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// BETTING PREVIEW - APRIL 2-5

Valero Texas Open

April 2-5, 2026 | San Antonio, Texas
COSMOS Golf
TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)
⛅ Tournament Weather Forecast Expect sunny skies with highs in the 73°F range and light winds around 5 mph throughout the week. No rain is forecast, making for ideal scoring conditions.
Miller
Miller
  • Win:Robert MacIntyre+2536
  • Top 5:Sepp Straka+940
  • Top 10:J.J. Spaun+526
Kevin
Kevin
  • Win:Hideki Matsuyama+2859
  • Top 5:Jordan Spieth+611
  • Top 10:Tommy Fleetwood+280
Andrew
Andrew
  • Win:Tommy Fleetwood+2428
  • Top 5:Tony Finau+1790
  • Top 10:Michael Thorbjornsen+502
Kcon
Kcon
  • Win:Tommy Fleetwood+2428
  • Top 5:Denny McCarthy+1298
  • Top 10:Ryo Hisatsune+638
Parbeh
Parbeh
  • Win:Ludvig Aberg+2104
  • Top 5:Sepp Straka+940
  • Top 10:Si Woo Kim+301
This week's Valero Texas Open presents exceptional value at the top of the board, with Tommy Fleetwood (+2428) leading the field in SG Total at +1.72 while offering 4.0% model win probability against favorable odds. Ludvig Aberg (+2104) represents the strongest betting edge at 4.5% model win rate despite recent missed cuts, backed by elite +1.61 SG Total metrics. The longshot tier offers compelling options with J.J. Spaun (+5219) ranking 4th in approach play (+0.65 SG) and carrying 16.0% top-10 probability at generous odds.
Fleetwood Offers Premium Value Play
Tommy Fleetwood leads the field in SG Total (+1.72) and ranks 3rd in approach play (+0.66), yet offers 4.0% model win probability at +2428 odds with solid T7 course history.
Tommy Fleetwood
Aberg's Metrics Override Recent Struggles
Despite consecutive missed cuts, Ludvig Aberg ranks 3rd in SG Total (+1.61) and offers the highest model win probability (4.5%) with a strong T14 finish here in 2024.
Ludvig Aberg
MacIntyre's Putting Edge Stands Out
Robert MacIntyre leads the field in putting (+0.64 SG) with positive course fit (+0.040) and 3.8% model win probability, making him a strong play at +2536.
Robert MacIntyre
Morikawa's Course Fit Concern
Despite ranking 2nd in SG Total (+1.69) and leading approach play (+0.95), Collin Morikawa's severe course fit penalty (-0.178) and T75 history suggest caution at +3172.
Collin Morikawa
Spaun Provides Elite Longshot Value
J.J. Spaun ranks 4th in approach play (+0.65 SG) with 16.0% top-10 probability, offering exceptional value at +5219 odds in the longshot tier.
J.J. Spaun
Matsuyama's Course Fit Advantage
Hideki Matsuyama combines strong overall metrics (+1.34 SG Total) with the best course fit (+0.096) among favorites, despite recent MC disappointment.
Hideki Matsuyama
Si Woo Kim Overvalued at Favorite
Si Woo Kim offers just 0.7% model win probability with mediocre +0.16 SG Total, making his +2560 favorite status questionable despite positive course fit.
Si Woo Kim
McNealy's Recent Form Momentum
Maverick McNealy brings a T3 finish in 2025 with solid +1.33 SG Total and 3.1% model win probability, offering good value at +3157 odds.
Maverick McNealy
Noren Combines Skills and Value
Alex Noren ranks 3rd in putting (+0.44) with +0.99 SG Total and 16.3% top-10 probability, presenting strong longshot appeal at +5534 odds.
Alex Noren

Complete Betting Board

👆 Click any player row for history, odds, recent form, strokes gained.
# Player Why They Could Win Win Odds GolfData API
1
Ludvig Aberg▼
USA - OWGR #18
CONTENDER
The +1.61 SG Total leads this value tier, and momentum builders don't get much cleaner than T5-T3 in his last two starts. Last year's T14 here shows course familiarity, while the model's 4.54% win rate suggests +2104 offers legitimate value. Minor course fit ding (-0.081) feels overblown given his elite iron play and recent form.
 +2104
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T14
2023NA
Win+2104
Top 5+525
Top 10+282
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T5 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T3 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T20 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T37 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): MC • American Express (Jan 2026): WD
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.62
🏌️ Approach+0.59
⛳ Around Green+0.11
🕳️ Putting+0.29
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.5%
Top 10 Probability
26.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.08
Course History-0.04
2
Tommy Fleetwood▼
USA - OWGR #4
CONTENDER
World #4 priced like a middling contender despite elite approach play (+0.66 SG) that should feast on this layout. The T7 finish here in 2024 proves he can score at TPC San Antonio, and his 1.72 SG Total ranks among the field's best. At +2428, you're getting major championship-caliber ball-striking at mid-tier pricing.
