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// BETTING PREVIEW - SEPTEMBER 10-13
Amgen Irish Open
September 10-13, 2026 | County Clare, Ireland
Cosmos Research from Cosmos Golf — the same brand as Golf in the Cosmos. Amgen Irish Open.
Wear it this week: the Astronaut Golf Towel from Cosmos Golf / Golf in the Cosmos, Season One.
⛅ Tournament Weather Forecast
Expect partly cloudy skies with highs in the 63F range and breezy conditions up to 21 mph throughout the week. Some rain is possible, making for challenging scoring conditions.
🌬️ Wind by Day — Morning & Afternoon
| Day | 8 AM | 12 PM |
|---|---|---|
| Thu | ↑ 15 mph S G24 | ↑ 18 mph SSW G29 |
| Fri | ↑ 10 mph WNW G16 | ↑ 10 mph W G17 |
| Sat | ↑ 21 mph SSW G35 | ↑ 20 mph SW G32 |
| Sun | ↑ 8 mph W G12 | ↑ 12 mph WSW G20 |
🌊 Mornings play calmer (~14 vs ~15 mph) — a slight edge to AM-wave tee times.
Miller
- Win:Patrick Reed—
- Top 5:——
- Top 10:——
Kevin
- Win:Rory McIlroy—
- Top 5:——
- Top 10:——
Rory McIlroy is the clear class of the field at Trump International Golf Links & Hotel Ireland, with the defending champion's +1.93 SG Total ranking first among all 138 players and the model projecting a 12.2% win probability — nearly double Jon Rahm's 7.1% in second. Below the top two, Robert MacIntyre (+1.00 SG Total, #2 putter in the field) and Joaquin Niemann (#1 ball-striker at +0.63 SG Approach) separate themselves as the strongest contenders in the 25/1-range tier. For those hunting further down the board, Eugenio Chacarra's +0.86 SG Total and 20.3% top-10 probability make him the model's standout mid-range profile, while Patrick Reed (+0.55 SG Total, 17.6% top-10 probability) leads the longshot tier with a legitimate statistical case.
McIlroy Towers Over This Field
The defending champion posts a +1.93 SG Total — 0.35 strokes per round clear of Rahm in second — and the model gives him a 12.2% win probability. His runner-up finish in 2024 and victory in 2025 confirm elite course history at this event, and he ranks #2 in the field in SG Approach (+0.62).
Rory McIlroy
Rahm's Ball-Striking Fits Links Challenge
Jon Rahm's +1.58 SG Total ranks second in the field and the model projects a 7.1% win probability. While he lacks course history at this event, his all-around game profile is the strongest behind McIlroy and positions him as a clear second choice.
Jon Rahm
MacIntyre's Putter Elevates His Profile
Robert MacIntyre ranks #2 in the field in SG Putting (+0.45) and carries a +1.00 SG Total with a 4.1% model win probability. His T5 at the 2024 Irish Open adds event pedigree, and his Scottish links background makes the projected top-10 rate of roughly 1-in-4 look well-supported by skillset.
Robert MacIntyre
Niemann Leads Every Ball-Striker Metric
Joaquin Niemann's +0.63 SG Approach is the best mark in the entire 138-player field, and his +1.33 SG Total ranks third overall. The model projects a 4.0% win probability, placing him in the same tier as MacIntyre and Hatton despite no course history data — his iron play drives that projection entirely.
Joaquin Niemann
Chacarra Is Mid-Range Model Darling
At +4494 fair odds, Eugenio Chacarra carries a +0.86 SG Total (just below Hatton's +0.90) and a 20.3% top-10 probability. He ranks #5 in SG Approach at +0.58, suggesting his iron play can hold up on a demanding links layout — a strong profile relative to others in his pricing tier.
Eugenio Chacarra
Wallace's Quiet SG Profile Stands Out
Matt Wallace's +0.94 SG Total ranks fifth in the entire field — ahead of Hatton, MacIntyre, and Lowry — yet his fair odds sit at +2790. The model projects a 25.9% top-10 probability and 3.5% win probability, making him statistically the strongest profile in the 25/1-to-35/1 range.
Matt Wallace
Lowry Combines Iron Play and History
Shane Lowry ranks #4 in the field in SG Approach (+0.59) and has consistent Irish Open history with finishes of T15 (2025) and T12 (2024). His +0.82 SG Total and 22.4% top-10 probability reflect a player whose skillset — particularly approach play — is tailor-made for links conditions at Trump International Golf Links & Hotel Ireland.
Shane Lowry
Hojgaard's Flat Stick Fuels Repeat Bid
The 2024 champion Rasmus Hojgaard ranks #3 in SG Putting at +0.44 and the model projects a 2.6% win probability. While his +0.65 SG Total sits lower than several peers in his tier, winning this event last year adds an intangible familiarity factor the model may not fully capture in course fit adjustments.
Rasmus Hojgaard
Reed Leads Longshot Tier on Substance
Patrick Reed's +0.55 SG Total and 17.6% top-10 probability are the strongest marks among players at +5888 or longer. His all-around game and big-event experience give him a more credible profile than most at the back of the board.
Patrick Reed
McKibbin Worth Monitoring as Local Talent
Northern Ireland's Tom McKibbin posts a +0.74 SG Total and a 19.7% top-10 probability at +4632 fair odds. The 22-year-old's familiarity with links golf in his homeland and his solid overall strokes-gained profile make him a compelling watch in the 45/1 tier for top-10 and top-20 placements.
Tom McKibbin
📈 Biggest Climber · Trump International Golf Links & Hotel Ireland
Joost Luiten
2024 T45 → 2025 T15
▲30spots
🔥 Form Climbers · Last 3 Starts
Joe Dean
Danish Golf Championship T39 → Nexo Championship T24 → Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo 1
▲38spots
Bernd Wiesberger
Danish Golf Championship T39 → Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo T37 → Omega European Masters T4
▲35spots
Alejandro Del Rey
Danish Golf Championship T70 → Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo T46 → Omega European Masters T44
▲26spots
Complete Betting Board
| # | Player | Why They Could Win | Win Odds GolfData API |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Rory McIlroy
NIR - OWGR #2
FAVORITE
|
The defending champion is also the world's No. 2, and the model has him as the clear class of this field at +718 with a 12.2% win projection — nearly double anyone else. His +1.93 SG Total leads the field with the tee-to-green profile (+0.94 off the tee, +0.62 approach) that travels to a brutal links test. Add a T4 at the TOUR Championship and a runner-up at DP World, and the 47.9% top-10 number is where the real meat sits. |
+718 |
Tournament History & Odds
20251
20242
2023NA
Win+718
Top 5+196
Top 10+109
Recent Form
TOUR Championship (May 10): T4 • Hero Dubai Desert Classic (Jan 25): T33 • Dubai Invitational (Jan 18): T3 • Crown Australian Open (Dec 7): T14 • DP World Tour Championship (Nov 16): 2 • Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship (Nov 9): T3 • DP World India Championship (Oct 19): T26 • BMW PGA Championship (Sep 14): T20 • Amgen Irish Open (Sep 7): 1 • Hero Dubai Desert Classic (Jan 19): T4 • Travelers Championship (Jul 28): T6 • PGA Championship (Jul 14): T7 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 23): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
12.2%
Top 10 Probability
47.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 2 |
Jon Rahm
ESP - OWGR #14
CONTENDER
|
Rahm hasn't finished outside the top 8 in six of his last eight LIV starts, most recently a runner-up in Indianapolis and a win in Mexico City earlier this season. The +1.58 SG Total is second in this field behind only Rory, powered by a balanced +0.81 OTT and +0.41 approach profile that historically eats links courses alive. No prior starts here is the one caveat, but a 7.1% win number and 37.3% top-10 make him the cleanest non-Rory play on the board. |
+1305 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+1305
Top 5+318
Top 10+168
Recent Form
Indianapolis (Aug 23): 2 • New York (Aug 9): T41 • United Kingdom (Jul 26): T23 • Andalucia (Jun 7): 2 • Korea (May 31): T16 • Virginia (May 10): T8 • Mexico City (Apr 19): 1 • South Africa (Mar 22): 2 • Singapore (Mar 15): 5 • Hong Kong (Mar 8): 1 • Adelaide (Feb 15): 2 • Riyadh (Feb 7): 2 • Open de España presented by Madrid (Oct 12): T9
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
7.1%
Top 10 Probability
37.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 3 |
Robert MacIntyre
SCO - OWGR #18
CONTENDER
|
A Scottish lefty on a links, with a T5 here in 2024 already on the résumé — the profile writes itself. The putter is the engine at +0.45 SG, and a runner-up at the Valero Texas Open shows the ceiling is still intact even if the ball-striking (+0.16 approach) is more solid than elite. At +2328 to win with a 28.6% top-10 projection, the model prefers him as a placement play over an outright. |
+2328 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T5
2023NA
Win+2328
Top 5+489
Top 10+249
Recent Form
TOUR Championship (May 10): 28 • Valero Texas Open (Mar 9): T2 • Travelers Championship (Jul 28): T10 • PGA Championship (Jul 14): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 23): T15 • BMW Championship (Apr 7): T7 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Mar 10): WD • U.S. Open (Mar 3): T39 • the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Dec 10): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (Oct 15): T42 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Aug 6): T32 • The Sentry (Jul 2): T15 • Masters Tournament (May 14): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.1%
Top 10 Probability
28.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 4 |
Joaquin Niemann
CHI - OWGR #42
CONTENDER
|
Fresh off a win in New York and coming in with 1-3-T7 in his last four LIV starts before a T17 in Indianapolis — nobody in the field is hotter. The ball-striking is legit for this test (+0.62 OTT, +0.63 approach, both elite for the field) but the flat stick sits at a lukewarm +0.03. No links track record and zero starts here are the reasons the model stops at 4.0% to win rather than pushing him closer to Rahm. |
