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Cosmos Research from Cosmos Golf — the same brand as Golf in the Cosmos. FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind, Memphis, August 13–16, 2026.
Wear it this week: the Moon Landing Mission Patch Hat from Cosmos Golf / Golf in the Cosmos, Season One.
// BETTING PREVIEW - AUGUST 13-16
FedEx St. Jude Championship
August 13-16, 2026 | Memphis, Tennessee
⛅ Tournament Weather Forecast
Expect sunny skies with highs in the 97F range and light winds around 5 mph throughout the week. No rain is forecast, making for ideal scoring conditions.
🌬️ Wind by Day — Morning & Afternoon
| Day | 8 AM | 12 PM |
|---|---|---|
| Thu | ↑ 10 mph SW G25 | ↑ 11 mph W G15 |
| Fri | ↑ 10 mph SW G24 | ↑ 9 mph W G12 |
| Sat | ↑ 5 mph WSW G12 | ↑ 7 mph WNW G8 |
| Sun | ↑ 4 mph WSW G9 | ↑ 9 mph W G6 |
🌊 Mornings play calmer (~7 vs ~9 mph) — a slight edge to AM-wave tee times.
🔒 Crew picks drop Wednesday night
Scottie Scheffler towers over the FedEx St. Jude Championship field at TPC Southwind with a +2.77 SG Total — more than half a stroke clear of anyone else — and the model projects him at a 13.9% win probability, nearly triple that of next-best Rory McIlroy (5.2%). Below the top tier, Tommy Fleetwood's profile is arguably the most complete: his +1.84 SG Total is tied for third in the field, his +0.053 course history adjustment is among the strongest of any contender, and his TPC Southwind record includes T3 finishes in both 2023 and 2025. Among longshots, Robert MacIntyre (+6836) and Ryan Gerard (+6157) flash legitimate top-10 upside north of 17%, driven by strong current form rather than name recognition.
Scheffler's Ball-Striking Edge Is Historic
Scheffler leads the field in SG Total (+2.77), SG Approach (+1.09), and ranks third in SG Putting (+0.53) — a rare combination of elite tee-to-green play and hot flatstick form. His three consecutive top-4 finishes at TPC Southwind (T31, 4th, T3) show a clear upward trajectory at this venue.
Scottie Scheffler
Fleetwood's Course Fit Is Field-Best
Among players with SG Total above +1.80, Tommy Fleetwood has the best course fit score (-0.012, essentially neutral) and the strongest course history adjustment (+0.053). His two T3 finishes in the last two editions at TPC Southwind confirm the model's view that his skillset — particularly his precision iron play — matches what this course demands.
Tommy Fleetwood
Fitzpatrick's Iron Play Fits Perfectly
Matt Fitzpatrick ranks third in the field in SG Approach (+0.82) and carries a near-neutral course fit (-0.035), projecting for a 27.1% top-10 probability. His methodical, accuracy-first style suits TPC Southwind's tight corridors, and at +3195 fair odds, the model sees him as one of the strongest profiles in the 30/1-and-up tier.
Matt Fitzpatrick
Matsuyama's TPC Southwind Pedigree Unmatched
The 2024 champion Hideki Matsuyama owns the field's highest course history adjustment (+0.070 strokes), reflecting his dominant win here last year. While his current SG Total of +1.30 is modest, that venue-specific boost makes him a compelling course history play at +3987 fair odds.
Hideki Matsuyama
Burns Pairs Hot Putter With History
Sam Burns leads the entire field in SG Putting (+0.60) and carries the second-best course history adjustment (+0.066) at TPC Southwind, where he finished T5 in 2024. The model projects a 25.7% top-10 probability, making him a strong top-10 and top-5 profile in the +3000 range.
Sam Burns
Morikawa's Approach Game Suits Southwind
Collin Morikawa ranks fourth in SG Approach (+0.80) and is one of only two players in the field with a positive course fit score (+0.013). His TPC Southwind history is solid across three years (T13, T22, T22), and the model gives him a 23.6% top-10 projection at +3690 fair odds.
Collin Morikawa
Si Woo Kim: Sneaky Course Fit
Si Woo Kim posts the field's best course fit score (+0.024) among players outside the top 10 on the board, pairing it with a respectable +1.54 SG Total. The model projects a 23.6% top-10 probability — identical to Morikawa — making him one of the most interesting profiles in the 40/1 tier.
Si Woo Kim
Gerard and MacIntyre Lead Longshot Tier
Ryan Gerard (+6157, +1.27 SG Total, 18.1% top-10 probability) and Robert MacIntyre (+6836, +1.32 SG Total, 17.2% top-10 probability) offer the strongest model profiles among players priced +5000 or longer. Gerard's quiet consistency and MacIntyre's solid overall game give both legitimate upside in this 69-player field.
Ryan Gerard Robert MacIntyre
McIlroy's Course Fit Raises Caution
Despite ranking second in SG Total (+2.14), Rory McIlroy carries the worst course fit score (-0.219) among the top 10 favorites, and his T68 finish at TPC Southwind in 2024 underscores the concern. The model still projects him at 5.2% to win on raw talent, but his skill-to-course matchup is the weakest among elite contenders.
Rory McIlroy
Cantlay and Hovland: Solid Mid-Tier Profiles
Patrick Cantlay (+3960, 23.5% top-10) and Viktor Hovland (+4384, 21.5% top-10) both project as steady mid-tier contenders with near-neutral course fits (-0.051 and -0.032 respectively). Neither carries red flags, and both offer clean top-10 and top-20 profiles for bettors looking to diversify exposure beyond the favorites.
