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Cosmos Research from Cosmos Golf — the same brand as Golf in the Cosmos. BMW Championship at Bellerive Country Club, St. Louis, Aug 20–23, 2026.
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// BETTING PREVIEW - AUGUST 20-23
BMW Championship
August 20-23, 2026 | St. Louis, Missouri
⛅ Tournament Weather Forecast
Expect partly cloudy skies with highs in the 85F range and light winds around 9 mph throughout the week. Some rain is possible, making for ideal scoring conditions.
🌬️ Wind by Day — Morning & Afternoon
| Day | 8 AM | 12 PM |
|---|---|---|
| Thu | ↑ 6 mph ENE G12 | ↑ 7 mph E G11 |
| Fri | ↑ 3 mph E G6 | ↑ 3 mph E G4 |
| Sat | ↑ 2 mph SSE G2 | ↑ 2 mph SW G4 |
| Sun | ↑ 6 mph ENE G11 | ↑ 6 mph SE G8 |
🌊 Little AM/PM split in the forecast — wind stays fairly even across the draw.
Crew card
- Win Wyndham Clark betonline 36.00
- Top 5 Tommy Fleetwood betonline 5.00
- Top 10 Alex Noren betonline 6.00
We do not sell picks.
Scottie Scheffler enters the BMW Championship at Bellerive Country Club as the defending champion and the model's overwhelming top projection at 17.9% win probability, powered by his field-leading marks in both SG Approach (+1.15) and SG Putting (+0.65) — a rare dual dominance. Below the top tier, Sam Burns stands out with the second-best putting in the field (+0.64 SG Putting) and a 31.9% top-10 probability backed by strong recent history in this event (T4, T2 in the last two years). Among longer-priced options, Min Woo Lee projects for a 22.0% top-10 probability with solid overall strokes gained (+1.22), making him one of the most compelling profiles in the +5000-and-above range at Bellerive.
Scheffler's Dual Dominance Is Unmatched
The defending champion leads the field in both SG Approach (+1.15) and SG Putting (+0.65), a combination no other player comes close to matching. His 17.9% model win probability is more than triple the next-best player, and his 2025 win here plus a T2 in 2023 give him the strongest BMW Championship résumé in the field.
Scottie Scheffler
Sam Burns: Elite Putter, Proven Contender
Burns ranks second in the field in SG Putting (+0.64) and carries a 31.9% top-10 probability. His BMW Championship history is exceptional — T4 in 2025 and T2 in 2024 — suggesting he consistently elevates his game for this playoff event. His overall SG Total of +1.69 ranks ninth in the field.
Sam Burns
Cameron Young's Profile Pops At Bellerive
Young combines a strong +1.71 SG Total (7th in field) with a solid +0.057 course fit for Bellerive Country Club, and his 4.2% model win probability is the fifth-highest in the field. His 11th-place finish in 2025 shows he can compete in this event, and his skill set profiles well for what Bellerive demands.
Cameron Young
Si Woo Kim: Ball-Striking Machine
Kim's +0.83 SG Approach ranks second in the entire field behind only Scheffler, and his +1.70 SG Total slots him eighth overall. The model projects a 30.0% top-10 probability despite his price sitting in the +3150 range, driven by elite iron play that should be rewarded at Bellerive Country Club.
Si Woo Kim
Gotterup's Course Fit Stands Out
Chris Gotterup carries the fourth-highest course fit score in the field at +0.063, trailing only McIlroy, Schauffele, and Young among top contenders. Combined with a 29.1% top-10 probability and +1.53 SG Total, Gotterup's skill set aligns well with what Bellerive Country Club demands — a strong profile for his pricing tier.
Chris Gotterup
Min Woo Lee Leads Longshot Projections
Among players priced at +5000 or longer, Lee's 22.0% top-10 probability is the highest, edging out even Wyndham Clark (21.6%). His +1.22 SG Total is solid, and at +5415 fair odds, he represents the kind of profile that belongs on longshot top-10 cards at Bellerive Country Club.
Min Woo Lee
Fleetwood's Course Fit Is A Concern
Despite ranking fourth in SG Total at +1.83 and carrying back-to-back strong BMW finishes (T4 in 2025, T5 in 2024), Fleetwood has a slightly negative course fit (-0.012) for Bellerive Country Club. His model win probability of 3.9% is lower than players with inferior overall numbers but better course alignment, like Cameron Young (4.2%).
Tommy Fleetwood
Hovland's Iron Play Fuels Sleeper Appeal
The 2023 BMW Championship winner ranks third in the field in SG Approach at +0.82 and carries a 26.5% top-10 probability. Viktor Hovland's +1.49 SG Total and neutral course fit (+0.006) place him firmly in the mid-tier with upside, making him a model-backed contender at fair odds of +3889.
Viktor Hovland
McIlroy Tops The Field In Course Fit
Rory McIlroy's +0.089 course fit score is the highest among all 50 players in the field at Bellerive Country Club. Combined with a 5.4% win probability and +1.76 SG Total, his game translates exceptionally well to this venue's demands. His consistency in this event — T12, T11, 4th over the last three years — adds further conviction.
