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// BETTING PREVIEW - MARCH 12-15
THE PLAYERS Championship
March 12-15, 2026 | Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
⛅ Tournament Weather Forecast
Expect sunny skies with highs in the 73°F range and light winds around 5 mph throughout the week. No rain is forecast, making for ideal scoring conditions.
Miller
- Win:Cameron Young+3949
- Top 5:Ludvig Aberg+1057
- Top 10:Scottie Scheffler+125
Kevin
- Win:Jacob Bridgeman+8608
- Top 5:Scottie Scheffler+227
- Top 10:Xander Schauffele+413
Andrew
- Win:Viktor Hovland+5777
- Top 5:Harris English+1261
- Top 10:Daniel Berger+686
Kcon
- Win:Scottie Scheffler+845
- Top 5:Collin Morikawa+506
- Top 10:Ludvig Aberg+524
Parbeh
- Win:Scottie Scheffler+845
- Top 5:Tommy Fleetwood+710
- Top 10:Ludvig Aberg+524
Scottie Scheffler presents exceptional value at +845 with the model giving him a massive 10.6% win probability despite negative course fit, backed by elite +2.64 SG Total ranking #1 in the field. Collin Morikawa (+2209) stands out with the best iron play in the field (+0.96 SG Approach) and positive +0.182 course fit, while the longshot tier offers compelling options led by Hideki Matsuyama at +5248 with solid +1.32 SG Total and strong 17.6% top-10 probability. The model identifies significant betting edges across multiple price points, with several players offering 2-4% win probability advantages over their implied odds.
Scheffler Massive Value Despite Course Concerns
Model sees 10.6% win probability for Scheffler at +845 odds, a massive +10.5% edge despite -0.078 course fit. His +2.64 SG Total leads the field by 0.5 strokes.
Scottie Scheffler
Morikawa's Iron Play Advantage
Leads the field in SG Approach at +0.96 with positive +0.182 course fit. Model gives him 4.3% win probability at +2209 odds for strong betting value.
Collin Morikawa
Rory Bounces Back From Victory
Despite recent win and #2 SG Total (+2.13), negative -0.299 course fit creates concern. Still offers 4.4% model win probability at +2193.
Rory McIlroy
Si Woo Kim Overvalued
Listed as second favorite at +2178 despite mediocre +0.09 SG Total (#90 in field) and only 0.2% model win probability. Clear betting avoid.
Si Woo Kim
Matsuyama Longshot Leader
Best longshot profile at +5248 with +1.32 SG Total and field-leading 17.6% top-10 probability. Positive +0.056 course history adjustment adds appeal.
Hideki Matsuyama
Henley Course Fit Edge
Strong +0.250 course fit leads favorites with +1.44 SG Total (#9 in field). Model shows 3.2% win probability at generous +3017 odds.
Russell Henley
Viktor Hovland Iron Play Special
Elite +0.79 SG Approach (#5 in field) at attractive +5777 longshot odds with solid 15.9% top-10 probability despite recent form questions.
Viktor Hovland
Young Schauffele Course Struggles
Both Cameron Young (-0.165) and Xander Schauffele (-0.188) show negative course fit despite strong overall games. Proceed with caution in top-10 bets.
