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// BETTING PREVIEW - MAY 7-10

Truist Championship

May 7-10, 2026 | Charlotte, North Carolina
COSMOS Golf
Quail Hollow Club
⛅ Tournament Weather Forecast Expect partly cloudy skies with highs in the 76F range and light winds around 10 mph throughout the week. Some rain is possible, making for ideal scoring conditions.
Miller
Miller
  • Win:TBD-
  • Top 5:TBD-
  • Top 10:TBD-
Kevin
Kevin
  • Win:TBD-
  • Top 5:TBD-
  • Top 10:TBD-
Andrew
Andrew
  • Win:TBD-
  • Top 5:TBD-
  • Top 10:TBD-
Kcon
Kcon
  • Win:TBD-
  • Top 5:TBD-
  • Top 10:TBD-
Parbeh
Parbeh
  • Win:TBD-
  • Top 5:TBD-
  • Top 10:TBD-
JB
JB
  • Win:TBD-
  • Top 5:TBD-
  • Top 10:TBD-
Rory McIlroy dominates the Truist Championship model projections with an 11.2% win probability at +796, backed by the field's best Strokes Gained Total (+2.25) and a stellar course history that includes a win in 2024 and a T7 in 2025. Cameron Young (+1153) and Xander Schauffele (+1246) form a potent second tier, both posting +2.17 SG Total with Schauffele's elite ball-striking (#1 in SG Approach at +1.00) making him a perennial contender at this venue where he's finished 2nd twice. Further down the board, Viktor Hovland at +5168 with a near-20% top-10 probability and Si Woo Kim at +2912 ranking #2 in SG Approach offer compelling value in a 72-player field.
McIlroy Is the Clear Model Alpha
Rory McIlroy's 11.2% model win probability dwarfs the field and his +2.25 SG Total ranks #1 among all 72 competitors. His course history adjustment of +0.170 strokes is the second-best in the field, reflecting a 2024 victory and consistent results at this venue.
Rory McIlroy
Cameron Young Offers Elite Value
At +1153, Cameron Young's 8.0% model win probability represents a massive 7.9% edge over implied odds. His +2.17 SG Total ties Schauffele for second in the field, and his T7 finish here in 2025 suggests growing comfort with the course.
Cameron Young
Schauffele's Ball-Striking Unlocks This Course
Xander Schauffele leads the entire field in SG Approach at +1.00 and has finished 2nd here in both 2023 and 2024. His 7.4% model win probability at +1246 represents significant edge, and his +0.126 course fit score confirms the skillset alignment.
Xander Schauffele
Si Woo Kim's Approach Game Screams Value
Kim ranks #2 in the field in SG Approach at +0.83 and carries a 3.3% model win probability at +2912, offering serious mid-tier value. His consistent course history (T17 in 2025, T16 in 2024) shows reliable performance without the fireworks that attract market attention.
Si Woo Kim
Fitzpatrick Is the Stealth Contender
Matt Fitzpatrick's +2.02 SG Total ranks #4 in the field, yet his +2016 odds imply far less respect than his 4.7% model win probability warrants. He ranks #5 in SG Approach (+0.77), a critical skill at this venue, making him a prime each-way candidate.
Matt Fitzpatrick
Hovland Is the Best Longshot Bet
Viktor Hovland at +5168 posts a 19.8% top-10 probability — the highest among all longshots — paired with a +1.25 SG Total that ranks well inside the top 15. At roughly 50-1, his profile suggests significant top-10 and top-5 equity for bettors seeking place market value.
Viktor Hovland
Fleetwood's Course History Is Bulletproof
Tommy Fleetwood has finished T4, T13, and T5 in his last three Truist appearances, and his +1.55 SG Total supports a 3.0% model win probability at +3250. His consistency here makes him an ideal top-10 and top-20 play rather than an outright gamble.
Tommy Fleetwood
Adam Scott's Iron Play Defies His Odds
At +3761 and age 44, the market is sleeping on Adam Scott, who ranks #3 in the field in SG Approach (+0.81) and has two T5-or-better finishes in his last three Truist starts. His 2.6% model win probability and +0.088 course fit adjustment make him a compelling veteran play.
Adam Scott
Rickie Fowler's Course Love Affair Continues
Fowler's +0.123 course history adjustment ranks third in the entire field despite modest overall form (+1.03 SG Total). At +5243 with a 19.6% top-10 probability, he's a classic course horse play worth targeting in derivative markets.
Rickie Fowler
Aberg Has Upside but Course Questions Linger
Ludvig Aberg's 4.3% model win probability at +2243 is driven by raw talent (+1.81 SG Total, #5 in field), but his only Truist start produced a T60 finish in 2025. His +0.129 course fit score is encouraging, suggesting the poor result was noise rather than signal, but buyers should temper expectations slightly.
Ludvig Aberg

Complete Betting Board

👆 Click any player row for history, odds, recent form, strokes gained.
# Player Why They Could Win Win Odds GolfData API
1
Rory McIlroy▼
USA - OWGR #2
FAVORITE
The reigning Masters champion is the 2024 Quail Hollow winner with a T7 here in 2025 to back it up. The world #2 leads this field in SG: Total at +2.25 with a course fit adjustment of +0.198 and course history bump of +0.17 — both elite marks. Model gives him an 11.16% win share and 49.7% top-10, comfortably the highest in the field. At +796, he's the rightful favorite and the price is fair, not generous.
 +796
Tournament History & Odds
2025T7
20241
2023T47
Win+796
Top 5+198
Top 10+101
Recent Form
Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 1 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T46 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): WD • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T2 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T14
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.93
🏌️ Approach+0.70
⛳ Around Green+0.28
🕳️ Putting+0.34
Model Predictions
Win Probability
11.2%
Top 10 Probability
49.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.20
Course History+0.17
2
Cameron Young▼
USA - OWGR #3
CONTENDER
Won the Miami Championship last week and added a PLAYERS title in March — that's two wins in his last nine starts, plus a T3 at Augusta sandwiched in between. The +2.17 SG: Total and +0.48 putting mark are both top-tier, and the model rates him at 7.98% to win with a 42.6% top-10. Course history is solid (T7 in '25) and the fit adjustment of +0.118 backs the form. At +1153, he's the most live non-Rory number on the board.
