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// BETTING PREVIEW - AUGUST 27-30
TOUR Championship
August 27-30, 2026 | Atlanta, Georgia
Cosmos Research from Cosmos Golf — the same brand as Golf in the Cosmos. Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club, Atlanta, Aug 27–30.
Wear it this week: the Point Cosmos Surfboard Tee from Cosmos Golf / Golf in the Cosmos, Season One.
⛅ Tournament Weather Forecast
Expect sunny skies with highs in the 91F range and light winds around 5 mph throughout the week. Some rain is possible, making for ideal scoring conditions.
🌬️ Wind by Day — Morning & Afternoon
| Day | 8 AM | 12 PM |
|---|---|---|
| Thu | ↑ 3 mph S G3 | ↑ 4 mph SSE G6 |
| Fri | ↑ 3 mph SW G6 | ↑ 3 mph SSW G4 |
| Sat | ↑ 4 mph SSE G6 | ↑ 4 mph SE G5 |
| Sun | ↑ 4 mph E G6 | ↑ 6 mph SE G6 |
🌊 Little AM/PM split in the forecast — wind stays fairly even across the draw.
🔒 Crew picks drop Wednesday night
Scottie Scheffler dominates the model at East Lake Golf Club with an 18.5% projected win probability, powered by elite rankings in both SG Approach (+1.08, #1) and SG Putting (+0.58, #1) — a rare combination that makes him the clear top choice in a 30-man field. Behind him, the model highlights Collin Morikawa (+2508) as a standout in the mid-tier: his +0.82 SG Approach (#3 in the field) pairs with the highest course fit score among serious contenders (+0.070), plus strong East Lake history including a runner-up finish in 2024. Among longer-priced options, Viktor Hovland (+2779) carries the third-best course history adjustment in the field (+0.081 strokes) thanks to his 2023 TOUR Championship victory, and his +0.041 course fit suggests his game still matches East Lake's demands — the model gives him a 37.6% top-10 probability despite sitting outside the top tier on the board.
Scheffler's Dual Dominance Is Unmatched
Scottie Scheffler ranks #1 in both SG Approach (+1.08) and SG Putting (+0.58) in this 30-man field — an extraordinary combination. His 18.5% model win probability is more than double any other player, backed by consistent East Lake results (1st in 2024, T4 in 2025, T6 in 2023).
Scottie Scheffler
Morikawa's Iron Play Fits East Lake
Collin Morikawa owns the field's highest course fit score (+0.070) among top contenders and ranks #3 in SG Approach (+0.82). His East Lake pedigree — 2nd in 2024, T6 in 2023 — combined with a 40.3% model top-10 probability makes him one of the strongest profiles in the mid-tier.
Collin Morikawa
Cantlay's Ball-Striking Profile Is Elite
Patrick Cantlay ranks #2 in the field in SG Approach (+0.93) and carries a strong +0.028 course fit. His T2 finish in 2025 and 5th-place finish in 2023 at East Lake Golf Club demonstrate consistent performance here. The model projects a 4.4% win probability, making him a compelling mid-tier option.
Patrick Cantlay
Hovland's Course History Stands Out
The 2023 TOUR Championship winner Viktor Hovland carries the third-highest course history adjustment in the field (+0.081 strokes) and a solid +0.041 course fit. The model projects a 37.6% top-10 probability — a strong profile for a player sitting at +2779 fair odds.
Viktor Hovland
Si Woo Kim: Quiet Ball-Striker Profile
Si Woo Kim ranks #4 in SG Approach (+0.77) and boasts the highest course fit score in the entire field at +0.073. The model gives him a 38.4% top-10 probability and +1.58 SG Total — a profile that slots him among the strongest outside the obvious favorites despite sitting at +3175 fair odds.
Si Woo Kim
Fleetwood Defends With Strong Course Fit
Defending champion Tommy Fleetwood carries a +0.060 course fit — the second-highest among top-10 favorites — and a solid +1.64 SG Total (#7). His 2025 victory and T6 in 2023 at East Lake Golf Club give him a 4.0% model win probability that reflects genuine comfort on this course.