Cameron Young Xander Schauffele
Complete Betting Board
| # | Player | Why They Could Win | Win Odds GolfData API |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Scottie Scheffler
USA - OWGR #1
CONTENDER
|
Back-to-back wins here in 2023-24, and the model still loves him at 10.59% despite the softer +845 price. The 2.64 SG Total leads every relevant metric except his brutal recent form — T24 last week, T12-T4-T3 before that shows clear rust. Bay Hill rewards ball-striking excellence, and nobody combines distance (0.78 OTT) with iron precision (0.94 Approach) like the world #1. |
+845 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T20
20241
20231
Win+845
Top 5+227
Top 10+125
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T12 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T4 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
10.6%
Top 10 Probability
44.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.08
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 2 |
Si Woo Kim
USA - OWGR #42
CONTENDER
|
The model screams fade at just 0.18% win probability, but that T6 finish here in 2024 paired with a T13 last week suggests Bay Hill fits his game better than the numbers indicate. His -0.42 SG Approach should be death on this iron-testing layout, yet he's somehow found success here before. At +2178, you're betting on course history over current form — a risky proposition with his 48.7% cut probability. |
+2178 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T38
2024T6
2023T27
Win+2178
Top 5+483
Top 10+248
Recent Form
Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T42 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T13 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T34 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T45 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.2%
Top 10 Probability
3.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 3 |
Rory McIlroy
USA - OWGR #2
CONTENDER
|
Fresh off winning here last year, but that WD last week raises red flags about his current condition. The 2.13 SG Total and elite ball-striking (0.87 OTT, 0.66 Approach) make him a model favorite at 4.36% win probability, yet the course fit adjustment is brutal at -0.299. His T2 at Riviera shows the talent is there, but something's clearly off if he's withdrawing mid-round. |
+2193 |
Tournament History & Odds
20251
2024T19
2023NA
Win+2193
Top 5+500
Top 10+264
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): WD • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T2 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T14
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.4%
Top 10 Probability
27.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.30
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 4 |
Collin Morikawa
USA - OWGR #19
CONTENDER
|
Coming off a Pebble Beach win with stellar recent form (1-5-T7 in last three), and his 0.96 SG Approach ties for field-best iron play. The +0.182 course fit adjustment loves his precision game at Bay Hill, where wayward approaches get brutally punished. At +2209 with 4.33% model win probability, he's the rare player where both momentum and analytics align perfectly. |
+2209 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T10
2024T45
2023T13
Win+2209
Top 5+506
Top 10+263
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): 5 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T7 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): 1 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T54
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.3%
Top 10 Probability
27.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.18
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 5 |
Russell Henley
USA - OWGR #5
CONTENDER
|
The +0.25 course fit adjustment is massive for his methodical game, and that T6 last week shows he's found his Bay Hill groove after missing the cut here in 2024. His 1.44 SG Total doesn't jump off the page, but his balanced skill set (0.55 Approach, 0.35 Putting) typically thrives on courses that demand precision over power. The 3.21% model win rate feels light given his recent Bay Hill success. |
+3017 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T30
2024MC
2023T19
Win+3017
Top 5+650
Top 10+321
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T6 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T19
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.2%
Top 10 Probability
23.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.25
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 6 |
Tommy Fleetwood
USA - OWGR #3
CONTENDER
|
His recent form tells two stories — that 49th-place stinker last week followed by T7-T4 the weeks before. The 1.56 SG Total and steady iron play (0.56 Approach) should translate well to Bay Hill's demands, but his putting remains the ultimate ceiling-capper at just 0.31 SG. At +3380 with 2.87% model probability, you're betting the good Tommy shows up, not the weekend warrior. |
+3380 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T14
2024T35
2023NA
Win+3380
Top 5+710
Top 10+352
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): 49 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T7 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T4
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.9%
Top 10 Probability
22.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 7 |
Min Woo Lee
USA - OWGR #45
CONTENDER
|
Riding a ridiculous heater with T6 last week, T2 at Pebble Beach, and T12 at Riviera — his three-tournament stretch is elite. The -0.212 course fit adjustment suggests Bay Hill doesn't love his game, but his recent T6 here in 2025 and T6 in 2023 prove he can navigate this test. His 1.71 SG Total at +3749 offers sneaky value if the hot streak continues. |
+3749 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T20
2024T54
2023T6
Win+3749
Top 5+817
Top 10+410
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T6 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T12 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T2 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T28
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.6%
Top 10 Probability
19.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.21
