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// BETTING PREVIEW - JUNE 25-28
Travelers Championship
June 25-28, 2026 | Cromwell, Connecticut
⛅ Tournament Weather Forecast
Expect partly cloudy skies with highs in the 82F range and light winds around 5 mph throughout the week. Some rain is possible, making for ideal scoring conditions.
🔒 Crew picks drop Wednesday night
Scottie Scheffler is the most compelling play on the board this week at TPC River Highlands, with our model projecting a 14.5% win probability against implied odds of just 0.1% — a staggering edge backed by his #1 ranking in SG Total (+2.80) and SG Approach (+1.08). The 2024 champion of this event also carries strong course history with finishes of T6, 1st, and T4 in his last three trips. Below him, Tommy Fleetwood (+1874) and Si Woo Kim (+2586) emerge as the most intriguing mid-tier values: Fleetwood combines elite form (SG Total +1.85, #4 in field) with the best course fit among contenders (+0.120), while Kim boasts the highest course fit score in the top 10 (+0.199) and a 3.7% model win probability at 25/1. Russell Henley's course fit adjustment of +0.276 — the strongest among favorites — combined with his T2 finish here in 2025 makes him a must-watch at +3552.
Scheffler's Edge Is Absurdly Large
Our model gives the 2024 Travelers Championship winner a 14.5% win probability, creating a +14.4% edge over implied odds. He leads the field in both SG Total (+2.80) and SG Approach (+1.08), and his course history reads T6-1st-T4 across his last three starts at TPC River Highlands.
Scottie Scheffler
Fleetwood's Course Fit Stands Out
Tommy Fleetwood pairs the fourth-best SG Total in the field (+1.85) with a positive course fit adjustment of +0.120, suggesting his game translates exceptionally well to TPC River Highlands. His T2 finish here in 2025 and a 5.1% model win probability at nearly 19/1 make him a premier value target.
Tommy Fleetwood
Si Woo Kim: Course Fit King
Kim's +0.199 course fit adjustment is the highest among the top 10 favorites, and at +2586 he offers the best odds-to-model-probability ratio in the upper tier. His SG Total of +1.66 (#7 in field) and 3.7% model win probability suggest the market is undervaluing his chances this week.
Si Woo Kim
Henley: Best Course Fit on Board
Russell Henley carries the strongest course fit adjustment among all favorites at +0.276 strokes, indicating his skill profile is tailor-made for TPC River Highlands. He backed that up with a T2 finish here in 2025, and at +3552 with a 2.7% model win probability, the value is clear.
Russell Henley
Aaron Rai: Top Longshot for Top-10
Among longshots, Aaron Rai has the highest top-10 probability at 20.6% despite +5159 odds. His SG Total of +1.09 is respectable and his profile suggests he can consistently contend without needing everything to click — ideal for place and top-10 markets.
Aaron Rai
Wyndham Clark's Sneaky Course History
Clark's course history adjustment of +0.058 strokes is the fourth-best in the field, and his SG Total of +1.36 at +5364 odds gives him an 18.8% top-10 probability. He's a proven winner on Tour who gets a subtle boost from the venue.
Wyndham Clark
Burns Leads Elite Putting Rankings
Sam Burns tops the field in SG Putting at +0.67, a crucial edge on TPC River Highlands' bentgrass greens. Combined with a SG Total of +1.65 (#8 in field) and 2.8% model win probability at +3438, he's a high-upside contender whose putter can carry him to a title.
Sam Burns
Schauffele's Course Fit Concerns
Despite elite ball-striking (SG Approach +0.77, #4 in field) and the third-highest SG Total (+1.94), Xander Schauffele carries a negative course fit adjustment of -0.118. His T61 finish at TPC River Highlands in 2025 is a red flag, though the raw talent and 5.0% model win probability still make him formidable.
Xander Schauffele
Defending Champion Bradley Has History Edge
Defending champion Keegan Bradley carries the second-best course history adjustment in the field at +0.078 strokes, and his wins here in 2023 and 2025 speak for themselves. At +6552, the model may not flag him as a top value play, but his proven ability to close at TPC River Highlands makes him a worthy longshot dart.
Keegan Bradley
Cantlay: Elite Value in the 33/1 Range
Patrick Cantlay's course history adjustment of +0.067 (third-best in field) pairs with a T12, T5, T4 run at TPC River Highlands over his last three starts. At +3321 with a 2.9% model win probability, his consistent contention here makes him a reliable each-way play.