 +1153
Tournament History & Odds
2025T7
2024T34
2023T59
Win+1153
Top 5+264
Top 10+134
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): 1 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 35 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T3 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): 1 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T66 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T3 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T52 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T7 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T55
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.75
🏌️ Approach+0.71
⛳ Around Green+0.23
🕳️ Putting+0.48
Model Predictions
Win Probability
8.0%
Top 10 Probability
42.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.12
Course History-0.03
3
Xander Schauffele▼
USA - OWGR #10
CONTENDER
Two runner-up finishes here in 2023 and 2024 plus a T11 last year — nobody in the field outside Rory has a stronger course résumé. The +1.00 SG: Approach leads this entire group, and his 7.43% model win equity at +1246 implies he should be closer to +1100. Recent form backs it: 3rd at PLAYERS, T4 Valspar, T9 Masters, T12 Heritage. This is the cleanest contender bet on the board.
 +1246
Tournament History & Odds
2025T11
20242
20232
Win+1246
Top 5+290
Top 10+146
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T12 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T9 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T4 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): 3 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T7 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T19
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.79
🏌️ Approach+1.00
⛳ Around Green+0.13
🕳️ Putting+0.25
Model Predictions
Win Probability
7.4%
Top 10 Probability
40.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.13
Course History+0.03
4
Matt Fitzpatrick▼
USA - OWGR #4
CONTENDER
Three wins and a runner-up in his last five starts. Read that again — Zurich, Heritage, Valspar all victories, plus 2nd at PLAYERS and T18 at the Masters. The +2.02 SG: Total and balanced profile (+0.77 approach, +0.38 around green, +0.33 putting) confirm this is the hottest player on the planet not named Rory. Course history is mediocre (T23 best) and fit is only +0.045, which is why he's +2016 instead of +1500 — but you ride heaters in golf, and this is one.
 +2016
Tournament History & Odds
2025T23
2024T52
2023T35
Win+2016
Top 5+409
Top 10+196
Recent Form
Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 1 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 1 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T18 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): 1 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): 2 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T41 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T24 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T14
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.54
🏌️ Approach+0.77
⛳ Around Green+0.38
🕳️ Putting+0.33
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.7%
Top 10 Probability
33.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History-0.01
5
Ludvig Aberg▼
USA - OWGR #15
CONTENDER
Five straight top-25s including T4 at Heritage, T5 at Valero, T5 at PLAYERS, and T3 at API — the kid is humming. His +0.129 course fit adjustment is the third-highest among contenders despite a thin sample (T60 in his only prior start here). Model gives 4.27% win equity and 30.5% top-10 against a +2243 price, which translates to clear value on top-20 (+50.2% implied vs. market). Bet the placement markets, not the outright.
 +2243
Tournament History & Odds
2025T60
2024NA
2023NA
Win+2243
Top 5+474
Top 10+228
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T4 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T21 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T5 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T5 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T3 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T20 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T37
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.58
🏌️ Approach+0.68
⛳ Around Green+0.19
🕳️ Putting+0.36
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.3%
Top 10 Probability
30.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.13
Course History-0.01
6
Si Woo Kim▼
USA - OWGR #20
CONTENDER
Quietly stacking results: 3rd at Heritage and T4 at Miami in his last two, plus T7 Valspar and T10 Valero earlier in the swing. The +0.83 SG: Approach is elite and the +1.72 SG: Total slots him 6th in this field. Three straight made cuts here (T17, T16, T43) show he travels well to this venue even if the fit adjustment is neutral (+0.004). At +2912 with a 3.32% model win share, he's a fair outright dart and a strong top-20 play at +49% implied.
 +2912
Tournament History & Odds
2025T17
2024T16
2023T43
Win+2912
Top 5+559
Top 10+257
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T4 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 3 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 47 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T10 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T7 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T50 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T42 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T13 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T34 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T45
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.63
🏌️ Approach+0.83
⛳ Around Green+0.29
🕳️ Putting-0.03
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.3%
Top 10 Probability
28.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History-0.00
7
Tommy Fleetwood▼
USA - OWGR #7
CONTENDER
Three top-5s here in his last three trips (T4, T13, T5) — this is one of his best venues on tour. The +0.52 SG: Approach and +0.28 putting are solid if unspectacular, but the course history bump explains why the model still gives him 2.99% to win and 26.2% top-10. Recent form has cooled (T23, T52, T33) after a hot February-March, so +3250 feels honest. Better as a top-10 play than an outright.
 +3250
Tournament History & Odds
2025T4
2024T13
2023T5
Win+3250
Top 5+605
Top 10+282
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T52 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T33 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T10 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T8 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): 49 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T7 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T4
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.51
🏌️ Approach+0.52
⛳ Around Green+0.24
🕳️ Putting+0.28
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.0%
Top 10 Probability
26.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History+0.01
8
Adam Scott▼
USA - OWGR #43
CONTENDER
T4 at Miami last week and 4th at Riviera in February prove the 45-year-old still has weeks in him. The +0.81 SG: Approach is genuinely top-tier in this field, and his +0.088 course fit adjustment ranks among the best non-favorites. Course history of T5 in 2023 plus consistent made cuts (T34, T29) help. The -0.08 putting is the only real concern — at +3761, he's a sensible top-20 dart but the win number is a stretch given the flat-stick.
 +3761
Tournament History & Odds
2025T34
2024T29
2023T5
Win+3761
Top 5+698
Top 10+324
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T4 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T24 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T56 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T11 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): 4
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.40
🏌️ Approach+0.81
⛳ Around Green+0.12
🕳️ Putting-0.08
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.6%
Top 10 Probability
23.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.09
Course History+0.02
9
Min Woo Lee▼
USA - OWGR #27
CONTENDER
Runner-up at Pebble, T6 at API, T3 in Houston — the breakthrough win feels overdue, and the +4207 number reflects it. The course fit adjustment of +0.128 is one of the strongest in this tier, and his +1.44 SG Total is balanced across every category (positive OTT, approach, ARG, and putting). The 2023 T8 here confirms the venue suits him. Top-10 at +352 is the play.