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 8 |
Xander Schauffele
USA - OWGR #4
CONTENDER
|
That 72nd-place disaster here last year feels like an outlier given his T2 in 2024 and solid ball-striking metrics (0.71 Approach). His recent form is pedestrian — T24-T7-T19-T41 — but the model's 2.55% win rate seems conservative for a player of his caliber. The -0.188 course fit ding reflects his preference for different layouts, making this more of a talent-over-fit play at +3824. |
+3824 |
Tournament History & Odds
202572
2024T2
2023T19
Win+3824
Top 5+828
Top 10+413
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T7 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T19 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T41
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.5%
Top 10 Probability
19.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.19
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 9 |
Cameron Young
USA - OWGR #20
CONTENDER
|
The ball-striking metrics (1.10 SG Tee-to-Green) suggest he should be dominating, but three straight missed cuts here tell a different story. That T3 finish last week proves the game is right there, and at +3949 you're betting on talent over Bay Hill history. The -0.165 course fit adjustment is concerning, but sometimes raw ability trumps analytics. |
+3949 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T61
2024T54
2023T51
Win+3949
Top 5+820
Top 10+414
Recent Form
Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T66 • Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T3 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T52 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T7 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T55 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T41
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.5%
Top 10 Probability
19.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.17
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 10 |
Matt Fitzpatrick
USA - OWGR #22
CONTENDER
|
Bounced back from that MC last year with solid recent form including T9 at Phoenix, and his precision-based game should thrive on Bay Hill's demanding layout. The 0.57 SG Approach ranks among the field's best, while that T5 finish in 2024 proves he can contend here. At +4435, you're getting a proven major winner whose steady iron play fits perfectly. |
+4435 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
20245
2023MC
Win+4435
Top 5+895
Top 10+443
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T41 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T24 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T14 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): 9
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.2%
Top 10 Probability
18.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 11 |
Hideki Matsuyama
USA - OWGR #15
VALUE
|
Two top-6 finishes here in the last three years, plus that runner-up at Phoenix shows his game is trending upward. The 0.61 SG Approach leads this longshot tier, and the +0.056 course history adjustment suggests Bay Hill suits his methodical style. Hard to trust the putter completely, but at +5248 you're getting a former champion with legitimate course equity. |
+5248 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T6
20235
Win+5248
Top 5+983
Top 10+469
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T41 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T28 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T8 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): 2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.9%
Top 10 Probability
17.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History+0.06
| |||
| 12 |
Ludvig Aberg
USA - OWGR #18
VALUE
|
That T3 finish last week alongside Cameron Young proves he's found something, but the MC here in 2025 and -0.143 course fit adjustment raise questions. Still just 25 with elite ball-striking ability (1.01 SG Tee-to-Green), and sometimes young stars break through on courses that theoretically don't suit them. The +5252 price reflects the uncertainty, but the upside is obvious. |
+5252 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
20248
2023NA
Win+5252
Top 5+1057
Top 10+524
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T3 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T20 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T37
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.9%
Top 10 Probability
16.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.14
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 13 |
Rickie Fowler
USA - OWGR #83
VALUE
|
Four straight made cuts with that T9 last week suggesting a return to relevance, and the +0.044 course fit adjustment is one of the few positives in his profile. The putting has been solid (0.38 SG), but you're essentially betting on nostalgia at this point. At +5620, there are better longshot options with more upside. |
+5620 |
Tournament History & Odds
202571
2024T68
2023T13
Win+5620
Top 5+1069
Top 10+517
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T9 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T28 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T19 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
16.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History-0.05
| |||
| 14 |
Viktor Hovland
USA - OWGR #14
VALUE
|
The 0.79 SG Approach leads this entire longshot tier by a wide margin, and that T3 here in 2023 shows he can compete when the irons are clicking. Recent form is quietly solid with T13 last week and T10 at Phoenix, making the +5777 price look generous. If the putter cooperates even slightly, he's live for a top-10. |
+5777 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T62
2023T3
Win+5777
Top 5+1093
Top 10+528
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T13 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T41 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T58 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T10
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.7%
Top 10 Probability
15.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 15 |
Maverick McNealy
USA - OWGR #23
VALUE
|
