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// BETTING PREVIEW - FEBRUARY 5-8
WM Phoenix Open
February 5-8, 2026 | Scottsdale, Arizona
Parbeh
- Win:Corey Conners+10538
- Top 5:Xander Schauffele+414
- Top 10:Scottie Scheffler-222
Miller
- Win:Hideki Matsuyama+2960
- Top 5:Maverick McNealy+763
- Top 10:Keith Mitchell+730
Kevin
- Win:Jake Knapp+5566
- Top 5:Maverick McNealy+763
- Top 10:Si Woo Kim+270
Andrew
- Win:Harris English+4700
- Top 5:Nicolai Hojgaard+1510
- Top 10:Michael Kim—
Kcon
- Win:Hideki Matsuyama+2960
- Top 5:Maverick McNealy+763
- Top 10:Ben Griffin+348
TPC Scottsdale rewards precision iron play and putting, making Scottie Scheffler the standout play despite +225 odds - our model gives him a massive 26.0% win probability with elite approach play (+1.30 SG) and putting (+0.56 SG). Value hunters should target Maverick McNealy at +3300, who ranks 9th in total strokes gained (+1.25) with strong recent course form (T9 in 2025, T6 in 2024) and positive course fit (+0.045). Among longshots, Harry Hall at +5200 offers compelling upside as the field's top putter (+0.72 SG) with a 14.2% top-10 probability.
Scheffler Massive Model Edge
Despite short +225 odds, our model gives Scheffler a 26.0% win probability - a staggering 25.7% edge. He leads the field in approach play (+1.30 SG) and ranks 3rd in putting (+0.56 SG), perfect for TPC Scottsdale's demands.
Scottie Scheffler
McNealy Outstanding Course Value
At +3300 odds, McNealy offers 2.3% model win probability with excellent recent course history (T9 in 2025, T6 in 2024). His +1.25 total strokes gained ranks 9th in the field with strong course fit (+0.045).
Maverick McNealy
Griffin Undervalued Ball-Striker
Ben Griffin at +2900 presents 2.4% model win probability despite ranking 4th in total strokes gained (+1.54). His positive course fit (+0.048) aligns perfectly with TPC Scottsdale's premium on iron play.
Ben Griffin
Hall Elite Putting Longshot
Harry Hall leads the field in putting (+0.72 SG) at +5200 odds with 14.2% top-10 probability. His putting dominance could be decisive on TPC Scottsdale's tricky bentgrass greens.
Harry Hall
Young Strong Recent Form
Cameron Young at +2400 offers 3.5% model win probability with solid course history (T12 in 2025, T8 in 2024). He ranks 4th in putting (+0.45 SG) and 5th in total strokes gained (+1.49).
Cameron Young
Matsuyama Course History King
Hideki Matsuyama leads all players in course history adjustment (+0.162 strokes) with a 2023 victory here. At +2500, he offers 3.3% model win probability despite recent middling form.
Hideki Matsuyama
Thorbjornsen Sleeper Pick
Michael Thorbjornsen at +5600 presents excellent longshot value with +1.01 total strokes gained and 14.6% top-10 probability. His well-rounded game suits TPC Scottsdale's varied demands.
Michael Thorbjornsen
Si Woo Kim Overpriced Favorite
Despite +2700 odds placing him 5th in betting favorites, Si Woo Kim ranks just 71st in total strokes gained (+0.15) with only 0.3% model win probability. Avoid at current price.
Si Woo Kim
Spieth Course History Boost
Jordan Spieth gets a significant +0.096 course history adjustment at +5500 odds with 11.0% top-10 probability. His past success here provides value despite recent inconsistent form.
Jordan Spieth
Complete Betting Board
| # | Player | Why They Could Win | Win Odds GolfData API |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Scottie Scheffler
US - OWGR #1
FAVORITE
|
The world's #1 player arrives in Phoenix with blazing form, capturing wins at both the American Express and Hero World Challenge to start 2026. His elite iron play and approach game should thrive on TPC Scottsdale's precision-demanding layout, where scoring opportunities come from dialing in wedge distances. At 2.25/1 odds, he's the clear favorite for good reason given his recent dominance and skill set that perfectly matches this venue's requirements. |
+285 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T25
2024T3
20231
Win+285
Top 5-122
Top 10-222
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): 1st • Hero World Challenge (Dec 2025): 1st • DP World Tour Championship (Nov 2025): T8
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
26.0%
Top 10 Probability
69.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History+0.07
| |||
| 2 |
Xander Schauffele
US - OWGR #4
CONTENDER
|
Despite a missed cut at Torrey Pines, Schauffele's methodical game and proven major championship pedigree make him dangerous at courses requiring precision iron play like TPC Scottsdale. His ability to handle pressure situations and execute under the intense 16th hole atmosphere gives him an edge over the field. The 19/1 odds provide solid value for a player of his caliber who tends to peak in big-stage environments. |
+1913 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+1913
Top 5+414
Top 10+215
Recent Form
Baycurrent Classic (Oct 2025): Won • Struggled mid-2025: missed Tour Championship for first time since 2017 • 2024: Won PGA Championship & The Open Championship
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
5.0%
Top 10 Probability
31.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.09
| |||
| 3 |
Cameron Young
US - OWGR #20
VALUE
|
Young's explosive distance off the tee gives him a significant advantage on TPC Scottsdale's 7,261-yard layout, where bombers traditionally thrive with shorter approach shots into scoring positions. His ability to attack pins with mid-to-short irons after crushing drives sets up numerous birdie opportunities on a course where -19 typically wins. The 24.5/1 odds offer appealing value for a player whose power game perfectly suits this venue's moderate bomber advantage. |
+2771 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T12
2024T8
2023NA
Win+2771
Top 5+552
Top 10+278
Recent Form
Sony Open (Jan 2026): T35 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T27 • Houston Open (Nov 2025): T18
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.5%
Top 10 Probability
26.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 4 |
Hideki Matsuyama
JP - OWGR #15
VALUE
|
Matsuyama's recent Hero World Challenge victory and consistent ball-striking make him a compelling play at TPC Scottsdale, where precision approach shots are paramount. His methodical course management and elite iron play historically perform well on overseeded bermuda surfaces that reward accuracy over aggression. Coming off a T5 at The Sentry and riding confidence from his December win, the 25/1 odds provide excellent value for a major champion hitting his stride. |
+2960 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T25
2024T22
2023NA
Win+2960
Top 5+571
Top 10+283
Recent Form
Hero World Challenge (Dec 2025): Won (playoff vs Noren) • The Sentry (Jan 2025): Won • 2025: Two wins, 100% cuts made through March
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.3%
Top 10 Probability