Patrick Cantlay Viktor Hovland
📈 Biggest Climber · TPC Southwind
Rickie Fowler
2023 T58 → 2025 T6
▲52spots
🔥 Form Climbers · Last 3 Starts
Ryan Fox
Travelers T66 → Scottish Open T30 → The Open 1
▲65spots
Jordan Smith
3M Open T39 → Rocket T31 → Wyndham Championship T14
▲25spots
Michael Brennan
3M Open T24 → Rocket T15 → Wyndham Championship 1
▲23spots
Complete Betting Board
| # | Player | Why They Could Win | Win Odds GolfData API |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Scottie Scheffler
USA - OWGR #1
FAVORITE
|
Runner-up at the 3M Open and a T4 at The Open keep the world No. 1's baseline absurd, and the profile at Southwind is the whole package — +1.09 SG Approach, +0.79 off the tee, and +0.53 with the putter. He's finished T3 and 4th in his last two trips here, and the model's 54.7% top-10 number (priced at -121) is the tell: this is a Top 5 or Top 10 ticket more than a win play, even at +621. |
+621 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T3
20244
2023T31
Win+621
Top 5+161
Top 10-121
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): 2 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T4 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 2 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T4 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T12
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
13.9%
Top 10 Probability
54.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.11
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 2 |
Rory McIlroy
NIR - OWGR #2
CONTENDER
|
The bomber profile jumps off the page — +1.14 SG off the tee leads this group — but Southwind has never really been his canvas, reflected in the -0.219 course fit adjustment and a T68 in his last start here in 2024. A T7 at the Scottish and T40 at The Open suggest the game is close but not sharp, and the model lands at 5.15% to win. The +201 top-10 is the cleanest way in. |
+1844 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T68
2023T3
Win+1844
Top 5+405
Top 10+201
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T40 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T7 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T32 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T12
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
5.2%
Top 10 Probability
33.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.22
Course History-0.05
| |||
| 3 |
Cameron Young
USA - OWGR #3
CONTENDER
|
Solo 2nd at The Open Championship is the headliner, and it's backed by a T8 at the Rocket and a 5th at Southwind in 2025. The iron play (+0.83 SG APP) and driver (+0.75 OTT) fit a course that punishes loose tee shots, though the -0.138 fit adjustment reflects how tight and shot-shape-specific TPC Southwind plays. Model has him at 4.42% to win and 30.5% top 10 — the +228 top-10 is where the profile lives. |
+2161 |
Tournament History & Odds
20255
2024T61
2023T31
Win+2161
Top 5+461
Top 10+228
Recent Form
Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T61 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T8 • Corales Puntacana Championship (Jul 2026): T34 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): 2 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T47 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T46
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.4%
Top 10 Probability
30.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.14
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 4 |
Xander Schauffele
USA - OWGR #9
CONTENDER
|
The bounce-back is real — runner-up at the Rocket Classic followed a missed cut at the Scottish, and the T2 here in 2024 is the anchor result. Every strokes-gained category is positive (+0.79 OTT, +0.71 APP, +0.20 putter), which is what you want at a course that doesn't let you hide a weakness. Model gives him 29.9% top 10 at +234; the +2327 win number reflects a ceiling that's slightly capped by a -0.143 fit adjustment. |
+2327 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T22
2024T2
2023T24
Win+2327
Top 5+481
Top 10+234
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): 2 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T18 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T51 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T11 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T29
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.1%
Top 10 Probability
29.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.14
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 5 |
Tommy Fleetwood
ENG - OWGR #6
CONTENDER
|
Two T3s here in the last three years (2023 and 2025), and it's not a fluke — his +0.053 course history adjustment is among the strongest in the field. Coming off a T4 at The Open, T13 at the Scottish, and T4 at the Memorial, the form is dialed in. Balanced SG numbers across the board (+0.62 APP, +0.39 putter, +0.32 ARG) make him a legit 3.84% win case at +2501, with 30.8% top-10 equity behind it. |
+2501 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T3
2024T22
2023T3
Win+2501
Top 5+476
Top 10+224
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T4 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T13 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T11 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T11 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T4
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.8%
Top 10 Probability
30.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.05
| |||
| 6 |
Justin Thomas
USA - OWGR #23
CONTENDER
|
T14 at the Wyndham makes it five top-20s in his last seven starts, stretching back to the Charles Schwab. The short game is the calling card here — +0.44 SG Around the Green pairs with +0.41 iron play at a course where scrambling matters. Prior finishes of T28 and T30 at Southwind aren't screaming course horse, but the model still lands him at 25.9% top 10, and the +286 there is the most defensible ticket. |
+2975 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T28
2024T30
2023NA
Win+2975
Top 5+597
Top 10+286
Recent Form
Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T14 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T65 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T50 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T17 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T19 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.2%
Top 10 Probability
25.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 7 |
Sam Burns
USA - OWGR #11
CONTENDER
|
Runner-up at the U.S. Open, solo 3rd at The Open, and a T4 at Memorial — this is a guy playing the best golf of anyone outside the top tier. The +0.60 SG Putting leads this eight-man board, and a T5 at Southwind in 2024 backs the +0.066 course history bump. Model has him at 3.19% to win and 25.7% top 10; at +289 for the top 10, the form curve is doing the talking. |
+3030 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T28
2024T5
2023T52
Win+3030
Top 5+611
Top 10+289
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): 3 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T12 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): 2 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T20 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T4
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.2%
Top 10 Probability
25.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.12
Course History+0.07
| |||
| 8 |
Matt Fitzpatrick
ENG - OWGR #4
CONTENDER
|
The iron play is the pitch — +0.82 SG Approach on a course where precision is everything. Recent form is jagged (MC at The Open sandwiched between a T3 at the Scottish, 4th at Travelers, and 2nd at the Canadian Open), but the ball-striking baseline is elite for a world No. 4. Southwind history is unremarkable (T18 best in three tries), which is why the model settles at 3.03% to win and +269 for a top 10. |
+3195 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T32
2024T18
2023T66
Win+3195
Top 5+588
Top 10+269