Quietly consistent with made cuts in three of four starts, but that T9 finish here in 2024 is doing heavy lifting for this price. The 1.31 SG Total is solid enough, yet the -0.083 course fit suggests Bay Hill doesn't maximize his strengths. At +6338, you're paying for reliability rather than ceiling. |
+6338 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T9
2023T60
Win+6338
Top 5+1179
Top 10+564
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T13 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T29 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
15.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.08
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 16 |
Kurt Kitayama
USA - OWGR #37
VALUE
|
The T2 at Riviera two weeks ago was his best finish since 2023, and the 1.30 SG Tee-to-Green suggests the ball-striking foundation is sound. Three straight made cuts here including T19 last year shows Bay Hill comfort, but the putting remains a complete wild card. At +6379, you need everything to click perfectly for a win path. |
+6379 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T33
2024T19
2023MC
Win+6379
Top 5+1218
Top 10+590
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T18 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T2 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T48 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
14.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.11
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 17 |
Harris English
USA - OWGR #11
VALUE
|
World #11 with a 1.2 SG Total suggests he's playing better golf than these +6379 odds indicate. The T30 last year and T19 in 2024 show Bay Hill familiarity, even if the course fit adjustment is minimal at +0.021. Four straight made cuts and consistent ball-striking make this number exploitable in the longshot tier. |
+6379 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T30
2024T19
2023MC
Win+6379
Top 5+1261
Top 10+581
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T22 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T24 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T28
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
14.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 18 |
Robert MacIntyre
USA - OWGR #6
VALUE
|
Fresh off that T9 finish last year as his course debut, but the -0.091 course fit adjustment screams fade territory. The 1.36 SG Total and elite putting (0.59) are impressive, yet this track historically punishes his skill set. The +6604 price reflects legitimate concerns about his Bay Hill compatibility. |
+6604 |
Tournament History & Odds
20259
2024MC
2023NA
Win+6604
Top 5+1218
Top 10+574
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T20 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T37
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
14.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.09
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 19 |
Ryan Gerard
USA - OWGR #30
VALUE
|
Missed the cut here just last week, which makes the +7112 number look almost generous given his recent struggles. The 0.84 SG Approach ranks among the field's best, and that +0.09 course fit adjustment suggests Bay Hill should suit his iron play. One decent week could flip this board position entirely. |
+7112 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T42
2024NA
2023NA
Win+7112
Top 5+1260
Top 10+602
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T23 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T28 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T45
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
14.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.09
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 20 |
Sepp Straka
USA - OWGR #12
VALUE
|
Back-to-back top-20s here (T14, T16) paired with that T2 at Pebble Beach shows he's finding form at the right time. The 0.55 SG Approach and +0.11 course fit adjustment align perfectly with Bay Hill's demands for precision iron play. At +7173, the recent consistency makes him a sneaky longshot play. |
+7173 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T14
2024T16
2023T65
Win+7173
Top 5+1347
Top 10+627
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T13 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T50 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T2 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
13.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.11
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 21 |
Akshay Bhatia
USA - OWGR #52
VALUE
|
Just won this tournament last week, capping a torrid run of 1st-T16-T6-T3 in his last four starts. The T3 finish here in 2025 proves he can navigate Bay Hill when locked in, despite the -0.062 course fit suggesting it's not his ideal setup. Defending champions at +7381 deserve respect, especially with this momentum. |
+7381 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T3
2024MC
2023NA
Win+7381
Top 5+1354
Top 10+644
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): 1 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T16 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T6 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
13.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.06
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 22 |
Adam Scott
USA - OWGR #68
VALUE
|
That T4 at Genesis two weeks ago was vintage Adam Scott, but the missed cut here last year and brutal -0.122 course fit tell the real story. The veteran's 1.07 SG Total shows he's still capable, yet Bay Hill has been his kryptonite recently. Hard to justify +7911 when the data points toward another struggle. |
+7911 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T45
202371
Win+7911
Top 5+1412
Top 10+675
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T11 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): 4
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
12.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.12
Course History+0.07
| |||
| 23 |
Daniel Berger
USA - OWGR #53
VALUE
|
Runner-up finish here just last week proves he's figured out something crucial about this track. The 0.68 SG Approach ranks elite in this field, and that +0.117 course fit adjustment is among the most favorable for any longshot. At +8008, you're betting on lightning striking twice, but the formula is clearly there. |
