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// BETTING PREVIEW - AUGUST 6-9
Wyndham Championship
August 6-9, 2026 | Greensboro, North Carolina
⛅ Tournament Weather Forecast
Expect partly cloudy skies with highs in the 83F range and light winds around 6 mph throughout the week. Some rain is possible, making for ideal scoring conditions.
🌬️ Wind by Day — Morning & Afternoon
| Day | 8 AM | 12 PM |
|---|---|---|
| Thu | ↑ 5 mph SW G13 | ↑ 8 mph SW G13 |
| Fri | ↑ 6 mph SW G15 | ↑ 9 mph SW G12 |
| Sat | ↑ 6 mph WSW G15 | ↑ 7 mph SW G7 |
| Sun | ↑ 5 mph WSW G10 | ↑ 7 mph W G10 |
🌊 Mornings play calmer (~6 vs ~8 mph) — a slight edge to AM-wave tee times.
🔒 Crew picks drop Wednesday night
Cameron Young returns to Sedgefield Country Club as the defending champion with the field's best SG Total (+1.97) and SG Approach (+0.80), commanding a 9.5% model win probability that towers over the rest of the field. Aaron Rai, the 2024 champion, profiles as perhaps the strongest course fit play in the entire field at +0.402, combining elite ball-striking (4th in SG Approach at +0.56) with back-to-back top-5 finishes at this venue. Further down the board, Mac Meissner (+6022) stands out as a compelling longshot with a 16.0% top-10 probability and +0.92 SG Total — a stronger model projection than several players priced well above him.
Young's Dominant Profile Justifies Favoritism
Cameron Young leads the field in SG Total (+1.97, nearly half a stroke clear of second-ranked Justin Thomas at +1.32) and SG Approach (+0.80). His 9.5% model win probability is nearly triple the next closest player, and his defending title at Sedgefield Country Club (1st in 2025, T22 in 2024) confirms he thrives on this layout.
Cameron Young
Rai's Course Fit Is Off the Charts
Aaron Rai's +0.402 course fit score is the highest in the entire field by a massive margin, and his Sedgefield Country Club history reads 1st (2024) and T5 (2025). The model gives him a 21.4% top-10 probability and 2.8% win probability, driven by his elite SG Approach (+0.56, 4th in field) matching perfectly with what this course demands.
Aaron Rai
Koivun's Projection Belies Limited History
Jackson Koivun sits second in the model at 3.9% win probability despite having only one start at Sedgefield Country Club (T5 in 2025). His +0.084 course fit is solid and his profile clearly impresses the model, but bettors should weigh the small sample of course history against the aggressive projection.
Jackson Koivun
Griffin Combines Putting With Course Pedigree
Ben Griffin ranks 4th in the field in SG Putting (+0.44) and owns the best course history adjustment among serious contenders at +0.075 strokes, built on finishes of T11 (2025) and T7 (2024) at Sedgefield Country Club. The model gives him a 22.3% top-10 probability and 3.1% win chance, making him one of the most well-rounded profiles in this tier.
Ben Griffin
Thomas Brings Elite Strokes Gained, Thin History
Justin Thomas ranks 2nd in the field in SG Total (+1.32) but has just one Sedgefield Country Club start (T12 in 2023) and a slightly negative course fit (-0.035). The model projects him at 2.7% to win and 19.9% for a top 10 — a profile powered almost entirely by raw ball-striking talent rather than course-specific advantages.
Justin Thomas
Meissner Leads Longshot Value Profiles
At +6022, Mac Meissner carries a 16.0% top-10 projection — the highest of any player priced +6000 or longer — and a +0.92 SG Total that ranks 11th in the field, better than five players priced shorter than him. The course record backs it up: a runner-up finish at Sedgefield in 2025 and a T12 in 2024 make him the model's top pick in the deep longshot tier.
Mac Meissner
McNealy's Putter Fuels Sleeper Profile
Maverick McNealy leads the entire field in SG Putting (+0.53) and carries a strong +1.17 SG Total, yet his -0.125 course fit and -0.030 course history adjustment introduce real concerns about his Sedgefield Country Club suitability. The model still projects him at 15.4% for a top 10 at +5410, a profile driven by flatstick dominance that could overcome fit concerns if his iron play holds up.
Maverick McNealy
Fitzpatrick: Under-the-Radar Ball-Striker
Alex Fitzpatrick ranks 3rd in the field in SG Approach (+0.67) with a +1.09 SG Total and positive course fit (+0.125). The model projects a 17.6% top-10 probability at +4669 — a strong mid-tier profile built on the approach-game prowess that Sedgefield Country Club historically rewards.
Alex Fitzpatrick
Bradley's All-Around Game Fits the Tier
Keegan Bradley at +5450 carries a 15.8% model top-10 probability with +0.98 SG Total, placing him as one of the strongest overall profiles in the 50/1-plus range. His well-rounded strokes gained profile lacks a glaring weakness, which suits a Sedgefield Country Club layout that doesn't overwhelmingly favor one skill.
Keegan Bradley
Simpson's History Can't Overcome Current Form
Webb Simpson owns the field's best course history adjustment (+0.204 strokes) at Sedgefield Country Club, but at +62400 the model projects just a fraction of a percent win probability. His current form simply cannot support the weight of past glory — a classic nostalgia trap for bettors at this venue.