26.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History+0.16
| |||
| 5 |
Si Woo Kim
KR - OWGR #42
VALUE
|
Kim's T6 finish at the American Express showcases his current form on desert courses similar to TPC Scottsdale's conditions and setup. His aggressive style and ability to make birdies in bunches suits a venue where players need to reach -19 to contend for victory. At 27/1 odds, he represents solid value as a proven winner who thrives in high-energy environments like Phoenix's raucous 16th hole atmosphere. |
+3040 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T21
2024T12
2023NA
Win+3040
Top 5+556
Top 10+270
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T6 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T34 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T47 • Houston Open (Oct 2025): MC
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.3%
Top 10 Probability
5.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 6 |
Ben Griffin
US - OWGR #8
VALUE
|
Griffin's steady recent form, including three consecutive top-25 finishes, demonstrates the consistent ball-striking that succeeds at precision-demanding TPC Scottsdale. His methodical approach game and wedge proximity control align perfectly with a course where iron play and short-game execution separate winners from contenders. The 29/1 odds provide attractive value for a player trending upward with a skill set tailor-made for this venue's requirements. |
+4102 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T36
2024T28
2023NA
Win+4102
Top 5+723
Top 10+348
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T24 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T23 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T15 • Houston Open (Nov 2025): MC
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.4%
Top 10 Probability
22.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 7 |
Maverick McNealy
US - OWGR #23
VALUE
|
McNealy's exceptional ball-striking consistency makes him a live longshot at TPC Scottsdale, where precision iron play separates winners from the field. His recent surge includes three top-3 finishes in 2025 and a runner-up at Riviera, showing he's primed to break through on courses that reward surgical approach shots. At 33/1 odds, he represents strong value for a player whose methodical game perfectly suits the demanding accuracy requirements of the Stadium Course. |
+4195 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T9
2024T6
2023NA
Win+4195
Top 5+763
Top 10+377
Recent Form
Sony Open (Jan 2026): T45 • BMW Championship (Aug 2025): 3rd • RBC Heritage (Apr 2025): 3rd • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2025): 3rd • Genesis Invitational (Feb 2025): 2nd
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.3%
Top 10 Probability
21.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.05
| |||
| 8 |
J.J. Spaun
US - OWGR #7
VALUE
|
Coming off his breakthrough U.S. Open victory at Oakmont, Spaun brings the confidence and precision iron play that translates perfectly to TPC Scottsdale's approach shot requirements. His major championship breakthrough proves he can handle pressure moments, while his consistent wedge proximity numbers align with what this course demands inside 125 yards. At 43/1 odds, the reigning U.S. Open champion represents exceptional value given his proven ability to peak on courses rewarding surgical accuracy. |
+4651 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025WD
2024MC
2023NA
Win+4651
Top 5+818
Top 10+388
Recent Form
U.S. Open (Jun 2025): Won at Oakmont • The Players Championship (Mar 2025): 2nd • Cognizant Classic (Mar 2025): T2 • Charles Schwab Challenge: T6
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.1%
Top 10 Probability
20.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 9 |
Harris English
US - OWGR #11
VALUE
|
English's proven bermuda putting touch and steady iron play make him a solid value play at TPC Scottsdale, despite recent middling results. His game profile historically fits well on overseeded bermuda surfaces where putting consistency can overcome minor ball-striking lapses. At 40/1 odds, he represents a veteran presence who could easily heat up on the Stadium Course's familiar conditions and manageable scoring opportunities. |
+4700 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T17
2023NA
Win+4700
Top 5+784
Top 10+367
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T27 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T27 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T15 • Houston Open (Oct 2025): MC
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.1%
Top 10 Probability
21.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 10 |
Sam Burns
US - OWGR #25
LONGSHOT
|
Burns' solid recent stretch, highlighted by a T8 at the RSM Classic, showcases the form that makes him dangerous on approach-heavy courses like TPC Scottsdale. His ability to dial in distances with precision irons and capitalize on scoring opportunities suits a venue where reaching pins and converting birdie chances determines success. At 29/1 odds, he offers compelling value as a proven winner whose game matches this course's premium on iron play and wedge proximity. |
+5015 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T49
2024T3
2023NA
Win+5015
Top 5+881
Top 10+420
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T27 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T15 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T8 • Houston Open (Nov 2025): MC
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.0%
Top 10 Probability
19.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 11 |
Chris Gotterup
US - OWGR #17
LONGSHOT
|
Fresh off his Sony Open victory, Gotterup brings the confidence and iron play precision that thrives at TPC Scottsdale's demanding Stadium Course. His breakthrough 2025 season included wins at both the Scottish Open and Sony, showcasing his ability to excel on courses requiring surgical approach shots and bermuda putting touch. The momentum from his recent victory combined with his proven major championship composure (T3 at The Open) makes him a dangerous longshot at 36/1 odds. |
+5257 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023NA
Win+5257
Top 5+927
Top 10+456
Recent Form
Sony Open (Jan 2026): Won (3rd PGA Tour title) • The Open Championship (Jul 2025): 3rd • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2025): Won • Tour Championship: T10
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.9%
Top 10 Probability
18.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 12 |
Rickie Fowler
US - OWGR #83
LONGSHOT
|
Fowler's fan-favorite status at the rowdy 16th hole combines with legitimate course fit advantages, including strong historical putting on overseeded bermuda and improved iron consistency. His steady recent form shows T8-T18 finishes across multiple starts, indicating he's found a reliable baseline for his ball-striking that suits TPC Scottsdale's precision demands. The veteran's experience handling crowd energy and pressure moments makes him a compelling 40/1 longshot with proven upside on this stage. |