+8008 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T20
2024NA
2023NA
Win+8008
Top 5+1437
Top 10+686
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): 2 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T32 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T75 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T16
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
12.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.12
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 24 |
Alex Noren
USA - OWGR #13
VALUE
|
Skipped Bay Hill last year but the T19 in 2024 shows legitimate course history, while that T12 at Genesis proves current form. The short game skills (0.23 Around Green, 0.41 Putting) should translate well to Bay Hill's demands. At +8233, he's priced like an afterthought despite checking multiple boxes. |
+8233 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T19
2023MC
Win+8233
Top 5+1469
Top 10+682
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T12 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T29
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
12.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.09
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 25 |
Jake Knapp
USA - OWGR #94
VALUE
|
Fresh off a T6 at Genesis and T8 at Pebble Beach, the former college star has strung together three straight top-10s to start 2026. The +0.24 SG Approach isn't spectacular, but +1.33 SG Total shows he's found something sustainable in his second full season. At +8315, you're betting on momentum continuing to override the negative course fit adjustment. |
+8315 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T12
2024T45
2023NA
Win+8315
Top 5+1586
Top 10+758
Recent Form
The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): 6 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T8 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): 8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
11.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.24
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 26 |
Shane Lowry
USA - OWGR #26
VALUE
|
That T2 at Cognizant Classic two weeks ago was vintage Shane Lowry — elite approach play (+0.75 SG) and clutch putting when it mattered. The missed cut here last week stings, but consecutive T19-T20 finishes at Bay Hill in '24-'25 prove he can navigate this track. The +8508 price feels inflated given his 12.9% top-10 probability and positive course fit. |
+8508 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T20
2024T19
2023NA
Win+8508
Top 5+1447
Top 10+675
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T2 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T24 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
12.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 27 |
Jacob Bridgeman
USA - OWGR #63
VALUE
|
Coming off that Genesis Invitational win as a massive longshot, Bridgeman has proven he can close when given the chance. The +0.56 SG Putting is elite tier, and that T18 finish here last week shows immediate course comfort after his breakthrough. Model only gives him 1.15% win equity, but the +8608 number ignores the confidence bump from capturing his first PGA Tour victory. |
+8608 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T50
2024NA
2023NA
Win+8608
Top 5+1529
Top 10+696
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T18 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): 1 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T8 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
12.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.08
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 28 |
J.J. Spaun
USA - OWGR #7
VALUE
|
Second-place finish here last week should make him a betting favorite, not a +8724 longshot — something's clearly off with this pricing. The OWGR #7 ranking reflects elite ball-striking (+0.58 SG Approach, +0.44 OTT) that thrives on demanding tracks like Bay Hill. Two straight missed cuts heading into last week, then a runner-up — classic Spaun volatility that creates betting value. |
+8724 |
Tournament History & Odds
20252
2024T64
2023NA
Win+8724
Top 5+1561
Top 10+712
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T45
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
12.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 29 |
Patrick Cantlay
USA - OWGR #27
VALUE
|
World #27 priced like a journeyman at +8750, which screams value even with recent struggles including last week's missed cut. The T12 here last year paired with elite approach numbers (+0.56 SG) suggests this track suits his precision game when the putter cooperates. Model win probability of 1.13% feels conservative for someone with Cantlay's major championship pedigree and course history. |
+8750 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T12
2024T68
2023NA
Win+8750
Top 5+1495
Top 10+694
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T37 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T14
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
12.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.06
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 30 |
Ben Griffin
USA - OWGR #8
VALUE
|
Two straight missed cuts at Bay Hill ('24, '25) make this pricing look about right, even with his strong overall numbers. The -0.043 course fit adjustment confirms what the results show — Griffin's short game-heavy approach doesn't translate well here. His +1.20 SG Total suggests talent, but sometimes certain venues just don't click regardless of form. |
+9275 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023NA
Win+9275
Top 5+1565
Top 10+719
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T41 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T37 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T28
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
12.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 31 |
Chris Gotterup
USA - OWGR #17
VALUE
|
Phoenix Open winner three starts ago, but that missed cut here last week exposed his course fit issues (-0.283 adjustment is brutal). The +0.57 SG Off-the-Tee typically plays well at Bay Hill, yet his T18 finish here just days ago contradicts the negative course modeling. At +9515, you're betting the win momentum trumps venue concerns. |
