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// BETTING PREVIEW - SEPTEMBER 3-6
Omega European Masters
September 3-6, 2026 | Crans-Montana, Switzerland
⛅ Tournament Weather Forecast Expect partly cloudy skies with highs in the 77F range and light winds around 10 mph throughout the week. No rain is forecast, making for ideal scoring conditions.
🌬️ Wind by Day — Morning & Afternoon
| Day | 8 AM | 12 PM |
|---|---|---|
| Thu | ↑ 3 mph N G6 | ↑ 5 mph SSW G10 |
| Fri | ↑ 2 mph NE G7 | ↑ 2 mph S G9 |
| Sat | ↑ 3 mph NW G13 | ↑ 7 mph SSW G16 |
| Sun | ↑ 3 mph NNE G9 | ↑ 4 mph SSE G11 |
🌊 Mornings play calmer (~3 vs ~4 mph) — a slight edge to AM-wave tee times.
Miller
- Win:Marco Penge+1600
- Top 5:Marco Penge+420
- Top 10:Marco Penge+210
Kevin Hammond
- Win:Ryan Gerard+1300
- Top 5:Ryan Gerard+330
- Top 10:Ryan Gerard+168
Parbeh
- Win:Sergio Garcia+3300
- Top 5:Sergio Garcia+740
- Top 10:Sergio Garcia+350
Ryan Gerard tops the model projections for the Omega European Masters at Crans-sur-Sierre Golf Club, leading the field with +1.42 SG Total and ranking among the top five in both approach play (+0.45) and putting (+0.34). Matt Wallace's profile is equally compelling — he ranks #2 in SG Total (+0.84), #2 in approach (+0.51), and crucially brings a T2 finish at this venue in 2025, giving him one of the strongest combined form-plus-history profiles in the field. Further down the board, Eugenio Chacarra leads the entire field in SG Approach at +0.55 and sits #4 in overall SG Total (+0.63) at +3638 fair odds, making him one of the most interesting names in the mid-tier. This is a field where ball-striking separates the contenders — Crans-sur-Sierre's alpine setting and firm, undulating greens reward precise iron play, and the model reflects that clearly in who it ranks highest.
Gerard's Complete Game Leads the Field
Ryan Gerard ranks #1 in SG Total (+1.42), #3 in SG Approach (+0.45), and #5 in SG Putting (+0.34). That dual-threat profile — elite with irons and on the greens — is rare in this field and underpins his position as the model's top-projected player at +1248 fair odds.
Ryan Gerard
Wallace Pairs Elite Approach With Course Pedigree
Matt Wallace ranks #2 in SG Approach (+0.51) and #2 in SG Total (+0.84), and his T2 finish here in 2025 confirms his game translates to Crans-sur-Sierre Golf Club. That combination of current form and venue history at +1568 fair odds makes him the model's strongest favorite profile behind Gerard.
Matt Wallace
Chacarra's Iron Play Is Field-Best
Eugenio Chacarra leads all 156 players in SG Approach at +0.55 and ranks #4 in SG Total (+0.63). At +3638 fair odds, he sits in a mid-tier where his ball-striking ceiling gives him legitimate win upside — a strong profile relative to others in his pricing range.
Eugenio Chacarra
Rasmus Hojgaard's Putter Fuels Contention
Rasmus Hojgaard ranks #4 in SG Putting (+0.37) and pairs that with a T2 finish at this venue in 2025. His SG Total of +0.61 (#6 overall) at +2782 fair odds profiles him as a legitimate contender, though a slight negative course fit adjustment (-0.077) tempers the projection modestly.
Rasmus Hojgaard
Reed's Course Fit Edge Is Noteworthy
Patrick Reed carries the strongest positive course fit adjustment among the top 10 favorites at +0.020, along with #4 ranking in SG Approach (+0.34) and #8 in SG Total (+0.49). At +3756 fair odds, his profile suggests his game is well-suited to what Crans-sur-Sierre Golf Club demands.
Patrick Reed
David Puig: Best Putter At Big Odds
David Puig leads the entire field in SG Putting at +0.43 — comfortably clear of #2 Harry Hall (+0.40) — yet sits at +8842 fair odds. If the greens at Crans-sur-Sierre Golf Club prove difficult this week, Puig's flat-stick advantage could yield a top-10 contention at a generous tier.
David Puig
Migliozzi's Course History Stands Out
Guido Migliozzi carries the second-highest course history adjustment in the field at +0.176 strokes, trailing only Renato Paratore (+0.184). At +7975 fair odds, Migliozzi profiles as a each-way type whose venue familiarity at Crans-sur-Sierre Golf Club lifts his projection above what raw form alone would suggest.
Guido Migliozzi
Nicolai Hojgaard's MC Is A Red Flag
Despite ranking #3 in SG Total (+0.83) and #5 in SG Approach (+0.30), Nicolai Hojgaard missed the cut here in 2025 and carries a negative course fit adjustment of -0.084. His raw talent is clear at +2462, but that MC and poor fit suggest caution — something in his game doesn't fully translate to this venue.
Nicolai Hojgaard
Hall's Putting Could Unlock Alpine Birdie-Fest
Harry Hall ranks #2 in SG Putting (+0.40) and #5 in SG Total (+0.62) while carrying a slightly positive course fit adjustment (+0.007). At +3440 fair odds, his combination of elite putting and overall form makes him one of the more balanced mid-tier profiles in the field.
Harry Hall
Paratore's History Boosts A Deep Longshot
Renato Paratore owns the highest course history adjustment in the entire field at +0.184 strokes, yet his fair odds sit at +25987, reflecting limited current form. He's a classic speculative play — a player whose familiarity with Crans-sur-Sierre Golf Club could outperform his raw strokes gained numbers suggest in the right conditions.
Renato Paratore
🔥 Form Climbers · Last 3 Starts
Yurav Premlall
Danish Golf Championship 75 → Nexo Championship T57 → Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo T26
▲49spots
Davis Bryant
BMW International Open T50 → Nexo Championship T49 → Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo T9
▲41spots
Sergio Garcia
United Kingdom T42 → New York T11 → Indianapolis T3
▲39spots
Complete Betting Board
| # | Player | Why They Could Win | Win Odds GolfData API |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ryan Gerard
USA - OWGR #22
CONTENDER
|
A solo 3rd at the TOUR Championship is the headline, and it's backed up by a runner-up at the AfrAsia Bank Mauritius Open and another 2nd at the Valero Texas Open — this is a guy who gets into contention. The +1.42 SG Total leads this field on paper, with every category in the green and a tidy +0.54 off the tee that should play well on Crans' tight corridors. First trip to the Alps, so the +164 top-10 number is the cleaner bet than the +1248 outright while the model figures out the fit.
|
+1248 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+1248
Top 5+305
Top 10+164
Recent Form
TOUR Championship (May 10): 3 • Cadillac Championship (May 3): T30 • AfrAsia Bank Mauritius Open (Dec 21): 2 • Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship (Nov 9): T56 • BMW PGA Championship (Sep 14): T38 • Amgen Irish Open (Sep 7): MC • Valero Texas Open (Mar 9): 2 • Bank of Utah Championship (Oct 13): T20 • Travelers Championship (Jul 28): T44 • PGA Championship (Jul 14): T70 • John Deere Classic (May 5): MC • BMW Championship (Apr 7): T16 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Mar 10): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History—
|
|||
| 2 |
Matt Wallace
ENG - OWGR #58
CONTENDER
|
Runner-up here in 2025 is the whole ballgame — the course history bump (+0.067) is one of the biggest in the field, and he's added a 2nd at the Italian Open and a T2 at the Valero Texas Open to the résumé since. The +0.51 SG Approach is real, and Crans is an iron-play chess match where his precision travels. At +200 to crack the top 10 with a demonstrated ceiling on this exact track, the model's read is that he's a legitimate repeat threat, not a one-week fluke.
|
+1568 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T2
2024NA
2023NA
Win+1568
Top 5+376
Top 10+200
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T15 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): 2 • Cadillac Championship (May 3): T23 • Qatar Masters (Feb 8): T20 • Sanderson Farms Championship (Feb 7): MC • Dubai Invitational (Jan 18): T7 • BMW PGA Championship (Sep 14): T46 • Omega European Masters (Aug 31): T2 • Betfred British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 24): T33 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 17): T64 • Valero Texas Open (Mar 9): T2 • Hero Dubai Desert Classic (Jan 19): T45 • Bank of Utah Championship (Oct 13): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History+0.07
|
|||
| 3 |
Nicolai Hojgaard
DEN - OWGR #39
CONTENDER
|
Missed the cut here in 2025, and the model isn't hiding it — both the course fit (-0.084) and course history (-0.064) adjustments are meaningfully negative. That said, the ball-striking profile is legit: +0.36 off the tee and +0.30 approach, plus a T3 at Abu Dhabi and T4 at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic prove he can stack rounds on international setups. The +2462 outright is a stab; the +301 top-10 is where the model actually thinks the profile lives.