 +2428
Tournament History & Odds
2025T62
2024T7
2023NA
Win+2428
Top 5+546
Top 10+280
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T8 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): 49 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T7 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T4
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.48
🏌️ Approach+0.66
⛳ Around Green+0.33
🕳️ Putting+0.24
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.0%
Top 10 Probability
26.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.06
Course History-0.02
3
Robert MacIntyre▼
USA - OWGR #11
CONTENDER
Fresh off a solo 4th at TPC Sawgrass with that +0.64 putting leading to his best finish of the season. The Scot's never played here before, but his positive course fit adjustment (+0.04) suggests the model likes his skillset for San Antonio. That hot putter paired with steady iron play makes +2536 interesting for a player finding his groove.
 +2536
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+2536
Top 5+564
Top 10+289
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): 4 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T20 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T37 • American Express (Jan 2026): T38 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T4
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.51
🏌️ Approach+0.22
⛳ Around Green+0.23
🕳️ Putting+0.64
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.8%
Top 10 Probability
25.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.02
4
Russell Henley▼
USA - OWGR #10
CONTENDER
Back-to-back strong showings (T13-T6) have him peaking at the right time, plus that solo 4th here in 2024 proves he can get it done at TPC San Antonio. The +0.60 approach play should translate beautifully to this precision test, while the model's 3.76% win rate feels conservative. Consistent performer getting overlooked at +2558.
 +2558
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
20244
2023NA
Win+2558
Top 5+592
Top 10+301
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T6 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T19 • American Express (Jan 2026): T8 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T19
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.28
🏌️ Approach+0.60
⛳ Around Green+0.29
🕳️ Putting+0.38
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.8%
Top 10 Probability
24.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.02
5
Si Woo Kim▼
USA - OWGR #30
CONTENDER
The pricing makes zero sense when you dig into the numbers — just +0.16 SG Total with brutal approach play (-0.35) yet priced like a legitimate contender at +2560. The model agrees, giving him only 0.69% win equity in a field this weak. Hard fade despite the positive course history adjustment.
 +2560
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T14
2023NA
Win+2560
Top 5+585
Top 10+301
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T7 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T50 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T42 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T13 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T34 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T45 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T3 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T2 • American Express (Jan 2026): T6 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T11
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.12
🏌️ Approach-0.35
⛳ Around Green+0.07
🕳️ Putting+0.32
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
7.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.06
6
Jordan Spieth▼
USA - OWGR #63
CONTENDER
Home state magic continues with T12-T10 finishes here the last two years, backed by a massive +0.143 course history boost that the model clearly respects. The iron play has been quietly excellent recently (+0.44 approach) while putting stays steady. At +2730, you're betting on Texas comfort zone and proven course form.
 +2730
Tournament History & Odds
2025T12
2024T10
2023NA
Win+2730
Top 5+611
Top 10+319
Recent Form
Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T11 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T11 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T12 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T29 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.14
🏌️ Approach+0.44
⛳ Around Green+0.19
🕳️ Putting+0.28
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.5%
Top 10 Probability
23.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History+0.14
7
Hideki Matsuyama▼
USA - OWGR #14
CONTENDER
That +0.62 approach number jumps off the page for a course that demands precision iron play, while his short game (+0.45 around green) gives him multiple ways to score. The 2024 T7 here shows he can navigate TPC San Antonio, making the missed cut last year feel like an outlier. Solid value at +2859 despite recent quiet form.
 +2859
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T7
2023NA
Win+2859
Top 5+638
Top 10+328
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T27 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T41 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T28 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T8 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): 2 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T11 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee-0.01
🏌️ Approach+0.62
⛳ Around Green+0.45
🕳️ Putting+0.28
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.4%
Top 10 Probability
23.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History-0.02
8
Maverick McNealy▼
USA - OWGR #27
CONTENDER
Last year's T3 finish here looks even better considering his steady ascent up the rankings, now sitting at world #27 with consistent 1.33 SG Total production. The ball-striking has been reliable all season while avoiding big numbers, exactly what you want for a grind-it-out venue like this. The +3157 price feels generous for proven course success.
 +3157
Tournament History & Odds
2025T3
2024T58
2023NA
Win+3157
Top 5+705
Top 10+364
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T13 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T29 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T13 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): 10 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.42
🏌️ Approach+0.44
⛳ Around Green+0.17
🕳️ Putting+0.29
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.1%
Top 10 Probability
21.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.01
9
Collin Morikawa▼
USA - OWGR #8
CONTENDER
Coming off a T5 at Bay Hill, yet the market treats him like damaged goods at +3172 despite elite SG numbers (1.69 Total, 0.95 Approach). The course fit adjustment (-0.178) raises concerns, but world #8 talent at this price feels like an overcorrection from last year's missed cut. Model has him at 3.06% win equity with 21.4% top-10 chances — numbers that don't align with longshot pricing.
 +3172
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T75
2023NA
Win+3172
Top 5+730
Top 10+367
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): 5 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T7 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): 1 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T54 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.73
🏌️ Approach+0.95
⛳ Around Green+0.05
🕳️ Putting-0.04
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.1%
Top 10 Probability
21.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.18
Course History-0.04
10
Rickie Fowler▼
USA - OWGR #65
CONTENDER
Solid T9 finish at Arnold Palmer followed by a missed cut in Houston creates the perfect storm for a bounce-back spot at +3662. The putting stroke (+0.37 SG) remains his biggest weapon, and T30 here last year before the MC shows he can navigate TPC San Antonio. His 2.66% model win percentage suggests the market is pricing in too much recent volatility.
