
Top 10 Probability
17.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.20
Course History-0.01
|
|||
| 16 |
Kurt Kitayama
USA - OWGR #33
VALUE
|
Six consecutive made cuts with a T8 at Heritage, T9 at Miami, and T10 at the PGA Championship — the ballstriker profile (+0.59 OTT, +0.79 Approach) is exactly the kind that translates to links wind. The catch is a putter running at -0.09 and a modest Scottish resume (T54 in 2023, T34 in 2024, skipped 2025). At +5492 the top-20 markets (29.0% model number) are the more honest bet than the outright.
|
+5492 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T34
2023T54
Win+5492
Top 5+1066
Top 10+521
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T25 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T53 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T22 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T10 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T19 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T9 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
16.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.00
Course History+0.05
|
|||
| 17 |
Alex Fitzpatrick
USA - OWGR #62
VALUE
|
A Zurich Classic win alongside brother Matt in April, followed by a solo 4th at the Truist and a T6 at Memorial, means the form profile is genuinely elite right now. The +0.65 SG Approach and +1.31 Total back up the results, and at +5664 with a 16.7% top-10 probability, the outright number has value even if 0-for-3 in cuts made at this event (all MCs from '23-'25) is a real red flag. Play him top-20 (30.2% model) instead of outright.
|
+5664 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023MC
Win+5664
Top 5+1033
Top 10+498
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T7 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T20 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T6 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T75 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 4 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T9 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 1
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.7%
Top 10 Probability
16.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.21
Course History-0.01
|
|||
| 18 |
Patrick Cantlay
USA - OWGR #36
VALUE
|
+0.78 SG Approach and +1.53 Total say this is a top-15 ballstriker in the world, but the résumé at this event is a single MC in 2023 and no starts since. The links transition is the actual question at +6143 — a T14 at Travelers and T17 at Memorial are fine, not scary. The -0.106 course fit and 1.6% model win number confirm he's priced roughly correctly. Pass on the outright, consider top-20 at 29.6%.
|
+6143 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023MC
Win+6143
Top 5+1130
Top 10+522
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T17 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T10 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
16.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.11
Course History-0.00
|
|||
| 19 |
Kristoffer Reitan
USA - OWGR #25
VALUE
|
A Truist Championship win in May and a runner-up at Zurich sandwiched around a T6 at Memorial — that's a legitimate breakout stretch from the world No. 25. Add a T13 in his lone start here in 2025 and a positive course-fit and course-history adjustment (rare in this tier), and +6726 starts looking short rather than long. The 14.4% top-10 number is the play, but the outright ticket is defensible given the trajectory.
|
+6726 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T13
2024NA
2023NA
Win+6726
Top 5+1259
Top 10+593
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T22 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T60 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T6 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 1 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T14 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
14.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.01
|
|||
| 20 |
Adam Scott
USA - OWGR #55
VALUE
|
Runner-up at this event in 2024 and the +0.042 course-history adjustment is one of the largest in the field — the links fit is real and documented. The problem is -0.15 SG Putting and a MC at the U.S. Open in his most recent major, with the ballstriking (+0.61 Approach) doing all the heavy lifting. At +8923 with a 12.3% top-10, the place markets are more interesting than the win ticket. Top-10 or top-20 only.
|
+8923 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T17
20242
2023MC
Win+8923
Top 5+1543
Top 10+713
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 65 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T12 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T24 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T4
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
12.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.04
|
|||
| 21 |
Shane Lowry
USA - OWGR #45
VALUE
|
A links specialist priced at +8923 sounds like a bargain until you see the -0.159 course fit and a form line of T22-MC-T29-T22 across his last four starts. The +0.73 SG Approach is legit and the T12 here in 2023 is fine, but the model has him at just 1.11% to win for a reason — nothing about the current stretch suggests contention. Fade the outright, consider make-cut (64.9%) as a small hedge.
|
+8923 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023T12
Win+8923
Top 5+1481
Top 10+677
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T22 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T29 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T22 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
12.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.16
Course History+0.01
|
|||
| 22 |
Si Woo Kim
USA - OWGR #22
VALUE
|
The SG profile is loud — +1.53 Total, +0.74 Approach, +0.53 OTT — and the recent form (solo 2nd at Byron Nelson, solo 3rd at Heritage, T4 at Miami) suggests a player rounding into peak shape. But the -0.294 course-fit adjustment is the largest negative in this batch, and T34/T26/MC in his three prior starts here tells you links golf isn't his medium. The talent argues for value at +8936; the fit argues against it. Small outright at best.