|
+2462 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+2462
Top 5+573
Top 10+301
Recent Form
Cadillac Championship (May 3): T23 • Sanderson Farms Championship (Feb 7): MC • Hero Dubai Desert Classic (Jan 25): T4 • Dubai Invitational (Jan 18): T52 • DP World Tour Championship (Nov 16): T11 • Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship (Nov 9): T3 • BMW PGA Championship (Sep 14): MC • Omega European Masters (Aug 31): MC • Betfred British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 24): T2 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 17): T34 • Hero Dubai Desert Classic (Jan 19): T65 • Travelers Championship (Jul 28): T14 • PGA Championship (Jul 14): T44
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.08
Course History-0.06
|
|||
| 4 |
Rasmus Hojgaard
DEN - OWGR #76
CONTENDER
|
A T2 at the Danish Golf Championship most recently, a T2 here at Crans in 2025, and a T3 at the Sanderson Farms — the twin has quietly built a résumé of near-misses that the model rewards with a +0.048 course history adjustment. The +0.37 SG Putting is the engine, and Crans' poa greens have historically produced hot putting weeks that flip leaderboards. Course fit reads slightly negative (-0.077), so +337 to top-10 is the cleanest angle on the profile.
|
+2782 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T2
2024NA
2023NA
Win+2782
Top 5+644
Top 10+337
Recent Form
Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T2 • Sanderson Farms Championship (Feb 7): T3 • DP World Tour Championship (Nov 16): 7 • Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship (Nov 9): T23 • BMW PGA Championship (Sep 14): MC • Omega European Masters (Aug 31): T2 • Betfred British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 24): T13 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 17): 2 • Hero Dubai Desert Classic (Jan 19): T14 • PGA Championship (Jul 14): T65 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 23): T43 • ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic (May 12): T24 • U.S. Open (Mar 3): T46
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.08
Course History+0.05
|
|||
| 5 |
Marco Penge
ENG - OWGR #53
CONTENDER
|
Won the Danish Golf Championship and the Open de España within a two-month stretch, added a T6 at the British Masters, and posted T8 at Crans in his 2025 debut — this is a player in the middle of a career arc, not a random name at +2862. The +0.56 SG Off-the-Tee is the standout number and it fits a course that penalizes crooked drives more than pure length. Approach (+0.05) is the wobble; if the irons show up, the top-5 at +661 is the play.
|
+2862 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T8
2024NA
2023NA
Win+2862
Top 5+661
Top 10+345
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T6 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): T9 • Nedbank Golf Challenge in honour of Gary Player (Dec 7): T43 • BMW Australian PGA Championship (Nov 30): T25 • DP World Tour Championship (Nov 16): T22 • Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship (Nov 9): T9 • Open de España presented by Madrid (Oct 12): 1 • Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (Oct 5): T91 • BMW PGA Championship (Sep 14): T13 • Amgen Irish Open (Sep 7): T50 • Omega European Masters (Aug 31): T8 • Betfred British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 24): T6 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 17): 1
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.09
Course History+0.01
|
|||
| 6 |
Harry Hall
ENG - OWGR #73
CONTENDER
|
The short game is the entire pitch here: +0.29 around the green and +0.40 putting are elite marks in this field, and Crans' small, sloped greens amplify that edge every year. The concern is off the tee at -0.27 and zero reps on the course, which is why the model is at +3440 and not lower despite a solid recent baseline (T17 at the TOUR Championship, 6th at the BMW Championship earlier this year). The +367 top-10 price captures a realistic ceiling without needing the driver to cooperate all four days.
|
+3440 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+3440
Top 5+735
Top 10+367
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T30 • TOUR Championship (May 10): T17 • Cadillac Championship (May 3): T30 • Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (Oct 5): T83 • FedEx Open de France (Sep 21): MC • BMW PGA Championship (Sep 14): T13 • Valero Texas Open (Mar 9): T26 • Travelers Championship (Jul 28): T51 • PGA Championship (Jul 14): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 23): T40 • ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic (May 12): T20 • BMW Championship (Apr 7): 6 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Mar 10): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History—
|
|||
| 7 |
Keita Nakajima
JPN - OWGR #93
CONTENDER
|
T17 at Crans in 2025 in his only look, a T4 at the Nexo Championship, and a runner-up at the DP World India Championship — the résumé says he travels and posts on non-PGA setups. Nothing in the SG profile jumps off the page (+0.48 total, evenly distributed), which is why the outright number sits at +3543. The course history adjustment is a mild positive (+0.023), and at +375 to top-10 the model likes him as a lean-in for placement markets more than a genuine winner.
|
+3543 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T17
2024NA
2023NA
Win+3543
Top 5+749
Top 10+375
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): MC • Nexo Championship (Aug 23): T4 • Golf Nippon Series JT Cup (Dec 7): T23 • DP World Tour Championship (Nov 16): T16 • Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship (Nov 9): T12 • Genesis Championship (Oct 26): T54 • DP World India Championship (Oct 19): 2 • FedEx Open de France (Sep 21): T49 • BMW PGA Championship (Sep 14): MC • Amgen Irish Open (Sep 7): MC • Omega European Masters (Aug 31): T17 • Betfred British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 24): 4 • BMW International Open (Jul 6): T58
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.02
|
|||
| 8 |
Eugenio Chacarra
ESP - OWGR #64
CONTENDER
|
The +0.55 SG Approach is one of the better iron numbers in the field, and on a course where wedge control into elevated greens decides the tournament, that's the skill you want. Problem is there's almost nothing else to hang your hat on — no Crans history, a missed cut at the PGA Championship, and a thin recent sample headlined by a T9 at the Tulum Championship. The -0.033 fit adjustment reflects the uncertainty; +3638 is a dart, and the +367 top-10 is the more defensible slice.
|
+3638 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+3638
Top 5+741
Top 10+367
Recent Form
Tulum Championship at PGA Riviera Maya (May 4): T9 • PGA Championship (Jul 14): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 10): T52 • The Open Championship (Jul 30): T46 • Puerto Rico Open (Mar 23): T21
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History-0.02
|
|||
| 9 |
Patrick Reed
USA - OWGR #35
CONTENDER
|
Two DP World Tour wins in a three-start January stretch — the Hero Dubai Desert Classic and the Qatar Masters, sandwiching a runner-up in Bahrain — remind you this profile still has serious pop when it's clicking. The form has cooled (T55 at the British Masters, MC at the BMW International), but the all-around SG line is genuinely well-rounded: +0.34 approach, +0.25 around the green, +0.10 putting, with only OTT (-0.19) as a soft spot. Crans is a debut, so there's no history to lean on, but the model's +381 to crack the top 10 fits a player this multi-dimensional on a shot-maker's track.
|
+3756 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+3756
Top 5+775
Top 10+381
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T55 • Nexo Championship (Aug 23): T30 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): MC • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T45 • Joburg Open (Mar 8): T10 • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T29 • Qatar Masters (Feb 8): 1 • Bapco Energies Bahrain Championship (Feb 1): T2 • Hero Dubai Desert Classic (Jan 25): 1 • Dubai Invitational (Jan 18): 26 • DP World Tour Championship (Nov 16): T28 • Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship (Nov 9): T49 • Open de España presented by Madrid (Oct 12): T16
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History-0.01
|
|||
| 10 |
Thomas Detry
BEL - OWGR #88
CONTENDER
|
The putter is doing the heavy lifting here — +0.37 SG Putting is one of the top marks in the field, and it's paired with +0.18 off the tee on a course where positioning trumps power. Recent form is quietly steady: T10 at the BMW Championship in Indy, T5 at the Andalucia, T5 in Mexico City, a runner-up in Hong Kong, and a T3 in South Africa all inside 2025. The iron play (-0.01) and short game (-0.06) are the concerns, and Crans is a first look, which is why the model likes the +415 top-10 more than the +3954 outright.