 +3662
Tournament History & Odds
2025T30
2024MC
2023NA
Win+3662
Top 5+784
Top 10+407
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T42 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T9 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T28 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T19 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T18 • American Express (Jan 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.44
🏌️ Approach+0.24
⛳ Around Green+0.02
🕳️ Putting+0.37
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.7%
Top 10 Probability
19.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.06
Course History+0.03
11
Sepp Straka▼
USA - OWGR #12
CONTENDER
Consistent T8-T13 run in his last two starts, but zero course history here creates uncertainty the market is clearly pricing in at +4248. World #12 ranking with +0.59 approach play should translate well to precision iron layouts, even with the negative course fit adjustment. The model's 2.3% win equity feels light for someone this consistent riding decent form.
 +4248
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+4248
Top 5+940
Top 10+471
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T8 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T13 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T50 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T2 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T18 • American Express (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.32
🏌️ Approach+0.59
⛳ Around Green+0.05
🕳️ Putting+0.12
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.3%
Top 10 Probability
17.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.06
Course History+0.01
12
Michael Thorbjornsen▼
USA - OWGR #54
CONTENDER
Missed cut here last year creates instant skepticism, but T14 at Houston proves the game is sharp entering this week at +4442. The driving numbers (+0.59 OTT) give him a foundation to build on, though course fit concerns (-0.12 adjustment) explain why the model has him at just 2.2% win equity. Young talent priced appropriately given the red flags.
 +4442
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+4442
Top 5+990
Top 10+502
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T14 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T22 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T33 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T78 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T3 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T18 • American Express (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.59
🏌️ Approach+0.33
⛳ Around Green+0.08
🕳️ Putting+0.06
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.2%
Top 10 Probability
16.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.12
Course History+0.00
13
Keith Mitchell▼
USA - OWGR #105
CONTENDER
T12-T14 finishes here the last two years combined with T6 at Cognizant makes the +4794 price look generous for someone clearly comfortable at TPC San Antonio. The course history boost (+0.083) helps offset mediocre overall numbers, and his driving length should play well on this layout. Model win percentage (2.04%) feels conservative given his track record here.
 +4794
Tournament History & Odds
2025T12
2024T14
2023NA
Win+4794
Top 5+969
Top 10+488
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T14 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T46 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T33 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T6 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T52 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T41 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T11 • American Express (Jan 2026): T44 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T66
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.61
🏌️ Approach+0.47
⛳ Around Green-0.06
🕳️ Putting-0.13
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.0%
Top 10 Probability
17.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.11
Course History+0.08
14
J.J. Spaun▼
USA - OWGR #13
VALUE
Elite approach numbers (+0.65 SG) suggest course fit potential, but back-to-back missed cuts heading into this week at +5219 tells a different story. World #13 ranking provides pedigree, though the putting woes (-0.14) and recent form make it hard to get excited. The model's 1.88% win equity reflects the talent-versus-form disconnect perfectly.
 +5219
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T51
2023NA
Win+5219
Top 5+1093
Top 10+526
Recent Form
Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T24 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T45 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): MC • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T40
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.38
🏌️ Approach+0.65
⛳ Around Green+0.06
🕳️ Putting-0.14
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.9%
Top 10 Probability
16.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.09
Course History+0.05
15
Alex Noren▼
USA - OWGR #19
VALUE
T14 here in 2024 plus a positive course fit adjustment (+0.095) creates intrigue at +5534, especially with that hot putter (+0.44 SG) firing. The approach play remains steady enough (+0.33) while his short game continues to bail him out when needed. Model shows 1.77% win chances, but the combination of course comfort and putting form could surprise.
 +5534
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T14
2023NA
Win+5534
Top 5+1058
Top 10+514
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T12 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T29 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): MC • American Express (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee-0.07
🏌️ Approach+0.33
⛳ Around Green+0.28
🕳️ Putting+0.44
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
16.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History+0.03
16
Ryo Hisatsune▼
USA - OWGR #64
VALUE
T5 finish here last year jumps off the resume at +6804 odds, though the follow-up T78 in 2024 raises consistency questions. Recent T13 at The Players shows flashes of world-class form, but the putting struggles (-0.07 SG) remain a concern for closing. Model has him at 1.45% win equity — reasonable for a longshot with proven course success but shaky recent trends.
 +6804
Tournament History & Odds
2025T5
2024T78
2023NA
Win+6804
Top 5+1312
Top 10+638
Recent Form
Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T30 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T33 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T45 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T8 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T10 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T2 • American Express (Jan 2026): T44 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.43
🏌️ Approach+0.43
⛳ Around Green+0.12
🕳️ Putting-0.07
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
13.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.06
Course History+0.00
17
Denny McCarthy▼
USA - OWGR #92
VALUE
Runner-up here last year at +7419 odds feels like daylight robbery, especially when his putter (+0.41 SG) remains the most reliable weapon in his bag. The course history adjustment (+0.13) backs up that T2 finish, and his T12 at Houston shows he's finding form at the right time. Hard to find a cleaner narrative for a longshot with legitimate course pedigree.