|
+8936 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T34
2024T26
2023MC
Win+8936
Top 5+1475
Top 10+668
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T44 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T10 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 2 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T65 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T4 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
13.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.29
Course History-0.01
|
|||
| 23 |
J.J. Spaun
USA - OWGR #12
VALUE
|
The world No. 12 with +0.83 SG Approach and a T7 at Travelers has the ballstriking to win any given week, but this specific week is a problem. A MC here in 2025 is his only data point, the -0.192 course-fit adjustment is severely negative, and he also missed the U.S. Open cut. At +9834 with a 1.01% model win number, the price actually matches the profile — which is exactly why there's no edge. Pass.
|
+9834 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9834
Top 5+1610
Top 10+727
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T7 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T12 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T6 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T5 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T14 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
12.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.19
Course History-0.01
|
|||
| 24 |
Marco Penge
USA - OWGR #48
VALUE
|
Solo 2nd at this event in 2025 gives him the biggest course-history adjustment (+0.041) and course-fit adjustment (+0.281) in this tier by a wide margin — the links fit is elite. The problem is the current form: MC at the PGA, T30 at Zurich, T77 at Heritage, and a pedestrian +0.31 SG Total across the sample. At +10829 he's a defensible dart based purely on horses-for-courses, but the underlying numbers say fade. Top-20 (20.3%) is the smarter angle.
|
+10829 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T2
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10829
Top 5+1855
Top 10+867
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T30 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T77
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
10.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.28
Course History+0.04
|
|||
| 25 |
David Puig
USA - OWGR #64
VALUE
|
First career start at this event and the +0.167 course-fit adjustment is one of the friendlier marks in the field, driven by a +0.54 SG Off-the-Tee that plays well in Scottish wind. The problem: a missed cut at the U.S. Open and a -0.19 SG Approach undercut the ceiling. At +10991 with a 0.9% model win probability, this is a place-and-show dart at best — the outright number is fair, not generous, and there's no course history to lean on.
|
+10991 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10991
Top 5+1938
Top 10+897
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
10.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.17
Course History—
|
|||
| 26 |
Jake Knapp
USA - OWGR #44
VALUE
|
The T22 in his lone start here in 2025 is fine, but the trend line since is ugly — T74 at Harbour Town, MC at the U.S. Open, T55 at Travelers. Course fit grades out well at +0.123 and the +0.86 SG Total holds up, yet a 9.8% top-10 model number at +11221 doesn't move the needle when the ball-striking (+0.28 OTT, +0.20 APP) is merely okay for this field. Pass on the outright, small sprinkle on the top 20 at +555ish if you must.
|
+11221 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T22
2024NA
2023NA
Win+11221
Top 5+1983
Top 10+916
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T55 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T74
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
9.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.12
Course History+0.01
|
|||
| 27 |
Tom Kim
USA - OWGR #66
VALUE
|
A solo 3rd at the U.S. Open is the headline, and it's backed by three straight top-20s at this event (T6 in '23, T15 in '24, T17 in '25) plus the largest positive course-history adjustment in this longshot group at +0.099. The catch is a -0.156 course-fit mark and a T46 at the John Deere that suggests the Oakmont week may have been a spike. At +11264, the 10.8% top-10 model probability makes the top-10 ticket more interesting than the outright.
|
+11264 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T17
2024T15
2023T6
Win+11264
Top 5+1804
Top 10+829
Recent Form
John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T46 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): 3 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T15 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T54 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T54 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T6 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
10.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.16
Course History+0.10
|
|||
| 28 |
Aaron Rai
USA - OWGR #16
VALUE
|
PGA Championship winner in May, T11 at the U.S. Open, and a T4 at this event in 2024 — the résumé at +11550 is legitimately absurd for the price. The +1.13 SG Total and +0.58 SG Approach lead this group, and the OWGR #16 tag confirms he's miscast as a longshot. The one caution is a -0.383 course-fit adjustment that the model doesn't love, but for a links-bred Englishman with a major already this season, the outright is a clear overlay.