Tommy Fleetwood
Schauffele's East Lake History Is Best
Xander Schauffele owns the largest course history adjustment in the entire field (+0.192 strokes), reflecting his runner-up in 2023 and T4 in 2024 at East Lake Golf Club. With an 8.4% model win probability and +1.86 SG Total (#3), his profile is rock-solid behind only Scheffler.
Xander Schauffele
Clark's Putting Could Be The Differentiator
Wyndham Clark ranks #3 in SG Putting (+0.54) and has the field's fifth-best course history adjustment (+0.045 strokes) at East Lake, where he finished 8th in 2024 and 3rd in 2023. His 38.5% model top-10 probability is strong despite a slightly negative course fit (-0.022).
Wyndham Clark
Matsuyama's Course History Is Concerning
Despite solid underlying numbers — +1.45 SG Total and +0.038 course fit — Hideki Matsuyama carries the worst course history adjustment in the highlighted group at -0.100 strokes. The model still gives him a 36.9% top-10 probability, but that negative history at East Lake Golf Club is a notable red flag.
Hideki Matsuyama
Tom Kim Tops Longshot Profiles Worth Watching
At +6183 fair odds, Tom Kim projects for a 26.6% top-10 probability with a respectable +1.18 SG Total. Fellow longshot Robert MacIntyre (+6086) similarly profiles well at +1.17 SG Total and 26.9% top-10 probability — both offer intriguing profiles for bettors seeking exposure deeper on the board.
Tom Kim Robert MacIntyre
📈 Biggest Climber · East Lake Golf Club
Akshay Bhatia
2024 26 → 2025 T13
▲13spots
🔥 Form Climbers · Last 3 Starts
J.J. Spaun
Rocket T50 → FedEx St. Jude Championship T34 → BMW Championship T22
▲28spots
Cameron Young
Wyndham Championship T61 → FedEx St. Jude Championship T39 → BMW Championship T37
▲24spots
Min Woo Lee
The Open T59 → FedEx St. Jude Championship T55 → BMW Championship T47
▲12spots
Complete Betting Board
| # | Player | Why They Could Win | Win Odds GolfData API |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Scottie Scheffler
USA - OWGR #1
FAVORITE
|
The FedEx St. Jude win capped a run that reads 1-2-T4-2-T4 across his last seven starts outside a Scottish Open MC, and the SG Total of +2.81 is in a different weight class than everyone else in this field. Add a T4-1-T6 record at East Lake and the model spits out an 18.5% win number at +439 — the only price in the field where the Win market is the sharpest of the three. Approach at +1.08 does the heavy lifting on a course that punishes iron misses. |
+439 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T4
20241
2023T6
Win+439
Top 5-107
Top 10-261
Recent Form
BMW Championship (Aug 2026): T12 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): 1 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): 2 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T4 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 2 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T4
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
18.5%
Top 10 Probability
72.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 2 |
Rory McIlroy
NIR - OWGR #2
CONTENDER
|
A solo 3rd at the BMW Championship washed out the ugly 66th at TPC Southwind, and East Lake has been a consistent home for him — 4th, T9, T23 in the last three trips, worth a +0.053 course history bump in the model. The engine here is +0.92 SG off the tee, which lets him overpower the par-5s and shorter par-4s. Top 10 at -122 (54.9%) is where the model plants its flag; the +1046 win price reflects a real 8.7% shot. |
+1046 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T23
2024T9
20234
Win+1046
Top 5+198
Top 10-122
Recent Form
BMW Championship (Aug 2026): 3 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): 66 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T40 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T7 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T32
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
8.7%
Top 10 Probability
54.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History+0.05
| |||
| 3 |
Xander Schauffele
USA - OWGR #11
CONTENDER
|
Nobody in the field has a bigger East Lake tailwind — a +0.192 course history adjustment built on a runner-up in 2023 and a T4 in 2024. The all-around profile (+0.83 OTT, +0.71 approach, positive everywhere) is exactly the mold this course rewards, and a runner-up at the Rocket and T7 at TPC Southwind say the game is trending. Model gives him 54.5% for a top 10 and 8.4% to win outright at +1088. |
+1088 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T4
20232
Win+1088
Top 5+206
Top 10-120
Recent Form
BMW Championship (Aug 2026): T26 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T7 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): 2 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T18 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T51 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T11
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
8.4%
Top 10 Probability
54.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.19