+9515 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9515
Top 5+1772
Top 10+830
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T18 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T37 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): 1
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
10.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.28
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 32 |
Corey Conners
USA - OWGR #31
VALUE
|
Consecutive top-15s here in '24-'25 (T13, T6) make this +9752 price look generous for someone with clear Bay Hill equity. The +0.205 course fit adjustment is the strongest positive in this entire longshot group, and his elite iron play (+0.49 SG Approach) historically thrives on precision-demanding layouts. Recent form is shaky, but this venue brings out his best golf. |
+9752 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T6
2024T13
2023MC
Win+9752
Top 5+1706
Top 10+790
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T33 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T37 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T70 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
11.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.20
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 33 |
Nicolai Hojgaard
USA - OWGR #81
VALUE
|
T3-T6-T24 run since Phoenix includes a +0.52 SG Approach that grades as elite in this field, making two straight missed cuts here feel like ancient history. The model loves his iron play despite the -0.232 course fit adjustment, projecting 10.6% top-10 odds. At +10263, you're betting on talent over recent Bay Hill struggles. |
+10263 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023NA
Win+10263
Top 5+1799
Top 10+846
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T24 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T6 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
10.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.23
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 34 |
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
USA - OWGR #82
VALUE
|
That T13 finish here in '24 paired with a +0.206 course fit adjustment suggests Bay Hill actually suits his game well, despite last year's missed cut. Strong putting (+0.32 SG) and around-green work (+0.29) create a pathway on a course that punishes mistakes around the greens. The +10595 price looks inflated given his 22.6% top-20 projection. |
+10595 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T13
2023NA
Win+10595
Top 5+1834
Top 10+822
Recent Form
Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): T8 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T37 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
10.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.21
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 35 |
Davis Thompson
USA - OWGR #98
VALUE
|
Fourth place at Puerto Rico two starts ago followed by that T10 here last year creates an interesting longshot profile at +11372. The +0.51 SG Off-the-Tee plays perfectly into Bay Hill's emphasis on driving accuracy and distance. Model sees 20.4% top-20 odds despite the massive price. |
+11372 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T10
2024MC
2023NA
Win+11372
Top 5+1972
Top 10+905
Recent Form
Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): 4 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T60 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T64
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
10.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 36 |
Keith Mitchell
USA - OWGR #-
VALUE
|
Back-to-back solid finishes (T33 here, T6 at Honda) suggest he's finding form after missing time, with elite driving stats (+0.6 SG OTT) that typically translate well to Bay Hill. No course history means the market might be undervaluing his current ball-striking. The +12145 price seems generous for someone with 19.3% top-20 odds. |
+12145 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+12145
Top 5+2124
Top 10+964
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T33 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T6 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T52 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T41
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
9.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.10
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 37 |
Sahith Theegala
USA - OWGR #-
VALUE
|
T6 finish here two weeks ago proves he can score at Bay Hill, and his balanced skill set (positive in every SG category) creates multiple pathways to contention. The +12220 price doesn't match someone who just posted a top-10 on this exact track. Model projects 19.0% top-20 chances despite the longshot odds. |
+12220 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+12220
Top 5+2140
Top 10+968
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T6 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T22 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T60 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
9.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.11
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 38 |
Aaron Rai
USA - OWGR #24
VALUE
|
World #24 priced at +12426 makes zero sense, especially with his +0.56 SG Approach leading this entire longshot group and a +0.369 course fit adjustment. T14 here last year confirms Bay Hill suits his precision-based game perfectly. This is pure market inefficiency on a guy with 21.2% top-20 odds. |
+12426 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T14
2024T35
2023NA
Win+12426
Top 5+1985
Top 10+883
Recent Form
Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T23 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T28 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T73
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
10.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.37
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 39 |
Harry Hall
USA - OWGR #54
VALUE
|
T9 here two weeks ago should have this number much lower, but consecutive missed cuts in '24-'25 clearly spooked the oddsmakers. Elite putting (+0.67 SG) can mask his driving weaknesses on the right week. The +12426 feels like an overreaction to old Bay Hill struggles. |