+5262 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025WD
2024MC
2023NA
Win+5262
Top 5+940
Top 10+451
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T18 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T15 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T8 • Houston Open (Oct 2025): T23
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.9%
Top 10 Probability
18.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.07
| |||
| 13 |
Jake Knapp
US - OWGR #94
LONGSHOT
|
Knapp's power-precision combination and comfort on West Coast swings position him perfectly for TPC Scottsdale's moderate bomber advantage and approach shot demands. His T11 at the Sony Open continues solid form that includes his breakthrough Mexico Open victory and consistent top-10 finishes throughout 2024-25. At 40/1 odds, he offers strong value as a player whose length off the tee sets up manageable wedge approaches on this scoring course. |
+5566 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T44
2024T28
2023NA
Win+5566
Top 5+1020
Top 10+495
Recent Form
Sony Open (Jan 2026): T11 • Mexico Open (Feb 2024): Won (maiden PGA Tour victory) • Farmers 2024: T3 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2025): T4
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
16.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 14 |
Viktor Hovland
NO - OWGR #14
LONGSHOT
|
Hovland's elite iron play and proven track record on overseeded bermuda surfaces make him a compelling longshot play at TPC Scottsdale. His T5 finish at Torrey Pines last month demonstrates his comfort on West Coast swings, and his historically strong wedge proximity numbers align perfectly with what this course demands inside 125 yards. At 35/1, the Norwegian represents excellent value given his ceiling on precision courses where approach play determines winners. |
+6048 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+6048
Top 5+1070
Top 10+505
Recent Form
Valspar Championship (Mar 2025): Won • DP World Tour Championship (Nov 2025): T8 • BMW Championship (Aug 2025): T12
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
16.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History-0.05
| |||
| 15 |
Matt Fitzpatrick
GB - OWGR #22
LONGSHOT
|
Despite a slow start at the American Express with a T63, Fitzpatrick's elite iron play and course management skills make him a strong fit for TPC Scottsdale's precision demands. His T15 at the Sony Open and consistent international form, including a T6 at the DP World Tour Championship, demonstrate he's rounding into form on overseeded bermuda surfaces. At 49/1 odds, his proven major championship composure and ability to handle pressure situations could be crucial in the unique 16th hole atmosphere. |
+7226 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T15
2023NA
Win+7226
Top 5+1200
Top 10+560
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T63 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T15 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T8 • DP World Tour Championship (Nov 2025): T6
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
15.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 16 |
Rasmus Hojgaard
DK - OWGR #40
LONGSHOT
|
Hojgaard's international experience and strong recent form, including a T8 at the Nedbank Golf Challenge, demonstrate his ability to contend in elite fields on challenging layouts. His European Tour background suggests strong iron play fundamentals that should translate well to TPC Scottsdale's precision requirements. At 55/1 odds, his combination of length and accuracy, plus experience in high-pressure situations, makes him an intriguing value play for his first full season on the PGA Tour. |
+7764 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T12
2024NA
2023NA
Win+7764
Top 5+1272
Top 10+598
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T44 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T29 • Nedbank Golf Challenge (Nov 2025): T8 • DP World Tour Championship (Nov 2025): T15
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
14.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 17 |
Michael Thorbjornsen
US - OWGR #72
LONGSHOT
|
Despite the missed cut at the American Express, Thorbjornsen's amateur pedigree and emerging professional game suggest strong fundamentals in iron play and course management that TPC Scottsdale demands. His Stanford background indicates the mental toughness needed to handle the unique atmosphere and pressure of the 16th hole circus. At 54/1 odds, he represents a high-upside longshot for bettors willing to back a talented young player finding his footing on tour. |
+7826 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T74
2024NA
2023NA
Win+7826
Top 5+1249
Top 10+587
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): MC
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
14.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 18 |
Collin Morikawa
US - OWGR #19
LONGSHOT
|
Despite a missed cut at Sony, Morikawa's elite iron play and proven track record on precision courses make him a strong value at 43/1 odds for TPC Scottsdale. His back-to-back runner-up finishes at Bay Hill and The Sentry demonstrate his ability to contend on courses demanding surgical approach shots and bermuda putting touch. The two-time major champion's ball-striking precision perfectly matches the Stadium Course's premium on wedge proximity and iron accuracy. |
+8399 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+8399
Top 5+1284
Top 10+590
Recent Form
Sony Open (Jan 2026): MC • Arnold Palmer Invitational (Mar 2025): 2nd • The Sentry (Jan 2025): 2nd • 4th in FedExCup standings entering Masters
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
14.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 19 |
Min Woo Lee
AU - OWGR #45
LONGSHOT
|
Lee's natural ball-striking ability should flourish at TPC Scottsdale, where approach shots and wedge proximity separate winners from also-rans. His T14 at Sony Open suggests his iron play is trending upward, which is crucial timing for a course that demands precision over power. At 72/1, he represents excellent value for a player whose skillset aligns with this venue's emphasis on controlled scoring. |
+9102 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T12
2024T71
2023NA
Win+9102
Top 5+1475
Top 10+672
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T38 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T14 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T23 • Houston Open (Nov 2025): MC
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
13.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 20 |
Matt McCarty
US - OWGR #58