Patrick Cantlay
Complete Betting Board
| # | Player | Why They Could Win | Win Odds GolfData API |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Scottie Scheffler
USA - OWGR #1
FAVORITE
|
The 2024 champion at TPC River Highlands also has a T6 and T4 here on his ledger, and he's run off six straight top-15s including a runner-up at the Masters, the Heritage, and the Miami Championship. The +2.8 SG Total leads this field by nearly a full stroke, the model hands him a 14.5% win equity and 56.7% top-10, and +589 is the only line in the building that prices a player this dominant fairly. World #1, course-proven, no reason to fade. |
+589 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T6
20241
2023T4
Win+589
Top 5+149
Top 10-131
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T4 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T12 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 3 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T14 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): 2 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 2 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
14.5%
Top 10 Probability
56.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 2 |
Tommy Fleetwood
USA - OWGR #7
CONTENDER
|
A solo 2nd here in 2025 and a T4 at the Memorial say the course-fit math is real — Fleetwood gets the field's strongest course-fit adjustment at +0.12, and the model spits out a 35.1% top-10. The +1874 win number sits behind only Scheffler in the projection, and at OWGR #7 with 1.85 SG Total he's the cleanest non-Scottie ticket. Heritage MC at the PGA is the only blemish in an otherwise rock-solid 2026. |
+1874 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T2
202415
2023MC
Win+1874
Top 5+384
Top 10+185
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T11 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T11 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T4 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T5 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T52 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T33 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T10
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
5.1%
Top 10 Probability
35.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.12
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 3 |
Xander Schauffele
USA - OWGR #11
CONTENDER
|
The course-fit adjustment is actually negative at -0.118, which complicates the lazy narrative on a player priced at +1891. That said, Schauffele's +1.94 SG Total ranks third in the field behind only Scheffler and Fleetwood, and the T7 at the PGA plus T9 Masters confirm the major-week form is back. T13 and T19 finishes here in '24 and '23 give him a baseline, but the T61 in 2025 is the reason this isn't a slam-dunk. Fair price, not a value. |
+1891 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T61
2024T13
2023T19
Win+1891
Top 5+417
Top 10+207
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T11 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T29 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T7 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T60 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T12 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T9
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
5.0%
Top 10 Probability
32.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.12
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 4 |
Ludvig Aberg
USA - OWGR #14
CONTENDER
|
Three starts at TPC River Highlands, three finishes between T24 and T36 — Aberg has never cracked this course, and the history adjustment sits at zero. The ball-striking is still elite (+0.74 SG Approach, +0.71 OTT) and the T4 at the PGA shows the ceiling, but a -0.09 course-fit ding plus mediocre history makes +2089 feel like a number you pay for talent, not edge. Better spots coming. Pass at this price. |
+2089 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T36
2024T27
2023T24
Win+2089
Top 5+464
Top 10+229
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T17 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 39 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T17 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T4 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T8 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T4 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T21 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T5
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.6%
Top 10 Probability
30.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.09
Course History+-0.00
| |||
| 5 |
Si Woo Kim
USA - OWGR #21
CONTENDER
|
The course-fit model is screaming — Si Woo's +0.199 adjustment is the largest in this entire field, and the recent form backs it up with a solo 2nd at the Byron Nelson, a 3rd at the Heritage, and a T4 at Miami. The U.S. Open MC is noise; the +0.74 SG Approach number is the signal. At +2586 with a 3.72% model win equity, this is the standout value play on the board. Course history is thin, but everything else points up. |
+2586 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025WD
2024T31
2023MC
Win+2586
Top 5+508
Top 10+237
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T10 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 2 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T65 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T4 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 3 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 47 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T10
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.7%
Top 10 Probability
29.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.20
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 6 |
Cameron Young
USA - OWGR #3
CONTENDER
|
Won the Miami Championship in April for his maiden PGA Tour title and added a T3 at the Masters, so the breakthrough is real even if recent results have cooled (T43, T46, MC in his last three before this). Course history at TPC River Highlands is ugly though — T52, T9, T60 — and the fit model docks him -0.106. The OWGR #3 ranking flatters him at this stage; +3085 is closer to fair than to value. |
+3085 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T52
2024T9
2023T60
Win+3085
Top 5+601
Top 10+287
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T46 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T67 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T10 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): 1 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 35 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T3 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.1%
Top 10 Probability
25.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.11
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 7 |
Matt Fitzpatrick
USA - OWGR #4
CONTENDER
|
Won the Zurich Classic and the RBC Heritage in back-to-back weeks in April, added a solo 2nd at the Canadian Open, and now sits OWGR #4 — this is a player in absolute form. The +0.82 SG Approach and +0.49 SG Around-Green combo is exactly what plays at a precision venue, and the model's 26.8% top-10 looks light. Course history is meh (T17, T36, T49), but at +3241 with this ball-striking profile, the outright is live. |
+3241 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T17
2024T36
2023T49
Win+3241
Top 5+589
Top 10+273
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): 22 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): 2 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T36 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T14 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T52 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 1 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 1 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.0%