| |||
| 4 |
Ludvig Aberg
SWE - OWGR #17
CONTENDER
|
Six starts, zero missed cuts outside the Scottish, capped by T7-T16 in the Playoffs and a T9 at Portrush. The SG profile is stupidly balanced — +0.62 OTT, +0.72 approach, +0.29 putting — and at 25 he's already banked a T21 and a 16th here in two East Lake looks. The model prices him +1993 with a 4.78% win chance, but the more actionable line is the +134 top 10 backing a 42.7% projection. |
+1993 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T21
202416
2023NA
Win+1993
Top 5+338
Top 10+134
Recent Form
BMW Championship (Aug 2026): T16 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T7 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T9 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T55 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T17
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.8%
Top 10 Probability
42.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History-0.03
| |||
| 5 |
Patrick Cantlay
USA - OWGR #26
CONTENDER
|
Runner-up at the BMW Championship, and it's not a fluke — this is a guy with a solo 5th and a T2 in his last three East Lake appearances. The +0.93 approach number is top-tier in this field and fits a course that grades irons harshly, though the -0.043 course history adjustment tells you the model isn't fully sold on the past results repeating. At +2151 to win with 43.3% top-10 equity, the top-10 market at +131 is where his profile lands cleanest. |
+2151 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T2
2024T17
20235
Win+2151
Top 5+343
Top 10+131
Recent Form
BMW Championship (Aug 2026): 2 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T12 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T8 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T28 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.4%
Top 10 Probability
43.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History-0.04
| |||
| 6 |
Cameron Young
USA - OWGR #3
CONTENDER
|
A T4 in his East Lake debut last year is the entire course-history file, but it earned him a small positive nudge and pairs with the OWGR #3 tag that says the underlying game is real. The recent form has cooled — T37, T39, T61 in three of his last four — though the runner-up at Portrush proves the ceiling is still there. Model has him at 4.11% to win and 40.1% top 10; the +150 top-10 number is the tidiest expression of a boom-or-bust profile. |
+2332 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T4
2024NA
2023NA
Win+2332
Top 5+382
Top 10+150
Recent Form
BMW Championship (Aug 2026): T37 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T39 • Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T61 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T8 • Corales Puntacana Championship (Jul 2026): T34 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): 2 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T47 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.1%
Top 10 Probability
40.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 7 |
Tommy Fleetwood
ENG - OWGR #7
CONTENDER
|
Defending champion, and the model isn't ignoring it — course fit sits at +0.06, one of the highest marks in the field, on top of the 2025 title, a T6 in 2023, and a T4 at Portrush more recently. The balanced SG line (positive in every category, led by +0.59 approach and +0.35 around the green) fits a course where scrambling matters. At +2379 to win with a 41.9% top-10 projection, he's the classic 'back him everywhere' profile. |
+2379 |
Tournament History & Odds
20251
202420
2023T6
Win+2379
Top 5+369
Top 10+138
Recent Form
BMW Championship (Aug 2026): T47 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T7 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T4 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T13 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T11 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T11
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
4.0%
Top 10 Probability
41.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.06
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 8 |
Collin Morikawa
USA - OWGR #10
CONTENDER
|
The course fit adjustment of +0.07 is the highest of anyone in this eight-man group, and the East Lake résumé backs it — runner-up in 2024, T6 in 2023, and a T4 at the BMW Championship says the iron play is sharpening at the right time. Approach at +0.82 is elite; the around-the-green number at +0.03 is the thing keeping him out of the top tier. Model prints 3.84% to win and a 40.3% top 10, making the +148 top-10 number the honest bet. |
+2508 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T19
20242
2023T6
Win+2508
Top 5+389
Top 10+148
Recent Form
BMW Championship (Aug 2026): T4 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T52 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T18 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 3 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T17 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T29