 +7419
Tournament History & Odds
2025T18
20242
2023NA
Win+7419
Top 5+1298
Top 10+600
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T12 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T26 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T47 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T55 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T49 • American Express (Jan 2026): T56 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T40
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee-0.23
🏌️ Approach+0.19
⛳ Around Green+0.10
🕳️ Putting+0.41
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
14.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History+0.13
18
Marco Penge▼
USA - OWGR #37
VALUE
World #37 ranking screams mispriced at +7868, but the course fit numbers (-0.155 adjustment) and zero history here create legitimate concerns. That T4 at Valspar sandwiched between two missed cuts tells the Marco Penge story perfectly — elite ceiling, inconsistent floor. The driving (+0.88 OTT) gives him birdie upside if everything clicks.
 +7868
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+7868
Top 5+1588
Top 10+773
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T4 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T16 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T64 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.88
🏌️ Approach+0.09
⛳ Around Green-0.19
🕳️ Putting-0.03
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
11.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.15
Course History—
19
Ricky Castillo▼
USA - OWGR #86
VALUE
Puerto Rico winner two starts ago proves he can close, but that missed cut here in 2025 and neutral course fit make the +8019 number feel about right. The recent form beyond that lone victory (T44-T46-T70) suggests the win was more outlier than breakthrough. Balanced skill set (+0.62 SG Total) keeps him in the conversation without demanding a bet.
 +8019
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+8019
Top 5+1587
Top 10+766
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T44 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T46 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T70 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): 1 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): 5 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T43 • American Express (Jan 2026): T44 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T31
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.27
🏌️ Approach+0.02
⛳ Around Green+0.14
🕳️ Putting+0.18
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
11.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History-0.00
20
Jordan Smith▼
USA - OWGR #67
VALUE
Solo 3rd at Valspar two weeks back with +0.8 SG Total should have this price much shorter, but the -0.118 course fit adjustment explains the market's hesitation. Never played here before, which matters more for precision courses that reward experience. The ball-striking (+0.53 OTT, +0.38 approach) travels anywhere, making him a sneaky DFS pivot.
 +8210
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+8210
Top 5+1614
Top 10+762
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T44 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): 3 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T23 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T16 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): MC • American Express (Jan 2026): T27 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T66
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.53
🏌️ Approach+0.38
⛳ Around Green-0.07
🕳️ Putting-0.04
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
11.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.12
Course History—
21
Alex Smalley▼
USA - OWGR #113
VALUE
Consecutive missed cuts here (2024-25) paired with that -0.068 course history adjustment make this pricing generous rather than insulting. The iron play (+0.3 approach) should translate better to TPC San Antonio's demands, but past performance here suggests otherwise. Model still likes his overall skill set at 11.7% top-10 odds despite the venue concerns.
 +8621
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023NA
Win+8621
Top 5+1614
Top 10+758
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T46 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T24 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T52 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T19 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T35 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): MC • American Express (Jan 2026): T44 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T40
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.22
🏌️ Approach+0.30
⛳ Around Green+0.07
🕳️ Putting+0.07
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
11.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History-0.07
22
Nick Taylor▼
USA - OWGR #66
VALUE
Canadian grinder's short game wizardry (+0.29 around green) plays perfectly into this course's demands, even if his 2024 missed cut here raises questions. The +0.06 course fit adjustment suggests the venue suits his precision-based attack better than raw power. At +8963, you're betting on skill set over recent results.
 +8963
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023NA
Win+8963
Top 5+1586
Top 10+727
Recent Form
Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T42 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T38 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T28 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T24 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T28 • American Express (Jan 2026): T27 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee-0.12
🏌️ Approach+0.38
⛳ Around Green+0.29
🕳️ Putting+0.08
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
12.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History+0.03
23
Mac Meissner▼
USA - OWGR #115
VALUE
T10 finish here in 2024 provides the blueprint, while his +0.35 approach play should thrive again on a layout that rewards iron precision. The 42-shot gap between that T10 and this year's T52 shows the variance, but the underlying metrics (+0.62 SG Total) remain solid. Course fit adjustment sits neutral, meaning it's purely about execution.
 +9060
Tournament History & Odds
2025T52
2024T10
2023NA
Win+9060
Top 5+1558
Top 10+720
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T18 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T49 • American Express (Jan 2026): T63 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T40
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.14
🏌️ Approach+0.35
⛳ Around Green+0.12
🕳️ Putting+0.01
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
12.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History+0.03
24
Gary Woodland▼
USA - OWGR #51
VALUE
Houston winner last week changes everything for a player whose power game (+0.45 OTT) can overwhelm any course when dialed in. The brutal short game (-0.27 around green) and poor course fit (-0.111 adjustment) explain the longshot pricing despite the victory. Win-or-miss profile that becomes much more interesting fresh off capturing hardware.
 +9088
Tournament History & Odds
2025T40
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9088
Top 5+1652
Top 10+790
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): 1 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T14 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T64 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): MC • American Express (Jan 2026): 72 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.45
🏌️ Approach+0.16
⛳ Around Green-0.27
🕳️ Putting+0.12
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
11.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.11
Course History+0.08
25
Christiaan Bezuidenhout▼
USA - OWGR #91
VALUE
That +0.4 putting mark leads all longshots in this tier, and the +0.126 course fit adjustment suggests this track suits his skill set perfectly. T25 here in 2024 provides proof of concept, while the T8 at Puerto Rico shows he can still contend when everything clicks. At +9609, you're betting on one hot week from a player whose fundamentals remain intact despite the recent struggles.
