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// BETTING PREVIEW - MARCH 19-22
Valspar Championship
March 19-22, 2026 | Palm Harbor, Florida
⛅ Tournament Weather Forecast
Expect sunny skies with highs in the 73°F range and light winds around 5 mph throughout the week. No rain is forecast, making for ideal scoring conditions.
Miller
- Win:Justin Thomas+14813
- Top 5:Jordan Spieth+566
- Top 10:Wyndham Clark+546
Kevin
- Win:Jacob Bridgeman+1244
- Top 5:Xander Schauffele+199
- Top 10:Patrick Rodgers+1398
Andrew
- Win:Brooks Koepka+20109
- Top 5:Tony Finau+1563
- Top 10:Jordan Spieth+259
Kcon
- Win:Jacob Bridgeman+1244
- Top 5:Justin Thomas+2015
- Top 10:Jordan Spieth+259
Parbeh
- Win:Brooks Koepka+20109
- Top 5:Xander Schauffele+199
- Top 10:Christiaan Bezuidenhout+608
The Valspar Championship presents exceptional value at the top with Xander Schauffele (+1230) and Matt Fitzpatrick (+1450) showing massive model edges of 7.4% and 6.4% respectively, both ranking #1 and #2 in total strokes gained. Schauffele leads the field in approach play (+0.83 SG) and comes off a T5 finish here last year, while Viktor Hovland (+2532) offers compelling value with his #2 approach game (+0.76 SG) and fresh off his win two weeks ago. The course rewards ball-striking precision, making these iron play specialists prime targets in a field lacking true elite talent.
Schauffele Shows Massive Model Edge
Despite +1230 odds, Schauffele carries a 7.5% model win probability and leads the field in both total strokes gained (+1.84) and approach play (+0.83). His T5 finish here in 2024 and T12 start to 2025 suggest he's primed for contention.
Xander Schauffele
Fitzpatrick Undervalued Despite Elite Profile
At +1450 odds with a 6.5% model win rate, Fitzpatrick ranks #2 in strokes gained (+1.69) and #4 in approach play (+0.67). His positive course fit (+0.025) adds confidence in this ball-striking focused event.
Matt Fitzpatrick
Hovland Offers Winner Value Post-Victory
Fresh off his win two weeks ago, Hovland's +2532 odds seem generous given his #2 approach ranking (+0.76 SG) and positive course fit (+0.036). His 3.8% model win probability suggests strong upside.
Viktor Hovland
Bridgeman's Putter Provides Edge
Leading the field in putting (+0.69 SG) with a T3 finish two weeks ago, Bridgeman's +2539 odds offer value despite slightly negative course fit. His 3.8% model win rate supports the number.
Jacob Bridgeman
Spaun Underpriced With Elite Irons
Ranking #5 in approach play (+0.64 SG) with positive course fit (+0.027), Spaun's +3858 odds appear inflated. His 2.5% model win probability suggests value despite the 2024 missed cut here.
J.J. Spaun
Thomas Facing Course Fit Challenge
Despite strong recent form (T2 finish) and +3930 odds, Thomas shows poor course fit (-0.119) and managed only T64 here in 2024. His approach game ranks outside the top ball-strikers.
Justin Thomas
Theegala Headlines Longshot Value
At +5064 odds, Theegala offers solid strokes gained (+0.91) with 16.8% top-10 probability. His well-rounded game profiles better than the odds suggest for this demanding test.
Sahith Theegala
Conners Shows Strong Course Match
With the best course fit adjustment (+0.116) among favorites and a T8 two weeks ago, Conners' +4439 odds may undervalue his suitability for this venue despite modest overall strokes gained.