|
+3954 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+3954
Top 5+833
Top 10+415
Recent Form
Indianapolis (Aug 23): T10 • New York (Aug 9): T17 • United Kingdom (Jul 26): T31 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): MC • Andalucia (Jun 7): T5 • Korea (May 31): T41 • Soudal Open (May 24): T53 • Virginia (May 10): T6 • Mexico City (Apr 19): T5 • South Africa (Mar 22): T3 • Singapore (Mar 15): T15 • Hong Kong (Mar 8): 2 • Adelaide (Feb 15): 31
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History+0.01
|
|||
| 11 |
Casey Jarvis
RSA - OWGR #70
CONTENDER
|
Back-to-back DP World Tour wins in February at the Magical Kenya Open and the Investec South African Open, plus a T2 at the Joburg Open a week later — that three-event stretch is why the course history adjustment sits at a hefty +0.086 despite a modest T41 debut here in '25. The catch: he's missed six of his last eight cuts, including at the British Masters and Nexo. The +0.23 approach and +0.25 OTT still play on this track, but the model's +455 top-10 is priced for a bounce-back, not a certainty.
|
+4401 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T41
2024NA
2023NA
Win+4401
Top 5+901
Top 10+455
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): MC • Nexo Championship (Aug 23): MC • BMW International Open (Jul 5): T38 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): MC • KLM Open (Jun 7): MC • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): MC • Soudal Open (May 24): T22 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): T13 • Joburg Open (Mar 8): T2 • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): 1 • Magical Kenya Open presented by absa (Feb 22): 1 • NTT DATA Pro-Am brought to you by Standard Bank (Feb 15): T13 • Qatar Masters (Feb 8): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.09
|
|||
| 12 |
Angel Ayora
ESP - OWGR #130
CONTENDER
|
A T8 at Crans in his 2025 debut says the eye test on this course is real, and it's backed by a T3 at the KLM Open and a solo 5th at the Italian Open in a recent European swing. The iron play (+0.28) and driving (+0.20) are the drivers of a +0.34 SG Total profile that fits shot-maker tracks. The short game (-0.05) and putter (-0.10) are the tax, and the course fit adjustment is actually slightly negative (-0.052), which is why the model settles at +953 for the top 5 rather than anything shorter.
|
+4484 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T8
2024NA
2023NA
Win+4484
Top 5+953
Top 10+478
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T46 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T46 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): MC • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): 5 • KLM Open (Jun 7): T3 • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): MC • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T18 • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): T33 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): T11 • Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO (Mar 22): T28 • Joburg Open (Mar 8): T18 • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T9 • Magical Kenya Open presented by absa (Feb 22): 8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History+0.01
|
|||
| 13 |
Daniel Hillier
NZL - OWGR #100
CONTENDER
|
A solo runner-up finish at the Husqvarna British Masters is the freshest data point, and it pairs with a New Zealand Open title in March and a runner-up at the Dubai Invitational in January — three top-2s in 2025 is a serious ceiling signal. The engine is +0.45 SG OTT and +0.24 approach, but the -0.32 around-the-green mark is a genuine problem on a course that punishes stray wedges. No prior starts here and a -0.037 course history adjustment temper things, which is why the +482 top-10 is the cleanest read on the profile.
|
+4770 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+4770
Top 5+969
Top 10+482
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T2 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): MC • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): MC • KLM Open (Jun 7): T14 • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T7 • Soudal Open (May 24): MC • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): MC • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): MC • 105th New Zealand Open presented by Millbrook Resort (Mar 1): 1 • Qatar Masters (Feb 8): T20 • Bapco Energies Bahrain Championship (Feb 1): T4 • Hero Dubai Desert Classic (Jan 25): T26 • Dubai Invitational (Jan 18): 2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History-0.04
|
|||
| 14 |
Antoine Rozner
FRA - OWGR #238
VALUE
|
A T33 at Crans in '25 doesn't scream anything, yet the model's course history adjustment is a surprisingly strong +0.087 — probably weighting the shot-shape fit more than the finish. The trend line has been quietly firming: T13 at the Danish Golf Championship and T21 at the British Masters after a rougher spring. The overall SG profile is thin at +0.13 total, with the +0.23 approach as the only real strength, so the +5019 outright is a stretch and the +472 top-10 is the honest read.
|
+5019 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T33
2024NA
2023NA
Win+5019
Top 5+966
Top 10+472
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T21 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T13 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T60 • KLM Open (Jun 7): T55 • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T26 • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): T17 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T29 • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): T8 • Joburg Open (Mar 8): MC • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T24 • Magical Kenya Open presented by absa (Feb 22): T14 • Qatar Masters (Feb 8): T9 • Sanderson Farms Championship (Feb 7): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.09
|
|||
| 15 |
Jayden Schaper
RSA - OWGR #92
VALUE
|
The recent form section is brutal — four straight major MCs (PGA, U.S. Open, Scottish, Open) plus a missed cut at Crans in his '25 debut is a five-event skid at the level. The SG profile isn't the issue: +0.28 total with +0.20 off the tee is respectable, and the course fit adjustment (+0.033) is one of the more favorable in this batch. But when the model prices you at +5210 with a +487 top-10, it's saying the tools are there and the results aren't, and there's no evidence yet the results are coming.
|
+5210 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+5210
Top 5+1014
Top 10+487
Recent Form
PGA Championship (Jul 14): MC • U.S. Open (Mar 3): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 10): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 30): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History-0.02
|
|||
| 16 |
Sergio Garcia
ESP - OWGR #145
VALUE
|
A T3 at LIV Indianapolis is the headline recent result, and it slots into a genuinely strong 2025 individual line on the Saudi-backed circuit: solo 2nd in Virginia, solo 4th in Andalucia, T8 in Hong Kong, T11 in New York. The +0.26 OTT and +0.11 approach translate, but the -0.21 putting is the reason the +5985 outright is a hard sell — you can't win at Crans three-putting greens this small. The +574 top-10 is where the model actually lives on this profile, and the +0.041 course history adjustment (despite no prior starts here) hints the fit projects fine.
|
+5985 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+5985
Top 5+1174
Top 10+574
Recent Form
Indianapolis (Aug 23): T3 • New York (Aug 9): T11 • United Kingdom (Jul 26): T42 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): MC • Andalucia (Jun 7): 4 • Korea (May 31): T29 • Virginia (May 10): 2 • Mexico City (Apr 19): T39 • South Africa (Mar 22): T17 • Singapore (Mar 15): T35 • Hong Kong (Mar 8): T8 • Adelaide (Feb 15): T37 • Riyadh (Feb 7): T30
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.04
|
|||
| 17 |
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
DEN - OWGR #84
VALUE
|
A T8 debut at Crans in '25 is the anchor here, and the profile behind it holds up — +0.42 SG off the tee leading a positive +0.28 SG Total, plus a Crown Australian Open title in December and a T3 at the DP World Tour Championship in November. The Danish Golf Championship MC and a middling BMW International Open finish take some shine off the recent form, but at +602 for a top 10 the model likes the placement value more than the +6379 outright.
|
+6379 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T8
2024NA
2023NA
Win+6379
Top 5+1255
Top 10+602
Recent Form
Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): MC • BMW International Open (Jul 5): 56 • Hero Dubai Desert Classic (Jan 25): T45 • Dubai Invitational (Jan 18): 19 • Crown Australian Open (Dec 7): 1 • BMW Australian PGA Championship (Nov 30): MC • DP World Tour Championship (Nov 16): T3 • Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship (Nov 9): T23 • Genesis Championship (Oct 26): T65 • Open de España presented by Madrid (Oct 12): T5 • Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (Oct 5): T50 • BMW PGA Championship (Sep 14): T20 • Amgen Irish Open (Sep 7): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.02
|
|||
| 18 |
Sudarshan Yellamaraju
CAN - OWGR #109
VALUE
|
No Crans reps and a course fit adjustment of -0.03 makes this a genuine dart throw, but the underlying skills aren't bad — +0.33 SG Total driven by +0.14 approach, and a Victorian PGA solo 7th plus a T8 at the RBC Canadian Open show he can post when things click. The +665 top-10 number is where the model sees the path; the +6885 outright is hard to talk yourself into for a player ranked #109 with zero course knowledge.
|
+6885 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+6885
Top 5+1371
Top 10+665
Recent Form
Cadillac Championship (May 3): T30 • Victorian PGA Championship (Dec 14): 7 • BMW Australian PGA Championship (Nov 30): T25 • UNC Health Championship presented by STITCH (Jul 13): WD • Korn Ferry Tour Championship presented by United Leasing & Finance (May 4): T24 • Valero Texas Open (Mar 9): T14 • PGA Championship (Jul 14): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 23): T8 • John Deere Classic (May 5): MC • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Mar 10): T47 • Albertsons Boise Open presented Chevron (Mar 10): MC • U.S. Open (Mar 3): MC • Utah Championship presented by Zions Bank and Intermountain Health (Mar 3): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History—
|
|||
| 19 |
Guido Migliozzi
ITA - OWGR #275
VALUE
|
The negative strokes-gained profile (-0.41 total, -0.23 approach) is the ugliest in this batch, so the entire case rests on Crans loving him — a +0.176 course history adjustment is enormous, and a T13 here in '25 plus a T2 at the Turkish Airlines Open in May confirm he can flash on the right layouts. At +718 to crack the top 10 the model is leaning almost entirely on course fit, which is a shaky foundation given three missed cuts in his last six starts.