 +9609
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T25
2023NA
Win+9609
Top 5+1614
Top 10+736
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T51 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T30 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T8 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T37 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T27 • American Express (Jan 2026): T38
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee-0.29
🏌️ Approach+0.17
⛳ Around Green+0.28
🕳️ Putting+0.40
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
12.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.13
Course History+0.02
26
Tony Finau▼
USA - OWGR #107
VALUE
Five-time PGA Tour winner trading at nearly 100-to-1 feels like a market overreaction to that T56 finish here last month. His +0.21 approach play should feast on this layout given the positive course fit adjustment, and T18 at Valspar proves the game is trending upward. The +9867 price assumes he's completely cooked, but the underlying metrics suggest otherwise.
 +9867
Tournament History & Odds
2025T56
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9867
Top 5+1790
Top 10+851
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T39 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T18 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T70 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T28 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): 18 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T11 • American Express (Jan 2026): MC • Sony Open (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee-0.23
🏌️ Approach+0.21
⛳ Around Green+0.26
🕳️ Putting+0.09
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
10.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History-0.05
27
Stephan Jaeger▼
USA - OWGR #99
VALUE
T7 at Valspar two weeks ago with solid ball-striking metrics (+0.07 approach) provides the foundation for a breakthrough week. The +0.13 course fit adjustment ranks among the best in this pricing tier, suggesting his precision-based game aligns with what this track demands. First-time course experience isn't ideal, but at +9917, the model sees more upside than the odds suggest.
 +9917
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9917
Top 5+1782
Top 10+849
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T7 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T62 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T67 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T28 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T5 • American Express (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee-0.20
🏌️ Approach+0.07
⛳ Around Green+0.24
🕳️ Putting+0.28
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
10.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.13
Course History-0.01
28
J.T. Poston▼
USA - OWGR #76
VALUE
His balanced skill set (positive in every SG category except around green) typically plays well on courses that don't demand one elite attribute. T26 here last month establishes a baseline, though consecutive missed cuts raise questions about current form. The slight negative course fit makes this a tough sell at +9933, even with the OWGR ranking advantage over peers.
 +9933
Tournament History & Odds
2025T26
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9933
Top 5+1773
Top 10+826
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T50 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T37 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T35 • American Express (Jan 2026): T38
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.19
🏌️ Approach+0.10
⛳ Around Green+0.04
🕳️ Putting+0.16
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
10.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History+0.03
29
Matt Wallace▼
USA - OWGR #96
VALUE
Identical T26 finish here last month alongside solid recent approach work (+0.22 SG) keeps him in the conversation at this number. The Englishman's aggressive style can produce fireworks when the timing aligns, though that -0.02 putting mark remains a consistent concern. At +10018, you need everything to break right, but the course history provides some optimism.
 +10018
Tournament History & Odds
2025T26
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10018
Top 5+1927
Top 10+881
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T51 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T40 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T40 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): MC • American Express (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.03
🏌️ Approach+0.22
⛳ Around Green+0.18
🕳️ Putting-0.02
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
10.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.05
30
Will Zalatoris▼
USA - OWGR #299
VALUE
Elite approach play (+0.5 SG) meets a course that should reward precision iron work, creating the framework for a vintage Zalatoris performance. The putting woes (-0.19) remain the obvious concern, but when his flat stick cooperates even slightly, the ceiling is massive. Trading at +10087 reflects injury concerns and recent form, but the talent gap makes this interesting.
 +10087
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10087
Top 5+1806
Top 10+869
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): MC • American Express (Jan 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.25
🏌️ Approach+0.50
⛳ Around Green+0.03
🕳️ Putting-0.19
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
10.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History—
31
Thorbjorn Olesen▼
USA - OWGR #104
VALUE
Back-to-back solid finishes here (T5 in 2025, T14 in 2024) prove he understands this course better than most longshots. Strong approach numbers (+0.35) and decent off-the-tee play provide the foundation, while that T14 at Houston shows recent positive momentum. The +10445 price feels generous for a player with legitimate course history and trending metrics.
 +10445
Tournament History & Odds
2025T5
2024T14
2023NA
Win+10445
Top 5+1745
Top 10+799
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T14 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T40 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.20
🏌️ Approach+0.35
⛳ Around Green+0.04
🕳️ Putting-0.02
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
11.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History+0.05
32
Adrien Dumont De Chassart▼
USA - OWGR #145
VALUE
T12 at Houston last week signals the young Belgian is finding his footing after early-season struggles, with balanced metrics across all categories. That missed cut here in 2024 creates pricing value, though it also raises questions about course compatibility. At +10809, you're betting on continued improvement from a player whose ceiling remains largely untapped at this level.