+2419 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+2419
Top 5+532
Top 10+271
Recent Form
Indianapolis (Aug 23): T17 • New York (Aug 9): 1 • United Kingdom (Jul 26): T28 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): T7 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): 3 • Andalucia (Jun 7): T24 • Korea (May 31): 1 • Virginia (May 10): T8 • Mexico City (Apr 19): T20 • South Africa (Mar 22): T12 • Singapore (Mar 15): 4 • Hong Kong (Mar 8): T41 • Adelaide (Feb 15): T12
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.0%
Top 10 Probability
26.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 5 |
Tyrrell Hatton
ENG - OWGR #24
CONTENDER
|
A win in Andalucia and a runner-up in the United Kingdom earlier this LIV stretch prove the links pedigree is very much alive, even if a T42 here in 2025 and a T46 at the British Masters take some shine off. The +0.35 approach and +0.19 around-the-green numbers fit a course that punishes short-game misses. The 26.1% top-10 projection is where his profile lives — a proven links grinder more than a +2608 outright threat. |
+2608 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T42
2024NA
2023NA
Win+2608
Top 5+546
Top 10+283
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T46 • Indianapolis (Aug 23): T27 • New York (Aug 9): T36 • United Kingdom (Jul 26): 2 • Andalucia (Jun 7): 1 • Virginia (May 10): 17 • Mexico City (Apr 19): T5 • South Africa (Mar 22): T38 • Singapore (Mar 15): T10 • Hong Kong (Mar 8): T45 • Adelaide (Feb 15): T3 • Riyadh (Feb 7): 47 • Hero Dubai Desert Classic (Jan 25): T33
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.7%
Top 10 Probability
26.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 6 |
Matt Wallace
ENG - OWGR #55
CONTENDER
|
The iron play is the calling card at +0.49 SG approach, backed by a stellar +0.27 around the green — a combo that plays anywhere but especially on a links where scrambling saves your card. A runner-up at the Italian Open and a T9 at the European Masters signal the game is trending. No history at Trump International is the unknown, but the 25.9% top-10 and 42.5% top-20 numbers frame him as a legitimate placement candidate at +2790. |
+2790 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+2790
Top 5+571
Top 10+286
Recent Form
Omega European Masters (Sep 6): T9 • Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T15 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): 2 • Cadillac Championship (May 3): T23 • Qatar Masters (Feb 8): T20 • Sanderson Farms Championship (Feb 7): MC • Dubai Invitational (Jan 18): T7 • BMW PGA Championship (Sep 14): T46 • Omega European Masters (Aug 31): T2 • Betfred British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 24): T33 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 17): T64 • Valero Texas Open (Mar 9): T2 • Hero Dubai Desert Classic (Jan 19): T45
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.5%
Top 10 Probability
25.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 7 |
Alex Fitzpatrick
ENG - OWGR #61
CONTENDER
|
A T9 here in 2024 is the anchor point, and a win at the Hero Indian Open plus a T4 at the TOUR Championship show he's building a real season. The +0.45 approach and +0.37 off-the-tee numbers are the strengths, though a -0.10 putter and a missed cut here in 2025 are why the model stops at 2.8% to win. The 22.3% top-10 at +3442 is the more interesting number if you want exposure. |
+3442 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T9
2023NA
Win+3442
Top 5+706
Top 10+349
Recent Form
TOUR Championship (May 10): T4 • Cadillac Championship (May 3): T9 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): 1 • Joburg Open (Mar 8): T6 • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T14 • Magical Kenya Open presented by absa (Feb 22): T23 • Qatar Masters (Feb 8): MC • Bapco Energies Bahrain Championship (Feb 1): T16 • Hero Dubai Desert Classic (Jan 25): T19 • AfrAsia Bank Mauritius Open (Dec 21): T37 • Crown Australian Open (Dec 7): T65 • BMW Australian PGA Championship (Nov 30): T19 • Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship (Nov 9): T41
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.8%
Top 10 Probability
22.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 8 |
Shane Lowry
IRL - OWGR #53
CONTENDER
|
An Irishman with legitimate links DNA and finishes of T12 and T15 in the last two editions here — the course fit is baked in. The +0.59 SG approach is genuinely elite and ranks near the top of this field, but the -0.04 putter is the reason he keeps finishing 12th-15th instead of top-5. The 22.4% top-10 projection is the honest read; the +3532 outright asks for a putting week that hasn't shown up in months. |
+3532 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T15
2024T12
2023NA
Win+3532
Top 5+710
Top 10+346
Recent Form
TOUR Championship (May 10): T13 • Cadillac Championship (May 3): T23 • Hero Dubai Desert Classic (Jan 25): T26 • Dubai Invitational (Jan 18): T3 • DP World Tour Championship (Nov 16): T11 • Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship (Nov 9): T12 • DP World India Championship (Oct 19): T3 • Open de España presented by Madrid (Oct 12): MC • BMW PGA Championship (Sep 14): T46 • Amgen Irish Open (Sep 7): T15 • Travelers Championship (Jul 28): T22 • PGA Championship (Jul 14): T44 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 23): T29
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.8%
Top 10 Probability
22.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 9 |
Harry Hall
ENG - OWGR #67
CONTENDER
|
A solo 3rd at the Omega European Masters is the freshest data point, and it slots right into a profile built on the flat stick — his +0.44 SG putting and +0.33 around the green are the class of this tier. The 2024 missed cut here is the wart, but the model still projects him at 21.9% for the top 10 and prices the top-5 ticket at +745. On a links where scrambling and lag putting travel, the short-game combo is the reason to look his way. |
+3783 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023NA
Win+3783
Top 5+745
Top 10+358
Recent Form
Omega European Masters (Sep 6): 3 • Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T30 • TOUR Championship (May 10): T17 • Cadillac Championship (May 3): T30 • Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (Oct 5): T83 • FedEx Open de France (Sep 21): MC • BMW PGA Championship (Sep 14): T13 • Valero Texas Open (Mar 9): T26 • Travelers Championship (Jul 28): T51 • PGA Championship (Jul 14): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 23): T40 • ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic (May 12): T20 • BMW Championship (Apr 7): 6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.6%
Top 10 Probability
21.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 10 |
Rasmus Hojgaard
DEN - OWGR #73
CONTENDER
|
He won this event in 2024 — the only player in this batch who can say that — and he backed it up with a runner-up at the Danish Golf Championship and a T11 at the Omega European Masters. The ball-striking is thin (-0.02 approach), but +0.26 off the tee and +0.44 putting keep him at 20.6% for the top 10. The +3791 win number is essentially a bet that the course knowledge and the putter carry a middling iron week. |
+3791 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
20241
2023NA
Win+3791
Top 5+770
Top 10+385
Recent Form
Omega European Masters (Sep 6): T11 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T2 • Sanderson Farms Championship (Feb 7): T3 • DP World Tour Championship (Nov 16): 7 • Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship (Nov 9): T23 • BMW PGA Championship (Sep 14): MC • Omega European Masters (Aug 31): T2 • Betfred British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 24): T13 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 17): 2 • Hero Dubai Desert Classic (Jan 19): T14 • PGA Championship (Jul 14): T65 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 23): T43 • ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic (May 12): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.6%
Top 10 Probability
20.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 11 |
Nicolai Hojgaard
DEN - OWGR #39
CONTENDER
|
The twin brother comparison is inescapable, but Nicolai's game is the mirror image — +0.28 approach and +0.29 off the tee driving a 0.66 SG total, with the putter (+0.01) as the weak link. A T2 at the British Masters and T3 at Abu Dhabi last fall show the ceiling on this side of the ledger, though a missed cut at the Omega European Masters is a real concern. The model gives him a 20.1% top-10 shot at +397. |
+4010 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024MC
2023NA
Win+4010
Top 5+786
Top 10+397
Recent Form
Omega European Masters (Sep 6): MC • Cadillac Championship (May 3): T23 • Sanderson Farms Championship (Feb 7): MC • Hero Dubai Desert Classic (Jan 25): T4 • Dubai Invitational (Jan 18): T52 • DP World Tour Championship (Nov 16): T11 • Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship (Nov 9): T3 • BMW PGA Championship (Sep 14): MC • Omega European Masters (Aug 31): MC • Betfred British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 24): T2 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 17): T34 • Hero Dubai Desert Classic (Jan 19): T65 • Travelers Championship (Jul 28): T14
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.4%
Top 10 Probability
20.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 12 |