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.8%
Top 10 Probability
40.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 9 |
Sam Burns
USA - OWGR #9
CONTENDER
|
A solo 2nd at the U.S. Open and a solo 3rd at The Open anchor a stretch of six straight top-30s, and East Lake has been kind — T7, T12, T9 across the last three trips. The full-bag profile is what you want here: +0.71 Approach, +0.57 Putting, no leaks. Model gives him a 40.1% top-10 shot at +150, which is the cleanest expression of a projection this balanced. |
+2508 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T7
2024T12
2023T9
Win+2508
Top 5+388
Top 10+150
Recent Form
BMW Championship (Aug 2026): T28 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T3 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): 3 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T12 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): 2 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T20
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.8%
Top 10 Probability
40.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.00
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 10 |
Wyndham Clark
USA - OWGR #5
CONTENDER
|
He won the BMW Championship. Before that, a T5 at the FedEx St. Jude and a U.S. Open title in June — the form line is legitimately elite despite two summer missed cuts at The Open and Rocket. Add a solo 3rd here in 2023 and a T8 in 2024 for a +0.045 course history bump, and the model prices him at 38.5% to crack the top 10. The short game (+0.34 ARG, +0.54 putting) travels anywhere. |
+2635 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
20248
20233
Win+2635
Top 5+411
Top 10+160
Recent Form
BMW Championship (Aug 2026): 1 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T5 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T13 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T5 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): 1 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T11
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.7%
Top 10 Probability
38.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 11 |
Viktor Hovland
NOR - OWGR #15
CONTENDER
|
Won this event in 2023 and the model still leans in hard — +0.081 course history is one of the biggest adjustments in the field, stacked on a +0.041 course fit. The Travelers win in June is the marquee result, but T33 at the BMW and a missed cut at The Open muddy the recent picture. Still, +0.73 Approach and +0.33 OTT is a Hovland stat line that plays anywhere, and 3.47% to win at +2779 reflects a real ceiling. |
+2779 |
Tournament History & Odds
202512
2024T12
20231
Win+2779
Top 5+432
Top 10+166
Recent Form
BMW Championship (Aug 2026): T33 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T19 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T13 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 1 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): 3
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.5%
Top 10 Probability
37.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.08
| |||
| 12 |
Chris Gotterup
USA - OWGR #8
CONTENDER
|
Winner at the John Deere and a T4 at the BMW Championship in his last handful of starts, plus a T10 in his East Lake debut in 2025. The engine is off-the-tee dominance — +0.66 SG/OTT leads this group — paired with a solid +0.50 Approach. Course fit reads slightly negative at -0.018, so the model isn't fully sold, but a 37.3% top-10 projection at +168 is the market that matches the profile best. |
+2831 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T10
2024NA
2023NA
Win+2831
Top 5+436
Top 10+168
Recent Form
BMW Championship (Aug 2026): T4 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T30 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T18 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T11 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): 1 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T30 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T43
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.4%
Top 10 Probability
37.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History+0.02
| |||
| 13 |
Matt Fitzpatrick
ENG - OWGR #4
CONTENDER
|
The full-field SG Total of +1.63 is the highest number in this group, and it's built on the boring-good combination of +0.67 Approach, +0.38 Around Green, and +0.39 Putting. Recent form backs it: a solo 4th at Travelers, runner-up at the RBC Canadian, a T3 at the Scottish. Only one East Lake start on file (T9 in 2023), so history is thin, but the model's 39.0% top-10 projection at +157 is where the profile lives. |
+2947 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023T9
Win+2947
Top 5+421
Top 10+157
Recent Form
BMW Championship (Aug 2026): T28 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T12 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T3 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 4 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): 22 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): 2