 +4207
Tournament History & Odds
2025T51
2024NA
2023T8
Win+4207
Top 5+763
Top 10+352
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T18 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T60 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T3 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T6 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T12 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.54
🏌️ Approach+0.26
⛳ Around Green+0.31
🕳️ Putting+0.33
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.3%
Top 10 Probability
22.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.13
Course History-0.01
10
Chris Gotterup▼
USA - OWGR #11
CONTENDER
An 11th-ranked player in the world priced at +4368 with a +0.158 course fit adjustment — that's a pricing inefficiency. No course history to lean on, but the +0.57 SG OTT and +0.31 SG Approach combo travels to any venue, and the T6 in Houston plus T24 at the Masters show the level holds up under pressure. Model gives him 20.5% to land top-10. Worth a sprinkle outright, stronger top-20 play.
 +4368
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+4368
Top 5+849
Top 10+388
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T24 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T6 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T56 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T18 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T37
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.57
🏌️ Approach+0.31
⛳ Around Green+0.09
🕳️ Putting+0.25
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.2%
Top 10 Probability
20.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.16
Course History—
11
Sam Burns▼
USA - OWGR #31
CONTENDER
The hottest putter in the field at +0.63 SG, and the recent results back it up: T7 Masters, T16 Heritage, T6 Pebble. Course history is mixed (T13 in '24, T30 in '25, MC in '23) but the +0.34 SG Approach is trending up and the model gives him a 38.6% top-20 hit rate. At +4591, you're paying value-tier price for a guy with five PGA Tour wins. Top-10 at +387 is the cleanest angle.
 +4591
Tournament History & Odds
2025T30
2024T13
2023MC
Win+4591
Top 5+842
Top 10+387
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T7 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.28
🏌️ Approach+0.34
⛳ Around Green-0.03
🕳️ Putting+0.63
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.1%
Top 10 Probability
20.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.08
Course History+0.01
12
Hideki Matsuyama▼
USA - OWGR #16
CONTENDER
Best iron player in this tier by a mile — +0.69 SG Approach paired with +0.38 around the green is a Sunday-contender profile. The T12 at Augusta and T8 at Pebble show the ball-striking is locked in, even if the T53 in Miami last week is a small concern. Only one prior start here (T17 in '25), so course history is thin. At +4846, he's underpriced relative to his ceiling — top-10 at +372 has real value.
 +4846
Tournament History & Odds
2025T17
2024NA
2023NA
Win+4846
Top 5+838
Top 10+372
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T53 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T21 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T27 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T41 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T28 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.02
🏌️ Approach+0.69
⛳ Around Green+0.38
🕳️ Putting+0.23
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.0%
Top 10 Probability
21.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History-0.02
13
Patrick Cantlay▼
USA - OWGR #33
CONTENDER
Quietly the best ball-striker in this tier: +0.42 OTT, +0.70 approach, +0.28 ARG, and a +1.50 SG Total that ranks with the favorites. T4 here last year and T8 at Heritage two weeks ago confirm the form. The putter (+0.10) is the only thing keeping him from contention week-to-week, but on a course where he's gone T4-T29-T21, the floor is high. +4913 is too long for this resume — top-10 at +384 is the bet.
 +4913
Tournament History & Odds
2025T4
2024T29
2023T21
Win+4913
Top 5+853
Top 10+384
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T8 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T7 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T37 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T14
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.42
🏌️ Approach+0.70
⛳ Around Green+0.28
🕳️ Putting+0.10
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.0%
Top 10 Probability
20.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History-0.04
14
Nicolai Hojgaard▼
USA - OWGR #37
VALUE
Runner-up in Houston six weeks ago and the model loves the course fit at +0.159 — second-highest adjustment in this tier. The +0.53 OTT and +0.52 approach numbers show a tee-to-green game that travels, and the T23 here in '25 in his only look is encouraging. Recent form is choppy (MC at Augusta, T55 at Heritage), which is why he's +5086. Top-20 at solid plus-money is the angle, not the outright.
 +5086
Tournament History & Odds
2025T23
2024NA
2023NA
Win+5086
Top 5+907
Top 10+414
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T55 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): 2 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T55 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T27 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.53
🏌️ Approach+0.52
⛳ Around Green+0.01
🕳️ Putting+0.11
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.9%
Top 10 Probability
19.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.16
Course History+0.02
15
Viktor Hovland▼
USA - OWGR #26
VALUE
The price screams value on name alone, but the course history is a red flag: T43, T24, T54 in three trips. The +0.64 SG Approach is elite and the T13s at PLAYERS and API show the ball-striking is back, but the short game (+0.14 ARG, +0.19 putting) hasn't been good enough to win in over a year. At +5168 he's a fine top-20 dart, but the outright case is weak. Fade the win bet, consider the place.
 +5168
Tournament History & Odds
2025T54
2024T24
2023T43
Win+5168
Top 5+898
Top 10+406
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T18 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T13 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T41 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T58
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.29
🏌️ Approach+0.64
⛳ Around Green+0.14
🕳️ Putting+0.19
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.9%
Top 10 Probability
19.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.02
16
Rickie Fowler▼
USA - OWGR #52
VALUE
The course history adjustment of +0.123 is the highest among LONGSHOTS in this batch — T14, T43, T15 across three trips, and the recent form (T9 Miami, T8 Heritage, T9 API) says the 36-year-old is genuinely playing well. SG Total of +1.03 is the lowest in this tier, which is why he's +5243, but everything else points to a top-20 finish. Outright is a lottery ticket; top-20 at the offered number is the smarter play.
 +5243
Tournament History & Odds
2025T15
2024T43
2023T14
Win+5243
Top 5+898
Top 10+411
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T9 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T8 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T42 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T9 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T28 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T19
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.35
🏌️ Approach+0.36
⛳ Around Green+0.03
🕳️ Putting+0.28
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.9%
Top 10 Probability
19.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.12
17
J.J. Spaun▼
USA - OWGR #9
VALUE
World #9 with a Valero Texas Open win on the resume from three weeks ago, and the +0.80 SG Approach is legit top-tier. The issue is everything since: MC at the Masters, T25 Heritage, T14 Miami — solid but not the form of a guy you back at +5325 to win. Course history is fine (T17 in '25, T27 in '23) and the model gives him 19.6% Top 10, which is the play here. Pass on the outright, lean Top 10.