Jordan Smith
ENG - OWGR #74
CONTENDER
|
A T7 here in 2024 pairs with a tour-leading (in this tier) +0.66 SG off the tee and +0.36 approach — the ball-striking profile fits a links test as well as anyone in this range. The MC at this event in 2025 is a caution flag, and the short game (-0.16 ARG, -0.09 putting) is a real drag. But at a 32.9% top-20 clip and +906 for the top 5, the tee-to-green resume is the sell. |
+4456 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T7
2023NA
Win+4456
Top 5+906
Top 10+439
Recent Form
Cadillac Championship (May 3): T55 • Nedbank Golf Challenge in honour of Gary Player (Dec 7): T21 • DP World Tour Championship (Nov 16): T20 • Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship (Nov 9): T15 • DP World India Championship (Oct 19): T50 • Open de España presented by Madrid (Oct 12): T62 • Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (Oct 5): T5 • FedEx Open de France (Sep 21): WD • BMW PGA Championship (Sep 14): T24 • Amgen Irish Open (Sep 7): MC • Omega European Masters (Aug 31): T17 • Betfred British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 24): T33 • Nexo Championship (Aug 10): 6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.2%
Top 10 Probability
18.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 13 |
Eugenio Chacarra
ESP - OWGR #57
CONTENDER
|
The +0.58 SG approach is the best iron number in this entire batch, and it's paired with +0.40 off the tee for a 0.86 SG total that outranks every VALUE-tier name here. No prior starts at Trump International is the obvious asterisk, and the LIV schedule means the sample is thin, but the model still lands him at 20.3% for the top 10. If the irons show up on a windy links, the +832 top-5 price is where the profile lives. |
+4494 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+4494
Top 5+832
Top 10+392
Recent Form
Tulum Championship at PGA Riviera Maya (May 4): T9 • PGA Championship (Jul 14): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 10): T52 • The Open Championship (Jul 30): T46 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 23): T21
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.2%
Top 10 Probability
20.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 14 |
Tom McKibbin
NIR - OWGR #135
CONTENDER
|
The Northern Irishman with home-soil comfort — T20 here in 2025 and T30 in 2024 — is in the best form of the group, riding T12-T6-T20 across his last three LIV starts. The all-around SG profile is clean with no negative categories, and the 19.7% top-10 model number is legitimate. His OWGR of 135 undersells him because of the LIV schedule; the +407 top-10 ticket is the sharper way to play it. |
+4632 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T20
2024T30
2023NA
Win+4632
Top 5+852
Top 10+407
Recent Form
Indianapolis (Aug 23): T12 • New York (Aug 9): T6 • United Kingdom (Jul 26): T20 • Andalucia (Jun 7): T21 • Korea (May 31): T23 • Virginia (May 10): T21 • Mexico City (Apr 19): T5 • South Africa (Mar 22): T24 • Singapore (Mar 15): T21 • Hong Kong (Mar 8): T24 • Adelaide (Feb 15): T44 • Riyadh (Feb 7): T17 • Michigan (Team Final—Stroke Play) (Aug 24): n/a
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.1%
Top 10 Probability
19.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 15 |
Angel Ayora
ESP - OWGR #118
VALUE
|
T5 at this event in 2025 as a rookie, then a T4 at the Omega European Masters to prove it wasn't a fluke — the 22-year-old Spaniard has legitimate momentum. The 0.52 SG total is the thinnest in this batch and the short game is a real drag, but +0.35 approach on a course he's already navigated to a top 5 is a defensible angle. At +1084 for a top-5 repeat, the model is buying the course fit more than the overall profile. |
+5614 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T5
2024NA
2023NA
Win+5614
Top 5+1084
Top 10+522
Recent Form
Omega European Masters (Sep 6): T4 • Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T46 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T46 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): MC • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): 5 • KLM Open (Jun 7): T3 • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): MC • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T18 • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): T33 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): T11 • Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO (Mar 22): T28 • Joburg Open (Mar 8): T18 • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T9
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
16.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 16 |
Patrick Reed
USA - OWGR #35
VALUE
|
Two LIV wins earlier this year at Dubai and Qatar plus a runner-up in Bahrain form the résumé, and the +0.42 approach and +0.28 around the green are exactly the skills that hold up when Trump International bares its teeth. The T50 here in 2025 is a real strike against the course fit, and recent LIV form has cooled to T11-T55-T30. The +468 top-10 price is where his 17.6% model probability actually shows up — the win number at +5888 is a stretch. |
+5888 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T50
2024NA
2023NA
Win+5888
Top 5+1000
Top 10+468
Recent Form
Omega European Masters (Sep 6): T11 • Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T55 • Nexo Championship (Aug 23): T30 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): MC • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T45 • Joburg Open (Mar 8): T10 • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T29 • Qatar Masters (Feb 8): 1 • Bapco Energies Bahrain Championship (Feb 1): T2 • Hero Dubai Desert Classic (Jan 25): 1 • Dubai Invitational (Jan 18): 26 • DP World Tour Championship (Nov 16): T28 • Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship (Nov 9): T49
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.7%
Top 10 Probability
17.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 17 |
Oliver Lindell
FIN - OWGR #109
VALUE
|
A solo 2nd at the Danish Golf Championship anchors a run of six top-15s in his last eight European starts, and the T7 at this event in 2025 proves the links profile travels. The +0.60 SG approach is legitimately elite for a longshot tier, and the model prices him at 16.8% to crack the top 10 (+497). Driving is a genuine weakness at -0.28, which is why the win number sits out at +6086 rather than closer — but as a top-20 dart at 30.9%, the profile is real. |
+6086 |
Tournament History & Odds
20257
2024NA
2023NA
Win+6086
Top 5+1059
Top 10+497
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T15 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T2 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): T13 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T6 • KLM Open (Jun 7): 2 • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T47 • Soudal Open (May 24): T30 • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): T10 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T43 • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): T33 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): T13 • Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO (Mar 22): T14 • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T29
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
16.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 18 |
Brooks Koepka
USA - OWGR #122
VALUE
|
A solo 4th at the FedEx Open de France is the only meaningful data point on a résumé that's otherwise been a slow decay, and the MC at this event in 2025 is a warning worth respecting. The ball-striking is still there on paper (+0.33 off the tee, +0.29 approach), but -0.12 putting and -0.01 around the green cap the ceiling. The model gives him 14.1% to reach the top 10 at +607, which is the honest read — a live number for placement, thin for the outright at +6552. |
+6552 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+6552
Top 5+1260
Top 10+607
Recent Form
Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (Oct 5): T15 • FedEx Open de France (Sep 21): 4 • BMW PGA Championship (Sep 14): MC • Amgen Irish Open (Sep 7): MC • Michigan (Team Final—Stroke Play) (Aug 24): n/a • Indianapolis (Aug 17): 50 • Chicago (Aug 10): T29 • United Kingdom (Jul 27): T47 • Andalucia (Jul 13): T32 • Virginia (Jun 8): T33 • Korea (May 4): T17 • Mexico City (Apr 27): T30 • Miami (Apr 6): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
14.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 19 |
Casey Jarvis
RSA - OWGR #69
VALUE
|
Two DP World Tour wins earlier this season at the South African Open and Kenya Open are the headline, but the summer has been rough — three missed cuts in his last five starts and a T30 at the Omega European Masters most recently. Course comfort is real with a T20 in 2025 and T26 in 2024 here, and +0.32 in both off-the-tee and approach is a clean ball-striking base. The -0.16 short game and -0.13 putter cap the ceiling, which is why the model lands at 15.2% for a top 10 (+560) rather than anything sharper on the outright. |
+6749 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T20
2024T26
2023NA
Win+6749
Top 5+1200
Top 10+560
Recent Form
Omega European Masters (Sep 6): T30 • Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): MC • Nexo Championship (Aug 23): MC • BMW International Open (Jul 5): T38 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): MC • KLM Open (Jun 7): MC • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): MC • Soudal Open (May 24): T22 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): T13 • Joburg Open (Mar 8): T2 • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): 1 • Magical Kenya Open presented by absa (Feb 22): 1 • NTT DATA Pro-Am brought to you by Standard Bank (Feb 15): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
