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// BETTING PREVIEW - JUNE 18-21
U.S. Open
June 18-21, 2026 | Southampton, New York
⛅ Tournament Weather Forecast
Expect sunny skies with highs in the 75F range and light winds around 10 mph throughout the week. No rain is forecast, making for ideal scoring conditions.
🔒 Crew picks drop Wednesday night
Scottie Scheffler is the undeniable top play at the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club, with our model projecting a 12.0% win probability against implied odds of just 0.1% — the largest edge in the field by a wide margin. His +2.81 SG Total leads every player in the 156-man field, and his +1.09 SG Approach is the best iron game on the planet heading into a course that punishes imprecision. Beyond Scheffler, Tommy Fleetwood (+2412) and Russell Henley (+4381) flash elite course-fit scores of +0.143 and +0.183 respectively, making them premier each-way targets. In the longshot tier, Patrick Cantlay at +5609 quietly ranks fifth in the field in SG Total (+1.56) with a robust 17.6% top-10 probability, offering a compelling value window.
Scheffler Is the Slam-Dunk Top Pick
Scottie Scheffler's +2.81 SG Total leads the entire 156-player field by over half a stroke, and his 12.0% model win probability dwarfs the next closest player (Rory McIlroy at 5.8%). He also owns the field's best SG Approach mark at +1.09, a critical advantage at a demanding Shinnecock Hills Golf Club. His U.S. Open history includes a 3rd-place finish in 2023 and a T7 in 2025.
Scottie Scheffler
Fleetwood's Course Fit Is Elite
Tommy Fleetwood carries a +0.143 course-fit score — tied for the second-highest among the top 10 favorites — and a strong +1.85 SG Total (7th in the field). At +2412, our model gives him a 4.0% win probability, representing nearly 40x implied edge. The missed cut in 2025 may have suppressed his price, but his T5 at the 2023 U.S. Open and overall skill profile scream value.
Tommy Fleetwood
Russell Henley: Best Course Fit, Underpriced
Henley boasts the highest course-fit adjustment among the top 10 at +0.183 and has been a U.S. Open machine: T10 (2025), T7 (2024), and T14 (2023) in his last three starts. At +4381 with a 2.2% model win probability, he profiles as one of the best each-way plays on the board.
Russell Henley
Cantlay Is the Premium Longshot
Patrick Cantlay at +5609 ranks 11th in SG Total at +1.56 but carries a 17.6% top-10 probability — the second-highest among all longshots. His elite ball-striking and calm demeanor under major-championship pressure make him an ideal top-10 or top-20 bet at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club.
Patrick Cantlay
McIlroy's Agonizing Near-Misses Continue?
Rory McIlroy has finished 2nd in back-to-back U.S. Opens (2023 and 2024) and our model gives him a 5.8% win probability at +1634. His +2.23 SG Total ranks second in the field. The slight -0.008 course-fit ding is negligible — he's the clear number-two behind Scheffler and offers legitimate outright value.
Rory McIlroy
Fitzpatrick's Irons Can Dominate Here
Matt Fitzpatrick ranks 4th in SG Approach at +0.84 and carries a +0.123 course-fit score, suggesting Shinnecock Hills Golf Club's precise approach-shot demands suit his game perfectly. At +2420 with a 4.0% model win probability, he's priced nearly identically to Fleetwood but with a stronger iron game.
Matt Fitzpatrick
Defending Champion Spaun Brings Live Iron Game
Defending champion J.J. Spaun ranks an eye-popping 2nd in SG Approach at +0.93, trailing only Scheffler. At +6861, he's deep in longshot territory, but his elite ball-striking gives him a legitimate path to contend again. He's worth a small-stakes top-20 look.
J.J. Spaun
Si Woo Kim: Sneaky Course-Fit Standout
Si Woo Kim's +0.146 course-fit score is the highest among the top 10 favorites, and his +1.80 SG Total (9th in the field) supports a 2.3% win probability at +4220. He's consistently made U.S. Open cuts (T42, T32, T39 the last three years), making him a solid top-20 play at an inflated price.
Si Woo Kim
DeChambeau Offers Marquee Longshot Appeal
The 2024 U.S. Open champion Bryson DeChambeau is available at +5369 with a 16.3% top-10 probability and a +1.31 SG Total. While his current form doesn't match the elite tier, his proven ability to peak at this specific major makes him a worthwhile longshot flier, especially for top-10 and top-20 markets.
Bryson DeChambeau
Aberg's MC Should Suppress, Not Scare
Ludvig Aberg's missed cut in the 2025 U.S. Open likely inflated his price to +2863, but his +1.90 SG Total ranks 5th in the entire field and his model win probability sits at 3.4%. At just 25, he has the firepower and ball-striking to contend — buy the dip if the market is reacting to one bad week.