Corey Conners
Complete Betting Board
| # | Player | Why They Could Win | Win Odds GolfData API |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Matt Fitzpatrick
USA - OWGR #22
FAVORITE
|
Runner-up at THE PLAYERS just 10 days ago, riding the momentum of his best finish since last summer. The +0.67 approach play is exactly what Innisbrook demands, and his +0.29 putting has quietly improved from the disaster it was in 2024. At +1450, you're getting a player whose model win rate (6.45%) suggests he should be priced closer to the co-favorite. |
+776 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+776
Top 5+176
Top 10-115
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): 2 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T41 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T24 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T14
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
6.5%
Top 10 Probability
34.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 2 |
Xander Schauffele
USA - OWGR #4
CONTENDER
|
Third at THE PLAYERS and now the +1.84 Strokes Gained Total leads this entire field by a comfortable margin. T5 here last year shows he knows how to score at Innisbrook, and with the model giving him a 7.52% win probability, the +1230 price feels short for someone this consistent. Course fit adjustment is negative, but when you're gaining nearly two shots per round across all categories, that's just noise. |
+837 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T12
2024T5
2023NA
Win+837
Top 5+199
Top 10+101
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): 3 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T7 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T19
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
7.5%
Top 10 Probability
36.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.11
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 3 |
Sungjae Im
USA - OWGR #48
CONTENDER
|
His elite short game (0.39 around green) should feast on Innisbrook's tricky pin positions, but the -0.32 approach play creates too many scrambling situations. Two straight missed cuts including Players shows concerning form regression. Even with positive course fit (+0.057), the +13952 price looks fair for 0.71% win chances. |
+959 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023NA
Win+959
Top 5+209
Top 10+103
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 4 |
Jacob Bridgeman
USA - OWGR #63
CONTENDER
|
T3 here three weeks ago followed by a Genesis win at Riviera makes him the hottest player in this field. That +0.69 putting is elite tier, and while his approach work isn't spectacular, he's shown he can grind out scores when the flat stick cooperates. The +2539 number feels generous for someone who just proved he belongs with a signature PGA Tour victory. |
+1244 |
Tournament History & Odds
20253
2024MC
2023NA
Win+1244
Top 5+268
Top 10+130
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T5 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T18 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): 1 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.8%
Top 10 Probability
25.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 5 |
Davis Thompson
USA - OWGR #98
CONTENDER
|
Fresh off a T4 at Puerto Rico where his driving (+0.46 OTT) and approach play (+0.38) both showed well, giving him momentum most longshots lack. The missed cut here in 2024 creates negative course history adjustment, but his balanced ball-striking profile fits better than that result suggests. Still hard to see a win path at +7573 with the putting struggles (-0.20). |
+1639 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023NA
Win+1639
Top 5+338
Top 10+158
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): 4 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T60
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
13.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 6 |
Pierceson Coody
USA - OWGR #90
CONTENDER
|
Strong ball-striking combination (+0.61 OTT, +0.32 approach) gets neutralized by the -0.14 course fit adjustment and recent struggles including consecutive missed cuts. The T16 at Genesis in February shows capability, but that feels like ancient history given the current form. At +9145, the 1.08% win probability reflects the uphill battle he faces. |
+2868 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024WD
2023NA
Win+2868
Top 5+527
Top 10+248
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T16 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T48
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
11.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.14
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 7 |
Jordan Spieth
USA - OWGR #79
CONTENDER
|
The putting has finally stabilized (+0.29 SG) after years of struggles, and that T11-T12 combo at Bay Hill and Riviera shows something clicking. His +0.38 approach work isn't elite but it's consistent enough, and this is still a three-time major winner getting +4439 odds. The course fit adjustment is slightly negative but the recent form suggests he's figuring things out again. |
+3330 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T28
2024MC
2023NA
Win+3330
Top 5+566
Top 10+259
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T11 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T12 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T29
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.2%
Top 10 Probability
18.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.08
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 8 |
Brandt Snedeker
USA - OWGR #-
CONTENDER
|