|
+11550 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T47
2024T4
2023MC
Win+11550
Top 5+1948
Top 10+859
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T11 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): 1 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): 5 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
10.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.38
Course History+0.04
|
|||
| 29 |
Bud Cauley
USA - OWGR #38
VALUE
|
A win at the RBC Canadian Open and a T14 at Travelers say the form is real, and the +1.13 SG Total with +0.54 Approach and +0.26 Around-the-Green backs it up statistically. The concern is a T55 in his only start at this event in 2025 and a -0.116 course-fit number that flags the links transition. At +11876 with a 10.2% top-10 probability, the outright is a stretch but the top-20 at plus money has value given the ball-striking floor.
|
+11876 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T55
2024NA
2023NA
Win+11876
Top 5+1970
Top 10+883
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T56 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): 1 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T22 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 7
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
10.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.12
Course History-0.01
|
|||
| 30 |
Eugenio Chacarra
USA - OWGR #59
VALUE
|
No recent form data listed and a missed cut in his only prior start here in 2025 — that's a rough combo at +11924. The underlying numbers aren't bad (+0.98 SG Total, +0.48 OTT, +0.35 APP), but with a -0.023 course-fit adjustment and no evidence of current sharpness, the 0.83% model win number feels charitable. Hard to see a win path here; the LIV-to-links leap has burned bettors before and there's no reason to lead the charge.
|
+11924 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+11924
Top 5+1855
Top 10+835
Recent Form
—
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
10.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History-0.01
|
|||
| 31 |
Angel Ayora
USA - OWGR #108
VALUE
|
OWGR #108 making his event debut with a single MC at the PGA Championship as his only listed recent data point — that's a thin file for a +14220 dart. The +0.099 course-fit adjustment and +0.49 SG Off-the-Tee suggest the profile isn't offensive for links golf, but a +0.63 SG Total is the lowest in this batch and the 0.7% model win probability confirms it. Skip the outright, and even the top-20 at +1200-plus is a stretch.
|
+14220 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14220
Top 5+2467
Top 10+1095
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History—
|
|||
| 32 |
Michael Brennan
USA - OWGR #61
VALUE
|
The +0.84 SG Off-the-Tee is the loudest number in this longshot group and the +0.155 course-fit adjustment reads like a links match, but the short game is a mess — -0.25 Around-the-Green and -0.17 Putting will get exposed on Scottish surfaces. A T6 at Colonial shows the ceiling, but MCs at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, RBC Canadian, and Zurich show the floor. At +14788 with no course history, this is a driving-stat lottery ticket at best.
|
+14788 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14788
Top 5+2402
Top 10+1073
Recent Form
John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T33 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T6 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): 81 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.15
Course History—
|
|||
| 33 |
Harris English
USA - OWGR #29
LONGSHOT
|
OWGR #29 with a +1.05 SG Total and a T4 at Harbour Town on the resume — this is a legitimately strong ball-striker priced like an afterthought at +15484. The problem is a -0.132 course-fit adjustment and back-to-back pedestrian trips here (T22 in '25, T34 in '24), which is why the model spits out just 0.64% to win. Top-10 at +961 is the more honest way to play him; the outright is a pass.
|
+15484 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T22
2024T34
2023NA
Win+15484
Top 5+2231
Top 10+961
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T38 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T17 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T18 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T24 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T55 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T4
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
9.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.13
Course History+0.03
|
|||
| 34 |
Matt Wallace
USA - OWGR #69
LONGSHOT
|
The +0.44 SG Approach is the only number worth writing home about, and everything else in the profile is flat — 0.10 putting, -0.05 off the tee, and a course history reading MC-T50-T42 that actively argues against him. Recent form backs the skepticism: T33 at the John Deere, an MC in Canada, and nothing better than T23 going back to April. At +15648 with a 0.64% model win number, this is a fade.
|
+15648 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T50
2024MC
2023T42
Win+15648
Top 5+2279
Top 10+980
Recent Form
John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T33 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T30 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T55
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
9.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History+0.00
|
|||
| 35 |
Aldrich Potgieter
USA - OWGR #77
LONGSHOT
|
The course-fit adjustment is a monster +0.327 — one of the largest in the entire field — and the +0.53 SG Off-the-Tee explains why this venue should suit the young bomber. A T8 at the RBC Canadian Open shows the ceiling, but a missed cut here in '25 and another MC at the John Deere are real warnings. At +16073 with 0.62% to win, he's a defensible small-stakes outright given the fit, but the Top 20 at 15.5% is where the value actually lives.