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T3 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 4 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): 22 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): 2 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T36
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.0%
Top 10 Probability
27.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 9 |
Ludvig Aberg
SWE - OWGR #16
CONTENDER
|
A T9 at The Open followed by a T17 at the U.S. Open says the ball-striking is back where it should be, and Southwind rewards exactly that — his +0.78 SG Approach and +0.63 off the tee headline this field's ball-strikers. He was T9 here in 2025 in his second look at the course. The model gives him a 23.7% top-10 shot at +323, and that's the cleanest way to play a guy whose putter (+0.21) is the only skill keeping him from a shorter Win price. |
+3421 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T9
2024T40
2023NA
Win+3421
Top 5+676
Top 10+323
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T9 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T55 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T17 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 39 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T17
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.8%
Top 10 Probability
23.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.13
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 10 |
Collin Morikawa
USA - OWGR #10
CONTENDER
|
Three straight top-22s at Southwind (T13-T22-T22 from 2023-25) plus a solo 3rd at the Travelers make this one of the more stable profiles in the field. The +0.80 SG Approach is elite, the course-fit adjustment (+0.013) and history bump (+0.014) both lean positive, and the model spits out a 23.6% top-10 chance at +323. Nothing about the profile screams winner — it screams high floor, and that's a Top 5 ticket at +691. |
+3690 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T22
2024T22
2023T13
Win+3690
Top 5+691
Top 10+323
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T18 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 3 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T17 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T29
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.6%
Top 10 Probability
23.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 11 |
Patrick Cantlay
USA - OWGR #41
CONTENDER
|
Runner-up here in 2023, T12 in 2024, T9 in 2025 — nobody in this tier has a cleaner course record. A T8 at the Rocket Classic snapped a spotty stretch, and the underlying numbers (+0.74 approach, +0.21 around the green) remain vintage Cantlay. OWGR has slipped to #41 but the model isn't buying the decline: 23.5% to crack the top 10 at +326, with a +0.013 course history adjustment reinforcing what the record already says. |
+3960 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T9
2024T12
20232
Win+3960
Top 5+712
Top 10+326
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T8 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T28 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T17
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.5%
Top 10 Probability
23.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 12 |
Si Woo Kim
KOR - OWGR #18
CONTENDER
|
The links swing traveled — T6 at The Open, T9 at the Scottish, and the ball-striking looks locked in with +0.74 SG Approach and +0.42 off the tee. Southwind's a course-fit positive (+0.024) even if the history adjustment reads negative, and three appearances have produced T14-T50-T16. The model's 2.46% win number (+3965) is honest for a guy this streaky, but 23.6% to top-10 is where the profile actually lives. |
+3965 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T14
2024T50
2023T16
Win+3965
Top 5+712
Top 10+323
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T42 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T6 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T9 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T44 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T10
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.5%
Top 10 Probability
23.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History-0.06
| |||
| 13 |
Hideki Matsuyama
JPN - OWGR #24
CONTENDER
|
The 2024 champion of this event is stacking results — T7 at the Wyndham, T5 at the Rocket, solo 3rd at the 3M — and the course history adjustment (+0.07) is the biggest positive number in this tier. The short game is doing the heavy lifting (+0.40 around the green, +0.25 putting) with approach still solid at +0.53. At +3987 to win with a title already on this property, this is the most defensible outright ticket in the value bucket. |
+3987 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T17
20241
2023T16
Win+3987
Top 5+721
Top 10+331
Recent Form
Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T7 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T5 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T3 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T14 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T65 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T43 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.5%
Top 10 Probability
23.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History+0.07
| |||
| 14 |
Viktor Hovland
NOR - OWGR #14
CONTENDER
|
The Travelers title in June is the anchor — proof the ball-striking can carry him when the putter cooperates. A runner-up here in 2024 says Southwind fits, even if the fit adjustment (-0.032) is slightly skeptical. Two missed cuts in his last three majors are the reason he's parked at +4384 instead of shorter, but +365 to top-10 with a 21.5% model probability is where a boom-or-bust profile like this belongs on the card. |
+4384 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T32
2024T2
2023T13
Win+4384
Top 5+805
Top 10+365
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T13 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 1 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): 3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.2%
Top 10 Probability
21.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 15 |
Chris Gotterup
USA - OWGR #7
CONTENDER
|
The John Deere winner in July and a T11 at the Scottish behind it — the OWGR jumped to #7 for a reason. Southwind is the question mark: T54 in his only look, and a -0.17 course fit adjustment is the ugliest number on his page. The model still gets to 19.4% top-10 at +416 on raw talent (+0.73 off the tee, +0.54 approach), but the fit math means the Top 5 ticket at +900 is the aggressive play, not the outright. |
+4879 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T54
2024NA
2023NA
Win+4879
Top 5+900
Top 10+416
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T18 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T11 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): 1 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T27
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.0%
Top 10 Probability
19.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.17
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 16 |
Russell Henley
USA - OWGR #5
CONTENDER
|
World #5 with a Charles Schwab title on his ledger and a T9 at The Open — the results are stacking up even if the ball-striking numbers (+0.43 SG Approach) look modest for this tier. What carries the profile is the +0.077 course fit adjustment, the biggest positive in this group, plus a T6 here in 2023. Model gives 20.1% to top-10 at +398, which fits a grinder whose +0.40 putting is doing more of the work than the irons right now. |
+4980 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T17
2024T30
2023T6
Win+4980
Top 5+885
Top 10+398
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T20 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T9 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T12 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T65 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T22 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): 1