|
+7975 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T13
2024NA
2023NA
Win+7975
Top 5+1516
Top 10+718
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T37 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): MC • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T35 • KLM Open (Jun 7): T28 • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): MC • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): MC • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T2 • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): T13 • Magical Kenya Open presented by absa (Feb 22): MC • Qatar Masters (Feb 8): T36 • Bapco Energies Bahrain Championship (Feb 1): T47 • Hero Dubai Desert Classic (Jan 25): MC • Dubai Invitational (Jan 18): T33
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.18
|
|||
| 20 |
Hennie Du Plessis
RSA - OWGR #126
VALUE
|
Runner-up at the BMW International Open in July is the ceiling result the model is chasing, and it's not a fluke — a solo 4th at the Joburg Open, a T2 at the Investec South African Open, and a solo 3rd at the Magical Kenya Open give him four top-4s in 2025. The -0.34 putting number is the concern on Crans's small greens, but with +0.17 off the tee and +0.13 approach, the +725 top-10 is the market that fits the profile best.
|
+8108 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+8108
Top 5+1503
Top 10+725
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): MC • BMW International Open (Jul 5): 2 • KLM Open (Jun 7): MC • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T40 • Soudal Open (May 24): T63 • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): MC • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): MC • Joburg Open (Mar 8): 4 • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T2 • Magical Kenya Open presented by absa (Feb 22): 3 • Qatar Masters (Feb 8): T15 • Bapco Energies Bahrain Championship (Feb 1): T16 • Hero Dubai Desert Classic (Jan 25): T19
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History+0.02
|
|||
| 21 |
Ignacio Elvira Mijares
ESP - OWGR #131
VALUE
|
Solo 2nd at the Husqvarna British Masters is a legitimate springboard, and it stacks with a T11 at the KLM Open and a T7 at the Bapco Energies Bahrain Championship earlier in the year. The strokes-gained profile is thin (-0.35 total, -0.38 off the tee), so the case leans hard on a +0.136 course history adjustment despite just a T55 here in '25. Top 10 at +735 is the sensible market — the +8583 outright is a stretch even with the momentum.
|
+8583 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T55
2024NA
2023NA
Win+8583
Top 5+1578
Top 10+735
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T2 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): T16 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T25 • KLM Open (Jun 7): T11 • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): MC • Soudal Open (May 24): MC • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): T25 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): MC • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): MC • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): T34 • Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO (Mar 22): MC • Qatar Masters (Feb 8): 14 • Bapco Energies Bahrain Championship (Feb 1): T7
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.14
|
|||
| 22 |
David Puig
ESP - OWGR #79
VALUE
|
The LIV schedule complicates the read, but a runner-up in Mexico City in April and a T5 at LIV Andalucia are real results, and the +0.43 SG Putting number is the best in this group. The problem is -0.42 SG Approach at a course that demands precision iron play — the -0.069 course fit adjustment reflects that, and with zero prior Crans starts the +8842 outright is asking the putter to carry everything.
|
+8842 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+8842
Top 5+1538
Top 10+718
Recent Form
Indianapolis (Aug 23): 49 • New York (Aug 9): T22 • United Kingdom (Jul 26): T12 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T48 • Andalucia (Jun 7): T5 • Korea (May 31): T16 • Virginia (May 10): T12 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T18 • Mexico City (Apr 19): 2 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): MC • South Africa (Mar 22): T6 • Singapore (Mar 15): T21 • Hong Kong (Mar 8): T8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History—
|
|||
| 23 |
Bernd Wiesberger
AUT - OWGR #162
VALUE
|
Won the Volvo China Open in April and finished solo 3rd at the BMW International Open in July, so the ceiling flashes are there — but a T55 at Crans in '25 and a -0.27 SG Total are why he's priced at +9060. The +0.17 around the green is actually a real fit for Crans's short-game demands, and the +0.041 course fit adjustment agrees. At +758 for a top 10 the model sees a placement lane; anything more is fantasy.
|
+9060 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T55
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9060
Top 5+1639
Top 10+758
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T37 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T39 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): 3 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): MC • KLM Open (Jun 7): T21 • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T4 • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): T13 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T13 • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): 1 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): MC • Joburg Open (Mar 8): T12 • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T14 • Magical Kenya Open presented by absa (Feb 22): T42
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.00
|
|||
| 24 |
Marcus Helligkilde
DEN - OWGR #-
VALUE
|
The DP World Tour rookie doesn't have full strokes-gained data, so the model is working with form and a +0.071 course history adjustment on zero prior Crans starts — which is generous. The T7 at the Danish Golf Championship and T14 at the KLM Open are the two data points worth citing, but three MCs in his last six leave the +9785 outright looking exactly like what it is. The +941 top-10 is the only market with any realistic path.
|
+9785 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9785
Top 5+1957
Top 10+941
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T26 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T7 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): MC • KLM Open (Jun 7): T14 • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): MC • Soudal Open (May 24): MC • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): MC • Corales Puntacana Championship (Mar 25): T15 • ISCO Championship (Jul 19): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.07
|
|||
| 25 |
Calum Hill
SCO - OWGR #157
VALUE
|
A runner-up at the Qatar Masters in February is the ceiling to point to, but nothing since has matched it — MC at the Husqvarna British Masters, T67 at the Danish, and a middling stretch of T14/T17/T19 European starts. The +0.33 SG Putting is the only positive skill on the sheet, with approach (-0.23) and off-the-tee (-0.37) both underwater. At +9984 with zero prior starts at Crans, the model is essentially pricing him as a warm body with a hot putter.'
|
+9984 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9984
Top 5+1846
Top 10+869
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): MC • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T67 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): T30 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T19 • KLM Open (Jun 7): T14 • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T17 • Soudal Open (May 24): T59 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): T6 • Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO (Mar 22): T45 • Joburg Open (Mar 8): MC • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T20 • Magical Kenya Open presented by absa (Feb 22): MC • Qatar Masters (Feb 8): 2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.01
|
|||
| 26 |
Ugo Coussaud
FRA - OWGR #250
VALUE
|
T17 in his Crans debut in 2025 is a real toehold, and it pairs with a solo 3rd at the Hero Indian Open and a solo 6th at the Bapco Bahrain Championship earlier in the year to sketch out a mid-tier DP World profile. Since then it's been steady but unspectacular — T30/T30/T17 sprinkled around a couple of missed cuts — and every strokes-gained category sits marginally red. The -0.025 course fit adjustment is the tell: at +849 to crack the top 10, the model likes the number better than a win swing at +10052.
|
+10052 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T17
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10052
Top 5+1825
Top 10+849
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T30 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): T30 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): MC • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T17 • Soudal Open (May 24): MC • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): T25 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T9 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): T3 • Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO (Mar 22): T17 • Joburg Open (Mar 8): MC • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T73 • Qatar Masters (Feb 8): MC • Bapco Energies Bahrain Championship (Feb 1): 6
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History+0.00
|
|||
| 27 |
Haotong Li
CHN - OWGR #124
VALUE
|
The best pure ballstriker in this longshot batch on paper — +0.20 off the tee and neutral approach — with a T8 at last year's DP World Tour Championship and a T10 at Nedbank showing the ceiling is real when he's dialed. Crans history is thin but positive (T24 in 2025), and the +0.033 course history adjustment nudges the model. The short game is the leak (-0.36 around the green, -0.17 putting), which is why +889 for a top 10 is where the interest lives, not the +10156 win number.
|
+10156 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T24
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10156
Top 5+1892
Top 10+889
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T37 • Nexo Championship (Aug 23): MC • Nedbank Golf Challenge in honour of Gary Player (Dec 7): T10 • DP World Tour Championship (Nov 16): T8 • Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship (Nov 9): T32 • Genesis Championship (Oct 26): T21 • Open de España presented by Madrid (Oct 12): MC • Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (Oct 5): T61 • BMW PGA Championship (Sep 14): T70 • Amgen Irish Open (Sep 7): MC • Omega European Masters (Aug 31): T24 • Betfred British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 24): T8 • BMW International Open (Jul 6): T38
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.03
Course History+0.03
|
|||
| 28 |
Nathan Kimsey
ENG - OWGR #260
VALUE
|
Missed the cut at Crans in his only prior look, and the -0.047 course history adjustment is the worst in this group — the model is actively fading the fit. A T6 at the Volvo China Open in April and a T8 at the Soudal Open are the season highlights, but the recent stretch (T30, MC, MC, WD) has been rough. At +10227 with negative approach numbers and a cold putter, the win case is essentially non-existent; a top-20 sniff is the realistic ceiling.