 +10809
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023NA
Win+10809
Top 5+1923
Top 10+894
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T12 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T26 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T26 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T23 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): MC • American Express (Jan 2026): 69 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.15
🏌️ Approach+0.10
⛳ Around Green+0.10
🕳️ Putting+0.14
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
10.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History-0.02
33
Rico Hoey▼
USA - OWGR #78
VALUE
Last year's T14 remains his lone bright spot in limited Texas Open history, but the numbers suggest even that was generous. The -0.176 course fit adjustment and sub-1% model win probability at +10909 paint a clear picture: this price reflects hope more than handicapping reality.
 +10909
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T14
2023NA
Win+10909
Top 5+1991
Top 10+937
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T28 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T26 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T62 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T67 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T24 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T70 • American Express (Jan 2026): WD • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T50
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.64
🏌️ Approach+0.44
⛳ Around Green-0.15
🕳️ Putting-0.36
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
9.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.18
Course History+0.03
34
Max McGreevy▼
USA - OWGR #73
VALUE
T19 at Houston last week shows some life in his iron game, with the +0.37 approach metrics offering a sliver of optimism for this precision-demanding layout. Still, a missed cut here in 2025 and no prior course experience means you're banking on one good week to overcome significant structural deficits at +10929.
 +10929
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10929
Top 5+1882
Top 10+877
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T19 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T50 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T40 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T29 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T48 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T30 • American Express (Jan 2026): T27 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.44
🏌️ Approach+0.37
⛳ Around Green-0.01
🕳️ Putting-0.13
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
10.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.10
Course History-0.02
35
Davis Thompson▼
USA - OWGR #120
VALUE
Fourth place at Puerto Rico last month proves he can still contend when everything clicks, but the missed cuts at Houston and The Players tell a more sobering story. The balanced skill set keeps him from complete dismissal, though the negative course fit suggests this isn't the week to chase his upside.
 +10929
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T45
2023NA
Win+10929
Top 5+1962
Top 10+893
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T46 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): 4 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T60 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T64 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T43 • American Express (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.39
🏌️ Approach+0.32
⛳ Around Green+0.07
🕳️ Putting-0.17
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
10.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.09
Course History+0.00
36
Daniel Berger▼
USA - OWGR #38
VALUE
Runner-up at Bay Hill three weeks ago reminds us why he's still dangerous when healthy, with that +0.62 approach play creating legitimate Sunday upside. The question isn't talent—it's whether his inconsistent 2026 form and poor course history (T30 in his only start here) justify fading at +11528.
 +11528
Tournament History & Odds
2025T30
2024NA
2023NA
Win+11528
Top 5+1972
Top 10+919
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T66 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): 2 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T32 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T75 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T16 • American Express (Jan 2026): T56 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.37
🏌️ Approach+0.62
⛳ Around Green-0.22
🕳️ Putting-0.09
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
9.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.14
Course History-0.03
37
Mackenzie Hughes▼
USA - OWGR #118
VALUE
The putter has been his saving grace lately (+0.25 SG), which matters more than usual on these grainy Texas greens where lag putting becomes crucial. Two missed cuts in his last four starts keep expectations tempered, but the positive course fit adjustment hints at better days ahead at +12021.
 +12021
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+12021
Top 5+2196
Top 10+1013
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T55 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T23 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T34 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T28 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T59 • American Express (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee-0.13
🏌️ Approach-0.03
⛳ Around Green+0.20
🕳️ Putting+0.25
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
9.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History-0.02
38
Patrick Rodgers▼
USA - OWGR #72
VALUE
T11 at The Players two starts ago showcased his ceiling when the irons cooperate, though recent missed cuts suggest he's trending the wrong direction. His T56 here in 2025 offers little course history comfort, making this number feel about right for a player caught between flashes of brilliance and extended mediocrity.
 +12046
Tournament History & Odds
2025T56
2024WD
2023NA
Win+12046
Top 5+2028
Top 10+962
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T40 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T11 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T34 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T52 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T60 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T27 • American Express (Jan 2026): T44 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): 3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.06
🏌️ Approach+0.12
⛳ Around Green+0.11
🕳️ Putting+0.12
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
9.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History-0.06
39
Sudarshan Yellamaraju▼
USA - OWGR #131
VALUE
T6 at Houston last week followed by T5 at The Players creates legitimate intrigue around this relative unknown, with back-to-back top finishes suggesting genuine momentum rather than fluky results. No SG data makes him impossible to properly handicap, but +12426 seems generous for someone clearly trending upward.
 +12426
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+12426
Top 5+2129
Top 10+987
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T6 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T5 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T37 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T17 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T54 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T56 • American Express (Jan 2026): MC • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee—
🏌️ Approach—
⛳ Around Green—
🕳️ Putting—
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
9.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.08
Course History—
40
Chris Kirk▼
USA - OWGR #97
VALUE
The veteran grinder posts a modest +0.25 approach number that should play on this iron-centric track, but missed cuts in three of his last five starts tell the real story. His 2025 MC here provides zero course confidence, making this a clear fade despite the reasonable +12831 price tag.