15.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 20 |
Thomas Detry
BEL - OWGR #87
VALUE
|
The T12 here in 2025 is the anchor, and the LIV form has been quietly excellent — T10 at Indianapolis, T5 at Andalucia, T5 at Mexico City, plus a runner-up in Hong Kong earlier this year. What's carrying the profile is a +0.47 putter, which is unusual for him and the reason the model gives him 14.9% to reach the top 10 at +571. The -0.09 approach is the drag on the outright at +7226 — the projection is a placement play, not a winner's profile this week. |
+7226 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T12
2024MC
2023NA
Win+7226
Top 5+1222
Top 10+571
Recent Form
Omega European Masters (Sep 6): T30 • Indianapolis (Aug 23): T10 • New York (Aug 9): T17 • United Kingdom (Jul 26): T31 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): MC • Andalucia (Jun 7): T5 • Korea (May 31): T41 • Soudal Open (May 24): T53 • Virginia (May 10): T6 • Mexico City (Apr 19): T5 • South Africa (Mar 22): T3 • Singapore (Mar 15): T15 • Hong Kong (Mar 8): 2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
14.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 21 |
Matthew Jordan
ENG - OWGR #212
VALUE
|
Runner-up at the Nexo Championship and T2 at the Danish Golf Championship in consecutive starts is legitimate form, and the OWGR #212 tag understates where his game actually is right now. The problem is this specific course — MC in both 2024 and 2025 — and a -0.23 putter that's the worst mark of anyone in this batch. The model lands at 13.4% for a top 10 (+647) and 25.8% for a top 20; the win price at +7642 is honest given the history mismatch. |
+7642 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023NA
Win+7642
Top 5+1398
Top 10+647
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T26 • Nexo Championship (Aug 23): 2 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T2 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): T38 • KLM Open (Jun 7): MC • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T40 • Soudal Open (May 24): MC • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T43 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): T29 • Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO (Mar 22): T28 • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T20 • Magical Kenya Open presented by absa (Feb 22): 7 • Qatar Masters (Feb 8): T32
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
13.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 22 |
Daniel Hillier
NZL - OWGR #100
VALUE
|
Solo 2nd at the Husqvarna British Masters is the recent headline, and the New Zealand Open title back in March plus a runner-up at the Dubai Invitational give the season three genuine peaks. The +0.46 off-the-tee is the second-best driving number in this tier, which matters at a links track, and +0.24 approach backs it. The -0.32 short game is the leak the model can't ignore, capping the outright at +8063 — the top-10 number at +643 (13.5%) is where the profile actually lives. |
+8063 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T29
2024MC
2023NA
Win+8063
Top 5+1403
Top 10+643
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T2 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): MC • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): MC • KLM Open (Jun 7): T14 • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T7 • Soudal Open (May 24): MC • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): MC • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): MC • 105th New Zealand Open presented by Millbrook Resort (Mar 1): 1 • Qatar Masters (Feb 8): T20 • Bapco Energies Bahrain Championship (Feb 1): T4 • Hero Dubai Desert Classic (Jan 25): T26 • Dubai Invitational (Jan 18): 2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
13.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 23 |
Sepp Straka
AUT - OWGR #34
VALUE
|
The highest-ranked player in this batch at OWGR #34, but the schedule has been alarmingly light — a T12 at the Austrian Alpine Open in May is the most recent competitive round of note, with the FedEx run ending at the TOUR Championship. The +0.36 approach is a top-tier iron number and drives the model's 12.1% top-10 projection (+724). No prior starts here is the wildcard on a course this quirky, and rust plus a cold putter (-0.12) is why the outright sits at +8315 despite the pedigree. |
+8315 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+8315
Top 5+1549
Top 10+724
Recent Form
Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T12 • TOUR Championship (May 10): 30 • Cadillac Championship (May 3): T4 • Valero Texas Open (Mar 9): MC • Travelers Championship (Jul 28): 72 • PGA Championship (Jul 14): MC • BMW Championship (Apr 7): T33 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Mar 10): T34 • U.S. Open (Mar 3): MC • the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Dec 10): T40 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Aug 6): T12 • The Sentry (Jul 2): T15 • Masters Tournament (May 14): T41
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
12.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 24 |
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
DEN - OWGR #85
VALUE
|
The Australian Open title in December and a T3 at the DP World Tour Championship a month earlier were the peak; everything since has been a slide, with three missed cuts in his last four starts including the MC at the Omega European Masters. MC finishes at this event in both 2024 and 2025 make the course fit a genuine question. The +0.41 off-the-tee is the one skill keeping the model interested at 12.6% for a top 10 (+693), but at +8471 to win the profile is thin and trending the wrong way. |
+8471 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023NA
Win+8471
Top 5+1492
Top 10+693
Recent Form
Omega European Masters (Sep 6): MC • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): MC • BMW International Open (Jul 5): 56 • Hero Dubai Desert Classic (Jan 25): T45 • Dubai Invitational (Jan 18): 19 • Crown Australian Open (Dec 7): 1 • BMW Australian PGA Championship (Nov 30): MC • DP World Tour Championship (Nov 16): T3 • Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship (Nov 9): T23 • Genesis Championship (Oct 26): T65 • Open de España presented by Madrid (Oct 12): T5 • Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (Oct 5): T50 • BMW PGA Championship (Sep 14): T20
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
12.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 25 |
Jacob Skov Olesen
DEN - OWGR #120
VALUE
|
A T2 at the Husqvarna British Masters caps a summer that also includes T16 at the Nexo Championship and T9 at the Danish Golf Championship — three straight top-16s heading in. He's also proven he can handle this exact venue, with 8th in 2025 and T12 in 2024 the only two times he's teed it up. The model gives him a 12.9% top-10 shot at +672, and with SG Putting leading his profile at +0.32, the links surface plays to his strength. |
+8634 |
Tournament History & Odds
20258
2024T12
2023NA
Win+8634
Top 5+1468
Top 10+672
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T2 • Nexo Championship (Aug 23): T16 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T9 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): MC • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T41 • KLM Open (Jun 7): T55 • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T26 • Soudal Open (May 24): T2 • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): MC • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T4 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): T16 • Joburg Open (Mar 8): T36 • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T63
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
12.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 26 |
Ewen Ferguson
SCO - OWGR #193
VALUE
|
The tee-to-green profile is quietly the story here — +0.21 OTT and +0.09 Approach against a field where most longshots are one-dimensional. Course history is a mixed bag (MC in 2025, T36 in 2024), but recent form shows T9 at the Danish Golf Championship and T15 at the Husqvarna British Masters, and there's a T4 at the Turkish Airlines Open on the ledger. At +691 to crack the top 10, the model sees a 12.6% chance — respectable but not screaming, and the OWGR #193 tag reflects why he's this deep on the board. |
+8909 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T36
2023NA
Win+8909
Top 5+1536
Top 10+691
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T15 • Nexo Championship (Aug 23): T24 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T9 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): MC • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T19 • KLM Open (Jun 7): WD • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T17 • Soudal Open (May 24): MC • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): T25 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T4 • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): MC • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): T6 • Joburg Open (Mar 8): T57
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
12.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 27 |
Antoine Rozner
FRA - OWGR #226
VALUE
|