Top 10 Probability
26.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 8 |
Patrick Cantlay
USA - OWGR #37
CONTENDER
|
Three straight top-12s at TPC River Highlands (T12, T5, T4) make this Cantlay's most reliable non-major venue, and the +0.067 course history adjustment is the largest positive in this group. The U.S. Open MC is a red flag but the T10 at Truist and T8 at Heritage say the game is closer than the OWGR #37 suggests. +3321 on a course he loves with a 25.3% top-10 projection is a reasonable place-market play, even if the outright is a stretch. |
+3321 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T12
2024T5
2023T4
Win+3321
Top 5+637
Top 10+295
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T17 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T10 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T8 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.9%
Top 10 Probability
25.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History+0.07
| |||
| 9 |
Sam Burns
USA - OWGR #15
CONTENDER
|
A solo 2nd at the U.S. Open just reset Burns's ceiling, and he stacks that with a T4 at Memorial and a T7 at the Masters across his last eight starts. The +0.67 SG Putting headlines a balanced profile (+1.65 total, +0.53 approach) that travels anywhere. The catch: course fit grades at -0.167 and his TPC River Highlands resume is T17/T55, so the +3438 price reflects real venue concerns. Fade or fade lightly — the form is real but the fit isn't. |
+3438 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T17
2024T55
2023NA
Win+3438
Top 5+673
Top 10+317
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): 2 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T20 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T4 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T7
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.8%
Top 10 Probability
24.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.17
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 10 |
Russell Henley
USA - OWGR #5
CONTENDER
|
Won the Charles Schwab Challenge in May for his most recent title, and the course-fit adjustment of +0.276 is one of the best marks in the field at +3552. Pair that with a T2 here in '25 and a T3 at the Masters and you've got a world #5 with a legitimate venue edge. The 25.6% top-10 number is among the highest in this tier. He's underpriced — play him to place. |
+3552 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T2
2024T48
2023T19
Win+3552
Top 5+640
Top 10+291
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T65 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T22 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): 1 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T49 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T3 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.7%
Top 10 Probability
25.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.28
Course History+0.05
| |||
| 11 |
Justin Thomas
USA - OWGR #17
CONTENDER
|
Three straight top-10s at TPC River Highlands (T9/T5/T9) is the most consistent course record in this entire field, and the +0.40 SG Around-Green plus +0.52 approach fits the bermuda short-grass demands here. A T4 at the PGA Championship confirms the form is sharp. The course-fit model disagrees at -0.156, but his actual finishes here override the algorithm. At +3559 with a 23.3% top-10, JT is a clear play. |
+3559 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T9
2024T5
2023T9
Win+3559
Top 5+700
Top 10+330
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T17 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T19 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T13 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T4 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 13 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T77 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.7%
Top 10 Probability
23.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.16
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 12 |
Collin Morikawa
USA - OWGR #9
CONTENDER
|
The +0.70 SG Approach paces this tier and the +0.152 course-fit adjustment likes the ball-striking profile, but Morikawa hasn't cracked the top-10 in a stroke-play event since a T4 at the RBC Heritage. World #9, priced at +4004, with a model win number of just 2.44% — that's a fair price, not a value. The MC here in '23 also lingers. Pass at the win number, consider a small top-20 sprinkle. |
+4004 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T42
2024T13
2023MC
Win+4004
Top 5+745
Top 10+340
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T17 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T29 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T55 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T62 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T4 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T7
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.4%
Top 10 Probability
22.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.15
Course History-0.07
| |||
| 13 |
J.J. Spaun
USA - OWGR #12
CONTENDER
|
Won the Valero Texas Open in April and has added a T5 at Truist and a T6 at Colonial since, so the form behind the +4959 price is legit. The +0.83 SG Approach is the best mark in this entire group and the +0.136 course-fit adjustment backs it up. The -0.15 putting is the only red flag, and a U.S. Open MC is easy to forgive. Spaun is the best longshot value on this board. |
+4959 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T14
2024NA
2023MC
Win+4959
Top 5+858
Top 10+389
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T12 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T6 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T5 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T14 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): 1
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.0%
Top 10 Probability
20.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.14
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 14 |
Viktor Hovland
USA - OWGR #30
VALUE
|
A solo 3rd at the RBC Canadian Open is the only top-30 in his last seven starts, and Hovland WD'd from this event in '25 with T20/T29 in his other two trips. The +0.72 SG Approach is elite but the +0.12 around-green and inconsistent putter make him a one-skill bet at +5108. The 1.92% model win number prices him correctly. Skip — too many leaks for a venue that punishes mistakes. |
+5108 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025WD
2024T20
2023T29
Win+5108
Top 5+928
Top 10+419
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): 3 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T31 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.9%
Top 10 Probability
19.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 15 |
Aaron Rai
USA - OWGR #16
VALUE
|
Won the PGA Championship in May and followed with a T11 at the U.S. Open and a T19 at Memorial — this is a top-20 player in the world right now. The +0.333 course-fit adjustment is the highest of any player in this batch, and the +0.60 approach plus +0.18 around-green fits TPC River Highlands perfectly. At +5159 with a 20.6% top-10, Rai is dramatically underpriced. Hammer the outright and the top-10. |
+5159 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T17
2024NA
2023T24
Win+5159
Top 5+870
Top 10+385
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T11 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): 1 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): 5 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T24 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 48
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.9%
Top 10 Probability
20.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.33