Webb Simpson
📈 Biggest Climber · Sedgefield Country Club
Cameron Young
2023 T67 → 2024 T22 → 2025 1
▲66spots
🔥 Form Climbers · Last 3 Starts
Chris Kirk
Scottish Open T61 → 3M Open T31 → Rocket T8
▲53spots
Rico Hoey
Corales T67 → 3M Open T62 → Rocket T15
▲52spots
Michael Brennan
The Open T53 → 3M Open T24 → Rocket T15
▲38spots
Complete Betting Board
| # | Player | Why They Could Win | Win Odds GolfData API |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Cameron Young
USA - OWGR #3
CONTENDER
|
The defending champion returns to Sedgefield ranked OWGR #3 with a runner-up at The Open on his ledger and a +1.97 SG Total profile that leads this field. The model gives him a 9.54% win probability and a 39.9% top-10 shot, both of which line up with a guy who just lifted this trophy in 2025. Approach (+0.80) and driving (+0.77) are both green, and the +0.077 course history bump reflects what your eyes already know. Everything here points to a legitimate title defense. |
+948 |
Tournament History & Odds
20251
2024T22
2023T67
Win+948
Top 5+267
Top 10+151
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T8 • Corales Puntacana Championship (Jul 2026): T34 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): 2 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T47 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T46 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
9.5%
Top 10 Probability
39.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.09
Course History+0.08
| |||
| 2 |
Jackson Koivun
USA - OWGR #70
CONTENDER
|
A win at the 3M Open followed by a T10 at the ISCO Championship and a T5 here in his Sedgefield debut in 2025 — that's a young player whose model number (+2467 to win, 24.3% top 10) is built on genuine recent evidence, not projection. The +0.084 course fit adjustment is the strongest of any value-tier player here, and he already showed the finish translates. For a golfer without a full SG baseline, the results are speaking loudly enough. |
+2467 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T5
2024NA
2023NA
Win+2467
Top 5+595
Top 10+311
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T31 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): 1 • ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): T10 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.9%
Top 10 Probability
24.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.08
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 3 |
Hideki Matsuyama
JPN - OWGR #24
CONTENDER
|
Back-to-back top-5s at the Rocket Classic (T5) and 3M Open (T3) have Matsuyama's game clicking at exactly the right time. The +1.26 SG Total is built on the usual foundation — +0.55 approach, +0.41 around the green — and the model pegs him at 24.7% to crack the top 10. Course history is thin (T19 in 2025, MC in 2023) and the -0.042 history adjustment reflects that, but a former Masters champion arriving with this kind of form and a 76.0% cut probability is a legitimate top-5 threat at +591. |
+2722 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T19
2024NA
2023MC
Win+2722
Top 5+591
Top 10+305
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T5 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T3 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T14 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T65 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T43 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.5%
Top 10 Probability
24.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History-0.04
| |||
| 4 |
Ryan Gerard
USA - OWGR #25
CONTENDER
|
A solo 2nd at the Memorial and a T9 at The Open give Gerard the two best non-winning results on this page, and the +1.27 SG Total (with a balanced +0.44 approach / +0.39 putting split) says it wasn't a fluke. The Sedgefield history is ugly — two missed cuts in two tries — but the +0.070 course fit adjustment suggests the profile plays better here than the scorecards indicate. At 22.8% to make the top 10, the model is treating him like a real player, not a hot-week mirage. |
+2860 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023MC
Win+2860
Top 5+655
Top 10+339
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T8 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T9 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T26 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T44 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 2 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T10
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.4%
Top 10 Probability
22.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 5 |
Ben Griffin
USA - OWGR #20
CONTENDER
|
OWGR #20 with a course history line reading T11-T7 in his last two Sedgefield trips, and the +0.075 history adjustment backs the eye test. The full-board SG profile is what stands out: +0.41 approach, +0.44 putting, +0.33 around the green — no weakness. A missed cut at the Rocket Classic is the blemish, but a T10 at Travelers, T17 at the U.S. Open, and solo T3 at Colonial say the underlying game is intact. The model's 22.3% top-10 number fits a guy who just keeps showing up here. |
+3100 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T11
2024T7
2023MC
Win+3100
Top 5+687
Top 10+348
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T59 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T21 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T10 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T17 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.1%
Top 10 Probability
22.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History+0.07
| |||
| 6 |
Aaron Rai
ENG - OWGR #19
CONTENDER
|
The 2024 champion returns with the highest course fit adjustment on this entire page at +0.402 — the model absolutely loves what his precision profile does at Sedgefield, and the T5 in 2025 confirmed the win wasn't a one-off. The concern is form: back-to-back missed cuts at The Open and Scottish are real, and the SG putting sits at -0.08. But +0.56 approach and 21.4% to top-10 make the case that when he gets back on a course this comfortable, the ceiling is a second trophy. |
+3469 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T5
20241
2023MC
Win+3469
Top 5+732
Top 10+367
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T11 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T19
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.8%
Top 10 Probability
21.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.40
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 7 |
Justin Thomas
USA - OWGR #22
CONTENDER
|
The +1.32 SG Total is the second-highest number in this group and it's built like a Sedgefield winner's card — +0.39 approach, +0.43 around the green, +0.29 putting. He hasn't been here since a T12 in 2023 and the -0.035 course fit adjustment is a small drag, but a T14 at Travelers and T17 at the U.S. Open show the game is close. Model gives him a 19.9% top-10 shot; the two-time major winner label doesn't hurt when this many boxes are checked. |
+3624 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023T12
Win+3624
Top 5+776
Top 10+404
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T65 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T50 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T17 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T19 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.7%
Top 10 Probability
19.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 8 |
Doug Ghim
USA - OWGR #155
CONTENDER
|
OWGR #155 arriving with a T6 at the John Deere and a T15 at the Rocket Classic — Ghim is playing the best golf of anyone in this price range that nobody's talking about. The +0.108 course fit adjustment is one of the largest in the field, and a +0.56 SG off-the-tee number fits a course that rewards positioning. History (MC, T41, T51) is unimpressive, but the 18.4% top-10 model number and 71.4% cut probability say the profile is finally catching up to the venue. |