The highest course fit adjustment (+0.241) among this longshot tier suggests Copperhead's layout still suits his methodical game despite declining overall form. Back-to-back missed cuts and -0.65 SG Total paint a bleak picture, but Snedeker's course history at similar precision layouts can't be ignored. At +75849, you're betting on muscle memory and course knowledge over current ability. |
+3441 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+3441
Top 5+599
Top 10+274
Recent Form
Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.1%
Top 10 Probability
2.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.24
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 9 |
Aaron Rai
USA - OWGR #24
CONTENDER
|
The +0.235 course fit adjustment is massive in this price range, suggesting Innisbrook's precision demands suit his methodical iron play (+0.50 approach). His OWGR ranking of 24 feels disconnected from the +7632 price, though the putting woes (-0.19) explain why the model isn't more bullish. Classic case of right player, wrong week if the flatstick stays cold. |
+3716 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023NA
Win+3716
Top 5+596
Top 10+262
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T23 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T28 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T73
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
14.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.23
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 10 |
Alex Smalley
USA - OWGR #-
CONTENDER
|
The T24 at Players represents his best recent finish and suggests improved form, but the -0.031 course fit adjustment working against his power-heavy profile. His +0.70 SG Total over the sample looks solid on paper, though no course history here and the model's lukewarm 1.23% win probability suggests +8019 is appropriately priced for a true longshot flier. |
+3755 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+3755
Top 5+663
Top 10+300
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T24 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T52 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T19
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
12.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 11 |
Nicolai Hojgaard
USA - OWGR #81
CONTENDER
|
Solid +1.11 SG Total gets dinged by a harsh -0.168 course fit adjustment, but that T6 at the Cognizant Classic shows he can contend on tricky layouts. The young Dane's ball-striking metrics (+0.36 OTT, +0.52 approach) are better than the missed cut here last year suggests. The +4580 price factors in too much negativity from limited course history. |
+3897 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+3897
Top 5+665
Top 10+304
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T27 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.1%
Top 10 Probability
17.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.17
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 12 |
Viktor Hovland
USA - OWGR #14
CONTENDER
|
Won this exact tournament last year, and course history matters more at Innisbrook than most venues given its unique demands. The approach work (+0.76 SG) remains elite even while his overall game sits at just +1.2 total strokes gained. With a positive course fit adjustment and defending champion equity, +2532 offers serious value on a proven winner here. |
+4144 |
Tournament History & Odds
20251
2024NA
2023NA
Win+4144
Top 5+707
Top 10+315
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T13 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T41 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T58
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.8%
Top 10 Probability
25.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 13 |
Ricky Castillo
USA - OWGR #-
CONTENDER
|
Won Puerto Rico two starts ago then backed it up with a T5 at Cognizant, creating legitimate momentum at +8829. The +0.36 OTT gives him distance advantage, though the -0.082 course fit adjustment tempers enthusiasm slightly. Model likes his 11.8% top 10 rate more than the win probability, making him a better bet for a decent finish than a victory. |
+4170 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+4170
Top 5+703
Top 10+321
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T70 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): 1 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): 5
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
11.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.08
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 14 |
Ben Griffin
USA - OWGR #8
VALUE
|
Consecutive missed cuts scream fade, but the underlying +1.05 SG Total and elite putting (+0.46) suggest variance more than decline. That #8 world ranking feels inflated, yet the short game excellence could be crucial on Innisbrook's challenging greens. The +4863 price builds in the recent struggles, but his skill set matches this venue perfectly. |
+5549 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T17
2023NA
Win+5549
Top 5+839
Top 10+363
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T41 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T37
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.0%
Top 10 Probability
18.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+-0.00
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 15 |
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
USA - OWGR #47
VALUE
|
Strong ball-striking foundation (0.28 SG Approach, 0.27 OTT) looks solid on paper, but the putting (-0.11) remains a consistent leak that kills win equity. Last year's T22 shows he can navigate Innisbrook without imploding, though that's hardly a ringing endorsement. Hard to get excited about +18827 when the short game problems are this persistent. |
+5673 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T22
2024NA
2023NA
Win+5673
Top 5+936
Top 10+417
Recent Form
Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): 68 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T40