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.3%
Top 10 Probability
39.0%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 14 |
Si Woo Kim
KOR - OWGR #13
CONTENDER
|
Runner-up at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, T6 at The Open, T9 at the Scottish — the ball-striking has been genuinely elite for two months. The course fit adjustment of +0.073 is one of the highest in the field, driven by +0.77 Approach and +0.46 OTT. Putting sits at just +0.09, which caps the ceiling a bit, but a 38.4% top-10 chance at +160 is the right way to play a profile this tee-to-green heavy. |
+3175 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023T20
Win+3175
Top 5+440
Top 10+160
Recent Form
BMW Championship (Aug 2026): T33 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): 2 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T42 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T6 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T9 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T44 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.0%
Top 10 Probability
38.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.07
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 15 |
Hideki Matsuyama
JPN - OWGR #24
CONTENDER
|
Five straight top-30s including a T7 at the FedEx St. Jude, a T5 at the Rocket, and a T3 at the 3M — the irons (+0.71 Approach) are humming. Interestingly, the course history adjustment is -0.10, the worst in this group, dragged down by a 29th here in 2025 despite a T9 in 2024. Course fit at +0.038 partially offsets it, and the model still lands on 36.9% to top-10 at +171. |
+3226 |
Tournament History & Odds
202529
2024T9
2023NA
Win+3226
Top 5+472
Top 10+171
Recent Form
BMW Championship (Aug 2026): T28 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T7 • Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T7 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T5 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T3 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T14 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T14 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T65
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
3.0%
Top 10 Probability
36.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History-0.10
| |||
| 16 |
Russell Henley
USA - OWGR #6
CONTENDER
|
Three-for-three at East Lake with a T2, T4, and T14, which produces the biggest course history adjustment in this eight-man group at +0.102 — and a +0.079 course fit on top. The SG numbers are more pedestrian than the players priced ahead of him (+1.17 Total, +0.36 Approach), which is why the win number sits at +4381. But 32.4% to crack the top 10 at +208 is where the East Lake résumé actually shows up on the ticket. |
+4381 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T2
2024T4
2023T14
Win+4381
Top 5+576
Top 10+208
Recent Form
BMW Championship (Aug 2026): T12 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T30 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T20 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T9 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T12 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T65
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
2.2%
Top 10 Probability
32.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.08
Course History+0.10
| |||
| 17 |
Adam Scott
AUS - OWGR #51
VALUE
|
A T4 at East Lake in 2024 is the anchor here, and the recent Atlanta form makes the +263 to crack the top 10 the cleanest way to play him. The iron game is doing the heavy lifting at +0.62 SG Approach with a solid +0.47 off the tee, and he's stacked a T9 at The Open with a T12 at the FedEx St. Jude and a T16 at the BMW. At 45 with a 27.6% top-10 projection, the model isn't chasing a win at +5315 — it's telling you he grinds into contention. |
+5315 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024T4
2023NA
Win+5315
Top 5+732
Top 10+263
Recent Form
BMW Championship (Aug 2026): T16 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T12 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T9 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T66 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 65 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.9%
Top 10 Probability
27.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.00
| |||
| 18 |
Ryan Gerard
USA - OWGR #27
VALUE
|
One of the few players in this field with positive marks across all four strokes-gained categories — +0.48 OTT, +0.41 APP, +0.08 ARG, +0.31 putting — which is how a debutant with no East Lake history still gets a +0.029 course-fit bump. A T9 at The Open and a T8 at the Rocket Classic show the ceiling, and the model's 28.5% top-10 number ranks near the top of this longshot group. The +251 top-10 price fits the profile better than swinging at +5481. |