|
+16073 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+16073
Top 5+2790
Top 10+1265
Recent Form
John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T8 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T48 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T14 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.33
Course History-0.01
|
|||
| 36 |
Ryan Gerard
USA - OWGR #28
LONGSHOT
|
Runner-up at the Memorial and a T10 at Colonial in his last five starts — that's contender-level form buried under an OWGR of #28 that most casual bettors will ignore. The +1.01 SG Total and +0.51 Approach numbers are legit, but the course-fit adjustment sits at -0.126 and his lone trip here was a 74th-place finish in '25. Priced at +16801 with a 0.59% model number, the outright is fair; the Top 10 at +1185 is the more honest bet on the ball-striking.
|
+16801 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
202574
2024NA
2023NA
Win+16801
Top 5+2654
Top 10+1185
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T44 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 2 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T10 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T70 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T65 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 34 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.13
Course History-0.02
|
|||
| 37 |
Eric Cole
USA - OWGR #67
LONGSHOT
|
Runner-up at Colonial, 8th at the Memorial, T6 at Myrtle Beach — the form line is quietly one of the best in this longshot tier and nobody's paying attention. The +0.46 putting and +0.29 around-the-green numbers travel well to links golf, and prior trips here (T46 in '24, T60 in '23) suggest he's at least competent on the surface. At +16801 with a 0.59% win projection, the outright is a stretch but Top 20 at 17.3% is a real number for a player this hot.
|
+16801 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T46
2023T60
Win+16801
Top 5+2693
Top 10+1151
Recent Form
John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T39 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T38 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 8 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): 2 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T31 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T6 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History-0.00
|
|||
| 38 |
Victor Perez
USA - OWGR #198
LONGSHOT
|
No recent form listed and an OWGR of #198 is a red flag you don't ignore at any price, but the course history is genuinely interesting: T10 in '24, T35 in '23, T43 in '25. The +0.4 SG Off-the-Tee fits the venue and the +0.06 course-history adjustment is one of the few positives in this range. At +16849 without knowing what he's been doing lately, this is a blind dart throw — hard pass on the outright, defensible flier for Top 20.
|
+16849 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T43
2024T10
2023T35
Win+16849
Top 5+2423
Top 10+1035
Recent Form
—
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.09
Course History+0.06
|
|||
| 39 |
Pierceson Coody
USA - OWGR #58
LONGSHOT
|
Debuting here with zero course history and a profile built on +0.45 SG Off-the-Tee and a modest +0.085 fit adjustment — that's a thin resume for a +17651 outright. The T23 at the U.S. Open is the best data point, but the rest of the form is a grab bag of T39, MC, and T22 finishes that don't scream links-week breakthrough. Model gives him 0.56% to win; the numbers say pass on the outright and look elsewhere for value.
|
+17651 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+17651
Top 5+2781
Top 10+1184
Recent Form
John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T39 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T22 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T24 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.09
Course History—
|
|||
| 40 |
Ryan Fox
USA - OWGR #56
LONGSHOT
|
A T12 here in 2023 is the ceiling and the +0.121 course-fit adjustment says the game travels, but T57 and T65 in the two most recent trips undercut the optimism. Form is steady rather than spectacular — T8 at the RBC Canadian Open and T23 at the U.S. Open are the highlights alongside a lot of T27-T35 noise. At +17651 with a 0.56% win number, the outright is a stretch; Top 20 at 17.7% is where any interest should sit.
|
+17651 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T65
2024T57
2023T12
Win+17651
Top 5+2612
Top 10+1104
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T66 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T8 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T27 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 67 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.12
Course History-0.02
|
|||
| 41 |
Sahith Theegala
USA - OWGR #76
LONGSHOT
|
A T4 here in 2024 is the anchor point for anyone betting Theegala at +18137, and the profile still holds up with +0.33 SG Approach and elite +0.29 Around-the-Green numbers that travel to links turf. Recent form is mediocre — T51 at the Travelers, T45 at the Canadian Open — but the T11 at the U.S. Open shows the ceiling is intact in a major setup. Model gives him 7.4% to crack the top 10, which is fair value at this number for a Top 20 dart.
|
+18137 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T4
2023MC
Win+18137
Top 5+2833
Top 10+1245
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T51 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T11 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T45 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T32 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T60 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T60 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 69 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T24 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.01
|
|||
| 42 |
Daniel Hillier
USA - OWGR #102
LONGSHOT
|
One recent start on the sheet (T26 at the PGA Championship) is a massive red flag when you're asked to lay action at +18948, even with the +0.49 SG Off-the-Tee that theoretically fits links golf. Two made cuts in three tries here (T46 in 2024, T54 in 2023) don't scream contender either, and the -0.33 Around-the-Green number will get exposed in firm coastal conditions. Hard to build a win case — pass at every number.