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 16 |
Patrick Cantlay
USA - OWGR #27
VALUE
|
The missed cut at Bay Hill obscures what's been solid underlying metrics, with +1.3 SG Total still ranking in the top tier of this field. His approach and off-the-tee combo should play well at Innisbrook, though the putting remains a question mark at just +0.11. At +2772, the model suggests you're getting slight value on a player whose floor remains high. |
+5750 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+5750
Top 5+883
Top 10+387
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T37 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T14
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.5%
Top 10 Probability
24.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 17 |
Corey Conners
USA - OWGR #31
VALUE
|
Finished T8 here last year in his debut, and the +0.56 approach play is perfectly suited for Innisbrook's demanding iron requirements. The putting remains a liability at -0.15, but his ball-striking combo (+0.47 OTT, +0.56 approach) ranks among the field's best. At +4439, you're betting on elite tee-to-green play carrying him through. |
+5825 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T8
2024NA
2023NA
Win+5825
Top 5+960
Top 10+421
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T33 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T37 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T70
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.2%
Top 10 Probability
17.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.12
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 18 |
Bud Cauley
USA - OWGR #69
VALUE
|
That T4 here this year proves he can score at Innisbrook when everything clicks, and the +0.069 course fit adjustment supports a return visit. Recent form shows signs of life with T32 at Players and T18 at Bay Hill, suggesting he's trending in the right direction. The +9917 price feels about right for someone with course form but limited upside. |
+6561 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T4
2024MC
2023NA
Win+6561
Top 5+1000
Top 10+430
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T18 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T37
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
11.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 19 |
Billy Horschel
USA - OWGR #57
VALUE
|
Consecutive top-15s here (T4 in '25, T12 in '24) paired with solid putting (+0.18) creates legitimate course history appeal at +37875. Recent T13 at Bay Hill shows he's not completely cooked, though the driving woes (-0.32 OTT) remain problematic. |
+7104 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T4
2024T12
2023NA
Win+7104
Top 5+1119
Top 10+489
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T13 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): 62 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T48
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.3%
Top 10 Probability
4.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 20 |
Doug Ghim
USA - OWGR #-
VALUE
|
Ball-striking looks elite with 0.27 OTT and 0.23 Approach, exactly the foundation you want on a demanding track like Innisbrook. The brutal -0.28 putting completely undermines everything else, and you can't win tournaments losing nearly three-tenths per round on the greens. At +22456, the price reflects the putter concerns, but if that flatstick cooperates even briefly, the tee-to-green game can carry him. |
+7771 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+7771
Top 5+1095
Top 10+465
Recent Form
Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T26 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
6.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 21 |
Wyndham Clark
USA - OWGR #49
VALUE
|
The major champion brings legitimate talent to this field at +8423, but the -0.119 course fit adjustment suggests Innisbrook's precision demands don't match his power-heavy profile. Recent form shows T42-T41-T58, indicating he's searching for something, and the model gives him just 1.17% win probability despite his pedigree. Hard to justify this price when the data points toward a struggle. |
+7967 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+7967
Top 5+1239
Top 10+546
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T42 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T41 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T58
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
11.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.12
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 22 |
Jordan Smith
USA - OWGR #91
VALUE
|
First-timer at Valspar brings decent power numbers (0.4 OTT) but the -0.009 course fit adjustment suggests his game doesn't translate well to precision layouts. That T23 at Cognizant provides some recent form, though consecutive Players misses raise red flags. The +13475 price feels steep for 0.74% win equity. |
+8006 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+8006
Top 5+1149
Top 10+496
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T23
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 23 |
Andrew Putnam
USA - OWGR #-
VALUE
|
Another beneficiary of strong course fit (+0.3 adjustment) despite ugly driving numbers (-0.55 OTT) that typically spell doom at demanding venues. His excellent short game (+0.3 around green) could keep him in contention if the approach play (+0.09) stays steady. The 58.1% make cut probability is the highest in this longshot group, making +28471 potentially decent value for a weekend appearance. |
+8054 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+8054
Top 5+1081
Top 10+446
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T32 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T44 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.3%