LONGSHOT
|
McCarty's scorching recent form peaked with a T2 at AmEx, demonstrating the kind of approach shot precision that TPC Scottsdale rewards handsomely. His rookie fearlessness could be an asset navigating the unique Stadium Course atmosphere, while his dialed-in iron play directly matches this venue's key success factors. The 72/1 odds look inflated for a player riding this kind of ball-striking momentum. |
+9202 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9202
Top 5+1352
Top 10+608
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T2 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T17 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T35 • Houston Open (Oct 2025): MC
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
14.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 21 |
Pierceson Coody
US - OWGR #90
LONGSHOT
|
Coody's T18 at the American Express in desert conditions bodes well for his prospects at TPC Scottsdale, as both venues reward precision iron play and solid wedge work. His amateur pedigree and recent professional improvements suggest he's developing the consistent ball-striking needed to contend on overseeded bermuda surfaces. At 55/1 odds, he offers strong value as a young player with the foundational skills to handle the Stadium Course's demands for accuracy and composure. |
+9217 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9217
Top 5+1500
Top 10+676
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T18
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
12.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History—
| |||
| 22 |
Harry Hall
GB - OWGR #54
LONGSHOT
|
Hall's T6 finish at the Sony Open showcased his improving form on overseeded bermuda, while his T24 at the American Express demonstrates consistency in desert conditions similar to Scottsdale. His recent putting improvements and solid approach play make him well-suited for TPC Scottsdale's premium on iron accuracy and wedge proximity. At 53/1 odds, he offers strong value as a player trending upward with the specific skill set this venue rewards. |
+9319 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T41
2023NA
Win+9319
Top 5+1373
Top 10+605
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T24 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T6 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T35 • Houston Open (Oct 2025): T52
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
14.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 23 |
Nicolai Hojgaard
DK - OWGR #81
LONGSHOT
|
Hojgaard's impressive international form, including a runner-up at British Masters and T4 at Scottish Open, showcases the precision iron play that TPC Scottsdale rewards. His ball-striking ability should translate beautifully to this approach-shot course, and his youth could handle the unique 16th hole atmosphere better than veterans. At 70/1, he's flying under the radar despite having the exact skillset this venue demands. |
+9640 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T36
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9640
Top 5+1510
Top 10+714
Recent Form
Baycurrent Classic (Oct 2025): T14 • Abu Dhabi HSBC (Jan 2025): 3rd • Betfred British Masters: 2nd • The Open Championship (Jul 2025): T14 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2025): T4
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
12.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 24 |
J.T. Poston
US - OWGR #56
LONGSHOT
|
Poston's methodical, precision-based approach should suit TPC Scottsdale's emphasis on iron play and wedge control over raw distance. His steady game typically performs well on courses where ball-striking trumps bombers advantage, making this moderate-length track a solid fit. The 74/1 odds offer decent value for a grinder who could methodically pick apart this approach-shot course. |
+9704 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T16
2024MC
2023NA
Win+9704
Top 5+1464
Top 10+647
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T38 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T27 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T46 • Houston Open (Nov 2025): MC
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
13.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History+0.07
| |||
| 25 |
Sam Stevens
US - OWGR #50
LONGSHOT
|
Stevens' T6 finish at the American Express demonstrates current form peaking at exactly the right time, showing he can compete against stronger fields. His 78/1 odds appear generous for a player entering with confidence and recent validation on similar desert conditions. The key will be whether he can maintain that American Express momentum and handle the unique atmosphere of TPC Scottsdale's infamous 16th hole. |
+9785 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T44
2024T28
2023NA
Win+9785
Top 5+1474
Top 10+651
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T6
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
13.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 26 |
Keith Mitchell
US - OWGR #75
LONGSHOT
|
Mitchell's proven iron play prowess makes him a sneaky fit for TPC Scottsdale's approach-shot emphasis, despite recent inconsistent results. His game has always centered around precision ball-striking, which directly translates to success on courses demanding wedge proximity control. At 62/1 odds, he offers tournament-winning upside if his short iron game finds its rhythm on the overseeded bermuda. |
+10121 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T25
2024T17
2023NA
Win+10121
Top 5+1613
Top 10+730
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T44 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T23 • Houston Open (Nov 2025): MC • Sanderson Farms Championship (Oct 2025): T34
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
12.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 27 |
Daniel Berger
US - OWGR #53
LONGSHOT
|
Berger's iron play precision has historically been his calling card, making him a natural fit for TPC Scottsdale's approach-shot demands. His T6 at Sony Open shows encouraging recent form, and at 62/1 odds, he represents solid value for a player who typically thrives on courses requiring wedge accuracy. The moderate bomber's advantage here won't hurt his chances, as his controlled game should flourish on overseeded bermuda. |
+10390 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T2
2024T28
2023NA
Win+10390
Top 5+1627
Top 10+727
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T56 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T6 • Hero World Challenge (Dec 2025): T8 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): MC
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
12.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.11
| |||
| 28 |
Davis Thompson
US - OWGR #98
LONGSHOT
|