 +5325
Tournament History & Odds
2025T17
2024NA
2023T27
Win+5325
Top 5+921
Top 10+410
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T14 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): 1 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T24 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T45
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.48
🏌️ Approach+0.80
⛳ Around Green+0.08
🕳️ Putting-0.14
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
19.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History+0.07
18
Kurt Kitayama▼
USA - OWGR #34
VALUE
Quietly rounding into form with T8 Heritage and T9 Miami back-to-back, plus a T2 at Riviera in February that nobody's talking about. The course fit adjustment of +0.123 is among the highest in this LONGSHOT batch, and the +0.68 SG Approach pairs well with +0.53 off the tee. Course history is thin (T34 in '24, MC in '23), but at +5888 with a model Top 10 of 18.1%, this is a defensible outright dart.
 +5888
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T34
2023MC
Win+5888
Top 5+1017
Top 10+453
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T9 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T8 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 51 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T60 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T18 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T2 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T48
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.53
🏌️ Approach+0.68
⛳ Around Green-0.05
🕳️ Putting-0.02
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.7%
Top 10 Probability
18.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.12
Course History-0.03
19
Robert MacIntyre▼
USA - OWGR #12
VALUE
Best putter in this entire tier at +0.63 SG, and the +1.49 SG Total is the highest number on this page. Recent form is a mixed bag — T2 Valero and 4th at THE PLAYERS sandwich a Masters MC and T42 at Heritage — but world #12 at +5973 with elite short-game numbers (+0.24 ARG) is a fair price. The +0.07 SG Approach is the wart; if the irons show up, he's a live outright.
 +5973
Tournament History & Odds
2025T34
2024NA
2023NA
Win+5973
Top 5+996
Top 10+437
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T2 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): 4 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T20 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T37
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.55
🏌️ Approach+0.07
⛳ Around Green+0.24
🕳️ Putting+0.63
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
18.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History-0.00
20
Maverick McNealy▼
USA - OWGR #28
VALUE
Eight straight made cuts with five top-30s in that stretch, but zero of those were better than T13 — the definition of a player making money without threatening to win. The putter (+0.55) and short game (+0.24) carry the bag while the irons (+0.16) lag behind elite contenders. At +6073 with a 1.62% model win number, the outright is a pass; the Top 20 ticket at 35.2% implied is where he pays.
 +6073
Tournament History & Odds
2025T60
2024NA
2023NA
Win+6073
Top 5+1026
Top 10+458
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T18 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T21 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T13 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T29
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.26
🏌️ Approach+0.16
⛳ Around Green+0.24
🕳️ Putting+0.55
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
17.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.01
21
Justin Thomas▼
USA - OWGR #17
VALUE
Course history is the entire pitch here: T2 in '25, T21 in '24, T14 in '23 — three straight top-25s including a runner-up last year. Problem is the form is wobbling, with T77 at Heritage and T41 at the Masters dragging down a season that peaked at T8 at THE PLAYERS. The +0.92 SG Total is the lowest in this batch and the irons (+0.35) aren't carrying him like they used to. Course fit keeps him interesting, but +6372 is fair, not generous.
 +6372
Tournament History & Odds
2025T2
2024T21
2023T14
Win+6372
Top 5+1123
Top 10+496
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T77 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T30 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T8 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.16
🏌️ Approach+0.35
⛳ Around Green+0.33
🕳️ Putting+0.08
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
16.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.04
22
Harris English▼
USA - OWGR #22
VALUE
Course history adjustment of +0.085 is among the best in the field — T3 in '23, T34 in '24, T11 in '25 — and the T4 at Heritage three weeks ago shows the game is sharp. The +0.47 SG Putting leads this group of bombers and ball-strikers, which is a real edge on a venue he clearly understands. At +6394 with a 17.8% Top 10, the outright is thin but the Top 20 number is the move.
 +6394
Tournament History & Odds
2025T11
2024T34
2023T3
Win+6394
Top 5+1047
Top 10+461
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T55 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T4 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T30 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T22 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.30
🏌️ Approach+0.13
⛳ Around Green+0.16
🕳️ Putting+0.47
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
17.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History+0.09
23
Sepp Straka▼
USA - OWGR #13
VALUE
Defending champion. Won this event in '25, finished T8 in '24, and just posted T4 at Miami last week — the form and the fit are both there. The +0.61 SG Approach is the second-best iron number in this tier and pairs with a season that already includes a T2 at Pebble and T8 at THE PLAYERS. World #13 at +6559 is a gift given the title defense angle; this is the best outright value on this page.
 +6559
Tournament History & Odds
20251
2024T8
2023MC
Win+6559
Top 5+1089
Top 10+481
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T4 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T8 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T13 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T50 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.23
🏌️ Approach+0.61
⛳ Around Green+0.07
🕳️ Putting+0.18
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
17.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.00
24
Jason Day▼
USA - OWGR #38
VALUE
Course history adjustment of +0.089 is the highest in this batch, anchored by a T4 here in '24, but the underlying numbers are a mess: +0.02 SG Approach and +0.08 off the tee won't win a Signature Event no matter how well he putts. The T6 in Houston and T12 at the Masters show flashes, but the +0.90 SG Total is the worst number in this tier. At +7391, hard to see a win path — this is a Top 20 flier at best.
 +7391
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T4
2023MC
Win+7391
Top 5+1221
Top 10+538
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T6 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T59 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.08
🏌️ Approach+0.02
⛳ Around Green+0.35
🕳️ Putting+0.44
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
15.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History+0.09
25
Keegan Bradley▼
USA - OWGR #30
VALUE
Three straight finishes in the T21-T35 range here from 2023-2025 paint him as a guy who shows up but never threatens, and the +7692 price reflects exactly that. The 0.93 SG Total is fine, not special, and he's missed two cuts in his last seven starts including Riviera and Bay Hill. Captain duties are also looming over the back half of his year. Pass at the number — there are sharper longshots on this board.
 +7692
Tournament History & Odds
2025T30
2024T21
2023T35
Win+7692
Top 5+1226
Top 10+532
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T49 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T12 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T21 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T55 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T50 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T29
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.29
🏌️ Approach+0.20
⛳ Around Green+0.30
🕳️ Putting+0.14
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
15.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History-0.00
26
Jordan Spieth▼
USA - OWGR #50
VALUE
The +0.41 SG Approach is the calling card and it's genuinely sneaky-good for a guy listed at +7889, but the course history is a red flag: T34, T29, MC across three starts means this venue has never clicked. Recent form is steady — T18 Miami, T12 Masters, T11 at both Valspar and Bay Hill — without ever producing a real contention week. He's a top-20 play, not a winner. Use him in placement markets and skip the outright.