|
+10227 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10227
Top 5+1834
Top 10+871
Recent Form
Nexo Championship (Aug 23): T30 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): MC • BMW International Open (Jul 5): MC • KLM Open (Jun 7): WD • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T17 • Soudal Open (May 24): T8 • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): MC • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T29 • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): T6 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): MC • Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO (Mar 22): MC • Joburg Open (Mar 8): T12 • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T9
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History-0.05
|
|||
| 29 |
Paul Casey
ENG - OWGR #501
VALUE
|
The +0.28 SG Approach is easily the best number in this batch and by far Casey's strongest remaining skill at age 47 — the rest of the profile (OWGR #501, -0.34 putting, -0.19 total) tells you why he's a longshot. A T6 in New York on LIV and a T24 at Crans in 2025 are the flickers of life, and the +0.033 course history adjustment nods to the fit. At +10614 the win path is hard to see, but the iron play makes him a defensible top-20 dart.
|
+10614 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T24
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10614
Top 5+1855
Top 10+841
Recent Form
Indianapolis (Aug 23): T45 • New York (Aug 9): T6 • United Kingdom (Jul 26): T23 • Virginia (May 10): T14 • Mexico City (Apr 19): T35 • South Africa (Mar 22): T38 • Singapore (Mar 15): T21 • Hong Kong (Mar 8): T14 • Adelaide (Feb 15): T54 • Riyadh (Feb 7): T17 • Omega European Masters (Aug 31): T24 • Michigan (Team Final—Stroke Play) (Aug 24): n/a • Indianapolis (Aug 17): T27
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.03
|
|||
| 30 |
Romain Langasque
FRA - OWGR #326
VALUE
|
A T7 at the Danish Golf Championship and a T11 at the Italian Open are the two data points holding this case together, along with a T9 at the Magical Kenya Open back in February. The -0.43 SG Approach is a genuine problem at a course that rewards precision, and the -0.019 course history adjustment reflects a middling T33 debut at Crans. Short game (+0.10) and putter (+0.15) are keeping him afloat, but at +10711 the model isn't projecting anything close to a win path.
|
+10711 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T33
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10711
Top 5+1915
Top 10+882
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): MC • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T7 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): T16 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T11 • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T54 • Soudal Open (May 24): T53 • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): T70 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T53 • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): T52 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): MC • Joburg Open (Mar 8): T28 • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T24 • Magical Kenya Open presented by absa (Feb 22): T9
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History-0.02
|
|||
| 31 |
Tom Vaillant
FRA - OWGR #345
VALUE
|
The +0.051 course history adjustment is the standout item here — best in this batch — anchored by a T17 debut at Crans in 2025 that the model reads as a genuine fit signal. A T6 at the Volvo China Open in April and a T13 at the Soudal Open are the supporting evidence, though the strokes-gained profile is all negative except for a modest +0.12 putter. At +873 for a top 10, the course-fit angle is the entire pitch; the +10970 win number is a lottery ticket.
|
+10970 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T17
2024NA
2023NA
Win+10970
Top 5+1874
Top 10+873
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T21 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): MC • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T55 • KLM Open (Jun 7): MC • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T26 • Soudal Open (May 24): T13 • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): T31 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): MC • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): T6 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): T50 • Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO (Mar 22): T34 • Magical Kenya Open presented by absa (Feb 22): MC • Qatar Masters (Feb 8): T44
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.05
|
|||
| 32 |
Niklas Norgaard
DEN - OWGR #249
VALUE
|
Ugliest strokes-gained line in this batch by a mile: -0.41 total, -0.38 approach, -0.40 around the green, and a form log that reads MC-MC-MC-MC across most of his PGA Tour starts this year. A T5 at the Myrtle Beach Classic in May is the lone bright spot, and there's no Crans history to lean on either. The +0.038 course history adjustment is a curiosity, not a case — at +11416 with a -0.051 course fit ding, this is one of the thinnest win profiles in the field.
|
+11416 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+11416
Top 5+2108
Top 10+994
Recent Form
Sanderson Farms Championship (Feb 7): MC • Valero Texas Open (Mar 9): MC • PGA Championship (Jul 14): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 23): MC • ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic (May 12): T5 • U.S. Open (Mar 3): T43 • Texas Children's Houston Open (Sep 24): MC • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson (Aug 13): T33 • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Aug 6): MC • Wyndham Championship (Apr 30): MC • Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches (Mar 19): T25 • Farmers Insurance Open (Sep 4): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 10): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.05
Course History+0.04
|
|||
| 33 |
Alejandro Del Rey
ESP - OWGR #228
VALUE
|
A T3 at the Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship and a T8 at the Volvo China Open are the peaks on this résumé, but everything since has been noise — MC-MC-MC in the summer stretch before a T16 at the BMW International Open steadied things. The +0.19 off the tee is the only positive skill number in his bag, with approach sitting at -0.33 and a T41 debut here in 2025 that produced a slightly negative -0.063 fit grade. The model lists him at +957 to crack the top 10, and even that feels like it's leaning on the Catalunya spike.
|
+11461 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T41
2024NA
2023NA
Win+11461
Top 5+2065
Top 10+957
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T46 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T70 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): T16 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): MC • KLM Open (Jun 7): MC • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): MC • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): T3 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T29 • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): T8 • Joburg Open (Mar 8): T57 • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T14 • Magical Kenya Open presented by absa (Feb 22): T56 • Qatar Masters (Feb 8): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.06
Course History+0.01
|
|||
| 34 |
Adrien Saddier
FRA - OWGR #147
VALUE
|
Won the Italian Open in June 2024 and followed it with a runner-up at the BMW PGA and a T5 at the Irish Open — that late-2024 heater is the entire reason his +0.101 course history adjustment leads this batch despite only one Crans start (T33 in 2025). The problem is 2025 itself: an MC at the Italian Open is his only listed result this calendar year, and the SG line reads -0.31 total with -0.27 off the tee. The model prices him at +934 to top-10 on the strength of that fit grade, but the current form file doesn't support chasing the +11528 win number.
|
+11528 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T33
2024NA
2023NA
Win+11528
Top 5+2020
Top 10+934
Recent Form
DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): MC • Nedbank Golf Challenge in honour of Gary Player (Dec 7): T18 • DP World Tour Championship (Nov 16): T24 • Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship (Nov 9): T41 • DP World India Championship (Oct 19): MC • Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (Oct 5): T138 • FedEx Open de France (Sep 21): T32 • BMW PGA Championship (Sep 14): 2 • Amgen Irish Open (Sep 7): T5 • Omega European Masters (Aug 31): T33 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 17): T24 • BMW International Open (Jul 6): T46 • Italian Open (Jun 29): 1
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.10
|
|||
| 35 |
Mikael Lindberg
SWE - OWGR #144
VALUE
|
Won the Turkish Airlines Open in May and finished 3rd at the Volvo China Open the week before — that April-May stretch is genuinely elite, and it's why he shows up at +12145 despite a -0.27 SG Total. The catch is what's happened since: MC at the British Masters, T53 in Denmark, MC at the Italian Open, and a -0.52 approach number that's the worst skill in this group. Crans gave him a T13 debut in 2025, so the +0.26 driving travels, but the +972 top-10 model price is asking the iron play to snap back overnight.
|
+12145 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T13
2024NA
2023NA
Win+12145
Top 5+2091
Top 10+972
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): MC • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T53 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): MC • KLM Open (Jun 7): T60 • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): MC • Soudal Open (May 24): T17 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): 1 • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): 3 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): MC • Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO (Mar 22): T45 • Magical Kenya Open presented by absa (Feb 22): T29 • Qatar Masters (Feb 8): T36 • Bapco Energies Bahrain Championship (Feb 1): T13
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.07
Course History+0.01
|
|||
| 36 |
Oihan Guillamoundeguy
FRA - OWGR #226
VALUE
|
No Crans history to lean on, but the recent form is the most interesting item in this batch: T4 at the BMW International Open, T3 at Catalunya, and T14/T16/T21 sprinkled across a schedule that's kept him relevant on the DP World Tour. The SG profile is thin (-0.21 total, -0.28 approach), and at OWGR #226 the win path is a stretch at +12322. The +973 to top-10 is where the model actually sees him — a live board-crasher whose ceiling shows up more than his floor.