Thompson's recent struggles with multiple missed cuts raise concerns about current form heading into TPC Scottsdale's demanding test of approach play precision. At 86/1 odds, he's priced as a true longshot, but his game profile when clicking has shown flashes of the wedge play excellence this course rewards. The key question is whether he can rediscover the ball-striking consistency needed to compete on overseeded bermuda where proximity to the pin drives scoring. |
+10445 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T36
2024T15
2023NA
Win+10445
Top 5+1591
Top 10+708
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): MC • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T65 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T30 • Houston Open (Oct 2025): MC
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
12.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 29 |
Corey Conners
CA - OWGR #31
LONGSHOT
|
Conners' legendary ball-striking ability makes him a textbook fit for TPC Scottsdale's premium on approach shots and wedge proximity. His consistent recent finishes (T22, T15) suggest his iron play is locked in, which is exactly what this venue rewards. At 62/1, he's undervalued for a player whose precision-based skillset aligns perfectly with this course's demands. |
+10538 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T74
2024T28
2023NA
Win+10538
Top 5+1702
Top 10+743
Recent Form
Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T22 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T34 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T15 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2025): T8
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
11.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History-0.05
| |||
| 30 |
Sahith Theegala
US - OWGR #38
LONGSHOT
|
Theegala's recent form shows strong iron play capabilities with three top-15 finishes in his last four starts, including T8s at both the American Express and RSM Classic. His ability to score on overseeded bermuda surfaces has been evident throughout the West Coast swing, and at 44/1 odds, he presents solid value for a player who has consistently contended in similar field strength events. The precision demands of TPC Scottsdale's Stadium Course should suit his methodical approach to target golf. |
+10730 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T57
20245
2023NA
Win+10730
Top 5+1658
Top 10+749
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T8 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T27 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T8 • Houston Open (Nov 2025): T15
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
11.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.08
| |||
| 31 |
Kurt Kitayama
US - OWGR #37
LONGSHOT
|
Despite the missed cut at the American Express, Kitayama's T12 at the Sony Open demonstrates his ability to score on overseeded bermuda when his iron play is dialed in. His desert golf experience and proven ability to handle firm, fast conditions should translate well to TPC Scottsdale's demanding approach shots and wedge proximity requirements. At 59/1 odds, he offers solid value as a consistent performer whose skill set aligns with what the Stadium Course rewards most. |
+10889 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T49
2024T8
2023NA
Win+10889
Top 5+1639
Top 10+744
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): MC • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T12 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T34 • Houston Open (Nov 2025): MC
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
11.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 32 |
Garrick Higgo
ZA - OWGR #64
LONGSHOT
|
Higgo brings explosive scoring potential with five top-10s in 2025, including a victory and that stunning 61 third round at the World Wide Technology Championship that showcased his ceiling. His aggressive style and proven ability to go low aligns perfectly with TPC Scottsdale's -19 winning score requirement, while 80/1 odds undervalue a player with demonstrated winning pedigree. The South African's recent runner-up at Sanderson Farms proves he's comfortable in birdie-fest environments where precision iron play creates scoring opportunities. |
+10929 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T49
2023NA
Win+10929
Top 5+1694
Top 10+775
Recent Form
World Wide Technology Championship (Nov 2025): T4 (shot 61 in R3) • Sanderson Farms Championship (Oct 2025): 2nd • Corales Puntacana Championship (Apr 2025): Won • 5 top-10s in 2025
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
11.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.05
| |||
| 33 |
Wyndham Clark
US - OWGR #49
LONGSHOT
|
Clark's power-precision combination should thrive at TPC Scottsdale, where moderate bombers advantage meets premium iron play requirements. His T13 at AmEx demonstrates solid current form, and his ability to dial in wedges could be crucial for getting close to tucked pins. The 62/1 number looks generous for a player whose skillset matches this venue's key demands. |
+11900 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T16
2024T41
2023NA
Win+11900
Top 5+1995
Top 10+875
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T13 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T34 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T16 • Houston Open (Nov 2025): T25
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
10.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 34 |
Jordan Spieth
US - OWGR #79
LONGSHOT
|
Spieth's T11 at the Farmers Insurance Open marks an encouraging return from wrist surgery, showing his short game wizardry and course management skills are intact. His proven track record in high-pressure situations and comfort level with overseeded bermuda surfaces make him ideally suited for TPC Scottsdale's unique atmosphere and precision demands. At 55/1 odds, he represents exceptional value for a three-time major champion whose wedge play and putting prowess perfectly match what this course rewards. |
+12145 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T4
2024T6
2023NA
Win+12145
Top 5+1870
Top 10+808
Recent Form
Farmers Insurance Open (Jan 2026): T11 • AT&T Pebble Beach (Feb 2025): T8 • Returning from 2024 wrist surgery that sidelined him 7 months
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
11.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.10
| |||
| 35 |
Patrick Rodgers
US - OWGR #87
LONGSHOT
|
Rodgers' third-place finish at the Sony Open highlights his current form peak, showcasing the precise approach play and putting touch that TPC Scottsdale rewards. His consistent ball-striking has always translated well to courses demanding iron precision, making him a dangerous sleeper at 11000/1 odds. The combination of recent momentum and course fit creates compelling value for a player who knows how to navigate high-pressure situations. |