 +7889
Tournament History & Odds
2025T34
2024T29
2023MC
Win+7889
Top 5+1211
Top 10+529
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T18 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T63 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T11 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T11 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T12 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T29
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.21
🏌️ Approach+0.41
⛳ Around Green+0.16
🕳️ Putting+0.25
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
15.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History-0.05
27
Gary Woodland▼
USA - OWGR #47
VALUE
Won the Houston Open in March and just posted a T8 at Hilton Head — that's a legitimate heater for a guy priced at +7954 with the highest course fit adjustment in this group at +0.135. The 0.62 SG Total undersells where his game actually is right now, and the +0.064 course history bump is backed by a T14 here in '23. Around-the-green at -0.24 is the only concern. Live outright at this number; the model's 1.24% win equity is light.
 +7954
Tournament History & Odds
2025T34
2024T38
2023T14
Win+7954
Top 5+1339
Top 10+593
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T8 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T33 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): 1 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T14 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.46
🏌️ Approach+0.24
⛳ Around Green-0.24
🕳️ Putting+0.15
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
14.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.14
Course History+0.06
28
Justin Rose▼
USA - OWGR #5
VALUE
Coming off a T3 at Augusta with +0.54 SG Approach that ranks among the best in this entire field, yet he's the 5th-ranked player in the world available at +8315. The catch: a WD here in '25 and T52 in '24 mean course history is genuinely unhelpful, and he's missed cuts at Riviera and Bay Hill this season. The iron play alone makes him a defensible top-10 ticket. As an outright at #5 OWGR, the price has real value.
 +8315
Tournament History & Odds
2025WD
2024T52
2023NA
Win+8315
Top 5+1328
Top 10+583
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T65 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T3 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T37
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.20
🏌️ Approach+0.54
⛳ Around Green+0.02
🕳️ Putting+0.06
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
14.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History-0.03
29
Ben Griffin▼
USA - OWGR #14
VALUE
Solo 3rd at Miami last week and a T10 at Zurich before that, plus the highest SG Total in this batch at +1.22 with a +0.47 putter that travels anywhere. The course fit adjustment is slightly negative at -0.02 and the lone prior start here was a missed cut, which is why he's sitting at +8411 despite OWGR #14. Form trumps fit when the form is this hot. Underpriced outright — bet him.
 +8411
Tournament History & Odds
2025T46
2024NA
2023MC
Win+8411
Top 5+1194
Top 10+511
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): 3 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T10 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T33 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T41 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T37
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.07
🏌️ Approach+0.28
⛳ Around Green+0.39
🕳️ Putting+0.47
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
16.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History+0.02
30
Alex Smalley▼
USA - OWGR #87
VALUE
T7 in Miami and a runner-up at Zurich in his last two starts, and the +0.51 SG Approach is the kind of number that wins tournaments. He posted a T18 here back in '23 in his only look at this venue, and the +0.057 course history adjustment quietly grades him out well. At +8484 with a model make-cut of 100% and 31.5% top-20 equity, he's one of the better placement plays in this tier. Worth a small outright too.
 +8484
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023T18
Win+8484
Top 5+1287
Top 10+555
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T7 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T2 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T14 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T46 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T24 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T52 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T19
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.29
🏌️ Approach+0.51
⛳ Around Green+0.06
🕳️ Putting+0.11
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
15.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.06
31
Ryan Gerard▼
USA - OWGR #32
VALUE
Best ball-striker in this batch with +0.40 SG OTT and +0.62 SG Approach, but the putter (+0.01) and short game (-0.02) are doing nothing to help him convert. Recent form is a parade of T27-T38 finishes with two missed cuts mixed in — there's no contention week to point to. The +9515 price is fair, maybe slightly long. Skip the outright; he's a top-20 dart at best.
 +9515
Tournament History & Odds
2025T42
2024NA
2023MC
Win+9515
Top 5+1406
Top 10+591
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 34 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T38 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T27 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T23 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T28 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T45
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.40
🏌️ Approach+0.62
⛳ Around Green-0.02
🕳️ Putting+0.01
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
14.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History+0.01
32
Jacob Bridgeman▼
USA - OWGR #19
VALUE
T4 here in his only prior start, won Riviera in February, and the +0.56 SG Putting is elite — that's a hell of a résumé for a guy at +9867. The recent form has cooled (T65, T33, T41 in his last three) which is why the price ballooned, but the underlying skill set and course history both check out. Model has him at 1.0% to win and 28.9% top-20. Live longshot — take a swing.
 +9867
Tournament History & Odds
2025T4
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9867
Top 5+1521
Top 10+641
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T65 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T14 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T5 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T18 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): 1 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.07
🏌️ Approach+0.27
⛳ Around Green+0.12
🕳️ Putting+0.56
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
13.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History-0.02
33
Sam Stevens▼
USA - OWGR #46
VALUE
A 5th at Houston in March headlines a quietly excellent 2026, and the underlying numbers back it up — +0.97 SG Total with balanced contributions across all four categories and a +0.068 course fit adjustment that's one of the better marks in this batch. OWGR #46 with back-to-back top-25s at Miami and Zurich suggests the form is real, not noise. At +9984 the win equity is thin, but the +630 top-10 number is the real value play here.
 +9984
Tournament History & Odds
2025T23
2024NA
2023T47
Win+9984
Top 5+1512
Top 10+630
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T18 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T13 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T65 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T24 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): 5 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): 58 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T16 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T55
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.46
🏌️ Approach+0.34
⛳ Around Green+0.08
🕳️ Putting+0.09
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
13.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History-0.01
34
Akshay Bhatia▼
USA - OWGR #24
VALUE
March winner at Bay Hill, T13 at Players, T16 at Hilton Head — this is a top-25 OWGR player priced like a back-marker at +10139. The +0.47 SG Approach paired with +0.52 SG Putting is a nasty combo for a low-ball course, even if the -0.016 fit adjustment is lukewarm and the course history (T46, 42, T43) is genuinely bad. Fade the win number, hammer the +654 top-10.