+5481 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+5481
Top 5+703
Top 10+251
Recent Form
BMW Championship (Aug 2026): T16 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T24 • Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): MC • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T8 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T9 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T26 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T44 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.8%
Top 10 Probability
28.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History—
| |||
| 19 |
Justin Rose
ENG - OWGR #14
VALUE
|
The course history adjustment of +0.049 is the biggest in this batch, built on a T21 debut in 2025 and a general reputation for showing up in big moments — he's OWGR #14 for a reason. Iron play at +0.58 SG Approach carries the bag, and a T11 at the U.S. Open reminds you the major-championship game is still there. At 46, the model has him at 1.69% to win and 25.4% top-10, which frames him as a place-market lean rather than an outright. |
+5811 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T21
2024NA
2023NA
Win+5811
Top 5+794
Top 10+294
Recent Form
BMW Championship (Aug 2026): T22 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T39 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T25 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T11 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.7%
Top 10 Probability
25.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History+0.05
| |||
| 20 |
Robert MacIntyre
SCO - OWGR #18
VALUE
|
Back-to-back T17s at East Lake in 2024 and 2025, and he arrives off a T7 at the BMW Championship and a T3 at the Genesis Scottish Open. The profile is balanced — +0.43 SG Putting leads the group, backed by +0.32 off the tee and +0.14 around the green — which is why the model projects a 26.9% top-10 despite a middling +0.28 approach number. The +272 top-10 is where the ticket makes sense; +6086 to win is asking a lot from a guy who hasn't cracked the top 15 here. |
+6086 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T17
2024T17
2023NA
Win+6086
Top 5+765
Top 10+272
Recent Form
BMW Championship (Aug 2026): T7 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): WD • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T28 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T3 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T10 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T39 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T15
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
26.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.01
| |||
| 21 |
Tom Kim
KOR - OWGR #29
VALUE
|
A win at the Genesis Scottish Open and a solo 3rd at the U.S. Open are the two headline results, and the +0.66 SG Approach is the second-best iron number in this batch. Course fit grades out at +0.036 despite only one East Lake start (T20 in 2023), and the recent T5 at Wyndham and T12 at the FedEx St. Jude keep the form line stable. The model's 26.6% top-10 is the sell here — +276 to place fits a well-rounded profile better than swinging at +6183. |
+6183 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023T20
Win+6183
Top 5+785
Top 10+276
Recent Form
BMW Championship (Aug 2026): T28 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T12 • Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T5 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T20 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): 1 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T46 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): 3 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T15
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.6%
Top 10 Probability
26.6%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History-0.00
| |||
| 22 |
Min Woo Lee
AUS - OWGR #31
VALUE
|
The runner-up at the Genesis Scottish Open is the only recent result that pops, and everything since — T47, T55, T59, T62 — has been middling. No East Lake history, a slightly negative course-fit adjustment at -0.011, and a 1.52% win projection make the outright ticket a hard sell at +6457. If you want exposure, the +0.44 OTT and +0.25 ARG at least give him a path to the 24.4% top-10 the model spits out. |
+6457 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+6457
Top 5+867
Top 10+310
Recent Form
BMW Championship (Aug 2026): T47 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T55 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T59 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): 2 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T62 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.5%
Top 10 Probability
24.4%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.01
Course History—
| |||
| 23 |
J.J. Spaun
USA - OWGR #16
VALUE
|