+13263 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+13263
Top 5+1981
Top 10+874
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T44 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): 3rd • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T45 • Houston Open (Nov 2025): MC
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
10.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 36 |
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
ZA - OWGR #82
LONGSHOT
|
Bezuidenhout's exceptional recent form includes three consecutive top-15s and strong finishes on both tours, showcasing the consistent approach play that thrives at TPC Scottsdale. His South African background provides extensive bermuda grass experience, while his methodical style suits courses demanding precision over power. At 90/1 odds, he represents outstanding value given his current ball-striking consistency and proven ability to contend in quality international fields. |
+14186 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T4
2024T28
2023NA
Win+14186
Top 5+1927
Top 10+832
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T38 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T15 • Hero World Challenge (Dec 2025): T8 • DP World Tour Championship (Nov 2025): T6
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
10.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 37 |
Max McGreevy
US - OWGR #70
LONGSHOT
|
Without specific strokes gained data available, McGreevy presents a pure longshot play at 125/1 odds. His T27 finish at the American Express shows recent competitiveness, and at this price point, any player making the weekend could provide tournament value. The key will be whether his iron play can handle TPC Scottsdale's premium on approach shots and wedge proximity. |
+14499 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14499
Top 5+2017
Top 10+877
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T27
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
10.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 38 |
Nick Taylor
CA - OWGR #51
LONGSHOT
|
Taylor's recent form shows consistent finishes around T27-T34, suggesting steady ball-striking that could translate well to TPC Scottsdale's premium on iron precision. At 76/1 odds, he represents solid longshot value for a player who has shown the ability to contend when his approach game clicks. His methodical style could be well-suited to navigate the overseeded bermuda and avoid the big numbers that derail players in this tournament format. |
+14534 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T25
20241
2023NA
Win+14534
Top 5+1928
Top 10+830
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T27 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T27 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T34 • Houston Open (Nov 2025): MC
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
10.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History+0.08
| |||
| 39 |
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
DK - OWGR #47
LONGSHOT
|
The Danish rookie arrives with exceptional momentum after a runner-up finish in his PGA Tour debut at Puerto Rico, where he set a 36-hole record and showcased the precise iron play that TPC Scottsdale demands. His three Challenge Tour wins in 2024 demonstrate his ability to close tournaments, while his 10000/1 odds drastically undervalue a player with proven finishing ability. The overseeded bermuda conditions mirror European setups where he's thrived, making this debut potentially explosive. |
+16660 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+16660
Top 5+2209
Top 10+958
Recent Form
Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2025): 2nd (set 36-hole record in PGA Tour debut) • Qatar Masters (Feb 2025): 2nd • Won 3x on Challenge Tour in 2024 • Earned PGA Tour card via Race to Dubai
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
9.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 40 |
Sepp Straka
AT - OWGR #12
LONGSHOT
|
Straka's T12 at the Sony Open suggests his iron game may be rounding into form after recent struggles, crucial for TPC Scottsdale's emphasis on approach shot precision. His methodical European style and proven bermuda grass comfort could be assets on this overseeded surface where wedge play separates contenders. At 88/1 odds, he offers intriguing value if his Sony Open performance signals a return to the consistent ball-striking that has fueled past PGA Tour success. |
+16754 |
Tournament History & Odds
202515
2024NA
2023NA
Win+16754
Top 5+2304
Top 10+995
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): MC • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T12 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T34 • Houston Open (Nov 2025): MC
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
9.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 41 |
Haotong Li
CN - OWGR #86
LONGSHOT
|
Li enters with excellent recent form including T8 finishes at both the American Express and DP World Tour Championship, demonstrating the consistent iron play that TPC Scottsdale demands. His international experience and comfort in high-pressure environments could serve him well navigating the unique atmosphere and overseeded bermuda conditions. At 90/1 odds, his recent upward trajectory and proven ability to contend in elite fields makes him an intriguing longshot with legitimate win equity. |
+16754 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+16754
Top 5+2342
Top 10+1001
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T8 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T15 • Hero World Challenge (Dec 2025): 14th • DP World Tour Championship (Nov 2025): T8
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
9.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 42 |
Mac Meissner
US - OWGR #195
LONGSHOT
|
Meissner's T63 finish at the American Express suggests he's struggling to find consistency at the PGA Tour level. At 140/1 odds, this becomes purely a DFS contrarian play with minimal statistical backing. Without strong underlying metrics available, he faces an uphill battle at TPC Scottsdale where precision iron play and wedge proximity are essential for contention. |
+16945 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+16945
Top 5+2432
Top 10+1010
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T63
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
9.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 43 |
Max Homa
US - OWGR #-
LONGSHOT
|
Homa's strong course history at TPC Scottsdale, combined with solid recent finishes (T27, T15) showing consistent form, makes his 11500/1 odds surprisingly generous for a former multiple-time winner. His elite wedge play and approach precision perfectly match this course's key demands, while his experience handling big crowds could be crucial around the notorious 16th hole. When his putting rounds into form on overseeded bermuda, he has the complete skill set to contend for the title. |