+4134 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T41
2023T51
Win+4134
Top 5+880
Top 10+443
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T15 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T6 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T15 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T28 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T31
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.4%
Top 10 Probability
18.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.11
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 9 |
Harris English
USA - OWGR #36
CONTENDER
|
OWGR #36 is the highest-ranked player in this VALUE cluster, and the profile is a putting-and-short-game build — +0.32 on the greens, +0.19 around them, and a +0.84 SG Total that doesn't rely on ballstriking fireworks. The recent form is genuinely ugly though: MC-MC bracketing a T71 at the Rocket Classic, and the lone Sedgefield trip was a T33 in 2023. Model gives him 19.1% to crack the top 10 at +423, which is where the profile fits best — the win equity at +4388 is thinner than the ranking suggests. |
+4388 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023T33
Win+4388
Top 5+876
Top 10+423
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T71 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T38 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T17
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.2%
Top 10 Probability
19.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.09
| |||
| 10 |
Tom Kim
KOR - OWGR #33
CONTENDER
|
He already has a win in this stretch — the Genesis Scottish Open — plus a solo 3rd at the U.S. Open, and the +0.71 SG Approach is the loudest number on this entire page. Add a +0.118 course fit adjustment and the model lands him at 18.2% for a top-10 and 2.14% to win outright. The catch is a WD in his only Sedgefield appearance in 2025, so course history is a blank page. The iron play alone justifies the +451 top-10 number. |
+4569 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025WD
2024NA
2023NA
Win+4569
Top 5+894
Top 10+451
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): T20 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): 1 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T46 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): 3 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T15 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T54 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T54
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.1%
Top 10 Probability
18.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.12
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 11 |
Alex Fitzpatrick
ENG - OWGR #68
CONTENDER
|
One Sedgefield start on record and it was a T8 in 2025, which pairs nicely with a +0.125 course fit adjustment — the highest fit number in this batch. The ballstriking is legit too: +0.43 off the tee and +0.67 approach, with a T7 at Travelers and T6 at Memorial anchoring the recent form. The putter (-0.11) is the only thing standing between him and a real ceiling week. Model has him at 17.6% for top 10 and +943 for a top 5. |
+4669 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T8
2024NA
2023NA
Win+4669
Top 5+943
Top 10+469
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T71 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T7 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T20 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.1%
Top 10 Probability
17.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.12
Course History—
| |||
| 12 |
Sungjae Im
KOR - OWGR #75
CONTENDER
|
Three Sedgefield starts, three made cuts — T14 in 2023, T41 in 2024, T27 in 2025 — and a +0.074 course history adjustment to back it up. The skill set is short-game driven (+0.37 ARG, +0.27 putting) with a shaky iron number at -0.13, which is a real concern on a course that rewards precision. A T14 at The Open and T15 at the Rocket Classic show the game is in decent shape. The +491 top-10 price fits the 16.9% projection cleanly. |
+4814 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T27
2024T41
2023T14
Win+4814
Top 5+993
Top 10+491
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T15 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T14 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T71 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T32 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T9
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.0%
Top 10 Probability
16.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History+0.07
| |||
| 13 |
Maverick McNealy
USA - OWGR #44
VALUE
|
The +1.17 SG Total is the top number in this group and the putter (+0.53) is elite, but the course fit adjustment is a red flag at -0.125 — the model does not think Sedgefield rewards his profile. The lone start here was a T45 in 2024, and recent form outside of a T10 at Memorial has been middling (T34, MC, T55, T32). Model gives him 15.4% for a top 10 at +550, which feels like the ceiling of what to chase — the win equity is thinner than his raw talent suggests. |
+5410 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T45
2023NA
Win+5410
Top 5+1107
Top 10+550
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): T34 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T55 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T32 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T10
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
15.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.12
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 14 |
Keegan Bradley
USA - OWGR #45
VALUE
|
Ryder Cup captain, OWGR #45, and the irons are humming at +0.50 SG Approach — but the course fit (-0.079) and history (MC in 2025, T22 in 2024) don't paint a Sedgefield picture. Recent form is steady without a spike: T14 Travelers, T15 Rocket, T19 Memorial, T26 John Deere. The model lands him at 15.8% for a top 10, and the +535 number is the fair reflection of a solid-but-unspectacular fit. Hard to talk yourself into the +5450 win price. |
+5450 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T22
2023NA
Win+5450
Top 5+1091
Top 10+535
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T15 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T74 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T26 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T32 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T19 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
15.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.08
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 15 |
Jordan Smith
ENG - OWGR #76
VALUE
|
No Sedgefield history to lean on, but the +0.126 course fit adjustment is the strongest in this batch and the tee-to-green profile checks out: +0.59 off the tee, +0.43 approach. A T18 at The Open Championship and T13 at Colonial are the highlights of a form line that's more solid than spectacular. The short game is the leak (-0.17 around the green), which matters on a course that demands scrambling. Model has him at 14.8% for top 10, and +1162 for a top 5 is where the fit story pays off if it pays at all. |
+5669 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+5669
Top 5+1162
Top 10+574
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T31 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T39 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T18 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T21 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T13 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T59
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.7%
Top 10 Probability