 +10139
Tournament History & Odds
2025T46
202442
2023T43
Win+10139
Top 5+1592
Top 10+654
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): 1 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T16 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee-0.08
🏌️ Approach+0.47
⛳ Around Green+0.07
🕳️ Putting+0.52
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
13.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History-0.00
35
Alex Noren▼
USA - OWGR #18
VALUE
World #18 with a T7 at Miami last week and zero missed cuts since January, yet he's the longest price of the trio of top-25 OWGR guys in this batch at +12297. The balanced profile — +0.38 approach, +0.40 putting, +0.18 around the green — travels anywhere, but the -0.07 course fit adjustment is the worst in this group and the history (T51, T24, MC) confirms it. Pass on the outright, consider the +704 top-10 as a hedge.
 +12297
Tournament History & Odds
2025T51
2024T24
2023MC
Win+12297
Top 5+1713
Top 10+704
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T7 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T65 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T30 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T30 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T12 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T29
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.02
🏌️ Approach+0.38
⛳ Around Green+0.18
🕳️ Putting+0.40
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
12.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History-0.02
36
Pierceson Coody▼
USA - OWGR #56
VALUE
The +0.141 course fit adjustment is the best in this entire batch, which matters when you're a +12748 longshot with essentially no track record here (one MC in 2023). The driver is the calling card at +0.59 SG OTT, but a -0.18 short game and a WD from Houston six weeks ago are real concerns. T16 at Hilton Head shows a pulse — this is a top-20 dart at +25-1 implied, not an outright play.
 +12748
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023MC
Win+12748
Top 5+1772
Top 10+743
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): WD • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T55 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T16 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T48
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.59
🏌️ Approach+0.35
⛳ Around Green-0.18
🕳️ Putting+0.01
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
11.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.14
Course History-0.04
37
Corey Conners▼
USA - OWGR #49
VALUE
Three straight top-15s at this event (T11, T13, T8) and the +0.065 course history adjustment is the strongest in this batch by a wide margin. The +0.48 SG Approach is exactly what plays here, but the -0.01 putting and -0.03 short game are why he's +12915 instead of +5000 — Conners simply doesn't make enough putts to win. Top-20 at +26-1 implied is the play; the outright is a trap you've fallen into before.
 +12915
Tournament History & Odds
2025T11
2024T13
2023T8
Win+12915
Top 5+1793
Top 10+748
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T55 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T49 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T14 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T33 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T37 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T70
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.24
🏌️ Approach+0.48
⛳ Around Green-0.03
🕳️ Putting-0.01
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
11.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History+0.07
38
Kristoffer Reitan▼
USA - OWGR #48
VALUE
Runner-up at Zurich two weeks ago and a T10 at Valero before that — this is a Euro making real noise on his first trip through the PGA Tour schedule. The +0.103 course fit adjustment is excellent, but -0.03 SG Approach in a field this strong is a problem, and there's literally zero course history to lean on. At +13661 with no history, this is a small-stakes top-20 swing at +24-1 implied, nothing more.
 +13661
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+13661
Top 5+1961
Top 10+821
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T14 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T2 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T10 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T66 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T17
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.53
🏌️ Approach-0.03
⛳ Around Green-0.05
🕳️ Putting+0.23
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
10.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History—
39
Sahith Theegala▼
USA - OWGR #75
VALUE
OWGR has slipped to #75 but the underlying ball-striking (+0.38 approach, +0.22 around the green) still profiles like a top-30 player, and a T6 at Bay Hill in March proves the ceiling is intact. Problem: the course history is genuinely ugly (WD, T52, T56) and the +0.015 fit adjustment doesn't suggest a breakthrough is coming. At +13919 the name carries more weight than the numbers — fade the outright.
 +13919
Tournament History & Odds
2025WD
2024T52
2023T56
Win+13919
Top 5+1927
Top 10+786
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T24 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T10 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T6 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T22 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T60
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.03
🏌️ Approach+0.38
⛳ Around Green+0.22
🕳️ Putting+0.19
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
11.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History-0.05
40
Daniel Berger▼
USA - OWGR #40
VALUE
Runner-up at Bay Hill in March is the headline, and the +0.56 SG Approach is the best mark in this batch — that's a number that wins golf tournaments. The catch: -0.18 around the green and -0.08 putting mean he needs the irons to carry everything, and a Masters MC plus a T42 at Hilton Head suggest the form has cooled. T11 here in 2025 is encouraging, but at +14428 there are better-priced ball-strikers in this field.
 +14428
Tournament History & Odds
2025T11
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14428
Top 5+2110
Top 10+854
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T66 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): 2 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T32 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T75
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.29
🏌️ Approach+0.56
⛳ Around Green-0.18
🕳️ Putting-0.08
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
10.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History-0.02
41
Bud Cauley▼
USA - OWGR #65
LONGSHOT
A 7th at Hilton Head three weeks ago is the headline finish, and the +0.49 SG Approach backs up the idea that this is real form, not a fluke. The issue at +15167 is the putter (-0.18) and zero course history to lean on, which is why the model has him at just 0.66% to win despite a clean 100% cut number. Fine for a top-20 dart at +1986 to top-5; the outright price is a pass.
 +15167
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+15167
Top 5+1986
Top 10+816
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 7 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T21 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): 74 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T18 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T37
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.20
🏌️ Approach+0.49
⛳ Around Green+0.16
🕳️ Putting-0.18
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
10.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.01
42
Taylor Pendrith▼
USA - OWGR #83
LONGSHOT
The +0.113 course fit adjustment is the strongest in this batch and pairs nicely with a T10 here in 2024, but everything else is screaming fade. Six of his last eight starts include three missed cuts and zero top-30s, with the most recent being a Zurich MC and a T71 at Hilton Head. At +15900 you're betting on a course-fit bounce-back from a player whose form has actively cratered — let someone else catch the falling knife.
 +15900
Tournament History & Odds
202565
2024T10
2023MC
Win+15900
Top 5+2219
Top 10+920
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T71 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T46 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T38 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T45 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T34
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.46
🏌️ Approach+0.20
⛳ Around Green-0.03
🕳️ Putting-0.16
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
9.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.11
Course History+0.05
43
Ryo Hisatsune▼
USA - OWGR #58
LONGSHOT
Quietly stacking results — T8 at Pebble, T13 at THE PLAYERS, T8 at Valero — and the +0.79 SG Total ranks among the best in this longshot tier. OWGR #58 with +0.41 approach and neutral putting is a profile that travels, and at +16116 with a 10.7% top-10 model number, the place markets are where the value lives. Outright is a stretch, but the +832 top-10 is genuinely live.