Rory McIlroy
Wyndham Clark: Putter Could Unlock Upside
Clark's +0.50 SG Putting ranks fourth in the field, and at +5305 fair odds with a 21.6% top-10 probability, he profiles as a legitimate longshot contender. If his putting stays hot at Bellerive Country Club, his +1.28 SG Total has enough baseline quality to produce a high finish in this 50-man field.
Wyndham Clark
📈 Biggest Climber · Bellerive Country Club
Sepp Straka
2023 T37 → 2024 T13
▲24spots
🔥 Form Climbers · Last 3 Starts
Kurt Kitayama
The Open T40 → 3M Open T24 → FedEx St. Jude Championship T12
▲28spots
Alex Noren
The Open T18 → Wyndham Championship T7 → FedEx St. Jude Championship T3
▲15spots
Maverick McNealy
3M Open T34 → Wyndham Championship T25 → FedEx St. Jude Championship T19
▲15spots
Complete Betting Board
| # | Player | Why They Could Win | Win Odds GolfData API |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Scottie Scheffler
USA - OWGR #1
FAVORITE
|
The defending BMW champion just won the FedEx St. Jude, and the résumé at this event reads 1-T33-T2 across the last three years. World No. 1 is posting +2.94 SG Total with a field-best +1.15 approach, and the model gives him a 17.9% win probability at +458 — nearly double the next name on the board. When Scheffler shows up with the irons humming and course history like this, the top-10 price of -189 is the cleanest expression of it. |
+458 |
Tournament History & Odds
20251
2024T33
2023T2
Win+458
Top 5+111
Top 10-189
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): 1 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): 2 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T4 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 2 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T4 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T12
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
17.9%
Top 10 Probability
65.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History—
| |||
| 2 |
Rory McIlroy
NIR - OWGR #2
CONTENDER
|
Three straight top-12s at this event (T12, T11, 4th) and the strongest course-fit adjustment in this group at +0.089 — Bellerive's length rewards exactly what Rory does off the tee, where he's gaining +0.9 strokes. The concern is a 66th at the FedEx St. Jude that dragged the recent form down, but the model still gives him a 37% top-10 shot at +170. Approach numbers (+0.5) are the softest of his profile, and that's what's kept him from converting these repeated close calls. |
+1750 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T12
2024T11
20234
Win+1750
Top 5+366
Top 10+170
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): 66 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T40 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T7 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T32 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T12
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
5.4%
Top 10 Probability
37.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.09
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 3 |
Xander Schauffele
USA - OWGR #10
CONTENDER
|
A runner-up at the Rocket Classic and a T7 at the FedEx St. Jude have quietly rebuilt Xander's form after a lost stretch earlier in the year. The BMW history is rock-solid — T28, T5, T8 across three years — and the model has him at 5.29% to win, essentially tied with McIlroy and Aberg in a three-way logjam behind Scheffler. +0.69 approach and +0.78 off the tee are the drivers; the +162 top-10 is the market segment that fits his profile cleanest. |
+1790 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T28
2024T5
2023T8
Win+1790
Top 5+350
Top 10+162
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T7 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): 2 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T18 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T51 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T11 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T29
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
5.3%
Top 10 Probability
38.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 4 |
Ludvig Aberg
SWE - OWGR #17
CONTENDER
|
T2 and T7 in his only two BMW starts, and a T7 at the FedEx St. Jude and T9 at Open Championship say the game is trending back after a Scottish Open MC. Aberg carries +0.8 SG Approach and +0.76 off the tee — the exact power-plus-irons combo Bellerive rewards, reflected in his +0.057 course-fit bump. Model win% of 5.17 and a 37.7% top-10 chance at +165 puts him squarely in the second tier where the ceiling is a real win, not just a paycheck. |
+1833 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T7
2024T2
2023NA
Win+1833
Top 5+360
Top 10+165
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T7 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T9 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T55 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T17 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 39
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
5.2%
Top 10 Probability
37.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History—
| |||
| 5 |
Cameron Young
USA - OWGR #3
CONTENDER
|
World No. 3 with a runner-up at Open Championship on the résumé, but recent form is a genuine flag — T39, T61, T8, T34 in his last four starts. The model still respects the skill set: +0.76 approach, +0.7 off the tee, and a +0.057 course-fit adjustment for Bellerive's demands. The 4.23% win projection at +2261 is priced for the ceiling, not the median outcome, and his BMW history (11-T43-T15) suggests the median has been middling. |
+2261 |
Tournament History & Odds
202511
2024T43
2023T15
Win+2261
Top 5+444
Top 10+201
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T39 • Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T61 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T8 • Corales Puntacana Championship (Jul 2026): T34 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): 2 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T47 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T46
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.2%
Top 10 Probability
33.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History—
| |||
| 6 |
Tommy Fleetwood
ENG - OWGR #5
CONTENDER
|
T4 and T5 in his last two BMW appearances, a T4 at Open Championship, and a T7 at the FedEx St. Jude — Fleetwood has been the definition of consistent contender without closing. The profile is balanced across the board: +0.6 approach, +0.39 around the green, +0.35 putting, no glaring weakness. Model gives him a 34.5% top-10 shot at +189 and 3.89% to win. The course fit is slightly negative (-0.012), which is why the number sits where it does despite the form. |
+2471 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T4
2024T5
2023T25
Win+2471
Top 5+430
Top 10+189
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T7 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T4 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T13 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T11 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T11 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T4
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.9%
Top 10 Probability
34.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 7 |
Sam Burns
USA - OWGR #7
CONTENDER
|