14.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.13
Course History—
| |||
| 16 |
Davis Thompson
USA - OWGR #123
VALUE
|
Three Sedgefield trips, three top-25s — T22, T12, T11 — and the trajectory is trending the right way, backed by a +0.042 course history adjustment. The recent form is quietly excellent too: T8 at the Rocket Classic and T7 at the 3M Open on back-to-back starts. OWGR #123 is misleading given a +0.82 SG Total and +0.42 approach. Model gives him 15.5% for a top 10 at +547, and the course-history-plus-current-form combination is the cleanest longshot case on this page. |
+5697 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T11
2024T12
2023T22
Win+5697
Top 5+1114
Top 10+547
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T8 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T7 • ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T26 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T45 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.7%
Top 10 Probability
15.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 17 |
Mac Meissner
USA - OWGR #85
VALUE
|
A runner-up finish at Sedgefield in 2025 is the headline here, and it's backed by a T12 in 2024 — this kid just gets this golf course. The full-bag profile is balanced with a +0.35 putter and +0.29 irons, and a T6 at the John Deere and T3 at Colonial show he can go low on tree-lined tracks. The model gives him 16% to crack the top 10 at +526, which is the market that best fits a course-horse longshot without elite ceiling. |
+6022 |
Tournament History & Odds
20252
2024T12
2023NA
Win+6022
Top 5+1094
Top 10+526
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T26 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T30 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T6 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T44 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T46 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T3 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T31
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
16.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.07
| |||
| 18 |
Bud Cauley
USA - OWGR #42
VALUE
|
Winner at the RBC Canadian Open in June and followed it up with a T18 at The Open — this is a legit resurgence for the OWGR #42. The irons are the engine at +0.44 SG Approach, and the model has him at 14.3% to make the top 10. The Sedgefield history is ugly (two straight MCs), which caps the ceiling, but the +598 top-10 number captures a player whose overall game is genuinely trending toward contention. |
+6098 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023NA
Win+6098
Top 5+1206
Top 10+598
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T18 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T56 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): 1 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T22
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
14.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 19 |
Ben Kohles
USA - OWGR #108
VALUE
|
The +0.398 course fit adjustment is the standout number in this batch — Sedgefield sets up beautifully for his profile even though the two prior starts here were both missed cuts. Recent form is loud: T3 at the John Deere, 9th at the 3M Open, T15 at ISCO, all cashed. The +0.48 SG Approach carries the bag with a cold putter (-0.12) as the drag, and the model gives him 15.2% to hit the top 10. |
+6124 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023NA
Win+6124
Top 5+1179
Top 10+559
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T26 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): 9 • ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): T15 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T3 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T29 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
15.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.40
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 20 |
Ryo Hisatsune
JPN - OWGR #66
VALUE
|
A T3 here in 2024 proves the course fits, and the tee-to-green profile — +0.45 OTT, +0.45 approach — reads like a Sedgefield archetype. A T9 at the John Deere is the most recent sign of life, though the putter (-0.11) and short game (-0.02) remain the ceiling-cappers. The model prices him at 14.3% for a top-10 finish at +597, which is the reasonable market given the flatstick concerns. |
+6429 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T3
2023NA
Win+6429
Top 5+1232
Top 10+597
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T50 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T53 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T9 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T38 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 52 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): 66 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
14.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.08
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 21 |
Brian Harman
USA - OWGR #60
VALUE
|
A T3 at the 3M Open is the most recent data point and it's a real one — the short lefty grinder profile shows up when the setup demands precision over power. The +0.177 course fit adjustment is legit, though the lone Sedgefield look (T45 in 2024) doesn't scream course horse. With a balanced +0.35 approach and +0.18 putter, the model gives him 13% to hit the top 10 — a reasonable target for a player whose ceiling is 'grind out a top-15.' |
+7438 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T45
2023NA
Win+7438
Top 5+1415
Top 10+670
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): T3 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T36 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T25 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T32 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T22
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
13.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.18
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 22 |
J.T. Poston
USA - OWGR #35
VALUE
|
Winner of the Memorial in June and a T4 at the U.S. Open — this is a player operating at a level well above his +8435 win price would normally suggest. Sedgefield history is mixed (T7 in 2023, T11 in 2025, MC in 2024) but the +0.16 course fit and +0.055 history adjustments both nod in the right direction. The SG profile is thinner than the resume (only +0.14 approach), which is why the model still slots him at just 12% to hit the top 10. |
+8435 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T11
2024MC
2023T7
Win+8435
Top 5+1549
Top 10+736
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T51 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 69 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T4 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 1 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
12.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.16
Course History+0.06
| |||
| 23 |
Alex Smalley
USA - OWGR #46
VALUE
|
Three Sedgefield starts, three missed cuts — that's the elephant in the room, and no amount of underlying data fully explains it away. But the profile is intriguing: a T3 at Colonial in May, +0.74 SG Total, and +0.34 irons paired with a +0.26 putter. The model gives him 11.8% to hit the top 10 at +751, though the 0-for-3 course history is a genuine reason to lean toward the top-20 or make-cut markets instead. |
+8789 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023MC
Win+8789
Top 5+1578
Top 10+751
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T53 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T47 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
11.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 24 |
Keith Mitchell
USA - OWGR #72
VALUE
|