+12426 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023NA
Win+12426
Top 5+2161
Top 10+937
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T9 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T24 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
9.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.13
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 40 |
Pierceson Coody
USA - OWGR #90
VALUE
|
Missed cut here two weeks ago tanks his price despite strong recent form (T16 at Riviera, T10 at Phoenix) and elite driving numbers (+0.69 SG OTT). The -0.179 course fit suggests Bay Hill doesn't suit his game, but +12426 seems like an overcorrection. One bad week creating longshot value on a player with legitimate skill. |
+12426 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+12426
Top 5+2153
Top 10+978
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T16 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T48 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T10
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
9.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.18
Course History—
| |||
| 41 |
Jordan Spieth
USA - OWGR #79
VALUE
|
Three-time major champion sitting at +12479 screams value play, especially with his +0.94 SG Total ranking well above this longshot tier. The 59 he shot in the first round here in '25 proves he still has elite scoring ability when the putter cooperates, and his +0.34 SG Putting suggests it's been doing exactly that lately. Model win percentage of 0.8% feels low for a player who's shown he can still contend when everything clicks. |
+12479 |
Tournament History & Odds
202559
2024MC
2023T19
Win+12479
Top 5+2169
Top 10+968
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T11 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T12 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T29 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
9.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.14
Course History-0.04
| |||
| 42 |
Nico Echavarria
USA - OWGR #-
VALUE
|
Fresh winner at Cognizant Classic riding that victory momentum into a course that fits his game perfectly (+0.135 course fit adjustment). The +0.26 SG Approach pairs nicely with Bay Hill's premium on iron play, and his T8 at Pebble Beach proves he can score on difficult tracks. At +13414, you're getting a player in form at a course that suits his strengths. |
+13414 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+13414
Top 5+2237
Top 10+1005
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T44 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): 1 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T8 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
9.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.14
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 43 |
Justin Rose
USA - OWGR #10
VALUE
|
Former World #1 with elite approach play (+0.55 SG) getting disrespected by the market after consecutive missed cuts here. The +13757 price ignores his proven major championship pedigree and the fact that his iron game remains tour-level despite recent struggles. Sometimes class is permanent, and this number assumes he's completely washed. |
+13757 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023NA
Win+13757
Top 5+2285
Top 10+1037
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T37
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 44 |
Matt McCarty
USA - OWGR #58
VALUE
|
Rookie with serious putting skills (+0.41 SG Putting) who already proved he belongs with that T20 here in his debut last year. The +0.79 course fit adjustment suggests Bay Hill suits his game, and his model numbers (9.2% Top 10) look strong for this price tier. PGA Tour rookies with hot putters can steal weeks, and +14254 pays nicely if the flat stick stays warm. |
+14254 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T20
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14254
Top 5+2218
Top 10+990
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T41 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T24 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T67 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
9.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.08
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 45 |
Sam Burns
USA - OWGR #25
VALUE
|
World #25 at longshot odds makes little sense when you dig into his skill set - that +0.95 SG Total ranks among the field's best. The missed cut here two weeks ago clearly spooked the oddsmakers, but his T6 at Pebble Beach shows the game is still there. Course fit adjustment looks brutal (-0.149), but sometimes talent overcomes fit issues. |
+14393 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T45
2023NA
Win+14393
Top 5+2296
Top 10+1028
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T6 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.15
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 46 |
Michael Thorbjornsen
USA - OWGR #72
VALUE
|
Elite driving distance (+0.55 SG OTT) gives him a massive advantage on Bay Hill's long layout, and that T3 at Phoenix proves he can contend when the driver is working. First-time player here getting a friendly course fit despite the negative adjustment, and longshot hunters love rookies with one elite skill. The +14642 price pays for power when it clicks. |
+14642 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14642
Top 5+2530
Top 10+1125
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T33 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T78 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.09
Course History—
| |||
| 47 |
Nick Taylor
USA - OWGR #51
VALUE
|
Canadian grinder with sneaky-good approach play (+0.38 SG) and a positive course fit adjustment (+0.112) that suggests Bay Hill suits his precision-based game. The T26 here in '24 provides course history comfort, and his recent consistency (four straight cuts made) points to solid form. Model loves his make-cut odds (65.6%) in this volatile field. |
+14788 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T26
2023NA
Win+14788
Top 5+2252
Top 10+966