Ludvig Aberg
Complete Betting Board
| # | Player | Why They Could Win | Win Odds GolfData API |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Scottie Scheffler
USA - OWGR #1
FAVORITE
|
Six straight starts without a win, but look at the finishes: runner-up at the Masters, RBC Heritage, and Miami Championship, then a solo 3rd at the Byron Nelson. The world #1 leads this field in SG Total (+2.81) and Approach (+1.09), with a T7 here in 2025 and a solo 3rd in 2023. The model gives him a 11.97% win probability, the highest in the field by a comfortable margin, and +736 is fair to slightly generous for the most dominant player on the planet. |
+736 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T7
2024T41
20233
Win+736
Top 5+190
Top 10+103
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T12 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 3 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T14 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): 2 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 2 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
12.0%
Top 10 Probability
49.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.14
Course History—
| |||
| 2 |
Rory McIlroy
USA - OWGR #2
CONTENDER
|
Runner-up at this event in back-to-back years (2023, 2024) before a T19 in 2025, and the Masters title in April finally closed the career grand slam. The +0.92 SG OTT and +0.79 Approach still profile as elite, even if the T12 at Memorial and T7 at the PGA suggest he's coasting post-Augusta. At +1634 with a 5.77% model win share, he's priced like a second-tier contender — fair, not a steal, but the ceiling justifies a sprinkle. |
+1634 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T19
20242
20232
Win+1634
Top 5+392
Top 10+206
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T12 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T7 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T19 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 1
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
5.8%
Top 10 Probability
32.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 3 |
Xander Schauffele
USA - OWGR #12
CONTENDER
|
Three straight top-12s at this event (T10-T7-T12 from 2023-25) is the kind of course-history line that prints money in majors. The +0.037 course history adjustment confirms it, and the all-around profile — positive across every SG category with +0.80 Approach — is exactly what holds up on a U.S. Open setup. A T7 at the PGA and T9 at the Masters say the major form is sharp. At +1971 with a 30.2% top-10 model number, the place markets are where the real value lives. |
+1971 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T12
2024T7
2023T10
Win+1971
Top 5+443
Top 10+231
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T29 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T7 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T60 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T12 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T9
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.8%
Top 10 Probability
30.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 4 |
Jon Rahm
USA - OWGR #8
CONTENDER
|
A T2 at the PGA Championship in his most recent start is the loudest signal in this entire field — Rahm shows up for majors. The +2.17 SG Total and +0.88 Approach rank among the best here, and a T7 at this event in 2025 plus a T10 in 2023 says the U.S. Open setup suits him. At +2077 with a 4.59% model win probability, the LIV discount is doing real work; this price would be closer to +1400 if he were a full PGA Tour member. |
+2077 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T7
2024NA
2023T10
Win+2077
Top 5+461
Top 10+236
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T2 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T38
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.6%
Top 10 Probability
29.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 5 |
Tommy Fleetwood
USA - OWGR #6
CONTENDER
|
The +0.143 course fit adjustment is the highest among the top tier, and it's not a fluke — Fleetwood's combo of +0.62 Approach and +0.34 Putting is purpose-built for narrow fairways and firm greens. A T4 at Memorial and T5 at Truist sandwich a missed cut at the PGA, but the T5 here in 2023 reminds you he was a U.S. Open runner-up at Pebble in 2018. +2412 with a 28.5% top-10 number is solid value, though the winless-on-PGA-Tour albatross still has to be priced in. |
+2412 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T16
2023T5
Win+2412
Top 5+509
Top 10+251
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T11 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T4 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T5 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T52 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T33 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T10
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.0%
Top 10 Probability
28.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.14
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 6 |
Matt Fitzpatrick
USA - OWGR #4
CONTENDER
|
Two wins (Zurich, RBC Heritage) and a runner-up at the RBC Canadian Open in his last seven starts — this is a player in peak form, and he's a former U.S. Open champion (2022 Brookline) who knows exactly how to grind one of these out. The +0.84 Approach and +0.45 Around Green numbers are perfect for major-championship rough. Course history here is mediocre (T17 best across 2023-25), but the +0.123 course fit adjustment and red-hot form make +2420 one of the cleanest value plays on the board. |
+2420 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T38
2024T64
2023T17
Win+2420
Top 5+490
Top 10+245
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): 2 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T36 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T14 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T52 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 1 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 1 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.0%
Top 10 Probability
29.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.12
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 7 |
Ludvig Aberg
USA - OWGR #13
CONTENDER
|
A T4 at the PGA Championship and T4 at the RBC Heritage anchor a stretch of five top-10s in seven starts, and the +0.76 Approach paired with +0.69 OTT is the prototype U.S. Open ball-striking profile. The missed cut here in 2025 is a yellow flag, but he was T12 as a rookie in 2024 at Pinehurst. At +2863 with a 24.0% top-10 model number, the price reflects the inconsistency more than the ceiling — and the ceiling is a major title. |
+2863 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T12
2023NA
Win+2863
Top 5+623
Top 10+317
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 39 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T17 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T4 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T8 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T4 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T21 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T5
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.4%
Top 10 Probability
24.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History—