This is the hottest player in the field not named Scheffler: T3 at FedEx St. Jude, 3rd at Open Championship, runner-up at the U.S. Open, T4 at Memorial. Burns has also gone T4-T2-T15 at the BMW across three years, so the course love is real. The +0.64 putter is elite and the +0.69 approach backs it up; the model's 31.9% top-10 chance at +214 is the type of number that ages well when a player is stacking top-5s this deep into a season. |
+2660 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T4
2024T2
2023T15
Win+2660
Top 5+479
Top 10+214
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T3 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): 3 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T12 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): 2 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T20 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T4
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.6%
Top 10 Probability
31.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 8 |
Matt Fitzpatrick
ENG - OWGR #4
CONTENDER
|
The 2023 runner-up at this event is quietly stacking results — T12 at the FedEx St. Jude, T3 at Scottish Open, solo 4th at Travelers, runner-up at the RBC Canadian Open. Fitzpatrick's +0.8 approach ties for the field's best behind Scheffler, and his +0.38 around-the-green mark adds a short-game element most contenders in this group lack. The model's 3.42% win probability and 32.8% top-10 chance land him firmly in the value tier, with the +205 top-10 price fitting the profile better than the outright. |
+2821 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T17
2024T28
2023T2
Win+2821
Top 5+474
Top 10+205
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T12 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T3 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 4 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): 22 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): 2 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T36
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.4%
Top 10 Probability
32.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 9 |
Chris Gotterup
USA - OWGR #9
CONTENDER
|
The John Deere Classic winner has turned that breakout into a genuine run — T11 at the Scottish, T18 at The Open, and now sitting at OWGR #9 with a +1.53 SG Total profile the model trusts. His only Bellerive look was a T33 at the FedEx St. Jude, so this isn't a course-history play; it's a pure ball-striking bet with a +0.7 OTT tee-to-green base. At +243 to crack the top 10 and a 29.1% model probability, the supporting markets fit the profile better than the +3038 outright. |
+3038 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T33
2024NA
2023NA
Win+3038
Top 5+550
Top 10+243
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T30 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T18 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T11 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): 1 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T27
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.2%
Top 10 Probability
29.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History—
| |||
| 10 |
Si Woo Kim
KOR - OWGR #13
CONTENDER
|
Coming off a solo 2nd at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, Si Woo has quietly assembled one of the cleanest recent stretches in the field: T6 at The Open, T9 at the Scottish, T10 at Memorial. His +0.83 SG Approach is elite, and his BMW history reads T19-T5-T31 across the last three years. The model gives him a 30.0% top-10 shot at +233, and among the sub-3.5% win tier, that iron-play foundation is as sturdy as anyone's. |
+3150 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T19
2024T5
2023T31
Win+3150
Top 5+543
Top 10+233
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): 2 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T42 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T6 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T9 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T44 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T10
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.1%
Top 10 Probability
30.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 11 |
Viktor Hovland
NOR - OWGR #14
CONTENDER
|
Won the Travelers in June and posted T7 at the FedEx St. Jude, so the form is legitimately live — even with a missed cut at The Open sandwiched in. The 2023 BMW champion (at Olympia Fields, not Bellerive) still profiles as a pure ball-striker: +0.82 SG Approach, +0.33 OTT, and a 26.5% model top-10. The Open MC and U.S. Open MC keep this from being a slam-dunk narrative, but the +641 top-5 number reflects a real ceiling when the irons show up. |
+3889 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T7
2024T26
20231
Win+3889
Top 5+641
Top 10+278
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T19 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T13 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 1 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): 3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.5%
Top 10 Probability
26.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 12 |
Hideki Matsuyama
JPN - OWGR #25
CONTENDER
|
Four straight top-15s including T7 at the FedEx St. Jude, T7 at Wyndham, T5 at Rocket, and T3 at the 3M Open — this is the most consistent form Hideki has strung together all year. The +0.66 SG Approach and +0.34 Around-Green combo is exactly the profile Bellerive rewards, and the model prices him at 2.41% to win with a 26.6% top-10 hit rate. Two prior WDs at this event muddy the history line, but the T26 in 2025 shows he can navigate the course when healthy. |
+4049 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T26
2024WD
2023WD
Win+4049
Top 5+644
Top 10+276
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T7 • Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T7 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T5 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T3 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T14 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T65 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T43
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.4%
Top 10 Probability
26.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 13 |
Patrick Cantlay
USA - OWGR #38
CONTENDER
|
Three straight BMW top-30s (T30, T13, T15) and a +0.78 SG Approach mark that quietly sits among the field's best. Recent form is steady rather than spectacular — T12 at the FedEx St. Jude, T8 at Rocket, T14 at Travelers — but the model's 26.2% top-10 projection reflects the floor more than any ceiling. At +4061 to win and +282 for a top 10, this is the classic Cantlay profile: no obvious weakness, no obvious edge, and priced accordingly. |
+4061 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T30
2024T13
2023T15
Win+4061
Top 5+668
Top 10+282
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T12 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T8 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T28 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T17
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.4%
Top 10 Probability
26.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 14 |
Justin Thomas
USA - OWGR #23
CONTENDER
|