The +0.53 SG Off-the-Tee is the top mark in this batch and the ball-striking package (+0.39 approach) is genuinely tour-quality. The problem is a -0.121 course fit adjustment and a putter running at -0.09 — Sedgefield rewards feel and touch, not bomb-and-gouge. A T4 at the U.S. Open shows the ceiling exists, but the model's 11.3% top-10 read (+785) properly discounts a profile that doesn't quite match this venue. |
+8802 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T12
2023NA
Win+8802
Top 5+1637
Top 10+785
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): T44 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T51 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T22 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T4 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T29 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 5
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
11.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.12
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 25 |
Ben James
USA - OWGR #353
VALUE
|
An amateur with a Corales Puntacana T4 already on the résumé is a genuinely interesting Sedgefield debut — the college star has nothing to lose and the model gives him an 11.2% top-10 shot at +795. The T15 at ISCO and T23 at the U.S. Open show he's not intimidated by pro fields. Without SG data to lean on, the win path is thin at +8815, but the 21.4% top-20 number is where the interest actually lives. |
+8815 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+8815
Top 5+1676
Top 10+795
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T38 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): MC • Corales Puntacana Championship (Jul 2026): T4 • ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): T15 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T62 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T54
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
11.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History—
| |||
| 26 |
Matt Wallace
ENG - OWGR #62
VALUE
|
Three Sedgefield starts have produced T27-T28-T45 — steady but never contending, which is basically the story of his +9032 number. The T5 at the Rocket Classic is the freshest evidence the game is trending, and the +0.41 approach with +0.22 around-the-green work fits a course that punishes wayward second shots. The 64.4% make-cut is the sturdiest projection here; the 12% top-10 at +732 is the market that best matches the profile. |
+9032 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T27
2024T28
2023T45
Win+9032
Top 5+1582
Top 10+732
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T5 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T40 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T33 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
12.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.00
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 27 |
Alex Noren
SWE - OWGR #27
VALUE
|
A T3 here in 2025 is the only Sedgefield result that matters, and it's backed by a +0.192 course-fit adjustment — the largest positive in this batch. The +0.38 putting is real and the T18 at the Open Championship shows the game travels. World No. 27 at +9088 to win is a thin path, but the 11.5% top-10 at +771 is where the course history and fit actually cash in. |
+9088 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T3
2024NA
2023T38
Win+9088
Top 5+1686
Top 10+771
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T18 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T55 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 9
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
11.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.19
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 28 |
Nick Taylor
CAN - OWGR #73
VALUE
|
Two Sedgefield missed cuts on the ledger is a red flag the +0.025 history adjustment barely acknowledges, and the -0.20 off-the-tee is a genuine concern on a course where positioning matters. The +0.40 putting keeps him relevant and the T25 at Travelers is the one recent bright spot in an otherwise flat stretch. At +9515 to win with a 63.9% make-cut projection, the model sees a grinder, not a contender. |
+9515 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023MC
Win+9515
Top 5+1704
Top 10+783
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T61 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T59 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T26 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T25 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T65 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T43
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
11.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.13
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 29 |
Jordan Spieth
USA - OWGR #57
VALUE
|
The name still moves markets but the -0.094 course fit is the worst in this batch and Sedgefield has produced a T31 and an MC in two tries. The ball-striking is actually solid — +0.24 off-the-tee, +0.24 approach — but the short game numbers (+0.06 around-green, +0.06 putting) are a shadow of peak Spieth. At +9736 the model is pricing the tools, not the outcome; the 21.2% top-20 is the range where he lives now. |
+9736 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T31
2024MC
2023NA
Win+9736
Top 5+1744
Top 10+817
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T31 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T58 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T66 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T56 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
10.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.09
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 30 |
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
DEN - OWGR #80
VALUE
|
A T9 at the Open Championship is the headline and it's a legitimate one — the Dane can play. The +0.61 off-the-tee leads this batch and the +0.14 approach rounds out a ball-striking profile that should travel to any course. Sedgefield debut is a real unknown at +9817, but the 11% top-10 at +812 reflects a model that trusts the underlying game more than the lack of history. |
+9817 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9817
Top 5+1728
Top 10+812
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): MC • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T20 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T9 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T36 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): 39 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T42 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T19
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
11.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.08
Course History—
| |||
| 31 |
Blades Brown
USA - OWGR #94
VALUE
|
The 18-year-old has three starts on the recent ledger and all three are top-20s — T14 at Byron Nelson, T12 at John Deere, T11 at Puntacana. That's a genuinely encouraging small sample for a teenager, though without SG data the model is working blind on the underlying skills. At +9917 with a 20.8% top-20 projection, the interest is in the finishing-position markets, not the outright. |
+9917 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9917
Top 5+1808
Top 10+854
Recent Form
Corales Puntacana Championship (Jul 2026): T11 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T12 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T14
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
10.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History—
| |||
| 32 |
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
RSA - OWGR #98
VALUE
|