| |||
| 8 |
Cameron Young
USA - OWGR #3
CONTENDER
|
World #3 and a T4 at this event in 2025, yet the recent form is genuinely concerning: T46 at Memorial, a missed cut at the Byron Nelson, and a T26 at the PGA since the Miami Championship win. The +0.66 OTT and +0.67 Approach numbers still profile as elite, and a T3 at the Masters proves the major game is there. +3032 is a fair price for a boom-or-bust ball-striker — the model's 3.19% win share suggests outright is a stretch, but top-10 at +327 has legs. |
+3032 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T4
2024T67
2023T32
Win+3032
Top 5+651
Top 10+327
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T46 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T67 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T10 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): 1 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 35 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T3 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.2%
Top 10 Probability
23.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History—
| |||
| 9 |
Si Woo Kim
USA - OWGR #18
CONTENDER
|
A runner-up at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson plus a T10 at the Memorial in his most recent two starts headlines a stretch that also includes a 3rd at the RBC Heritage and a T4 at the Miami Championship — Kim is genuinely peaking. The +0.146 course fit adjustment is among the highest in this field, and at +4220 with a 21.4% top-10 number, the price is mispriced relative to the form. World #18 isn't a fluke. Live ticket. |
+4220 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T42
2024T32
2023T39
Win+4220
Top 5+767
Top 10+367
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T10 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 2 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T65 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T4 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 3 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 47 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T10 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.3%
Top 10 Probability
21.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.15
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 10 |
Russell Henley
USA - OWGR #5
CONTENDER
|
Three consecutive top-14 finishes at this event (T14-T7-T10 from 2023-25) paired with a win at the Charles Schwab Challenge and a T3 at the Masters earlier this season — this is a legitimate major contender hiding at +4381. The +0.183 course fit adjustment is the highest among everyone in this writeup, and OWGR #5 confirms it's not noise. A PGA Championship MC is the only blemish. Plus money on a guy who fits like this is value. |
+4381 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T10
2024T7
2023T14
Win+4381
Top 5+816
Top 10+391
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T22 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): 1 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T49 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T3 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.2%
Top 10 Probability
20.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.18
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 11 |
Sam Burns
USA - OWGR #30
CONTENDER
|
A T4 at the Memorial in his most recent major-quality test, plus a T7 at the Masters and back-to-back top-10s here in 2024 (T9) and 2025 (T7) — Burns has quietly built a U.S. Open résumé. The +0.64 SG Putting is the elite separator in this group, and on a course where converting your looks matters more than usual, that's the bet. At +4774 with an 18.5% top-10, the top-5 number at +910 is where the real value sits. |
+4774 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T7
2024T9
2023T32
Win+4774
Top 5+910
Top 10+441
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T20 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T4 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T7 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.0%
Top 10 Probability
18.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 12 |
Bryson DeChambeau
USA - OWGR #32
VALUE
|
The 2024 U.S. Open champion at +5369 looks tempting until you see the two MCs at the 2025 U.S. Open and 2026 Masters and another MC at the PGA Championship — those are the only data points we have this year and they're all red flags. The +0.84 SG OTT still leads this group and his bomb-and-gouge profile travels in majors, which is the only reason to even consider it. Course fit grades negative (-0.039). Hard fade at this price unless you're buying the major-week ceiling on pure name. |
+5369 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
20241
2023T20
Win+5369
Top 5+1051
Top 10+513
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
16.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 13 |
Collin Morikawa
USA - OWGR #10
VALUE
|
Three straight T14-or-better finishes here (T14-T14-T23) and the +0.73 SG Approach is the iron play this venue demands. The problem is the recent form: a T55 at the PGA Championship and T62 at the Miami Championship sandwich a T4 at the RBC Heritage, so the floor is shaky. At +5582 with an 18.1% top-10, the place markets (+452 top-10) are the smarter play than the outright. Two-time major winner — worth a small sprinkle. |
+5582 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T23
2024T14
2023T14
Win+5582
Top 5+958
Top 10+452
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T29 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T55 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T62 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T4 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T7
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
18.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.11
Course History—
| |||
| 14 |
Patrick Cantlay
USA - OWGR #36
VALUE
|
The underlying ball-striking is loud — +0.75 SG Approach and +1.56 SG Total — and a T3 here in 2024 plus a T10 at the Truist Championship and T8 at the RBC Heritage say the game is there. The MC at the 2025 U.S. Open is the only concerning data point on the course history line, and the +5609 price reflects that. With a 17.6% top-10 and OWGR #36 understating the talent level, this is a fair top-20 play at +496. |
+5609 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T3
2023T14
Win+5609
Top 5+996
Top 10+468
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T17 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T10 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T8 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
17.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 15 |
Viktor Hovland
USA - OWGR #28
VALUE
|
Solo 3rd at the U.S. Open in 2025 and a solo 3rd at the RBC Canadian Open in his most recent start — when Hovland is on, the ceiling in this field is matched by maybe five guys. The +0.70 SG Approach and +0.096 course fit adjustment back it up. The PGA Championship MC is the volatility tax you pay, but at +5967 with a 16.1% top-10, the outright price is the right way to play a boom-or-bust profile. Live longshot. |
+5967 |
Tournament History & Odds
20253
2024MC
202319
Win+5967
Top 5+1109
Top 10+520
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): 3 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T31 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