|
+12322 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+12322
Top 5+2126
Top 10+973
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T37 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T21 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): T4 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T25 • KLM Open (Jun 7): MC • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T35 • Soudal Open (May 24): MC • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): T3 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): MC • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): T16 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): MC • Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO (Mar 22): MC • Magical Kenya Open presented by absa (Feb 22): T14
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History—
|
|||
| 37 |
Erik Van Rooyen
RSA - OWGR #210
VALUE
|
Barely plays anymore — seven listed starts across the entire form log with four MCs including at Crans in 2025 — and the SG numbers reflect it: -0.40 total, -0.51 approach, -0.24 off the tee. The short game is the only pulse (+0.11 around the green, +0.24 putting), and there's no realistic win case at +12915 for a player who's made two of his last five cuts. If you're touching this, it's the top-10 lottery ticket at +993, and even that requires the irons to find a level they haven't shown in months.
|
+12915 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+12915
Top 5+2124
Top 10+993
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T51 • BMW PGA Championship (Sep 14): T24 • Amgen Irish Open (Sep 7): T56 • Omega European Masters (Aug 31): MC • PGA Championship (Jul 14): MC • U.S. Open (Mar 3): MC • Zurich Classic of New Orleans (Aug 6): T17
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.03
|
|||
| 38 |
Jorge Campillo
ESP - OWGR #193
VALUE
|
Runner-up at the Soudal Open and 2nd at the Hainan Classic earlier in 2025 — two top-2 finishes on the DP World Tour that carry the entire case, because the four MCs in his last seven starts don't. The +0.24 approach and +0.14 around the green are legitimate skills, but -0.48 off the tee at a course that rewards driving is the exact wrong profile, which is why the course history adjustment sits at -0.059. The model lands at +924 top-10 mostly on the ballstriking blips, not the trend.
|
+12943 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+12943
Top 5+2047
Top 10+924
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T37 • Nexo Championship (Aug 23): MC • BMW International Open (Jul 5): MC • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T19 • KLM Open (Jun 7): MC • Soudal Open (May 24): T2 • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): T25 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): MC • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): MC • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): T20 • Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO (Mar 22): 2 • Joburg Open (Mar 8): T18 • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History-0.06
|
|||
| 39 |
Joost Luiten
NED - OWGR #225
VALUE
|
Worst SG Total in this batch at -0.59, and the only reason he's priced anywhere near the others is a +0.086 course history adjustment that has to be doing a lot of work given he has no listed prior starts at Crans in the data. The form log is a graveyard — five MCs in his last thirteen with a T7 at the Austrian Alpine Open as the lone bright spot. At OWGR #225 and +13693 to win, this is a name-recognition price on a player whose skill numbers are all underwater.
|
+13693 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+13693
Top 5+2232
Top 10+1005
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T37 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T26 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): MC • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): MC • KLM Open (Jun 7): T60 • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T7 • Soudal Open (May 24): T74 • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): MC • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): MC • Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO (Mar 22): T66 • Joburg Open (Mar 8): T28 • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): MC • Magical Kenya Open presented by absa (Feb 22): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History+0.09
|
|||
| 40 |
Thriston Lawrence
RSA - OWGR #183
VALUE
|
Defending champion after winning here in 2025, and that's the entire storyline — because everything since has been a slog. Six MCs across his last thirteen starts, a -0.60 SG Total that's the worst in this batch, and -0.32 putting that undercuts the +0.115 course history bump the model hands him. The +13725 win number is priced almost entirely on the title defense narrative and course fit, not current form; the +1086 to top-10 is the more honest expression if you insist on a swing.
|
+13725 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
20251
2024NA
2023NA
Win+13725
Top 5+2380
Top 10+1086
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T30 • SunBet Challenge Times Square Casino (Aug 7): T13 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): MC • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T74 • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): MC • Soudal Open (May 24): MC • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T53 • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): MC • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): 40 • Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO (Mar 22): T6 • Joburg Open (Mar 8): MC • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): MC • Magical Kenya Open presented by absa (Feb 22): T29
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.12
|
|||
| 41 |
Jesper Svensson
SWE - OWGR #180
VALUE
|
A T4 at the RBC Canadian Open is the lone splashy finish on a form log that otherwise reads T65-T24-T48-T38-72 across his most recent five starts. The underlying skills back up the malaise: -0.21 Approach, -0.25 Putting, and a -0.062 course fit adjustment on a track he's never seen. The model's +14358 to win and +1166 to crack the top 10 are essentially field-filler prices, and the profile doesn't argue otherwise.
|
+14358 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14358
Top 5+2505
Top 10+1166
Recent Form
Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T65 • Qatar Masters (Feb 8): T24 • Sanderson Farms Championship (Feb 7): T48 • Nedbank Golf Challenge in honour of Gary Player (Dec 7): T38 • Amgen Irish Open (Sep 7): 72 • Betfred British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 24): MC • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 17): T29 • Valero Texas Open (Mar 9): MC • Bank of Utah Championship (Oct 13): T15 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 23): T4 • ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic (May 12): MC • John Deere Classic (May 5): T44 • Charles Schwab Challenge (Oct 15): T46
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.06
Course History-0.04
|
|||
| 42 |
Todd Clements
ENG - OWGR #211
VALUE
|
The one thing propping up any Crans interest here is a T28 in his 2025 debut at the venue, but everything since has cratered — six missed cuts in his last ten starts, including the Husqvarna British Masters. Approach sits at -0.05, Putting at -0.12, and the SG Total of -0.4 doesn't paint a contender. The model's +1110 top-10 number is generous given how thin the recent evidence is.
|
+14393 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T28
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14393
Top 5+2399
Top 10+1110
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): MC • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T53 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): T38 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T11 • KLM Open (Jun 7): MC • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): MC • Soudal Open (May 24): MC • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): MC • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T13 • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): MC • Joburg Open (Mar 8): T28 • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T24 • Magical Kenya Open presented by absa (Feb 22): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History-0.02
|
|||
| 43 |
Martin Couvra
FRA - OWGR #182
VALUE
|
A T10 at the Nexo Championship is the freshest data point and the reason to squint at him, paired with earlier top-10s at the Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship and Hainan Classic. But he missed the cut here in his 2025 Crans debut, and the peripheral skills (-0.21 Putting, -0.03 Approach) don't scream breakthrough. The +14463 win price and +1077 top-10 fit a live-but-unlikely profile — dart territory.
|
+14463 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14463
Top 5+2406
Top 10+1077
Recent Form
Nexo Championship (Aug 23): T10 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): MC • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T55 • KLM Open (Jun 7): MC • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T35 • Soudal Open (May 24): T24 • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): T10 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T43 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): T20 • Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO (Mar 22): T9 • Joburg Open (Mar 8): MC • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T29 • Qatar Masters (Feb 8): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History-0.01
|
|||
| 44 |
Francesco Laporta
ITA - OWGR #270
VALUE
|
The season peaked back in February with a solo 2nd at the Investec South African Open and a 4th at the Magical Kenya Open, and it's been almost entirely downhill since — seven missed cuts in his last eleven starts, including at Crans in 2025. Approach at -0.27 and SG Total at -0.44 are the worst skill profile in this batch. The +14900 to win reflects a player the model has essentially written off.
|
+14900 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+14900
Top 5+2465
Top 10+1121
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): MC • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T53 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): MC • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T40 • Soudal Open (May 24): T17 • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): MC • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): MC • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): MC • Joburg Open (Mar 8): MC • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T2 • Magical Kenya Open presented by absa (Feb 22): 4 • Qatar Masters (Feb 8): T52 • Bapco Energies Bahrain Championship (Feb 1): T16
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History-0.03
|
|||
| 45 |
Joakim Lagergren
SWE - OWGR #171
LONGSHOT
|
A T8 at Crans in 2025 is legitimate course affinity, and the recent form shows a T9 at the Husqvarna British Masters plus a solo 4th at the DS Automobiles Italian Open. The problem is the ball-striking is genuinely broken — -0.49 Approach and -0.22 off the tee, with only a hot putter (+0.20) keeping the SG Total from being catastrophic. He'll need the flat stick to carry a full week to justify the +1211 top-10 number.