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.0%
Top 10 Probability
20.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.08
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 17 |
Jackson Koivun
USA - OWGR #69
VALUE
|
A 3M Open title in July is a massive résumé line for a rookie without a single prior start at Southwind, and the model is treating him seriously — 18.3% for a top 10, plus a T10 at the ISCO to go with the 3M win. The catch is a slight -0.038 course-fit adjustment and zero data on this quirky Bermuda track, which is why the +5742 outright feels thinner than the +447 top-10 number. Bet the placement markets, not the trophy. |
+5742 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+5742
Top 5+1008
Top 10+447
Recent Form
Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T29 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T31 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): 1 • ISCO Championship (Jul 2026): T10 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.7%
Top 10 Probability
18.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History—
| |||
| 18 |
Ryan Gerard
USA - OWGR #25
VALUE
|
The world #25 has quietly assembled a serious 2026 — a solo 2nd at the Memorial, T9 at The Open, T8 at the Rocket, T10 at the Charles Schwab — and the +1.27 SG Total profile is balanced across every category. Southwind history is thin (a lone T44 in '25) and the course-fit read is mildly negative at -0.043, so the model's 18.1% top-10 chance is doing more work than the 1.6% win number. Top 5 at +1008 is where the profile lives. |
+6157 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T44
2024NA
2023NA
Win+6157
Top 5+1008
Top 10+453
Recent Form
Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): MC • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T8 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T9 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T26 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T44 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 2 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T10
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
18.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 19 |
Maverick McNealy
USA - OWGR #47
VALUE
|
Short-game specialist in a field of ball-strikers — +0.56 SG Putting and +0.29 around the greens lead his profile, while the tee-to-green numbers (+0.16 OTT, +0.14 approach) are pedestrian. Southwind has been kind (T12 in '24, T28 in '25) and the +0.032 course-history adjustment reflects that, but the -0.092 course-fit read is among the larger negatives in this tier. The model gives him 17.3% to crack the top 10; the +6310 outright is a stretch given the recent form (T25-T34-MC-T55). |
+6310 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T28
2024T12
2023NA
Win+6310
Top 5+1064
Top 10+476
Recent Form
Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T25 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T34 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T55 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T32 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T10
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
17.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.09
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 20 |
Tom Kim
KOR - OWGR #30
VALUE
|
Scottish Open champion in July, solo 3rd at the U.S. Open in June, and a T5 at the Wyndham — that's a genuine heater, and the +0.70 SG Approach is the engine driving it. Southwind history is meh (T50, T24) but the course-fit read is dead neutral at +0.002, so nothing here is fighting the form. The model prints 17.7% for top 10 and 35.2% for top 20; those are the markets that match this profile better than the +6317 outright. |
+6317 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T50
2023T24
Win+6317
Top 5+1049
Top 10+465
Recent Form
Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T5 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T20 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): 1 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T46 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): 3 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T15 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T54
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
17.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 21 |
Ben Griffin
USA - OWGR #20
VALUE
|
The balance is what stands out — +0.40 approach, +0.34 around the green, +0.40 putting, no obvious hole in the bag. Southwind has been a friendly venue (T9 in '25 is the highlight, plus a +0.017 history bump), and earlier-season results like the T3 at Colonial and T10 at the Travelers show the ceiling. The concern is a rough patch heading in (MC-MC-T59) that's dragging the momentum read. Model has him at 17.4% top 10, which is where I'd play it. |
+6804 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T9
2024T50
2023T24
Win+6804
Top 5+1085
Top 10+475
Recent Form
Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): MC • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T59 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T21 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T10 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T17 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
17.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 22 |
Robert MacIntyre
SCO - OWGR #17
VALUE
|
Second-best raw SG number in this tier at +1.32, with a T3 at the Scottish and T10 at the Travelers anchoring the recent form. T7 here in 2024 earns him a +0.027 course-history nudge, though the -0.048 fit adjustment cancels most of it out. The model's 17.2% top-10 projection is the cleanest way to bet him at +6836 outright — the ball-striking travels, but Southwind isn't the profile match a bomber's game usually wants. |
+6836 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T38
2024T7
2023NA
Win+6836
Top 5+1100
Top 10+482
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T28 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T3 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T10 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T39 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T15 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T42
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.4%
Top 10 Probability
17.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 23 |
Min Woo Lee
AUS - OWGR #27
VALUE
|
Highest SG Total in this tier at +1.40 and a runner-up at the Scottish Open, but this is a rough course fit — the -0.15 adjustment is the biggest negative in the group, and the -0.065 course-history read reinforces it (T68 in '25, T22 in '24). The +0.61 OTT number is elite but Southwind neutralizes bombers, which is why the model tops out at 15.6% for a top 10 despite the raw talent. The +7642 outright is a hard pass; there are cleaner ways to bet this profile. |
+7642 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T68
2024T22
2023NA
Win+7642
Top 5+1230
Top 10+542
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T59 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): 2 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T62 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
15.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.15
Course History-0.07
| |||
| 24 |
J.J. Spaun
USA - OWGR #15
VALUE
|
Runner-up at Southwind in 2025 is the anchor — the +0.059 course-history adjustment is the largest positive in this tier, and the +0.74 SG Approach is exactly the skill this course rewards. The worry is putter (-0.11) and a form line that's cooled since the Travelers T7 (T50-T40-T44 since). The model still lands at 15.9% for a top 10 and +1206 for a top 5; the course fit says the ceiling is real even if the recent scoring hasn't kept up. |
+7652 |
Tournament History & Odds
20252
2024NA
2023T24
Win+7652
Top 5+1206
Top 10+529