16.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History—
| |||
| 16 |
Justin Thomas
USA - OWGR #16
VALUE
|
Three straight missed cuts at the U.S. Open (2023-25) is the worst course-history line in this writeup, and it's why he's +6545 despite being OWGR #16 with a +1.46 SG Total. The T4 at the PGA Championship proves the major game is intact, but this specific venue has eaten him alive. The -0.006 course history adjustment is being generous. Two-time major winner price-shopping into a fade — pass on the outright, maybe a small top-20 stab. |
+6545 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023MC
Win+6545
Top 5+1160
Top 10+550
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T19 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T13 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T4 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 13 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T77 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
15.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 17 |
Chris Gotterup
USA - OWGR #11
VALUE
|
An OWGR of #11 is the eyebrow-raiser here — Gotterup has quietly climbed into the world's top 15 and just posted a T10 at the PGA Championship to go with a T6 at the Houston Open. The +1.41 SG Total and clean approach numbers (+0.44) play at a U.S. Open, and his T23 in his 2025 debut here suggests he can handle the setup. At +6574 with a 14.1% top-10 number, the place price is where the value lives, not the outright. |
+6574 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T23
2024NA
2023NA
Win+6574
Top 5+1278
Top 10+610
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T27 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T10 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T14 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T24 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
14.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History—
| |||
| 18 |
J.J. Spaun
USA - OWGR #9
VALUE
|
The defending champion is priced like an afterthought at +6861, which is a gift if you believe in repeatable skill. Spaun's +0.93 SG Approach is elite-tier for this field, he's already won the Valero Texas Open in 2026, and he backed it up with a T6 at Colonial and a T12 at the Memorial. Course Fit Adj of +0.088 says the model loves the profile too — easy lean for outright and top-10 tickets. |
+6861 |
Tournament History & Odds
20251
2024NA
2023NA
Win+6861
Top 5+1158
Top 10+537
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T12 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T6 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T5 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T14 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): 1
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
15.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.09
Course History—
| |||
| 19 |
Tyrrell Hatton
USA - OWGR #21
VALUE
|
Three straight made cuts at this event with a T4 in 2025 headlining the run, and Hatton showed up at Augusta with a T3 in April. The PGA Championship missed cut is the wart, but a +0.59 SG Approach paired with a positive Course History Adj (+0.037) tells you the venue suits the iron play. At +6909 with a 14.1% top-10 mark, he's a defensible top-20 dart even with the limited rep sample. |
+6909 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T4
2024T26
2023T27
Win+6909
Top 5+1305
Top 10+608
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
14.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 20 |
Min Woo Lee
USA - OWGR #35
VALUE
|
The ball-striking metrics jump off the page — +1.47 SG Total leads this longshot tier — and Lee's T5 here in 2023 proves the ceiling exists at this event. The Memorial missed cut and a flat T18 at the PGA take some shine off, but a T3 at the Houston Open in March shows the form is closer than it looks. At +6942 with the third-best SG profile in the field, he's a reasonable outright stab but the top-5 number at +1287 is the cleaner play. |
+6942 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T21
2023T5
Win+6942
Top 5+1287
Top 10+591
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T18 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T14 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T18 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T60 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
14.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 21 |
Kurt Kitayama
USA - OWGR #31
VALUE
|
Two missed cuts in two career U.S. Open starts is the red flag you can't ignore, full stop. Yes, the recent form is genuinely strong — T10 at the PGA, T9 at Miami, T8 at Hilton Head — and the +0.66 SG Approach is legitimate. But at +7563 with zero positive history at this specific event and a Course History Adj of None, the price isn't long enough to overlook the pattern. Pass on the outright. |
+7563 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023MC
Win+7563
Top 5+1345
Top 10+638
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T22 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T10 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T19 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T9 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T8 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 51 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T60
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
13.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 22 |
Brooks Koepka
USA - OWGR #110
VALUE
|
Five-time major winner, three straight made cuts at this event (T12-T26-T17), and yet the underlying numbers are quietly mediocre — +0.75 SG Total is the weakest of this tier by a wide margin. The RBC Canadian withdrawal and a T55 at the PGA Championship suggest the form isn't trending up either. The major pedigree gets him to +7868, but the model's 1.26% win number says that's roughly fair. Hard pass. |
+7868 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T12
2024T26
2023T17
Win+7868
Top 5+1390
Top 10+659
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): WD • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T14 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T55 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): T11 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
13.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.00
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 23 |
Maverick McNealy
USA - OWGR #37
VALUE
|
The putter is the engine here — +0.60 SG Putting leads everyone in this group — and McNealy paired it with a T10 at the Memorial to head into this. The Course Fit Adj of +0.044 is the best of the longshot tier, and he posted a 37 in his lone U.S. Open start in 2025, so there's no scarring. At +8363 with a 12.6% top-10 number, the top-20 ticket at implied 24.9% is the most efficient way to play it. |
+8363 |
Tournament History & Odds
202537
2024NA
2023NA
Win+8363
Top 5+1497
Top 10+691
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T10 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T18 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T18 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T21
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
12.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History—
| |||
| 24 |
Wyndham Clark