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 16 |
Wyndham Clark
USA - OWGR #8
VALUE
|
Won the U.S. Open in June, won the CJ Cup Byron Nelson in May, and added a solo 3rd at Memorial — that's three top-3s and two wins in his last eight starts. The +0.43 putting and +0.36 around-green numbers are elite. The problem is a -0.225 course-fit adjustment and a best of T9 here across three tries. At +5364 he's intriguing on form alone, but the venue math says lean top-20, not outright. |
+5364 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T17
2024T9
2023T29
Win+5364
Top 5+951
Top 10+433
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): 1 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T11 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 3 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 1 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T20 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T21
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
18.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.23
Course History+0.06
| |||
| 17 |
Kurt Kitayama
USA - OWGR #33
VALUE
|
Five top-22s in his last six measured starts — including a T10 at the PGA Championship and a T9 in Miami — and the +0.72 SG Approach is exactly the skill that travels to TPC River Highlands. The course-fit adjustment is mildly negative (-0.027) and the model only spits out a 1.8% win number, but at +5461 with an 18.8% top-10 number, the place-and-show prices (+971 top-5, +433 top-10) are where the value actually lives. |
+5461 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T31
2023MC
Win+5461
Top 5+971
Top 10+433
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T53 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T22 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T10 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T19 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T9 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T8 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 51
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
18.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 18 |
Justin Rose
USA - OWGR #6
VALUE
|
World No. 6 with a T3 at the Masters and a T11 at Oakmont on his recent card, yet he's priced at +5942 like a fringe contender. The +0.62 SG Approach and +0.016 fit adjustment both check out, but a T68 in his only TPC River Highlands appearance and a Canadian Open MC are real drags. Top-10 at +473 with a 17.4% model number is the play; the outright is too thin given how little he's shown here. |
+5942 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T68
2023NA
Win+5942
Top 5+1048
Top 10+473
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T11 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T12 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T10 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T45 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T65 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
17.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 19 |
Min Woo Lee
USA - OWGR #39
VALUE
|
Back-to-back missed cuts at Memorial and Oakmont are the headline, but the underlying skills (+1.40 SG Total, balanced across every category) still grade out as elite. The T9 here in 2023 hints at course fit, though the model disagrees with a -0.151 adjustment. At +6189 with cold form and a negative fit number, this is a pass — the Top 20 price (33.7% model) is the only number that even sniffs value. |
+6189 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T63
2024NA
2023T9
Win+6189
Top 5+1071
Top 10+483
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T18 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T14 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T18 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T60 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
17.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.15
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 20 |
Keegan Bradley
USA - OWGR #38
VALUE
|
Two-time defending champion. He won this thing in 2023 and 2025, and the +0.078 course history adjustment is the largest on the board in this tier. Form is mediocre (T19/T32/T35 recently, a PGA MC), but TPC River Highlands is the one venue where his profile clicks — short, tree-lined, premium on approach (+0.37) and around the green (+0.27). +6552 on a guy who literally cannot stop winning here is one of the better course-horse bets of the year. |
+6552 |
Tournament History & Odds
20251
2024T39
20231
Win+6552
Top 5+1062
Top 10+483
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T32 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T19 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T19 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T49 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T12 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T21
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
17.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History+0.08
| |||
| 21 |
Chris Gotterup
USA - OWGR #13
VALUE
|
OWGR No. 13 with +1.39 SG Total and a T10 at the PGA in his pocket, but the course-fit number is brutal at -0.286 — the worst in this group. TPC River Highlands neutralizes his bombing edge (+0.54 OTT), and a T61 in his only prior look isn't encouraging. At +6926 the model gives him 1.42%, which is fair-to-slightly-light; there's no edge here and the fit screams fade. |
+6926 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T61
2023NA
Win+6926
Top 5+1198
Top 10+529
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T27 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T10 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T14 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
15.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.29
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 22 |
Ben Griffin
USA - OWGR #18
VALUE
|
The hottest putter in the field (+0.49 SG Putting) with a T3 at Colonial, a solo 3rd in Miami, and a T17 at the U.S. Open already banked in this calendar year. T14 here in 2025 confirms the course works, and the +1.42 SG Total is tied for the best number in this tier. The fit adjustment is mildly negative (-0.109), but at +7009 with a 17.5% top-10 model number, the place markets (+472) are mispriced — this is the longshot to actually back. |
+7009 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T14
202467
2023MC
Win+7009
Top 5+1094
Top 10+472
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T17 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T3 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T14 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T63 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): 3 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T10 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T33
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
17.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.11
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 23 |
Alex Fitzpatrick
USA - OWGR #67
VALUE
|
Won the Zurich Classic in April, finished solo 4th at Truist, T6 at Memorial, and T23 at Oakmont — that's a top-25 ball-striker quietly stacking results. The +0.113 course-fit adjustment is the best in this entire tier, and he's made the cut all three prior trips here (T17/T36/T49). At +7335 with a 33.8% top-20 number, the outright is a stretch but the top-20 and top-10 prices are legitimately live. |
+7335 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T17
2024T36
2023T49
Win+7335
Top 5+1171
Top 10+499
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T20 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T6 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T75 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 4 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T9 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 1