Sedgefield history reads T62-T22-T51 but the +0.171 course-fit adjustment sees a profile that should work better than that — +0.31 approach and +0.31 putting are the kind of numbers that translate on a shorter, positional layout. The T12 at John Deere is the most recent evidence the game is sharpening. Model gives him a 64.5% make-cut (highest in this batch) and 11.3% top-10 at +788; the outright at +10299 is a stretch. |
+10299 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T62
2024T22
2023T51
Win+10299
Top 5+1710
Top 10+788
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T45 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T20 • Corales Puntacana Championship (Jul 2026): T69 • ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): T21 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T12 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T54 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T32 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
11.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.17
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 33 |
Emiliano Grillo
ARG - OWGR #99
VALUE
|
A T7 at the 3M Open anchors a stretch of five straight made cuts, and the +0.244 course-fit adjustment is the strongest number in this longshot group — Sedgefield rewards the shot-shaping and iron control (+0.24 SG Approach) that has always been Grillo's calling card. Two prior starts here produced only T44 and T59, which is why the model still lands at +10335 to win and +820 to crack the top 10. The 10.9% top-10 number is the market worth targeting. |
+10335 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T44
2024T59
2023NA
Win+10335
Top 5+1781
Top 10+820
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T31 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T7 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T26 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T20 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T42 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T38
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
10.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.24
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 34 |
Eric Cole
USA - OWGR #74
VALUE
|
Sedgefield fits the profile — T7 in 2024 and T14 in 2023 confirm it — and the +0.48 SG Putting and +0.29 around-the-green marks are the two best in this batch. The problem is a missed cut at the Rocket Classic and a WD at the Canadian sitting next to that runner-up at Colonial, which is exactly the kind of volatility that produces a +10770 win price. His 10.0% top-10 projection is where the model actually likes him. |
+10770 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T74
2024T7
2023T14
Win+10770
Top 5+1869
Top 10+896
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T53 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): 70 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T39 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T38 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 8 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): 2 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T31
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
10.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.11
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 35 |
Michael Kim
USA - OWGR #51
VALUE
|
Back-to-back top-10s at the Rocket Classic (T8) and 3M Open (T10) put Kim on the radar, and the +0.25 SG Approach and +0.34 putter are legitimately strong. The Sedgefield history is ugly though — T62 in 2025, a WD in 2024, and the -0.070 course-history adjustment is the worst of anyone here. That's why the model prices him at +10809 despite World Ranking of #51, and it's why the top-20 number (20.2%) reads better than any outright. |
+10809 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T62
2024WD
2023T5
Win+10809
Top 5+1905
Top 10+894
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T8 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T10 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T49 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T17
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
10.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History-0.07
| |||
| 36 |
Brooks Koepka
USA - OWGR #114
VALUE
|
The name still carries weight but the profile underneath it does not — no prior starts at Sedgefield, a -0.128 course-fit adjustment, and a recent ledger of MC-WD-MC-T28 with only a T14 at Byron Nelson to point to. The +0.34 SG Approach and +0.31 off-the-tee are real, which is why the model still gives him 8.7% to crack the top 10, but at +11734 to win with zero course history and a putter running -0.08, this is a pass at every market. |
+11734 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+11734
Top 5+2236
Top 10+1052
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T28 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): WD • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T14
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
8.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.13
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 37 |
Chris Kirk
USA - OWGR #105
VALUE
|
The T5 at Sedgefield in 2025 is the reason to look, and the +0.46 SG Approach — the best iron number in this group — is the reason to keep looking. The counterweight is a -0.30 putter and a form line littered with missed cuts at the U.S. Open, Canadian, Colonial and Byron Nelson before recent T8-T31 finishes stabilized things. The model lands at +11948 to win and 10.0% to top-10; the iron play travels, the flatstick is the roadblock. |
+11948 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T5
2024NA
2023MC
Win+11948
Top 5+1985
Top 10+905
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T8 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T31 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T61 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T31
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
10.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 38 |
Michael Brennan
USA - OWGR #58
VALUE
|
Debut start at Sedgefield and the -0.214 course-fit adjustment is the worst number attached to any player in this write-up, which is a rough combination for a course that rewards feel and short game (Brennan is at -0.22 around the greens). The T6 at Colonial and OWGR #58 explain why he's even in the conversation, and the +0.57 off-the-tee is legitimately elite, but +13174 to win with no history and a negative fit read is not the market. The 17.6% top-20 is the only defensible ticket. |
+13174 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+13174
Top 5+2221
Top 10+1038
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T15 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T24 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T53 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T52 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T33 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T6 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
8.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.21
Course History—
| |||
| 39 |
Jackson Suber
USA - OWGR #109
VALUE
|
A solo 4th at the Byron Nelson, a T4 at the Canadian, and a T6 at the John Deere is a genuinely strong three-event peak, and the +0.32 SG Approach travels to a Sedgefield setup that rewards mid-iron precision. The 2025 missed cut here is the check on the enthusiasm, and the model prices him at +13263 with an 8.4% top-10 shot. The upside is real; the floor is why the price is what it is. |
+13263 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+13263
Top 5+2362
Top 10+1084
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T50 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T28 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T6 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T4 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T67 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 4