USA - OWGR #34
VALUE
|
Won this championship in 2023, just won the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, and finished solo 3rd at the Memorial — that's a major champion peaking at the right time. The missed cut at the PGA is noise next to a +1.21 SG Total and +0.46 approach number, and the Course Fit Adj of +0.032 backs up the resume. At +8435 he's the most underpriced name in this tier by a comfortable margin — a clear outright lean. |
+8435 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T56
20231
Win+8435
Top 5+1450
Top 10+678
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T11 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 3 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 1 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T20 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T21 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
12.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History—
| |||
| 25 |
Patrick Reed
USA - OWGR #27
VALUE
|
Quietly stacked a T12 at the Masters and T10 at the PGA Championship in back-to-back majors, and now Reed shows up at #27 OWGR with a +0.59 SG Approach number that plays anywhere. His T23 in 2025 here is more useful than it looks given how the venue punishes ball-strikers who can't scramble (+0.24 SG ARG helps). At +8855 with a 13.6% top-10 number, the price overcompensates for the LIV stigma — this is a defensible top-20 ticket. |
+8855 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T23
2024NA
2023T56
Win+8855
Top 5+1434
Top 10+636
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T10 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
13.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.08
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 26 |
Justin Rose
USA - OWGR #7
VALUE
|
Three straight missed cuts at this event is a genuine red flag — and it's the reason a world #7 with a T3 at the Masters and T10 at the PGA Championship is sitting at +9117. The -0.032 course history adjustment confirms the model sees the pattern. Rose's iron play (+0.57 SG Approach) and major pedigree absolutely play, but you're paying for the resume and betting against a documented venue mismatch. Top-20 at +400-ish is the only spot worth touching. |
+9117 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023MC
Win+9117
Top 5+1632
Top 10+754
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T12 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T10 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T45 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T65 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
11.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 27 |
Robert MacIntyre
USA - OWGR #17
VALUE
|
Runner-up here in 2025. That alone should command attention at +9640, and the supporting cast checks out: +1.20 SG Total, +0.50 off the tee, and +0.43 SG Putting in a field where the flatstick decides things. The recent form is choppy (MC at the PGA, MC at Memorial), but a T15 at the RBC Canadian Open and a runner-up at the Valero Texas Open show the ceiling is real. Top-10 at +662 is the play — this is a course-fit bet, not a momentum bet. |
+9640 |
Tournament History & Odds
20252
2024MC
2023NA
Win+9640
Top 5+1485
Top 10+662
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T15 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T42 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T60 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
13.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History—
| |||
| 28 |
Adam Scott
USA - OWGR #49
VALUE
|
At 45 years old and OWGR #49, Scott's +0.72 SG Approach is still elite — full stop. A T12 at Memorial and T4 at the Miami Championship say the iron play hasn't aged, and a T12 here in 2025 confirms the venue doesn't scare him. The putter (-0.07) is the obvious cap on the win equity, which is why +9752 with a 1.01% model win number is honest pricing. Top-20 at +23.7% implied is where you engage, not the outright. |
+9752 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T12
2024T32
2023MC
Win+9752
Top 5+1646
Top 10+738
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T12 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T24 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T4 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T24 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
11.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History-0.04
| |||
| 29 |
Jordan Spieth
USA - OWGR #51
VALUE
|
The narrative says Spieth is back; the numbers say not quite. A T12 at Masters, T18 at PGA, and T19 at Byron Nelson are solidly middle-tier results, and his U.S. Open history (T23, T41, MC) tells you the venue type isn't his strong suit. +0.32 SG Approach is fine, not field-leading, and the missed cut at Memorial is the most recent data point. At +9867, you're paying for name equity — fade the outright, consider a small top-20 sprinkle at best. |
+9867 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T23
2024T41
2023MC
Win+9867
Top 5+1611
Top 10+747
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T18 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T52 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T18 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T63
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
11.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 30 |
Bud Cauley
USA - OWGR #40
VALUE
|
Just won the RBC Canadian Open. That's the lead, that's the hook, and at +10426 it's borderline disrespectful for a guy also carrying a solo 7th at the RBC Heritage and T22 at Memorial in his recent log. The +0.51 SG Approach and +1.14 SG Total back up the form, and the +0.069 course fit grade says this setup suits him even with the 2025 MC on the ledger. Top-10 at +772 is one of the sharper plays in this tier. |
+10426 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10426
Top 5+1733
Top 10+772
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): 1 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T22 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T37 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): 7 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T21
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
11.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History—
| |||
| 31 |
Ben Griffin
USA - OWGR #15
VALUE
|
+1.32 SG Total is the second-highest number in this entire longshot batch, and Griffin's +0.53 SG Putting leads the group outright. Pair that with a T10 here in 2025, a solo 3rd at Charles Schwab, a solo 3rd at the Miami Championship, and a T14 at the PGA — this is a top-15 OWGR player priced like a bystander. The Memorial MC is the only blemish in an otherwise loud profile. +10501 for the win is the value spot; the 12.2% top-10 number is the safer entry. |
+10501 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T10
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10501
Top 5+1648
Top 10+720
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T3 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T14 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T63 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): 3 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T10 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T33 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