 +12831
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+12831
Top 5+2169
Top 10+982
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T51 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T27 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T47 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T52 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC • American Express (Jan 2026): MC • Sony Open (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.05
🏌️ Approach+0.25
⛳ Around Green+0.02
🕳️ Putting-0.18
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
9.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History+0.11
41
Matt McCarty▼
USA - OWGR #46
VALUE
Consecutive missed cuts suggest he's fighting swing demons, but the +0.33 putting keeps him afloat when everything else crumbles. His model win percentage sits at a paltry 0.76%, and recent form screams fade rather than back. At +13029, there are far better lottery tickets in this field.
 +13029
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+13029
Top 5+2302
Top 10+1045
Recent Form
Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T41 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T24 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T67 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T18 • American Express (Jan 2026): T2 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T55
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.12
🏌️ Approach+0.10
⛳ Around Green+-0.00
🕳️ Putting+0.33
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
8.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History—
42
Kristoffer Reitan▼
USA - OWGR #49
VALUE
That T17 at Cognizant feels like ancient history after back-to-back missed cuts, with approach play sitting at a concerning -0.15 SG mark. The -0.069 course fit adjustment doesn't help matters on a track that demands precision iron work. Hard to justify +13058 when the model gives him less than 1% win equity.
 +13058
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+13058
Top 5+2389
Top 10+1115
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T66 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T17 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T41 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T30 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.46
🏌️ Approach-0.15
⛳ Around Green-0.17
🕳️ Putting+0.24
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
8.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History—
43
Tom Kim▼
USA - OWGR #129
VALUE
Two straight missed cuts here should have him priced longer, but the T18 at Valspar hints at upside if the driver cooperates. His +0.24 approach number plays on this iron-heavy layout, though the negative course history adjustment (-0.062) is concerning. The +13233 price feels about right for a player clearly searching for form.
 +13233
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023NA
Win+13233
Top 5+2401
Top 10+1082
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T56 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T18 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): 59 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T34 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T35 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T65 • American Express (Jan 2026): T38 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T61
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee-0.17
🏌️ Approach+0.24
⛳ Around Green+0.21
🕳️ Putting+0.10
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
8.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History-0.06
44
Bud Cauley▼
USA - OWGR #80
VALUE
Last year's T5 finish here creates legitimate intrigue, especially with his solid +0.27 approach play fitting this venue perfectly. The course history adjustment (+0.068) suggests he genuinely enjoys this track, making +13383 potentially generous. Recent T18 at Bay Hill shows he can still mix it up when the irons heat up.
 +13383
Tournament History & Odds
2025T5
2024T39
2023NA
Win+13383
Top 5+2424
Top 10+1110
Recent Form
Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): 74 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T18 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T37 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T68 • American Express (Jan 2026): MC • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.00
🏌️ Approach+0.27
⛳ Around Green+0.09
🕳️ Putting-0.10
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.07
45
Brian Harman▼
USA - OWGR #50
VALUE
Won here in 2025 and carries the strongest course history adjustment (+0.104) in this longshot tier, which can't be ignored. His T11 at The Players two starts back proves the game is still there when needed. At +13414, you're betting on venue familiarity and proven major championship mettle paying dividends again.
 +13414
Tournament History & Odds
20251
2024T25
2023NA
Win+13414
Top 5+2293
Top 10+1035
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T11 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): 50 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T50 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T19 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC • American Express (Jan 2026): MC • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T61
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.01
🏌️ Approach+0.14
⛳ Around Green+0.15
🕳️ Putting+0.03
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History+0.10
46
Zecheng Dou▼
USA - OWGR #185
VALUE
Missing SG data makes him a complete unknown, though that T21 at Houston last week suggests some current form. The +0.046 course fit adjustment hints the model likes something about his game here. At +13505, you're essentially buying a complete lottery ticket on a player with minimal Tour history.
 +13505
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+13505
Top 5+2471
Top 10+1126
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T57 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T17 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T13 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T49 • American Express (Jan 2026): 73 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T55
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee—
🏌️ Approach—
⛳ Around Green—
🕳️ Putting—
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History+0.03
47
Eric Cole▼
USA - OWGR #119
VALUE
Stellar putting (+0.34 SG) could be the difference-maker on these tricky Texas greens, though his horrific driving (-0.54 OTT) creates obvious volatility. The massive +0.199 course fit adjustment suggests the model sees something others don't. At +13757, you're betting on short game magic overcoming tee-to-green struggles.
 +13757
Tournament History & Odds
2025T26
2024MC
2023NA
Win+13757
Top 5+2242
Top 10+995
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T51 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T37 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T27 • American Express (Jan 2026): T27 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee-0.54
🏌️ Approach+0.10
⛳ Around Green+0.28
🕳️ Putting+0.34
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
9.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.20
Course History+0.01
48
Andrew Novak▼
USA - OWGR #47
VALUE
T3 here last year combined with a positive course history bump (+0.066) makes him intriguing despite recent struggles. His balanced skill set (no major weaknesses) could shine if he rediscovers the form that earned him that podium finish 12 months ago. The +14051 number feels inflated given his venue success.
 +14051
Tournament History & Odds
2025T3
2024T58
2023NA
Win+14051
Top 5+2382
Top 10+1103
Recent Form
Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T55 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T38 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T47 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T48 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T7 • American Express (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.02
🏌️ Approach+0.16
⛳ Around Green+0.07
🕳️ Putting+0.02
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History+0.07
49
S.H. Kim▼
USA - OWGR #141
VALUE
That T7 at Valspar shows the driver is finally cooperating (+0.12 SG OTT), and his putting stroke (+0.32) has been money all season. The T14 here in 2024 proves he can score at TPC San Antonio when both facets click. At +14288, you're betting on his hot putter masking the approach game struggles for four days.