The short-game surge is the interesting wrinkle here — +0.51 SG Around-Green leads this specific eight-player group, paired with a serviceable +0.35 approach. Recent results are mixed (T47 at the FedEx St. Jude, T14 at Wyndham, T14 at Travelers) and his BMW history at Bellerive is nonexistent, with T33 and T39 finishes elsewhere. The model gives him a 24.0% top-10 and prices the outright at +4305, which reads as a fair-but-not-compelling number unless the irons sharpen up. |
+4305 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T33
2024T39
2023NA
Win+4305
Top 5+730
Top 10+317
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T47 • Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T14 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T65 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T50 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T17 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T19
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.3%
Top 10 Probability
24.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 15 |
Collin Morikawa
USA - OWGR #11
CONTENDER
|
The T52 at the FedEx St. Jude is a flag, but the underlying iron play hasn't cracked — +0.79 SG Approach still ranks with anyone in this range, and the solo 3rd at Travelers is only two months old. BMW history is uninspiring (T33-T28-T25), and the -0.02 SG Around-Green and modest +0.14 putting mark are where the ceiling caps out. The +317 top-10 number reflects a 24.0% projection that leans entirely on the ball-striking holding up over four rounds. |
+4466 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T33
2024T28
2023T25
Win+4466
Top 5+734
Top 10+317
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T52 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T18 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 3 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T17 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T29
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.2%
Top 10 Probability
24.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 16 |
Wyndham Clark
USA - OWGR #8
VALUE
|
The T5 at the FedEx St. Jude comes on the heels of a U.S. Open victory and a solo 3rd at Memorial — this is a player peaking at exactly the right time. What's different from typical Clark is the putter: +0.5 SG Putting leads this group and is doing more work than the +0.06 off the tee. Two prior BMW top-15s (T13, T15) back the fit, and the model's 21.6% top-10 at +362 fits a profile that's more top-heavy than the +5305 outright suggests. |
+5305 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T13
2023T15
Win+5305
Top 5+851
Top 10+362
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T5 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T13 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T5 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): 1 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T11 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.9%
Top 10 Probability
21.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 17 |
Min Woo Lee
AUS - OWGR #27
VALUE
|
The runner-up at the Genesis Scottish Open is the résumé line that matters — Lee is capable of stacking rounds against elite fields, and the +1.22 SG Total profile is balanced across every category (+0.47 OTT, +0.34 APP, +0.24 ARG, +0.17 PUTT). The model still only gives him a 1.81% win chance at +5415 because the surrounding form is choppy (T55, T59, T62). The top-10 price at +355 is the honest read on a player with the ceiling but not the consistency. |
+5415 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+5415
Top 5+833
Top 10+355
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T55 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T59 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): 2 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T62 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
22.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History—
| |||
| 18 |
Kurt Kitayama
USA - OWGR #37
VALUE
|
The iron play is doing the heavy lifting here — a +0.60 SG Approach mark is the standout number in this tier, and it's paired with +0.46 off the tee for a genuinely tee-to-green profile. Kitayama has actually seen Bellerive before (T19 in '25, T41 in '23), and his T12 at the FedEx St. Jude backs up a run of six straight made cuts. The model lands at 20.1% for a top 10, which fits a player whose ceiling caps out short of the winner's circle without a putting week. |
+6004 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T19
2024NA
2023T41
Win+6004
Top 5+938
Top 10+398
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T12 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T24 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T40 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T44 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T25 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T53 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T22
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
20.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History—
| |||
| 19 |
Jake Knapp
USA - OWGR #48
VALUE
|
The T7 at the FedEx St. Jude was the announcement — Knapp arrived at a big-field event and stayed in it all four days, which changes the read on a résumé otherwise full of missed cuts (Rocket, Open, Scottish, U.S. Open). The underlying tee-to-green is legit at +0.45 OTT and +0.42 APP, and the model gives him a 19.1% top-10 chance at +423. No Bellerive history to lean on, so this is a pure form-and-strokes-gained play. |
+6098 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+6098
Top 5+997
Top 10+423
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T7 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): MC • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T13 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T55 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
19.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History—
| |||
| 20 |
Maverick McNealy
USA - OWGR #46
VALUE
|
A solo 3rd at Bellerive in the 2025 BMW is the single most relevant data point in this entire tier, even without a course history adjustment attached to it. The skill profile is unusual — most of the +1.21 SG Total comes from the short game and putter (+0.27 ARG, +0.61 PUTT) rather than ball-striking, which is a fragile way to contend. Model has him at 20.4% for a top 10 and 1.59% to win at +6176; the top-5 at +936 is where the number sits cleanest. |
+6176 |
Tournament History & Odds
20253
2024NA
2023NA
Win+6176
Top 5+936
Top 10+389
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T19 • Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T25 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T34 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T55 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T32 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T10
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
20.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 21 |
Ryan Gerard
USA - OWGR #26
VALUE
|
A runner-up at the Memorial and a T9 at the Open Championship are the two lines that put Gerard on this board, and the +1.25 SG Total is the highest in this eight-player group. The stat sheet is deep — +0.42 off the tee, +0.42 approach, +0.33 putting — and OWGR #26 is the highest ranking of any longshot here. The 44 at Bellerive in 2025 is a shrug, but the model's 20.3% top-10 projection is built on the underlying skill, not the course rep. |
+6196 |
Tournament History & Odds
202544
2024NA
2023NA
Win+6196
Top 5+944
Top 10+392