12.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History—
| |||
| 32 |
Kristoffer Reitan
USA - OWGR #26
VALUE
|
Won the Truist Championship, finished T6 at Memorial, runner-up at the Zurich, T10 at Valero — that's a legitimate breakout résumé landing at OWGR #26. No U.S. Open history is the obvious unknown, and the neutral course fit (+0.012) means the model isn't projecting him forward on venue. Still, +1.09 SG Total and the best driving number in this group (+0.60 OTT) travel. At +10750 with zero major pedigree, the outright is a stab — top-20 at 21.9% implied is the rational ticket. |
+10750 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10750
Top 5+1796
Top 10+812
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T60 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T6 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 1 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T14 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T2 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T10 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
11.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+-0.00
| |||
| 33 |
Harris English
USA - OWGR #22
VALUE
|
OWGR #22 with a T8 finish here in 2023 is the résumé bullet that matters, even if 2025's T59 cooled the hype. English brings +1.15 SG Total and the field-best +0.57 SG Putting in this longshot group, plus a T4 at the RBC Heritage and T17 at Memorial signaling the game is sharp. At +11094 with 11.6% top-10 equity, the outright is a stretch, but the +762 top-10 is where the actual value lives. |
+11094 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T59
2024T41
2023T8
Win+11094
Top 5+1722
Top 10+762
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T17 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T18 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T24 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T55 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T4 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T30 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
11.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.08
Course History—
| |||
| 34 |
Alex Fitzpatrick
USA - OWGR #69
VALUE
|
Win at the Zurich Classic, solo 4th at the Truist, T6 at Memorial, T9 in Miami — Fitzpatrick has quietly stacked one of the best three-month runs of any longshot on this board. The tee-to-green profile (+0.42 OTT, +0.47 APP) fits a U.S. Open setup, and the T17 here in 2023 hints at the ceiling. At +11178 with a 10.6% top-10 number, the price doesn't reflect the form. Outright is a swing, but +845 top-10 is live. |
+11178 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T38
2024T64
2023T17
Win+11178
Top 5+1958
Top 10+845
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T20 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T6 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T75 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 4 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T9 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 1
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
10.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.09
Course History—
| |||
| 35 |
Shane Lowry
USA - OWGR #44
VALUE
|
+0.64 SG Approach is the headline skill, and it travels to U.S. Open setups better than almost anything else. Problem: Lowry missed the cut here in 2025, and the recent slate (T29 Canadian, T22 Memorial, T44 PGA) is steady but uninspiring. The model gives him 0.87% to win and an 11.7% top-10, which is honest pricing at +11416. Hard to make a case for the outright — top-20 at +405-ish range is the cleaner play. |
+11416 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T19
2023T20
Win+11416
Top 5+1733
Top 10+755
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T29 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T22 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): MC • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T30 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
11.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 36 |
Hideki Matsuyama
USA - OWGR #24
VALUE
|
A solo 6th here in 2024 is the calling card, and Matsuyama's +0.48 SG Approach plus +0.36 Around the Green is exactly the skill mix that survives U.S. Open carnage. The concern: -0.13 off the tee at a venue that punishes crooked drivers, and the recent form (T43 Memorial, 71st at Truist) is sluggish. At +11948 the outright is a pass, but his 22.6% top-20 number makes the +820 top-10 a defensible sprinkle. |
+11948 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T42
20246
2023T32
Win+11948
Top 5+1871
Top 10+820
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T43 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T13 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 71 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T53 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T12 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T21
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
10.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 37 |
Joaquin Niemann
USA - OWGR #80
VALUE
|
+1.18 SG Total and a field-leading +0.73 off the tee in this longshot tier — Niemann's raw ball-striking is genuinely elite. The catch is the major résumé: MC here in 2025, only one PGA Tour data point in recent form (T18 at the PGA), and a course fit adjustment that actually dings him at -0.009. At +12348 you're paying for the LIV mystery box. Numbers say fade the outright, take the top-20 if anything. |
+12348 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023T32
Win+12348
Top 5+1878
Top 10+837
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
10.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 38 |
Aaron Rai
USA - OWGR #14
VALUE
|
PGA Championship winner. That's the lead, and it changes the entire conversation at +12374. Rai's +0.65 SG Approach is tied for best in this batch, his +0.157 course fit adjustment is the highest number on this page, and he's already shown he can close a major. The MC at the Canadian Open is noise; T19 at Memorial and a solo 5th at Myrtle Beach are the real signals. This is the longshot to actually bet. |
+12374 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T33
2024T19
2023NA
Win+12374
Top 5+1841
Top 10+799
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T19 • PGA Championship (May 2026): 1 • Myrtle Beach Classic (May 2026): 5 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T24 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 48
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
11.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.16
Course History—
| |||
| 39 |
Nicolai Hojgaard
USA - OWGR #33
VALUE
|
Solo 2nd at the Houston Open and T2 at the Truist prove the ceiling is real, but back-to-back missed cuts at the Canadian and Memorial are a flashing red light heading into a major. The -0.049 course fit adjustment is the worst in this group, and T46/T50 in his two U.S. Open starts says the setup hasn't fit. At +12693 with a 10.1% top-10, the price is honest and uninteresting. Pass. |
+12693 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T46
2024T50
2023NA
Win+12693
Top 5+1973
Top 10+886
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T2 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T23 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T55 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): 2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