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T50 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T40 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T44 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T7 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T12 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
15.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History+0.06
| |||
| 25 |
Michael Thorbjornsen
USA - OWGR #39
VALUE
|
Winner of the Rocket Classic in his most recent start, and the underlying profile backs up the trophy — +1.27 SG Total, +0.55 off the tee, +0.45 on approach, plus a T7 at the Genesis Scottish sandwiched in between. No Southwind reps on the resume is the wrinkle, and the -0.096 course fit adjustment says the model isn't sold on the venue for him. Still, at OWGR #39 with a 15.7% top-10 projection, the +538 top-10 number is where the model's confidence actually lives. |
+7672 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+7672
Top 5+1231
Top 10+538
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): 1 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T40 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T7 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T54 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): 16
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.3%
Top 10 Probability
15.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.10
Course History—
| |||
| 26 |
Wyndham Clark
USA - OWGR #8
VALUE
|
Won the U.S. Open in June and followed it with a T5 at the Travelers and a 3rd at the Memorial — that's peak Wyndham Clark for a three-week stretch. Then came MCs at the Open and Rocket Classic, which is why the fair Win price sits at +8571 rather than something scarier. The +0.51 putting number leads this profile and the T7 here in 2024 is the useful data point; the -0.109 course fit adjustment is the pushback. Top-10 at +595 is the cleanest way to play a boom-or-bust profile. |
+8571 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T56
2024T7
2023T66
Win+8571
Top 5+1358
Top 10+595
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T13 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T5 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): 1 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T11 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
14.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.11
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 27 |
Aaron Rai
ENG - OWGR #19
VALUE
|
The course fit is doing real work here — +0.10 fit adjustment plus a +0.039 course history bump built on T22-T16-T49 finishes across three straight Southwind starts. Precision profile with +0.52 approach and +0.22 off the tee, exactly the DNA that travels to a tight bermuda track. Form is the concern: MCs at the Scottish and Open sandwich a T29 at the Wyndham. The model gives him 15.6% to crack the top 10, and +541 there is the fairest read on a grinder who tends to hang around. |
+8977 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T22
2024T16
2023T49
Win+8977
Top 5+1290
Top 10+541
Recent Form
Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T29 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T11 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T19
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
15.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.10
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 28 |
Alex Fitzpatrick
ENG - OWGR #68
VALUE
|
The ball-striking is quietly excellent — +0.65 SG Approach and +0.45 off the tee combine for one of the better tee-to-green profiles in this tier, and the T7 at the Travelers plus T6 at the Memorial back it up. The putter is the anchor at -0.14, which is why the fair Win number sits out at +9117 despite the strong long game. Southwind history is unremarkable (T32-T18-T66) and the fit adjustment is essentially flat. Top 20 at 29.6% is where the model is most comfortable. |
+9117 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T32
2024T18
2023T66
Win+9117
Top 5+1464
Top 10+621
Recent Form
Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T61 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T71 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T7 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T20 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
13.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 29 |
Sungjae Im
KOR - OWGR #73
VALUE
|
The T6 here in 2023 is the ceiling data point, but everything since has been middling — T17 and T40 in the last two Southwind starts, and a recent stretch littered with T30s and MCs. The profile is upside-down for this venue: +0.35 around the green and +0.34 putting are the strengths, while -0.12 approach is a real problem on a course that demands irons. At +9275 to win with a 13.1% top-10 projection, this is a make-cut-and-hang-around bet, not a trophy bet. |
+9275 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T17
2024T40
2023T6
Win+9275
Top 5+1568
Top 10+662
Recent Form
Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T14 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T15 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T14 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T71 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T32 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
13.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 30 |
Kurt Kitayama
USA - OWGR #37
VALUE
|
T9 at Southwind in 2025 is the recent history hook, and the ball-striking backs it up — +0.57 approach and +0.45 off the tee give him one of the cleaner tee-to-green profiles in the longshot tier. The problem is the short game grades out flat (+0.03 around, +0.02 putting) and the -0.088 course fit adjustment is meaningful. Recent form has been steady rather than sharp: T22-T25-T44-T40-T24 across his last five. The 12.9% top-10 projection is the honest read. |
+9883 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T9
2024NA
2023T52
Win+9883
Top 5+1566
Top 10+674
Recent Form
3M Open (Jul 2026): T24 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T40 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T44 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T25 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T53 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T22
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
12.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.09
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 31 |
Rickie Fowler
USA - OWGR #44
VALUE
|
The T6 at Southwind in 2025 was the moment the resurrection narrative got real, and a T8 at the Rocket Classic plus T18 at the Open keep it alive. Profile is balanced without being elite — +0.29 approach, +0.23 putting, +0.33 off the tee — which is why the fair Win price sits at +9967 despite the good vibes. Three MCs earlier in the summer (Charles Schwab, Memorial, U.S. Open) are the reminder that consistency isn't quite here yet. Top 10 at +684 is the vehicle if you want in. |
+9967 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T6
2024NA
2023T58
Win+9967
Top 5+1604
Top 10+684
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T8 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T18 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T15 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T38 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
12.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 32 |
Justin Rose
ENG - OWGR #12
VALUE
|
Defending champion at Southwind after his 2025 win, and the +0.034 course history adjustment reflects a genuinely strong track record here (T22 and T20 in his other two starts). The iron play at +0.51 is exactly what wins this golf tournament, and a T11 at the U.S. Open plus T12 at the Memorial show the game is present. MC at the Open Championship is the caveat, and at 45 years old the volume of top-tier weeks is thinning. The +717 top-10 number is the fairest way to bet the title defense. |
+10001 |
Tournament History & Odds
20251
2024T22
2023T20
Win+10001
Top 5+1641
Top 10+717