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
16.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.11
Course History—
| |||
| 24 |
Maverick McNealy
USA - OWGR #36
VALUE
|
Elite short game and putting combo (+0.35 ARG, +0.55 Putting) is the exact recipe for a 6,800-yard track where wedges and the flat-stick decide everything. T17 in his only prior look and a T10 at Memorial in his last start say the form is trending. The model still hates the fit (-0.201) and the ball-striking is merely okay (+0.16 OTT, +0.26 APP), so at +7466 this is a top-20 dart (31.7%) rather than a serious outright swing. |
+7466 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T17
2024NA
2023NA
Win+7466
Top 5+1221
Top 10+537
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T32 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T10 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T18 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T18 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T21
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
15.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.20
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 25 |
Bud Cauley
USA - OWGR #40
VALUE
|
Won the RBC Canadian Open and followed it with a T22 at Memorial and T56 at the U.S. Open — that's three straight made cuts against deep fields with a +1.06 SG Total to show for it. The model's 15.7% top-10 number is one of the better longshot values on the board at +7733, and his T25 here in 2025 confirms the fit isn't a problem. Live ticket to play. |
+7733 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T25
2024NA
2023NA
Win+7733
Top 5+1226
Top 10+537
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T56 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): 1 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T22 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 7 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T21
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
15.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 26 |
J.T. Poston
USA - OWGR #32
VALUE
|
Memorial winner with a T4 chaser at the U.S. Open — Poston is playing the best golf of his career and the +7943 number hasn't caught up. The ball-striking profile (+0.38 Approach, +0.28 Putting) plays anywhere, and the course-fit adjustment of +0.10 is one of the strongest in this tier. Past results at TPC River Highlands (T45, T55, MC) are uninspiring, but form trumps history when a guy is this hot. Worth a sprinkle. |
+7943 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T45
2024T55
2023MC
Win+7943
Top 5+1284
Top 10+552
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T4 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 1 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T24 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T49 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T60 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T21
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
15.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History-0.05
| |||
| 27 |
Brian Harman
USA - OWGR #58
VALUE
|
Three straight top-10s at TPC River Highlands (8th, T9, T2) and the second-best course history adjustment in the field at +0.256 — Harman is the definition of a horses-for-courses play. The recent form is meh (MC at Memorial, T32 at the U.S. Open), but a +0.21 putter on a track where short game travels makes the +8423 a fair gamble for a top-20 ticket. Win equity is thin given the modest +0.66 SG Total. |
+8423 |
Tournament History & Odds
20258
2024T9
2023T2
Win+8423
Top 5+1321
Top 10+561
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T32 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T22 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T60 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T31 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T33 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T39
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
15.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.09
Course History+0.26
| |||
| 28 |
Harris English
USA - OWGR #24
VALUE
|
T4 at this event in 2025 and a T4 at Harbour Town in April — English shows up on shorter, position-off-the-tee tracks. The +0.58 SG Putting is elite, and the +1.07 SG Total ranks with anyone in the longshot tier. The U.S. Open MC stings, but the model's 15.4% top-10 at +8829 to win (with +548 for a top-10) makes the place tickets the smarter side of the play. |
+8829 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T4
2024T63
2023T60
Win+8829
Top 5+1295
Top 10+548
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T17 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T18 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T24 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T55 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T4 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T30
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
15.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 29 |
Shane Lowry
USA - OWGR #45
VALUE
|
The +0.66 SG Approach is the headline skill here, and a T9 at this event in 2024 shows the course doesn't punish his game. Problem: the U.S. Open MC is the third missed cut in his last seven starts, and the +0.01 around-the-green / +0.03 putting numbers are dead neutral. At +8963 with a 1.10% model win, you're paying for the brand more than the form. Pass on the outright, lean top-20 if anywhere. |
+8963 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T45
2024T9
2023T19
Win+8963
Top 5+1371
Top 10+592
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T29 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T22 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T30
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
14.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.08
Course History+-0.00
| |||
| 30 |
Adam Scott
USA - OWGR #52
VALUE
|
Scott's +0.62 SG Approach and +0.43 OTT are legitimately elite, but the -0.08 putter is the same story it's been for a decade — and at TPC River Highlands you need to make putts. The T4 at Miami in April flashes upside, but the U.S. Open MC and a -0.058 course-fit adjustment temper enthusiasm. At +9060, the price reflects name value more than win equity. Easy fade outright. |
+9060 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T30
2024T39
2023T19
Win+9060
Top 5+1476
Top 10+630
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T12 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T24 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T4 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
13.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.06
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 31 |
Jordan Spieth
USA - OWGR #49
VALUE
|
On paper the +1.10 SG Total and +0.35 Approach scream value at +9409, and Spieth's creative short game (+0.17 ARG) should love a 6,800-yard scoring track. But the course-fit and course-history adjustments are both -0.067, the Memorial MC is a red flag, and he's only played this event once recently (T63 in 2024). The brand tax is real here — top-20 at +330ish is the only number worth touching. |
+9409 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T63
2023NA
Win+9409
Top 5+1451
Top 10+625
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T56 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T18 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T52 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T18 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T63
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
13.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History-0.07
| |||
| 32 |
Gary Woodland
USA - OWGR #41