Top 10 Probability
6.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.30
Course History-0.04
| |||
| 24 |
Marco Penge
USA - OWGR #29
VALUE
|
Massive driving distance (0.83 OTT) gets completely neutered by the -0.23 course fit adjustment, suggesting Innisbrook doesn't reward his bomber profile. That T16 at Riviera shows he can contend when everything clicks, but the putting (-0.14) and short game (-0.21) weaknesses are concerning. Hard to see a win path at +15607 despite the raw talent. |
+8937 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+8937
Top 5+1406
Top 10+607
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T16 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T64
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.23
Course History—
| |||
| 25 |
David Ford
USA - OWGR #-
VALUE
|
Explosive driving distance (0.45 OTT) pairs with the positive 0.044 course fit adjustment, suggesting raw power can still matter at Innisbrook despite conventional wisdom. Recent T16 at Puerto Rico shows some current form, though the putting (-0.20) remains a consistent liability. At +21101, you're buying a pure boom-or-bust lottery ticket. |
+10006 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10006
Top 5+1458
Top 10+604
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T16 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T32
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
6.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History—
| |||
| 26 |
Tony Finau
USA - OWGR #-
VALUE
|
Former major contender now priced like a developmental tour player, which feels like market overreaction to recent struggles. The -0.089 course fit and concerning -0.2 driving suggest Innisbrook isn't his ideal setup, but class doesn't disappear overnight. At +23429, you're getting a proven winner at lottery ticket odds, though the T70 at PLAYERS shows he's still searching for his game. |
+10017 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10017
Top 5+1563
Top 10+647
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T70 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T28 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): 18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
6.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.09
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 27 |
Chandler Blanchet
USA - OWGR #-
VALUE
|
Just won in Puerto Rico two starts ago, showing he can close when in contention. The massive 0.175 course fit adjustment is the highest number in this longshot tier, indicating his game translates exceptionally well to Innisbrook despite zero history here. Missing the cut at Cognizant immediately after winning is concerning, but at +22456, you're getting recent winner upside with strong course projection. |
+10947 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10947
Top 5+1466
Top 10+618
Recent Form
Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): 2 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
6.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.17
Course History—
| |||
| 28 |
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
USA - OWGR #82
VALUE
|
That T9 here in 2024 proves he can navigate Innisbrook, even if this year's missed cut creates negative course history noise. The +0.164 course fit combined with strong putting (+0.31) and short game (+0.29) creates the exact skill set this venue demands. Recent T8 in Puerto Rico shows the game is trending up after early season struggles. |
+11271 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T9
2023NA
Win+11271
Top 5+1484
Top 10+608
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T8 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T37
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
13.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.16
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 29 |
Ryo Hisatsune
USA - OWGR #-
VALUE
|
Back-to-back T13s at Players and Bay Hill with solid ball-striking (+0.41 OTT, +0.47 approach) that translates well to Innisbrook's demands. The putting is slightly negative but not crater-level bad, and first-time course players often benefit from lower expectations. His +4778 odds don't reflect someone with legitimate top-20 upside based on current form. |
+11602 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+11602
Top 5+1615
Top 10+661
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T33 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T45 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.0%
Top 10 Probability
17.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 30 |
Tom Kim
USA - OWGR #-
VALUE
|
Balanced game profile (0.38 SG Total) gets a slight boost from the 0.068 course fit adjustment, but recent form is concerning with just two starts this year. That 59 at Cognizant was particularly ugly, suggesting his timing might be off heading into Tampa. The +18027 price feels steep for someone who hasn't shown much recently. |
+11748 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+11748
Top 5+1669
Top 10+686
Recent Form
Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): 59 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T34
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History+-0.00
| |||
| 31 |
Webb Simpson
USA - OWGR #-
VALUE
|
The former U.S. Open champion's short game (+0.16 around green) remains elite even as everything else crumbles around him. Missing the cut at Cognizant Classic with -0.32 total SG tells the story of a player whose best days are clearly behind him. At +47144, you're betting on one magical putting week from a proven closer who hasn't shown life in months. |
+13616 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+13616
Top 5+1931
Top 10+783
Recent Form
Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.2%
Top 10 Probability
3.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 32 |
Justin Thomas
USA - OWGR #9
VALUE
|
Runner-up here last year proves he can navigate Innisbrook, but the overall game remains concerning with just +0.96 SG Total and negative driving distance. The course fit adjustment is brutal at -0.119, suggesting his grinding style might not translate as well as the T2 indicates. At +3930, you're betting on vintage JT showing up, which feels like a long shot given current form. |
+14813 |
Tournament History & Odds
20252
2024T64
2023NA
Win+14813
Top 5+2015
Top 10+842
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T8 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.5%
Top 10 Probability
18.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.12
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 33 |
Vince Whaley
USA - OWGR #-
LONGSHOT
|
World-class putting (+0.42) gets neutralized by awful driving (-0.35 OTT) on a course where accuracy off the tee sets up everything else. Two missed cuts in three starts confirm he's struggling to find fairways consistently. At +33991, you're hoping the putter can overcome fundamental flaws. |
+18896 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+18896
Top 5+2277
Top 10+887
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T26 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.3%
Top 10 Probability
4.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.09
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 34 |
Adrien Dumont De Chassart
USA - OWGR #-
LONGSHOT
|
The course fit adjustment of -0.113 tells you everything about why this +25762 price exists — Innisbrook simply doesn't suit his game. Negative strokes gained in approach and around the green create too many obstacles on a course that demands precision in both areas. Hard to see a win path when the model gives him just 0.39% win equity and the course setup works against his strengths. |
+19670 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+19670
Top 5+2599
Top 10+1037
Recent Form
Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T26 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T23
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
5.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.11
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 35 |
Brooks Koepka
USA - OWGR #-
LONGSHOT
|
That T13 at Players followed by a T9 at Cognizant shows the ball-striking is rounding into form (+0.40 approach over his last two measured starts). The -0.19 putting remains a concern, but Innisbrook's premium on iron play suits his game better than most courses. At +6734, you're betting on elite approach work carrying him despite the flat stick struggles. |
+20109 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+20109
Top 5+2671
Top 10+1057
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T9
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
13.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 36 |
Rico Hoey
USA - OWGR #71
LONGSHOT
|
Elite power (0.57 OTT, 0.42 approach) gets completely wasted when you can't putt (-0.4 SG) on Bermuda greens. Three consecutive missed cuts tell the story of a player searching for form at exactly the wrong time. The +11972 number looks generous for someone posting 0.83% model win equity. |
+20540 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T54
2023NA
Win+20540
Top 5+2949
Top 10+1160
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T62 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T67
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
9.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 37 |
Rasmus Hojgaard
USA - OWGR #40
LONGSHOT
|
Missed the cut here last year and brings a brutal -0.187 course fit adjustment that screams fade at +9088. The +0.39 putting keeps him competitive in general, but three straight missed cuts heading into this week including another MC at Innisbrook creates too many red flags. Model agrees with just 1.09% win probability despite the OWGR #40 ranking. |
+21870 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+21870
Top 5+3042
Top 10+1155
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T9
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
11.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.19
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 38 |
Jesper Svensson
USA - OWGR #-
LONGSHOT
|
Strong driving numbers (+0.47 OTT) paired with a T8 finish in Puerto Rico suggests upside potential, but the brutal putting (-0.3) makes winning at +34784 nearly impossible. The Swedish rookie shows flashes but needs everything to click simultaneously for a breakthrough week. |
+22071 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+22071
Top 5+3111
Top 10+1233
Recent Form
Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T8 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.3%
Top 10 Probability
4.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.17
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 39 |
Austin Smotherman
USA - OWGR #-
LONGSHOT
|
Coming off a T13 at Players after that massive T2 at Cognizant shows he's found something with his ball-striking (+0.48 approach, +0.41 OTT). The +0.063 course fit adjustment is one of the few positive numbers in this longshot tier, suggesting Innisbrook actually suits his skill set. At +9032, the model's 12.2% top 10 probability offers decent value despite the putting concerns. |
+22143 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+22143
Top 5+2956
Top 10+1179
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T13 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): WD • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
12.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 40 |
Denny McCarthy
USA - OWGR #73