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T25 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T11 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T12
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
12.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History+0.03
| |||
| 33 |
Shane Lowry
IRL - OWGR #51
VALUE
|
Iron play is carrying the profile — +0.70 SG Approach paired with a modest +0.32 off the tee gives Lowry a solid tee-to-green foundation, but the putter sitting at -0.04 caps the upside. Southwind history is uninspiring (T50 and T59 the last two years), and the model reflects that with a 13.3% top-10 number and +654 to hit that mark. Recent form leans mediocre outside a T28 at The Open, so the top-10 ticket is the cleanest way to play a longshot with a thin win path at +10711. |
+10711 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T59
2024T50
2023NA
Win+10711
Top 5+1578
Top 10+654
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T28 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T22 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T29 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T22
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
13.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 34 |
Michael Brennan
USA - OWGR #35
VALUE
|
Coming off a win at the Wyndham Championship, which is the entire reason he's in this field and the entire reason the profile is worth a look. The ball-striking is legit — +0.63 off the tee and +0.37 approach — but the -0.154 course fit adjustment is the ugliest number in this tier and reflects real concern about how his game translates to Southwind. No prior starts here means the model is flying blind, and at 11.9% to crack the top 10, the +739 number is where the reasonable action lives. |
+10789 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10789
Top 5+1745
Top 10+739
Recent Form
Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): 1 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T15 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T24 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T53 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T52 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T33 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
11.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.15
Course History—
| |||
| 35 |
Alex Smalley
USA - OWGR #46
VALUE
|
The T3 at Colonial and a T7 at the Wyndham anchor a quietly productive stretch, and the +0.45 SG Approach plus +0.24 putting give him a balanced +0.89 SG Total profile. Southwind history is a single MDF-adjacent 65th back in 2023, and the -0.036 course history adjustment plus -0.035 fit knock reflect that. Model gives him a 12.6% top-10 shot at +691, which is the market that actually fits the profile — the +11178 win price is a lottery ticket. |
+11178 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
202365
Win+11178
Top 5+1635
Top 10+691
Recent Form
Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T7 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T53 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T47 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
12.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History-0.04
| |||
| 36 |
Bud Cauley
USA - OWGR #43
VALUE
|
Won the RBC Canadian Open earlier this summer and backed it up with a T18 at The Open and T14 at Travelers — this is a legitimately in-form player at +11285. The T14 at Southwind in 2025 is a useful recent data point on a course where the fit adjustment is essentially flat (-0.027). Balanced skill set across the board (+0.36 approach, +0.20 around the green, +0.24 off the tee) and the 11.6% top-20... wait — 25.7% top 20 and 11.6% top 10 mean the top-10 at +764 is where the profile points. |
+11285 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T14
2024NA
2023NA
Win+11285
Top 5+1845
Top 10+764
Recent Form
Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T54 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T18 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T56 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): 1 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T22
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.9%
Top 10 Probability
11.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 37 |
Corey Conners
CAN - OWGR #52
VALUE
|
Elite iron play as always — +0.53 SG Approach headlines a +0.82 SG Total — and there's a genuine Southwind ceiling here with a T6 in 2023. Problem is the last two trips have both been T50, which is why the course history adjustment sits at -0.055 despite the 2023 result. Form is fine (T14 at The Open, T7 at Travelers), and the model spits out 12.6% to hit the top 10 at +693, but the putter neutrality at 0.00 remains the ceiling on any win equity at +11734. |
+11734 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T50
2024T50
2023T6
Win+11734
Top 5+1681
Top 10+693
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T20 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T39 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T14 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T52 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T7 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 53
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
12.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History-0.06
| |||
| 38 |
Harris English
USA - OWGR #38
VALUE
|
Rare profile in this field where the short game does the heavy lifting — +0.29 putting and +0.24 around the green offset a genuinely worrying -0.04 SG Approach. The +0.045 course history bump is the best in this tier, built off three straight made cuts at Southwind including T48 in 2025. Form is a red flag though: MC at Wyndham, MC at The Open, MC at Genesis Scottish, MC at the U.S. Open. Hard to see the win path at +12195 when the ball-striking is this flat. |
+12195 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T48
2024T61
2023T52
Win+12195
Top 5+1757
Top 10+718
Recent Form
Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): MC • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T71 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T38 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T17
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
12.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 39 |
Jordan Smith
ENG - OWGR #72
VALUE
|
Debut at Southwind and the model has no history to work with, but the underlying skill set travels — +0.54 off the tee and +0.38 approach make him one of the better ball-strikers in this longshot tier. Recent form is quietly consistent: T14 Wyndham, T18 Open Championship, T21 Genesis Scottish, T13 Colonial. The -0.029 fit adjustment is mild, and at +817 to crack the top 10 with a 10.9% model projection, he's a defensible dart in a market where you're mostly guessing anyway. |
+13116 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+13116
Top 5+1982
Top 10+817
Recent Form
Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T14 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T31 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T39 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T18 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T21 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.8%
Top 10 Probability
10.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History—
| |||
| 40 |
Keith Mitchell
USA - OWGR #74
VALUE
|
T4 at the U.S. Open is the number that jumps off the page, and the +0.54 off the tee, +0.40 approach combo explains how he got there. Everything since has cooled — T22 Travelers, T44 3M, T38 Wyndham — and the -0.093 course fit adjustment is a real concern at a Southwind track that has historically not rewarded his profile. Putter at -0.16 is the drag on the whole thing, and at +13353 the model is politely telling you the win path is narrow. |
+13353 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023T43
Win+13353
Top 5+1971
Top 10+829
Recent Form
Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T38 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T44 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T51 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T22 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T4 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T29 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
10.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.09
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 41 |
Akshay Bhatia
USA - OWGR #33
VALUE
|
Two Southwind trips, two top-12s — the T6 in '25 and T12 in '24 make the course-history adjustment (+0.038) one of the few positives on his card right now. Back-to-back missed cuts at the Rocket and The Open are ugly, but the T5 at Travelers shows the ceiling is still there. The model's +809 top-10 number is where the profile actually lives; +0.49 SG Putting plus proven fit at TPC Southwind makes him a defensible place-market dart, not a serious winner. |
+13475 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T6
2024T12
2023NA
Win+13475
Top 5+1955
Top 10+809
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T5 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T17 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T28
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
11.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 42 |
Alex Noren
SWE - OWGR #26
VALUE
|
The T7 at the Wyndham broke a rough three-event stretch (two MCs and a T55), and the underlying model actually likes the fit here — a +0.053 course fit adjustment is one of the better marks in this tier. Ball-striking is pedestrian (+0.10 approach, +0.03 off the tee), so this is a short-game and putting profile (+0.44 SG Putt, +0.17 ARG) trying to steal a week. The +770 top-10 price is the market that matches; win equity at +13693 is thin and the model agrees at 0.73%. |
+13693 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T30
2023NA
Win+13693
Top 5+1916
Top 10+770
Recent Form
Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T7 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T18 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T55 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 9
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
11.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 43 |
Kristoffer Reitan
NOR - OWGR #28
VALUE
|
No Southwind history and a -0.086 course fit adjustment — the model is skeptical this bomber profile translates to a course that punishes his weakest skill (-0.12 SG Around Green). What's interesting: he leads this trio in raw SG Total at +0.94, with +0.60 off the tee headlining, and he's already flashed a T6 at Memorial and T18 at The Open in his last handful. Top-10 at +890 is where the model lets you play; the 0.71% win projection reflects a genuine debut discount. |
+13985 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+13985
Top 5+2123
Top 10+890
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T18 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T22 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T60 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
10.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.09
Course History—
| |||
| 44 |
Eric Cole
USA - OWGR #75
VALUE
|
Runner-up at Colonial and a solo 8th at Memorial are the kind of results that would normally get a player more respect, but four missed cuts and a T53 since have buried the profile. Southwind history is fine, not special (T18 in '24, T31 in '23), and the +0.29 around-the-green plus +0.41 putting combo fits a short course that doesn't demand length. Model's 10.1% top-10 projection at +892 is honest — the win equity (0.68%) reflects a player whose ceiling exists but whose current form doesn't. |
+14642 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T18
2023T31
Win+14642
Top 5+2145
Top 10+892
Recent Form
Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T29 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T53 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): 70 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T39 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T38 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 8 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): 2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
10.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 45 |
Jake Knapp
USA - OWGR #50
VALUE
|
The course fit here is actively bad — a -0.125 adjustment plus a -0.049 history mark after finishes of T62 and 67 in his two Southwind starts. The tools are legit (+0.33 off the tee, +0.32 approach) and the T13 at the 3M Open shows the ball-striking still travels, but three missed cuts in his last six is not the form line you want backing a 0.67% win projection. The +954 top-10 is the only market where the profile makes any sense, and even that's a stretch. |
+14751 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T62
202467
2023NA
Win+14751
Top 5+2280
Top 10+954
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): MC • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T13 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T55 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
9.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.12
Course History-0.05
| |||
| 46 |
Jordan Spieth
USA - OWGR #57
LONGSHOT
|
The 2023 T6 is the only Southwind result worth citing — T38 and T68 followed, and the course fit adjustment sits at -0.083. The recent form is a string of T19-T31-MC-T58-T66-T56-MC, which is exactly what a +0.14 SG Putting number and pedestrian +0.66 SG Total will get you. Name equity is doing most of the work at +15245; the 10.3% top-10 projection is the model politely acknowledging he can still shoot a number, not endorsing a win path. |
+15245 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T38
2024T68
2023T6
Win+15245
Top 5+2138
Top 10+875
Recent Form
Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T19 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T31 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T58 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T66 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T56 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
10.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.08
Course History-0.04
| |||
| 47 |
Jacob Bridgeman
USA - OWGR #31
LONGSHOT
|
Quietly the most consistent longshot on this list — seven straight made cuts including a T17 at Southwind in '25, a T11 at the RBC Canadian Open, and nothing worse than T47 across that stretch. The skill profile travels: +0.83 SG Total driven by +0.26 approach and +0.40 putting, with essentially neutral course fit (-0.023) and a small positive history bump (+0.017). Win equity at +15484 is thin at 0.64%, but the +852 top-10 and 24.1% top-20 projection are where a grinder's profile like this actually pays. |
+15484 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T17
2024NA
2023NA
Win+15484
Top 5+2090
Top 10+852
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T26 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T28 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T26 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T47 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T39 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T11 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T34
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
10.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 48 |
Nicolai Hojgaard
DEN - OWGR #40
LONGSHOT
|
Rawest talent in this group — +0.86 SG Total with +0.38 approach and +0.34 off the tee — but the model absolutely hates the fit at -0.177, the worst adjustment among these eight. No Southwind history to lean on, and the recent form is a mess: four missed cuts in his last seven with only the T14 at Travelers as a real bright spot. The +1025 top-10 exists because the ball-striking ceiling is real; the 0.61% win projection tells you Southwind is the wrong week to chase it. |
+16384 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+16384