Approach play is the calling card at +0.30 SG, and he pairs it with +0.27 off the tee — the cleanest ball-striking profile among the longshots in this batch. Form is steady rather than spiky: T15 at the Omega European Masters, T21 at the Husqvarna British Masters, T13 at the Danish Golf Championship, plus a T8 at the Volvo China Open earlier in the year. The -0.18 putter is the ceiling cap, and at +9046 to win with a 1.09% model chance, the top-10 number at +691 is where the profile actually lives. |
+9046 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T57
2023NA
Win+9046
Top 5+1537
Top 10+691
Recent Form
Omega European Masters (Sep 6): T15 • Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T21 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T13 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T60 • KLM Open (Jun 7): T55 • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T26 • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): T17 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T29 • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): T8 • Joburg Open (Mar 8): MC • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T24 • Magical Kenya Open presented by absa (Feb 22): T14 • Qatar Masters (Feb 8): T9
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
12.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 28 |
Sergio Garcia
ESP - OWGR #144
VALUE
|
No prior starts here, which is the wrinkle — but the LIV form has been legitimately sharp, with T3 at Indianapolis, T11 at New York, 4th at Andalucia, and a solo 2nd at Virginia all on the ledger. The SG profile is modest at +0.17 total with a -0.15 putter dragging it down, and OWGR #144 reflects the LIV ranking penalty more than the actual game. The model lands him at 12.1% for a top 10, and the +723 there is a fairer reflection of the profile than the +9349 outright. |
+9349 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9349
Top 5+1608
Top 10+723
Recent Form
Omega European Masters (Sep 6): T30 • Indianapolis (Aug 23): T3 • New York (Aug 9): T11 • United Kingdom (Jul 26): T42 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): MC • Andalucia (Jun 7): 4 • Korea (May 31): T29 • Virginia (May 10): 2 • Mexico City (Apr 19): T39 • South Africa (Mar 22): T17 • Singapore (Mar 15): T35 • Hong Kong (Mar 8): T8 • Adelaide (Feb 15): T37
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
12.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 29 |
Laurie Canter
ENG - OWGR #150
VALUE
|
The ball-striking numbers are the pitch: +0.29 OTT and +0.30 Approach, both elite for this range of the board. LIV form has been strong lately with T5 at Indianapolis, T11 at New York, and T7 at the United Kingdom event, and course history here reads T17 in 2024 and T42 in 2025 — competent, not thrilling. The -0.25 putter is the anchor and it's why the model sits him at 0.88% to win despite the tee-to-green work; the +815 top-10 is the cleanest way to play the profile. |
+11285 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T42
2024T17
2023NA
Win+11285
Top 5+1818
Top 10+815
Recent Form
Indianapolis (Aug 23): T5 • New York (Aug 9): T11 • United Kingdom (Jul 26): T7 • Andalucia (Jun 7): T37 • Korea (May 31): T12 • Virginia (May 10): T46 • Mexico City (Apr 19): T25 • South Africa (Mar 22): T17 • Singapore (Mar 15): T42 • Hong Kong (Mar 8): T31 • Adelaide (Feb 15): 53 • Riyadh (Feb 7): T37 • Bapco Energies Bahrain Championship (Feb 1): T59
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
10.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 30 |
David Puig
ESP - OWGR #78
VALUE
|
First look at this venue, and the SG profile is genuinely odd — a +0.44 putter carrying a -0.36 Approach number, which is a strange combination for a links test. LIV form has been consistent (T5 at Andalucia, solo 2nd at Mexico City, T12 at Virginia, T12 at the United Kingdom event) and OWGR #78 is the highest ranking in this longshot batch by a wide margin. The model gives him 10.6% for a top 10 at +844, but the iron numbers are a legitimate red flag on a course where approach play tends to separate. |
+11372 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+11372
Top 5+1857
Top 10+844
Recent Form
Omega European Masters (Sep 6): T30 • Indianapolis (Aug 23): 49 • New York (Aug 9): T22 • United Kingdom (Jul 26): T12 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T48 • Andalucia (Jun 7): T5 • Korea (May 31): T16 • Virginia (May 10): T12 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T18 • Mexico City (Apr 19): 2 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): MC • South Africa (Mar 22): T6 • Singapore (Mar 15): T21
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
10.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 31 |
Joe Dean
ENG - OWGR #149
VALUE
|
Winner at the Husqvarna British Masters — that's the headline, and it's backed by T3 at the KLM Open and T9 at the BMW International Open earlier in the summer. The catch: the underlying SG profile is negative across the board (-0.05 total, -0.21 Approach) and the course history here is ugly, with an MC in 2025 and 65th in 2024. The model still respects the form enough to give him 9.7% for a top 10 at +935, but the profile screams regression more than repeat. |
+11619 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
202465
2023NA
Win+11619
Top 5+2067
Top 10+935
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): 1 • Nexo Championship (Aug 23): T24 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T39 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): T9 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): MC • KLM Open (Jun 7): T3 • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T12 • Soudal Open (May 24): T47 • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): T64 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T61 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): T34 • Joburg Open (Mar 8): T62 • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T14
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
9.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 32 |
Calum Hill
SCO - OWGR #156
VALUE
|
The one bright spot in the profile is a +0.32 putter, and everything else is red — -0.26 OTT, -0.21 Approach, -0.17 SG Total, and an MC at this venue in 2025. Recent form matches the metrics: MC at the Husqvarna British Masters, T67 at the Danish Golf Championship, T30 at the Omega European Masters. At +12943 with a 0.77% model win chance, this is a hot-putter-or-bust profile, and hard to build a real win path from the ball-striking numbers. |
+12943 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T30
2023NA
Win+12943
Top 5+2062
Top 10+916
Recent Form
Omega European Masters (Sep 6): T30 • Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): MC • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T67 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): T30 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T19 • KLM Open (Jun 7): T14 • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T17 • Soudal Open (May 24): T59 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): T6 • Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO (Mar 22): T45 • Joburg Open (Mar 8): MC • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T20 • Magical Kenya Open presented by absa (Feb 22): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
9.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 33 |
Thorbjorn Olesen
DEN - OWGR #161
VALUE
|
Two straight made cuts here — T20 in 2025 and T12 in 2024 — make him one of the few in this tier with genuine reps at Doonbeg. The SG profile is flat across the board (+0.05 Total, nothing above +0.07 in any category), which caps the ceiling, but a T9 at the Husqvarna British Masters says the game is in workable shape. The model gives him a 9.4% top-10 chance at +965, and that's the market where the course history actually earns its keep. A win at +12972 is a stretch — a placement dart is the more honest read. |
+12972 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T20
2024T12
2023NA
Win+12972
Top 5+2166
Top 10+965
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T9 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T39 • Sanderson Farms Championship (Feb 7): T14 • Hero Dubai Desert Classic (Jan 25): T10 • Dubai Invitational (Jan 18): T7 • Nedbank Golf Challenge in honour of Gary Player (Dec 7): T28 • Open de España presented by Madrid (Oct 12): T9 • Amgen Irish Open (Sep 7): T20 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 17): T16 • Valero Texas Open (Mar 9): T49 • Bapco Energies Bahrain Championship (Feb 2): MC • Ras Al Khaimah Championship (Jan 26): T27 • Hero Dubai Desert Classic (Jan 19): T31
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
9.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 34 |
Jayden Schaper
RSA - OWGR #92
VALUE
|
OWGR #92 is the highest ranking in this cluster, but the résumé is genuinely alarming: missed cuts in all four listed starts, including both trips to Doonbeg and a PGA Championship MC. The SG breakdown gives one thing to hold onto — +0.16 off the tee — but -0.17 Approach on a links this demanding is a red flag. The model still lands on 9.8% for a top 10 based on the raw ranking, but nothing in the recent results supports actually clicking the +921 ticket. |
+14323 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023NA
Win+14323
Top 5+2096
Top 10+921
Recent Form
PGA Championship (Jul 14): MC • U.S. Open (Mar 3): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 10): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 30): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
9.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 35 |
Haotong Li