|
+18948 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T46
2023T54
Win+18948
Top 5+2676
Top 10+1166
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T26
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.02
|
|||
| 43 |
Doug Ghim
USA - OWGR #155
LONGSHOT
|
A T6 at the John Deere and a T15 at the Canadian Open headline a genuinely strong six-start run that also includes a T6 at the Zurich and a T19 at Myrtle Beach — that's four top-20s in six tries. The +0.85 SG Total is legit, but two missed cuts here (2024, 2023) and a -0.118 course-fit adjustment tell you the game hasn't translated to this venue before. At +19255 he's a Top 20 flyer at best, not a win bet.
|
+19255 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023MC
Win+19255
Top 5+2588
Top 10+1107
Recent Form
John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T6 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T15 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T28 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T31 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T19 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
8.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.12
Course History+-0.00
|
|||
| 44 |
Haotong Li
USA - OWGR #100
LONGSHOT
|
Four missed cuts in his last seven starts, including MCs at the John Deere, Charles Schwab, Byron Nelson, Myrtle Beach, and Zurich — that's not a form line you back at +20661 no matter the course fit. The +0.064 fit adjustment and T21 here in 2024 are the only sells, and they're not enough when the SG Total sits at just +0.16 and Around-the-Green bleeds at -0.26. Straight fade.
|
+20661 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T21
2023MC
Win+20661
Top 5+3233
Top 10+1355
Recent Form
John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T60 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): MC • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
6.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History+0.02
|
|||
| 45 |
Max Greyserman
USA - OWGR #75
LONGSHOT
|
The +0.104 course-fit adjustment is one of the better marks in this longshot tier, and a T9 at the Byron Nelson plus T14 at the PGA Championship show the ceiling is still very much alive. Problem is the floor — three missed cuts in his last four starts (John Deere, Canadian Open, Charles Schwab) makes the +20879 price feel about right, not generous. Top 20 ticket only; the win equity at 0.48% is thin.
|
+20879 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T21
2023NA
Win+20879
Top 5+3051
Top 10+1335
Recent Form
John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T9 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T14 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T31 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History+0.01
|
|||
| 46 |
Mac Meissner
USA - OWGR #84
LONGSHOT
|
A T3 at the Charles Schwab, T6 at the John Deere, T9 at Myrtle Beach, and T10 at the Zurich — that's four top-10s in his last eight starts, and nobody's talking about him at +21177. The +0.36 SG Putting leads this group and the +0.78 SG Total is legitimate contender territory. No course history is the only real hesitation, but a 7.4% top-10 number at this price is a live Top 10/Top 20 play.
|
+21177 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+21177
Top 5+3017
Top 10+1253
Recent Form
John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T6 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T44 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T46 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T3 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T31 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T9 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T10
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History—
|
|||
| 47 |
Brooks Koepka
USA - OWGR #115
LONGSHOT
|
MC at the U.S. Open, WD from the Canadian Open, T55 at the PGA Championship — the once-untouchable major résumé is now a shell, and there's zero course history at this event to lean on. The +0.077 fit adjustment and +0.30 SG Approach hint the raw tools haven't fully evaporated, but you're betting name equity at +21177, not form. Easy fade unless you're chasing a lightning-strike Top 20.
|
+21177 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+21177
Top 5+3254
Top 10+1429
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): WD • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T14 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T55 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T11 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
6.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.08
Course History—
|
|||
| 48 |
Alex Noren
USA - OWGR #24
LONGSHOT
|
OWGR #24 in a longshot tier is genuinely unusual, and the +0.46 SG Putting plus a solo 9th at the Memorial back up the ranking. The catch is a brutal -0.229 course-fit adjustment — the worst in this group — plus MCs here in 2025 and 2023 with only a T10 in 2024 to show for three tries. At +21252 the Top 10 ticket at +1181 is the play; the outright is a hard pass given the fit.
|
+21252 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T10
2023MC
Win+21252
Top 5+2820
Top 10+1181
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T55 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 9 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T31 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T7 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T65
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.23
Course History+0.01
|
|||
| 49 |
Hennie Du Plessis
USA - OWGR #121
LONGSHOT
|
One data point of recent form — a missed cut at the U.S. Open — is thin gruel for a +21329 shot, and the OWGR #121 ranking tells you why the market has him this deep. The +0.44 SG OTT and +0.37 Approach hint at real ball-striking, and the +0.072 course-fit adjustment is a mild plus, but a -0.35 putter and a 0.47% model win probability make this a pass. Hard to see a realistic win path.