|
+15013 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T8
2024NA
2023NA
Win+15013
Top 5+2669
Top 10+1211
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T9 • Nexo Championship (Aug 23): T49 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): MC • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): 4 • KLM Open (Jun 7): MC • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): MC • Soudal Open (May 24): MC • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): T17 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T18 • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): T63 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): MC • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): MC • Magical Kenya Open presented by absa (Feb 22): T23
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History-0.03
|
|||
| 46 |
Darius Van Driel
NED - OWGR #237
LONGSHOT
|
The strongest course/fit combination in this batch — +0.041 course history adjustment and +0.047 course fit — anchored by a T28 at Crans in 2025 and top-10s at the Turkish Airlines Open (T4) and Volvo China Open (T8). The raw skills are ugly though: -0.28 off the tee, -0.15 Approach, -0.53 SG Total. The +1051 top-10 is the cleanest number in the group, but a win at +15285 requires the ball-striking to spike well above baseline.
|
+15285 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T28
2024NA
2023NA
Win+15285
Top 5+2324
Top 10+1051
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T30 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T33 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): 65 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T66 • KLM Open (Jun 7): MC • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T40 • Soudal Open (May 24): T13 • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): MC • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T4 • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): T8 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): T18 • Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO (Mar 22): T34 • Joburg Open (Mar 8): T62
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History+0.04
|
|||
| 47 |
Sam Bairstow
ENG - OWGR #378
LONGSHOT
|
OWGR #378 in the field with no Crans reps and a -0.38 Approach number that sits at the bottom of this batch — the case is thin. A T10 at the Nexo Championship and T19 at the Danish Golf Championship are recent flickers of life, and the putter (+0.12) is at least a positive. But at +15815 to win and +1172 to crack the top 10, the model is telling you exactly what this is: a punt with a shallow ceiling.
|
+15815 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+15815
Top 5+2675
Top 10+1172
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T21 • Nexo Championship (Aug 23): T10 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T19 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): T45 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): MC • KLM Open (Jun 7): MC • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): MC • Soudal Open (May 24): MC • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): T43 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T29 • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): T43 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): MC • Joburg Open (Mar 8): T62
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History—
|
|||
| 48 |
JC Ritchie
RSA - OWGR #167
LONGSHOT
|
Debuting at Crans with the best course history adjustment in this batch (+0.048) despite never having played it — the model likes the fit. The résumé leans on a T3 at the Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship and T9 at the Turkish Airlines Open back in May, but the summer has been middling (T55, T45, T48, T45). Approach at -0.39 is the drag on a +15857 win price; the +1149 top-10 is where any interest should live.
|
+15857 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+15857
Top 5+2589
Top 10+1149
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T55 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): T45 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T48 • KLM Open (Jun 7): T45 • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T17 • Soudal Open (May 24): MC • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): T3 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T9 • The Courier Guy Playoffs : DNi Tour Championship presented by RMB (Mar 29): T12 • The Courier Guy Playoffs : The Serengeti Playoffs (Mar 15): 4 • Joburg Open (Mar 8): MC • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T57 • Magical Kenya Open presented by absa (Feb 22): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.05
|
|||
| 49 |
Daniel Van Tonder
RSA - OWGR #283
LONGSHOT
|
Two T6s at the Joburg Open and Investec South African Open back in March feel like a different player than the one who's missed three cuts in his last seven starts, though a T16 at the Nexo Championship offers a pulse. The underlying numbers are ugly for a debut at Crans — negative marks across Total (-0.58), Approach (-0.26), and Putting (-0.41), with only a modest +0.033 course fit lifeline. At +15857 to win and +1307 for a top 10, the model isn't seeing a realistic path, and neither should you.
|
+15857 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+15857
Top 5+2814
Top 10+1307
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): MC • Nexo Championship (Aug 23): T16 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): MC • BMW International Open (Jul 5): T38 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T25 • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): MC • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): MC • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): MC • Joburg Open (Mar 8): T6 • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T6 • Magical Kenya Open presented by absa (Feb 22): T61 • Qatar Masters (Feb 8): T52 • Bapco Energies Bahrain Championship (Feb 1): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History+0.01
|
|||
| 50 |
Matteo Manassero
ITA - OWGR #404
LONGSHOT
|
The lone positive skill in his bag is the one Crans demands — a +0.29 Approach number that pairs with the strongest course fit adjustment in this group at +0.067. That's the case. Against it: OWGR #404, a -0.71 OTT that punishes a short, tree-lined layout, and a T40 in his only prior start here in 2025. The +1171 top-10 number is the model's most generous read on him, but the win price at +16029 tells you where the ceiling actually sits.
|
+16029 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
202540
2024NA
2023NA
Win+16029
Top 5+2653
Top 10+1171
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): MC • Nexo Championship (Aug 23): T16 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T33 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): 66 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): MC • KLM Open (Jun 7): T32 • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): MC • Soudal Open (May 24): T53 • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): MC • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T13 • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): MC • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): T9 • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History-0.01
|
|||
| 51 |
Adrian Meronk
POL - OWGR #501
LONGSHOT
|
The fall from grace continues — once a Ryder Cup conversation, now OWGR #501 with a -0.54 Approach number that's the worst in this batch. A T15 at the Husqvarna British Masters is the one recent bright spot in a stretch dominated by T28s and T41s on LIV. Crans debut, negative course fit (-0.018), and no iron game to lean on. The +16849 win price is polite; the profile suggests the +1257 top-10 is where any interest should live, and even that's thin.
|
+16849 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+16849
Top 5+2809
Top 10+1257
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T15 • Indianapolis (Aug 23): T34 • New York (Aug 9): T41 • United Kingdom (Jul 26): T28 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): T57 • Andalucia (Jun 7): 52 • Korea (May 31): T29 • Soudal Open (May 24): MC • Virginia (May 10): T21 • Mexico City (Apr 19): 38 • South Africa (Mar 22): T22 • Singapore (Mar 15): T35 • Hong Kong (Mar 8): T45
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History+0.03
|
|||
| 52 |
Marcus Kinhult
SWE - OWGR #351
LONGSHOT
|
Best course fit and course history combo in this batch — +0.049 fit and +0.053 history — even without prior Crans reps, and the model rewards him with a +1273 top-10 despite a -0.72 SG Total. The season has two real data points: a solo 2nd at the Soudal Open and a T4 at the Nexo Championship. Everything else is noise or missed cuts. Volatile profile, but the ceiling weeks are legitimate top-10 finishes on this tour.
|
+17547 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+17547
Top 5+2793
Top 10+1273
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): MC • Nexo Championship (Aug 23): T4 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T48 • KLM Open (Jun 7): T71 • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): MC • Soudal Open (May 24): T2 • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): T54 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T29 • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): T25 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): T50 • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): T71 • Magical Kenya Open presented by absa (Feb 22): MC • Qatar Masters (Feb 8): T24
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.05
Course History+0.05
|
|||
| 53 |
Dan Bradbury
ENG - OWGR #178
LONGSHOT
|
The Joburg Open winner from March is the highest-ranked player in this batch at OWGR #178, and the +0.16 Approach number is the second-best iron mark here. That's the pitch. The problem is a -0.047 course history adjustment — the worst in the group — a MC at the Husqvarna British Masters, and a short game (-0.32 ARG, -0.33 Putting) that bleeds strokes on a course where scrambling matters. The +1330 top-10 is where the model lands, but Crans specifically doesn't flatter him.
|
+18193 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+18193
Top 5+3030
Top 10+1330
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): MC • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T33 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): MC • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T41 • KLM Open (Jun 7): 65 • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): T6 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): MC • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): T59 • Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO (Mar 22): T17 • Joburg Open (Mar 8): 1 • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): MC • Magical Kenya Open presented by absa (Feb 22): MC • Qatar Masters (Feb 8): T5
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History-0.05
|
|||
| 54 |
Davis Bryant
USA - OWGR #169
LONGSHOT
|
A T9 at the Husqvarna British Masters is the freshest sign of life, and a solo 2nd at the Austrian Alpine Open earlier in the year proves the ceiling is real on continental Europe. Course fit grades out at +0.042, which helps offset a MC in his lone Crans start in 2025 (course history adjustment: -0.052). OWGR #169 is respectable for this tier, but the -0.39 OTT number on a course that requires shaping tee shots is the reason the +18534 win price sits where it does.
|
+18534 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025MC
2024NA
2023NA
Win+18534
Top 5+3000
Top 10+1302
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): T9 • Nexo Championship (Aug 23): T49 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): T50 • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): T48 • KLM Open (Jun 7): T38 • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): T2 • Soudal Open (May 24): T30 • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): T31 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): T29 • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): T19 • Hero Indian Open (Mar 29): T57 • Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO (Mar 22): T51 • Investec South African Open Championship (Mar 1): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History-0.05
|
|||
| 55 |
Jason Scrivener
AUS - OWGR #415
LONGSHOT
|
T33 at Crans in 2025 is the only reference point, and the model weights it lightly at +0.025 history with a stronger +0.045 fit. Recent form is a grind — a MC at the Husqvarna British Masters, a T30 at Nexo, a T21 at the Danish — with no top-10 on the ledger since March. Negative Approach (-0.37) and OTT (-0.35) numbers don't inspire confidence, and at OWGR #415 with a +1307 top-10, the model is essentially treating him as field filler.