CHN - OWGR #124
VALUE
|
Negative SG across four of five categories (-0.23 Total, -0.33 Around Green, -0.17 Putting) tells you why the win number sits at +14678. The one usable data point is +0.20 off the tee, which matters on a course this long, and a T18 at the Omega European Masters shows a pulse. But an MC here in 2025 and a WD in 2024 mean the venue history is actively working against him, not for him. Hard to build a case beyond a speculative top-20 sprinkle. |
+14678 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024WD
2023NA
Win+14678
Top 5+2321
Top 10+1036
Recent Form
Omega European Masters (Sep 6): T18 • Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T37 • Nexo Championship (Aug 23): MC • Nedbank Golf Challenge in honour of Gary Player (Dec 7): T10 • DP World Tour Championship (Nov 16): T8 • Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship (Nov 9): T32 • Genesis Championship (Oct 26): T21 • Open de España presented by Madrid (Oct 12): MC • Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (Oct 5): T61 • BMW PGA Championship (Sep 14): T70 • Amgen Irish Open (Sep 7): MC • Omega European Masters (Aug 31): T24 • Betfred British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 24): T8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 36 |
Tom Vaillant
FRA - OWGR #330
VALUE
|
OWGR #330 is by far the weakest ranking in this group, and the SG card backs it up — negatives across OTT (-0.10), Approach (-0.09), and a flat short game. The T42 at Doonbeg in 2025 is at least a made cut, and a T6 at the Volvo China Open in April shows the ceiling isn't zero. But the model's 8.6% top-10 read feels generous given the ball-striking profile, and at +14825 to win there's no serious path to lift the trophy. Pass unless you're building a deep top-20 portfolio. |
+14825 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T42
2024MC
2023NA
Win+14825
Top 5+2432
Top 10+1066
Recent Form
Omega European Masters (Sep 6): T18 • Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T21 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): MC • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T55 • KLM Open (Jun 7): MC • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T26 • Soudal Open (May 24): T13 • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): T31 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): MC • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): T6 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): T50 • Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO (Mar 22): T34 • Magical Kenya Open presented by absa (Feb 22): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 37 |
Nathan Kimsey
ENG - OWGR #266
LONGSHOT
|
The +0.33 SG off the tee is legitimately the best driving number in this longshot cluster, and on a links that demands positioning, that skill travels. Everything else is a problem though — -0.27 Approach, -0.17 Putting, and an MC in his only prior Doonbeg start. A T8 at the Soudal Open in May is the lone standout in a form line otherwise littered with missed cuts and WDs. The model's 8.5% top-10 read at +1081 is defensible on the driving alone, but the irons need to show up in a way they haven't all year. |
+15128 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+15128
Top 5+2462
Top 10+1081
Recent Form
Omega European Masters (Sep 6): T57 • Nexo Championship (Aug 23): T30 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): MC • BMW International Open (Jul 5): MC • KLM Open (Jun 7): WD • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T17 • Soudal Open (May 24): T8 • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): MC • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T29 • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): T6 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): MC • Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO (Mar 22): MC • Joburg Open (Mar 8): T12
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
8.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 38 |
Joakim Lagergren
SWE - OWGR #160
LONGSHOT
|
Runner-up at Doonbeg in 2025 — that's the entire pitch, and it's a real one. The SG numbers are ugly (-0.37 Total, -0.38 Approach), but the putter is live at +0.22 and the recent form has clicked with T11 at the Omega European Masters, T9 at the Husqvarna British Masters, and a solo 4th at the Italian Open. Course-specific ability matters at a venue this quirky, and the model's 8.0% top-10 chance at +1150 probably understates the fit. The top-5 number at +2556 is where the interest sits given the ceiling he already showed here. |
+15566 |
Tournament History & Odds
20252
2024NA
2023NA
Win+15566
Top 5+2556
Top 10+1150
Recent Form
Omega European Masters (Sep 6): T11 • Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T9 • Nexo Championship (Aug 23): T49 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): MC • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): 4 • KLM Open (Jun 7): MC • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): MC • Soudal Open (May 24): MC • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): T17 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T18 • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): T63 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): MC • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 39 |
Hennie Du Plessis
RSA - OWGR #126
LONGSHOT
|
No Doonbeg reps, but the résumé this year is loaded with near-misses: solo 2nd at the BMW International Open, solo 4th at the Joburg Open, T2 at the South African Open, solo 3rd at the Kenya Open. That's a player who knows how to be in the mix on Sunday. The catch is a -0.40 putter that has cost him every one of those closes, and back-to-back MCs at the Omega European Masters and Husqvarna British Masters suggest the game has cooled. The model's 7.6% top-10 at +1213 is fair — he can contend, but the flat-stick has to cooperate for once. |
+17918 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+17918
Top 5+2776
Top 10+1213
Recent Form
Omega European Masters (Sep 6): MC • Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): MC • BMW International Open (Jul 5): 2 • KLM Open (Jun 7): MC • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T40 • Soudal Open (May 24): T63 • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): MC • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): MC • Joburg Open (Mar 8): 4 • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T2 • Magical Kenya Open presented by absa (Feb 22): 3 • Qatar Masters (Feb 8): T15 • Bapco Energies Bahrain Championship (Feb 1): T16
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
7.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 40 |
Ugo Coussaud
FRA - OWGR #252
LONGSHOT
|
Back-to-back MCs at Doonbeg (2024, 2025) is a genuine warning sign — this venue and this player have not gotten along. The SG card is negative everywhere except a tiny +0.06 off the tee, and the recent stretch of T57, T30, T30 is treading water at best. The T3 at the Hero Indian Open back in March is the only top-10 in the sample, and it's fading in the rearview. At +18709 to win with 7.2% top-10 equity, there's no angle here worth the click. |
+18709 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023NA
Win+18709
Top 5+2939
Top 10+1291
Recent Form
Omega European Masters (Sep 6): T57 • Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T30 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): T30 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): MC • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T17 • Soudal Open (May 24): MC • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): T25 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T9 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): T3 • Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO (Mar 22): T17 • Joburg Open (Mar 8): MC • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T73 • Qatar Masters (Feb 8): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 41 |
Todd Clements
ENG - OWGR #202
LONGSHOT
|
Two made cuts in two Doonbeg starts (T26 in 2025, T45 in 2024) gives him a baseline of comfort at this venue, and a T11 at the Italian Open plus T18 at the European Masters suggests the summer form is trending in the right direction. The problem is the underlying profile: negative SG across the board (-0.30 Total, -0.16 OTT, -0.08 ARG) and OWGR #202. The model's 8.0% top-10 number and +1155 price is where any interest lives — the 0.51% win projection tells you the ceiling isn't really there. |
+19572 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T26
2024T45
2023NA
Win+19572
Top 5+2688
Top 10+1155
Recent Form
Omega European Masters (Sep 6): T18 • Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): MC • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T53 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): T38 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T11 • KLM Open (Jun 7): MC • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): MC • Soudal Open (May 24): MC • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): MC • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T13 • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): MC • Joburg Open (Mar 8): T28 • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
8.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 42 |
Mikael Lindberg
SWE - OWGR #147
LONGSHOT
|