 +14288
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T14
2023NA
Win+14288
Top 5+2573
Top 10+1190
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T7 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T42 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T13 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T34 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T45 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T54 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): 63 • American Express (Jan 2026): T18 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.12
🏌️ Approach-0.35
⛳ Around Green+0.07
🕳️ Putting+0.32
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
7.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.06
50
William Mouw▼
USA - OWGR #121
LONGSHOT
Solid driving (+0.31 SG OTT) should keep him in play on this demanding layout, though the course fit adjustment (-0.091) suggests his skill set doesn't align perfectly with TPC San Antonio's demands. That T6 at Cognizant proves he can contend when conditions suit him. The +15167 price feels about right given his limited upside beyond a sneaky top-20 finish.
 +15167
Tournament History & Odds
2025T33
2024NA
2023NA
Win+15167
Top 5+2743
Top 10+1256
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T44 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T24 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T6 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): MC • American Express (Jan 2026): MC • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T71
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.31
🏌️ Approach+0.03
⛳ Around Green-0.12
🕳️ Putting+0.06
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
7.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.09
Course History+0.02
51
Haotong Li▼
USA - OWGR #81
LONGSHOT
Three straight missed cuts have this former world top-50 player buried in the longshot tier, but his balanced ball-striking (0.42 SG Total) suggests the talent remains intact. No course history here creates uncertainty, though his OWGR ranking at #81 indicates he's better than this field position. Hard to back someone this cold at +15167, even with the pedigree.
 +15167
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+15167
Top 5+2518
Top 10+1145
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T32 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T11 • American Express (Jan 2026): T8 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T55
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.36
🏌️ Approach+0.25
⛳ Around Green-0.17
🕳️ Putting-0.02
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.08
Course History-0.01
52
Johnny Keefer▼
USA - OWGR #60
LONGSHOT
That explosive T3 at Houston last week immediately followed by three missed cuts tells the entire Keefer story — feast or famine with no middle ground. His driving (+0.56 SG OTT) gives him distance advantages most weeks, but the putting woes (-0.15) consistently sabotage scoring runs. The momentum from Houston makes him worth a flier at +15364 despite the volatility.
 +15364
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+15364
Top 5+2559
Top 10+1174
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T3 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T41 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T43 • American Express (Jan 2026): T27 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T61
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.56
🏌️ Approach+0.25
⛳ Around Green-0.24
🕳️ Putting-0.15
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
7.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.14
Course History—
53
Beau Hossler▼
USA - OWGR #159
LONGSHOT
Elite short game skills (+0.30 around the green, +0.35 putting) create a perfect match for TPC San Antonio's penal rough and sloped greens, reflected in that massive +0.153 course fit bump. His ball-striking remains problematic, but this venue rewards scrambling ability over pure ballstriking. The +16475 price offers value if his wedges and flatstick stay hot.
 +16475
Tournament History & Odds
2025T60
2024T78
2023NA
Win+16475
Top 5+2737
Top 10+1226
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T21 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T37 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T23 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): MC • American Express (Jan 2026): MC • Sony Open (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee-0.33
🏌️ Approach-0.35
⛳ Around Green+0.30
🕳️ Putting+0.35
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.15
Course History-0.07
54
John Parry▼
USA - OWGR #84
LONGSHOT
Strong iron play (+0.31 SG Approach) fits the precision demands here, and that T8 in Puerto Rico shows he can still contend when his game peaks. The complete lack of course history creates some uncertainty, but his 61.2% make-cut probability leads this longshot group. At +17092, he's priced like someone with more red flags than his steady profile suggests.
 +17092
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+17092
Top 5+2549
Top 10+1122
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T48 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T55 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T8 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T63 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T35 • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T43 • American Express (Jan 2026): T56 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T19
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee+0.23
🏌️ Approach+0.31
⛳ Around Green+-0.00
🕳️ Putting-0.06
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History—
55
Andrew Putnam▼
USA - OWGR #114
LONGSHOT
Horrific off-the-tee numbers (-0.48 SG OTT) make scoring difficult anywhere, but his elite scrambling (+0.36 around the green) and that T14 here in 2024 create sneaky appeal. The course fit adjustment (+0.087) suggests his short game wizardry plays well at TPC San Antonio. You're betting his wedge magic can overcome the driving disasters for 72 holes at +18027.
 +18027
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T14
2023NA
Win+18027
Top 5+2682
Top 10+1170
Recent Form
Texas Children's Houston Open (Mar 2026): T44 • Valspar Championship (Mar 2026): T30 • THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T44 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC • Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): MC • American Express (Jan 2026): T2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
🎯 Off-the-Tee-0.48
🏌️ Approach+0.02
⛳ Around Green+0.36
🕳️ Putting+0.20
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.09
Course History+0.05

Daily Matchups coming soon.

COSMOS GOLF BETTING PREVIEW
Strokes Gained & Model from Data Golf. Odds from GolfData API.