+18419 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023NA
Win+18419
Top 5+2600
Top 10+1104
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T27 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T15 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T23 • Houston Open (Nov 2025): MC
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
8.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.06
| |||
| 44 |
Johnny Keefer
USA - OWGR #-
LONGSHOT
|
Johnny Keefer looks to make an impact at this tournament. |
+18948 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+18948
Top 5+2739
Top 10+1176
Recent Form
—
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History—
| |||
| 45 |
Andrew Novak
US - OWGR #32
LONGSHOT
|
Novak's T16 finish at the Sony Open shows recent form trending upward after missing cuts, demonstrating the type of consistency needed at TPC Scottsdale. His 10000/1 odds represent massive value for a player who has shown the ability to contend on precision courses when his iron play is dialed in. The overseeded bermuda conditions could suit his game if he can replicate the approach play that earned him that recent top-20. |
+19381 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T8
2023NA
Win+19381
Top 5+2496
Top 10+1079
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): MC • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T16 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): T37 • Houston Open (Nov 2025): MC
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
8.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 46 |
Rico Hoey
PH - OWGR #71
LONGSHOT
|
Hoey's recent second-place finish at the BoU Championship demonstrates he's in strong form despite the American Express withdrawal, showing the type of scoring ability needed to reach -19 at TPC Scottsdale. At 10500/1 odds, he represents exceptional value for a player who has shown flashes of elite performance when conditions align. His aggressive style could thrive in the electric atmosphere of the 16th hole and the risk-reward nature of this course setup. |
+19444 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+19444
Top 5+2711
Top 10+1164
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): WD • Golf: Rico Hoey claims 2nd place at BoU Championship
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 47 |
Thorbjorn Olesen
DK - OWGR #95
LONGSHOT
|
Olesen's memorable 3M Open performance where he led for three rounds and aced the par-3 8th demonstrates both his ceiling and comfort level in PGA Tour events with unique atmospheres. His five top-10s on the DP World Tour in 2025 show consistent form, while his European precision-based game profile aligns well with TPC Scottsdale's emphasis on approach shot accuracy. At 94/1 odds, he offers exceptional value for a proven winner who has shown he can handle pressure situations and unique tournament environments. |
+19702 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+19702
Top 5+2528
Top 10+1030
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2025): Contended (led 3 rounds, aced par-3 8th) • Valero Texas Open (Apr 2025): T5 • Five top-10s on DP World Tour in 2025
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
8.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History—
| |||
| 48 |
Marco Penge
IT - OWGR #29
LONGSHOT
|
Penge brings elite international form with three wins including a playoff victory at the Open de España, plus a strong 2nd place finish in the Race to Dubai rankings. His withdrawal due to illness at Sony Open creates uncertainty about his physical condition, but his proven ability to close tournaments in high-pressure situations could translate well to TPC Scottsdale's unique atmosphere. At 125/1 odds, his championship pedigree offers intriguing value if he's fully healthy. |
+20308 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+20308
Top 5+2891
Top 10+1243
Recent Form
Sony Open (Jan 2026): WD (illness) • Open de España (Oct 2025): Won (playoff) • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 2025): Won • Hainan Classic (Apr 2025): Won • 2nd Race to Dubai
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History—
| |||
| 49 |
Max Greyserman
US - OWGR #33
LONGSHOT
|
Despite a modest T56 at the American Express, Greyserman's methodical approach and strong iron play fundamentals align well with TPC Scottsdale's premium on precision and wedge proximity. His 10500/1 odds offer significant value for a player who has shown the ability to peak at the right moments when his approach game clicks. The overseeded bermuda conditions could favor his controlled style if he can find the putting touch needed to capitalize on scoring opportunities. |
+20879 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T49
2024NA
2023NA
Win+20879
Top 5+2819
Top 10+1198
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T56
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 50 |
Kristoffer Reitan
NO - OWGR #35
LONGSHOT
|
Reitan brings explosive international form with a wire-to-wire victory at the Nedbank Golf Challenge and an 8th place finish in the Race to Dubai, showcasing his ability to compete against world-class fields. His playoff win at the Soudal Open, capped by a final-round 62, demonstrates the low-scoring ability that typically wins at TPC Scottsdale where -19 is the standard. At 140/1 odds, his proven championship mettle and recent hot streak make him an intriguing longshot value play. |
+22456 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+22456
Top 5+3093
Top 10+1302
Recent Form
Nedbank Golf Challenge (Dec 2025): Won (wire-to-wire) • Soudal Open (May 2025): Won (playoff, shot 62 in final round) • Austrian Alpine Open (2025): 2nd (shot 60 final round) • 8th in Race to Dubai
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
7.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History—
| |||
| 51 |
Alex Smalley
US - OWGR #112
LONGSHOT
|
Smalley's T44 at the American Express shows signs of finding his rhythm on overseeded bermuda, which directly translates to success at TPC Scottsdale. His ball-striking ability has shown flashes of tour-level quality, and this course rewards precise iron play over bombers. At 160/1, he's a massive longshot with upside if his approach game locks in on a layout where proximity to pins determines everything. |
+25541 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T21
2024NA
2023NA
Win+25541
Top 5+3407
Top 10+1408
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T44
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
6.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 52 |
Michael Brennan
US - OWGR #34
LONGSHOT
|