|
+21329 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+21329
Top 5+3182
Top 10+1417
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
6.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History—
|
|||
| 50 |
Alex Smalley
USA - OWGR #43
LONGSHOT
|
A T2 at the PGA Championship, T3 at the Charles Schwab, and T2 at the Zurich mean Smalley has three top-3s in his last eight starts, yet he's priced at +22122 like a stiff. OWGR #43 with +0.78 SG Total is comfortably the profile of a mid-tier contender, not a longshot, and while three straight subpar results (T47, MC, MC) explain some of the drift, the -0.07 course-fit is the only real red flag. This is a live overlay for top 10 at +1344.
|
+22122 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T34
2024NA
2023MC
Win+22122
Top 5+3220
Top 10+1344
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T47 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T3 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T2 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T17 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T7 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
6.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History+0.01
|
|||
| 51 |
Rasmus Hojgaard
USA - OWGR #86
LONGSHOT
|
The +0.26 course-fit adjustment is one of the largest positive marks in this entire longshot tier, and links golf has historically been where Hojgaard's game travels best. That said, the recent form is ugly — an MC at the Charles Schwab, T62 at Byron Nelson, T65 at the PGA — and the -0.1 SG Approach is a problem at any Scottish setup. At +22542 the course-fit is the only reason to click, and it's not quite enough.
|
+22542 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T21
2023MC
Win+22542
Top 5+3575
Top 10+1523
Recent Form
Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T62 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T65 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
6.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.26
Course History-0.03
|
|||
| 52 |
Michael Thorbjornsen
USA - OWGR #83
LONGSHOT
|
Three missed cuts in his last five starts (John Deere, Byron Nelson, PGA Championship) is a genuine concern for a player making his Scottish Open debut with zero prior links reps. The underlying numbers still look fine — +0.65 SG Total, +0.4 OTT, OWGR #83 — and the model gives him a respectable 7.1% top-10 number at +1306. But at +22542 to win with no course history and a cold stretch, the outright is a fade even if the top-20 price has some value.
|
+22542 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+22542
Top 5+3096
Top 10+1306
Recent Form
John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T54 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): 16 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T53 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T13 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
7.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History—
|
|||
| 53 |
Corey Conners
USA - OWGR #52
LONGSHOT
|
The +0.52 SG Approach is elite in this field and Conners owns a T10 in 2024 and T19 in 2023 at this event, so the profile screams live longshot. Then you see the -0.186 course-fit adjustment — one of the worst marks in the tier — and the recent T7 at the Travelers gets a lot less exciting. OWGR #52 at +22977 is a fair price, not a great one, and the model's 6.6% top-10 confirms he's a pass unless the putter suddenly cooperates.
|
+22977 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T47
2024T10
2023T19
Win+22977
Top 5+3313
Top 10+1419
Recent Form
Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T7 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 53 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T55 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T31 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T55
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
6.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.19
Course History-0.01
|
|||
| 54 |
Andrew Novak
USA - OWGR #65
LONGSHOT
|
A T13 finish here in 2025 is the best course result in this longshot cluster, and the underlying numbers (+0.64 SG Total, +0.39 Approach, +0.13 Around Green) back up why Novak sits at OWGR #65. The problem is the current form — MC at the John Deere, MC at the U.S. Open, MC at the Memorial in his last four events. At +23066 with a 6.9% top-10 model number, the make-cut and top-20 markets are more interesting than the outright.
|
+23066 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T13
2024T70
2023NA
Win+23066
Top 5+3184
Top 10+1353
Recent Form
John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T54 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T24 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T65 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T10 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
6.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History-0.02
|
|||
| 55 |
Tom McKibbin
USA - OWGR #136
LONGSHOT
|
One competitive round since May is a genuinely alarming data point, and that lone start was an MC at the PGA Championship. The +0.59 SG OTT is legitimately elite for this tier and the +0.013 course-history adjustment is neutral-positive off a T35 in 2023, but OWGR #136 and a -0.22 putter cap the ceiling. At +24490 with essentially no recent reps, the price is fair and the bet is a hard pass.
|
+24490 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023T35
Win+24490
Top 5+3410
Top 10+1427
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
6.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.06
Course History+0.01
|
|||