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T24 • Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): MC • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T8 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T9 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T26 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T44 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
20.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 22 |
Michael Thorbjornsen
USA - OWGR #41
VALUE
|
A win at the Rocket Classic and a T7 at the Genesis Scottish Open inside the last two months is a real profile, not a fluke stretch. The strokes-gained backs it: +0.52 off the tee leads this group, and the +0.37 APP / +0.18 ARG combo rounds out a tee-to-green build. First trip to Bellerive is the caveat, but the +0.041 course fit adjustment says the model sees the venue as neutral-to-positive. Top-10 price of +396 is the market that matches the profile. |
+6545 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+6545
Top 5+958
Top 10+396
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T47 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): 1 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T40 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T7 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T54
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
20.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History—
| |||
| 23 |
Tom Kim
KOR - OWGR #28
VALUE
|
This is the best BMW course history in the field outside the favorites — T5 in 2024, T10 in 2023, both under different Bellerive-caliber setups. Add the Genesis Scottish Open win and a solo 3rd at the U.S. Open, and the +0.71 SG Approach becomes the number that ties it all together. The 1.43% model win chance at +6893 undersells a player who's already contended at this event twice; the top-10 at +416 is where a Kim ticket makes the most sense. |
+6893 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T5
2023T10
Win+6893
Top 5+1033
Top 10+416
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T12 • Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T5 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T20 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): 1 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T46 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): 3 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T15
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
19.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History—
| |||
| 24 |
J.J. Spaun
USA - OWGR #16
VALUE
|
OWGR #16 is the highest-ranked player in this entire longshot tier, which is the tell that Spaun's résumé runs deeper than the recent form suggests. The +0.64 SG Approach is elite, and both course history (+0.013) and course fit (+0.012) grade positively after his T23 at Bellerive in 2025. The putter is the drag at -0.13, which is why the model caps him at 1.26% to win despite the ball-striking profile. Top-10 at +441 is the honest market. |
+7826 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T23
2024NA
2023NA
Win+7826
Top 5+1075
Top 10+441
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T34 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T50 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T40 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T44 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T7 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T12
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
18.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 25 |
Russell Henley
USA - OWGR #6
VALUE
|
OWGR #6 is the highest ranking in this entire longshot tier, and the BMW course history backs it up — T8 in 2023, T22 in 2024, T15 at Caves Valley in 2025. The +1.17 SG Total is built the boring way (positive marks in every category, led by +0.43 putting), and a T9 at the Open plus T12 at Travelers keeps the form line credible. The model's 18.8% top-10 number, priced at +432, is where his profile actually lives. |
+7943 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T15
2024T22
2023T8
Win+7943
Top 5+1081
Top 10+432
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T30 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T20 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T9 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T12 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T65 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T22
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
18.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 26 |
Ben Griffin
USA - OWGR #21
VALUE
|
Approach is the engine here — +0.47 SG/APP paired with +0.29 around the green gives Griffin the most complete short-to-mid game profile in this tier. A T12 at the 2025 BMW in his only prior look is a real data point, and the T10 at Travelers plus T17 at the U.S. Open show the ceiling is still there despite the Wyndham and Rocket missed cuts. Model has him at 18.7% for the top 10 (+434), which is where the ticket makes sense. |
+8086 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T12
2024NA
2023NA
Win+8086
Top 5+1091
Top 10+434
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T42 • Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): MC • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T59 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T21 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T10 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T17 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
18.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 27 |
Michael Brennan
USA - OWGR #34
VALUE
|
Won the Wyndham Championship in his most recent non-playoff start, which is why a player with zero BMW history and OWGR #34 is priced at +8882 to win. The profile is driver-first — +0.64 SG/OTT leads this group — and the +0.086 course fit adjustment is the largest positive number on this page. Around-the-green at -0.21 is the wart, and it's why the top-10 at +526 makes more sense than the outright. |
+8882 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+8882
Top 5+1300
Top 10+526
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T42 • Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): 1 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T15 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T24 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T53 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T52 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T33 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
16.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.09
Course History—
| |||
| 28 |
Nicolai Hojgaard
DEN - OWGR #40
VALUE
|
The course fit number does the heavy lifting here — +0.070 is one of the strongest adjustments in the field for a player making his Bellerive debut, driven by +0.38 SG/APP and +0.36 off the tee. Form is choppy (three missed cuts in June, a T34 at the FedEx St. Jude), but the T26 at the Scottish and T14 at Travelers show the game travels when it's on. At +525 for the top 10, the model is buying the toolkit more than the recent scoreboard. |
+9046 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9046
Top 5+1303
Top 10+525
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T34 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T61 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T26 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