Brennan's T56 finish at the American Express provides minimal optimism, making him purely a contrarian play at 250/1 odds for those seeking maximum leverage in large-field tournaments. Without proven course-fit metrics for TPC Scottsdale's approach-shot demands, he'd need a career week to factor into contention. |
+26216 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+26216
Top 5+3625
Top 10+1523
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T56
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
6.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+-0.00
Course History—
| |||
| 53 |
Jacob Bridgeman
US - OWGR #63
LONGSHOT
|
Bridgeman's explosive recent form with finishes of T4 and T13 in his last two starts demonstrates the consistent ball-striking and putting touch that TPC Scottsdale rewards. His 12500/1 odds drastically undervalue a player riding this type of momentum, especially one whose precision-based game aligns perfectly with the course's demands for approach accuracy. The confidence from recent success could translate beautifully to the unique atmosphere and scoring opportunities at TPC Scottsdale. |
+26449 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+26449
Top 5+3148
Top 10+1298
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): T13 • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T4
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
7.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 54 |
Brooks Koepka
US - OWGR #15
LONGSHOT
|
Koepka's return to the PGA Tour under the new framework brings major championship experience and clutch gene to TPC Scottsdale's high-pressure environment. Despite struggles on LIV Golf, his T12 U.S. Open performance shows his big-game ability remains intact, and the intense 16th hole atmosphere should energize rather than intimidate a four-time major winner. The 32/1 odds provide massive value for a proven closer who historically elevates his game when stakes are highest. |
+27550 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+27550
Top 5+3513
Top 10+1491
Recent Form
LIV Golf 2025: Struggled (31st of 54 in season standings) • U.S. Open (Jun 2025): T12 • MC in 3 of 4 majors • Returning to PGA Tour under new program
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
6.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.11
| |||
| 55 |
Akshay Bhatia
US - OWGR #52
LONGSHOT
|
Bhatia's recent form shows inconsistency with a missed cut at the American Express followed by a solid T23 at Sony Open. His historically strong wedge play and putting ability align perfectly with TPC Scottsdale's key skill requirements, particularly around the greens where precision matters most. At 140/1 odds, he offers compelling value if his approach shot consistency can improve to match the course's demands. |
+29312 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T32
2024MC
2023NA
Win+29312
Top 5+3780
Top 10+1479
Recent Form
American Express (Jan 2026): MC • Sony Open (Jan 2026): T23 • RSM Classic (Nov 2025): MC • Houston Open (Nov 2025): T18
Strokes Gained
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.3%
Top 10 Probability
6.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History-0.02
| |||
Round 1 — 3-Balls
| Grp | Tee Time | Hole | Player 1 | Odds | Player 2 | Odds | Player 3 | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 07:20 | 1 | Christiaan Bezuidenhout | +169 | Kevin Roy | +338 | Rasmus Hojgaard | +150 |
| 2 | 07:20 | 10 | Mackenzie Hughes | +260 | Ryo Hisatsune | +215 | Max McGreevy | +147 |
| 3 | 07:31 | 1 | Patton Kizzire | +278 | Danny Walker | +355 | Michael Thorbjornsen | -106 |
| 4 | 07:31 | 10 | Max Greyserman | +242 | Nicolai Hojgaard | +186 | Pierceson Coody | +179 |
| 5 | 07:42 | 1 | Bud Cauley | +232 | Michael Kim | +223 | Daniel Berger | +157 |
| 6 | 07:42 | 10 | Brice Garnett | +254 | Mark Hubbard | +204 | Vince Whaley | +157 |
| 7 | 07:53 | 1 | Webb Simpson | +271 | Chris Kirk | +248 | Jake Knapp | +126 |
| 8 | 07:53 | 10 | J.J. Spaun | +176 | Sam Burns | +183 | Sahith Theegala | +251 |
| 9 | 08:04 | 1 | Ryan Fox | +298 | Nick Taylor | +158 | Sepp Straka | +177 |
| 10 | 08:04 | 10 | Matt Fitzpatrick | +204 | Wyndham Clark | +261 | Ben Griffin | +153 |
| 11 | 08:15 | 1 | Brian Harman | +307 | Harris English | +136 | Davis Thompson | +203 |
| 12 | 08:15 | 10 | Jordan Spieth | +472 | Scottie Scheffler | -144 | Chris Gotterup | +326 |
| 13 | 08:26 | 1 | Kurt Kitayama | +109 | Joe Highsmith | +438 | William Mouw | +197 |
| 14 | 08:26 | 10 | Tony Finau | +196 | Karl Vilips | +245 | Michael Brennan | +169 |
| 15 | 08:37 | 1 | Gary Woodland | +193 | Adam Schenk | +289 | Jacob Bridgeman | +149 |
| 16 | 08:37 | 10 | Peter Malnati | +446 | Patrick Rodgers | +127 | Alex Smalley | +166 |
| 17 | 08:48 | 1 | Tom Hoge | +261 | Eric Cole | +189 | Marco Penge | +166 |
| 18 | 08:48 | 10 | Zecheng Dou | +165 | A.J. Ewart | +244 | John VanDerLaan | +201 |
| 19 | 08:59 | 1 | Dan Brown | +157 | Kensei Hirata | +278 | Keita Nakajima | +189 |
| 20 | 08:59 | 10 | S.T. Lee | +132 | Davis Chatfield | +101 | Thomas Avant | +1281 |
| 21 | 12:00 | 1 | Rafael Campos | +448 | Corey Conners | +103 | Chandler Phillips | +209 |
| 22 | 12:00 | 10 | Emiliano Grillo | +201 | Takumi Kanaya | +226 | Rico Hoey | +177 |
| 23 | 12:11 | 1 | Thorbjorn Olesen | +181 | Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | +180 | Tom Kim | +248 |
| 24 | 12:11 | 10 | Kristoffer Reitan | +198 | S.H. Kim | +237 | Mac Meissner | +172 |
| 25 | 12:22 | 1 | Joel Dahmen | +245 | Keith Mitchell | +163 | Max Homa | +203 |
| 26 | 12:22 | 10 | Chad Ramey | +235 | Matthieu Pavon | +313 | Sam Stevens | +118 |
| 27 | 12:33 | 1 | Hideki Matsuyama | +155 | Viktor Hovland | +220 | Collin Morikawa | +240 |
| 28 | 12:33 | 10 | Stephan Jaeger | +213 | Davis Riley | +332 | J.T. Poston | +123 |
| 29 | 12:44 | 1 | Brooks Koepka | +411 | Xander Schauffele | +137 | Cameron Young | +162 |
| 30 | 12:44 | 10 | Andrew Novak | +216 | Akshay Bhatia | +248 | Harry Hall | +153 |
| 31 | 12:55 | 1 | Rickie Fowler | +207 | Si Woo Kim | +153 | Min Woo Lee | +259 |
| 32 | 12:55 | 10 | Cam Davis | +222 | Brian Campbell | +273 | Aldrich Potgieter | +138 |
| 33 | 13:06 | 1 | Billy Horschel | +358 | Maverick McNealy | +137 | Matt McCarty | +178 |
| 34 | 13:06 | 10 | Nico Echavarria | +252 | Sami Valimaki | +220 | Garrick Higgo | +148 |
| 35 | 13:17 | 1 | Charley Hoffman | +318 | Matti Schmid | +172 | Austin Eckroat | +154 |
| 36 | 13:17 | 10 | Erik Van Rooyen | +241 | Hank Lebioda | +286 | Johnny Keefer | +123 |
| 37 | 13:28 | 1 | Zach Bauchou | +219 | Chandler Blanchet | +174 | Emilio Gonzalez | +211 |
| 38 | 13:28 | 10 | Jordan Smith | +124 | Pontus Nyholm | +345 | Sudarshan Yellamaraju | +203 |
| 39 | 13:39 | 1 | Haotong Li | +139 | Adrien Dumont De Chassart | +203 | Neal Shipley | +298 |
| 40 | 13:39 | 10 | John Parry | +129 | Austin Smotherman | +214 | Christo Lamprecht | +307 |
| 41 | 13:50 | 10 | Adrien Saddier | +141 | Alejandro Tosti | +227 | Jeffrey Kang | +259 |