LONGSHOT
|
Elite putting (0.36 SG) gets a nice boost from the 0.068 course fit adjustment, suggesting his best skill translates well to Innisbrook's demands. Problem is everything else: awful driving (-0.28 OTT), back-to-back missed cuts, and zero course history to lean on. The +18650 number feels about right for a one-dimensional player hoping his putter gets nuclear. |
+22604 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+22604
Top 5+2639
Top 10+1004
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T47 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T55
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 41 |
Patrick Fishburn
USA - OWGR #-
LONGSHOT
|
Consecutive events producing a missed cut then T40 shows the inconsistency pattern typical of developmental tour players, with the -0.55 SG Total confirming current Tour-level struggles. The +0.04 putting and minimal course history adjustment provide thin reasons for optimism. At +117547 with just 38.3% make cut odds, this represents the definition of a prayer play with no compelling angle. |
+23020 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+23020
Top 5+3136
Top 10+1200
Recent Form
Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T40
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.1%
Top 10 Probability
1.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.08
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 42 |
David Lipsky
USA - OWGR #-
LONGSHOT
|
Solid short game numbers (+0.07 around green) and decent approach work (+0.08) create some upside at +40716, but the driving struggles (-0.24 OTT) limit his ceiling significantly. Course fit adjustment favors him slightly, though recent form remains uninspiring. |
+23239 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+23239
Top 5+2741
Top 10+1050
Recent Form
Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T37 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.2%
Top 10 Probability
4.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.15
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 43 |
Zach Bauchou
USA - OWGR #-
LONGSHOT
|
Three straight made cuts including a T21 in Puerto Rico shows legitimate recent form, yet the market hasn't caught up at +30669. Missing SG data makes evaluation difficult, but the consistent results and neutral course fit suggest he's worth a deeper dive. Sometimes the best longshots are hiding in plain sight. |
+24116 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+24116
Top 5+2929
Top 10+1097
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T50 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T21 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T23
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.3%
Top 10 Probability
4.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History—
| |||
| 44 |
Blades Brown
USA - OWGR #-
LONGSHOT
|
Third-place finish in Puerto Rico two starts ago represents legitimate recent form that separates him from this longshot pack. No SG data available makes evaluation tricky, but that runner-up showing proves he can compete when conditions align. The +50747 price accounts for the unknown, but recent results suggest more upside than the model's 0.2% win probability indicates. |
+27366 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+27366
Top 5+3073
Top 10+1191
Recent Form
Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): 3 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.2%
Top 10 Probability
3.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.06
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 45 |
Gary Woodland
USA - OWGR #-
LONGSHOT
|
Former major champion brings proven clutch gene but the current form is abysmal with -0.15 total SG and consecutive missed cuts. The +36710 price reflects his diminished status accurately — hard to find any realistic path to contention. |
+28451 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+28451
Top 5+3662
Top 10+1415
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.3%
Top 10 Probability
4.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.11
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 46 |
Patrick Rodgers
USA - OWGR #87
LONGSHOT
|
The T11 at Players looks encouraging until you dig into the -0.095 course fit adjustment that kills his chances at Innisbrook. His balanced skill set (0.63 SG Total across the board) plays better on easier tracks, not this precision grind. At +10950, the model gives him just 0.91% win equity — hard to justify even as a lottery ticket. |
+32052 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023NA
Win+32052
Top 5+3734
Top 10+1398
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T11 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T34 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T52
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
10.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.10
Course History-0.04
| |||
| 47 |
John VanDerLaan
USA - OWGR #-
LONGSHOT
|
T21 in Puerto Rico followed by another missed cut continues the inconsistent pattern typical of players grinding for status. Without SG data to analyze, you're flying blind on a +52997 longshot whose model metrics (0.19% win probability) scream stay away. The course fit adjustment (-0.034) suggests this track doesn't favor his strengths either. |
+33770 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+33770
Top 5+4047
Top 10+1523
Recent Form
Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T21 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.2%
Top 10 Probability
3.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 48 |
Davis Chatfield
USA - OWGR #-
LONGSHOT
|