A win at the Turkish Airlines Open in May and a solo 3rd at the Volvo China Open the week before is legitimate ceiling — few players in this longshot cluster have a trophy that recent. But the wheels have come off since, with three MCs in his last four starts including the European Masters and British Masters. The +0.20 SG off the tee is a plus for links golf; the -0.50 approach number is the reason the model still lands at 0.49% to win and prices him +1252 for a top 10. |
+20308 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T37
2024NA
2023NA
Win+20308
Top 5+2888
Top 10+1252
Recent Form
Omega European Masters (Sep 6): MC • Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): MC • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T53 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): MC • KLM Open (Jun 7): T60 • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): MC • Soudal Open (May 24): T17 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): 1 • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): 3 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): MC • Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO (Mar 22): T45 • Magical Kenya Open presented by absa (Feb 22): T29 • Qatar Masters (Feb 8): T36
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 43 |
Francesco Laporta
ITA - OWGR #225
LONGSHOT
|
Solo 2nd at the South African Open and a solo 4th at both the Kenya Open and Omega European Masters — that's three top-4s on the 2025 card, and the European Masters result is his most recent completed event. Doonbeg history is ugly (MC in both 2024 and 2025), which caps the ceiling here, but the +0.20 SG off the tee travels to links. Model has him at 7.2% for a top 10 (+1291), and the boom-or-bust pattern (five MCs in his last ten) is baked into that number. |
+20378 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023NA
Win+20378
Top 5+3055
Top 10+1291
Recent Form
Omega European Masters (Sep 6): T4 • Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): MC • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T53 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): MC • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T40 • Soudal Open (May 24): T17 • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): MC • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): MC • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): MC • Joburg Open (Mar 8): MC • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T2 • Magical Kenya Open presented by absa (Feb 22): 4 • Qatar Masters (Feb 8): T52
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 44 |
Alejandro Del Rey
ESP - OWGR #227
LONGSHOT
|
A T3 at the Catalunya Championship and a T8 at the Volvo China Open are the two data points that keep him relevant, but everything since has been middling — T16 at BMW International is the only top-20 in his last seven starts. The -0.37 SG Approach is the anchor holding the profile down, and it's why the model lands at 0.48% to win despite two made cuts at Doonbeg (T36 in 2024, T56 in 2025). At +1376 for a top 10, the case is thin. |
+20879 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T56
2024T36
2023NA
Win+20879
Top 5+3265
Top 10+1376
Recent Form
Omega European Masters (Sep 6): T44 • Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T46 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T70 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): T16 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): MC • KLM Open (Jun 7): MC • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): MC • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): T3 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T29 • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): T8 • Joburg Open (Mar 8): T57 • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T14 • Magical Kenya Open presented by absa (Feb 22): T56
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
6.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 45 |
Erik Van Rooyen
RSA - OWGR #205
LONGSHOT
|
A T12 here in 2024 is the best Doonbeg result in this cluster, and the +0.27 SG Putting is a genuine edge on greens where nobody's especially comfortable. The concern is the approach play (-0.42) and a 2025 schedule dotted with missed cuts at the PGA and U.S. Open. The T18 at the European Masters is a decent tune-up, but the model's 6.8% top-10 projection and +1370 price reflects a player whose ball-striking hasn't fully returned. |
+20953 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T56
2024T12
2023NA
Win+20953
Top 5+3204
Top 10+1370
Recent Form
Omega European Masters (Sep 6): T18 • Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T51 • BMW PGA Championship (Sep 14): T24 • Amgen Irish Open (Sep 7): T56 • Omega European Masters (Aug 31): MC • PGA Championship (Jul 14): MC • U.S. Open (Mar 3): MC • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Aug 6): T17
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
6.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 46 |
Bernd Wiesberger
AUT - OWGR #145
LONGSHOT
|
The most interesting form line in the longshot tier: a win at the Volvo China Open, a solo 3rd at the BMW International Open, a T4 at both the Austrian Alpine and the European Masters. That's four top-4s in 2025, and the SG card is essentially neutral (-0.03 Total) with a +0.17 around the green that plays on links. Doonbeg history is meh (T26, T63), but at +1206 for a top 10 and a model-leading 60.3% make-cut number in this group, he's the longshot whose profile actually holds up. |
+21561 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T26
2024T63
2023NA
Win+21561
Top 5+2841
Top 10+1206
Recent Form
Omega European Masters (Sep 6): T4 • Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T37 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T39 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): 3 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): MC • KLM Open (Jun 7): T21 • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T4 • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): T13 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T13 • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): 1 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): MC • Joburg Open (Mar 8): T12 • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T14
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
7.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 47 |
Thriston Lawrence
RSA - OWGR #111
LONGSHOT
|
Won the Omega European Masters in his most recent start — that's the entire hook, and it's a real one for a player ranked OWGR #111. The wrinkle is that the win came against a lighter field and the rest of the 2025 card is genuinely poor: MC at Doonbeg in 2025, MCs at Soudal, Volvo China, Joburg, and the South African Open. The -0.34 SG Total tells you the underlying game isn't where the trophy suggests, and 6.9% for a top 10 (+1348) is the model splitting the difference. |
+21639 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T26
2023NA
Win+21639
Top 5+3183
Top 10+1348
Recent Form
Omega European Masters (Sep 6): 1 • Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T30 • SunBet Challenge Times Square Casino (Aug 7): T13 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): MC • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T74 • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): MC • Soudal Open (May 24): MC • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T53 • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): MC • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): 40 • Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO (Mar 22): T6 • Joburg Open (Mar 8): MC • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
6.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 48 |
Richard Mansell
ENG - OWGR #286
LONGSHOT
|
A T7 at the Nexo Championship and a T5 at Abu Dhabi last November are the only bright spots on an otherwise brutal recent stretch — seven missed cuts in his last twelve starts including the British Masters and his 2025 Doonbeg appearance. The SG profile is the worst in this batch (-0.48 Total, -0.30 Putting, -0.22 Approach) and OWGR #286 confirms it. The model's 0.45% win number and 53.6% make-cut projection are the lowest of the group for a reason. |
+22288 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024T45
2023NA
Win+22288
Top 5+3606
Top 10+1564
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): MC • Nexo Championship (Aug 23): T7 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): MC • KLM Open (Jun 7): MC • Soudal Open (May 24): MC • Nedbank Golf Challenge in honour of Gary Player (Dec 7): T30 • DP World Tour Championship (Nov 16): 49 • Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship (Nov 9): T5 • DP World India Championship (Oct 19): MC • Open de España presented by Madrid (Oct 12): MC • Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (Oct 5): T15 • FedEx Open de France (Sep 21): MC • BMW PGA Championship (Sep 14): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
6.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 49 |
Romain Langasque
FRA - OWGR #316
LONGSHOT
|
Six straight cuts made on the DP World Tour, capped by a T23 at the Omega European Masters and a T7 at the Danish Golf Championship, give him steady-hands credibility even with a -0.16 SG Total profile. The T29 finish here at Doonbeg in 2025 shows he can navigate the wind, and the +0.19 Putting number travels well to bumpy links surfaces. The model still only gives him a 7.2% top-10 shot at +1290, which is where the interest lives if anywhere — a win path at +23066 is essentially a coin-toss on chaos. |
+23066 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T29
2024MC
2023NA
Win+23066
Top 5+3080
Top 10+1290