OWGR #16 and a +0.039 course-fit adjustment are the two things propping up the profile, because the form line — T22, T34, T50, T40, T44 — is quietly rough. The iron play at +0.58 SG Approach is legitimate, but a -0.04 putter and a T25 in his only East Lake start don't scream contender. At 1.19% to win with a 23.2% top-10 projection, this is the thinnest outright case in the batch; the +331 top-10 is the only market that makes any sense. |
+8315 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T25
2024NA
2023NA
Win+8315
Top 5+975
Top 10+331
Recent Form
BMW Championship (Aug 2026): T22 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T34 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T50 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T40 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T44 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T7 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.2%
Top 10 Probability
23.2%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 24 |
Gary Woodland
USA - OWGR #42
VALUE
|
A T4 at the BMW Championship is the reason he's in this field at all, and it's paired with a T7 at the U.S. Open and a T10 at the 3M Open — three legitimate results in his last six starts. The +0.56 SG OTT leads this group and the +0.04 course-history adjustment gives a small nudge despite no East Lake reps. That said, -0.19 around the green is a real leak and the 20.9% top-10 is the lowest number in this batch — +378 is the only market with a defensible edge. |
+8737 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+8737
Top 5+1086
Top 10+378
Recent Form
BMW Championship (Aug 2026): T4 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T42 • 3M Open (Jul 2026): T10 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): 71 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T7
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
20.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.01
Course History+0.04
| |||
| 25 |
Alex Smalley
USA - OWGR #46
VALUE
|
A T7 at the Wyndham followed by T24-T16 through the FedEx playoffs is the kind of quiet, steady climb that gets a debutant onto East Lake without much fanfare. The profile is balanced across the board — +0.54 SG Approach leading a +0.96 SG Total, with nothing bleeding — and the model translates that into a 21.5% top-10 shot at +364. No history here is a real unknown, but at OWGR #46 with a positive course-fit read, the top-10 ticket is where the projection lives, not the outright. |
+9202 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9202
Top 5+1067
Top 10+364
Recent Form
BMW Championship (Aug 2026): T16 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T24 • Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T7 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T53 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T47 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
21.5%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.03
Course History—
| |||
| 26 |
Kristoffer Reitan
NOR - OWGR #30
VALUE
|
Debut at East Lake, OWGR #30, and a game built off the tee — +0.48 SG OTT paces this skill profile, with the putter (+0.27) doing more work than the irons (+0.17). Form is genuinely mixed: T18 at The Open and T22 at the BMW bracket a missed cut at the Scottish and a T58 at St. Jude. The model gives him a 19.3% top-10 chance at +419 and essentially zero course-fit or history adjustment, so this is a pure current-form read with no East Lake tape to lean on. |
+9364 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9364
Top 5+1207
Top 10+419
Recent Form
BMW Championship (Aug 2026): T22 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T58 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T18 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T22 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): MC • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T60
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.1%
Top 10 Probability
19.3%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.00
Course History—
| |||
| 27 |
Jacob Bridgeman
USA - OWGR #28
VALUE
|
Solo 9th at the BMW Championship is the headline result, and it's not a one-week blip — five made cuts in his last eight with a T11 at the RBC Canadian mixed in. The putter is doing heavy lifting (+0.47 SG) on top of solid approach (+0.26), and his T27 at East Lake in 2025 gives him actual reps here, even if the course history adjustment reads slightly negative at -0.023. At +384 to crack the top 10 with a 20.7% model probability, the shorter-market ticket is where this profile earns its keep. |
+9609 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T27
2024NA
2023NA
Win+9609
Top 5+1158
Top 10+384
Recent Form
BMW Championship (Aug 2026): 9 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T30 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): T26 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T28 • John Deere Classic (Jul 2026): T26 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T47 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T39 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T11