 +16116
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+16116
Top 5+2069
Top 10+832
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T65 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T60 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T8 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T30 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T33 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T45 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.28
🏌️ Approach+0.41
⛳ Around Green+0.09
🕳️ Putting+0.00
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
10.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.02
44
Harry Hall▼
USA - OWGR #64
LONGSHOT
The +0.55 SG Putting and +0.34 around-the-green numbers are elite short-game marks, and a T9 at Bay Hill in March proves he can hang at a real venue. Problem is the -0.23 off the tee and -0.038 course fit on a layout that historically rewards length — the wedges have to be perfect to overcome that gap. At +16338 the win equity isn't there, but he's a sneaky top-20 at +24.2% model probability.
 +16338
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023MC
Win+16338
Top 5+2213
Top 10+861
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T65 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T9 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee-0.23
🏌️ Approach+0.17
⛳ Around Green+0.34
🕳️ Putting+0.55
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
10.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History+0.02
45
Matt McCarty▼
USA - OWGR #45
LONGSHOT
Four straight top-25s including a T9 at Miami last week and a T10 at Zurich — the form is undeniable and OWGR #45 reflects it. The +0.80 SG Total and +0.30 approach are legitimate contender-tier marks, and yet he's the 17th choice at +17241 with no course history to dampen enthusiasm or hype it up. Easily the most underpriced player in this batch; top-10 at +931 is the bet.
 +17241
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+17241
Top 5+2382
Top 10+931
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T9 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T10 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T12 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T24 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T39 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T41 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T24 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T67
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.19
🏌️ Approach+0.30
⛳ Around Green+0.04
🕳️ Putting+0.26
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
9.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History-0.01
46
Max Homa▼
USA - OWGR #118
LONGSHOT
Two T8s here in 2023 and 2024 plus a T9 at Augusta last month is a real résumé, and the +0.081 course history adjustment is the strongest in this group. The catch is OWGR #118 and a +0.38 SG Total that doesn't justify the hype the name carries — three missed cuts in his last eight is the actual baseline. At +17810 you're paying for narrative; the model's 8.8% top-10 says hard pass on outrights.
 +17810
Tournament History & Odds
2025T30
2024T8
2023T8
Win+17810
Top 5+2552
Top 10+1035
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T69 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T9 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T13 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T37
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.12
🏌️ Approach+0.07
⛳ Around Green+0.00
🕳️ Putting+0.20
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History+0.08
47
Ryan Fox▼
USA - OWGR #55
LONGSHOT
The +0.07 course fit adjustment is the second-best in this tier and the T7 at Riviera in February shows the ball-striking travels to demanding setups. Recent form is choppy with two missed cuts mixed in, but the +0.24 approach and +0.20 off the tee profile fits a course that demands both. At +18592 with a 9.1% top-10 number, this is a small-unit place play, not a win bet.
 +18592
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+18592
Top 5+2501
Top 10+998
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T7 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.20
🏌️ Approach+0.24
⛳ Around Green+0.09
🕳️ Putting+0.03
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
9.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History+0.04
48
Alex Fitzpatrick▼
USA - OWGR #120
LONGSHOT
Won Zurich two weeks ago alongside his brother and followed it with a T9 at Miami — that's back-to-back top-10s for a player priced at +19255. The +0.79 SG Total and three made cuts in three trips here (T23, T52, T35) suggest the course fits, even if OWGR #120 looks ugly on paper. The win number is still a longshot for a reason, but +2506 to top-5 on a player in this kind of form is the value play of the batch.
 +19255
Tournament History & Odds
2025T23
2024T52
2023T35
Win+19255
Top 5+2506
Top 10+981
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T9 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 1
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.35
🏌️ Approach+0.23
⛳ Around Green+0.16
🕳️ Putting+0.05
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
9.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.00
Course History—
49
Brian Harman▼
USA - OWGR #53
LONGSHOT
A 2023 Open champion priced at +20519 should at least flash some signal in the data, and Harman doesn't. The course history reads T46-T47-MC, the course fit adjustment is a negative -0.063, and the recent form is a string of T25-T33-T38-T39 finishes that scream pack filler. The +0.28 SG Approach is fine but the putter (+0.09) has gone cold. Hard to see a win path here — easy fade.
 +20519
Tournament History & Odds
2025T46
2024T47
2023MC
Win+20519
Top 5+2708
Top 10+1076
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T33 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T39 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T11 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): 50 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T50 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T19
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee-0.07
🏌️ Approach+0.28
⛳ Around Green+0.21
🕳️ Putting+0.09
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
8.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.06
Course History-0.02
50
Ricky Castillo▼
USA - OWGR #86
LONGSHOT
The Puerto Rico Open winner from March is the most interesting unknown in this tier, with a +0.069 course fit adjustment and zero history to weigh him down. Castillo's +0.32 SG OTT is legit and the OWGR has climbed to #86 on the back of that win plus a runner-up at Cognizant. Recent form has cooled (T55-T60-T44), but at +21252 with a 20.3% top-20 number, he's a defensible dart in deep DFS pools.
 +21252
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+21252
Top 5+2771
Top 10+1079
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T55 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T60 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T44 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T46 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T70 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): 1 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): 5
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.32
🏌️ Approach+0.07
⛳ Around Green+0.10
🕳️ Putting+0.06
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
8.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History—
51
Sudarshan Yellamaraju▼
USA - OWGR #111
LONGSHOT
Look at the form line: T5 at THE PLAYERS, T6 in Houston, T14 at Valero — that's three top-15s in a major-strength stretch from a player most casuals can't pronounce. The +0.078 course fit adjustment is the best in this group and the +0.30 SG OTT plus +0.17 putter is a modern combo. Win equity at +21878 is still tiny (0.46%), but the 19.3% top-20 makes him a sharper place-bet than the names above him.
 +21878
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+21878
Top 5+2901
Top 10+1138
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 34 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T52 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T14 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T6 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T5 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T37 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T17
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.30
🏌️ Approach+0.09
⛳ Around Green-0.06
🕳️ Putting+0.17
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
8.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.08
Course History—
52
Nick Taylor▼
USA - OWGR #60
LONGSHOT
T9 at Miami last week is the headline, and the +0.46 SG Approach plus +0.28 around-the-green is the best ball-striking/short-game combo in this tier. The problem: Taylor's course fit grades at -0.063 and his history here (T17-T43-MC) doesn't inspire. Two-time PGA winner with closing chops, but +22456 feels about right rather than generous. Lean pass for outright, fine for top-20 (20.6%).