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
8.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 40 |
Ricky Castillo
USA - OWGR #96
VALUE
|
The one prior start here was a T23 in 2025, which is a fine floor, and the recent form (T20-T44-T44-T45-T42) is remarkably consistent without a single top-10 to point to. Putting (+0.20) and off-the-tee (+0.21) are the strengths, but the -0.02 SG Approach is a problem at a course where the winner usually gains three-plus strokes with the irons. Model has him at 8.7% to top-10 and 59.3% to make the cut — the make-cut side is where the profile actually lives. |
+13505 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T23
2024NA
2023NA
Win+13505
Top 5+2280
Top 10+1043
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T20 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T44 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T44 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T45 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T42
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 41 |
Matt McCarty
USA - OWGR #69
VALUE
|
The T8 here in 2025 is the entire reason to squint at this profile, because the recent form is genuinely rough — five missed cuts in his last seven, including the Open Championship, the Scottish, the U.S. Open, and Memorial. The +0.24 putter and +0.21 irons are fine, and the +0.092 course fit says Sedgefield helps, but at +13567 to win with a 0.73% model probability, the top-10 market (+1042, 8.8%) is where the profile actually lives. |
+13567 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T8
2024NA
2023NA
Win+13567
Top 5+2351
Top 10+1042
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T50 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T60
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.09
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 42 |
Andrew Novak
USA - OWGR #78
VALUE
|
Ball-striking is doing all the work here: +0.24 off the tee and +0.37 approach are legitimate PGA Tour numbers, but the -0.35 putter is dragging the whole thing down and the recent form (MC-MC-T61-MC-T30-MC-MC) is a wreck. Sedgefield history is unremarkable (T33, T52, MC) and the course-fit adjustment is essentially zero at +0.002. The model's 8.5% top-10 number at +1078 is the only realistic angle — a win at +13567 with the flat-stick this cold is a lot to ask. |
+13567 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T52
2023T33
Win+13567
Top 5+2364
Top 10+1078
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T61 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T54
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 43 |
Nico Echavarria
COL - OWGR #59
LONGSHOT
|
Three straight made cuts at Sedgefield (T19, T22, MC in 2023) plus the field's second-best course-fit adjustment at +0.097 is the pitch, and it's a real one even with modest baseline numbers (+0.19 SG Total, +0.12 irons). A T6 at Colonial in May is the only recent result with any juice — everything since has been T30-to-MC filler. Model gives him 7.9% to crack the top 10 at +1167, which is the sensible market for a course-horse longshot without a signature skill. |
+15090 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T19
2024T22
2023MC
Win+15090
Top 5+2609
Top 10+1167
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T67 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T36 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T56 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T40 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
7.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History+0.05
| |||
| 44 |
Marco Penge
ENG - OWGR #52
LONGSHOT
|
Bomber profile walking into a course that historically punishes bombers — the +0.65 SG off the tee is the best number in this group, but Sedgefield's -0.307 course-fit adjustment is the ugliest in the entire write-up and there's zero history here to lean on. The T18 at the Open Championship shows the ceiling is real on a big stage, but at +15607 with a 0.64% win number, the model is essentially saying the fit override is doing all the pricing work. Hard pass on the win market; the 7.3% top-10 at +1268 is at least defensible. |
+15607 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+15607
Top 5+2712
Top 10+1268
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T45 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T18 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.31
Course History—
| |||
| 45 |
Max McGreevy
USA - OWGR #111
LONGSHOT
|
The +0.207 course-fit adjustment is the second-strongest in this batch and pairs cleanly with a +0.25 SG Approach — Sedgefield rewards exactly the profile McGreevy is bringing. Problem is the baseline is thin (OWGR 111, +0.16 SG Total) and he's missed the cut in three of his last four, including the Rocket and 3M. The T11 at Puntacana is the lone bright spot. Model's 8.3% top-10 at +1108 and 58.8% make-cut are the only markets that make sense at this OWGR. |
+15648 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T34
2024NA
2023T51
Win+15648
Top 5+2487
Top 10+1108
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): MC • 3M Open (Jul 2026): MC • Corales Puntacana Championship (Jul 2026): T11 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T51 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T32 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T51 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.21
Course History+0.07
| |||
| 46 |
Beau Hossler
USA - OWGR #165
LONGSHOT
|
Two straight top-15s at Sedgefield (T15 in 2025, T12 in 2024) is the calling card, and short game + putter (+0.21 ARG, +0.23 putting) travel well to this course. But the -0.15 SG Approach is a real problem on a track that demands wedges, the course-fit adjustment is a flat -0.03, and OWGR 165 tells you where the baseline actually sits. Recent form is a string of T21-T39-T42-T45-type finishes with no top-20 in months. Top-10 at +1195 (7.7%) is the ceiling bet; the win price is a lottery ticket. |
+15815 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T15
2024T12
2023MC
Win+15815
Top 5+2662
Top 10+1195
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T45 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): 56 • Corales Puntacana Championship (Jul 2026): T42 • ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): T21 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T39 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T45 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 47 |
Kristoffer Ventura
NOR - OWGR #192
LONGSHOT
|
A T5 at the Rocket Classic and a T5 at the ISCO Championship in his last five starts is a genuine sign of life for a player ranked 192nd in the world, and the +0.37 off the tee is a real weapon. But the one Sedgefield sample is a missed cut, the course-fit adjustment reads -0.069, and the irons (-0.05) and short game (-0.13) don't support a win path on a precision course. At +15986 with a 0.62% model win rate, the top-10 at +1270 or the 54.6% make-cut are the only honest angles. |
+15986 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+15986
Top 5+2753
Top 10+1270
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T5 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T51 • Corales Puntacana Championship (Jul 2026): T15 • ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): T5 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 48 |
Denny McCarthy
USA - OWGR #92
LONGSHOT
|
Elite putter, full stop — the +0.53 SG Putting is the best flat-stick number in this write-up by a mile, and it's paired with a +0.091 course-history bump built on a T11 here in 2025. The T3 at the 3M Open shows the ceiling when the irons cooperate, but the -0.39 off the tee is a genuine liability and he's bracketed that 3M finish with missed cuts at the Rocket and John Deere. Model's 8.7% top-10 at +1045 and 60.3% make-cut are where a putter-dependent profile like this actually cashes. |