10.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History—
| |||
| 40 |
Ryan Gerard
USA - OWGR #23
VALUE
|
Solo 2nd at the Memorial Tournament is a massive result, and it's the reason a player ranked OWGR #23 is suddenly worth a longshot look at +13029. The profile backs it up: +0.65 SG Approach, +0.27 putting, and a +0.073 course fit bump. The U.S. Open history (T50, T56) says the ceiling here is capped, but the top-20 at +21.1% equity makes the +892 top-10 a sneaky number. Outright is a flier, place markets are the play. |
+13029 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T50
2024NA
2023T56
Win+13029
Top 5+2047
Top 10+892
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 2 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T10 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T70 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T65 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): 34 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T38 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
10.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History—
| |||
| 41 |
Jake Knapp
USA - OWGR #43
VALUE
|
An 11th at the Masters is the eye-catcher here, paired with a T6 at the Houston Open to show this isn't a one-off major flash. The +1.28 SG Total profile is well-rounded with no real weakness, and the 0.75% model win equity is live for a +13233 ticket. The MC in his only prior U.S. Open start is a yellow flag, but a 9.3% top-10 number at OWGR #43 says the outright is too rich to chase — play him in the top-20 market instead. |
+13233 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023NA
Win+13233
Top 5+2176
Top 10+980
Recent Form
RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T74 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): 11 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
9.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History—
| |||
| 42 |
David Puig
USA - OWGR #57
VALUE
|
A T18 at the PGA Championship is the lone PGA-recognized data point on the page, and it's the entire bull case at +13567. The -0.04 SG Approach is a real problem at a U.S. Open setup, and the -0.04 course fit adjustment confirms the model isn't buying the geometry either. OWGR #57 with a 0.73% win probability says this is a pure dart — top-20 at +1919-ish is the only sensible angle, and even that's a stretch. |
+13567 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
202455
2023NA
Win+13567
Top 5+2271
Top 10+986
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
9.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History—
| |||
| 43 |
Alex Noren
USA - OWGR #20
LONGSHOT
|
Two MCs in two U.S. Open starts is ugly, but the +0.118 course fit adjustment is one of the strongest in this tier and a solo 9th at the Memorial says the iron game is sharp. OWGR #20 with +0.30 SG Approach and +0.41 SG Putting is a legitimately balanced profile, and the 9.5% top-10 number at +15052 is where the value sits. Fade the outright, hammer the top-20 — Noren's floor is higher than the price suggests. |
+15052 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023MC
Win+15052
Top 5+2173
Top 10+950
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 9 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T26 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T31 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T7 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T65 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T30 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T30
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
9.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.12
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 44 |
Jacob Bridgeman
USA - OWGR #25
LONGSHOT
|
OWGR #25 at +15900 is a number worth interrogating, and the +0.35 SG Approach plus +0.39 SG Putting combo travels to any setup. A T11 at the Canadian Open is a nice tune-up, but the MC at the PGA Championship and a MC in his only prior U.S. Open appearance are real concerns for a player still building major reps. The 0.62% win equity and +0.056 course fit adjustment make him a fine top-20 sprinkle, not an outright play. |
+15900 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+15900
Top 5+2297
Top 10+991
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T11 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T34 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T52 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T65 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T33 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
9.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History—
| |||
| 45 |
Sepp Straka
USA - OWGR #19
LONGSHOT
|
The +0.69 SG Approach is elite — top-tier in this entire field — and that's the skill that prints checks at a U.S. Open. Problem is, the +0.01 putting and a MC at the PGA Championship plus a MC here in 2025 tell you the short game has betrayed him in the biggest spots. T4 at Miami proves the ceiling exists, but at +16338 with OWGR #19, the market is pricing in the irons and ignoring the putter. Pass the outright, lean top-10 only if you trust the flatstick to wake up. |
+16338 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T56
2023MC
Win+16338
Top 5+2686
Top 10+1145
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T40 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T63 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T4 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T42 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T41 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History—
| |||
| 46 |
Alex Smalley
USA - OWGR #42
LONGSHOT
|
T2 at the PGA Championship and a T3 at Colonial in the same stretch is a genuine breakout, and the +0.47 SG Approach backs up the results. No prior U.S. Open starts is the asterisk, but the +0.052 course fit adjustment and an 8.4% top-10 number at +17444 make this one of the better longshot prices on the board. The MC at Memorial cools the heater slightly — top-10 is where the bet is, not the outright. |
+17444 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+17444
Top 5+2545
Top 10+1085
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T3 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T2 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T17 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T7 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T2 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T14 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History—
| |||
| 47 |
Keegan Bradley
USA - OWGR #39
LONGSHOT
|
Back-to-back top-35s here in 2024 and 2025 isn't sexy, but it's a Ryder Cup captain who shows up at U.S. Opens with a +0.27 SG Around the Green that thrives in penal rough. T19 at Memorial and T19 at the Truist say the form is steady-not-spectacular, and the MC at the PGA Championship is a meaningful blemish. At +17918 with a 0.56% model win and a slightly negative course history adjustment, this is a top-20 dabble at best. |
+17918 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T33
2024T32
2023MC
Win+17918
Top 5+2821
Top 10+1196