VALUE
|
A T7 at the U.S. Open is the loudest result on this page, and Woodland's +0.67 SG OTT is the best driving number in this group. The catch is a -0.20 around-the-green that gets exposed on a course where wedges and scrambling decide weekends. The 1.02% model win at +9720 is fair, not generous, and his TPC River Highlands history (T36, T33) suggests the fit just isn't there. Skip. |
+9720 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T36
2024NA
2023T33
Win+9720
Top 5+1555
Top 10+663
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T7 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T36 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T6 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T17 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T8 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T33
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
13.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 33 |
Robert MacIntyre
USA - OWGR #19
VALUE
|
The +1.11 SG Total and +0.46 putter are legitimate top-25-in-the-world numbers, and MacIntyre has quietly made the cut both times he's teed it up at TPC River Highlands (T17 in 2025, T16 in 2024). The problem at +9883 is the approach game — +0.06 SG Approach is pedestrian for a course that demands wedge precision, and the -0.071 course fit adjustment confirms what the eye test says. Model gives him just a 1.0% win share. Pass on the outright, look at the +629 top-10 as the live ticket. |
+9883 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T17
2024T16
2023NA
Win+9883
Top 5+1462
Top 10+629
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T39 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T15 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T42 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T60 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
13.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 34 |
Kristoffer Reitan
USA - OWGR #26
VALUE
|
Won the Truist Championship in May and backed it up with a T6 at Memorial — that's two top-6s in his last four starts against legitimate fields, and the OWGR has noticed (up to #26). The skill profile travels: +0.60 OTT and +0.34 Approach is a genuine ball-striking package. No course history is the only real concern, but the -0.027 fit adjustment is essentially neutral. At +10052 with a 12.4% top-10 number, this is one of the more defensible longshot tickets on the board. |
+10052 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10052
Top 5+1633
Top 10+705
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T60 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T6 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 1 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T14 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T2 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T10
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
12.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History—
| |||
| 35 |
Ryan Gerard
USA - OWGR #27
VALUE
|
Solo 2nd at the Memorial is the kind of result that rewires a player's ceiling, and Gerard's +0.58 SG Approach is top-shelf for this iron-heavy test. The +0.047 course fit adjustment leans positive even though his only prior start here was a T54 in 2025. At +10770 with a 13.3% top-10, the price reflects the lack of pedigree more than the current form. Outright is a stretch, but he's a defensible top-20 play at +28.6% implied. |
+10770 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T54
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10770
Top 5+1526
Top 10+653
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 2 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T10 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T70 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T65 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 34 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T38
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
13.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 36 |
Keith Mitchell
USA - OWGR #68
VALUE
|
A T4 at the U.S. Open and a solo 5th at the Byron Nelson sandwich a couple of clunkers, but the ball-striking signal is loud — +0.59 OTT, +0.37 Approach, and the OWGR sits at #68 mostly because the putter (+0.02) has been a drag. The -0.063 fit adjustment and zero course history are real strikes at TPC River Highlands, where local knowledge matters. At +10991 with under a 1% model win share, this is a top-10 dart (+711) at best. |
+10991 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10991
Top 5+1646
Top 10+711
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T4 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T29 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 5 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T65 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T55 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T30 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
12.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.06
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 37 |
Jake Knapp
USA - OWGR #44
VALUE
|
An 11th at the Masters is the headline, but Knapp has played exactly three events in the data window and missed the cut at the U.S. Open. The -0.206 course fit adjustment is the worst number in this batch by a wide margin — TPC River Highlands rewards finesse and wedges, and Knapp is a bomber whose game profiles to longer setups. At +11852 with a 0.84% win share, the model is essentially telling you to look elsewhere. Fade. |
+11852 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T48
2023NA
Win+11852
Top 5+2008
Top 10+845
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T74 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 11
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
10.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.21
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 38 |
Sepp Straka
USA - OWGR #22
VALUE
|
Three made cuts here (T23, T38, T45) and a +0.081 course fit adjustment say Straka should be comfortable, and the +0.54 SG Approach is exactly the skill that plays at this venue. The issue is everything around it has cratered — MC at the U.S. Open, MC at the PGA, T40 at Memorial, and a +0.69 SG Total that's well below his career norm. At +13536 you're betting on a form reversal more than a setup edge. Wait for a better spot. |
+13536 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T45
2024T23
2023T38
Win+13536
Top 5+1950
Top 10+805
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T40 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T63 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T4 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
11.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.08
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 39 |
Alex Noren
USA - OWGR #23
VALUE
|
The +0.101 course fit adjustment is the highest in this group, and Noren's profile — +0.43 putter, +0.15 ARG, modest off the tee — is built for a short, tree-lined course where scrambling matters more than length. A solo 9th at Memorial proves the game is sharp, even if the U.S. Open and Canadian Open both ended in MCs. At +13919 with an 11.1% top-10, the outright is a stretch but the top-20 at +25.2% implied has real merit. |
+13919 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T30
2024NA
2023NA
Win+13919
Top 5+1944
Top 10+801
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 9 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T31 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T7 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T65 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T30 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T30
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