 +22456
Tournament History & Odds
2025T17
2024T43
2023MC
Win+22456
Top 5+2981
Top 10+1127
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T9 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T60 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T28 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T42 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T38 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T28 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee-0.06
🏌️ Approach+0.46
⛳ Around Green+0.28
🕳️ Putting-0.03
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
8.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.06
Course History-0.03
53
J.T. Poston▼
USA - OWGR #80
LONGSHOT
Three missed cuts in his last eight starts — Houston, Bay Hill, Riviera — is a real red flag for a player listed at +23246. The +0.24 SG Approach is solid but the -0.034 course fit and T23-T60-MC history at this venue tells the story. OWGR #80 with a top-10 number of just 8.2%. There are better longshots; this is a fade in outrights and a skip in matchups.
 +23246
Tournament History & Odds
2025T23
2024T60
2023MC
Win+23246
Top 5+2890
Top 10+1119
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T49 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T60 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T21 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T50 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T37
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.23
🏌️ Approach+0.24
⛳ Around Green+0.04
🕳️ Putting+0.05
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
8.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History-0.01
54
Aldrich Potgieter▼
USA - OWGR #74
LONGSHOT
The +0.242 course fit adjustment is far and away the best in this tier and it's not close — that's a model screaming about his +0.56 SG OTT and bomber profile. The catch: -0.29 around the green and -0.15 putting drag the SG Total down to a pedestrian +0.14. Coming off T14 Miami and T25 Heritage, with a runner-up effort earlier this season at Riviera. At +23996, he's the live longshot if the putter cooperates for one week.
 +23996
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+23996
Top 5+3174
Top 10+1271
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T14 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): 5 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T60
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.56
🏌️ Approach+0.01
⛳ Around Green-0.29
🕳️ Putting-0.15
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
7.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.24
Course History—
55
Matt Wallace▼
USA - OWGR #69
LONGSHOT
Runner-up at Valero three starts ago is the only data point that matters in this tier, and Wallace has followed it with T55-T30-T23 — steady rather than spectacular. The +0.21 around-the-green and +0.11 putting suggest the short game is in form, and the +0.059 course history adjustment is a small positive. At +24796 with a 7.3% top-10, he's a defensible top-20 sprinkle but the outright price isn't quite there.
 +24796
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023MC
Win+24796
Top 5+3322
Top 10+1266
Recent Form
Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T30 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T55 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T2 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T51 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T40 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T40
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee-0.03
🏌️ Approach+0.13
⛳ Around Green+0.21
🕳️ Putting+0.11
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
7.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.06

Round 1 — 3-Balls

Grp Tee Time Hole Player 1 Odds Player 2 Odds Player 3 Odds
1 07:45 1 Taylor Pendrith +119 J.T. Poston +128 Tie +854
2 07:55 1 Matt McCarty +141 Ryan Gerard +107 Tie +881
3 08:05 1 Daniel Berger -105 Austin Smotherman +158 Tie +896
4 08:15 1 Webb Simpson +131 Mackenzie Hughes +115 Tie +882
5 08:25 1 Jhonattan Vegas +147 Aldrich Potgieter +101 Tie +933
6 08:35 1 Alex Smalley -106 Matt Wallace +159 Tie +901
7 08:50 1 Tom Hoge +159 Denny McCarthy -104 Tie +862
8 09:00 1 Robert MacIntyre -101 Harry Hall +154 Tie +877
9 09:10 1 Hideki Matsuyama +113 Maverick McNealy +135 Tie +857
10 09:20 1 Keegan Bradley -114 Andrew Novak +171 Tie +913
11 09:30 1 Justin Rose +139 J.J. Spaun +108 Tie +900
12 09:40 1 Adam Scott -102 Gary Woodland +154 Tie +898
13 09:55 1 Ben Griffin +112 Akshay Bhatia +136 Tie +847
14 10:05 1 Rory McIlroy -105 Matt Fitzpatrick +160 Tie +869
15 10:15 1 Tommy Fleetwood +127 Si Woo Kim +120 Tie +841
16 10:25 1 Rickie Fowler -106 Alex Fitzpatrick +160 Tie +881
17 10:35 1 Corey Conners +151 Sam Burns -100 Tie +883
18 10:45 1 Min Woo Lee -220 Brian Campbell +338 Tie +1083
19 11:00 1 Tony Finau +137 Andrew Putnam +111 Tie +864
20 11:10 1 Max Homa +134 Ryo Hisatsune +113 Tie +866
21 11:20 1 Bud Cauley +103 Patrick Rodgers +147 Tie +890
22 11:30 1 Chandler Blanchet +167 Sudarshan Yellamaraju -111 Tie +902
23 11:40 1 David Lipsky +205 Sahith Theegala -134 Tie +912
24 11:50 1 Jason Day +134 Nicolai Hojgaard +113 Tie +885
25 12:05 1 Harris English -109 Ricky Castillo +165 Tie +896
26 12:15 1 Patrick Cantlay +115 Kurt Kitayama +131 Tie +886
27 12:25 1 Brian Harman +142 Jacob Bridgeman +105 Tie +893
28 12:35 1 Nick Taylor +107 Sungjae Im +141 Tie +866
29 12:45 1 Viktor Hovland -156 Nico Echavarria +238 Tie +964
30 12:55 1 Ryan Fox +159 Chris Gotterup -106 Tie +905
31 13:10 1 Xander Schauffele +104 Ludvig Aberg +146 Tie +870
32 13:20 1 Justin Thomas +197 Cameron Young -131 Tie +948
33 13:30 1 Jordan Spieth +127 Sepp Straka +118 Tie +878
34 13:40 1 Alex Noren +118 Pierceson Coody +128 Tie +865
35 13:50 1 Lucas Glover +154 Kristoffer Reitan -101 Tie +866
36 14:00 1 Michael Kim +161 Sam Stevens -107 Tie +895
COSMOS GOLF BETTING PREVIEW
Strokes Gained & Model from Data Golf. Odds from GolfData API.