Top 5+2461
Top 10+1025
Recent Form
Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T61 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T26 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.18
Course History—
| |||
| 49 |
Brian Harman
USA - OWGR #61
LONGSHOT
|
Three straight made cuts at Southwind — T31, T50, T22 — is exactly the kind of quiet course fit the model rewards, and the +0.053 fit adjustment agrees. A T3 at the 3M Open is the only real spike in recent form, but the +0.29 approach and +0.19 putting profile plays at a course that punishes wildness off the tee. The model lands at 9.7% for the top 10 and prices him at +926 there, which is where the profile actually fits. |
+16613 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T22
2024T50
2023T31
Win+16613
Top 5+2326
Top 10+926
Recent Form
Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): MC • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T3 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T36 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T25 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T32 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): MC • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T22
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
9.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 50 |
Adam Scott
AUS - OWGR #54
LONGSHOT
|
The best iron player in this group of longshots — +0.53 SG Approach and +0.76 SG Total headline a ballstriker profile that just produced a T9 at The Open. Course fit is the sticking point at -0.068, though a +0.047 history bump from the T18 in 2024 partially offsets it. Model gives him a 10% top-10 shot at +903, and that's the market where the irons actually cash. Win equity at +17092 is thin — he hasn't putted well enough (-0.07) to close. |
+17092 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T18
2023NA
Win+17092
Top 5+2202
Top 10+903
Recent Form
The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T9 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T66 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 65 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T12
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
10.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History+0.05
| |||
| 51 |
J.T. Poston
USA - OWGR #36
LONGSHOT
|
Winner at the Memorial and a T4 at the U.S. Open inside a two-month window — that's a genuine ceiling spike, and the +0.037 course history adjustment from three straight Southwind cuts (T24, T33, T22) reinforces the fit. The +0.15 approach number is modest but paired with +0.17 putting and a +0.039 fit bump, the model gets to 9.8% for the top 10 at +917. The Wyndham MC is a yellow flag on form, but the ceiling is real. |
+17141 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T22
2024T33
2023T24
Win+17141
Top 5+2293
Top 10+917
Recent Form
Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T51 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 69 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T4 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 1 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T35
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
9.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 52 |
Ryo Hisatsune
JPN - OWGR #66
LONGSHOT
|
Debuting at Southwind with the strongest ballstriking profile in this cluster — +0.37 off the tee and +0.37 approach — but a -0.10 putter is exactly the kind of leak that stops longshots from winning. The T9 at the John Deere is the only top-25 in his last eight starts, and the -0.02 course fit is neutral at best. Model gets to 8.7% for the top 10 at +1047; the tee-to-green profile could hit that number but a win at +18082 requires the putter to actually show up, which it hasn't. |
+18082 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+18082
Top 5+2638
Top 10+1047
Recent Form
Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): MC • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T50 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T53 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T9 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T38 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): 52 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): 66
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.6%
Top 10 Probability
8.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History—
| |||
| 53 |
Michael Kim
USA - OWGR #59
LONGSHOT
|
Ten starts, one missed cut streak snapped by a T8 at the Rocket and a T10 at the 3M — the volume is there but the results are choppy. The +0.30 approach and +0.33 putting combo is genuinely useful at Southwind, where the +0.041 history adjustment reflects the lone T59 in 2025 being better than it looks on paper. Model's 9.7% top-10 number at +935 is the fair read on a profile that lacks a true ceiling — the -0.15 off the tee caps the upside. |
+18305 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T59
2024NA
2023NA
Win+18305
Top 5+2361
Top 10+935
Recent Form
Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T54 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T8 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T10 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T49 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T17
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
9.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 54 |
Sahith Theegala
USA - OWGR #84
LONGSHOT
|
The name still carries weight but the underlying numbers don't — +0.44 SG Total is the weakest in this cluster and the -0.059 course fit adjustment is one of the harshest in the field. The T13 in 2023 is a real data point and drives the +0.036 history bump, but he hasn't finished inside the top 30 since the U.S. Open T11. At +20733 to win and +1158 for the top 10, the model is essentially saying the profile is thin — this is a pass unless the irons find another gear. |
+20733 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T46
2023T13
Win+20733
Top 5+2964
Top 10+1158
Recent Form
Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T49 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T53 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T66 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T51 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T11 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T45 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T32 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): T60
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
8.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.06
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 55 |
Harry Hall
ENG - OWGR #77
LONGSHOT
|
The short game is the whole story here — +0.32 around the green and +0.45 putting are elite marks, and the T5 at the Wyndham is the freshest confirmation that the flatstick is live. Problem is the -0.35 off the tee at a course that demands accuracy, and the -0.037 fit adjustment reflects that mismatch. Model's 8.2% top-10 read at +1115 is generous given the tee-to-green profile; a win at +22627 requires the putter to carry four rounds, which is a heavy ask. |
+22627 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T22
2024NA
2023NA
Win+22627
Top 5+2843
Top 10+1115
Recent Form
Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T5 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T51 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T40 • The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday (Jun 2026): T29 • Charles Schwab Challenge (May 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
8.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History+0.00
| |||
Who writes this preview?
Cosmos Research is the weekly tournament desk of Cosmos Golf, the same brand as the Golf in the Cosmos podcast.
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Season One is on golfinthecosmos.com. This week’s pick is the Moon Landing Mission Patch Hat.
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