+16567 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T11
2024T33
2023MC
Win+16567
Top 5+2390
Top 10+1045
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): MC • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T3 • ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): T39 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T60 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T34
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History+0.09
| |||
| 49 |
Andrew Putnam
USA - OWGR #101
LONGSHOT
|
Short-game specialist walking into a course that theoretically suits him — the +0.29 SG Around Green and +0.30 SG Putting are legit strengths, and the +0.39 course-fit adjustment is the strongest number in this batch. Problem is, two straight missed cuts at Sedgefield (2025, 2024) and back-to-back MCs at the Rocket and 3M Open tell a different story. The model gives him an 8% top-10 shot at +1152, which is the best angle here — a win at +16707 is a stretch given the -0.65 OTT anchor. |
+16707 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023T27
Win+16707
Top 5+2646
Top 10+1152
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): MC • 3M Open (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T52 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T51 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T65 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T17
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.39
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 50 |
Zac Blair
USA - OWGR #143
LONGSHOT
|
Four straight made cuts with real teeth: T50 at the Rocket, T13 at the 3M Open, T8 at the ISCO, and T9 at the John Deere. Pair that with the field-friendly +0.356 course-fit adjustment and +0.31 SG Approach, and there's a real profile forming here despite the OWGR #143. The Sedgefield history is ugly (MC-T45-MC), which is why the course-history adjustment sits at -0.065, but the model's 8.5% top-10 number at +1076 reflects the iron play and current form, not the past. |
+16945 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T45
2023MC
Win+16945
Top 5+2512
Top 10+1076
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T50 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T13 • ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): T8 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T9 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T32 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): 69
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.36
Course History-0.07
| |||
| 51 |
Lee Hodges
USA - OWGR #130
LONGSHOT
|
A T3 at the John Deere is the headline, but the surrounding form is a mess — MC at the Rocket, MC at the ISCO, MC at Canadian, MC at Byron Nelson. Sedgefield hasn't been kind either (T55 in 2025, MC in 2024), and the +0.09 SG Approach is thin for a course that rewards iron precision. The +0.203 course-fit adjustment is the one thing holding this profile up; the model's 7.8% top-10 shot at +1178 is the most defensible market. |
+17393 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T55
2024MC
2023NA
Win+17393
Top 5+2638
Top 10+1178
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): MC • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T20 • ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T3 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.20
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 52 |
Sahith Theegala
USA - OWGR #82
LONGSHOT
|
Best raw talent in this write-up by a wide margin — the +0.56 SG Total and +0.34 SG Approach are elite numbers, and the OWGR #82 undersells where his ceiling actually is. The catch is Sedgefield: MC in his only prior start and a -0.109 course-fit adjustment that says the venue doesn't reward his shot shape. A T11 at the U.S. Open shows the game is close, but three straight finishes outside the top 50 since is why the model lands at +17599 to win despite the skill profile. |
+17599 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+17599
Top 5+3048
Top 10+1379
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T53 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T66 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T51 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T11 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T45 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T32 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T60
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
6.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.11
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 53 |
Kevin Yu
TPE - OWGR #126
LONGSHOT
|
Ball-striker profile with the +0.28 SG off the tee and +0.16 SG Approach doing the heavy lifting, and he's quietly stacked five straight made cuts (T31, T16, T24, MC, T15). The Sedgefield resume is the anchor — three straight missed cuts from 2023-2025 — which is exactly why the course-history adjustment sits at -0.055 and the course-fit at -0.082. Model gives him a 15.4% top-20 chance; the win price at +17651 is essentially dead money. |
+17651 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023MC
Win+17651
Top 5+2847
Top 10+1294
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T31 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T16 • Corales Puntacana Championship (Jul 2026): T24 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T15 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T29 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.08
Course History-0.06
| |||
| 54 |
Johnny Keefer
USA - OWGR #65
LONGSHOT
|
A solo T3 at the Genesis Scottish Open and a T9 at the Byron Nelson are the two data points that matter — this is a legit ball-striker with +0.43 SG off the tee and +0.24 SG Approach who ranks OWGR #65 for a reason. Sedgefield debut is the wild card, and the -0.117 course-fit adjustment is the worst in this batch, suggesting the model isn't sold on the venue match. The 6.9% top-10 projection at +1348 is the cleanest way to price the skill vs. the fit concern. |
+17972 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+17972
Top 5+2926
Top 10+1348
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): 60 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T59 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T3 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T39 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T51 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): T9
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
6.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.12
Course History—
| |||
| 55 |
Kevin Roy
USA - OWGR #118
LONGSHOT
|
Skill profile is thin — a -0.04 SG Approach on an approach-heavy venue is a real problem, and the Sedgefield resume (MC in 2025, MC in 2023) backs up the concern. The T11 at the Genesis Scottish is the only recent finish that catches the eye; everything else is a T26 or worse over the last two months. At +18709 to win with a 6.5% top-10 shot, the model is essentially saying this is a make-cut lottery ticket at 54.1% and not much more. |
+18709 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023MC
Win+18709
Top 5+3273
Top 10+1449
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T26 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T31 • Corales Puntacana Championship (Jul 2026): T62 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T11 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T71 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T74 • The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
6.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.00
Course History-0.01
| |||