16.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History—
| |||
| 29 |
Justin Rose
ENG - OWGR #12
VALUE
|
The iron play is the entire case — +0.54 SG/APP is elite for a player priced at +9379, and it's carried a real 2026 season including a T11 at the U.S. Open and T12 at the Memorial. BMW history is thin but functional (T22 in 2023, T30 at Caves Valley in 2025), and OWGR #12 is a reminder this isn't a random name in the field. Model gives him 14.6% for a top 10, which the approach profile absolutely supports. |
+9379 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T30
2024NA
2023T22
Win+9379
Top 5+1424
Top 10+584
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T39 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T25 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T11 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T12
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
14.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+-0.00
| |||
| 30 |
Adam Scott
AUS - OWGR #51
VALUE
|
Runner-up at the 2024 BMW at Castle Pines is the anchor data point, and it's why the +0.021 course history adjustment sticks despite him skipping the 2023 and 2025 editions. The recent form has quietly turned — T9 at the Open and T12 at both the Memorial and the FedEx St. Jude — behind +0.50 SG/APP and +0.35 off the tee. The putter (+0.03) is the flat number that caps the outright case, but the top-10 at +546 is a legitimate model projection. |
+9867 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T2
2023NA
Win+9867
Top 5+1364
Top 10+546
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T12 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T9 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T66 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 65 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T12
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
15.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 31 |
Sungjae Im
KOR - OWGR #62
VALUE
|
Three straight top-40s at the BMW including a solo 7th in 2023, plus a T5 at the FedEx St. Jude to open the playoffs, and suddenly a player at OWGR #62 has a real profile. The short game carries it — +0.40 SG putting and +0.34 around the green — because the approach number sits at -0.04, which is why the model caps the win equity at 0.96%. The +575 top-10 is where the ticket lives. |
+10281 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T40
2024T11
20237
Win+10281
Top 5+1476
Top 10+575
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T5 • Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T14 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T15 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T14 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T71 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T32
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
14.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 32 |
Robert MacIntyre
SCO - OWGR #19
VALUE
|
Solo 2nd at the 2025 BMW at Caves Valley is the loudest line in this tier, and it's paired with a T3 at the Scottish and T10 at Travelers inside the last two months. The FedEx St. Jude WD is the obvious red flag and the reason a +1.00 SG Total player is sitting at +10390 rather than 30-1. If the withdrawal was minor, the 15.2% top-10 (+560) is a fair way to bet the profile without touching the outright. |
+10390 |
Tournament History & Odds
20252
2024WD
2023NA
Win+10390
Top 5+1425
Top 10+560
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): WD • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T28 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T3 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T10 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T39 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T15 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
15.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 33 |
Rickie Fowler
USA - OWGR #44
VALUE
|
A T7 at the 2025 BMW is the only real reason to squint at this ticket, and it's paired with a T8 at the Rocket Classic that suggests the game isn't dead. The +0.34 SG/APP and +0.26 putter are solid but not spike-worthy for a player the model gives 14.2% to crack the top 10. The +604 top-10 number is where any Fowler interest should live — winning at +10614 with a -0.001 course fit adjustment is a genuine reach. |
+10614 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T7
2024NA
2023T25
Win+10614
Top 5+1545
Top 10+604
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T34 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T8 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T18 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T15 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T38 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
14.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.00
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 34 |
Alex Smalley
USA - OWGR #45
VALUE
|
The approach number is what makes this profile move — +0.48 SG/APP is legitimately strong, and it's backed by a T7 at the Wyndham that snapped a run of three straight missed cuts at big events. No BMW history to lean on, but the +0.008 course fit nudge and 33.8% top-20 projection suggest the model sees a clean iron-play fit at Bellerive. Top 10 at +579 is the sensible market for the profile; the +10869 win price is longshot territory for a reason. |
+10869 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10869
Top 5+1461
Top 10+579
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T24 • Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T7 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T53 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T47 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
14.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 35 |
Kristoffer Reitan
NOR - OWGR #29
VALUE
|
The +0.038 course fit adjustment is one of the more interesting numbers in this tier for a player with zero BMW reps, and it's anchored by a T6 at the Memorial that showed he can hang at a demanding setup. OWGR #29 gets you in the door, but the +0.18 SG/APP is thin and the missed cuts at the Scottish and U.S. Open are recent enough to matter. Model gives him 13.7% to reach the top 10 — that's where the ticket lives, not at +11221 to win. |
+11221 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+11221
Top 5+1598
Top 10+631
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T58 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T18 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T22 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T60 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
13.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History—
| |||
| 36 |
Alex Fitzpatrick
ENG - OWGR #70
VALUE
|
Solo 2nd at the 2023 BMW is the anchor here, and the +0.022 course fit adjustment plus +0.56 SG/APP say the ball-striking profile still travels to Bellerive. Problem is the form: T61 at both the FedEx St. Jude and Wyndham, plus a T71 at the Open, and the -0.2 putter is actively working against him. Model's 33.3% top-20 number is the honest read — the +11665 win price is asking a lot from a player whose short game has gone quiet. |
+11665 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T17
2024T28
2023T2
Win+11665
Top 5+1562
Top 10+610