Lacking complete strokes gained data limits proper evaluation, though the strong +0.255 course fit adjustment and 43.7% make cut probability represent the best statistical profile among these extreme longshots. That T42 in Puerto Rico shows he can survive weekends when the game clicks. The +130335 price reflects the data uncertainty, but the course fit metrics suggest potential value if skills translate. |
+34789 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+34789
Top 5+4616
Top 10+1567
Recent Form
Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T42 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.1%
Top 10 Probability
2.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.26
Course History—
| |||
| 49 |
Max McGreevy
USA - OWGR #70
LONGSHOT
|
Elite driving distance (+0.47 OTT) gets rewarded with the strongest course fit adjustment (+0.109) among this longshot group, suggesting Innisbrook's layout plays to his power game. The -0.13 putting is concerning for someone who needs everything to break right, but T29 finishes at both Players and Pebble show he's not completely lost. |
+38893 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T54
2024NA
2023NA
Win+38893
Top 5+4104
Top 10+1542
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T50 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T40 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T29
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
13.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.11
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 50 |
Stephan Jaeger
USA - OWGR #-
LONGSHOT
|
Short game skills (0.24 Around Green, 0.24 Putting) typically play well at target golf courses, but the massive -0.125 course fit adjustment screams danger. His weak driving (-0.30 OTT) gets punished even more severely here than usual, creating an uphill battle from every tee box. The +20661 price acknowledges this is a terrible stylistic matchup. |
+45081 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+45081
Top 5+5903
Top 10+2090
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T62 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T67
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
6.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.12
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 51 |
Nick Taylor
USA - OWGR #51
LONGSHOT
|
Steady +0.81 SG Total with strong short game skills (+0.28 around green) that could be crucial on Innisbrook's tricky surfaces. The Canadian's game lacks explosiveness but rarely implodes, posting four straight made cuts with modest but consistent metrics. The +5697 price offers decent make-cut value but limited upside for outright betting. |
+51457 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T64
2023NA
Win+51457
Top 5+5234
Top 10+1782
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): T42 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T38 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T28 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.7%
Top 10 Probability
16.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.09
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 52 |
Karl Vilips
USA - OWGR #-
LONGSHOT
|
Back-to-back missed cuts including THE PLAYERS Championship highlight a player trending in the wrong direction, with the -0.62 SG Total and -0.119 course fit creating a perfect storm of negative indicators. The former amateur standout shows flashes in short game categories but lacks the consistency required for weekend golf. Even at +122349, the 37.7% make cut probability suggests better lottery tickets exist. |
+54958 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+54958
Top 5+6501
Top 10+2334
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.1%
Top 10 Probability
1.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.12
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 53 |
Mackenzie Hughes
USA - OWGR #96
LONGSHOT
|
Last year's T3 finish provides real blueprint for success at Innisbrook, even if the -0.046 course fit suggests he's swimming upstream this time. The 0.22 SG Total is respectable but gets dinged by awful driving (-0.22 OTT), which matters more here than most places. At +18419, you're betting on lightning striking twice rather than any sustainable edge. |
+59145 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T36
2024T3
2023NA
Win+59145
Top 5+7528
Top 10+2548
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T23 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T34
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 54 |
Matthieu Pavon
USA - OWGR #-
LONGSHOT
|
Catastrophic approach play (-0.39 SG) has turned the former Farmers Insurance Open winner into a liability on precision courses. The putting (+0.13) remains functional, but when you're bleeding nearly four-tenths of a shot per round on approaches, Sunday relevance becomes impossible. At +57592, even the bookmakers have given up on the Frenchman's 2024 form returning. |
+60096 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+60096
Top 5+6306
Top 10+2229
Recent Form
THE PLAYERS Championship (Mar 2026): MC • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T42 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T17
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.2%
Top 10 Probability
2.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 55 |
Kris Ventura
USA - OWGR #-
LONGSHOT
|
Back-to-back missed cuts heading into Valspar, but the +0.27 putting is elite-level and could single-handedly flip his fortunes on Innisbrook's tricky greens. The -0.2 approach play is concerning given this course's emphasis on iron accuracy, making the +30512 price feel about right for a pure putting-dependent play. |
+63375 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+63375
Top 5+7257
Top 10+2519
Recent Form
Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.3%
Top 10 Probability
5.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History-0.02
| |||
Daily Matchups coming soon.