11.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 40 |
Jacob Bridgeman
USA - OWGR #25
VALUE
|
Quietly inside the OWGR top 25 at #25, and the recent form has a T11 at the Canadian Open and a T34 at Memorial mixed in with the misses. The +0.43 putter and +0.94 SG Total are solid baseline numbers, but the -0.051 course fit adjustment and a T52 in his only prior start here suggest this venue isn't an obvious match. At +14018 with a 0.71% model win share, the price is honest — this is a make-cut-and-hope ticket, not a live outright. |
+14018 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T52
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14018
Top 5+1860
Top 10+782
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T39 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T11 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T34 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T52 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T65 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
11.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 41 |
Akshay Bhatia
USA - OWGR #31
VALUE
|
A T5 at TPC River Highlands in 2024 is the bright spot, but everything else is flashing red — back-to-back missed cuts at the PGA and Memorial, a -0.108 course fit adjustment that's among the worst in this group, and just a 10.8% top-10 number from the model. The +0.93 SG Total profile is real and the T17 at Oakmont shows the pulse is still there, but at +14220 you're paying for upside that the fit data actively argues against. Pass. |
+14220 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T54
2024T5
2023NA
Win+14220
Top 5+1977
Top 10+823
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T17 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T28 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
10.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.11
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 42 |
Rickie Fowler
USA - OWGR #42
VALUE
|
Three made cuts here with a T13 ceiling and a positive +0.06 course fit adjustment is the case, paired with a runner-up at the Truist that proved he can still contend in elite fields. The problem: three straight missed cuts at the PGA, Schwab, Memorial and U.S. Open, and a +0.56 SG Total that's middle-of-the-pack at best. At +14715 the name carries more weight than the numbers — fade unless you're chasing nostalgia. |
+14715 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T36
2024T20
2023T13
Win+14715
Top 5+2337
Top 10+964
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T60 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T2 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T9 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T8 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
9.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 43 |
Corey Conners
USA - OWGR #55
VALUE
|
The +0.192 course fit adjustment is one of the largest in this entire field, and the +0.47 SG Approach backs up why TPC River Highlands should suit him. The catch is a putter sitting at -0.14 and a form line that reads T55-T30-T31-T55-53-MC-T23 — zero top-20s in his last eight starts. The T9 here in 2023 is real, but at +14863 you're betting the fit model can overcome a flatstick that's been a season-long anchor. Hard pass. |
+14863 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T27
2023T9
Win+14863
Top 5+2096
Top 10+855
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 53 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T55 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T31 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T55 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T49
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
10.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.19
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 44 |
Sahith Theegala
USA - OWGR #73
LONGSHOT
|
The T11 at Oakmont is a genuine signal that the game is rounding into shape, and the +0.87 SG Total with a +0.28 ARG number gives him a legit short-game ceiling on a course that rewards scrambling. But the -0.134 course fit adjustment is the worst in this group, the two prior trips here returned T48 and T52, and the model gives him just a 0.65% win shot. Live for a top 20 at +853 to top 10, but the outright at +15245 is a stretch. |
+15245 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T48
2023T52
Win+15245
Top 5+2073
Top 10+853
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T11 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T45 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T32 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T60 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T60 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 69 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T24 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
10.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.13
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 45 |
Alex Smalley
USA - OWGR #43
LONGSHOT
|
Look at that form line: T2 at the PGA, T3 at Schwab, T2 at the Zurich, T7 in Miami — four top-7s in his last eight including a major runner-up, and the T9 here in 2023 says he's already shown out on this property. The model still only gives him 0.64% to win because of the two recent MCs at Memorial and Oakmont, but the +0.83 SG Total and +0.43 approach are contender-grade numbers. At +15444 this is the best longshot value on the board. |
+15444 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023T9
Win+15444
Top 5+2069
Top 10+857
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T3 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T2 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T17 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T7 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T2 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T14
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
10.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.00
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 46 |
Ryo Hisatsune
USA - OWGR #62
LONGSHOT
|
No prior starts here, so the +0.091 course fit adjustment is doing all the heavy lifting on the projection. The +0.41 SG OTT and +0.38 approach are the appealing pieces, but the form is mediocre — 52-66-T35-T45-T65 across the heart of the schedule, with only the T8 at the Valero standing out. At +16073 with no course history to anchor the model, this is a dart throw with thin support. |
+16073 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+16073
Top 5+2304
Top 10+950
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 52 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): 66 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T45 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T65 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T60 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
9.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.09
Course History—
| |||
| 47 |
Hideki Matsuyama
USA - OWGR #28
LONGSHOT
|
Three straight made cuts here with finishes of T13, T23, and T30, plus a +0.48 SG Approach and +0.33 ARG that fit exactly what this course asks for. The negatives are real too — a -0.086 course fit adjustment that disagrees with the eye test, OTT at -0.12, and a recent stretch of T26-71-T13-T43-T65 that lacks a single top-10. At +16849 with OWGR #28 next to his name, the price reflects the form slump more than the talent. Worth a sprinkle for top 20. |
+16849 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T30
2024T23
2023T13
Win+16849
Top 5+2301
Top 10+918
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T65 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T43 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T13 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 71 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T53 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T21