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T61 • Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T61 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T71 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T7 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T20 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
14.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History—
| |||
| 37 |
Bud Cauley
USA - OWGR #42
VALUE
|
Winning the RBC Canadian Open is the headline, and the +0.90 SG Total with a legitimately elite +0.24 around the green backs up the idea that this isn't a fluke stretch. The T12 at the FedEx St. Jude and T18 at the Open keep the form line clean, though the T33 at the 2025 BMW is a modest data point at best. Model gives 14.3% to the top 10 at +597 — that's the reasonable angle, not chasing +11900 to win with only one prior BMW start on the résumé. |
+11900 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T33
2024NA
2023NA
Win+11900
Top 5+1564
Top 10+597
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T12 • Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T54 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T18 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T56 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): 1 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T22
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
14.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 38 |
Jacob Bridgeman
USA - OWGR #31
VALUE
|
The putter is the whole story — +0.46 SG/PUTT is one of the stronger flatstick profiles in this tier, and it's paired with a T19 at the 2025 BMW that at least confirms he can handle a playoff-level test. Beyond that, the résumé is a wall of T26-to-T47 finishes with no top-10 in the last eight starts, and the -0.016 course fit is a small negative. Model has him at 13.2% to reach the top 10; the +12943 to win reads exactly as it should — a stretch. |
+12943 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T19
2024NA
2023NA
Win+12943
Top 5+1748
Top 10+659
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T30 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T26 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T28 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T26 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T47 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T39 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T11 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T34
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
13.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History—
| |||
| 39 |
Alex Noren
SWE - OWGR #18
LONGSHOT
|
T3 at the FedEx St. Jude and a solo 9th at the Memorial say the game is genuinely peaking, and OWGR #18 tells you this isn't a random longshot — it's a real player at a longshot number. What's dragging the price is the -0.047 course fit adjustment, which is one of the worst in the field and offsets the T9 here in 2024. The +0.42 putter and +0.91 SG Total are elite; take the top 10 at +641 and leave the +15206 win ticket alone. |
+15206 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T9
2023NA
Win+15206
Top 5+1706
Top 10+641
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T3 • Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T7 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T18 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T55 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 9
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
13.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 40 |
Ryan Fox
NZL - OWGR #24
LONGSHOT
|
Reigning Open champion, and that alone gets the profile a longer look than the +0.62 SG Total would otherwise justify. The problem is what's happened since Portrush — T30 at the Scottish, T66 at Travelers, T58 at the FedEx St. Jude, and a 43rd here in 2025 that doesn't scream course fit despite the +0.021 adjustment. Model has him at 11.1% to reach the top 10, the weakest number in this batch; +17599 to win is priced honestly as a hard-to-see path. |
+17599 |
Tournament History & Odds
202543
2024NA
2023NA
Win+17599
Top 5+2211
Top 10+802
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T58 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): 1 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T30 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T66 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T8 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T27
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
11.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 41 |
Gary Woodland
USA - OWGR #47
LONGSHOT
|
A T7 at the U.S. Open is the anchor point that keeps this profile relevant, and the +0.53 SG Off-the-Tee gives him a real weapon at a Bellerive setup that rewards length. The +0.065 course fit adjustment is one of the friendlier marks in the longshot tier, though zero prior BMW starts and a -0.24 around the green rating cap the ceiling. The model's 10.7% top-10 number and +831 price are the honest read here — this is a top-10 dart, not a winner. |
+18027 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+18027
Top 5+2228
Top 10+831
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T42 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T10 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 71 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T7 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T36
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
10.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 42 |
Akshay Bhatia
USA - OWGR #33
LONGSHOT
|
The most balanced skill line in this tier — +0.32 SG/APP, +0.38 SG/PUTT, and a positive around-the-green mark — but the -0.31 off-the-tee is a legitimate problem at a course this long. Prior BMW reps of T26 in '25 and 45 in '24 don't inspire, and the -0.03 course fit adjustment reflects that. A T5 at Travelers shows the upside is there when the driver cooperates; the model's +1023 to crack the top 10 is where the profile actually lives. |
+21798 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T26
202445
2023NA
Win+21798
Top 5+2836
Top 10+1023
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): 68 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T5 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T17 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
8.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History—
| |||
| 43 |
Ryo Hisatsune
JPN - OWGR #69
LONGSHOT
|
Best pure ball-striking line in this cluster: +0.34 off-the-tee and +0.40 SG/APP add up to a +0.56 SG Total that outkicks his OWGR #69. The +0.027 course fit adjustment likes the driver-heavy setup, and a T9 at the John Deere shows the recent form isn't dead. The -0.16 putter is the tax, though — the model gives him 9.8% to land top-10 and +923 to get there, which is the realistic ceiling with no BMW history to lean on. |
+24191 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+24191
Top 5+2535
Top 10+923
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T52 • Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): MC • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T50 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T53 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T9 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T38 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 52
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
9.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History—