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T19 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T19 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T49 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T12 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T21
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 48 |
Gary Woodland
USA - OWGR #45
LONGSHOT
|
A win at the Houston Open earlier this season is a remarkable storyline given his health journey, and the +0.73 SG off the tee is exactly the profile that survives U.S. Open rough lines. The issue: back-to-back MCs at this event in 2024 and 2025, a -0.22 around the green that gets exposed on firm surrounds, and a MC at the PGA Championship that reset the narrative. At +17972 the win bet is a dream, but a T6 at Colonial and T8 at Hilton Head support a top-20 sprinkle. |
+17972 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023T49
Win+17972
Top 5+2780
Top 10+1172
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T36 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T6 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T17 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T8 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T33 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): 1
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 49 |
Keith Mitchell
USA - OWGR #100
LONGSHOT
|
A solo 5th at the Byron Nelson is the lone bright spot in a stretch littered with missed cuts and middling weekends, and it's not enough to make +19317 interesting. The +0.58 SG off the tee is genuinely useful at a U.S. Open setup, but -0.11 putting and a negative course-fit adjustment (-0.021) cap the ceiling. Model gives him a 0.52% win number for a reason. Pass. |
+19317 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023T20
Win+19317
Top 5+2885
Top 10+1257
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T29 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 5 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T65 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T55 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Apr 2026): T30 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T14
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History—
| |||
| 50 |
Rickie Fowler
USA - OWGR #41
LONGSHOT
|
The T2 at the Truist Championship and T8/T9 run at Heritage and Miami was a real flash of the old Rickie, but two missed cuts since at Colonial and Memorial tell you which version showed up most recently. The T5 at this event in 2023 gives him a credible big-stage gear, and the 0.048 course-fit adjustment likes the profile. At +21252 with a 0.47% model win, he's a sprinkle at best — top-20 ticket is the smarter play. |
+21252 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023T5
Win+21252
Top 5+3197
Top 10+1363
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • PGA Championship (May 2026): T60 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T2 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T9 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T8 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
6.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 51 |
Jackson Koivun
USA - OWGR #260
LONGSHOT
|
No SG profile, no recent form data, and an MC in his only prior start at this event — yet the book has him at +21483 on name and amateur pedigree. The model's 0.46% win number is essentially a coin flip in a blender, and OWGR #260 tells you the resume doesn't yet match the price. Hard to construct a real win path here. Fade or ignore. |
+21483 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+21483
Top 5+3121
Top 10+1308
Recent Form
—
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History—
| |||
| 52 |
J.T. Poston
USA - OWGR #38
LONGSHOT
|
Won the Memorial outright — at Muirfield Village, under brutal scoring conditions — which is exactly the kind of result that should travel to a U.S. Open. The +0.44 SG Approach and +0.082 course-fit adjustment are both top-shelf for this field, and he's made the cut here in two of three tries (T32, T33). At +21639 with a 7.4% top-10 number, he's the most underpriced longshot on this board. Live ticket. |
+21639 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T33
2024T32
2023MC
Win+21639
Top 5+3027
Top 10+1258
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 1 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35 • PGA Championship (May 2026): MC • Truist Championship (May 2026): T24 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T49 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T60 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T21 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.08
Course History—
| |||
| 53 |
Ryan Fox
USA - OWGR #55
LONGSHOT
|
Three straight cuts made at this event (T19, T56, T43) plus a T8 at the Canadian Open is the steady U.S. Open profile you want from a longshot. The +0.30 SG Approach and balanced ball-striking line up, but the -0.033 course-fit adjustment is a yellow flag and the 0.43% model win number says the price is roughly fair. +23066 is a top-20 dart, not a win bet. |
+23066 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T19
2024T56
2023T43
Win+23066
Top 5+3390
Top 10+1392
Recent Form
RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T8 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T27 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T35 • Truist Championship (May 2026): 67 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T30 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T16 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): MC • Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
6.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 54 |
Dustin Johnson
USA - OWGR #245
LONGSHOT
|
Back-to-back missed cuts here in 2024 and 2025 from a two-time major champion is the story, and the OWGR has crashed to #245 for a reason. The +0.42 SG Putting is the only positive number on his card — approach is negative (-0.07) and he's played twice since March. At +23615 you're paying for the name, not the form. Hard fade. |
+23615 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023T10
Win+23615
Top 5+3432
Top 10+1407
Recent Form
PGA Championship (May 2026): T44 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T33
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
6.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 55 |
Brian Harman
USA - OWGR #59
LONGSHOT
|
The 0.08 course-fit adjustment is one of the largest positive marks in this entire field, which makes sense for a grinder who already owns an Open Championship. The +0.32 SG Approach and +0.14 around-the-green are exactly the skills that survive U.S. Open setups, even if the missing OTT data is a question mark. The MC at Memorial cools things slightly, but at +25110 with a 6.5% top-10, the place tickets carry value. |
+25110 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T59
2024T21
2023T43
Win+25110
Top 5+3431
Top 10+1434
Recent Form
The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T22 • PGA Championship (May 2026): T60 • Truist Championship (May 2026): T31 • Miami Championship (Apr 2026): T38 • RBC Heritage (Apr 2026): T25 • Masters Tournament (Apr 2026): T33 • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2026): T39
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
6.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.08
Course History+0.01
| |||
Daily Matchups coming soon.