|
+18650 |
|
Tournament History & Odds
2025T33
2024NA
2023NA
Win+18650
Top 5+3040
Top 10+1307
Recent Form
Husqvarna British Masters hosted by Sir Nick Faldo (Aug 30): MC • Nexo Championship (Aug 23): T30 • Danish Golf Championship (Aug 16): T21 • BMW International Open (Jul 5): MC • DS Automobiles 83° Open d’Italia (Jun 28): MC • KLM Open (Jun 7): T58 • Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol (May 31): MC • Soudal Open (May 24): T30 • Estrella Damm Catalunya Championship (May 10): T37 • Turkish Airlines Open (May 3): MC • Volvo China Open (Apr 26): MC • Hainan Classic presented by MAEXTRO (Mar 22): T55 • Joburg Open (Mar 8): T18
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
—
Top 10 Probability
—
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.03
|
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Round 1 — 3-Balls
| Grp | Tee Time | Hole | Player 1 | Odds | Player 2 | Odds | Player 3 | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 07:30 | 1 | Frankie Capan III | +378 | Todd Clements | +128 | Filippo Celli | +184 |
| 2 | 07:30 | 10 | Jason Scrivener | +179 | Jesper Svensson | +177 | Ben Schmidt | +258 |
| 3 | 07:40 | 1 | Luke List | +232 | Darius Van Driel | +118 | Junghwan Lee | +315 |
| 4 | 07:40 | 10 | Miguel Angel Jimenez | +249 | Danny Willett | +196 | Dan Bradbury | +167 |
| 5 | 07:50 | 1 | Ryan Peake | +262 | Ivan Cantero Gutierrez | +173 | Adri Arnaus | +180 |
| 6 | 07:50 | 10 | Paul Casey | +166 | Michael Hollick | +281 | Mikael Lindberg | +177 |
| 7 | 08:00 | 1 | Edoardo Molinari | +290 | Ricardo Gouveia | +217 | Oihan Guillamoundeguy | +134 |
| 8 | 08:00 | 10 | Sergio Garcia | +210 | Ignacio Elvira Mijares | +235 | Keita Nakajima | +164 |
| 9 | 08:10 | 1 | James Morrison | +226 | Jack Senior | +236 | Yuto Katsuragawa | +152 |
| 10 | 08:10 | 10 | Matt Wallace | +160 | Rasmus Hojgaard | +220 | Harry Hall | +230 |
| 11 | 08:20 | 1 | K.H. Lee | +246 | Renato Paratore | +173 | Rikuya Hoshino | +190 |
| 12 | 08:20 | 10 | Marco Penge | +197 | Nicolai Hojgaard | +178 | Casey Jarvis | +228 |
| 13 | 08:30 | 1 | Richard Sterne | +233 | Matteo Manassero | +140 | Dylan Frittelli | +252 |
| 14 | 08:30 | 10 | Erik Van Rooyen | +182 | Nicolai Von Dellingshausen | +244 | Kota Kaneko | +182 |
| 15 | 08:40 | 1 | Benjamin Rusch | +381 | Andreas Halvorsen | +203 | Hennie Du Plessis | +116 |
| 16 | 08:40 | 10 | Romain Langasque | +232 | Guido Migliozzi | +210 | Antoine Rozner | +165 |
| 17 | 08:50 | 1 | Lucas Bjerregaard | +136 | Andres Gallegos | +394 | Albin Bergstrom | +167 |
| 18 | 08:50 | 10 | Pablo Larrazabal | +184 | Connor Syme | +170 | John Daly II | +260 |
| 19 | 09:00 | 1 | Kiradech Aphibarnrat | +156 | David Law | +180 | Jeong Weon Ko | +298 |
| 20 | 09:00 | 10 | Matthew Baldwin | +207 | Sadom Kaewkanjana | +160 | Clement Charmasson | +246 |
| 21 | 09:10 | 1 | Benjamin Follet-Smith | +133 | Simon Forsstrom | +169 | Robert Foley | +403 |
| 22 | 09:10 | 10 | Daniel Gavins | +600 | Maximilian Steinlechner | +130 | Felix Mory | +137 |
| 23 | 09:20 | 1 | Benjamin Hebert | +159 | Yuvraj Singh Sandhu | +236 | Fred Biondi | +217 |
| 24 | 09:20 | 10 | Zander Lombard | +217 | Jack Yule | +364 | Davis Bryant | +113 |
| 25 | 09:30 | 1 | Nathan Kimsey | -103 | Mike Toorop | +356 | Rocco Repetto Taylor | +265 |
| 26 | 09:30 | 10 | Shubhankar Sharma | +190 | Yanhan Zhou | +106 | Mischa Candinas | +493 |
| 27 | 12:45 | 1 | Adrian Meronk | +221 | Niklas Norgaard | +199 | Ugo Coussaud | +182 |
| 28 | 12:45 | 10 | Quentin Debove | +224 | Sam Bairstow | -112 | Maximilien Sturdza | +510 |
| 29 | 12:55 | 1 | Jorge Campillo | +190 | Joakim Lagergren | +223 | Haotong Li | +189 |
| 30 | 12:55 | 10 | Eddie Pepperell | -122 | Nicola Gerhardsen | +456 | Ryggs Johnston | +270 |
| 31 | 13:05 | 1 | Adrien Saddier | +197 | Joel Girrbach | +259 | Sudarshan Yellamaraju | +160 |
| 32 | 13:05 | 10 | Daniel Van Tonder | +124 | Sean Crocker | +154 | Joshua Berry | +527 |
| 33 | 13:15 | 1 | Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | +202 | David Puig | +223 | Angel Ayora | +179 |
| 34 | 13:15 | 10 | Fabrizio Zanotti | +142 | Connor McKinney | +464 | Manuel Elvira | +144 |
| 35 | 13:25 | 1 | Patrick Reed | +182 | Daniel Hillier | +209 | Jayden Schaper | +210 |
| 36 | 13:25 | 10 | Joost Luiten | +137 | Niklas Lemke | +249 | Jordan Gumberg | +242 |
| 37 | 13:35 | 1 | Thriston Lawrence | +369 | Eugenio Chacarra | +204 | Ryan Gerard | +119 |
| 38 | 13:35 | 10 | Rafa Cabrera Bello | +211 | Adrian Otaegui | +161 | Yurav Premlall | +239 |
| 39 | 13:45 | 1 | Thomas Detry | +121 | Stefano Mazzoli | +344 | Martin Couvra | +210 |
| 40 | 13:45 | 10 | Jens Dantorp | +179 | Daniel Young | +268 | Brandon Robinson Thompson | +171 |
| 41 | 13:55 | 1 | Bernd Wiesberger | +187 | Alejandro Del Rey | +214 | Calum Hill | +200 |
| 42 | 13:55 | 10 | Louis De Jager | +339 | Jacques Kruyswijk | +133 | Jeremy Paul | +191 |
| 43 | 14:05 | 1 | Ashun Wu | +188 | Marcel Schneider | +218 | Angel Hidalgo | +195 |
| 44 | 14:05 | 10 | Francesco Laporta | +141 | Sebastian Soderberg | +181 | Yannik Paul | +337 |
| 45 | 14:15 | 1 | Marcel Siem | +303 | Marcus Helligkilde | +136 | Euan Walker | +205 |
| 46 | 14:15 | 10 | Alexander Levy | +186 | Gregorio De Leo | +139 | Jack Buchanan | +332 |
| 47 | 14:25 | 1 | Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez | +206 | Marcus Kinhult | +122 | David Micheluzzi | +346 |
| 48 | 14:25 | 10 | Brandon Stone | +160 | Daniel Rodrigues | +183 | Hugo Townsend | +280 |
| 49 | 14:35 | 1 | Robin Williams | +307 | Tobias Jonsson | +162 | Quim Vidal | +169 |
| 50 | 14:35 | 10 | Anthony Quayle | +141 | Anton Mostrom | +927 | Cameron Adam | +105 |
| 51 | 14:45 | 1 | Alfredo Garcia-Heredia | +180 | JC Ritchie | -116 | Ben Steinmann | +854 |
| 52 | 14:45 | 10 | Wenyi Ding | +209 | Ronan Kleu | +356 | Tom Vaillant | +118 |