| |||
| 44 |
Eric Cole
USA - OWGR #75
LONGSHOT
|
A solo 8th at the Memorial is the peak result in the sample, and the short-game profile is genuinely elite for this tier — +0.34 around the green and +0.36 SG/PUTT is a rare combo. Prior BMW work of T25 in '23 gives him at least one data point of comfort. The -0.27 off-the-tee and -0.051 course fit adjustment are the flags at a course this long, so the +991 top-10 price is a cleaner target than chasing the +25651 win number. |
+25651 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T46
2023T25
Win+25651
Top 5+2693
Top 10+991
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T58 • Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T29 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T53 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): 70 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T39 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T38 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
9.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History—
| |||
| 45 |
J.T. Poston
USA - OWGR #35
LONGSHOT
|
Winner of the Memorial and a T4 at the U.S. Open in the same six-start window — that's a genuinely loud stretch that the +26101 win number doesn't fully reflect because of the two missed cuts sandwiched around it. Three straight made cuts at the BMW (T22, T33, T30) suggest the course doesn't hate him even if it doesn't love him. The +0.23 SG/APP and +0.19 putter give him a top-10 path the model prices at +1041, which is where the interest should sit. |
+26101 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T30
2024T33
2023T22
Win+26101
Top 5+2944
Top 10+1041
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T24 • Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T51 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 69 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T4 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 1
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
8.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History—
| |||
| 46 |
Nico Echavarria
COL - OWGR #56
LONGSHOT
|
Back-to-back T12s at the FedEx St. Jude and Wyndham are the reason he's here, and the +0.28 SG/PUTT is doing most of the heavy lifting in the skill line. The tee-to-green numbers are thin — +0.05 off-the-tee, +0.09 SG/APP — and the -0.024 course fit adjustment says Bellerive isn't an obvious match. With no prior BMW reps, the model's 8.0% top-10 and +1157 price is the realistic ask; the win equity at +26686 is largely theoretical. |
+26686 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+26686
Top 5+3204
Top 10+1157
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T12 • Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T12 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T67 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T36 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T56 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T40
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
8.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History—
| |||
| 47 |
Aaron Rai
ENG - OWGR #20
LONGSHOT
|
Best iron player in this tier at +0.43 SG/APP, and the OWGR #20 tag is the loudest in the longshot group by a wide margin. A T11 at the U.S. Open confirms the ceiling travels to big events, though three missed cuts in the last eight starts is a real form concern. The -0.037 course fit adjustment and a single BMW rep (T43 in '24) explain why the model still lands at +28746 to win despite the skill profile — top-10 at +1017 is where the case is cleanest. |
+28746 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T43
2023NA
Win+28746
Top 5+2951
Top 10+1017
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T63 • Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T29 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T11 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T19
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.3%
Top 10 Probability
9.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History—
| |||
| 48 |
Sahith Theegala
USA - OWGR #86
LONGSHOT
|
The only thing keeping this profile in play is the T15 at the 2023 BMW and a T11 at the U.S. Open — otherwise the +0.28 SG Total is the weakest number in the field and the recent form (67, T49, T53, T66) is genuinely ugly. The +0.005 course fit adjustment is essentially neutral, and OWGR #86 tells the real story of where the game is right now. Hard to see a win path at +32687; even the 6.7% top-10 number feels generous. |
+32687 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
202448
2023T15
Win+32687
Top 5+4019
Top 10+1399
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): 67 • Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T49 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T53 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T66 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T51 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T11 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T45 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T32
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.3%
Top 10 Probability
6.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 49 |
Sepp Straka
AUT - OWGR #30
LONGSHOT
|
OWGR #30 is by far the loudest credential in this longshot pack, and the T13 here in 2024 confirms Bellerive isn't a stylistic problem. The concern is a summer stretch that includes missed cuts at the Wyndham, Scottish, and U.S. Open, with a T67 at The Open sandwiched in. Iron play still grades out at +0.30 SG/APP, which is why the model gives him a 7.2% top-10 shot at +1291 — that's the market that actually fits this profile, not the +36485 outright. |
+36485 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T13
2023T37
Win+36485
Top 5+3754
Top 10+1291
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T34 • Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T67 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 72 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T40
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.3%
Top 10 Probability
7.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History—
| |||
| 50 |
Matt McCarty
USA - OWGR #71
LONGSHOT
|
The putter is doing all the heavy lifting here: +0.37 SG/PUTT is elite for a longshot, but he's giving back nearly all of it with -0.19 off-the-tee and a -0.033 course-fit adjustment that flags Bellerive as a bad stylistic match. No prior starts at this venue and a recent log of T63-T29-T50 with two Open-season missed cuts makes the +56504 outright look about right. The 15.6% top-20 number is the only market where the model sees a realistic path. |
+56504 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+56504
Top 5+6132
Top 10+1986
Recent Form
FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T63 • Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T29 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T50 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.2%
Top 10 Probability
4.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History—
| |||
Who writes this preview?
Cosmos Research is the weekly tournament desk of Cosmos Golf, the same brand as the Golf in the Cosmos podcast.
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Season One is on golfinthecosmos.com. This week’s pick is the Cosmos Golf Adidas Polo.
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