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
9.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.09
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 48 |
Sam Stevens
USA - OWGR #46
LONGSHOT
|
T7 at Oakmont in the most recent start is the kind of result that should be moving his number, and the +0.45 SG Approach and +0.35 OTT combo points to a player gaining everywhere except on the greens. The course history is ugly (MC and T45 in two tries) and the putter at -0.05 is a real concern on a venue where the winners typically gain strokes on the greens. At +18249 the ball-striking gives you a path, but the model's 0.55% win number is honest about how narrow it is. |
+18249 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T45
2024NA
2023MC
Win+18249
Top 5+2475
Top 10+976
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T7 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T42 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T65 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 70 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T18 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T13 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T65 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
9.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 49 |
Andrew Novak
USA - OWGR #63
LONGSHOT
|
Back-to-back missed cuts at the U.S. Open and Memorial have cooled the market on him, but rewind a bit further and you'll find a T10 at Zurich, a T16 at Harbour Town, and a T14 at Valero — all on courses that reward his +0.40 SG Approach profile. The model still gives him an 8.5% top-10 number at +18709, and the +0.022 course fit nudge here is mild but positive. Fair longshot if you're bucketing top-10 tickets, not a win bet. |
+18709 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T30
2024NA
2023MC
Win+18709
Top 5+2644
Top 10+1077
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T54 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T24 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T65 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T10 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T14
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
8.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 50 |
Sungjae Im
USA - OWGR #79
LONGSHOT
|
A T3 here in 2024 is the headline number, and his short-game profile (+0.40 ARG, +0.27 putting) is exactly what TPC River Highlands rewards over four rounds. The problem is everything else — a -0.26 SG Approach, a missed cut at the PGA, and a -0.023 course fit adjustment that disagrees with the history. The T5 at Truist suggests the floor is there, but +18768 prices in too much upside for a player whose iron game is actively bleeding strokes. Pass at the win number. |
+18768 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T61
2024T3
2023T29
Win+18768
Top 5+2713
Top 10+1091
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T32 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T9 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T5 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T65 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 46
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
8.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 51 |
Daniel Berger
USA - OWGR #50
LONGSHOT
|
Here's the most interesting course-fit number in this tier: +0.13, one of the largest positive adjustments on the board, paired with a +0.45 SG Approach that says the ball-striking engine is humming. The catch is everything around it — back-to-back MCs at the U.S. Open and Memorial, a -0.20 ARG, and a -0.12 putter that's been the difference between cashing and going home. At +22205 with a 7.6% top-10 projection, he's a defensible outright dart if you trust the irons to drag the short game along. |
+22205 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T42
2024NA
2023NA
Win+22205
Top 5+3028
Top 10+1212
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T45 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.13
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 52 |
Ben James
USA - OWGR #501
LONGSHOT
|
The local kid storyline is fun — UConn product, Connecticut native, sponsor exemption — and the T23 at Oakmont in his most recent start is a legitimate eyebrow-raiser for an OWGR #501. But with no PGA Tour SG baseline, a missed cut in his only prior Travelers appearance, and a -0.029 course history adjustment, the +23246 number is essentially a vibes bet. Sprinkle for the narrative if you must, but the model's 0.43% win number is being generous. |
+23246 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023MC
Win+23246
Top 5+3377
Top 10+1319
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T54
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
7.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 53 |
Nicolai Hojgaard
USA - OWGR #35
LONGSHOT
|
Three straight missed cuts at the U.S. Open, RBC Canadian, and Memorial is an ugly recent profile, but the underlying ball-striking still grades out as the best in this tier — +0.89 SG Total, +0.39 Approach, +0.30 OTT. The T2 at Truist proves the ceiling is genuinely high when it clicks. The killer is the -0.278 course fit adjustment, the worst in this batch by a wide margin, suggesting TPC River Highlands neutralizes his length advantage. Hard pass at +24390. |
+24390 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+24390
Top 5+3076
Top 10+1207
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T2 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T55 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
7.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.28
Course History—
| |||
| 54 |
Nick Taylor
USA - OWGR #65
LONGSHOT
|
Quietly one of the more consistent profiles in this tier: T17 here in 2025, balanced SG across approach (+0.23), short game (+0.23), and putting (+0.15), and a +0.075 course fit adjustment that likes the matchup. The MC at Oakmont stings but he's posted four top-30s in his last six including a T9 in Miami and T14 at Truist. At +25432 with a 7.4% top-10 number, the outright is a stretch, but he's a real candidate for placement markets. |
+25432 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T17
2024T42
2023MC
Win+25432
Top 5+3277
Top 10+1244
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T65 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T43 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T14 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T9 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T60 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T28
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
7.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History-0.08
| |||
| 55 |
Michael Kim
USA - OWGR #51
LONGSHOT
|
The +0.38 SG Putting number leads this entire group of longshots, and pair it with a +0.22 Approach and the runner-up at the Valero Texas Open and you've got a player whose floor is genuinely high. The issue is the -0.103 course fit adjustment, which doesn't love what TPC River Highlands asks of him off the tee (-0.14 OTT). At +26332 he's a defensible top-20 play given the model's 18.8% number there, but the win equity isn't really there. |
+26332 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T42
2024NA
2023T38
Win+26332
Top 5+3136
Top 10+1201
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T49 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T17 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T48 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T18 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
7.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.10
Course History-0.01
| |||
Daily Matchups coming soon.