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
1.0%
Top 10 Probability
20.7%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.02
Course History-0.02
| |||
| 28 |
Alex Fitzpatrick
ENG - OWGR #68
VALUE
|
The +0.041 course-fit adjustment is the largest positive fit number in this batch, and it's backed by a T9 in his only East Lake appearance in 2023. The problem is everything since June — T44 at the BMW, T61s at St. Jude and Wyndham, T71 at The Open — with putting bleeding at -0.18 SG. Model gives him a 17.8% top-10 shot at +462, and the fit-plus-history combo is really the only thing keeping him interesting; the current form line doesn't. |
+14118 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023T9
Win+14118
Top 5+1421
Top 10+462
Recent Form
BMW Championship (Aug 2026): T44 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T61 • Wyndham Championship (Aug 2026): T61 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): T71 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T7 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T20
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.7%
Top 10 Probability
17.8%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj+0.04
Course History—
| |||
| 29 |
Akshay Bhatia
USA - OWGR #33
LONGSHOT
|
Two East Lake starts, two respectable finishes: T13 in 2025 and 26th in 2024, which is more course knowledge than most of this longshot group can claim. But the driver is a genuine problem at -0.32 SG OTT, and a missed cut at The Open plus 68th at St. Jude drag on an otherwise decent T12 at the BMW and T5 at the Travelers. Model lands at 15.1% for the top 10 at +560, and with a slightly negative fit read, the win price of +18419 is essentially a formality. |
+18419 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025T13
202426
2023NA
Win+18419
Top 5+1762
Top 10+560
Recent Form
BMW Championship (Aug 2026): T12 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): 68 • Rocket Classic (Jul 2026): MC • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): MC • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T5 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T17
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.5%
Top 10 Probability
15.1%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.02
Course History-0.01
| |||
| 30 |
Ryan Fox
NZL - OWGR #25
LONGSHOT
|
Open Championship winner in July, and that alone justifies his presence here — but the profile since has cratered, with T30 at the Scottish, T58 at St. Jude, and T47 at the BMW. SG Total sits at just +0.49, the weakest in this batch, and the course-fit adjustment reads -0.035 with zero East Lake history to soften it. Model puts him at 11.9% for the top 10 at +739, which is the lowest top-10 probability of anyone here. Hard to build a case beyond the Claret Jug. |
+26216 |
Tournament History & Odds
2025NA
2024NA
2023NA
Win+26216
Top 5+2412
Top 10+739
Recent Form
BMW Championship (Aug 2026): T47 • FedEx St. Jude Championship (Aug 2026): T58 • The Open Championship (Jul 2026): 1 • Genesis Scottish Open (Jul 2026): T30 • Travelers Championship (Jun 2026): T66 • U.S. Open (Jun 2026): T23 • RBC Canadian Open (Jun 2026): T8
Strokes Gained (2025-26 PGA TOUR Season)
Model Predictions
Win Probability
0.4%
Top 10 Probability
11.9%
Course Fit
Skill Fit Adj-0.04
Course History—
| |||
Round 1 — Head-to-Head Pairings
| Grp | Tee Time | Hole | Player 1 | Odds | Player 2 | Odds | Tie | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:00 | 1 | Ryan Fox | +173 | Tom Kim | -111 | Tie | +837 |
| 2 | 11:12 | 1 | Justin Rose | +130 | Adam Scott | +118 | Tie | +851 |
| 3 | 11:24 | 1 | Viktor Hovland | +102 | Robert MacIntyre | +150 | Tie | +847 |
| 4 | 11:36 | 1 | Alex Smalley | +116 | Alex Fitzpatrick | +131 | Tie | +849 |
| 5 | 11:48 | 1 | Min Woo Lee | +122 | J.J. Spaun | +125 | Tie | +840 |
| 6 | 12:06 | 1 | Patrick Cantlay | -124 | Kristoffer Reitan | +187 | Tie | +925 |
| 7 | 12:18 | 1 | Gary Woodland | +146 | Ryan Gerard | +104 | Tie | +858 |
| 8 | 12:30 | 1 | Hideki Matsuyama | -124 | Akshay Bhatia | +190 | Tie | +874 |
| 9 | 12:42 | 1 | Russell Henley | +100 | Jacob Bridgeman | +154 | Tie | +834 |
| 10 | 12:54 | 1 | Rory McIlroy | +122 | Xander Schauffele | +126 | Tie | +834 |
| 11 | 13:12 | 1 | Tommy Fleetwood | +123 | Ludvig Aberg | +124 | Tie | +852 |
| 12 | 13:24 | 1 | Sam Burns | +125 | Collin Morikawa | +123 | Tie | +832 |
| 13 | 13:36 | 1 | Si Woo Kim | +120 | Chris Gotterup | +127 | Tie | +853 |
| 14 | 13:48 | 1 | Wyndham Clark | +125 | Cameron Young | +122 | Tie | +854 |
| 15 | 14:00 | 1 | Matt Fitzpatrick | +211 | Scottie Scheffler | -136 | Tie | +883 |
Who writes this preview? Cosmos Research is the weekly tournament desk of Cosmos Golf, the same brand as the Golf in the Cosmos podcast.
Where is the merch? Season One is on golfinthecosmos.com. This week’s pick is the Point Cosmos Surfboard Tee.