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T38 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T28 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T24 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T28
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
9.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.11
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 48 |
Ricky Castillo
USA - OWGR #-
LONGSHOT
|
Back-to-back strong finishes (win at Puerto Rico, T5 at Cognizant) create serious momentum heading into his Bay Hill debut. The +0.42 SG OTT gives him the distance needed here, though the negative course fit (-0.12) suggests some concern about the overall game translation. Still, winners find ways to keep winning, and +15167 pays big if the hot streak continues. |
+15167 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+15167
Top 5+2499
Top 10+1111
Recent Form
Puerto Rico Open (Mar 2026): 1 • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): 5
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.12
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 49 |
Ryo Hisatsune
USA - OWGR #-
LONGSHOT
|
That T8 at Pebble Beach followed by T10 at Phoenix suggests real momentum building for a player with solid fundamentals across the board (+0.71 SG Total). The positive course fit adjustment (+0.091) combined with recent form points to someone who could sneak into the weekend at Bay Hill. At +15324, he's priced like a complete dart throw when the model gives him better than 60% make-cut odds. |
+15324 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+15324
Top 5+2302
Top 10+1007
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T33 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T45 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T8 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T10
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
9.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.09
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 50 |
Keegan Bradley
USA - OWGR #16
LONGSHOT
|
The 2024 US Ryder Cup captain owns that T20 here last year, but consecutive missed cuts including this week make the +15364 price feel about right. World #16 ranking creates false hope when his recent form screams fade, and the negative course fit adjustment (-0.054) suggests Bay Hill doesn't suit his skill set. Hard to justify a bet on someone this cold. |
+15364 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T20
2024MC
2023NA
Win+15364
Top 5+2576
Top 10+1132
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T29
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 51 |
Max McGreevy
USA - OWGR #70
LONGSHOT
|
Massive course fit adjustment (+0.192) screams Bay Hill should play into his hands, with that +0.45 SG OTT giving him the length needed on this layout. The T20 here last year proves he can handle the venue, but recent form is concerning with just one made cut in four starts. At +16249, you're betting pure course correlation over current ability. |
+16249 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T20
2024NA
2023NA
Win+16249
Top 5+2566
Top 10+1105
Recent Form
Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T40 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T29 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T48
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.19
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 52 |
Joel Dahmen
USA - OWGR #-
LONGSHOT
|
That T9 at Cognizant Classic stands out like a beacon in an otherwise brutal recent run, and the enormous course fit adjustment (+0.303) suggests Bay Hill could unlock something special. His driving distance (+0.44 SG OTT) fits the venue perfectly, making +16660 odds potentially exploitable if he can find his Cognizant form. The model gives him better odds than the market implies. |
+16660 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+16660
Top 5+2654
Top 10+1185
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • Cognizant Classic (Feb 2026): T9 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.30
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 53 |
Sam Stevens
USA - OWGR #50
LONGSHOT
|
Consecutive missed cuts here tell the whole story - Bay Hill just doesn't fit his game despite solid overall numbers (+0.85 SG Total). The negative course fit adjustment (-0.051) confirms what his track record already suggests, and that T16 at Riviera feels like fool's gold. World #50 deserves respect, but not at this venue. |
+16945 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023NA
Win+16945
Top 5+2658
Top 10+1155
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T16 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T55 • WM Phoenix Open (Feb 2026): T35
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 54 |
Jason Day
USA - OWGR #62
LONGSHOT
|
The putting stroke still works (+0.34 SG) and around-the-green skills remain elite (+0.31), but consecutive missed cuts including here last week signal major red flags. His T35 in 2024 at least shows he can navigate Bay Hill when healthy, though the approach play has fallen off a cliff (-0.02 SG). At +17092, you're buying the name more than the current form. |
+17092 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T35
2023NA
Win+17092
Top 5+2713
Top 10+1179
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): MC • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): MC • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 55 |
Taylor Pendrith
USA - OWGR #43
LONGSHOT
|
Solid all-around game (+0.79 SG Total) meets a brutal course fit mismatch (-0.191 adjustment) that explains his spotty Bay Hill history. That T38 last week shows he's at least making weekends, but three years of data here suggest this venue neutralizes his strengths. The +18193 price reflects the obvious - he's better suited for different courses. |
+18193 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T38
2024MC
2023T69
Win+18193
Top 5+2849
Top 10+1247
Recent Form
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard (Mar 2026): T38 • The Genesis Invitational (Riviera) (Feb 2026): T45 • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (Feb 2026): T34
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.19
Course History+0.01
| |||
Daily Matchups coming soon.