Recent Form
Omega European Masters (Sep 6): T23 • Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): MC • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T7 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): T16 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T11 • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T54 • Soudal Open (May 24): T53 • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): T70 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T53 • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): T52 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): MC • Joburg Open (Mar 8): T28 • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
7.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 50 |
Ignacio Elvira Mijares
ESP - OWGR #125
LONGSHOT
|
Two links-adjacent data points do the heavy lifting here: a solo 2nd at the Husqvarna British Masters and a T11 at the Omega European Masters, sandwiched around a T17 at this event in 2024 and a T29 in 2025. He's the highest-OWGR player in this cluster at #125, and the neutral iron play (-0.01 SG Approach) combined with +0.14 Putting is a decent Doonbeg archetype. The model's 15.0% top-20 number is the cleanest place to engage — the +1410 top-10 price reflects a real ceiling, but the -0.33 OTT caps the upside in genuine wind. |
+23996 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T29
2024T17
2023NA
Win+23996
Top 5+3426
Top 10+1410
Recent Form
Omega European Masters (Sep 6): T11 • Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T2 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): T16 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T25 • KLM Open (Jun 7): T11 • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): MC • Soudal Open (May 24): MC • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): T25 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): MC • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): MC • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): T34 • Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO (Mar 22): MC • Qatar Masters (Feb 8): 14
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
6.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 51 |
Andy Sullivan
ENG - OWGR #128
LONGSHOT
|
A solo 3rd at the Nexo Championship is the only reason to look, and it's flanked by MCs on either side — including at the Husqvarna British Masters and the Danish Golf Championship. Two straight missed cuts at Doonbeg (2024, 2025) are a real red flag, and the -0.27 SG Total across the board doesn't suggest a course horse hiding in this field. The T3 at the Hero Indian Open and T9 at Hainan earlier in the year prove the ceiling exists, but at +25324 to win and a 56.7% cut number, this is a place-market flyer at best. |
+25324 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023NA
Win+25324
Top 5+3656
Top 10+1525
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): MC • Nexo Championship (Aug 23): 3 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): MC • BMW International Open (Jul 5): T45 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T25 • KLM Open (Jun 7): MC • Soudal Open (May 24): T47 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): 79 • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): MC • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): T3 • Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO (Mar 22): T9 • Joburg Open (Mar 8): MC • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T29
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
6.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 52 |
Marcus Armitage
ENG - OWGR #168
LONGSHOT
|
Genuine Doonbeg pedigree in this tier — T12 in 2025 and T17 in 2024 are the two best course results in the longshot cluster, and the season also includes a solo 2nd at the Soudal Open and a T3 at the Hainan Classic. The -0.36 SG OTT is the obvious worry on a course where wind exposes short hitters, but the +0.14 Putting and +0.07 Around Green profile fits scrappy links scoring. The model's 15.1% top-20 and +1387 top-10 are the honest markets; the +25432 win price is a lottery ticket with actual course support behind it. |
+25432 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T12
2024T17
2023NA
Win+25432
Top 5+3276
Top 10+1387
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): MC • Nexo Championship (Aug 23): T38 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T26 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): T50 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T66 • KLM Open (Jun 7): T14 • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T26 • Soudal Open (May 24): T2 • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): MC • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T9 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): MC • Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO (Mar 22): T3 • Joburg Open (Mar 8): T45
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
6.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 53 |
Sam Bairstow
ENG - OWGR #393
LONGSHOT
|
Quietly stacking cuts — T10 at the Nexo Championship, T19 at the Danish Golf Championship, T21 at the Husqvarna British Masters — but the underlying -0.38 SG Approach is why the model still projects him at 0.38% to win. Two MCs at Doonbeg (2024, 2025) make the course-fit story impossible to tell honestly, and OWGR #393 reflects a player still building the resume. The 55.0% make-cut number is the only realistic engagement point; the +26449 headline is noise. |
+26449 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023NA
Win+26449
Top 5+3711
Top 10+1585
Recent Form
Omega European Masters (Sep 6): MC • Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T21 • Nexo Championship (Aug 23): T10 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T19 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): T45 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): MC • KLM Open (Jun 7): MC • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): MC • Soudal Open (May 24): MC • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): T43 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T29 • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): T43 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
5.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 54 |
Francesco Molinari
ITA - OWGR #244
LONGSHOT
|
The 2018 Open champion's iron play is still real — +0.24 SG Approach leads this cluster — but the -0.46 SG Putting is a genuine anchor and the recent form (MC at the Italian Open, MC at Catalunya, MC at Turkish) is ugly. The T4 at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic and T6 at the Hero Indian Open earlier in the year prove there's still a pulse, but two MCs at Doonbeg in 2024 and 2025 kill the course-fit angle. At +27297 with a 54.9% cut projection, this is legacy pricing on a player the model no longer believes in. |
+27297 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024MC
2023NA
Win+27297
Top 5+4087
Top 10+1683
Recent Form
DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): MC • KLM Open (Jun 7): T32 • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): MC • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): MC • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): T6 • Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO (Mar 22): T34 • Sanderson Farms Championship (Feb 7): MC • Hero Dubai Desert Classic (Jan 25): T4 • Dubai Invitational (Jan 18): T47 • Nedbank Golf Challenge in honour of Gary Player (Dec 7): T10 • BMW PGA Championship (Sep 14): MC • Amgen Irish Open (Sep 7): MC • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 17): T16
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
5.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
| |||
| 55 |
Guido Migliozzi
ITA - OWGR #274
LONGSHOT
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The solo 2nd at the Turkish Airlines Open in May is the whole file — everything since has been middling (T57 at Omega, T37 at the British Masters, MC at the BMW International). A T68 in his only Doonbeg start in 2025 doesn't help the course-fit case, and the -0.21 SG OTT plus -0.12 Approach is a rough combination for a links test. The model's 5.5% top-10 and +28202 win price are honest reflections of a player whose ceiling exists but whose median week is a made cut and nothing more. |
+28202 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T68
2024NA
2023NA
Win+28202
Top 5+4193
Top 10+1713
Recent Form
Omega European Masters (Sep 6): T57 • Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T37 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): MC • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T35 • KLM Open (Jun 7): T28 • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): MC • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): MC • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T2 • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): T13 • Magical Kenya Open presented by absa (Feb 22): MC • Qatar Masters (Feb 8): T36 • Bapco Energies Bahrain Championship (Feb 1): T47 • Hero Dubai Desert Classic (Jan 25): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.3%
Top 10 Probability
5.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj—
Course History—
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Who writes this preview? Cosmos Research is the weekly tournament desk of Cosmos Golf, the same brand as the Golf in the Cosmos podcast.
Where is the merch? Season One is on golfinthecosmos.com. This week’s pick is the Astronaut Golf Towel.